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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, January 12, 2007

2007 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Frank Thomas         dh 39 .255 .370 .522 92 314 51 80 9 0 25 74 53 65 0 0
Lyle Overbay*        1b 30 .301 .374 .491 156 564 82 170 45 1 20 91 66 106 3 2
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b/dh - .283 .359 .498—————————————————————
Troy Glaus           3b 30 .249 .353 .501 142 507 87 126 26 0 34 98 80 137 2 1
Vernon Wells         cf 28 .285 .344 .501 150 601 86 171 34 3 30 103 54 89 9 2
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.282 .352 .477—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.279 .348 .472—————————————————————
Adam Lind*          lf 23 .296 .350 .466 152 541 55 160 39 1 17 80 44 116 2 1
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.278 .344 .465—————————————————————
Reed Johnson         lf 30 .286 .346 .423 130 437 67 125 26 2 10 53 26 81 6 2
Matt Stairs*        1b 39 .253 .337 .441 122 372 42 94 23 1 15 64 45 57 0 0
Alexis Rios         rf 26 .282 .333 .444 140 496 69 140 31 5 13 72 37 98 13 5
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.275 .337 .437—————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.278 .335 .421—————————————————————
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.277 .329 .418—————————————————————
AVERAGE C———————c——- .267 .327 .419—————————————————————
Gregg Zaun#          c   36 .242 .347 .382 91 285 38 69 16 0 8 39 44 48 1 1
Kevin Barker*        1b 31 .240 .319 .419 136 470 53 113 34 1 16 66 52 133 1 1
Chip Cannon*        1b 25 .241 .303 .442 138 477 52 115 25 1 23 69 38 158 0 1
Russ Adams*          2b 26 .260 .330 .380 141 511 73 133 29 4 8 59 51 62 9 3
Aaron Hill           2b 25 .268 .330 .371 150 529 71 142 29 2 7 56 45 59 2 1
Ryan Roberts         2b 26 .244 .316 .382 116 406 49 99 24 1 10 47 41 105 4 2
John-Ford Griffin*    lf 27 .229 .293 .424 105 375 52 86 22 0 17 64 31 111 1 1
Ryan Patterson       lf 24 .256 .293 .423 147 546 65 140 35 1 18 73 27 119 4 3
Tony Miller         cf 26 .243 .337 .356 97 334 54 81 12 1 8 26 46 101 10 7
Curtis Thigpen       c   24 .243 .315 .366 114 399 46 97 24 2 7 39 40 66 3 1
Chad Mottola         rf 35 .247 .290 .411 112 409 43 101 23 1 14 54 22 100 3 3
Dustin Majewski*      cf 25 .220 .306 .379 136 472 59 104 26 2 15 54 57 115 5 4
Jeff Duncan*        cf 28 .253 .325 .353 97 292 40 74 13 2 4 22 27 74 11 8
Royce Clayton         ss 37 .263 .315 .351 140 499 56 131 29 3 3 43 37 108 9 4
Rob Cosby           3b 26 .250 .286 .397 122 436 38 109 25 0 13 55 19 94 0 2
John Hattig#        3b 27 .246 .299 .359 99 329 33 81 23 1 4 30 24 104 0 0
Jason Smith*        ss 29 .240 .284 .404 91 250 28 60 11 3 8 30 14 70 5 3
Jason Phillips       c   30 .236 .288 .351 102 313 28 74 15 0 7 40 20 44 0 1
John McDonald         ss 32 .245 .296 .304 77 184 25 45 6 1 1 17 12 27 4 1
Robinzon Diaz         c   23 .246 .269 .309 112 414 43 102 16 2 2 36 12 34 4 1
Sergio Santos         ss 23 .197 .234 .271 133 483 42 95 19 1 5 35 22 124 1 2

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Adam Lind
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .314 .372 .515 162 577 68 181 48 1 22 104 53 113 2 0
Mean         .296 .350 .466 152 541 55 160 39 1 17 80 44 116 2 1
Pessimistic (15%) .272 .319 .415 118 419 37 114 27 0 11 51 28 100 1 0  

Top Near-Age Comps: Clint Hurdle, Whitey Lockman

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
B.J. Ryan*          31   2.05   5   1 72   0   79.0   53   18   5   27 107
Roy Halladay         30   3.20 14   6 28 28   191.0 186   68 18   33 124
Brandon League         24   3.38   5   3 69   0   96.0   96   36   6   24   60
A.J. Burnett         30   3.63 13   7 27 27   171.0 163   69 15   54 137
Jeremy Accardo         25   3.69   5   3 70   0   78.0   76   32   7   22   63
Jason Frasor         29   3.77   6   3 67   0   74.0   66   31   8   32   70
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.31———————————————————————-
Scott Downs*          31   4.33   5   5 44 13   108.0 109   52 15   35   82
John Thomson         33   4.47   7   7 24 23   137.0 146   68 14   41   81
Blaine Neal           29   4.60   2   2 37   0   45.0   48   23   7   16   35
Jamie Vermilyea       25   4.67   6   6 36 15   131.0 150   68 18   32   63
Davis Romero*        24   4.70   9 10 36 17   138.0 152   72 21   38   87
Josh Towers           30   4.70 11 11 30 29   176.0 207   92 28   32   92
Casey Janssen         25   4.71 10 11 29 28   151.0 177   79 20   28   75
Gustavo Chacin*        26   4.77 10 11 30 30   166.0 175   88 24   69 101
Matt Roney           27   4.81   4   4 50   0   73.0   74   39 10   25   55
Beau Kemp           26   4.81   5   6 56   0   86.0   92   46   8   33   40
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.84———————————————————————-
Francisco Rosario       26   4.94   4   4 30 15   93.0   97   51 16   37   71
Jean Machi           25   4.94   5   7 45   8   102.0 103   56 11   58   78
Shaun Marcum         25   4.94   7   8 37 23   153.0 165   84 30   47 118
Jesse Litsch         22   5.05   9 11 29 28   171.0 215   96 27   22   81
Ty Taubenheim         24   5.27   7 10 30 25   152.0 176   89 29   43   81
Dustin McGowan         25   5.29   4   6 34 17   114.0 120   67 17   53   87
Kyle Yates           24   5.29   8 10 33 25   165.0 191   97 29   48   95
Josh Banks           24   5.42   8 13 29 29   176.0 210 106 46   23 108
Brian Tallet*        29   5.44   3   5 43   8   86.0   93   52 17   33   54
Ricky Romero*        22   5.50   5   7 23 23   126.0 143   77 23   46   70
Ismael Ramirez         26   5.59   7 11 26 25   145.0 170   90 31   41   80
Jeremi Gonzalez       32   5.70   3   6 29 13   101.0 116   64 21   29   58
Ryan Houston         27   5.74   3   6 46   3   80.0   83   51 13   50   65
Brian Wolfe           26   5.82   3   5 30   5   65.0   77   42 12   23   33
Tracy Thorpe         26   5.88   2   4 61   0   72.0   77   47 16   37   59
David Purcey*        25   6.00   7 12 30 30   156.0 166 104 24 102 116

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Gustavo Chacin
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  4.04 13 10 33 33 187 185   84 23   70 119
Mean           4.77 10 11 30 30 166 175   88 24   69 101
Pessimistic (15%)  5.78   6 11 25 25 134 153   86 25   63   79

Top Near-Age Comps:  Ken Brett, Chris Nabholz

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Since I’m done the projections, other than new projections that need to be added,
players are now noted with their current teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:01 AM | 120 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 
   1. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2278996)
Hitters: Aaron Hill's and Alex RIos's are way low, but maybe in part that's because they have talent that may break out that is not founded in previous stats. Hill can hit for way better average than .260's and I think can have double digit homerun power, maybe.

Russ Adams is interesting, as those numbers seem obtainable, and at least make him serviceable as a major leaguer. And they are better than Royce Clayton's, but he'd have to play 2b as his defence was atrocious. I also like Chip Cannon's projection, that's some nice power. I'd say its a pretty solid offence, and I think more often than not since its a young talented team there will be guys who perform the "optimistic" one, imo.
   2. Mooser Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:22 AM (#2278998)
Jannsen, Towers, Chacin, Thomson, Halladay and Burnett all below league average ERA. Why the hell is Toronto worried about their starting pitching. These projections suggest to me they have the best pitching period in the AL EAST. I beg to differ.
   3. Juan V Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:25 AM (#2279001)
Average batting lines by position! Yayyyy!!!

This looks like a pretty good team, if they added a pulse for the middle infield they could do something...
   4. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:25 AM (#2279002)
Honestly the pitching seems about right, though I have some small quibbles about playing time that aren't worth arguing about. But the pitching looks pretty good too, no?
   5. Honkie Kong Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:25 AM (#2279003)
the big question is, Does Troy Glaus have SS eligibility in fantasy leagues next year?
   6. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:27 AM (#2279004)
Glaus isn't going back to SS, I can guarantee you that.
   7. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:30 AM (#2279006)
BTW, didn't the Jays have the best pitching in the AL East last year anyway? It could easily happen again. If the youngsters all grow up a year and can be league average in case of injuries for the rotation, then that'd be a big help, such as from Janssen, McGowan, etc. The projection on Towers is interesting, what are the chances that he returns to the mean? Is it possible? He looked more confident at the end of the year (albeit for 3 innings).
   8. PitViper Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:32 AM (#2279009)
Dan, are you going to create a DMB file like in prior years? If not, are you going to share the projections in a spreadsheet?
   9. Gaelan Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:38 AM (#2279011)
Are the league average numbers prorated for the park? That is, is an 4.84 ERA league average for a starter in the Skydome or the league as a whole?
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:52 AM (#2279014)
"Why the hell is Toronto worried about their starting pitching."

At this time a week ago, they didn't have Thomson.
   11. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:53 AM (#2279015)
With Frank Thomas, while I don't know what his average will be, the last three years he has hit in the neighbourhood of 1 homerun every 10-12 at bats. 2004: 18 hr/240 AB, 2005: 12 hr/105 ab, and 2006: 39 hr/466. That was consistent while he hit .270, .220, and .270 in those years, about. Thus, if he gets a full slate of at bats this year, even around 400 at bats in the homer friendly Rogers Centre, 35 homeruns seems very realistic.

I'll just say my other quibbles. AJ if healthy could go 200 innings, as thats what he was on pace for last year. Halladay last year could have gone more if he was healthy...he said he was bothered with a forearm strain all year. If he could be really healthy again, he could be like the Doc of 2005. Does anyone know if his sort of mild irritation thing is predictive of future injury? I'm not as optimistic on Towers and Chacin and Janssen, but at least one of those will do league average hopefully, but I'm higher on Marcum, and obviously McGowan's upper ceiling is higher, but that could be in 2008 we're talking. Other than that, the bulllpen looks good because it has depth. I mean, if the farm system has anything, then its depth of respectable arms for the pen / back end rotation guys.
   12. Mooser Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:01 AM (#2279017)
Are the league average numbers prorated for the park? That is, is an 4.84 ERA league average for a starter in the Skydome or the league as a whole?


Well the Texas projections yesterday had different league average ERAs for both starters and relievers, so I assume it is adjusted for park.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:01 AM (#2279018)
- League-average for Skydome.

- DMB disk and spreadsheet will be coming out as usual in the next few days, after the Nats are posted. Just finished assigning as many players as I could to their proper teams - as I mentioned above, minor-league free agent signings are reported very inconsistently.

- Josh Towers is really hard to project - he's got such a fine line between awesome control and disaster.
   14. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:04 AM (#2279019)
Well one thing we know is he lets up about 30 homers a year...but still if someone goes down because of injury, if he could be a 5.00 ERA over a lot of innins as a 5th guy, that'd be great. But I guess it's not as great if he's replacing a number 1 or 2 guy...I mean if the 5 guy gets injured, then who cares?
   15. Dixiechick Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:13 AM (#2279025)
If Josh Towers throws 176 innings with a 4.70 era, I will personally buy everyone who posts in this thread a jersey of your favorite team. At first I thought a decimal place was missing.à

Hills numbers are realistic, not pessimistic. Rios on the other hand, should do better than predicted.

Of course none of it really matters as it appears the Yankees and Red Sox have bought their playoff positions.
   16. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:16 AM (#2279026)
Of course none of it really matters as it appears the Yankees and Red Sox have bought their playoff positions.


The St. Louis Cardinals have something to say to about that.
   17. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:19 AM (#2279027)
Of course none of it really matters as it appears the Yankees and Red Sox have bought their playoff positions.

Really? I think the Jays have a pretty good shot at passing the Red Sox again this year.
   18. Mooser Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:22 AM (#2279030)
The St. Louis Cardinals have something to say to about that


dont get it

AJ Burnett would be a considered a great free agent signing if he comes close to this projection. 171 innings is about right.
Linds optimistic projection is sick. I was surprised Toronto was dangling Rios for a trade - now it makes sense.
   19. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:25 AM (#2279033)
It just means that no one would have took them to win the World Series at the beginning of the playoffs last year, and they won. SO...
   20. Darren Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:39 AM (#2279042)
Just posting to make sure I get my free shirt.
   21. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:04 AM (#2279054)
Jose Reyes #7, here.
   22. Darren Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:18 AM (#2279064)
If Josh Banks could cut his HR allowed by, say, 30 or so, he'd look pretty good. 2:1 HR:BB ratio is impressive though.
   23. Matthew E Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:18 AM (#2279065)
If Josh Towers throws 176 innings with a 4.70 era, I will personally buy everyone who posts in this thread a jersey of your favorite team.

He's capable of it. This is the guy who led the AL East in ERA in 2005. Remember, he's had bad years before (2002) and bounced back. I'm not saying he will succeed, but it wouldn't surprise me a bit if he did.
   24. NTNgod Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:22 AM (#2279069)
If Josh Banks could cut his HR allowed by, say, 30 or so, he'd look pretty good. 2:1 HR:BB ratio is impressive though.

If teams carried a designated 'blow-out' pitcher - where HRs don't irritate but walks do - he'd be the perfect guy.
   25. Hit by Pitch Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:22 AM (#2279070)
I think that either Downs or League should start. I think Downs might be a good replacement for Lilly. He's also left handed, cheaper and projects to be about as effective.


2007 ZiPS Projection - Ted Lilly
-------------------------------------------------------------
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
-------------------------------------------------------------
Projection 12 12 30 30 169 155 80 23 79 148 4.26
   26. Honkie Kong Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:23 AM (#2279072)
Brian McCann jersey please
   27. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:31 AM (#2279076)
Just for fun:

Scott Downs
     ERA   W   L   G  GS    INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
ST  4.70   9   9  25  25  142.2  148   74  21   45  103
REL 3.62   4   3  64   0   72.0   68   29   9   24   60
   28. Darren Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:32 AM (#2279077)
Banks had a great year in AA in 05: 162 IP, 145 K, 11 BB, 18 HR. What kind of pitcher is he?
   29. danjulien Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:34 AM (#2279078)
This is a very optimistic projection for Jays fans...I was all for the low expectations this year until this...Thanks for getting my hopes up

Eve: #32 Halladay jersey...black...
   30. NTNgod Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:39 AM (#2279080)
Banks had a great year in AA in 05: 162 IP, 145 K, 11 BB, 18 HR.

Second time through the league.

Stuff-wise, Towers would be a reasonable comparison.
   31. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:49 AM (#2279086)
Banks is almost stubborn in not letting up walks to the point where he lets up a lot of homeruns. What are the chances Purcey gets better this year? He had a bad year, and he'll turn 25. He has good stuff but bad control. I mean, if he became a good reliever that'd be good. Baseball America ranks him in the top 10 this year. From what I understand he was a high ceiling pick relatively speaking by Riccardi. It'd be nice if he wasn't a copmlete bust.
   32. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:54 AM (#2279088)
Robinson Cano.
   33. danjulien Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:15 AM (#2279119)
I played around with the projections and the Lineup Analysis Tool

Jays projected lineup

Findings are here
   34. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:38 AM (#2279128)
We know Thomas is cleanup and GLaus is 5th. That makes sense too, as the less Thomas runs the better. And he'd run a lot to 3rd after Overbay doubles, but less considering Glaus hits mostly homeruns or walks. Also, your lineup is R-R-R-R-R-L-L-R-R. We have Matt stairs as OF and Jason Smith can platoon with Clayton as he is a lefty and can play short stop. And if Adam Lind is up or Russ Adams, that adds more into the mix. I was considering on putting Overbay in the 2nd spot because of his OBP, but Bill James has given him a -10 in baserunning. In fact, here is the projected lineup in terms of baserunning skills. (note: while this is a drawback, team defence I think is strong, even with Clayton).

Reed Johnson +7
Alex Rios +5
Vernon Wells -3
Frank Thomas -23
Troy Glaus -2
Lyle Overbay -10
Aaron Hill +13
Greg Zaun -2
Royce Clayton +4

(Matt Stairs -5
John McDonald +12)

Can you say double play? The Jays led the league in DP last year, had no Frank Thomas, but had Shea Hillenbrand and Bengie Molina. It's pretty much a draw this year.
   35. NTNgod Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:42 AM (#2279131)
I was considering on putting Overbay in the 2nd spot because of his OBP, but Bill James has given him a -10 in baserunning.

Lyle is certainly closer to the 'glacial' end of the speed spectrum.
I'd put my money on Prince Fielder in a footrace between the two (Fielder's quicker than you'd expect for a guy with his ample frame).
   36. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:50 AM (#2279136)
Here are the stats next to their OBPs.

Reed Johnson +7, .390
Alex Rios +5, .349
Vernon Wells -3, .357
Frank Thomas -23, .381
Troy Glaus -2, .355
Lyle Overbay -10, .372
Aaron Hill +13, .349
Greg Zaun -2, .363
Royce Clayton +4, .307

Is it that bad to have 5 righties to being your lineup?
   37. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 07:00 AM (#2279139)
Ah here is the unorthodox lineup that I was thinking of.

Johnson, Overbay, Thomas, Glaus, Wells, Rios, Zaun, Hill, Clayton.

Get the slow sluggers out of the way first, and then the fast guys come on...Glaus in front of Wells isn't too bad as Glaus can chug pretty well around the bases. The early guys are station to station types. Reed Johnson gets hit by a pitch to start the game. Overbay smacks a double. And Thomas and Glaus do their thing. Glaus chugs home from a single by Wells, etc. But is Rios enough protection for Wells? I guess not. I like having Frank THomas right behind Wells to ensure some nice pitches.
   38. Smitty* Posted: January 12, 2007 at 01:58 PM (#2279216)
Pujols jersey for me
   39. bibigon Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:10 PM (#2279222)
The Burnett signing looks better by the day.

By the way, can someone give me a decent scouting report as to what makes Ryan so dominant? I know what he throws, and on the surface, it doesn't seem to indicate those sorts of numbers. So how's he do it?
   40. BFFB Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:12 PM (#2279224)
Make mine a Webb jersey.

Ta.
   41. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:35 PM (#2279228)
Royce Clayton is the Blue Jays' shortstop--seriously?
   42. Jonny German Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:57 PM (#2279235)
Why do so many people seem to take Towers' 209-inning 2005 season as a major fluke and his 62-inning 2006 season as his true talent level? Make mine a TOWERS jersey, Eve.
   43. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:00 PM (#2279236)
I should note that (to answer a question at battersbox while I wait for my registration to be approved) this isn't projecting Vermilyea or Romero to be better-than-average starters. The breakdown for Vermilyea is 4.91 as a starter, 4.00 as a reliever and for Romero, 4.93 as a starter, 3.94 as a reliever.
   44. Hit by Pitch Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:01 PM (#2279241)
The 4.26 era projection for Lilly is in the NL, I wonder what his projection as a Blue Jay would have been. Likely it's pretty close to 4.70.
   45. Daryn Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:07 PM (#2279244)
I'll take a Halladay black jersey as well, Eve. I assume if he pitches more than 176 innings and has an ERA lower than 4.70 we also get the shirt.
   46. Tourist Nation Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:50 PM (#2279269)
Make mine a Matsusaka throw back.
   47. Dirty Tom Rackham Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:57 PM (#2279335)
decent scouting report as to what makes Ryan so dominant

Word is that hitters have a hard time picking up the ball. So while he doesn't throw especially hard it appears to be faster than it is. A Stats Inc scouting report.

And I'll take an old school Juan Guzman jersey
   48. Rick Vaughn Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:10 PM (#2279347)
Seems foolish not to post and get that free jersey.

Make mine a Jack Elliot Chunichi Dragons jersey...#54

Good luck Josh!
   49. AROM Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:22 PM (#2279354)
Just in case, I'll take a Troy Glaus jersey, but I think Eve's bet is safe.

I'm not sure if the Jays are even planning on having Towers in the rotation this year, but if he makes it, what are the odds he pitches exactly 176 innings and allows exactly 92 runs?

Will we win the bet if he pitches 176 1/3 innings?
   50. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2279361)
Since the season won't end in time to get the Cardinals jersey for the St. Louis SABR convention, I'd like a Cory Snyder Indians jersey for the 2008 convention, please.
   51. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:32 PM (#2279368)
The only thing left to do would be converting Lind into a capable defensive shortstop ;).

I'll go with a Ron Santo home jersey. Thanks, Eve!
   52. Famous Original Joe C Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:49 PM (#2279380)
Dwight Evans. If you can't find Evans, I'll take Kevin Youkilis. Home white, please.
   53. a wider scope of derision Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:52 PM (#2279385)
Does ZiPS not know that Lind is (supposedly) going to Syracuse?

I've already got my Expos jersey, but you can pay to put a "45" on the back.
   54. Kyle S Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:07 PM (#2279403)
I'm gonna go with a Kazu Saito Softbank Hawks jersey. That would be sweet.
   55. DCA Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:12 PM (#2279417)
Adam Melhuse. Dark green.
   56. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:01 PM (#2279513)
Hey how possible is this deal to happen? Reed Johnson, who could play CF for the Cubs who need one (right?), for Mark Prior, who is injury prone and needs a change of scenery. He'd add depth to the Jays rotation, and has a high ceiling (buy low, sell high).
   57. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:09 PM (#2279525)
With a prospect that is.
   58. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:32 PM (#2279546)
I like Reed Johnson, but that trade has no chance of happening. His value isn't that high: he's not young, he doesn't have a great track record, and injuries or not, it's Mark f'n Prior, and the Cubs aren't going to trade him for a 30 year old who has typically been a platoon outfielder.

On the other side, I don't think that the Jays can afford to trade Reed right now. If they did that, Lind would become the starting LF and who's the backup? Stairs? John-Ford the great? If any outfielder went down, or if Lind didn't hit, the Jays would be toast.
   59. Hit by Pitch Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:34 PM (#2279549)
A Hughie Jennings 1896 Baltimore jersey.
   60. bibigon Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:39 PM (#2279554)
Oh, and I want a Kevin Youkilis or Tim Wakefield jersey. Your choice if one is cheaper than the other, but I'd prefer Wakefield all else being equal.
   61. RobertMachemer Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:47 PM (#2279560)
a Mark Bellhorn jersey, 2004 Red Sox, thanks.

So, if they match their projections, are they better/worse/the same as the Red Sox and Yankees (if they match their projections)?
   62. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 09:12 PM (#2279592)
I don't know but here are the links

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_new_york_yankees/

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_boston_red_sox/

LF - Ramirez (3), Matsui (2), Johnson (1)
CF - Wells (3), Damon (2), Crisp/Pena (1)
RF - Abreu (3), Rios (2), Drew (1)
3b - Arod (3), Glaus (2), Lowell (1)
SS - Jeter (3), Lugo (2), Clayton/Smith (1)
2b - Cano (3), Hill (2), Pedroia (1)
1b - Overbay (3), Youklis (2), Mientkiewicz/Phelps (1)
DH - Ortiz (3), Thomas (2), Giambi (1)

SP1 - Halladay (3), Matsuzaka (2), Mussina (1)
SP2 - Schilling (3), Wang (2), Burnett (1)
SP3 - Papelbon (3), Pettite (2), Thomson (1)
SP4 - Beckett (3), Marcum (2), Igawa (1)
SP5 - Pavano/Hughes (3), Wakefield, (2), Chacin (1)

CL - Rivera (3), Ryan (2), Piniero et al. (1)
Bullpen - NY (3), TOR (2), BOS (1)
Bench - BOS (3), NY (2), TOR (1)

Based on these very archaic rankings, just for fun, the Yankees have 35 relative points, the Jays 29, and the Red Sox 32. I'm sure that others disagree with my order for some positions.
   63. Walt Davis Posted: January 12, 2007 at 09:18 PM (#2279603)
In honor of Mr. Towers' rebound, I would like the jersey of the 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner: Jason Marquis!!
   64. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 09:30 PM (#2279609)
I like Reed Johnson, but that trade has no chance of happening. His value isn't that high: he's not young, he doesn't have a great track record, and injuries or not, it's Mark f'n Prior, and the Cubs aren't going to trade him for a 30 year old who has typically been a platoon outfielder.


This makes the assumption that the Cubs aren't retards. I think many would disagree with that particular assumption.
   65. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 09:35 PM (#2279611)
I'd personally feel better if it were the Dodgers. The way they abuse young talent by signing Luis Gonzalez baffles me. I'd try and pluck some of their young OF or excess SP.
   66. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 12, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2279622)
i want a retro ivan dejesus jersey.
   67. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 12, 2007 at 10:17 PM (#2279647)
This makes the assumption that the Cubs aren't retards. I think many would disagree with that particular assumption.

Sure, but there's levels of being dumb. Playing Neifi! over Walker? Pretty dumb. Allowing Dusty Baker to slag most of your young arms? Very dumb. But trading Prior for Reed Johnson and a C pitching prospect is a whole new level of dumb. There'd be no good way to spin this trade. I'm not saying the Hendry wouldn't trade Prior in some awful deal, but this one would never work.
   68. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: January 12, 2007 at 10:42 PM (#2279660)
Make mine a Justin Duchscherer
   69. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: January 12, 2007 at 10:59 PM (#2279674)
Jersey please. I will specify who later.
   70. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 11:10 PM (#2279686)
There'd be no good way to spin this trade. I'm not saying the Hendry wouldn't trade Prior in some awful deal, but this one would never work.

<HENDRY>
While we appreciate what Mark Prior has contributed to the team and recognize his talent, injuries to our pitching staff have been the team's biggest problem over the last few years. We've added a 15-game and a 14-game starter to our staff and with that depth, we felt it was time to acknowledge our needs.

Reed Johnson is a .319 hitter and has proven the ability to play all 3 outfield positions, which provides us additional flexibility on how we use our newest star, Alfonso Soriano, in a manner that Matt Murton does not and helps us recover from the disappointing departure of Juan Pierre.

We wish Mark the best in all his future endeavors and welcome the newest addition to the 2007 World Champion Chicago Cubs.
</HENDRY>
   71. Michael Posted: January 13, 2007 at 12:34 AM (#2279749)
I'll take a Rios jersey thanks.
   72. HowardMegdal Posted: January 13, 2007 at 12:39 AM (#2279753)
Oliver Perez, 46. Just got it in gray- but I'll take pinstripe!
   73. kwarren Posted: January 13, 2007 at 01:22 AM (#2279792)
If Josh Towers throws 176 innings with a 4.70 era, I will personally buy everyone who posts in this thread a jersey of your favorite team. At first I thought a decimal place was missing.à



Josh's xERA for the past four seasons:

4.08, 4.16, 3.86, 4.46.

A 4.70 ERA in 2007 should be no problem assuming that he has recovered from the battle scars of 2006.
   74. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 13, 2007 at 04:30 AM (#2279858)
I think the issue is whether he would get to 176 innings. He's done that exactly once.
   75. A Day In the Park Posted: January 13, 2007 at 04:53 AM (#2279863)
If Josh Towers throws 176 innings with a 4.70 era, I will personally buy everyone who posts in this thread a jersey of your favorite team. At first I thought a decimal place was missing.à


I have posted and my favorite team is the Boston Red Sox.
   76. Toolsy McClutch Posted: January 13, 2007 at 05:21 AM (#2279870)
I'm torn between a retro Manny Lee or Tony Fernandez. You know, I gotta go Tony, there are too many Lees...
   77. Gaelan Posted: January 13, 2007 at 05:37 AM (#2279876)
Josh's xERA for the past four seasons:

4.08, 4.16, 3.86, 4.46.

A 4.70 ERA in 2007 should be no problem assuming that he has recovered from the battle scars of 2006.


Well that's a bold gauntlet to throw down. I know you said the same thing in the Johnson thread but a lot of people would have missed it. Since the Blue Jays are my favourite team this is a bit of a pickle. I would love it if you were right because it would mean that the Blue Jays make the playoffs. So I'm going to pass on this particular opportunity to rail against DIPS and indulge in the fantasy that the Blue Jays win the division with Towers posting an ERA under 4.50.
   78. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 13, 2007 at 05:46 AM (#2279878)
I would love it if you were right because it would mean that the Blue Jays make the playoffs.

I don't think that's true at all. Josh Towers not sucking is not enough to put this team over the top. It will no doubt help, and I can understand being optimistic about your favorite team (depending on that team), but Josh Towers posting an ERA of 4.70 for 176 innings in not going to make them the best team in the division.
   79. kwarren Posted: January 13, 2007 at 06:08 AM (#2279884)
Well that's a bold gauntlet to throw down. I know you said the same thing in the Johnson thread but a lot of people would have missed it. Since the Blue Jays are my favourite team this is a bit of a pickle. I would love it if you were right because it would mean that the Blue Jays make the playoffs. So I'm going to pass on this particular opportunity to rail against DIPS and indulge in the fantasy that the Blue Jays win the division with Towers posting an ERA under 4.50.

Gaelen

Are there any pitchers with high BABIP and low strand rates that you think were unlucky? Or do you just assume that they all pitched badly? In seems to me that you believe that ERA is a good measure of how well or poorly a pitcher has pitched, when in reality nothing could be further from the truth. A pitcher's ERA will never give a true indication of his skill if his BABIP and strand rates, which are indicators of luck, deviate significantly from the norm.

Tower's BABIP increased from .310 to .380 in 2006. This is bad luck. His strand rate declined from 74% to 63% in 2006. This is bad luck. He HR% on fly balls went from .09 to .14 in 2006. His strikeout rate went from 4.6 per 9 IP to 5.2. This is a skill improvement that got lost in all the hysteria about his ERA.

Shandler summed up Tower's 2006 season very well. "The blame is threefold. BABIP, strand rate, and hr/f rate all out of his control". Why should we assume that all this bad luck will continue when it wasn't a problem in his previous seasons, until 2006. His xERA gives us a good idea of what his actual ERA should be assuming normal luck.

Zips is also predicting big improvements from Towers and Johnson as are most other projection systems. Are they all crazy? Are you the one who's got it right?
   80. AROM Posted: January 13, 2007 at 06:45 AM (#2279897)
His strikeout rate went from 4.6 per 9 IP to 5.2. This is a skill improvement that got lost in all the hysteria about his ERA.

No its not. Not even close. He struck out more batters per 3 outs recorded ONLY because more of the balls in play became hits and not outs. His strikeouts per batter fell from 12.8% to 11.9%.
   81. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 13, 2007 at 06:47 AM (#2279898)
His strikeout rate went from 4.6 per 9 IP to 5.2. This is a skill improvement that got lost in all the hysteria about his ERA.

This is not an improvement, let alone a characteristic attributable to skill in this case. Had his BABIP shot up to 1.000, his K/9 could have increased all the way to 27!

Since his BABIP increased enormously, he faced many more batters per 9 and thus increased his K/9 essentially by default. A better indication of skill would be his K/BB rate, which plummeted from 3.86 in 2005 to 2.06 in his appearances with the Blue Jays this past season. It seems that he could conceivably meet his projection because he performed very well in 2005 and his minor league track record has been quite good, but there really aren't many positives to take away from his 2006 in Toronto.
   82. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 13, 2007 at 06:50 AM (#2279900)
Looks like AROM beat me to it. Oh well. I concur.
   83. Gaelan Posted: January 13, 2007 at 07:25 AM (#2279923)
Are there any pitchers with high BABIP and low strand rates that you think were unlucky? Or do you just assume that they all pitched badly? In seems to me that you believe that ERA is a good measure of how well or poorly a pitcher has pitched, when in reality nothing could be further from the truth. A pitcher's ERA will never give a true indication of his skill if his BABIP and strand rates, which are indicators of luck, deviate significantly from the norm.


Well, I actually half agree with this. Josh Towers had an ERA last year somewhere around nine. I agree a substantial amount of bad luck was necessary for him to past an ERA that high. I also agree that he should have no problem improving on that ERA next year. I also agree that ERA is a terrible indicator (especially in a single season) of either a pitcher's real ability or how he actually pitched that season.

What I disagree with is the following. While his BABIP should improve there is no reason to believe it will improve all the way to league average. While his HR/FB rate was really bad and should improve it will not regress towards 10%. xERA substitutes league average BABIP and league average HR/FB rates and I see no reason why you should choose those numbers since there is even less evidence that all pitchers have the same percentage in this area than there is with BABIP. Not all flyballs are created equal. That leaves strand rate. Now here I'm mostly in agreement. In most cases strand rate is completely a function of timing and not skill. However bad pitchers are going to have worse strand rates than good pitchers so if one and two are correct then you can't regress strand rate to the league average either even if there is no particular skill for pitching with men on base.

So I'll sum up my views on Towers. He was extremely unlucky last season. This poor luck caused him to have a season of historic proportions. However, even with bad luck he was still a bad pitcher. Now this doesn't mean it's impossible for him to regain precise command and become average again for a little while. But his margin for error will always be extremely small and when he misses he is going to get hit and I'm betting his BABIP and HR/FB percentage will always be above average. Still there is some room for optimism. If he gets his BABIP down to .320 and cuts his walks in half he can be acceptable.

On the topic of whom I think was truly unlucky with their BABIP and strand rates. That's a tough question because I think you have to see a pitcher to know whether they were unlucky and obviously most pitchers I haven't seen that much. However, for the record, here are some pitchers that I think we're unlucky last year and expect to improve:

Josh Beckett (tough case because he was both lucky (low BABIP) and unlucky (high hr/fb and low strand rates), I think the first is more legit than the second two)
Kyle Davies (another tough case because he got hurt and I have no idea about his recovery, but I believe he's better than he's shown and he fits the criteria of being "unlucky" in every area.)
Scott Baker (any of the young pitchers would be good bets to improve because improve is what young players do. However I've seen Baker pitch very well so I know that he has the ability. I'm not sure what happened to him last year)
Matt Garza (another young pitcher who was both a little unlucky and a good bet to improve legitimately)


It's tough to find guys though because most guys with BABIP over .330 in a significant amount of innings legitmately suck. You won't find me betting on Russ Ortiz or Sidney Ponson.
   84. AROM Posted: January 13, 2007 at 07:37 AM (#2279928)
If Russ Ortiz got lucky and had a .250 BABIP he would still suck. He's pretty much at the bottom of any kind of pitching skill you can measure.
   85. Craggy Island Padres Posted: January 13, 2007 at 04:09 PM (#2280042)
I'm a couple days late to the thread but a blue Nady jersey from Cal for me.
   86. kwarren Posted: January 13, 2007 at 05:52 PM (#2280086)
On the topic of whom I think was truly unlucky with their BABIP and strand rates. That's a tough question because I think you have to see a pitcher to know whether they were unlucky and obviously most pitchers I haven't seen that much.

This is very contrived. It basically says, "I know what I saw so stats be damned". It's because that it's has been statistically shown that the human observation is incapable of discerning good performance from bad peformance in terms of baseball players, and of separating luck from skill that we have developed these metrics to compare performance. Another big problem is that nobody can watch everbody on a regular basis and the way we rate players is to compare them to each other. A good defender or pitcher is only good because he is better than most of his peers. If we don't get to see all of his peers how can we tell without the use of stats the eliminate the impact of good or bad luck if a player is good or not.
   87. Dixiechick Posted: January 13, 2007 at 09:19 PM (#2280161)
Who was the last pitcher to give up 1.5 h/ip and 2.5 hr/9inn to be called 'unlucky'? When you're giving up more than 1 homerun every four innings, I don't think that speaks to 'luck'.


Josh was the luckiest man alive. He was signed to a 2 year deal when Ricciardi absurdly bought out two years of arbitration eligibility for a guy with a very inconsistent history, and will likely receive 5 million for the 62 horrible innings he pitched.

How was he 'unlucky'?

Good to see all those wanting a jersey chiming in. How about those who truly believe Towers will toss 176 ip with a 4.70 era agree to pay just $10 to the United Way, or similar secular charity if he doesn't. That's about 10-1 odds. Honor system. That way everyone can enjoy the opportunity to put their money where their mouth is. We'll have the thread at season's end to help remind us all.
   88. Darren Posted: January 13, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2280167)
I'm in. Big Papi please.
   89. MSI Posted: January 13, 2007 at 09:51 PM (#2280170)
But with Marcum, Janssen, McGowan, Ismael Ramirez, Davis Romero, Ty Taubenheim, etc. as candidates for the 5th spot, isn't Josh Towers hope for a rebound simply a bonus? If he could be a league average innings eater that'd be great because the rotation is sure to have injury problems, and he could step in. Otherwise, its moot. But I agree, he did SO badly that it is more likely a talent issue than a luck issue. A 5.50 ERA doesn't really cut it, if that's what his level will be like next year (I hope). It sure isn't as bad though. And FWIW, he looked more confident at the end of the season in 3 whole innings. Maybe his "this is my last contract again" mentality will help him. His AAA numbers are decent, no? Guys have gotten by before with fringy stuff.
   90. MSI Posted: January 13, 2007 at 09:55 PM (#2280171)
Towers career minor league numbers.

IP 1007.1
W 56-46
ERA 3.96
K/9 6.48
BB/9 1.30
HR/9 1.02
H/9 9.91
WHIP 1.25
   91. Random Transaction Generator Posted: January 13, 2007 at 10:01 PM (#2280172)
How about those who truly believe Towers will toss 176 ip with a 4.70 era agree to pay just $10 to the United Way, or similar secular charity if he doesn't. That's about 10-1 odds. Honor system.

A black Halladay jersey, #32.
And I'm making a donation to the United Way in advance.

Oh, about the projections...I think Thomas will hit more than 25 HR.
   92. MSI Posted: January 13, 2007 at 10:05 PM (#2280174)
BTW, reliever wise, via Inherited Runners statistic last year:

BJ Ryan: 1/29 = 3.5% - (Why Justin Speier's ERA was so good, considering his 47% IR scored)
Brandon League: 4/9 = 44% - (is this a small sample size? Hopefully he can be lights with IR too)
Jeremy Accardo: 13/31 = 42% - (also not good considering
Scott Downs: 11/39 = 28% (very very solid. He was horrible as a spot starter last year. As reliever had a 2.77 ERA...9.39 ERA as starter)
Jason Frasor: 18/37 = 49% (pretty bad, but he came back late in the year with a new slider and no curve, and he can throw hard).
Davis Romero: 0/7 = 0% (I really hope he makes the team over Tallet. Please God?)
Brian Tallet: 13/44 = 30% (not bad, but...)
Rosario: 0/4 = 0% (his stats in the majors were bad last year, but good in AAA. With his heat and solid 2 pitches, I think he can be a good part of the pen).

McGowan: 5/9 = 55%
Josh Towers: 0/2 = 0%
Ty Taubenheim: 0/2 = 0%
   93. Darren Posted: January 13, 2007 at 10:52 PM (#2280186)
And Eve, I can't speak for anyone else, but I had no plans on holding you to that. Just joking around. I assumed you were just emphasizing your surprise. If you want to make the bet with the $10 donation deal, that's cool. If not, also cool.
   94. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: January 13, 2007 at 11:44 PM (#2280192)
Longtime Towers booster here -

would love a Tigers home, Granderson #28!
   95. cal Posted: January 14, 2007 at 12:17 AM (#2280197)
Wow, Red Sox away Bellhorn jersey would be nice.
   96. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2007 at 02:22 AM (#2280228)
Considering it would cost him about 5 grand, I think it'd be unreasonable to hold E.P. to what wasn't a serious wager.
   97. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: January 14, 2007 at 02:27 AM (#2280229)
NEVER!
   98. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 14, 2007 at 02:52 AM (#2280237)
Bellhorn here also. I don't know who this cal guy is, but he's horning in on my racket!
   99. Who Swished In Your Cornflakes? Posted: January 15, 2007 at 02:38 AM (#2280510)
Hey, a buddy of mine keeps $1,000 in his wallet each week. It's possible, though unlikely. I'm in. If Towers succeeds, a Pujols home jersey for me. If Towers fails, $20 to the United Way from me.
   100. MSI Posted: January 15, 2007 at 03:32 AM (#2280525)
100.

I'd probably go Liriano or Lind.
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