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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, January 07, 2007

2007 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Devil Rays


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Rocco Baldelli       cf 25 .299 .342 .476 117 452 71 135 27 4 15 61 26 80 10 3
Carl Crawford*        lf 25 .306 .344 .464 157 638 100 195 28 14 15 71 37 81 49 10
Akinori Iwamura*      3b 28 .288 .350 .453 139 514 46 148 21 2 20 61 49 144 5 2
Ty Wigginton         1b 29 .265 .331 .476 121 422 57 112 24 1 21 65 40 91 4 2
Jonny Gomes         rf 26 .247 .345 .457 134 449 70 111 24 2 22 67 61 134 6 4
Elijah Dukes#        lf 23 .262 .340 .439 109 378 59 99 19 3 14 54 42 67 9 6
Delmon Young         rf 21 .288 .321 .451 130 503 67 145 27 5 15 66 21 92 18 8
Hee Seop Choi*        1b 28 .230 .341 .411 106 287 37 66 14 1 12 39 46 76 1 1
Jorge Cantu         2b 25 .267 .305 .461 130 499 60 133 33 2 20 83 24 91 1 1
Evan Longoria         3b 21 .264 .313 .437 125 451 40 119 19 1 19 66 30 90 7 3
Ben Zobrist#        ss 26 .269 .353 .372 140 494 61 133 29 5 4 40 62 73 9 6
B.J. Upton           ss 22 .258 .340 .371 154 558 82 144 24 3 11 47 68 131 35 14
Brendan Harris       3b 26 .251 .312 .414 127 418 60 105 24 1 14 57 32 80 3 2
Greg Norton#        rf 34 .245 .323 .398 84 261 37 64 10 0 10 29 28 61 1 2
Wes Bankston         3b 23 .260 .311 .388 103 361 37 94 17 1 9 40 25 83 2 2
Dustan Mohr         rf 31 .217 .311 .395 105 281 32 61 13 2 11 30 37 102 1 2
Shawn Riggans         c   26 .260 .304 .379 111 377 30 98 21 0 8 39 22 88 1 1
Dioner Navarro#      c   23 .249 .323 .341 116 393 41 98 15 0 7 33 42 84 2 1
Damon Hollins         lf 33 .241 .292 .394 105 307 35 74 17 0 10 35 21 60 4 2
Joel Guzman         lf 22 .244 .295 .378 127 434 42 106 22 0 12 51 30 107 5 3
Rodney Nye           3b 30 .238 .303 .329 98 319 31 76 18 1 3 30 27 68 1 1
Josh Paul           c   32 .243 .316 .316 61 136 14 33 7 0 1   8 14 35 1 1
Elliot Johnson#      2b 23 .244 .293 .361 133 512 55 125 17 5 11 37 35 133 22 14
Tomas Perez#        3b 33 .236 .291 .351 100 208 23 49 13 1 3 22 16 43 0 1
John Jaso*          c   23 .244 .286 .347 105 360 40 88 19 0 6 31 20 54 1 2
Jorge Velandia       ss 32 .242 .291 .333 120 405 43 98 20 1 5 37 27 76 5 2
Reid Brignac*        ss 21 .233 .274 .357 136 510 58 119 23 2 12 49 25 139 7 5
Yamid Haad           c   29 .231 .269 .359 75 234 26 54 12 0 6 23 11 44 1 1
Luis Ordaz           2b 31 .231 .254 .321 70 234 23 54 14 2 1 17   5 36 2 1
Brent Butler         3b 29 .230 .263 .301 103 352 26 81 17 1 2 23 16 40 1 3
Kevin Cash           c   29 .187 .246 .268 69 209 16 39 8 0 3 16 14 74 0 1
Ryan Knox           lf 30 .187 .243 .263 86 262 24 49 11 0 3 15 17 86 11 6
Jason Pridie*        cf 23 .197 .240 .241 148 493 29 97 9 2 3 23 28 105 12 6

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Carl Crawford

Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .319 .364 .502 162 658 116 210 33 18 17 87 46 77 60 9
Mean         .306 .344 .464 157 638 100 195 28 14 15 71 37 80 49 10            
Pessimistic (15%) .281 .316 .404 128 520 70 146 19 9 9 46 26 75 32 9

Top Near-Age Comps: Lou Brock, Willie Davis

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Scott Kazmir*        23   3.57 12   8 30 30   179.0 165   71 15   75 176
Al Reyes             37   3.84   3   3 64   1   61.0   53   26   9   21   66
Dan Miceli           36   3.88   4   3 50   0   51.0   48   22   6   20   49
Ruddy Lugo           27   3.94   3   2 61   0   80.0   78   35   4   36   49
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———- 4.18———————————————————————-
Chad Orvella         26   4.25   5   4 53   0   72.0   72   34   8   31   63
Jeff Ridgway*        26   4.50   3   4 45   0   60.0   56   30   6   33   56
Juan Salas           28   4.50   2   3 56   0   72.0   69   36   9   35   71
J.P. Howell*          24   4.53   7   9 26 26   139.0 142   70 14   60 111
Jay Marshall*        24   4.56   2   2 63   0   73.0   82   37   9   21   35
Stephen Andrade       29   4.58   2   2 36   0   57.0   54   29   6   28   50
Shawn Camp           31   4.69   5   6 61   3   96.0 109   50 13   26   66
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER————4.70———————————————————————-
Jamie Shields         25   4.70   9 10 31 31   184.0 211   96 28   46 136
Andrew Sonnanstine     24   4.78 11 14 25 25   194.0 213 103 31   60 119
Tyler Walker         31   4.81   3   5 54   0   58.0   63   31   8   22   46
Tim Corcoran         29   4.81   6   8 39 11   101.0 106   54 13   44   69
Brian Meadows         31   4.94   3   4 59   0   71.0   83   39 11   18   41
Justin Miller         29   4.95   3   4 25 12   80.0   85   44 12   33   64
Jason Hammel         24   4.98   8 11 32 32   177.0 194   98 25   65 126
Jeff Niemann         24   5.00   4   6 17 16   81.0   81   45 12   40   65
Brian Stokes         27   5.10   5   9 26 23   136.0 153   77 18   54   82
Shinji Mori           32   5.14   2   4 47   0   56.0   52   32   8   31   53
Jim Magrane           28   5.17   7 12 26 22   148.0 171   85 20   52   74
Chad Harville         30   5.30   1   2 49   1   56.0   60   33   7   29   40
Jon Switzer*          27   5.31   3   5 48   7   78.0   87   46 10   38   47
Casey Fossum*        29   5.31   8 10 29 26   156.0 169   92 25   65 127
Jae Wong Seo         30   5.43   5   8 30 23   141.0 167   85 25   50   80
Mitch Talbot         23   5.53   7 13 31 30   179.0 212 110 28   65 107
Seth McClung         26   5.72   7 13 50 18   129.0 138   82 19   71   92
Doug Waechter         26   5.79   6 12 29 26   146.0 176   94 27   47   75
Chris Seddon*        23   5.89   7 14 31 31   171.0 203 112 33   66 104
James Houser*        22   5.94   6 12 30 29   162.0 191 107 37   54 109
Edwin Jackson         23   6.32   5 13 38 21   131.0 159   92 23   64   80
Chuck Tiffany*        22   6.38   5 13 23 22   117.0 136   83 32   46 103
Marcos Carvajal       22   6.40   1   3 49   0   83.0   93   59 16   49   61

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Scott Kazmir
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  2.88 16   8 33 33 203 171   65 12   76 209
Mean           3.57 12   8 30 30 179 165   71 15   75 176
Pessimistic (15%)  4.34   8   9 25 25 145 145   70 16   66 136

Top Near-Age Comps:  Vida Blue, Johnny Antonelli

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 07, 2007 at 05:02 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Sparkles Peterson Posted: January 07, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2275819)
It's tempting to talk about how bad this offense is, but it's got plenty of depth. The problem is that they're basically Kazmir and about 20 "good" players. If Young or Longoria develops into a stud, this could be a really solid Indians-like offense.
   2. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: January 07, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2275850)
Isn't McClung closing?
   3. Walt Davis Posted: January 07, 2007 at 07:18 PM (#2275881)
Interesting that Baldelli now projects equal or better than Crawford. How does ZIPS handle his missing 2005? Give extra weight to 2006?

The offense has pretty good power but lousy on-base skills.

You know, I've never asked -- how are batters sorted? It's not OBP, SLG or OPS. Whatever it's sorted by doesn't appear in the table ... and that might be nice since it would allow you to put in a "league average" line for them too. I assume the "league average" lines are within the run environment you're using for projections.

Which is just a whiny way of saying "ooh, nice addition, Dan. You rock!"
   4. greenback likes millwall Posted: January 07, 2007 at 07:31 PM (#2275886)
It looks like it's sorted by RC/27 or something similar.
   5. Darren Posted: January 07, 2007 at 08:11 PM (#2275900)
In the HBT annual, Gassko pegs Crawford as one of the most likely players to break out in 07. He and Baldelli are a nice pair of OF to have, that's for sure.
   6. cardsfanboy Posted: January 07, 2007 at 08:48 PM (#2275917)
Iwamura with a .803 ops? if so this is a pretty good offensive team.

More than likely an outfield of Baldelli, Crawford, Gomes(dh) Young(probably better than projected)
infield of Wiggington, Upton, Iwamura, and Cantu is a nice base to build around, mind you that infield defense is going to be atrocious, better hope for fly ball pitchers that can keep it in the stadium.

Who is going to play where though? Anyone think that there is a slim chance that the D-rays will pursue a big name free agent pitcher next season(Santana?)
   7. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 07, 2007 at 09:18 PM (#2275934)
Gomes should beat that power projection considerably with his shoulder healthy again.
   8. philistine Posted: January 07, 2007 at 10:49 PM (#2275960)
Anyone else noticed how catchers so often have short names? If you saw the crossword clue: "Lousy MLB catcher (4,4)" there would be an awful lot of possible answers. I can't think of a good one who's (4,4) They can be a bit better when they're (5,4) or (4,5) and there's a very good one who's (3,5), but if you're a catcher and your name is spelt (4,4), you do well to do what Mr Zaun does and use an irregular spelling.
   9. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 07, 2007 at 10:57 PM (#2275963)
That projection is awfully tough on Jae Seo. He's got a career 102 ERA+ even with last season. I thought he'd project a little bit better than that.
   10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 07, 2007 at 11:00 PM (#2275966)
That pitching doesn't look as bad as I thought it would be. Way more sub 5.00 ERAs than the Royals. If this projection plays out, the D-Rays could find themselves out of the cellar.

Anyone else noticed how catchers so often have short names?

Make way for Jarrod Saltamacchia
   11. Hal Chase Headley Lamarr Hoyt Wilhelm (ACE1242) Posted: January 07, 2007 at 11:25 PM (#2275975)
Make way for Jarrod Saltamacchia

Even better than you represent him: that's Saltalamacchia
   12. Frisco Cali Posted: January 08, 2007 at 12:55 AM (#2276006)
Is Joel Guzman one of those guys that everybody forgets about, until he's about 26 when he puts up about 5 decent years?
   13. pweber Posted: January 08, 2007 at 02:26 AM (#2276039)
So...how great was that Joey Gathright trade? The D-Rays look to win that trade big time.
   14. PitViper Posted: January 08, 2007 at 02:56 AM (#2276050)
Seems like just yesterday that Edwin Jackson was a top prospect. As recently as 2005, Sickels had him as the #3 pitching prospect in baseball (behind Greinke & Wagner). I blame Tommy Lasorda. Why? No reason, I just think Tommy Lasorda should be blamed for every bad thing in the universe.
   15. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 08, 2007 at 03:14 AM (#2276058)
When in doubt, I always blame Tommy Lasorda.

I'm kind of surprised to see that ZiPS doesn't see more upside in Carl Crawford. It's certainly counter to how you hear him spoken of in the media.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: January 08, 2007 at 07:27 AM (#2276142)
As recently as 2005, Sickels had him as the #3 pitching prospect in baseball (behind Greinke & Wagner). I blame Tommy Lasorda.

Maybe you should blame Sickels. :-) Not a great top 3 as of today.
   17. 1k5v3L Posted: January 08, 2007 at 07:34 AM (#2276143)
It's eerie to see three former Dodgers prospects, two of them very highly thought of, at the very bottom of the list. Throw in Guzman, Navarro and Choi, and you've got the core of young cheap players that DePo was going to use to build the next great blue empire. Good thing LaSorda ran him out of LA so Colletti could stop the nonsense.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: January 08, 2007 at 07:36 AM (#2276144)
Well, by gum, how about slapping RC/27 into the table? :-)
   19. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: January 08, 2007 at 09:33 AM (#2276164)
I can't think of a good one who's (4,4)

Tony Pena?
   20. Mike Green Posted: January 08, 2007 at 03:57 PM (#2276214)
I'll take the over on Crawford, the under on Baldelli, and the better on Niemann.

It's hard as hell to objectively predict pitchers and Niemann is a classic illustration. You've got the limited performance data, the health concerns, the high K rate and the size. I don't know if ZiPS accounts for pitcher size, but David Gassko's research (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/does-size-matter-part-5/) suggests that pitchers of extreme size (hold the Ron Jeremy jokes please) strike out more and allow fewer runs.
   21. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 08, 2007 at 04:19 PM (#2276230)
So...how great was that Joey Gathright trade? The D-Rays look to win that trade big time.

I'd be willing to bet JP Howell puts up a better ERA than Gilga Meche.
   22. philistine Posted: January 08, 2007 at 04:31 PM (#2276238)
Tony Pena?

True. I was thinking of players around today like Paul Bako, Toby Hall, Josh Paul, Mike Rose, John Buck, John Jaso. It seemed like there were more than that. Josh Bard could be the exception - he looks pretty good.

Dave Ross seems to be listed as David now. Maybe that's why he started hitting again.
   23. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 08, 2007 at 06:46 PM (#2276337)
Is height good or bad for BABIP? Do tall pitchers get more line drives or are short pitchers more agile?
   24. shaftr Posted: January 08, 2007 at 07:41 PM (#2276369)
As a white sox fan, I'd absolutely love to have either Baldelli or Crawford replace World Series Hero Scott Podsednik.
   25. Nobody ##### with DeJesus Posted: January 08, 2007 at 08:40 PM (#2276405)
Who the heck is Andrew Sonnanstine?
   26. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: January 08, 2007 at 08:44 PM (#2276409)
Andrew Sonnanstine has been named the Devil Rays' Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

The club's 13th round pick in 2004, Sonnanstine set a new organizational single-season record by winning 15 games for Double-A Montgomery this year.
Source: Tampa Tribune

TEAM: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6'3' / 185
DOB: 3/18/1983
AGE: 23
BATS/THROWS: Left / Right
   27. CoastalFan Posted: January 09, 2007 at 01:36 AM (#2276567)
Ben Zobrist will make the Astros miss him this year, and for several more. Yeah, Everett's got a great glove, and well, there's that glove thing. Is Jennings a ground ball of fly ball guy?
   28. stealfirstbase Posted: January 09, 2007 at 07:40 AM (#2276688)
As a white sox fan, I'd absolutely love to have either Baldelli or Crawford replace World Series Hero Scott Podsednik.

As would I. Heck, I'd of given up McCarthy to get them either of them, whichever the D-Rays would be willing to give up. Today, I'd give up Danks, Masset and Rasner (sp?) in a heartbeat to get one of them. Something tells me it would take more, though. I'd toss in Gio Gonzalez to get a deal done, or Gavin Floyd or Andrew Sisco if they want to go for some upside. If they wanted a first base prospect instead of one of the pitchers I'd offer them Fields. Heck, I'd be willing to mix and match any and all of the guys I've listed to get Dukes thrown into the deal, even if he is a headcase. Anything not to see Podsednik in left field next year with no depth behind him and no possibility of replacement.

Love the Baldelli and Crawford projections, and Dukes looks pretty good, too.

Is it me, or does the D-Ray organization produce more than its share of headcases?
   29. stealfirstbase Posted: January 09, 2007 at 07:42 AM (#2276689)
Oh yeah, Zobrist's got some OBP skills for a defense-first shortstop. At least, that's what I heard he was. He could be a good one, their long term SS or 2B, depending of course on what greater talents like Upton and Breignac do. BTW, awful projection for Breignac.
   30. Mike Green Posted: January 09, 2007 at 03:55 PM (#2276760)
Incidentally, if you add up the projections for the potential starting pitchers, Kazmir, Shields, Howell, Sonnanstine, Hammel and Niemann, you've got better than league average pitching. The pen will, of course give that back, unless some of the surplus offensive talent is traded for pitching help.

With a club this young, there is a fair bit of variability in what can be expected both offensively and defensively.
   31. Fred Garvin is dead and Joe Biden is alive Posted: January 09, 2007 at 04:44 PM (#2276782)
Heck, I'd of given up McCarthy to get them either of them, whichever the D-Rays would be willing to give up. Today, I'd give up Danks, Masset and Rasner (sp?) in a heartbeat to get one of them. Something tells me it would take more, though.

Everytime we have a Rays thread, someone talks about how they like to have Crawford or Baldelli on their team in return for prospects.

Then everytime I post that Andrew Friedman has said on several occasions that he's not going to deal either of them unless they get established MLB talent in return that could improve them both now and in the future. IOW, he'll have to be blown away and prospects aren't going to do it.

I don't think there is anyone on the White Sox roster who the Rays would want for Crawford or Baldelli. Not that the White Sox aren't a very good team, but most of their talent is fairly old. Maybe Garland or Buehrle, but Buehrle is going into his contract year and Garland will be doing so the following year (and will earn $22mm over that time).
   32. guru4u Posted: January 10, 2007 at 03:40 PM (#2277551)
Gomes should beat that power projection considerably with his shoulder healthy again.


I was thinking the exact same thing. Zips did not factor in his injury last year. If healthy, Gomes should post a stat line closer to Francoeur (with a better OBP). Something like .260/30/90/80/5. His stats really declined sharply after his shoulder started bothering him last year.
   33. jyjjy Posted: January 10, 2007 at 08:58 PM (#2277840)
His stats really declined sharply after his shoulder started bothering him last year.

And my fantasy teams wept...

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