Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Rocco Baldelli cf 25 .299 .342 .476 117 452 71 135 27 4 15 61 26 80 10 3
Carl Crawford* lf 25 .306 .344 .464 157 638 100 195 28 14 15 71 37 81 49 10
Akinori Iwamura* 3b 28 .288 .350 .453 139 514 46 148 21 2 20 61 49 144 5 2
Ty Wigginton 1b 29 .265 .331 .476 121 422 57 112 24 1 21 65 40 91 4 2
Jonny Gomes rf 26 .247 .345 .457 134 449 70 111 24 2 22 67 61 134 6 4
Elijah Dukes# lf 23 .262 .340 .439 109 378 59 99 19 3 14 54 42 67 9 6
Delmon Young rf 21 .288 .321 .451 130 503 67 145 27 5 15 66 21 92 18 8
Hee Seop Choi* 1b 28 .230 .341 .411 106 287 37 66 14 1 12 39 46 76 1 1
Jorge Cantu 2b 25 .267 .305 .461 130 499 60 133 33 2 20 83 24 91 1 1
Evan Longoria 3b 21 .264 .313 .437 125 451 40 119 19 1 19 66 30 90 7 3
Ben Zobrist# ss 26 .269 .353 .372 140 494 61 133 29 5 4 40 62 73 9 6
B.J. Upton ss 22 .258 .340 .371 154 558 82 144 24 3 11 47 68 131 35 14
Brendan Harris 3b 26 .251 .312 .414 127 418 60 105 24 1 14 57 32 80 3 2
Greg Norton# rf 34 .245 .323 .398 84 261 37 64 10 0 10 29 28 61 1 2
Wes Bankston 3b 23 .260 .311 .388 103 361 37 94 17 1 9 40 25 83 2 2
Dustan Mohr rf 31 .217 .311 .395 105 281 32 61 13 2 11 30 37 102 1 2
Shawn Riggans c 26 .260 .304 .379 111 377 30 98 21 0 8 39 22 88 1 1
Dioner Navarro# c 23 .249 .323 .341 116 393 41 98 15 0 7 33 42 84 2 1
Damon Hollins lf 33 .241 .292 .394 105 307 35 74 17 0 10 35 21 60 4 2
Joel Guzman lf 22 .244 .295 .378 127 434 42 106 22 0 12 51 30 107 5 3
Rodney Nye 3b 30 .238 .303 .329 98 319 31 76 18 1 3 30 27 68 1 1
Josh Paul c 32 .243 .316 .316 61 136 14 33 7 0 1 8 14 35 1 1
Elliot Johnson# 2b 23 .244 .293 .361 133 512 55 125 17 5 11 37 35 133 22 14
Tomas Perez# 3b 33 .236 .291 .351 100 208 23 49 13 1 3 22 16 43 0 1
John Jaso* c 23 .244 .286 .347 105 360 40 88 19 0 6 31 20 54 1 2
Jorge Velandia ss 32 .242 .291 .333 120 405 43 98 20 1 5 37 27 76 5 2
Reid Brignac* ss 21 .233 .274 .357 136 510 58 119 23 2 12 49 25 139 7 5
Yamid Haad c 29 .231 .269 .359 75 234 26 54 12 0 6 23 11 44 1 1
Luis Ordaz 2b 31 .231 .254 .321 70 234 23 54 14 2 1 17 5 36 2 1
Brent Butler 3b 29 .230 .263 .301 103 352 26 81 17 1 2 23 16 40 1 3
Kevin Cash c 29 .187 .246 .268 69 209 16 39 8 0 3 16 14 74 0 1
Ryan Knox lf 30 .187 .243 .263 86 262 24 49 11 0 3 15 17 86 11 6
Jason Pridie* cf 23 .197 .240 .241 148 493 29 97 9 2 3 23 28 105 12 6
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Carl Crawford
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .319 .364 .502 162 658 116 210 33 18 17 87 46 77 60 9
Mean .306 .344 .464 157 638 100 195 28 14 15 71 37 80 49 10
Pessimistic (15%) .281 .316 .404 128 520 70 146 19 9 9 46 26 75 32 9
Top Near-Age Comps: Lou Brock, Willie Davis
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Scott Kazmir* 23 3.57 12 8 30 30 179.0 165 71 15 75 176
Al Reyes 37 3.84 3 3 64 1 61.0 53 26 9 21 66
Dan Miceli 36 3.88 4 3 50 0 51.0 48 22 6 20 49
Ruddy Lugo 27 3.94 3 2 61 0 80.0 78 35 4 36 49
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———- 4.18———————————————————————-
Chad Orvella 26 4.25 5 4 53 0 72.0 72 34 8 31 63
Jeff Ridgway* 26 4.50 3 4 45 0 60.0 56 30 6 33 56
Juan Salas 28 4.50 2 3 56 0 72.0 69 36 9 35 71
J.P. Howell* 24 4.53 7 9 26 26 139.0 142 70 14 60 111
Jay Marshall* 24 4.56 2 2 63 0 73.0 82 37 9 21 35
Stephen Andrade 29 4.58 2 2 36 0 57.0 54 29 6 28 50
Shawn Camp 31 4.69 5 6 61 3 96.0 109 50 13 26 66
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER————4.70———————————————————————-
Jamie Shields 25 4.70 9 10 31 31 184.0 211 96 28 46 136
Andrew Sonnanstine 24 4.78 11 14 25 25 194.0 213 103 31 60 119
Tyler Walker 31 4.81 3 5 54 0 58.0 63 31 8 22 46
Tim Corcoran 29 4.81 6 8 39 11 101.0 106 54 13 44 69
Brian Meadows 31 4.94 3 4 59 0 71.0 83 39 11 18 41
Justin Miller 29 4.95 3 4 25 12 80.0 85 44 12 33 64
Jason Hammel 24 4.98 8 11 32 32 177.0 194 98 25 65 126
Jeff Niemann 24 5.00 4 6 17 16 81.0 81 45 12 40 65
Brian Stokes 27 5.10 5 9 26 23 136.0 153 77 18 54 82
Shinji Mori 32 5.14 2 4 47 0 56.0 52 32 8 31 53
Jim Magrane 28 5.17 7 12 26 22 148.0 171 85 20 52 74
Chad Harville 30 5.30 1 2 49 1 56.0 60 33 7 29 40
Jon Switzer* 27 5.31 3 5 48 7 78.0 87 46 10 38 47
Casey Fossum* 29 5.31 8 10 29 26 156.0 169 92 25 65 127
Jae Wong Seo 30 5.43 5 8 30 23 141.0 167 85 25 50 80
Mitch Talbot 23 5.53 7 13 31 30 179.0 212 110 28 65 107
Seth McClung 26 5.72 7 13 50 18 129.0 138 82 19 71 92
Doug Waechter 26 5.79 6 12 29 26 146.0 176 94 27 47 75
Chris Seddon* 23 5.89 7 14 31 31 171.0 203 112 33 66 104
James Houser* 22 5.94 6 12 30 29 162.0 191 107 37 54 109
Edwin Jackson 23 6.32 5 13 38 21 131.0 159 92 23 64 80
Chuck Tiffany* 22 6.38 5 13 23 22 117.0 136 83 32 46 103
Marcos Carvajal 22 6.40 1 3 49 0 83.0 93 59 16 49 61
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Scott Kazmir
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.88 16 8 33 33 203 171 65 12 76 209
Mean 3.57 12 8 30 30 179 165 71 15 75 176
Pessimistic (15%) 4.34 8 9 25 25 145 145 70 16 66 136
Top Near-Age Comps: Vida Blue, Johnny Antonelli
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Sparkles Peterson Posted: January 07, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2275819)The offense has pretty good power but lousy on-base skills.
You know, I've never asked -- how are batters sorted? It's not OBP, SLG or OPS. Whatever it's sorted by doesn't appear in the table ... and that might be nice since it would allow you to put in a "league average" line for them too. I assume the "league average" lines are within the run environment you're using for projections.
Which is just a whiny way of saying "ooh, nice addition, Dan. You rock!"
More than likely an outfield of Baldelli, Crawford, Gomes(dh) Young(probably better than projected)
infield of Wiggington, Upton, Iwamura, and Cantu is a nice base to build around, mind you that infield defense is going to be atrocious, better hope for fly ball pitchers that can keep it in the stadium.
Who is going to play where though? Anyone think that there is a slim chance that the D-rays will pursue a big name free agent pitcher next season(Santana?)
Anyone else noticed how catchers so often have short names?
Make way for Jarrod Saltamacchia
Even better than you represent him: that's Saltalamacchia
I'm kind of surprised to see that ZiPS doesn't see more upside in Carl Crawford. It's certainly counter to how you hear him spoken of in the media.
Maybe you should blame Sickels. :-) Not a great top 3 as of today.
Tony Pena?
It's hard as hell to objectively predict pitchers and Niemann is a classic illustration. You've got the limited performance data, the health concerns, the high K rate and the size. I don't know if ZiPS accounts for pitcher size, but David Gassko's research (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/does-size-matter-part-5/) suggests that pitchers of extreme size (hold the Ron Jeremy jokes please) strike out more and allow fewer runs.
I'd be willing to bet JP Howell puts up a better ERA than Gilga Meche.
True. I was thinking of players around today like Paul Bako, Toby Hall, Josh Paul, Mike Rose, John Buck, John Jaso. It seemed like there were more than that. Josh Bard could be the exception - he looks pretty good.
Dave Ross seems to be listed as David now. Maybe that's why he started hitting again.
The club's 13th round pick in 2004, Sonnanstine set a new organizational single-season record by winning 15 games for Double-A Montgomery this year.
Source: Tampa Tribune
TEAM: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6'3' / 185
DOB: 3/18/1983
AGE: 23
BATS/THROWS: Left / Right
As would I. Heck, I'd of given up McCarthy to get them either of them, whichever the D-Rays would be willing to give up. Today, I'd give up Danks, Masset and Rasner (sp?) in a heartbeat to get one of them. Something tells me it would take more, though. I'd toss in Gio Gonzalez to get a deal done, or Gavin Floyd or Andrew Sisco if they want to go for some upside. If they wanted a first base prospect instead of one of the pitchers I'd offer them Fields. Heck, I'd be willing to mix and match any and all of the guys I've listed to get Dukes thrown into the deal, even if he is a headcase. Anything not to see Podsednik in left field next year with no depth behind him and no possibility of replacement.
Love the Baldelli and Crawford projections, and Dukes looks pretty good, too.
Is it me, or does the D-Ray organization produce more than its share of headcases?
With a club this young, there is a fair bit of variability in what can be expected both offensively and defensively.
Everytime we have a Rays thread, someone talks about how they like to have Crawford or Baldelli on their team in return for prospects.
Then everytime I post that Andrew Friedman has said on several occasions that he's not going to deal either of them unless they get established MLB talent in return that could improve them both now and in the future. IOW, he'll have to be blown away and prospects aren't going to do it.
I don't think there is anyone on the White Sox roster who the Rays would want for Crawford or Baldelli. Not that the White Sox aren't a very good team, but most of their talent is fairly old. Maybe Garland or Buehrle, but Buehrle is going into his contract year and Garland will be doing so the following year (and will earn $22mm over that time).
I was thinking the exact same thing. Zips did not factor in his injury last year. If healthy, Gomes should post a stat line closer to Francoeur (with a better OBP). Something like .260/30/90/80/5. His stats really declined sharply after his shoulder started bothering him last year.
And my fantasy teams wept...
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