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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

2008 Minor League Translations

2008 zMLE Spreadsheet

Everyone from AAA down through Short-Season low-A leagues are included, hitting and pitching.  Fielding is to follow as I’m working on a rudimentary ZR with hit-by-location data from the amazing Jeff Sackmann.  I’ve updated my model since last offseason to eliminate a lot of the linearity in the standard translation models.

Dan Szymborski Posted: September 24, 2008 at 05:45 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. xanthan Posted: September 24, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2953059)
Thanks a bunch, Dan. I find myself using your zMLE worksheets quite a bit.
   2. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: September 24, 2008 at 07:37 PM (#2953136)
Is it possible to get a primer on how to interpet the data? Thanks for putting this together Dan!
   3. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: September 25, 2008 at 03:24 AM (#2954333)
Minor League ZR? Bless you, laddy. Bless you.
   4. Ted Roethke Posted: September 25, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2954589)
Thanks very much for this.
   5. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: September 25, 2008 at 01:52 PM (#2954593)
sweet sweet candy.
   6. philly Posted: September 25, 2008 at 09:54 PM (#2955246)
Excellent resource thanks. If it's not too ungracious to suggest an improvement, it would be great to have an additional column tagging the player by his league or at least level. I'd love to be able to sort by AAA, AA, etc.

If it's not too much trouble, I think that would add a lot.
   7. KJOK Posted: September 26, 2008 at 06:47 PM (#2957172)
Dan - Are there any major differences between your current methodology and that which you used in 2006?
   8. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: September 27, 2008 at 06:29 PM (#2958281)
Thanks as always Dan, as you know, I really appreciate these.

KJOK, I can't speak for Dan, but - yes, there are.

I haven't gotten to look through this as much as I'd like yet, but...
* I'd like to second the request to add league/level data.
* Any intention of putting on a worksheet whereby people could convert these numbers to other parks, like you did last offseason?
* Presumably, you're translating to their major league affiliate's park, not a neutral setting - right?
* I haven't gotten to do systematic testing (and, with a 2-year old, a 1-month old, and a busy work schedule - I might not get to for weeks/months), but I'm not seeing as much "spread" b/w AA and AAA pitcher's translations as I'd expect - too harsh on AAA and/or too soft on AA. This is probably an issue on my end of either sample size or faulty perception.
* Hitters numbers look pretty reasonable, though I wonder if HRs are discounted heavily enough and vice versa with other positive offensive contributions.
* One thing I think Dan does differently than other ME builders is regress BABIP pretty heavily. I'm not sure how I feel about this - it's probably better for predictive purposes, but that's not exactly what an MLE is. It's also a reason that you can get very different ERA values here than in other systems.
* Also, just to confirm, you're not using age - right? (And I'm sure body type and probably position are straight out.)

Any guess on when minor league ZR might be made available? That would be treeeeemendous.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 29, 2008 at 08:58 PM (#2960496)
Pretty sweet, Dan. Thanks.
   10. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 30, 2008 at 05:45 PM (#2961259)
Dan, you are the awesomest man ever. But you were even awesomer last year when it included ages. :)
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: September 30, 2008 at 05:52 PM (#2961272)
Dan, you are the awesomest man ever. But you were even awesomer last year when it included ages. :)

Oops!

Uh, 2007 age +1!

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