2008 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks
As obvious as one of the main storylines of 2007 was, the pitching being top-notch and the offense being, well, otherwise,
the park made these actually more extreme, masking to some degree just how good the pitching was and just how bad the hitting
was. After all, the surges of the Rockies and Phillies, bringing Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday to the front of the pack,
might have saved us from Eric Byrnes of the 104 OPS+ in left being taken seriously as an MVP candidate (as he was at times in
the middle of the season).
The offense should be better but the pitching shouldn’t drop off too much, which makes the Diamondbacks yet another contender
in a crowded NL field. What makes the Diamondbacks especially dangerous is those little twos in the age column - the major
league squad is chock-full of players that are at ages they can improve. Counting on an individual young player to improve
is generally not as good a bet as most people think. However, when massed as they are in Arizona, they act almost as an
index stock - it doesn’t really matter if it’s Mark Reynolds or Conor Jackson or Chris Young or Stephen Drew or Justin Upton
make a huge step forward so long as some of them do, which the odds do favor. I don’t know if it will be Conor
Jackson hitting 25 homers or Chris Young rebounding from a weak rookie season or Justin Upton making huge adjustments
carefully, but I know that there are going to be some player on this team that are going to move over a bunch of those dashed
lines below.
This completes the team-by-team ZiPS projections. Now I can start finalizing rosters and players. By popular interest, I’m
going to release the DMB disk and spreadsheet as often as possible, even when not complete. The first build will include all
40-man rosters, non-roster invitees, and verified minor league signings and should appear in the next several days (with the
rest of the players, new/requested projections and lower-level minor leagues following). Well, most 40-man rosters as
there are a few players on 40-man rosters I can’t really do projections for, including players from Cuba and those with
little or no professional experience (and no chance at making a roster soon).
I hope you all have enjoyed the team-by-team rundown of projections. It would be neater to simply add them all at once, but
I think the discussions that result from doing them one-by-one are quite interesting. As usual, all suggestions for
formatting and various other things you’d like to see in future projections are much appreciated. Also, any players that you
would like to see a projection for that I can reasonably do!
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.287 .366 .498—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.285 .373 .479—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.285 .369 .481—————————————————————
Chad Tracy* 3b 28 .291 .360 .492 120 423 62 123 30 2 17 69 42 79 2 0
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.282 .366 .471—————————————————————
Conor Jackson 1b 26 .290 .372 .457 143 462 68 134 33 1 14 68 57 64 2 1
Orlando Hudson# 2b 30 .295 .368 .452 141 516 75 152 31 7 12 71 59 78 7 2
Tony Clark# 1b 36 .259 .326 .517 109 232 29 60 10 1 16 46 23 63 0 0
Mark Reynolds 3b 24 .274 .339 .481 143 486 71 133 29 3 22 82 45 158 2 2
Javier Brito 1b 25 .287 .358 .435 140 474 55 136 32 1 12 65 48 101 1 1
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.279 .357 .443—————————————————————
Eric Byrnes lf 32 .278 .338 .455 134 508 77 141 29 5 17 74 39 80 28 4
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.284 .358 .432—————————————————————
Jamie D’Antona 3b 26 .288 .342 .447 130 483 56 139 34 2 13 68 38 74 1 1
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.282 .349 .425—————————————————————
AVERAGE C———————- c——.267 .352 .421—————————————————————
Jeff Salazar* cf 27 .265 .345 .425 123 445 71 118 28 5 11 58 51 84 12 5
Jeff Cirillo 3b 38 .285 .346 .411 85 207 28 59 15 1 3 24 19 22 2 1
Robby Hammock c 31 .276 .336 .414 75 239 23 66 13 1 6 32 19 34 2 2
Chris Young cf 24 .245 .309 .467 151 567 80 139 33 3 29 96 48 124 23 6
Cyle Hankerd cf 23 .280 .335 .402 128 478 46 134 31 0 9 58 26 99 1 3
Miguel Montero* c 24 .249 .322 .417 120 362 34 90 16 0 15 53 36 58 0 1
Stephen Drew* ss 25 .260 .323 .408 156 578 64 150 30 7 14 73 54 104 6 1
Chris Snyder c 27 .244 .328 .403 108 320 34 78 18 0 11 44 37 72 0 1
Alex Romero# rf 24 .279 .329 .398 135 513 63 143 38 4 5 55 36 51 14 9
Chris Burke 2b 28 .254 .328 .379 129 398 64 101 24 1 8 45 35 66 16 5
Justin Upton cf 20 .248 .313 .404 154 572 64 142 33 4 16 74 48 138 19 12
Don Kelly* ss 28 .261 .330 .351 111 356 46 93 20 3 2 34 34 44 11 7
Augie Ojeda# ss 33 .249 .326 .324 107 281 38 70 13 1 2 25 29 30 3 0
Tim Raines Jr.# lf 28 .258 .300 .375 122 392 46 101 18 2 8 39 21 91 20 8
Dave Krynzel* cf 26 .220 .281 .356 104 337 44 74 16 3 8 39 26 91 12 6
Wilkin Castillo# c 24 .250 .279 .354 108 384 35 96 26 1 4 39 13 60 13 10
Emilio Bonifacio# 2b 23 .245 .282 .312 142 564 72 138 26 3 2 46 27 117 36 15
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Tracy* Av Av Av Av
Jackson Av
Hudson# Av
Clark# Av
Reynolds Fr Av
Brito Fr Fr
Byrnes Vg Fr Vg
D’Antona Fr Av Av
Salazar* Vg Av Vg
Cirillo Vg Fr Vg Pr
Hammock Av Av Fr Fr Fr
Young Av
Hankerd Pr
Montero* Fr
Drew* Fr
Snyder Av
Romero# Av Fr Av
Burke Av Fr Fr Pr Fr
Upton Av Av Av
Kelly* Av Fr Av Fr
Ojeda# Vg Vg Vg
Raines# Vg Fr Vg
Krynzel* Vg Av Vg
Castillo# Fr Fr Fr Fr Av
Bonifacio# Av Fr
Player Spotlight - Stephen Drew
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .283 .354 .462 162 600 79 170 35 9 18 88 66 97 12 1 105 -1
Mean .260 .323 .408 156 578 64 150 30 7 14 73 54 104 6 1 85 -5
Pessimistic (15%) .232 .287 .335 144 534 40 124 23 4 8 53 41 113 3 2 56 -9
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Chris Speier, Andujar Cedeno
Player Spotlight - Chris Young
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .270 .343 .528 161 608 101 164 39 5 36 117 62 121 34 5 117 4
Mean .245 .309 .467 151 567 80 139 33 3 29 96 48 124 23 6 94 1
Pessimistic (15%) .216 .272 .394 142 533 54 115 27 1 22 75 37 139 15 7 67 -3
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Andruw Jones, Dale Murphy
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Brandon Webb 29 3.01 18 7 31 31 224.0 203 75 12 53 180
Doug Slaten* 28 3.63 4 2 64 0 57.0 54 23 4 25 49
Juan Cruz 29 3.67 5 3 42 8 81.0 67 33 7 42 94
Tony Pena 26 3.69 7 4 74 0 83.0 79 34 8 26 59
Brandon Lyon 28 3.82 4 3 65 0 66.0 69 28 5 19 39
Chad Qualls 29 3.86 6 5 79 0 84.0 82 36 10 26 67
Bob Wickman 39 3.88 3 3 54 0 51.0 51 22 5 17 37
Danny Haren 27 3.92 14 11 33 33 216.0 214 94 27 46 177
Randy Johnson* 44 3.99 9 8 22 22 142.0 129 63 20 34 154
Max Scherzer 23 4.35 5 6 18 18 89.0 82 43 8 57 76
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.44———————————————————————-
Micah Owings 25 4.47 8 9 29 28 163.0 169 81 19 56 108
Brandon Medders 28 4.56 5 6 67 0 77.0 78 39 10 40 59
Doug Davis* 32 4.66 10 12 32 32 193.0 202 100 21 87 149
Jailen Peguero 27 4.78 4 4 64 0 79.0 78 42 9 45 60
Connor Robertson 26 4.79 3 4 45 0 62.0 65 33 7 29 49
Edgar Gonzalez 25 4.81 7 8 32 20 146.0 157 78 26 33 105
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.87———————————————————————-
Dustin Nippert 27 5.14 5 7 32 16 112.0 117 64 15 55 84
Brooks Brown 22 5.16 4 7 22 17 96.0 100 55 10 56 58
Leonel Rosales 27 5.22 4 5 46 0 50.0 53 29 8 22 40
Emiliano Fruto 24 5.34 4 7 36 10 91.0 90 54 10 68 64
Bill Murphy* 27 5.37 4 6 49 14 114.0 120 68 16 67 89
Yusmeiro Petit 23 5.49 6 11 32 24 141.0 159 86 26 52 86
Livan Hernandez 33 5.55 7 14 30 30 193.0 233 119 31 75 103
Billy Buckner 24 5.74 6 13 33 25 152.0 173 97 26 72 98
Esmerling Vasquez 24 5.85 5 9 30 24 120.0 141 78 19 71 88
Juan Gutierrez 24 5.94 5 11 29 26 153.0 173 101 27 64 89
Daniel Stange 22 6.00 3 7 45 0 48.0 52 32 8 30 40
Hector Ambriz 24 6.10 6 13 29 27 143.0 162 97 24 84 86
Matt Torra 24 6.15 4 9 19 19 101.0 121 69 17 45 56
Matt Green 26 6.66 4 12 25 25 127.0 157 94 28 61 68
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Doug Davis
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.78 13 10 34 34 212 203 89 17 80 171 124
Mean 4.66 10 12 32 32 193 202 100 21 87 149 101
Pessimistic (15%) 5.84 6 12 26 26 151 178 98 22 79 106 80
Top Near-Age Comps: Jim Bibby, Pat Rapp
Player Spotlight - Brandon Webb
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 2.50 20 5 32 32 234 196 65 10 51 204 188
Mean 3.01 18 7 31 31 224 203 75 12 53 180 156
Pessimistic (15%) 4.11 11 10 26 26 175 179 80 15 56 131 114
Top Near-Age Comps: Frank Sullivan, Roger Clemens
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:18 PM |
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