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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, January 27, 2008

2008 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

As obvious as one of the main storylines of 2007 was, the pitching being top-notch and the offense being, well, otherwise,

the park made these actually more extreme, masking to some degree just how good the pitching was and just how bad the hitting

was.  After all, the surges of the Rockies and Phillies, bringing Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday to the front of the pack,

might have saved us from Eric Byrnes of the 104 OPS+ in left being taken seriously as an MVP candidate (as he was at times in

the middle of the season).

The offense should be better but the pitching shouldn’t drop off too much, which makes the Diamondbacks yet another contender

in a crowded NL field.  What makes the Diamondbacks especially dangerous is those little twos in the age column - the major

league squad is chock-full of players that are at ages they can improve.  Counting on an individual young player to improve

is generally not as good a bet as most people think.  However, when massed as they are in Arizona, they act almost as an

index stock - it doesn’t really matter if it’s Mark Reynolds or Conor Jackson or Chris Young or Stephen Drew or Justin Upton

make a huge step forward so long as some of them do, which the odds do favor.  I don’t know if it will be Conor

Jackson hitting 25 homers or Chris Young rebounding from a weak rookie season or Justin Upton making huge adjustments

carefully, but I know that there are going to be some player on this team that are going to move over a bunch of those dashed

lines below.

This completes the team-by-team ZiPS projections.  Now I can start finalizing rosters and players.  By popular interest, I’m

going to release the DMB disk and spreadsheet as often as possible, even when not complete.  The first build will include all

40-man rosters, non-roster invitees, and verified minor league signings and should appear in the next several days (with the

rest of the players, new/requested projections and lower-level minor leagues following).  Well, most 40-man rosters as

there are a few players on 40-man rosters I can’t really do projections for, including players from Cuba and those with

little or no professional experience (and no chance at making a roster soon).

I hope you all have enjoyed the team-by-team rundown of projections.  It would be neater to simply add them all at once, but

I think the discussions that result from doing them one-by-one are quite interesting.  As usual, all suggestions for

formatting and various other things you’d like to see in future projections are much appreciated.  Also, any players that you

would like to see a projection for that I can reasonably do!


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.287 .366 .498—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.285 .373 .479—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.285 .369 .481—————————————————————
Chad Tracy*          3b 28 .291 .360 .492 120 423 62 123 30 2 17 69 42 79 2 0
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.282 .366 .471—————————————————————
Conor Jackson         1b 26 .290 .372 .457 143 462 68 134 33 1 14 68 57 64 2 1
Orlando Hudson#      2b 30 .295 .368 .452 141 516 75 152 31 7 12 71 59 78 7 2
Tony Clark#          1b 36 .259 .326 .517 109 232 29 60 10 1 16 46 23 63 0 0
Mark Reynolds         3b 24 .274 .339 .481 143 486 71 133 29 3 22 82 45 158 2 2
Javier Brito         1b 25 .287 .358 .435 140 474 55 136 32 1 12 65 48 101 1 1
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.279 .357 .443—————————————————————
Eric Byrnes         lf 32 .278 .338 .455 134 508 77 141 29 5 17 74 39 80 28 4
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.284 .358 .432—————————————————————
Jamie D’Antona       3b 26 .288 .342 .447 130 483 56 139 34 2 13 68 38 74 1 1
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.282 .349 .425—————————————————————
AVERAGE C———————- c——.267 .352 .421—————————————————————
Jeff Salazar*        cf 27 .265 .345 .425 123 445 71 118 28 5 11 58 51 84 12 5
Jeff Cirillo         3b 38 .285 .346 .411 85 207 28 59 15 1 3 24 19 22 2 1
Robby Hammock         c   31 .276 .336 .414 75 239 23 66 13 1 6 32 19 34 2 2
Chris Young         cf 24 .245 .309 .467 151 567 80 139 33 3 29 96 48 124 23 6
Cyle Hankerd         cf 23 .280 .335 .402 128 478 46 134 31 0 9 58 26 99 1 3
Miguel Montero*      c   24 .249 .322 .417 120 362 34 90 16 0 15 53 36 58 0 1
Stephen Drew*        ss 25 .260 .323 .408 156 578 64 150 30 7 14 73 54 104 6 1
Chris Snyder         c   27 .244 .328 .403 108 320 34 78 18 0 11 44 37 72 0 1
Alex Romero#        rf 24 .279 .329 .398 135 513 63 143 38 4 5 55 36 51 14 9
Chris Burke         2b 28 .254 .328 .379 129 398 64 101 24 1 8 45 35 66 16 5
Justin Upton         cf 20 .248 .313 .404 154 572 64 142 33 4 16 74 48 138 19 12
Don Kelly*          ss 28 .261 .330 .351 111 356 46 93 20 3 2 34 34 44 11 7
Augie Ojeda#        ss 33 .249 .326 .324 107 281 38 70 13 1 2 25 29 30 3 0
Tim Raines Jr.#      lf 28 .258 .300 .375 122 392 46 101 18 2 8 39 21 91 20 8
Dave Krynzel*        cf 26 .220 .281 .356 104 337 44 74 16 3 8 39 26 91 12 6
Wilkin Castillo#      c   24 .250 .279 .354 108 384 35 96 26 1 4 39 13 60 13 10
Emilio Bonifacio#      2b 23 .245 .282 .312 142 564 72 138 26 3 2 46 27 117 36 15

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Tracy*            Av   Av   Av   Av
Jackson           Av            
Hudson#              Av          
Clark#            Av            
Reynolds             Fr Av        
Brito             Fr           Fr
Byrnes                     Vg Fr Vg
D’Antona       Fr   Av   Av        
Salazar*                  Vg Av Vg
Cirillo           Vg Fr Vg Pr      
Hammock         Av   Av   Fr   Fr   Fr
Young                       Av  
Hankerd                   Pr    
Montero*        Fr                
Drew*                  Fr      
Snyder         Av                
Romero#                    Av Fr Av
Burke               Av   Fr Fr Pr Fr
Upton                     Av Av Av
Kelly*            Av Fr Av Fr      
Ojeda#              Vg Vg Vg      
Raines#                    Vg Fr Vg
Krynzel*                  Vg Av Vg
Castillo#      Fr     Fr Fr Fr     Av
Bonifacio#            Av   Fr      

Player Spotlight - Stephen Drew
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .283 .354 .462 162 600 79 170 35 9 18 88 66 97 12 1 105 -1  
Mean         .260 .323 .408 156 578 64 150 30 7 14 73 54 104 6 1   85 -5
Pessimistic (15%) .232 .287 .335 144 534 40 124 23 4 8 53 41 113 3 2   56 -9

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Chris Speier, Andujar Cedeno

Player Spotlight - Chris Young
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .270 .343 .528 161 608 101 164 39 5 36 117 62 121 34 5 117   4
Mean         .245 .309 .467 151 567 80 139 33 3 29 96 48 124 23 6   94   1
Pessimistic (15%) .216 .272 .394 142 533 54 115 27 1 22 75 37 139 15 7   67 -3  

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Andruw Jones, Dale Murphy

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Brandon Webb         29   3.01 18   7 31 31   224.0 203   75 12   53 180
Doug Slaten*          28   3.63   4   2 64   0   57.0   54   23   4   25   49
Juan Cruz           29   3.67   5   3 42   8   81.0   67   33   7   42   94
Tony Pena           26   3.69   7   4 74   0   83.0   79   34   8   26   59
Brandon Lyon         28   3.82   4   3 65   0   66.0   69   28   5   19   39
Chad Qualls           29   3.86   6   5 79   0   84.0   82   36 10   26   67
Bob Wickman           39   3.88   3   3 54   0   51.0   51   22   5   17   37
Danny Haren           27   3.92 14 11 33 33   216.0 214   94 27   46 177
Randy Johnson*        44   3.99   9   8 22 22   142.0 129   63 20   34 154
Max Scherzer         23   4.35   5   6 18 18   89.0   82   43   8   57   76
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.44———————————————————————-
Micah Owings         25   4.47   8   9 29 28   163.0 169   81 19   56 108
Brandon Medders       28   4.56   5   6 67   0   77.0   78   39 10   40   59
Doug Davis*          32   4.66 10 12 32 32   193.0 202 100 21   87 149
Jailen Peguero         27   4.78   4   4 64   0   79.0   78   42   9   45   60
Connor Robertson       26   4.79   3   4 45   0   62.0   65   33   7   29   49
Edgar Gonzalez         25   4.81   7   8 32 20   146.0 157   78 26   33 105
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.87———————————————————————-
Dustin Nippert         27   5.14   5   7 32 16   112.0 117   64 15   55   84
Brooks Brown         22   5.16   4   7 22 17   96.0 100   55 10   56   58
Leonel Rosales         27   5.22   4   5 46   0   50.0   53   29   8   22   40
Emiliano Fruto         24   5.34   4   7 36 10   91.0   90   54 10   68   64
Bill Murphy*          27   5.37   4   6 49 14   114.0 120   68 16   67   89
Yusmeiro Petit         23   5.49   6 11 32 24   141.0 159   86 26   52   86
Livan Hernandez       33   5.55   7 14 30 30   193.0 233 119 31   75 103
Billy Buckner         24   5.74   6 13 33 25   152.0 173   97 26   72   98
Esmerling Vasquez       24   5.85   5   9 30 24   120.0 141   78 19   71   88
Juan Gutierrez         24   5.94   5 11 29 26   153.0 173 101 27   64   89
Daniel Stange         22   6.00   3   7 45   0   48.0   52   32   8   30   40
Hector Ambriz         24   6.10   6 13 29 27   143.0 162   97 24   84   86
Matt Torra           24   6.15   4   9 19 19   101.0 121   69 17   45   56
Matt Green           26   6.66   4 12 25 25   127.0 157   94 28   61   68

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Doug Davis
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.78 13 10 34 34 212 203   89 17   80 171   124
Mean           4.66 10 12 32 32 193 202 100 21   87 149   101
Pessimistic (15%)  5.84   6 12 26 26 151 178   98 22   79 106   80

Top Near-Age Comps:  Jim Bibby, Pat Rapp

Player Spotlight - Brandon Webb
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  2.50 20   5 32 32 234 196   65 10   51 204   188
Mean           3.01 18   7 31 31 224 203   75 12   53 180   156
Pessimistic (15%)  4.11 11 10 26 26 175 179   80 15   56 131   114

Top Near-Age Comps:  Frank Sullivan, Roger Clemens

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:18 PM | 105 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 
   1. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:26 PM (#2677077)
Pitchers gonna rock.
Hitters gonna suck.
   2. Robert S. Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:30 PM (#2677079)
ZiPS has finally warmed up to Webb. One of these years he's going to have that optimistic season, too. He's still learning how to pitch.
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:30 PM (#2677081)
So ZIPS thinks 6 starters will be better than league average starter (webb, haren, rj, owings, davis, edgon) and 6 relievers will be better than league average reliever (slaten, cruz, pena, lyon, qualls, scherzer).

ZIPS also thinks the only hitter worth penciling in the lineup is also the hitter recovering from a microfracture surgery on his right knee and taking blood-thinning medication to dissolve clots in his leg. Not good, not good.

The solution is simple: Get Manny.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:31 PM (#2677083)
ZiPS has finally warmed up to Webb.


I believe the guys at BPro still expect him to implode one of these days... like they have since 2004.
   5. Robert S. Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:35 PM (#2677087)
You know, if I'm Justin Upton, I'd just go ahead and have an MVP-type season this year. It would make everything so much easier.
   6. Wes Parkers Mood (Mike Green) Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:48 PM (#2677094)
Those Chris Young the hitter comps are pretty good (!), and had nice age 23 seasons. Andruw had found some semblance of strike zone control by age 22. Jesse Barfield was a similar hitter at this stage, and also began to turn it on by age 23.

I don't quite agree with the defence/pitching attributions. Hudson/Drew/Young as Av/Fr/Av would lead to the inference that this is a below-average team defence (especially with Tracy and the catchers being no better than average). Globally, most markers indicate that the team defence is above average.
   7. Ennder Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:51 PM (#2677098)
I believe the guys at BPro still expect him to implode one of these days... like they have since 2004.


Last year PECOTA had him down for a 3.49 ERA in their initial projections. He ended up with a 3.01. Hardly an implosion projection.
   8. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:54 PM (#2677099)
John Dewan gave the 2007 Dbacks +54 as a team, but all of that came from EByrnes (+28), Hudson (+20) and Quentin (+6). The rest of the defense averaged to about zero.

I remain optimistic that the defense will improve in 2008. I don't foresee Byrnes or Hudson simply collapsing defensively; Drew, Young and Reynolds all showed improvement (at least to the naked eye) as the season progressed, and Upton's sheer talent and athleticism should make him above average in right field. I can boldly predict that the Dbacks will have the fastest trio of outfielders in all of baseball next year. You guys should see Justin Upton fly in the outfield, it's unreal.
   9. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:55 PM (#2677100)
Hardly an implosion projection.

I was being facetious. Pecota predicted his death for years before coming to its senses last year.
   10. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:57 PM (#2677101)
Now is the time for those who believe that run differential is useless to predict whether or not this team will outperform its pythagorean projection. They had the magic touch last year, and they're bringing back essentially the same team.
   11. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:00 PM (#2677102)
Hey Dan, how about a Jarrod Parker projection? :)

And while ZIPS is cranking out the Cy Young award seasons in store for Parker, could you give us the projections for a couple of recent signees: Jesus Merchan and Trent Oeltjen? Thanks.
   12. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:02 PM (#2677103)
Now is the time for those who believe that run differential is useless to predict whether or not this team will outperform its pythagorean projection.

How about you tell us your projected run differential for the 2008 Dbacks?
   13. Kyle S Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:09 PM (#2677105)
Dan, thanks for all the hard work. There's nothing like seeing a new team's thread and getting to delve into the projections and commments - makes a dreary workday just a little better.

If you're taking requests, I'd love to see a Kazumi Saitoh projection into a neutral park in both the AL and NL (or just one or the other - I don't mind!).
   14. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:11 PM (#2677107)
How about you tell us your projected run differential for the 2008 Dbacks?

Although I'm not sure what that has to do with whether or not they outdo their run differential, it is a good question. I guess we'd need a depth chart and some estimates of playing time, along with the ZiPS/Marcel/Pecota projections.
   15. Robert S. Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:16 PM (#2677109)
Byrnes: I wouldn't rule out a collapse. He'll be 32 and is completely reliant on his athleticism. If he loses a step, it's going to be a big problem.

Hudson: I think he can improve/hold steady with better positioning - I wish the team would shift him further to his right, particularly with a RHB at the plate. The FO should make some intern watch Counsell's '05 season for some pointers about this.

Drew: His range isn't going to improve, but he'll be much better if he can quit booting so many routine plays. If he doesn't start hitting, though, the team needs to go in a new direction sooner rather than later.

Young: He noticeably improved as the season progressed.

I really think the defense is going to improve, even with declines from Hudson and Byrnes. Reynolds and Upton were learning new positions in the majors and Young wasn't patrolling a tiny CF, either.
   16. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:40 PM (#2677115)
That's an ugly projection for Livan. Go get him Omar!
   17. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:49 PM (#2677118)
In 2007, the Dbacks scored 712 runs and allowed 732 runs.

SG ran a couple of sets of Diamond Mind simulations (100 seasons worth) for the 2008 season; for one of them, he used his CAIRO projections, and for the other, he used AROM's CHONE projections.

With the CAIRO projections, the Dbacks averaged 725 runs scored and 695 runs allowed (84.8 wins, 77.2 losses).

With the CHONE projections, the Dbacks averaged 831 runs scored and 704 runs allowed (93.5 wins, 68.5 losses).

As discussed here recently when I linked Nick Piecoro's blog entry, the two projection systems seem to like the pitching equally well, and just eye-balling Dan's projections above, the three systems pretty much agree that the Dbacks will have excellent pitching in 2008. If the Dbacks pitchers allow ~700 runs next year, then they may very well allow the fewest runs in the NL (as both sets of simulations predict), which will give the Dbacks by far the best team ERA+ in the NL... an impressive feat considering the ballpark.

The other question, however, is how good the offense is going to be. If they show only a modest improvement on the 2007 season, and score 725 runs (as the CAIRO simulations see them doing), then the Dbacks will probably miss the playoffs, as I don't see them outperforming their pythag again by 4-5 games and reaching the 89-90 wins needed to win the NL West.

If they score 831 runs however (as the CHONE simulations see them), and have a pythag record of 93.5 wins, then I have a really hard time seeing them outperform that pythag at all, and in fact they're quite likely to under-perform it by a game or three... but that might still mean they'll be in the fight for first place in the NL west until the last day of the season.

If you take the average b/w the CAIRO and CHONE projections, and give the Dbacks a run differential of 778 runs scored and 700 runs allowed, which projects to 89.2 wins/72.8 losses -- or basically their actual 2007 record of 90-72. So really, the money is on them having a much better run differential in 2008 than in 2007, yet finishing with the same record as in 2007--or even under-performing their pythag by a game or three and finishing with 87-88 wins.
   18. shoewizard Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:07 PM (#2677121)
General Comments:

1.) Chad Tracy had a set back after his micro fracture surgery, developing a blood clot in his leg. He is on blood thinners, and although he has started hitting, it looks like there is little chance he will be ready to go on opening day. He hasn't started running yet. In my own projections, I rather subjectively dialed him back a bit, figuring his effectiveness is going to be impacted.

2.) Doug Slaten also had micro fracture surgery on his knee, and he is highly questionable to start the season, and you never know how that is going to affect his performance.

Obviously ZIPS is probably not able to account for these two particular situations, but the health status of these two players is notable considering where they rank on these projections in relation to the dotted lines

3.) For an established starter that has been around a while and is not coming off an injury, that sure is a pretty big spread between the optimistic and pessimistic for Doug Davis. I personally think the odds would lean a lot more towards the pessimistic than the optimistic for him. I think younger NL West hitters will do a better job this time around of laying off his junk and waiting for him to come inside the strike zone.

4.) Poor projections for the hitters was pretty much expected, although it's interesting to compare between ZIPS, Chone, and Bill James. ZIPS is overall, more pessimistic (realistic?) when it comes to the D Backs Bats. I agree with Dan's assessment. One of these guys is likley to break out, but who the heck knows which one.

Josh Byrnes has built this team on pitching and defense, and a wing and a prayer that at least one of the hitters will develop into a genuine star that he can build the lineup around. In the meantime, he is counting on balanced production and hopefully some continued, incremental improvements for most of the hitters.
   19. shoewizard Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:25 PM (#2677132)
OPS 2007 vs. ZIPS 2008 Projection for the projected starting lineup

Big Drop:
Snyder: 777 vs. 731

Big Increases:
Drew: 683 Vs. 731
Upton: 647 vs. 717

All the rest within a range of 3-24 OPS points of last season

Jackson: 835 vs. 829
Hudson: 817 vs. 820
Reynolds: 844 Vs. 820
Byrnes: 813 vs. 793
Young: 762 vs. 776

With Chris Burke replacing Tony Clark, the bench offense gets weaker than last year. Tracy of course is the wild care there.
Also of note is Javier Brito's projection. Too bad he's not left handed. :(

But overall, it looks like ZIPS is actually forecasting the D Backs offense to be slightly worse in 2008. God...I hope not, I don't think I could sit through that again.
   20. joker24 Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:34 PM (#2677139)
Obviously it's semantical as he's 23 and it's guesswork on rooks anyway, but is Scherzer's the highest projected ERA+ of any rookie starter? Minor league home run rate that important?
   21. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:37 PM (#2677142)
For what it's worth... a look at how ZIPS and CHONE compare when it comes to AZ's hitters:

AVE, OBP, SLG, OPS comp

Also, a simplified comparison, looking at OPS alone:

OPS alone comp
   22. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#2677147)
   23. shoewizard Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#2677148)
As you can see by my decluttered comparison, showing the guys slated to get the lions share of the PT, ZIPS is considerably more pessimistic than CHONE.
   24. shoewizard Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:50 PM (#2677153)
Hey Dan, thanks again for all your work. Just one minor request. Since the D Backs have toyed with the idea of letting Owings play a little first base this year, and he is likely to PH and maybe even DH in some interleague games, would it be possible to give us a projection for him? Do you have enough data? It would be kind of interesting.
   25. Masticore317 Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:22 PM (#2677163)
I'd also be interested in seeing an Owings projection.
   26. Red Robot Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:45 PM (#2677172)
I hope you all have enjoyed the team-by-team rundown of projections. It would be neater to simply add them all at once, but I think the discussions that result from doing them one-by-one are quite interesting.


Three cheers for Dan!
   27. qudjy1 Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:50 PM (#2677174)
Thanks Dan - great stuff.

Poor Snyder - no love again.
   28. Honkie Kong Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:58 PM (#2677177)
I am curious how a seven DMB series between the Braves and DBacks goes. One team has good hitting and average pitching. And DBacks the mirror image.
Both teams have average defence, so i think it might tilt towards the Braves, but it would be interesting. Does pitching win the postseason?
   29. Mike Webber Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:09 AM (#2677181)
Dan,
Does Micha Owings get a boost in his W/L record since he is such a good hitter?
What are his hitting ZIPs?
   30. qudjy1 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:21 AM (#2677190)
Am i the only one who doenst think ATL will be very good next year? Offense should be good, but i was not all that impressed with them last year, and they lost Jones, renteria. and havent picked up much from what i can tell. Larry, Mccann, Diaz, Tex, Johnson, etc - its a good linup - but basically the same one that didnt make up any ground vs teh NL east last year.
   31. PS is probably a sitcom character Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:31 AM (#2677198)
Well, if you think Atlanta will do as good as last year, that's a good thing. They were a pretty damned good team... no one noticed the hitting was so good, because of the back end of the rotation. They're replacing Andruw who was essentially replacement level with replacement level, and LaRoche-Renteria with Teixeira-Escobar.

BPro's adjusted ratings had the Braves robbed by about 4-5 wins, while the rest of the east stole a game or two. Then, there's the kings of stealing wins, who'll actually earn those 90 wins this year. It'll be a good race.
   32. PS is probably a sitcom character Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:39 AM (#2677204)
Let me rephrase that.. Thorman-Renteria is comparable to Teixeira-Escobar.
   33. qudjy1 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:56 AM (#2677216)
Fair enough. I didnt mean to say Atl will be bad by anymeans. They did have Tex since the deadline, so, the full year of replacing of Thorman isnt really accurate, but point taken. Of the teams i saw play vs AZ last year, ATL didnt do much to impress - but small sample, etc...
   34. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#2677220)
I think the question in comparing the Braves and D backs is which is more likely to improve, the D Backs hitting or the Braves pitching.

Also, D Backs defense was better than average last year, and is only going to get better.
   35. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:27 AM (#2677233)
I was hoping you guys wouldn't bring up Owings. Normally, I don't project pitcher hitting, I simply use career numbers on the DMB disk once they hit 100 career MLB at-bats, but Owings just being ridiculous (and being a monster hitter in college) forced me to do an actual ZiPS projection for him. Pitcher hitting tends to age very poorly, so I treated him like an old backup catcher and got a line of 288/300/576 for him. He had a ridiculous .415 BABIP and ZiPS tries to bring him back to earth, but I'm just not content with that projection, though I did put it into DMB. Normally, I wouldn't have to project a hitter with 120 professional at-bats over 2 and a half years, but I'm sorta stuck.
   36. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:37 AM (#2677240)
Dan,

I've got to question the legitimacy of your projection system.

I developed my own projection system on which I've been working on for the past few minutes.

For comparison's sake, I have Upton posting a 1025 OPS, Drew at 1050 with a +35 defense, and Young hitting 54 out and drawing 125 walks.

I mean, what gives dude? It's not just the hitting, but I have Webb going 27-4 in 280 innings with a 180 ERA+ and RJ finally breaking Ryan's single-season K record (albeit by a small margin).

ZIPS sucks and CHONE swallows...
   37. qudjy1 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:41 AM (#2677245)
hehe.
   38. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:57 AM (#2677254)
I mean, what gives dude? It's not just the hitting, but I have Webb going 27-4 in 280 innings with a 180 ERA+ and RJ finally breaking Ryan's single-season K record (albeit by a small margin).

Ha! Does that mean you broke your non-disclosure agreement?
   39. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: January 28, 2008 at 02:13 AM (#2677259)
Ha! Does that mean you broke your non-disclosure agreement?

Well, I think the Lemonschmacks (name has been altered for my protection) will be happy if the above players produce at the levels my projection system says, disclosure be damned.
   40. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: January 28, 2008 at 02:15 AM (#2677260)
BTW, Dan

seriously good work, thanks.

Sincerely,

Pablo Gutierrez (name altered for my protection once again)
   41. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: January 28, 2008 at 02:24 AM (#2677269)
Two notes:

1. Is Tracy really on the bench? If so (and this is of course entirely reasonable), AZ will have its best-projected hitter (by a nontrivial margin) on the bench.

2. What happened to Byrnes' defense? When he was in OAK, we all initially thought he was a good defender because he was superfast and had tons of hustle. He _looked_ like a good defender. But the numbers had him as below average, and when we started paying attention, we noticed that in fact he took awful routes to balls. Now apparently he is Gold Glove-caliber. I certainly can see how experience would help, but this is not a position change taking time to acclimate; he's always been an outfielder.
   42. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 03:18 AM (#2677289)
My guess is all 423 of those projected Tracy at bats are against RHP. Have you ever seen his numbers vs. lefty's?
   43. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 03:21 AM (#2677291)
Oh, it's also notable that ZIPS is the highest on Tracy so far

ZIPS 852
James 832
Marcel 827
Chone 816

I originally had him at .819, but have since revised him down to .772 He is going to come back late, and probably struggle with his timing for a while. He could be a good pickup in roto leagues in the second half though.
   44. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 03:37 AM (#2677308)
Just for the record, Pablo Gutierrez is not related to Juan Gutierrez.
   45. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 03:38 AM (#2677309)
I took the 4 projections systems and did a simple composite avg for OPS and ERA for a projected 25 man roster.

Reynolds comes out on top for hitters, because of the whacky James projection, (905 OPS). James was also the outlier for Upton, with an 849, and overall, had the highest projection for 7 of the 13 hitters. He also had the highest projection for 5 of the 12 pitchers listed below......so the Bill James system LOVES the D Backs.

Reynolds 839
Jackson 837
Tracy 832
Young 801
Hudson 795
Byrnes 785
Upton 772
Salazar 761
Montero 756
Snyder 754
Drew 753
Burke 718
Ojeda 672

One thing that stands out is that if Tracy really does struggle with that knee very badly, this team is really going to miss Tony Clark off the bench.

Webb 3.32
Haren 3.77
Pena 3.82
Cruz 3.83
Slaten 3.82
Qualls 3.85
Lyon 3.99
Johnson 4.09
Owings 4.39
Davis 4.53
Gonzalez 4.63
Nippert 4.79

BTW, if Dan had shown his RC/27 I'd have used that instead of OPS. The other 3 systems have RC/27 available on Fangraphs site. I could have figured it...but I'm lazy. I'll wait till ZIPS hits Frangraphs or Dan releases his spread sheet and do that then.
   46. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 03:38 AM (#2677310)
I treated him like an old backup catcher and got a line of 288/300/576 for him

I want you to treat him like young Albert Belle, dammit.
   47. Red Robot Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:36 AM (#2677335)
the Bill James system LOVES the D Backs.


The Bill James system is laughably in love with most young players.
   48. Jeff K. Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:37 AM (#2677336)
We demand Excel!
Or Dan can go to hell!

We demand Excel!
Or Dan can go to hell!
   49. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 28, 2008 at 05:03 AM (#2677347)
Is there any reason to take the Bill James projections seriously? All the projections I've seen look like they've been pulled from fanboys' hats.
   50. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 28, 2008 at 05:04 AM (#2677348)
I should add, I'm hoping they're right on the D-Backs. It looks like I'll be moving down to Tucson and I think I'll adopt them as my NL team.
   51. Red Robot Posted: January 28, 2008 at 05:19 AM (#2677355)
Is there any reason to take the Bill James projections seriously? All the projections I've seen look like they've been pulled from fanboys' hats.


None that I can see. To be clear, the "Bill James" projections are associated with the man in name only; whatever projections he currently produces are the property of the Red Sox.
   52. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 05:34 AM (#2677368)
OK....removing James from the averages, and just going with ZIPS, Chone and Marcel

Tracy 832
Jackson 829
Reynolds 817
Hudson 798
Young 792
Byrnes 789
Salazar 759
Drew 753
Montero 749
Snyder 748
Upton 746
Burke 716
Ojeda 686

Webb 3.30
Haren 3.78
Qualls 3.85
Cruz 3.85
Pena 3.92
Lyon 3.94
Slaten 3.94
Johnson 4.09
Owings 4.42
Davis 4.58
Gonzalez 4.58
Nippert 4.95
   53. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 05:57 AM (#2677379)
Is there any reason to take the Bill James projections seriously?

They're the only ones that really like the Dbacks hitters? That's a good enough reason for me.
   54. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 06:07 AM (#2677386)
You know what this means, don't you? Since everyone is in agreement the pitching will be excellent again and the hitting will pretty much suck again....the hitters are all going to go off and blow away the projections, while the pitching will bitterly disappoint.
   55. Robert S. Posted: January 28, 2008 at 06:08 AM (#2677387)
Does Webb have the best pessimistic prediction for a starter?
   56. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 06:15 AM (#2677395)
Robert, Jake Peavy's is better. Probably Santana's too, but Dan didn't post it.
   57. dr. bleachers Posted: January 28, 2008 at 06:15 AM (#2677397)
Peavy's got him by half a run, but it's the same ERA+ if I did it right.
   58. Robert S. Posted: January 28, 2008 at 06:22 AM (#2677403)
Yeah, and Santana's mean is higher than Webb's.
   59. Runscreated Posted: January 28, 2008 at 08:35 AM (#2677442)
Shoewizard,

Thanks for the fansgraph site. I did not see Runs Created listed as a stat though, as you can tell I am a fan of that stat.
Where does it show up?

Cheers
   60. xeifrank Posted: January 28, 2008 at 08:45 AM (#2677444)
First off, a special thanks to Dan for working so hard pumping out the 2008 ZIPS Projections.

On a side note, I completed a similarity score matrix of all of the outfielders of age 25 and younger. The similarity scores are based off of HR rate, BB rate and SO rate. It does not take into consideration age, defense, or which outfield position a players plays, just the three important offensive rate stats. This gives you an idea of which young outfielders are the most similar offensively at this point in time. For the Arizona outfielders here are there three most similar young outfielders. All stats were park adjusted to a neutral playing field, and of course used Dan's 2008 ZIPS Projections.

OF - Chris Young
1) Adam Jones (SEA)
2) Hunter Pence (HOU)
3) Dorn (CIN)

OF - Cyle Hankerd
1) Gomez (NYM)
2) Pride (TB)
3) McCutchen (PIT)

OF - Justin Upton
1) Felix Pie (CHC)
2) Choo (CLE)
3) Huffman (SD)

For a look at the complete spreadsheet email me.

vr, Xeifrank
Author: Dodger Sims Blog
   61. DCW3 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 08:47 AM (#2677445)
Well, I think the Lemonschmacks (name has been altered for my protection) will be happy if the above players produce at the levels my projection system says, disclosure be damned.

Of course, there's always the possibility that the, er, Lemonschmacks might look at your projections and say, "Geez, if we've already got such an awesome roster, what are we doing wasting our money on all these scouts and analysts? You're gone, Gomez!"
   62. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 09:17 AM (#2677451)
Shoewizard,

Thanks for the fansgraph site. I did not see Runs Created listed as a stat though, as you can tell I am a fan of that stat.
Where does it show up?

Cheers


Here is Conor Jackson's page. Just scroll down to the second set of numbers and look to the right and you will see RC and RC/27 both for past seasons and projected for 2008 by the various systems.
   63. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 03:16 PM (#2677505)
OF - Cyle Hankerd
1) Gomez (NYM)
2) Pride (TB)
3) McCutchen (PIT)

That's a strange list. Hankerd really doesn't have the speed of the other guys.
   64. Spahn Insane Posted: January 28, 2008 at 03:46 PM (#2677531)
If the Dbacks pitchers allow ~700 runs next year, then they may very well allow the fewest runs in the NL (as both sets of simulations predict), which will give the Dbacks by far the best team ERA+ in the NL... an impressive feat considering the ballpark.

ERA+ takes park factors into account, no? (Not to suggest that the DBacks don't have a fine pitching staff.)

I'm surprised at how weak those projections for the DBack offense look. And yes, I'm well aware their offense was terrible last year.
   65. Spahn Insane Posted: January 28, 2008 at 03:47 PM (#2677532)
And yes, allowing the fewest runs in the league (and thus having probably the lowest absolute ERA in the league) *would* certainly be impressive in light of the park.
   66. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:06 PM (#2677537)
Compiled by shoewizard, the OPS projections for Dbacks hitters by four different systems

LINK

The thing about the 2008 Dbacks lineup is that with a few breaks and expected improvements, every starter could end up with OPS of > .800 next year, except for catcher, and even then, I won't be shocked if Snyder/Montero combine for OPS of .775 or so. So while there may not be MVP-like performances, that lineup hopefully won't have too many black holes either. And if two or three guys post OPS of > .850, then that team will score some runs.
   67. Spahn Insane Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:12 PM (#2677543)
I think it's because levski's been pimping all the D'backs prospects so much,retro, you might have missed how PCL-inflated their MLE's were.

No, not really. I just figured their youth would portend a pretty significant improvement in their offense in total, which it apparently doesn't. Not one DBack projecting to outhit an average 1B or corner OF (and only one to outhit an average 3B)? Ouch.
   68. Spahn Insane Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:15 PM (#2677551)
However, the point that a lot of the lineup could be averagish is well taken--even if none of the lineup's very good, they shouldn't be quite as bad as last year. Still--that's putting an awful lot of stock in the (admittedly very good) pitching staff.
   69. CraigK Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:20 PM (#2677557)
I want to see Micah Owings's numbers if the Diamondbacks go through with their plan to make him a part-time first-baseman with 150-200 ABs.

Can ZiPS calculate that?
   70. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#2677559)
kevin, I find your theory intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
   71. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:25 PM (#2677564)
I just figured their youth would portend a pretty significant improvement in their offense in total, which it apparently doesn't.

Well, their youth is countered by the horrendous performances that basically everyone (not named Byrnes or Hudson) had last year; much as you like youth, you can't throw out their 2007 numbers. I believe the 2007 are uniformly lower than the true talent, for more or less everyone who'll be a starter on the 2008 Dbacks (aside from Byrnes and Hudson, again), but ZiPS can't do that.

Owings won't get 150-200 at bats.
   72. Spahn Insane Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:30 PM (#2677569)
Owings won't get 150-200 at bats.

Maybe he should. If not more.
   73. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:46 PM (#2677579)
And yes, I'm well aware their offense was terrible last year.



I think it's because levski's been pimping all the D'backs prospects so much,retro, you might have missed how PCL-inflated their MLE's were.


I know you are joking Kevin, partly.....but are you trying to say that Pecota, Zips, Chone, et al have no idea about PCL park factors and failed to adjust for those? Every single one of these projection systems over projected the D Backs offense last year, and every single one uses MLE's that take into account minor league park factors. There were other factors at work here that all combined to create a vortex of suck. Don't under estimate the damage that Kevin Seitzer did to many of these young players. He really got WAY too far inside many of these kids heads and messed up their approach, swing mechanics, you name it. Combine that with Quentin's shoulder injury, and Drew's inexplicable development of a severe uppercut, and it all just went to ####.....until the last couple months of the season.

D Backs pre all star break OPS .716
D Backs post all star break OPS .755 (Setizer was fired around the ASB)

The projection systems can't over weight second half performance......but as a fan boy, I have no problem coming to the conclusion that the second half performance is much more indicative of the true talent level of this team.

I was only half joking when I said that the hitting would be great and the pitching would suck. I truly believe the hitting will beat the projections by a hefty margin, and the pitching won't be quite that good.
   74. JPWF13 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:58 PM (#2677586)
I know you are joking Kevin, partly.....but are you trying to say that Pecota, Zips, Chone, et al have no idea about PCL park factors and failed to adjust for those? Every single one of these projection systems over projected the D Backs offense last year, and every single one uses MLE's that take into account minor league park factors.


Not enough imho, I've been doing my own minor league park and league adjustments for 3 years now- and most systems I've seen do not seem to make enough adjustments for the more extreme environments. A batter playing ion a hitter's park in a hitter's league does not seem to be "penalized" enough for that.

Also, a player in Phoenix may be playing in a 6 r/g environment (home and road), whereas someone in another league and park may be playing in a 4 r/g environment. However, performance doesn't seem to scale in a linear fashion- you might think that someone who could produce 5 r/g in the 4 r/g environment (+ 25%) would produce 7.5 r/g in the 6 run environment- I don't think he does, he'll produce more like 8-9 r/g. Perhaps standard deviations should be used rather than %s, I don't know.
   75. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 05:04 PM (#2677592)
kevin, I can't access your site. all the "kevin loves pedroia" images you've uploaded there are blocked by my company's servers...
   76. JPWF13 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 05:09 PM (#2677598)
Owings won't get 150-200 at bats.


Maybe he should. If not more.


Micah's college hitting #s look nice, of course I have no idea what they mean.

FWIW:
Micah was the best hitter on a Tulane team that went 55-10
the year before he was almost dead even with Eric Patterson as the best hitters on a 44-21 Georgia Tech team- Patterson never hit as well as Micah did a year later at Tulane.

So my guess is that Micah is probably a better hitter than Patterson- who Zips projects as a .264/.318/.406 hitter in the MLB.
   77. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 05:17 PM (#2677605)
Micah is too valuable as a great hitting starting pitcher to be used regularly as a hitter.
   78. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 06:23 PM (#2677678)
Thinking about Micah's hitting, and how that might contribute to his W/L record, I went to ESPN and looked up Run Support for NL pitchers with minimum 140 IP

Owings Ranked 20th out of 54 with 5.36 R/G support. That was the best among AZ Starters. Livan ranked 31st with 4.98, Webb 42nd with 4.38 and Davis was 47th with 4.16. It will be interesting to keep track over the next several years to see if Owings being in the lineup translates directly into above avg. R/S on a consistent basis. It will also be interesting to see if any of the projection systems care to take that into account when projecting his W/L record.
   79. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2677719)
Not enough imho, I've been doing my own minor league park and league adjustments for 3 years now- and most systems I've seen do not seem to make enough adjustments for the more extreme environments. A batter playing ion a hitter's park in a hitter's league does not seem to be "penalized" enough for that.


I can believe the adjustments might not have been enough. In general, for Jackson, Quentin, and Hairston, passing through Lancaster/El Paso/Tucson was simply one hitters paradise after another, and contributed to them being ranked higher than they should have been. With the exception of Webb, it didn't seem to help D Backs pitching prospects having to run that gauntlet either. I suspect it had less effect on Webb once he learned his sinker.

Most D Backs fans I know are extremely happy the team is in the more neutral environments of Visalia and Mobile. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2009 as this is the last year in Tucson. The Sidewinders club is moving to Reno, although the D Backs may or may not be going with them. It's assumed that because of elevation, Reno will be a hitters park also, and I think the organization would prefer a neutral environment if one is available.
   80. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: January 28, 2008 at 07:03 PM (#2677722)
Of course, there's always the possibility that the, er, Lemonschmacks might look at your projections and say, "Geez, if we've already got such an awesome roster, what are we doing wasting our money on all these scouts and analysts? You're gone, Gomez!"

You mean "You're gone Gutierrez*", of course. Again, I gotta try to conceal my identity.
   81. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: January 28, 2008 at 08:04 PM (#2677784)
Hmm...I was a pancakehead supporter, until reading that bizarre kevin comment. Now, I really need to reassess.
   82. JPWF13 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 08:08 PM (#2677788)
Again, I gotta try to conceal my identity.


Not doing a good job of it Carl.
   83. JPWF13 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 08:11 PM (#2677790)
Hmm...I was a pancakehead supporter, until reading that bizarre kevin comment. Now, I really need to reassess.


At first I thought it might be Jesus Melendez... but he doesn't strike me as one to hide behind a handle...

Then I thought it might be BL, but nah, writing style/ personality is off

Then I thought it was someone parodying/satirizing BL.

I'm leaning towards the last one.
   84. shoewizard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 09:27 PM (#2677855)
I'm in the mood for breakfast.
   85. Computers are smart Posted: January 29, 2008 at 02:36 PM (#2678306)
Dan,

My lone special request coming in at the tail end of your projections is this ...

what does 2009 Upton ZiPS look like optimistically?

TIA,
CAS
   86. shoewizard Posted: January 29, 2008 at 09:34 PM (#2678814)
In case anyone is intereted, [url=http://forum.diamondbacksbullpen.org/viewtopic.php?p=131087#131087]HERE[/ur] is something I posted comparing Giambi and Jackson. I believe the next 3 seasons for Jackson are going to look very much like Giambi's age 26-27 seasons.
   87. shoewizard Posted: January 29, 2008 at 09:34 PM (#2678815)
Damn....need EDIT function in the Oracle Dan.

HERE IS THE LINK
   88. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: February 03, 2008 at 01:51 AM (#2682479)
I will definitely take the under for Dan Haren's ERA.
   89. AJMcCringleberry Posted: February 03, 2008 at 02:48 AM (#2682509)
I want you to treat him like young Albert Belle, dammit.

Not a young Babe Ruth?
   90. BenGrieveStillBelieve Posted: February 03, 2008 at 04:55 PM (#2682697)
Check out my blog.

http://baseballmind.blogspot.com/
   91. 1k5v3L Posted: February 04, 2008 at 06:58 AM (#2683067)
93: that's nice, but what does Jose Reyes have to do with the Diamondbacks?
   92. shoewizard Posted: February 05, 2008 at 01:02 AM (#2683677)
I will definitely take the under for Dan Haren's ERA.


ZIPS is the highest of the popular projection systems, but they are all very close

ZIPS 3.92
Marcel 3.80
Pecota 3.73
James 3.72
Chone 3.62

AVG 3.76
   93. shoewizard Posted: February 13, 2008 at 10:42 PM (#2690485)
As a result of a couple of discussions regarding Mark Reynolds over the last few days, I was looking at his projected BABIP in a few places.

If I am figuring it right, ZIPS projected Reynolds to have a .363 BABIP in 2008. Here is what I see among the various projection systems


ZIPS .363
Chone .328
Pecota .313

Considering that there are only 3 players in the major leagues that produced a BABIP over .345 in 2 consecutive seasons over the last 3 years, (Miguel Cabrera, Derek Jeter, and Michael Young), it seems like ZIPS is a little too bullish on Mr. Reynolds balls in play. Interesting to note that ZIPS shows only slight improvement in his K rate, from 31% to 29.5%, but Pecota shows more improvement in the K rate, to 25.5%, which of course offsets the larger regression to his BABIP. Chone has a projected 28..7% K Rate

Dan, where does Reynolds projected BABIP stack up among all projected full time players? I have to think .363 is among the highest projected BABIP ZIPS turned out, no?
   94. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 14, 2008 at 04:18 AM (#2690682)

Dan, where does Reynolds projected BABIP stack up among all projected full time players? I have to think .363 is among the highest projected BABIP ZIPS turned out, no?


Yeah, I have a few too high BABIPs - the standard linear models for minor league translations increase K rates for whiffers too much. Up to now, I've concentrated mainly on getting the BA/OBP/SLG to work out as nicely as possible, but I'm in the process of completely re-structuring minor league translations to a more flexible model.
   95. shoewizard Posted: February 14, 2008 at 04:42 AM (#2690704)
Interesting. So am I correct in understanding that the model projects too many K's for Reynolds and the high BABIP projection functions as a "correction" to that? According to the MLE's at minorleaguesplits.com Reynolds MLE K rate for 05 and 06 were 32% and 31%, and he had a 31% K rate last year. I guess the 64$ question is just how much his K rate will improve in 2008, and if that improvement can be achieved without sacrificing power. God, I can't wait till the season starts. ;)
   96. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 14, 2008 at 04:47 AM (#2690708)
Interesting. So am I correct in understanding that the model projects too many K's for Reynolds and the high BABIP projection functions as a "correction" to that?

In essence, it's turning a few in-play outs into strikeouts. It's hard enough getting the BA/OBP/SLG right that before now, I haven't really had the time to make a new minor league translation model that also hits the shape.
   97. shoewizard Posted: February 14, 2008 at 04:49 AM (#2690712)
Ok, got it. Thanks for taking the time to explain.

I reference your work almost every day, it's outstanding.
   98. 1k5v3L Posted: March 14, 2008 at 08:20 PM (#2712973)
Dbacks claimed Josh Whitesell, 1b, off waivers from the Nationals.
To make room on the 40 man roster, Billy Murphy was DFAed.
   99. 1k5v3L Posted: March 24, 2008 at 02:16 AM (#2718140)
Billy Murphy, c0ck-eyed optimist, got claimed by the Blue Jays and thereby got involved again in the world of international intrigue.
   100. shoewizard Posted: May 01, 2008 at 05:25 AM (#2764838)
Mark Reynolds is on pace to K 236 times this year.
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