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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projection - Seattle Mariners

While the Mariners generally outperformed their projections this season (looking at SG’s 1000-season projections from the start of the year, ZiPS, PECOTA, DMB, and Chone gave the Mariners 76 wins), there are two things that you can’t forget about when looking at teams.  First, the Mariners were a very healthy team overall in 2007, as all of their starters, with the exception of Richie Sexson, played in a ton of games and pretty much every pitcher that wasn’t awful also avoided injury.  And when you play like Richie Sexson, being durable shouldn’t be considered a positive part of your performance.

Second, the Mariners, have a lot of OK-ish depth.  For example, if they continue to sour on Jose Lopez, they have non-embarrassing replacements.  It sounds like a small thing, but it should keep the Mariners from having one of those downright-depressing Baltimoreish seasons the next few years.  Players like Balentien and Lahair and Green and even Reed aren’t good (though Balentien may well be), but they could step in and not look like Scott Thorman or Brandon Fahey.  Yes, Willie Bloomquist goes to the plate too many times, but on some bizarre level, it’s far better to give Willie Bloomquist at-bats because you’re stupid rather than giving Willie Bloomquist at-bats because you’re smart.

The King Felix projection is pretty disappointing, so I hope ZiPS is wrong.  For most teams, that’d be a pretty positive projection for a very young starter, but I think a lot of people, myself included, kinda hoped he’d be fighting for Cy Youngs by now, not suffering occasional arm tweaks and allowing a confusing number of hits.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Ichiro Suzuki*        cf 34 .322 .372 .404 158 676 108 218 19 6 8 56 50 78 32 5
AVERAGE 1B/DH—————1b——.267 .351 .452—————————————————————
Raul Ibanez*        lf 36 .280 .351 .448 144 558 82 156 31 3 19 91 61 105 2 1
Adam Jones           cf 22 .276 .335 .477 142 482 60 133 23 4 22 70 35 116 9 7
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.266 .343 .432—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.265 .340 .435—————————————————————   
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.263 .337 .431—————————————————————
Jeff Clement*        c   24 .256 .335 .431 124 429 44 110 28 1 15 60 43 82 0 0
Adrian Beltre         3b 29 .268 .320 .450 153 604 83 162 40 2 22 90 43 108 9 3
Jose Guillen         rf 32 .262 .327 .432 132 500 68 131 23 1 20 74 34 104 2 0
Jose Vidro#          dh 33 .290 .357 .377 128 472 60 137 23 0 6 48 50 51 0 0
Richie Sexson         1b 33 .234 .323 .441 114 415 58 97 23 0 21 68 51 100 1 1
Ben Broussard*        1b 31 .267 .316 .443 116 345 44 92 17 1 14 47 23 87 1 1
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.261 .329 .407—————————————————————
Michael Morse         3b 26 .275 .329 .411 98 331 39 91 22 1 7 43 23 63 2 2
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.265 .330 .395—————————————————————
Wladimir Balentien     rf 23 .247 .319 .430 125 453 46 112 19 2 20 68 48 116 9 5
Kenji Johjima         c   32 .278 .316 .405 131 464 49 129 23 0 12 58 16 41 1 2
Yuniesky Betancourt*    ss 26 .288 .311 .412 155 541 70 156 32 4 9 58 18 52 7 4
Bryan LaHair*        1b 25 .259 .311 .409 131 491 55 127 30 1 14 69 36 116 1 1
Nick Green           2b 29 .258 .315 .416 103 341 36 88 17 2 11 38 25 90 3 3
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.263 .322 .388—————————————————————
AVERAGE C———————c——- .250 .315 .385—————————————————————
Jeremy Reed*        lf 27 .259 .312 .377 132 483 60 125 27 3 8 44 37 65 6 6
Jose Lopez           2b 24 .267 .302 .369 148 555 66 148 19 4 10 67 23 64 2 1
Jamie Burke         c   36 .245 .299 .360 76 253 26 62 14 0 5 28 17 36 0 1
Charlton Jimerson     cf 28 .225 .269 .385 119 405 38 91 19 2 14 41 21 170 17 7
Oswaldo Navarro       ss 23 .247 .308 .311 133 437 38 108 19 0 3 38 33 81 3 4
Willie Bloomquist     2b 30 .251 .300 .309 86 207 28 52 7 1 1 15 13 40 10 3
Rob Johnson         c   24 .240 .288 .337 116 404 40 97 19 1 6 35 26 69 5 6
Yung Chi Chen         2b 24 .234 .281 .316 110 414 47 97 16 3 4 40 24 72 10 5
Matt Tuiasosopo       3b 22 .210 .288 .281 125 420 42 88 16 1 4 33 42 120 3 4
Brant Ust           2b 29 .202 .248 .308 74 253 22 51 9 0 6 26 13 75 0 1
Rene Rivera         c   24 .185 .230 .261 86 287 18 53 13 0 3 26 14 78 1 1

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Ichiro!*                    Av Vg
Ibanez*                    Fr    
Jones                     Vg Av Vg
Clement*        Av                
Beltre                 Vg        
Guillen                       Pr
Vidro#            Pr Pr          
Sexson             Pr            
Broussard*          Fr       Fr    
Morse             Av   Av Fr Fr   Fr
Balentien                   Fr Pr Fr
Johjima         Vg                
Betancourt*          Av   Fr      
LaHair*            Av       Av    
Green               Fr Fr Fr Fr Pr Fr
Reed*                    Vg Av Vg
Lopez               Vg          
Burke         Fr   Fr            
Jimerson                   Vg Vg Vg
Navarro             Av   Av      
Bloomquist         Av Av Av Av Vg Fr Vg
Johnson         Av                
Chen               Av Av Fr      
Tuiasosopo             Av        
Ust               Av Av Av        
Rivera         Vg                

Player Spotlight - Adam Jones
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .302 .370 .543 149 506 74 153 29 6 27 92 44 111 11 5  
Mean         .276 .335 .477 142 482 60 133 23 4 22 70 35 116 9 7
Pessimistic (15%) .252 .303 .414 125 425 45 107 18 3 15 49 28 112 5 7

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ellis Burks, Vernon Wells

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
J.J. Putz           31   2.54   6   1 70   0   71.0   56   20   7   16   79
George Sherrill*      31   3.00   4   1 71   0   45.0   35   15   3   18   53
Brandon Morrow         23   3.92   5   3 71   0   78.0   73   34   4   46   70
Felix Hernandez       22   3.97 13 10 32 31   202.0 204   89 21   55 176
Eric O’Flaherty*      23   4.03   4   4 70   0   87.0   92   39   5   27   57
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.08———————————————————————-
Sean Green           29   4.14   4   4 62   0   76.0   80   35   4   36   49
Arthur Rhodes*        38   4.29   3   2 49   0   42.0   41   20   3   24   40
Kameron Mickolio       24   4.42   4   4 35   0   57.0   62   28   6   15   36
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.44———————————————————————-
Miguel Batista         37   4.52 10 11 36 28   183.0 203   92 18   73 111
Ryan Rowland-Smith*    25   4.56   4   4 51   0   81.0   85   41   9   32   66
Jarrod Washburn*      33   4.70 10 11 30 30   182.0 202   95 25   61 106
Jon Huber           26   4.80   4   5 57   0   75.0   86   40   9   18   46
Chris Reitsma         30   4.83   3   3 54   0   54.0   64   29   5   12   32
Jason Davis           28   4.94   5   6 32 10   93.0 104   51 11   39   63
Jorge Campillo         29   5.16   5   7 24 18   129.0 157   74 16   33   58
Robert Rohrbaugh*      24   5.25   8 13 28 27   161.0 192   94 25   41   82
Sean White           27   5.26   5   8 22 17   113.0 133   66 12   47   55
John Parrish*        30   5.30   2   2 51   0   56.0   62   33   4   39   45
Mark Lowe           25   5.40   2   3 52   0   55.0   60   33 10   29   39
Cha Seung Baek         28   5.48   5   9 24 23   133.0 158   81 22   40   72
Jeff Weaver           31   5.50   8 13 29 29   167.0 200 102 31   44 102
Justin Lehr           30   5.67   4   8 34 16   119.0 146   75 18   43   62
Andrew Baldwin         25   5.85   7 12 29 26   177.0 231 115 32   33   76
Horacio Ramirez*      28   5.86   5 11 24 24   132.0 163   86 20   54   55
Jake Woods*          26   6.00   4   7 35 14   117.0 141   78 20   41   65
Cesar Jimenez*        23   6.26   5 10 29 19   115.0 141   80 17   64   53
Ryan Feierabend*      22   6.27   6 15 35 31   178.0 228 124 34   60   88
Justin Thomas*        24   6.37   6 13 27 27   154.0 193 109 28   70   86
Cibney Bello         25   7.42   3 12 30 23   137.0 174 113 32   79   80

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Felix Hernandez
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.13 18   8 35 34 227 206   79 17   54 219
Mean           3.97 13 10 32 31 202 204   89 21   55 176
Pessimistic (15%)  4.94   9 11 27 26 162 180   89 22   56 129

Top Near-Age Comps:  Daffy Dean, Don Drysdale

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 10, 2007 at 06:05 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: October 10, 2007 at 08:20 PM (#2571138)
I'm really pulling for Adam Jones to break out and be their starting RF. That guy can flat out play, and on a team like the Mariners should be starting without any doubt. Guillen is garbage.

I'm also hoping for a big year from Matt Tuiasosopo. I would hope the reasons are obvious.
   2. galaxieboi Posted: October 10, 2007 at 09:18 PM (#2571219)
Adam should be playing left field. Ibanez has ZERO business playing the field and Guillen can at least play his position.

Thanks for all the hardwork, Dan. My feeling with Felix is that as long as he continues upon a positive path and doesn't hurt himself I'm happy. If it takes him 2 or 3 more years to get REALLY good, that's fine. I can wait.
   3. Honkie Kong Posted: October 10, 2007 at 09:21 PM (#2571227)
Thre just isn't much offense there. I can't believe bavasi didn't trade Sexson when he had the chance, and turn 1B over to Vidro/Ibanez
   4. NBarnes Posted: October 10, 2007 at 11:33 PM (#2571336)
It's very close to criminal negligence for Bavasi to not have let the Tigers take Sexson on waivers. Did he want to pay Sexson $14 for the privilege of seeing how Sexson follows up on 2007? *gag*
   5. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: October 11, 2007 at 01:20 AM (#2571388)
I still can't believe the waiver pull-back. Then again I still can't believe the Soriano trade.
   6. Nasty Nate Posted: October 11, 2007 at 03:29 AM (#2571455)
I dont watch the Mariners much, how does Ichiro get so few doubles year in and year out?
   7. Tiboreau Posted: October 11, 2007 at 09:04 AM (#2571531)
The King Felix projection is pretty disappointing, so I hope ZiPS is wrong. For most teams, that'd be a pretty positive projection for a very young starter, but I think a lot of people, myself included, kinda hoped he'd be fighting for Cy Youngs by now, not suffering occasional arm tweaks and allowing a confusing number of hits.

It isn't confusing at all considering how bad the defense has been. Also, both the team and Felix are fascinated with the idea of establishing the fastball, yet his fastball has been one of his more inconsistent pitches throughout his professional career. Check his performance over the course of '06-'07--several times he's found himself in a hole after the 1st inning because he tried to "establish his fastball."

Guillen is garbage.

Well, I wouldn't go that far. He put up a 118 OPS+ last year, good for 3rd best on the team. His defense is below average, but not as bad as IbaƱez. It appears that Dan's ZiPS includes his injury-riddled '06. From '03 to '05 he put an OPS+ of 141, 119, and 118. I think he's got a pretty good chance to do better than ZiPS projects. The question, though, is whether he stays with the M's. Guillen's contract includes a mutual option for the '08 season. Before the big losing streak the two sides where discussing a contract extension. I doubt Guillen's going to return without the security of a multi-year deal, and that free fall in late-Aug.\early-Sept. didn't help either. I'm not going to sweat it if he decides to look elsewhere; his personality will always make him a player to be careful of and his worry to the press about "upsetting team chemistry" with the introduction of the youngsters wasn't something I appreciated. But his performance this year wasn't garbage and he should do alright for whatever team he plays for next year. He absolutely crushed lefties in '07.

Thre just isn't much offense there. I can't believe bavasi didn't trade Sexson when he had the chance, and turn 1B over to Vidro/Ibanez

The should've traded Sexson after the '06 season; however, the Mariners are one of those teams that would be fooled into thinking that Sexson's 2nd half in '06 was a sign of things to come, while completely ignoring his 1st half. One of their biggest weaknesses is their inability to understand the Sample Size Syndrome. It's why they were willing to give Jeremy Reed the center field position in '05 when he could've used a little more seasoning, and why they went with Rene Rivera as their backup catcher for a full year in '06 when he had no business catching in the majors.

It's very close to criminal negligence for Bavasi to not have let the Tigers take Sexson on waivers. Did he want to pay Sexson $14 for the privilege of seeing how Sexson follows up on 2007? *gag*

The story goes that the M's didn't want to give up one of their players to a playoff competitor, fearing that it would come back to haunt them. I'd say let it haunt you--it would've only helped in the long run.

I dont watch the Mariners much, how does Ichiro get so few doubles year in and year out?

It's probably mostly due to the fact that so many of his hits are ground balls; even Ichiro's speed can only do so much in that regard.
   8. Rants Mulliniks Posted: October 11, 2007 at 11:50 AM (#2571548)
I dont watch the Mariners much, how does Ichiro get so few doubles year in and year out?

Yeah, that would be the career 2.29 G/F ratio. Rickey Henderson was another one who collected an inordinately low number of doubles, considering his speed and power. He had 510 career, but only hit 30 in a season 5 times, never more than 33. I don't know anywhere I can find his ground/fly numbers, but for him I always figured it was because he held up at first so he could steal second ;-).
   9. AROM Posted: October 11, 2007 at 01:06 PM (#2571563)
but for him I always figured it was because he held up at first so he could steal second ;-).


I think you're right. Henderson liked to collect "delayed doubles".
   10. Nasty Nate Posted: October 11, 2007 at 10:01 PM (#2572156)
thanks guys.

amazing comparing him (even adding his triples to his doubles count) to a guy like Boggs, who also banged out 200 hits a lot but had tons more doubles with a fraction of the speed.
   11. xeifrank Posted: October 12, 2007 at 08:27 PM (#2573181)
Glad to see that 2008 ZIPS are coming out. Question. Is there a page on this site that has links to all the teams that have their 2008 ZIPS out? Otherwise it takes alot of searching to find the ZIPS projections of the team(s) you are interested in. This is especially the case once the ZIPS are out on many teams. Thanks!
vr, Xeifrank
   12. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 12, 2007 at 08:51 PM (#2573213)
Rickey was slow out of the box, so he didn't get many leg doubles, and it seemed to even have cut down on making it on regular doubles.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 12, 2007 at 10:08 PM (#2573251)
Frank, I'll make sure that the next, and future, installments contain a bank of links to the previous entries. Until, of course, I post the spreadsheet/DMB disk.
   14. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: October 12, 2007 at 10:08 PM (#2573252)
Is there a page on this site that has links to all the teams that have their 2008 ZIPS out?

From the main page, you can choose "Transaction Oracle" from the "Other Blogs" scroll-down menu. All of the new ZIPS are linked there. Also, when you're in one of these threads, the Hot Topics section on the right-hand side switches to only "Transaction Oracle" articles, which will give you the most recent if not all of the 2008 ZIPS.
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 13, 2007 at 09:02 PM (#2574706)
It's very close to criminal negligence for Bavasi to not have let the Tigers take Sexson on waivers.

Oh, it's not close at all. I'd fire my GM for that. Another team wanted to effectively GIVE you $16-17 Mil. over 1+ years. Plus, your team gets immediately better with Jones in LF and some combination of Ibanez/Vidro/Broussard at 1B.

Inconceivable! And that does mean what I think it means.

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