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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, January 27, 2008

2008 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

As obvious as one of the main storylines of 2007 was, the pitching being top-notch and the offense being, well, otherwise,

the park made these actually more extreme, masking to some degree just how good the pitching was and just how bad the hitting

was.  After all, the surges of the Rockies and Phillies, bringing Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday to the front of the pack,

might have saved us from Eric Byrnes of the 104 OPS+ in left being taken seriously as an MVP candidate (as he was at times in

the middle of the season).

The offense should be better but the pitching shouldn’t drop off too much, which makes the Diamondbacks yet another contender

in a crowded NL field.  What makes the Diamondbacks especially dangerous is those little twos in the age column - the major

league squad is chock-full of players that are at ages they can improve.  Counting on an individual young player to improve

is generally not as good a bet as most people think.  However, when massed as they are in Arizona, they act almost as an

index stock - it doesn’t really matter if it’s Mark Reynolds or Conor Jackson or Chris Young or Stephen Drew or Justin Upton

make a huge step forward so long as some of them do, which the odds do favor.  I don’t know if it will be Conor

Jackson hitting 25 homers or Chris Young rebounding from a weak rookie season or Justin Upton making huge adjustments

carefully, but I know that there are going to be some player on this team that are going to move over a bunch of those dashed

lines below.

This completes the team-by-team ZiPS projections.  Now I can start finalizing rosters and players.  By popular interest, I’m

going to release the DMB disk and spreadsheet as often as possible, even when not complete.  The first build will include all

40-man rosters, non-roster invitees, and verified minor league signings and should appear in the next several days (with the

rest of the players, new/requested projections and lower-level minor leagues following).  Well, most 40-man rosters as

there are a few players on 40-man rosters I can’t really do projections for, including players from Cuba and those with

little or no professional experience (and no chance at making a roster soon).

I hope you all have enjoyed the team-by-team rundown of projections.  It would be neater to simply add them all at once, but

I think the discussions that result from doing them one-by-one are quite interesting.  As usual, all suggestions for

formatting and various other things you’d like to see in future projections are much appreciated.  Also, any players that you

would like to see a projection for that I can reasonably do!


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.287 .366 .498—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.285 .373 .479—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.285 .369 .481—————————————————————
Chad Tracy*          3b 28 .291 .360 .492 120 423 62 123 30 2 17 69 42 79 2 0
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.282 .366 .471—————————————————————
Conor Jackson         1b 26 .290 .372 .457 143 462 68 134 33 1 14 68 57 64 2 1
Orlando Hudson#      2b 30 .295 .368 .452 141 516 75 152 31 7 12 71 59 78 7 2
Tony Clark#          1b 36 .259 .326 .517 109 232 29 60 10 1 16 46 23 63 0 0
Mark Reynolds         3b 24 .274 .339 .481 143 486 71 133 29 3 22 82 45 158 2 2
Javier Brito         1b 25 .287 .358 .435 140 474 55 136 32 1 12 65 48 101 1 1
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.279 .357 .443—————————————————————
Eric Byrnes         lf 32 .278 .338 .455 134 508 77 141 29 5 17 74 39 80 28 4
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.284 .358 .432—————————————————————
Jamie D’Antona       3b 26 .288 .342 .447 130 483 56 139 34 2 13 68 38 74 1 1
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.282 .349 .425—————————————————————
AVERAGE C———————- c——.267 .352 .421—————————————————————
Jeff Salazar*        cf 27 .265 .345 .425 123 445 71 118 28 5 11 58 51 84 12 5
Jeff Cirillo         3b 38 .285 .346 .411 85 207 28 59 15 1 3 24 19 22 2 1
Robby Hammock         c   31 .276 .336 .414 75 239 23 66 13 1 6 32 19 34 2 2
Chris Young         cf 24 .245 .309 .467 151 567 80 139 33 3 29 96 48 124 23 6
Cyle Hankerd         cf 23 .280 .335 .402 128 478 46 134 31 0 9 58 26 99 1 3
Miguel Montero*      c   24 .249 .322 .417 120 362 34 90 16 0 15 53 36 58 0 1
Stephen Drew*        ss 25 .260 .323 .408 156 578 64 150 30 7 14 73 54 104 6 1
Chris Snyder         c   27 .244 .328 .403 108 320 34 78 18 0 11 44 37 72 0 1
Alex Romero#        rf 24 .279 .329 .398 135 513 63 143 38 4 5 55 36 51 14 9
Chris Burke         2b 28 .254 .328 .379 129 398 64 101 24 1 8 45 35 66 16 5
Justin Upton         cf 20 .248 .313 .404 154 572 64 142 33 4 16 74 48 138 19 12
Don Kelly*          ss 28 .261 .330 .351 111 356 46 93 20 3 2 34 34 44 11 7
Augie Ojeda#        ss 33 .249 .326 .324 107 281 38 70 13 1 2 25 29 30 3 0
Tim Raines Jr.#      lf 28 .258 .300 .375 122 392 46 101 18 2 8 39 21 91 20 8
Dave Krynzel*        cf 26 .220 .281 .356 104 337 44 74 16 3 8 39 26 91 12 6
Wilkin Castillo#      c   24 .250 .279 .354 108 384 35 96 26 1 4 39 13 60 13 10
Emilio Bonifacio#      2b 23 .245 .282 .312 142 564 72 138 26 3 2 46 27 117 36 15

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Tracy*            Av   Av   Av   Av
Jackson           Av            
Hudson#              Av          
Clark#            Av            
Reynolds             Fr Av        
Brito             Fr           Fr
Byrnes                     Vg Fr Vg
D’Antona       Fr   Av   Av        
Salazar*                  Vg Av Vg
Cirillo           Vg Fr Vg Pr      
Hammock         Av   Av   Fr   Fr   Fr
Young                       Av  
Hankerd                   Pr    
Montero*        Fr                
Drew*                  Fr      
Snyder         Av                
Romero#                    Av Fr Av
Burke               Av   Fr Fr Pr Fr
Upton                     Av Av Av
Kelly*            Av Fr Av Fr      
Ojeda#              Vg Vg Vg      
Raines#                    Vg Fr Vg
Krynzel*                  Vg Av Vg
Castillo#      Fr     Fr Fr Fr     Av
Bonifacio#            Av   Fr      

Player Spotlight - Stephen Drew
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .283 .354 .462 162 600 79 170 35 9 18 88 66 97 12 1 105 -1  
Mean         .260 .323 .408 156 578 64 150 30 7 14 73 54 104 6 1   85 -5
Pessimistic (15%) .232 .287 .335 144 534 40 124 23 4 8 53 41 113 3 2   56 -9

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Chris Speier, Andujar Cedeno

Player Spotlight - Chris Young
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .270 .343 .528 161 608 101 164 39 5 36 117 62 121 34 5 117   4
Mean         .245 .309 .467 151 567 80 139 33 3 29 96 48 124 23 6   94   1
Pessimistic (15%) .216 .272 .394 142 533 54 115 27 1 22 75 37 139 15 7   67 -3  

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Andruw Jones, Dale Murphy

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Brandon Webb         29   3.01 18   7 31 31   224.0 203   75 12   53 180
Doug Slaten*          28   3.63   4   2 64   0   57.0   54   23   4   25   49
Juan Cruz           29   3.67   5   3 42   8   81.0   67   33   7   42   94
Tony Pena           26   3.69   7   4 74   0   83.0   79   34   8   26   59
Brandon Lyon         28   3.82   4   3 65   0   66.0   69   28   5   19   39
Chad Qualls           29   3.86   6   5 79   0   84.0   82   36 10   26   67
Bob Wickman           39   3.88   3   3 54   0   51.0   51   22   5   17   37
Danny Haren           27   3.92 14 11 33 33   216.0 214   94 27   46 177
Randy Johnson*        44   3.99   9   8 22 22   142.0 129   63 20   34 154
Max Scherzer         23   4.35   5   6 18 18   89.0   82   43   8   57   76
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.44———————————————————————-
Micah Owings         25   4.47   8   9 29 28   163.0 169   81 19   56 108
Brandon Medders       28   4.56   5   6 67   0   77.0   78   39 10   40   59
Doug Davis*          32   4.66 10 12 32 32   193.0 202 100 21   87 149
Jailen Peguero         27   4.78   4   4 64   0   79.0   78   42   9   45   60
Connor Robertson       26   4.79   3   4 45   0   62.0   65   33   7   29   49
Edgar Gonzalez         25   4.81   7   8 32 20   146.0 157   78 26   33 105
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.87———————————————————————-
Dustin Nippert         27   5.14   5   7 32 16   112.0 117   64 15   55   84
Brooks Brown         22   5.16   4   7 22 17   96.0 100   55 10   56   58
Leonel Rosales         27   5.22   4   5 46   0   50.0   53   29   8   22   40
Emiliano Fruto         24   5.34   4   7 36 10   91.0   90   54 10   68   64
Bill Murphy*          27   5.37   4   6 49 14   114.0 120   68 16   67   89
Yusmeiro Petit         23   5.49   6 11 32 24   141.0 159   86 26   52   86
Livan Hernandez       33   5.55   7 14 30 30   193.0 233 119 31   75 103
Billy Buckner         24   5.74   6 13 33 25   152.0 173   97 26   72   98
Esmerling Vasquez       24   5.85   5   9 30 24   120.0 141   78 19   71   88
Juan Gutierrez         24   5.94   5 11 29 26   153.0 173 101 27   64   89
Daniel Stange         22   6.00   3   7 45   0   48.0   52   32   8   30   40
Hector Ambriz         24   6.10   6 13 29 27   143.0 162   97 24   84   86
Matt Torra           24   6.15   4   9 19 19   101.0 121   69 17   45   56
Matt Green           26   6.66   4 12 25 25   127.0 157   94 28   61   68

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Doug Davis
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.78 13 10 34 34 212 203   89 17   80 171   124
Mean           4.66 10 12 32 32 193 202 100 21   87 149   101
Pessimistic (15%)  5.84   6 12 26 26 151 178   98 22   79 106   80

Top Near-Age Comps:  Jim Bibby, Pat Rapp

Player Spotlight - Brandon Webb
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  2.50 20   5 32 32 234 196   65 10   51 204   188
Mean           3.01 18   7 31 31 224 203   75 12   53 180   156
Pessimistic (15%)  4.11 11 10 26 26 175 179   80 15   56 131   114

Top Near-Age Comps:  Frank Sullivan, Roger Clemens

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 27, 2008 at 08:18 PM | 105 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. 1k5v3L Posted: May 01, 2008 at 06:01 AM (#2764852)
Mark Reynolds is on pace to K 236 times this year.
And 38 homers, 110 rbi, and 94 chicks scored upon.
   102. shoewizard Posted: May 01, 2008 at 06:19 AM (#2764857)
If he continues to be on pace to K 200 times past the all star break, he's not going to get enough at bats in the second half to get to those other counting stats. Anyway, I'm trashing on him because every time I do, he starts another hot streak.
Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2

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