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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, January 12, 2007

2007 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Frank Thomas         dh 39 .255 .370 .522 92 314 51 80 9 0 25 74 53 65 0 0
Lyle Overbay*        1b 30 .301 .374 .491 156 564 82 170 45 1 20 91 66 106 3 2
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b/dh - .283 .359 .498—————————————————————
Troy Glaus           3b 30 .249 .353 .501 142 507 87 126 26 0 34 98 80 137 2 1
Vernon Wells         cf 28 .285 .344 .501 150 601 86 171 34 3 30 103 54 89 9 2
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.282 .352 .477—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.279 .348 .472—————————————————————
Adam Lind*          lf 23 .296 .350 .466 152 541 55 160 39 1 17 80 44 116 2 1
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.278 .344 .465—————————————————————
Reed Johnson         lf 30 .286 .346 .423 130 437 67 125 26 2 10 53 26 81 6 2
Matt Stairs*        1b 39 .253 .337 .441 122 372 42 94 23 1 15 64 45 57 0 0
Alexis Rios         rf 26 .282 .333 .444 140 496 69 140 31 5 13 72 37 98 13 5
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.275 .337 .437—————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.278 .335 .421—————————————————————
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.277 .329 .418—————————————————————
AVERAGE C———————c——- .267 .327 .419—————————————————————
Gregg Zaun#          c   36 .242 .347 .382 91 285 38 69 16 0 8 39 44 48 1 1
Kevin Barker*        1b 31 .240 .319 .419 136 470 53 113 34 1 16 66 52 133 1 1
Chip Cannon*        1b 25 .241 .303 .442 138 477 52 115 25 1 23 69 38 158 0 1
Russ Adams*          2b 26 .260 .330 .380 141 511 73 133 29 4 8 59 51 62 9 3
Aaron Hill           2b 25 .268 .330 .371 150 529 71 142 29 2 7 56 45 59 2 1
Ryan Roberts         2b 26 .244 .316 .382 116 406 49 99 24 1 10 47 41 105 4 2
John-Ford Griffin*    lf 27 .229 .293 .424 105 375 52 86 22 0 17 64 31 111 1 1
Ryan Patterson       lf 24 .256 .293 .423 147 546 65 140 35 1 18 73 27 119 4 3
Tony Miller         cf 26 .243 .337 .356 97 334 54 81 12 1 8 26 46 101 10 7
Curtis Thigpen       c   24 .243 .315 .366 114 399 46 97 24 2 7 39 40 66 3 1
Chad Mottola         rf 35 .247 .290 .411 112 409 43 101 23 1 14 54 22 100 3 3
Dustin Majewski*      cf 25 .220 .306 .379 136 472 59 104 26 2 15 54 57 115 5 4
Jeff Duncan*        cf 28 .253 .325 .353 97 292 40 74 13 2 4 22 27 74 11 8
Royce Clayton         ss 37 .263 .315 .351 140 499 56 131 29 3 3 43 37 108 9 4
Rob Cosby           3b 26 .250 .286 .397 122 436 38 109 25 0 13 55 19 94 0 2
John Hattig#        3b 27 .246 .299 .359 99 329 33 81 23 1 4 30 24 104 0 0
Jason Smith*        ss 29 .240 .284 .404 91 250 28 60 11 3 8 30 14 70 5 3
Jason Phillips       c   30 .236 .288 .351 102 313 28 74 15 0 7 40 20 44 0 1
John McDonald         ss 32 .245 .296 .304 77 184 25 45 6 1 1 17 12 27 4 1
Robinzon Diaz         c   23 .246 .269 .309 112 414 43 102 16 2 2 36 12 34 4 1
Sergio Santos         ss 23 .197 .234 .271 133 483 42 95 19 1 5 35 22 124 1 2

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Adam Lind
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .314 .372 .515 162 577 68 181 48 1 22 104 53 113 2 0
Mean         .296 .350 .466 152 541 55 160 39 1 17 80 44 116 2 1
Pessimistic (15%) .272 .319 .415 118 419 37 114 27 0 11 51 28 100 1 0  

Top Near-Age Comps: Clint Hurdle, Whitey Lockman

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
B.J. Ryan*          31   2.05   5   1 72   0   79.0   53   18   5   27 107
Roy Halladay         30   3.20 14   6 28 28   191.0 186   68 18   33 124
Brandon League         24   3.38   5   3 69   0   96.0   96   36   6   24   60
A.J. Burnett         30   3.63 13   7 27 27   171.0 163   69 15   54 137
Jeremy Accardo         25   3.69   5   3 70   0   78.0   76   32   7   22   63
Jason Frasor         29   3.77   6   3 67   0   74.0   66   31   8   32   70
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.31———————————————————————-
Scott Downs*          31   4.33   5   5 44 13   108.0 109   52 15   35   82
John Thomson         33   4.47   7   7 24 23   137.0 146   68 14   41   81
Blaine Neal           29   4.60   2   2 37   0   45.0   48   23   7   16   35
Jamie Vermilyea       25   4.67   6   6 36 15   131.0 150   68 18   32   63
Davis Romero*        24   4.70   9 10 36 17   138.0 152   72 21   38   87
Josh Towers           30   4.70 11 11 30 29   176.0 207   92 28   32   92
Casey Janssen         25   4.71 10 11 29 28   151.0 177   79 20   28   75
Gustavo Chacin*        26   4.77 10 11 30 30   166.0 175   88 24   69 101
Matt Roney           27   4.81   4   4 50   0   73.0   74   39 10   25   55
Beau Kemp           26   4.81   5   6 56   0   86.0   92   46   8   33   40
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.84———————————————————————-
Francisco Rosario       26   4.94   4   4 30 15   93.0   97   51 16   37   71
Jean Machi           25   4.94   5   7 45   8   102.0 103   56 11   58   78
Shaun Marcum         25   4.94   7   8 37 23   153.0 165   84 30   47 118
Jesse Litsch         22   5.05   9 11 29 28   171.0 215   96 27   22   81
Ty Taubenheim         24   5.27   7 10 30 25   152.0 176   89 29   43   81
Dustin McGowan         25   5.29   4   6 34 17   114.0 120   67 17   53   87
Kyle Yates           24   5.29   8 10 33 25   165.0 191   97 29   48   95
Josh Banks           24   5.42   8 13 29 29   176.0 210 106 46   23 108
Brian Tallet*        29   5.44   3   5 43   8   86.0   93   52 17   33   54
Ricky Romero*        22   5.50   5   7 23 23   126.0 143   77 23   46   70
Ismael Ramirez         26   5.59   7 11 26 25   145.0 170   90 31   41   80
Jeremi Gonzalez       32   5.70   3   6 29 13   101.0 116   64 21   29   58
Ryan Houston         27   5.74   3   6 46   3   80.0   83   51 13   50   65
Brian Wolfe           26   5.82   3   5 30   5   65.0   77   42 12   23   33
Tracy Thorpe         26   5.88   2   4 61   0   72.0   77   47 16   37   59
David Purcey*        25   6.00   7 12 30 30   156.0 166 104 24 102 116

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Gustavo Chacin
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  4.04 13 10 33 33 187 185   84 23   70 119
Mean           4.77 10 11 30 30 166 175   88 24   69 101
Pessimistic (15%)  5.78   6 11 25 25 134 153   86 25   63   79

Top Near-Age Comps:  Ken Brett, Chris Nabholz

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Since I’m done the projections, other than new projections that need to be added,
players are now noted with their current teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:01 AM | 120 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: January 15, 2007 at 07:37 AM (#2280577)
1944 Stan Musial. (Size 48!)
   102. AJMcCringleberry Posted: January 15, 2007 at 08:32 AM (#2280581)
David Wright jersey for me.
   103. Honkie Kong Posted: January 15, 2007 at 09:46 AM (#2280588)
How about guys who posted before he made the offer? That sounds like a fair compromise :-)
   104. Hammered to the Gap Posted: January 15, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2280667)
D. Lee road jersey for me, and I'm in for $25 if he doesn't make it.

And who's backing up Zaun this year? Phillips? Seems like a pretty big drop after the last few years.
   105. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: January 17, 2007 at 01:09 AM (#2281477)
Wait people were gonna hold him to it?



Now that's a bit much.
   106. Daryn Posted: January 17, 2007 at 02:24 AM (#2281504)
I'll also pony up $10 to the United Way if Towers fails.
   107. MSI Posted: January 17, 2007 at 05:12 AM (#2281590)
No no there's no way anyone holds him up to it. And it's not gonna happen anyway. It's funny to see everyone's favourite Jersey. Here's an idea: everyone goes and buys their own desired jersey, whether the Cano or Mike Schmidt or what have you.
   108. Jose Molina wants a nickname like "A-Rod" Posted: January 17, 2007 at 10:59 PM (#2282014)
im curious about how they were planning to hold him up to it.
   109. If theres a bunt w'all remember twas back in ol 92 Posted: January 17, 2007 at 11:13 PM (#2282024)
Honour System
   110. Johnny Tuttle Posted: January 17, 2007 at 11:36 PM (#2282031)
Jessie Barfield, 1985 home version

Goodness what a year. And he made those two catches.
   111. Benny Distefano's Mitt Posted: January 18, 2007 at 08:50 PM (#2282689)
Francisco Liriano here. Autographed. With his good arm. Made out to Tommy John.
   112. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 21, 2007 at 03:47 PM (#2283834)
We're just having a little fun - EP would have to be nuts to make a $10,000 bet with a bunch of internet goofs.

If it were real, I'd totally ask for a game-used 1903 Ed Delahanty Washington jersey, signed by all 5 Delahanty brothers.
   113. blackbearem Posted: January 25, 2007 at 08:09 PM (#2286348)
Please add Michael MacDonald to your Zip Projections.
   114. Rusty Priske Posted: January 25, 2007 at 08:30 PM (#2286357)
Wow, what would I actually want if I could have any jersey...

Current would be Doc. Classic would be Old Hoss Radbourne... probably Providence.
   115. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 25, 2007 at 09:47 PM (#2286378)
We're just having a little fun - EP would have to be nuts to make a $10,000 bet with a bunch of internet goofs.

Thats mgl with the 10k bets.
   116. John Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: January 27, 2007 at 04:37 AM (#2287090)
Eve P, my $10 to the Hamilton United Way is already in. I'll take a 1915 Brooklyn Tip-Tops #8 with KAUFF and ahistorical name-and-numbering be damned.

Or alternatively, given that you'll never find it, a Tony Fernandez #1 will do fine.
   117. John Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: January 27, 2007 at 04:40 AM (#2287091)
OK, for whatever reason my last one didn't take. Eve P, my $10 to the Hamilton United Way is already in and you can e-mail me if you want the receipt. I'll take a Brooklyn Tip-Tops with #8 and KAUFF on it, and ahistoricism be damned.

Or alternatively, since you'll never find it, I'll take a Tony Fernandez #1.
   118. NTNgod Posted: January 27, 2007 at 04:41 AM (#2287092)
Please add Michael MacDonald to your Zip Projections.


Post-Doobie Brothers, or with Doobie Brothers?
   119. John Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: January 27, 2007 at 04:47 AM (#2287093)
Post-Doobie Brothers, or with Doobie Brothers?

"Hi! I'm Hollywood Steve. You've caught me making love. Tonight's thread is about a gentleman's wager that took ten years, a pop music revolution, and 300 baseball jerseys to settle."
   120. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: February 19, 2007 at 10:20 PM (#2300177)
If Josh Towers throws 176 innings with a 4.70 era, I will personally buy everyone who posts in this thread a jersey of your favorite team.


Blue Jays with a #50 please.

Best Regards

John
Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2

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