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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, January 12, 2007

2007 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Nick Johnson*        1b 28 .285 .414 .482 137 467 81 133 39 1 17 67 95 89 6 4
Ryan Zimmerman       3b 22 .303 .362 .505 153 574 86 174 49 2 21 95 53 107 7 7
Ryan Church*        cf 28 .271 .356 .468 124 365 52 99 23 2 15 59 45 89 5 1
Austin Kearns         rf 27 .261 .353 .467 139 495 78 129 32 2 22 76 65 129 5 3
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.268 .346 .453—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.267 .339 .443—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.264 .334 .428—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.263 .331 .421—————————————————————
Felipe Lopez#        ss 27 .269 .346 .394 153 591 91 159 29 3 13 60 70 122 26 9
Chris Snelling*      cf 25 .262 .338 .408 92 309 44 81 17 2 8 41 30 66 4 4
Larry Broadway*      1b 26 .258 .321 .421 122 423 47 109 22 1 15 61 38 95 3 1
Alex Escobar         cf 28 .256 .319 .413 81 281 36 72 13 2 9 37 23 78 2 2
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.261 .323 .402—————————————————————
Kory Casto*          3b 25 .240 .326 .389 146 488 59 117 27 2 14 59 59 107 4 4
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.264 .321 .388—————————————————————
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.263 .315 .384—————————————————————
D’Angelo Jimenez#      2b 29 .246 .333 .352 111 386 50 95 21 1 6 41 50 57 7 4
AVERAGE C———————- c——.252 .312 .383—————————————————————
Michael Restovich     rf 28 .235 .295 .414 125 408 57 96 21 2 16 55 31 111 2 1
Abraham Nunez#        rf 30 .237 .315 .367 96 316 43 75 15 1 8 43 35 68 3 3
Danny Ardoin         c   32 .237 .325 .350 95 240 35 57 12 0 5 23 25 88 0 1
Darnell McDonald       cf 28 .251 .308 .374 113 414 46 104 25 1 8 34 31 98 10 6
Brian Schneider*      c   30 .253 .317 .347 124 403 33 102 18 1 6 45 36 66 1 1
Robert Fick*        1b 33 .246 .317 .341 70 179 18 44 6 1 3 19 18 28 1 0
Joey Thurston*        2b 27 .257 .309 .375 130 421 47 108 22 5 6 36 28 59 8 7
Bernie Castro#        2b 27 .266 .316 .320 116 406 55 108 13 3 1 28 28 49 21 6
Juan Brito           c   27 .244 .296 .362 78 246 30 60 11 0 6 28 17 54 1 1
Josh Wilson         ss 26 .243 .301 .361 126 449 60 109 22 2 9 41 36 97 11 8
Frank Diaz           cf 23 .248 .276 .368 132 487 53 121 29 1 9 46 17 69 6 6
Nook Logan#          cf 27 .247 .298 .329 115 368 52 91 14 5 2 21 25 81 23 13
Tony Blanco         rf 25 .208 .272 .339 60 168 16 35 7 0 5 19   8 41 1 0
Jesus Flores         c   22 .214 .263 .355 146 504 45 108 29 0 14 53 26 155 1 1
Cristian Guzman#      ss 29 .240 .279 .327 138 495 58 119 23 4 4 38 27 74 6 4
Melvin Dorta         ss 25 .239 .278 .322 129 422 47 101 18 1 5 30 23 37 21 12
Wayne Lydon         cf 26 .234 .285 .312 143 535 65 125 16 7 4 36 37 128 30 18

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Ryan Zimmerman
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .325 .391 .568 162 609 106 198 58 3 28 125 66 98 10 6
Mean         .303 .362 .505 153 574 86 174 49 2 21 95 53 107 7 7
Pessimistic (15%) .285 .338 .452 129 484 62 138 37 1 14 66 39 97 4 7

Top Near-Age Comps: Adrian Beltre, Freddie Lindstrom

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Chad Cordero         25   3.26   7   3 74   0   80.0   67   29 12   26   76
Luis Ayala           29   3.34   8   5 58   0   62.0   67   23   5   14   42
Jon Rauch           28   3.67   4   2 65   0   76.0   69   31 10   28   66
Micah Bowie*          32   3.70   2   1 41   0   56.0   49   23   3   31   44
John Patterson         29   3.82   7   5 25 25   146.0 135   62 18   53 130
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———3.88———————————————————————-
Jermaine van Buren     26   4.21   3   3 54   0   62.0   54   29   5   34   52
Shawn Hill           26   4.27   7   6 19 19   99.0 108   47   8   29   50
Saul Rivera           29   4.28   3   2 53   1   80.0   82   38   7   36   51
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.37———————————————————————-
Billy Traber*        27   4.50   9 10 32 26   158.0 174   79 18   41   88
Beltran Perez         25   4.53   7   7 39 13   129.0 134   65 15   54   80
Emiliano Fruto         23   4.55   4   5 59   1   95.0   89   48 11   49   76
Michael O’Connor*      26   4.56   8   9 27 26   156.0 160   79 23   57 103
Ray King*            33   4.60   3   3 73   0   47.0   51   24   4   20   26
Brett Campbell         25   4.62   4   5 58   0   76.0   77   39   9   34   56
Matt Chico*          24   4.63   9 10 30 30   177.0 186   91 27   59 127
Ryan Wagner           24   4.71   3   3 55   0   63.0   67   33   7   28   44
Garrett Mock         24   4.72   9 10 29 29   183.0 198   96 26   56 126
Jason Bergmann         25   4.72   5   6 55   8   120.0 125   63 18   46   94
Levale Speigner       26   4.89   3   4 46   0   70.0   78   38 10   23   35
Chris Booker         30   5.02   3   4 53   0   61.0   54   34 10   39   75
Tim Redding           29   5.04   8 11 28 25   159.0 168   89 22   56   90
Arnie Munoz*          25   5.05   6   8 35 12   107.0 105   60 16   45   94
Josh Hall           26   5.16   6 11 26 26   157.0 174   90 23   54   79
Jim Magrane           28   5.17   7 12 26 22   148.0 171   85 20   52   74
Jesus Colome         29   5.19   2   3 40   0   52.0   55   30   7   25   33
Joel Hanrahan         25   5.23   7   9 26 25   136.0 133   79 19   78   96
Colby Lewis           27   5.28   5   8 25 23   150.0 176   88 25   46   70
Felix Diaz           26   5.30   7   8 48 22   107.0 117   63 14   26   88
Mike Bacsik*          29   5.43   4 10 31 18   126.0 144   76 24   30   70
Chris Schroder         28   5.54   2   5 38   0   52.0   56   32 10   26   39
Winston Abreu         30   5.95   3   7 46   1   65.0   67   43 14   35   60
Bill White*          28   6.11   0   2 52   0   56.0   58   38   8   39   46
Chris Michalak*        36   6.40   5 14 31 23   149.0 184 106 35   45   68
Mike Hinckley*        24   6.52   4 10 27 27   167.0 207 121 29   80   62

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Matt Chico
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.78 12   9 33 33 200 194   84 24   58 155  
Mean           4.63   9 10 30 30 177 186   91 27   59 127
Pessimistic (15%)  5.54   6 10 25 25 143 163   88 26   53   97

Top Near-Age Comps:  Dave McNally, Dave Fleming

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Since I’m done the projections, other than new projections that need to be added,
players are now noted with their current teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 04:41 AM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Dan The Mediocre Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:29 AM (#2279104)
Can you add the league average thing to all the previous teams? I'd like to see how many Cubs starters are below average.
   2. bibigon Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:12 AM (#2279116)
Why is .263/.331/.421 a better line than .270/.333/.421 - for that matter, why is .258/.321/.421 better either?
   3. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:12 AM (#2279117)
I guess you weren't lying when you implied that ZiPS likes the Nationals. The offense is definitely better than expected, Cristian Guzman notwithstanding. Is that the single worst projection for a probable starting position player ever? Now that you've added the league averages, could you put in some sort of "worst ever" line for perspective on Guzman? The 22-year-old Rule 5 catcher from the Mets is above him.
   4. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:35 AM (#2279127)
Why is .263/.331/.421 a better line than .270/.333/.421 - for that matter, why is .258/.321/.421 better either?

The average CF line must have gotten messed up. There's no way he's a better hitter than the average 3B.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:39 AM (#2279129)
I actually didn't mean to imply ZiPS like the Nationals. When I said ZiPS had hated 3 of the last 4 teams alphabetically, I meant 3 of the last 4 teams posted alphabetically up to that point. I hadn't even done the Nats by that point.

But ZiPS certainly likes the Nats front-end position talent. And it should - Johnson/Zimmerman/Church/Kearns/Lopez is a pretty good offensive core. Predicably, the Nats are finding ways to sabotage this immediately, with Acta already stating that Nook Logan goes into the spring as the starting CF.

Bibi - I might have put a line or two out of order (well, not might, did), so I'll h ave to fix that.
   6. Spute Posted: January 12, 2007 at 10:54 AM (#2279202)
Is the league average gap between the American and National league really this large?
   7. NBarnes Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:23 PM (#2279226)
Chris Snelling is not a CF, much as we here in Seattle miss him. Also, how 'bout that Kearns trade? And that Zimmerman kid can hit a bit.

Chris Snelling .262 .338 .408
Jose Vidro .279 .344 .382


Nice trade, Bill.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 02:39 PM (#2279230)
Is the league average gap between the American and National league really this large?

No, you're looking at the gap between parks. RFK is a very low-offense park, Skydome is not.
   9. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:01 PM (#2279238)
Think I'll take the under on the Patterson projected 146 IP. I just traded Pedro Feliz for him in a Roto league so I'm hoping for the over but his right arm is pretty shredded at this point.
   10. TOLAXOR Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:41 PM (#2279263)
IS IT ZIPS OR WASHINGTON THAT DOESN'T LIKE LF???!!!
   11. JPWF13 Posted: January 12, 2007 at 03:51 PM (#2279271)
Why is .263/.331/.421 a better line than .270/.333/.421 - for that matter, why is .258/.321/.421 better either?


I think Dan uses RC/27 to rank them- result is not always the same as OPS or OPS+
RC/27 culd also be using sb/cs/gdp/sh/sf info.
   12. a wider scope of derision Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:08 PM (#2279406)
Let the games begin:

Gordon .275/.361/.473 (6.2 RC27)
Zimm .303/.362/.505 (6.5 RC27)

Zimmerman's looking good. I don't buy Gordon will be stealing 15 bags in the bigs, either.
   13. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: January 12, 2007 at 07:42 PM (#2279500)
If Zimmerman hits 58 doubles I'll have my first bit of respect for this team since they moved from Montreal.
Anybody see him getting better (or already being) than David Wright? How would you compare/contrast the two?

Any team that has Nook Logan as the top CF on its organizational depth chart while dangling Ryan Church in a few trade talks just doesn't get it.
   14. Nobody ##### with DeJesus Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:23 PM (#2279536)
The offense is definitely better than expected, Cristian Guzman notwithstanding. Is that the single worst projection for a probable starting position player ever?

If Guzman's the starting SS, does that mean Lopez starts at 2B?
   15. bibigon Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:37 PM (#2279553)
Anybody see him getting better (or already being) than David Wright? How would you compare/contrast the two?


He is probably a better player than David Wright right now if their defensive ratings are reasonable estimates of their abilities.

It's kind of amazing that David Wright is probably the only the 3rd best at the position in the division. He might also be the 3rd best in baseball, but that's another matter.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:49 PM (#2279565)
Don't wake up the Met fans!
   17. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 12, 2007 at 09:13 PM (#2279594)
If Guzman's the starting SS, does that mean Lopez starts at 2B?

It looks like that's the plan. Here's an excerpt from an mlb.com article last week:

"By trading second baseman Jose Vidro to the Mariners and announcing that Felipe Lopez will switch from shortstop to second base, the Nationals sent a strong message to the public that Cristian Guzman has recovered from his right shoulder injury and will be their regular shortstop in 2007."
   18. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 13, 2007 at 07:06 PM (#2280117)
It's kind of amazing that David Wright is probably the only the 3rd best at the position in the division.


4th.
   19. Raskolnikov Posted: January 13, 2007 at 08:05 PM (#2280137)
4th.

Funny. Only way, you can make Wright 4th is if you contort your set of standards each time. Wright is the best of the group in all around sets of skills, so there's almost no way to drop him vis-a-vis the other 3. Zimmerman is maturing as Larry is aging.
   20. ian Posted: January 13, 2007 at 08:12 PM (#2280141)
Funny. Only way, you can make Wright 4th is if you contort your set of standards each time. Wright is the best of the group in all around sets of skills

I'll take Zimmerman and Cabrera.
   21. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: January 13, 2007 at 09:22 PM (#2280163)
I'll take Zimmerman and Cabrera.

Me too.
   22. Astro-Bonilla Posted: January 14, 2007 at 03:06 AM (#2280241)
"By trading second baseman Jose Vidro to the Mariners and announcing that Felipe Lopez will switch from shortstop to second base, the Nationals sent a strong message to the public that they are more likely to land on Mars this season than they are to win the Nl East.
   23. Astro-Bonilla Posted: January 19, 2007 at 11:28 PM (#2283338)
Does anybody know why Ryan Church is still a National? They have no disposition towards actually using him, and I'm sure a lot of smart GMs would love to have him.
   24. jgang01 Posted: February 13, 2007 at 06:30 PM (#2296887)
how is larry broadway going to hit all these hrs when he's out for the year?
   25. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: February 13, 2007 at 09:43 PM (#2297020)
Think we should have a name the Nationals 5 man starting rotation contest out of spring training. Besides Patterson is anyone pretty much guarenteed a spot?
   26. Dr. Vaux Posted: February 14, 2007 at 08:02 AM (#2297445)
Jerome Williams unless he shows up weighing 325 lbs. It's time for him to show what he has.
   27. BlastingsThrilledge Posted: February 18, 2007 at 03:27 PM (#2299616)
Broadway isnt out for the year, infact, he will probably be the starting 1b for the first two months of the season.

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