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Tuesday, January 09, 2007

2007 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Mark Teixeira#        1b 27 .287 .373 .541 157 614 105 176 40 1 38 130 81 122 3 0
AVERAGE 1B/DH—————————- .283 .361 .494—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF———————————.282 .354 .469—————————————————————
Mike Young           ss 30 .307 .353 .461 160 685 102 210 44 4 18 101 51 96 7 2
AVERAGE RF———————————.279 .349 .464—————————————————————
Jason Botts#        1b 26 .260 .338 .484 121 419 71 109 27 2 21 78 47 124 4 2
AVERAGE 3B———————————.278 .346 .457—————————————————————
Brad Wilkerson*      lf 30 .251 .353 .460 134 483 85 121 35 3 20 62 75 137 5 4
Frankie Catalanotto*    lf 33 .291 .364 .420 117 388 48 113 31 2 5 52 40 42 0 2
Hank Blalock*        3b 26 .273 .336 .461 159 627 90 171 33 2 27 112 59 117 1 0
Nelson Cruz         rf 26 .266 .335 .465 125 413 59 110 22 0 20 70 40 107 10 5
AVERAGE CF———————————.275 .338 .432—————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B———————————.278 .336 .418—————————————————————
Adam Hyzdu           rf 35 .247 .341 .419 100 320 39 79 17 1 12 50 44 77 2 2
Ian Kinsler         2b 25 .264 .325 .439 124 458 77 121 27 1 17 69 40 67 11 5
AVERAGE SS———————————.277 .330 .415—————————————————————
Gerald Laird         c   27 .270 .320 .441 78 256 46 69 15 1 9 33 18 56 4 2
AVERAGE C———————————- .267 .328 .414—————————————————————
Kenny Lofton*        cf 40 .292 .350 .367 94 332 77 97 12 5 1 40 30 31 17 3
Victor Diaz         rf 25 .258 .312 .445 138 488 63 126 26 1 21 79 37 131 6 4
Miguel Ojeda         c   32 .255 .329 .391 85 184 23 47 8 1 5 26 20 44 1 0
Will Smith*          rf 25 .262 .312 .418 77 263 36 69 15 1 8 40 18 45 3 1
Marlon Byrd         cf 29 .251 .323 .396 125 386 48 97 22 2 10 49 33 71 4 3
Marshall McDougall     3b 28 .254 .306 .423 57 201 27 51 13 0 7 33 14 50 0 1
Jerry Hairston Jr.    2b 31 .267 .336 .372 98 333 44 89 22 2 3 31 26 40 9 9
Anthony Webster*      rf 24 .270 .306 .406 140 500 71 135 30 4 10 47 25 65 14 7
Guillermo Quiroz       c   25 .251 .300 .391 64 215 22 54 12 0 6 34 14 42 0 0
Dave Berg           3b 36 .256 .337 .328 68 238 37 61 14 0 1 28 26 41 0 0
Ramon Vazquez*        ss 30 .224 .318 .346 77 205 29 46 11 1 4 25 27 46 1 1
Adam Morrissey       2b 26 .246 .305 .359 95 329 35 81 17 1 6 37 26 94 1 3
Joaquin Arias         ss 22 .272 .299 .354 136 525 60 143 18 5 5 53 19 59 16 8
Matt Kata#          rf 29 .247 .293 .375 97 283 28 70 17 2 5 24 13 47 2 3
Adrian Brown#        lf 33 .239 .313 .318 87 314 49 75 15 2 2 24 31 53 8 2
Jason Hart           1b 29 .227 .279 .394 114 388 35 88 23 0 14 50 25 87 0 2
Freddy Guzman#        cf 26 .260 .332 .328 119 427 63 111 19 2 2 28 44 70 35 24
Jared Sandberg       1b 29 .212 .277 .367 111 373 48 79 25 0 11 49 31 121 2 1
Eric Young           lf 40 .227 .321 .308 72 211 29 48 12 1 1 24 24 28 7 5
Jace Brewer         3b 28 .242 .284 .350 84 277 31 67 13 1 5 29 14 52 1 3
Aarom Baldiris       3b 24 .233 .278 .333 121 420 45 98 24 0 6 42 23 64 3 3
Drew Meyer*          2b 25 .240 .285 .315 114 429 51 103 20 3 2 40 26 95 8 6
Travis Metcalf       3b 24 .211 .262 .322 134 459 49 97 20 2 9 42 31 123 6 4
Tom Gregorio         c   30 .212 .253 .299 43 137 10 29 6 0 2 18   7 37 1 1

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Mark Teixeira

Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .302 .399 .595 162 635 124 192 47 2 45 162 97 118 4 0  
Mean         .287 .373 .541 157 614 105 176 40 1 38 130 81 122 3 0
Pessimistic (15%) .262 .340 .471 136 535 78 140 31 0 27 91 62 118 1 0

Top Near-Age Comps: Kent Hrbek, Tony Clark

Compare Teixeira’s pessimistic projection to the rest of the team’s mean projections. 
This offense is dead if the Rangers don’t lock him up long-term soon.

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Eric Gagne           31   2.61   6   2 55   0   62.0   50   18   5   15   74
Akinori Otsuka         35   3.09   6   2 70   0   67.0   61   23   5   21   60
Frankie Francisco       27   3.74   4   3 49   0   53.0   42   22   6   29   63
Kevin Millwood         32   4.19 13 10 30 30   189.0 198   88 23   51 137
Ron Mahay*          36   4.29   3   2 56   1   63.0   63   30   7   27   55
Joaquin Benoit         29   4.29   3   2 62   0   84.0   76   40   9   40   79
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———- 4.34———————————————————————-
Scott Feldman         24   4.39   3   3 66   0   80.0   83   39   9   28   51
Vicente Padilla       29   4.55 11 11 29 29   168.0 173   85 21   61 122
C.J. Wilson*          26   4.73   3   4 55   0   59.0   60   31   9   24   48
Brandon McCarthy       23   4.78   7   8 40 17   143.0 145   76 25   38 118
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER————4.89———————————————————————-
Wes Littleton         24   4.91   4   5 62   0   88.0   95   48 15   30   55
Rick Bauer           30   4.95   4   4 44   8   91.0   99   50 11   36   51
Kameron Loe           25   5.10   8 10 37 21   136.0 153   77 20   48   80
Willie Eyre           28   5.27   4   5 44   8   94.0 104   55 13   40   56
John Rheinecker*      28   5.36   7 10 29 25   151.0 181   90 22   49   76
Mike Wood           27   5.41   6   8 33 18   123.0 141   74 21   45   71
Jesse Carlson*        26   5.50   4   6 61   0   72.0   83   44 12   27   45
Daniel Haigwood*      23   5.54   5   8 28 28   156.0 163   96 22   93 118
A.J. Murray*          25   5.63   6 10 29 25   147.0 170   92 27   56   95
Rob Tejeda           25   5.68   5 10 21 21   114.0 115   72 24   64   93
Franklyn German       27   5.76   2   3 51   0   50.0   53   32 10   31   38
Armando Galarraga       25   5.87   5   8 23 23   138.0 167   90 29   42   86
Antonio Alfonseca       35   5.88   1   1 31   0   26.0   31   17   4   11   13
Josh Rupe           24   5.89   3   5 36   5   81.0   96   53 15   32   39
John Koronka*        27   5.90   7 12 27 25   145.0 168   95 25   63   80
Jeremy Ward           29   5.91   3   5 43   0   64.0   76   42 13   22   35
Thomas Diamond         24   5.94   6 12 30 30   147.0 154   97 27   89 122
Edison Volquez         23   6.08   7 13 30 28   157.0 183 106 32   69 114
Eric Hurley           21   6.14   6 11 27 27   154.0 179 105 33   66 103
Ryan Jensen           31   6.21   5 10 25 20   126.0 150   87 24   55   74
R.A. Dickey           32   6.70   5 13 26 20   137.0 173 102 31   54   62
Francisco Cruceta       25   6.76   6 15 33 28   165.0 190 124 41   86 119
Alfredo Simon         26   7.43   3   8 32 13   92.0 121   76 24   35   47

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Kevin Millwood
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.55 17   8 33 33 213 208   84 22   51 163
Mean           4.19 13 10 30 30 189 198   88 23   51 137
Pessimistic (15%)  5.12   9 10 25 25 153 174   87 23   47 103

Top Near-Age Comps:  Danny Darwin, Lon Warneke

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 09, 2007 at 05:26 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. MSI Posted: January 09, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2276840)
Michael Young is looking more and more like "just" a great player, and not a superstar after that career year. His line seems more like 2006 than 2005. Also, I think Gagne can do well too, if he's healthy. Also, with Brandon McCarthy, Milwood and Padilla, they have the semblance of a good rotation. They will improve from the Mccarthy trade,where the White Sox will slightly decline since they unloaded 2 SP candidates. The offence is still pretty good.
   2. Frisco Cali Posted: January 09, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2276850)
It's "offense", you damn Canuck.

(Insert hatemail below)
   3. FBI Posted: January 09, 2007 at 06:58 PM (#2276860)
These projections certainly make the case that Wilkerson should be in centerfield and Botts at DH
   4. Mike J Posted: January 09, 2007 at 06:58 PM (#2276861)
Rob Tejeda says "ouch".
   5. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 09, 2007 at 06:59 PM (#2276862)
Not a bad looking team, but am I right in thinking that the defense ain't so good? Lofton in center and Young at short make them fairly weak up the middle, no? Still, they look improved over last year. It wouldn't shock me to see them win the West. If Gagne can really throw, then the bullpen looks to be pretty good, too. Looks like it a could be a fun 3 team race in the west with Bavasi locking himself in his office with the lights off and imagining a complex social hierarchy for his Sea Monkeys while making them dance with a pen light.
   6. Toolsy McClutch Posted: January 09, 2007 at 07:54 PM (#2276896)
Wow, Guillermo Quiroz is still only 25. It seems like he was a stud prospect 10 years ago.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 09, 2007 at 08:07 PM (#2276909)
What, no Antonio Alfonseca joke about what ZIPS projects for him in the category of "fingers"?
   8. Frisco Cali Posted: January 09, 2007 at 08:19 PM (#2276923)
Wow, Guillermo Quiroz is still only 25. It seems like he was a stud prospect 10 years ago

He will have his Chris Coste moment in 8 years.
   9. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: January 09, 2007 at 08:30 PM (#2276934)
What do folks think about the possibility of Hank Blalock reversing his career path. He might never hit lefties, but it would be nice to see him going back to tatooing righties.
   10. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 09, 2007 at 08:33 PM (#2276937)
Quiroz posted excellent opposing SB/CS numbers in (somewhat limited time in) AAA last year.
   11. Nobody ##### with DeJesus Posted: January 09, 2007 at 08:50 PM (#2276970)
That's a heckuva rebound for Wilkerson.
   12. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: January 09, 2007 at 09:34 PM (#2277042)
I like the additions of the league averages in the pitching section. Can we get a league average OPS or something in the batter section, or a line prorated to X number of AB?
   13. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 09, 2007 at 10:18 PM (#2277106)
with Bavasi locking himself in his office with the lights off and imagining a complex social hierarchy for his Sea Monkeys while making them dance with a pen light.

Bill Bavasi does not have the imagination or brain power to do this. He'll lock himself in his office with Thundercats reruns and a couple of shiny objects, and spend the rest of the season cackling gleefully while Chris Antonetti secretly interviews for his job.
   14. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: January 09, 2007 at 11:28 PM (#2277176)
I haven't heard the following mentioned before, but it makes intuitive sense. There have to be some ballplayers who juice through college, the minors, and their first few years in the majors, get the big contract, and go off the stuff permanently. Whose careers would this explain?
   15. Robinson Cano Plate Like Home Posted: January 09, 2007 at 11:44 PM (#2277193)
How about a line for replacement-level?
   16. Frisco Cali Posted: January 10, 2007 at 01:01 AM (#2277246)
Sean Burroughs started juicing in 4th grade.
   17. BDC Posted: January 10, 2007 at 01:16 AM (#2277255)
the possibility of Hank Blalock reversing his career path. He might never hit lefties, but it would be nice to see him going back to tatooing righties

Unfortunately, the guy he hits best is Eric Gagne.

I am for once quietly optimistic about the Rangers. For the past few years I have thought .500 was well within their sights. Now I think a playoff spot is well within them. Somebody shake me before this optimism hardens and embitters me.
   18. Honkie Kong Posted: January 10, 2007 at 01:51 AM (#2277278)
Rangers have had a good bullpen for the last 3 yrs I think. That Tex projection is looking awesome. They need to get lucky with starting pitching to get over the hump me thinks
   19. NTNgod Posted: January 10, 2007 at 01:59 AM (#2277285)
That Nelson Cruz projection is interesting from the sense it has him striking out less in the majors than he did in AAA.

It'll be interesting to see how things pan out if he gets everyday PT.

When Cruz was hitting well at Nashville, and people were asking why Cruz wasn't brought up early last year, the word that would leak in the papers is that the Brewers were concerned his strikeout rate in the minors was too high, and he would have trouble making enough contact to be productive.
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 10, 2007 at 02:07 AM (#2277293)
Rangers fans, what do you think of Nate Gold? Does he have a future or should we take his 2006 numbers into little account due to his age?
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 10, 2007 at 06:52 AM (#2277442)
OK, I updated with league-average for park for position players. What do you guys think - is this a good addition to the report or does it just clutter things?
   22. William K. Posted: January 10, 2007 at 07:08 AM (#2277449)
OK, I updated with league-average for park for position players. What do you guys think - is this a good addition to the report or does it just clutter things?


It might help if you moved the position info for the average into the same column as for the players. Reduces the need to look left and then back right. Something like...

Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Mark Teixeira# 1b 27 .287 .373 .541 157 614 105 176 40 1 38 130 81 122 3 0
AVERAGE ----------------1B/DH--- .283 .361 .494 ------------------------------------------
AVERAGE -----------------LF----- .282 .354 .469 ------------------------------------------
Mike Young ss 30 .307 .353 .461 160 685 102 210 44 4 18 101 51 96 7 2
   23. William K. Posted: January 10, 2007 at 07:12 AM (#2277451)
Ooops, guess the cut and paste didn't work but I think you can picture what I mean
   24. guru4u Posted: January 10, 2007 at 03:29 PM (#2277540)
So, what does everyone think Gagne's chances are of getting those numbers (read as - what are his chances of staying healthy)? It's a perplexing question, because on one hand, he's been injured the last two years - and despite looking great in spring training, he basically did not pitch last year. On the other hand, Texas did pay him some pretty good $$, so they must be satisfied in thinking he'll stay healthy. There's no doubt Gagne can reach the projections if he does in fact stay healthy, but what are the odds?
   25. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: January 10, 2007 at 03:56 PM (#2277565)
Rangers fans, what do you think of Nate Gold?

He played his first full season of AA at age 26 after spending all or parts of 4 years in A ball. If nothing else, he had the best individual season in the long and glorious history of the Rough Riders last year.
   26. Mister High Standards Posted: January 10, 2007 at 04:10 PM (#2277578)
That offense does not look good at all.
   27. 8ball Posted: January 10, 2007 at 04:56 PM (#2277613)
OK, I updated with league-average for park for position players. What do you guys think - is this a good addition to the report or does it just clutter things?


I like it.
   28. Honkie Kong Posted: January 10, 2007 at 05:03 PM (#2277620)
OK, I updated with league-average for park for position players. What do you guys think - is this a good addition to the report or does it just clutter things?

I like it except that things arent lined up right now. AVG SS line is next to Kinsler rather than Michael Young..
   29. alkeiper Posted: January 10, 2007 at 05:58 PM (#2277658)
How about a line for replacement-level?

Ten fingers, obviously.
   30. greenback calls it soccer Posted: January 10, 2007 at 06:51 PM (#2277707)
OK, I updated with league-average for park for position players. What do you guys think - is this a good addition to the report or does it just clutter things?

It's great information. I'd suggest putting all of the position averages at the bottom of the hitters.
   31. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: January 11, 2007 at 12:06 PM (#2278306)
Why is Wilkerson's line below the "Average 3B" line despite having higher OBP and SLG? Is 5/4 SB/CS (or projected GIDP totals, or whatever) really that bad?
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 11, 2007 at 02:26 PM (#2278343)
Why is Wilkerson's line below the "Average 3B" line despite having higher OBP and SLG? Is 5/4 SB/CS (or projected GIDP totals, or whatever) really that bad?

I assume something like this - DMB does the RC/27 calculations, I just reprint the ranked report.

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