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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, January 26, 2008

2008 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves

It’s starting to look like the Braves’ 2006 total of 79 wins represents the low-water mark for a while.

Considering their prominence in the NL over the last 15 years, it’s surprising how quiet the Braves snuck back towards contention last year.  On the offensive side, if the Big 5 can stay healthy, Atlanta has to be one of the favorites for the Wild Card and a contender for the division.  The path of Kelly Johnson and Matt Die-az are clearer nw than ever before and there’s little reason to think Brian McCann can’t get back to his 2006 level of play, though catchers seem to age in bizarre ways at times.  This offense plus General Zod and Hudson and this is a very dangerous October team.

The Braves are, however, probably more susceptible to injuries than the average team.  There aren’t a lot of backups at the offensive positions (they could survive with Pena at catcher and Prado/Lillibridge in the middle infield) and the rotation has little depth past the major leaguers.  The Braves system has some really interesting players, but they’re mainly very far off and even the ones I projected, like Schafer and Flowers, are a few years away.  This is a team that really should be thinking about overpaying Kyle Lohse.  Lohse hasn’t attracted much interest (or at least it seems that way from the no-buzz surrounding him) and if that’s really the case, I don’t think a 2-year, $20 million offer would be all that bad an idea.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Chipper Jones#        3b 36 .318 .415 .564 111 406 80 129 30 2 22 85 67 66 4 0
Mark Teixeira#        1b 28 .296 .384 .523 147 568 93 168 32 2 31 116 81 119 2 0
Brian McCann*        c   24 .300 .361 .512 143 506 61 152 38 0 23 94 46 70 1 0
Matt Diaz           lf 30 .332 .364 .499 136 377 49 125 24 3 11 61 16 71 6 3
Kelly Johnson*        2b 26 .271 .376 .464 124 431 72 117 24 7 15 69 69 96 7 5
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.279 .358 .466—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.274 .348 .448—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.273 .345 .450—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.274 .342 .440—————————————————————
Yunel Escobar         ss 25 .297 .361 .404 143 505 67 150 32 2 6 63 47 84 8 7
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.268 .335 .418—————————————————————
Jeff Francoeur       rf 24 .279 .321 .447 161 645 84 180 35 2 23 101 35 131 1 3
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.273 .335 .406—————————————————————
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.271 .328 .399—————————————————————
Mark Kotsay*        cf 32 .277 .334 .388 103 412 48 114 23 1 7 50 35 41 3 2
Javy Lopez           c   37 .267 .311 .419 96 356 37 95 22 1 10 50 20 76 0 0
AVERAGE C———————c——- .253 .317 .391—————————————————————
Julio Franco         1b 49 .257 .339 .353 89 167 18 43 7 0 3 20 20 42 4 1
Scott Thorman*        1b 26 .249 .296 .431 150 457 50 114 27 1 18 72 28 97 2 1
Brandon Jones*        rf 24 .250 .305 .412 136 524 46 131 29 4 16 76 40 131 14 7
Martin Prado         2b 24 .281 .324 .365 142 502 56 141 26 2 4 54 32 70 3 3
Omar Infante         2b 26 .264 .304 .393 102 303 38 80 18 3 5 30 17 54 5 1
Brent Lillibridge     ss 24 .250 .314 .377 146 539 66 135 26 3 12 68 44 137 37 13
Gregor Blanco*        cf 24 .261 .349 .333 149 559 84 146 26 4 2 53 74 124 27 17
Brayan Pena#        c   26 .278 .313 .368 113 378 36 105 20 1 4 41 19 44 4 5
Corky Miller         c   32 .211 .306 .352 69 199 17 42 10 0 6 26 20 38 2 0
Tyler Flowers         1b 22 .238 .293 .396 118 454 44 108 31 1 13 62 33 108 2 7
Josh Anderson*        rf 25 .268 .312 .327 150 590 71 158 21 4 2 46 30 87 31 12
Javier Guzman         ss 24 .250 .285 .334 107 380 39 95 16 2 4 28 16 56 7 5
Chris Woodward       2b 32 .224 .283 .321 81 165 18 37 8 1 2 16 13 40 1 0
Jordan Schafer*      cf 21 .229 .270 .370 137 533 46 122 32 5 11 64 29 150 16 15
Clint Sammons         c   25 .211 .256 .311 110 383 23 81 17 0 7 39 21 91 2 2

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Jones#                Av        
Teixeira#          Av            
McCann*        Fr                
Diaz                     Vg   Av
Johnson*            Fr     Fr   Fr
Escobar             Av Av Av      
Francoeur                       Av
Kotsay*            Av         Av  
Lopez         Pr                
Franco             Av            
Thorman*          Av       Av    
Jones*                    Vg   Vg
Prado               Av Av Fr      
Infante             Av Av Fr   Av Av
Lillibridge           Av   Av      
Blanco*                    Vg Av Vg
Pena#          Vg   Av   Fr   Fr   Fr
Miller         Av                
Flowers         Av   Av            
Anderson*                  Vg Av Vg
Guzman               Av   Fr Av Av  
Woodward           Vg Av Vg Av Av   Av
Schafer*                    Vg  
Sammons         Vg                

Player Spotlight - Brian McCann
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .329 .395 .592 154 544 79 179 45 1 32 120 57 67 3 0 153   1
Mean         .300 .361 .512 143 506 61 152 38 0 23 94 46 70 1 0 124 -1
Pessimistic (15%) .277 .327 .457 133 470 42 130 31 0 18 76 33 76 0 1 102 -4

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Johnny Bench, Ivan Rodriguez

Player Spotlight - Jeff Francoeur
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .302 .352 .500 162 650 99 196 40 4 27 115 43 119 6 1 119   6
Mean         .279 .323 .447 161 645 84 180 35 2 23 101 35 131 1 3   98   2
Pessimistic (15%) .250 .284 .375 149 597 55 149 27 0 16 77 24 143 0 4   70 -2  

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ruben Sierra, Ellis Valentine

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Mike Gonzalez*        30   2.47   3   1 40   0   40.0   30   11   1   22   48
Rafael Soriano         28   3.05   3   1 55   0   56.0   48   19   7   14   62
John Smoltz           41   3.35 14   7 31 31   204.0 191   76 18   49 181
Peter Moylan         29   3.67   5   3 66   0   81.0   75   33   6   37   61
Mike Hampton*        35   3.71   1   1   3   3   17.0   18   7   1   5   7
Will Ohman*          30   3.76   3   2 75   0   55.0   49   23   4   27   55
Tim Hudson           32   3.88 14   9 30 30   197.0 198   85 17   59 128
Phil Stockman         28   3.91   2   1 36   2   46.0   41   20   3   29   42
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.07———————————————————————-
Tyler Yates           30   4.22   3   3 70   0   64.0   57   30   6   34   67
Jair Jurrjens         22   4.27   8   7 27 27   158.0 170   75 19   34   96
Kris Medlen           22   4.30   2   1 40   0   46.0   45   22   6   18   45
Royce Ring*          27   4.34   3   3 59   0   58.0   55   28   6   33   50
Chuck James*          26   4.44   9   9 30 27   154.0 157   76 25   49 118
Blaine Boyer         26   4.45   5   5 41 11   89.0   90   44   6   51   64
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.46———————————————————————-
Chris Resop           25   4.50   3   3 49   0   64.0   66   32   7   27   49
Tom Glavine*          42   4.59 11 11 32 32   192.0 216   98 21   63 100
Rheal Cormier*        41   4.65   1   2 39   0   31.0   34   16   4   12   19
Manny Acosta         27   4.87   5   5 50   0   61.0   57   33   6   48   49
Buddy Carlyle         30   4.91   5   6 24 14   88.0   92   48 17   26   80
Jorge Campillo         29   4.94   6   6 24 18   133.0 152   73 16   32   59
Jeff Bennett         28   5.00   4   4 49   3   81.0   88   45 12   34   48
Matt DeSalvo         27   5.01   7   9 26 25   140.0 145   78 15   82   90
Zach Schreiber         26   5.06   3   4 52   0   64.0   66   36   8   43   56
Jo-Jo Reyes*          23   5.22   7 10 29 28   150.0 154   87 21   84 108
Jonathon Rouwenhorst*    28   5.54   6   9 41 13   112.0 130   69 18   42   62
Jeff Ridgway*        27   5.57   2   5 51   2   63.0   70   39 12   30   51
Anthony Lerew         25   5.76   3   6 18 16   86.0   95   55 14   46   54
Charlie Morton         24   6.65   4   8 38 10   92.0 109   68 16   61   48
Jairo Cuevas         24   6.91   5 14 27 25   129.0 149   99 27   98   82
Thomas Hanson         21   7.49   3 11 26 25   119.0 145   99 36   63   93

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Tim Hudson
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.06 17   6 31 31 212 194   72 14   50 145   141
Mean           3.88 14   9 30 30 197 198   85 17   59 128   111
Pessimistic (15%)  5.03   9 10 25 25 152 176   85 16   59   83   86

Top Near-Age Comps:  Rick Rhoden, Doug Drabek

Player Spotlight - Chuck James
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.48 13   7 33 30 176 159   68 23   48 144   124
Mean           4.44   9   9 30 27 154 157   76 25   49 116   97
Pessimistic (15%)  5.77   6   9 25 23 120 138   77 26   46   85   75

Top Near-Age Comps:  Donovan Osborne, Ray Sadecki

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions


HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_washington_nationals/"

>Nationals

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_toronto_blue_jays/">Bl

ue Jays

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_texas_rangers/">Ranger

s

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_tampa_bay_devil_rays/"

>Rays

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_st_louis_cardinals/">C

ardinals

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projection_seattle_mariners/">Mari

ners

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_san_francisco_giants/"

>Giants

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_san_diego_padres/">Pad

res

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_pittsburgh_pirates/">P

irates

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_philadelphia_phillies/

">Phillies

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A’s

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_new_york_yankees/">Yan

kees

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_new_york_mets/">Mets

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_minnesota_twins/">Twin

s

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_milwaukee_brewers/">Br

ewers

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_los_angeles_dodgers/">

Dodgers

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_los_angeheim_angels/">

Angels

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_kansas_city_royals/">R

oyals

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_houston_astros/">Astro

s

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_florida_marlins/">Marl

ins

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HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_detroit_tigers/">Tiger

s Projections

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_colorado_rockies/">Rock

ies Projections

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_cleveland_indians/">Ind

ians Projections

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_cincinnati_reds/">Reds

Projections

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_chicago_white_sox/">Whi

te Sox Projections

Cubs

Projections

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_boston_red_sox/">Red

Sox Projections

HREF="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_baltimore_orioles/">Or

ioles Projections

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 26, 2008 at 12:35 AM | 63 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 26, 2008 at 01:01 AM (#2676326)
This is probably the best team in the NL East as of right now. I'll take the under on the McCann prjection though.
   2. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 26, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#2676328)
I will take the over on Frenchy though.
   3. dreamydave Posted: January 26, 2008 at 01:27 AM (#2676339)
how many players have a higher projected ops than chipper? wow
   4. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: January 26, 2008 at 01:33 AM (#2676343)
What's the optimistic projection for games started for Mike Hampton? I find it funny his projcted games started is 3.
   5. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: January 26, 2008 at 01:35 AM (#2676344)
Is Javy Lopez really in the organization? I thought he was done.
   6. bibigon Posted: January 26, 2008 at 01:45 AM (#2676349)
This is a pretty sick offensive projection for the Braves, and yet I could see them still losing the division to the Mets by a bunch of games.
   7. Foster Posted: January 26, 2008 at 01:45 AM (#2676350)
The Braves can hit a little. And yeah, I think they signed Javy to a minor league look see.
   8. Foster Posted: January 26, 2008 at 01:46 AM (#2676351)
yet I could see them still losing the division to the Mets by a bunch of games.

Someone should forward these projections to Omar and see if he gives the Twins a ring this weekend.
   9. Neil Kinnock...Lord Palmerston! (Orinoco) Posted: January 26, 2008 at 01:59 AM (#2676358)
Ouch, what a lineup. Not only does it look as potent as the Phillies lineup, it is also much more aesthetically pleasing. No Three True Outcomes guy there.

(rhetorical question)Where the heck did Matt Diaz come from?
   10. Colonel Mortimer Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:17 AM (#2676361)
Dan, maybe you've explained this before, but why are your projections so pessimistic? In comparison to Bill James, Marcel and CHONE, ZiPS (the Mean) always predicts the bleakest results.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:20 AM (#2676362)
Where the heck did Matt Diaz come from?

Diaz was a Phelpser that played bad defense in left and a lots of high BAs. Turns out he had a bad vision problem that prevented him from seeing depth (the Lamar-run Devil Rays never tested him) and the Braves fixed his vision. His defensive numbers in left have been excellent since (2007 in particular), by ZR, THT's ZR, and he was the best defensive LF in baseball by Pinto.
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:21 AM (#2676363)
What's the optimistic projection for games started for Mike Hampton? I find it funny his projcted games started is 3.

The optimistic projection is 5. His pessimistic projection is actually 0. I've never had ZiPS tell me that before.
   13. PS is probably going to lose his mind Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:25 AM (#2676366)
Diaz was a random minor league pickup from a few years back, and he just started hitting .300 in a platoon role. They insisted keeping the platoon, and got Willie Harris going last year to surprising effect. He doesn't seem to suck against righties, but Cox insists to keep what works...

Combine this projection and that Vg in left, and how Brandom Jones isn't projected to pan out yet, and we might see a full year of Diaz.
   14. Honkie Kong Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:26 AM (#2676368)
Think the projection on Jones ( Brandon )is a bit low.
Whats heartening is that 4 starting pitchers are projected as above average and then Glavine. Not counting Hampton ofcourse. Boyer might start a few games as a swingman.
Also the projection on Reyes. His peripherals seem to have been shot , but his minor league record is actually quite good.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:29 AM (#2676369)
Dan, maybe you've explained this before, but why are your projections so pessimistic? In comparison to Bill James, Marcel and CHONE, ZiPS (the Mean) always predicts the bleakest results.

They're not. I've tracked groups of major league players every year and I've been in the middle of the pack for the same players of the common projection systems. BP tracked it last year as well. For the group of players with 200 PA and 40 innings (or some such cutoff), I was, as usual, in the middle of the pack for OPS and the middle of the pack for ERA. As far as I know, I've never even been the second-most-optimistic or second-most-pessismistic in any summary statistic.

From what I've tracked, nobody in the pack has been an outlier positive or negative with the exception of the James projections, which have been the most optimistic on individual players more often than every other system combined. I've tracked James projecting as many as 23 starting position players at a position being above average. Of course, they're not really James's projections, he's the brand name.

I haven't checked who's been optimistic or pessimistic this offseason. But I haven't made any change whatsoever that would cause my projections to be more pessimistic than in the past.
   16. Honkie Kong Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:32 AM (#2676372)
oops no edit. You do project Boyer to start a few games.

Diaz was picked up from the Royals couple of years during ST. They had an outfield jam :)
Hmm hope Chipper stay healthy
   17. Honkie Kong Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:35 AM (#2676374)
And fantastic KJ projection. 850 ops and Utley for 896! so basically, ZiPS is saying the Braves have an ( a? ) Utley of their own.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:37 AM (#2676376)
OK, found BP's recent look for 2007.

All players with 250 PA (OPS)

ESPN: .804
Rotowire: .802
Marcel: .799
Rototimes: .796
PECOTA: .796
ZiPS: .783
CHONE: .782
ACTUAL: .777
THT: .771

All pitchers with 50 IP (ERA)

THT: 4.43
Marcel: 4.41
PECOTA: 4.38
ZiPS: 4.33
ACTUAL: 4.27
Rototimes: 4.21
ESPN: 4.21
Rotowire: 4.16
CHONE: 4.11

All told, slightly half my overall error from the proper average was missing league average (I had projected slightly higher offense than actual). When that's taken into account, I was too optimistic on hitters by 0.003 points of OPS and too pessimistic on pitchers by 0.04 points of ERA.
   19. shock Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:38 AM (#2676377)
Dan, the Rock ies, Ind ians, Reds, Whi te Sox and, Or ioles Projections links all link to this page.
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:38 AM (#2676378)
And fantastic KJ projection. 850 ops and Utley for 896! so basically, ZiPS is saying the Braves have an ( a? ) Utley of their own.

As much as I like KJ, Utley's definitely quite a bit better defensively.
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:40 AM (#2676379)
Dan, the Rock ies, Ind ians, Reds, Whi te Sox and, Or ioles Projections links all link to this page.

Oops, I broke the fix!
   22. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 26, 2008 at 03:33 AM (#2676412)
Diaz was a Phelpser that played bad defense in left and a lots of high BAs.
I'm a minority of one in believing this, but his defense was never that bad in the corners to begin with - his speed (used to be a tiny bit faster) compensated for his occasional bad breaks.

Javy's back on a minor league deal.

I'm generally loathe to suggest additional positions, for a variety of reasons, but you may want to add CF to Lillibridge, as some think he'll get a decent amount of time there in '08 (I don't) and he has played there in winter ball and college.
   23. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: January 26, 2008 at 03:36 AM (#2676415)
Lopez's presence just surprises me because I thought he had retired due to only wanting to be a starter for somebody And now he's back in a spot where he certainly won't be that.
   24. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 26, 2008 at 03:46 AM (#2676423)
You're right, Ty - but I guess retirement didn't sit well with him. Here's the terms of his new deal:

... a contract paying $750,000 if he's put on the major-league roster and have the chance to earn $250,000 in performance bonuses: $50,000 each for 35, 50, 60, 70 and 80 starts.
   25. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 26, 2008 at 03:50 AM (#2676425)

Diaz was a Phelpser that played bad defense in left and a lots of high BAs. Turns out he had a bad vision problem that prevented him from seeing depth (the Lamar-run Devil Rays never tested him) and the Braves fixed his vision. His defensive numbers in left have been excellent since (2007 in particular), by ZR, THT's ZR, and he was the best defensive LF in baseball by Pinto.


Der-Komminskar disagrees, but I thought Diaz was terrible defensively in KC, even at the corners.

Diaz hit developed quite a bit of power late in the minors, yet that seems to have disappeared in the majors.

Is his .332 AVG the highest ZIPS projected average in the league?
   26. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 26, 2008 at 04:30 AM (#2676440)
I thought Diaz was terrible defensively in KC, even at the corners.


That probably was vision-related. When I saw him in the minors, he was awful as well.

-- MWE
   27. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: January 26, 2008 at 06:13 AM (#2676471)
I'd take a .361 OBP from Yutility in a second. I really I doubt I'll get it though.

Love the Ridgeway projection. You go get 'um Frank!
   28. xeifrank Posted: January 26, 2008 at 07:14 AM (#2676485)
Similarity scores for the three young Brave outfielders, based on HR, BB and K rates. These similarity scores are not taking into account which outfield position and the age of the players. Just the most similar young player with a 2008 ZIPS projection from any team so far, based on 2008 stats only.

Jeff Francouer
1) Seth Smith (Colorado)
2) Mather (St Louis)
3) Adam Lind (Toronto)

Brandon Jones
1) Felix Pie (Chicago Cubs)
2) F.Gutierrez (Cleveland)
3) Adam Lind (Toronto)

Gregor Blanco
1) Gardner (NYY)
2) Gwynn (Mil)
3) Bourn (Hou)

vr, Xeifrank
   29. RoelTorres Posted: January 26, 2008 at 07:32 AM (#2676491)
Hi Dan,

Are you planning on running projections for guys like Josh Hamilton (who was not on the Rangers when you ran their projections, and yet was already gone from the Reds when you did their team) or Miguel Tejada (who was not on the Astros when they were featured, and yet had been shipped out of Baltimore by the time the Orioles projections were run) who ended up in projection-limbo due to the staggered nature of the projections?
   30. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 26, 2008 at 07:47 AM (#2676493)
Hamilton's Ranger projection

Tejada's Astro projection

In the very top right of the pages on this site, there is a search feature. You can usually find the projections you are looking for entering "Hamilton Rangers" for example.
   31. xeifrank Posted: January 26, 2008 at 07:49 AM (#2676494)
Roel, pretty much all players who are traded/signed etc... are re-projected on a case by case basis seperate from their teams projection. You need to use the "Transaction Oracle" search engine. It takes a little bit of work, but they can be found, plus I believe Dan will be putting out an all encompassing set of projections, including all teams and all players after the last team, the Arizona Diamondbacks projections come out next week.
vr, Xeifrank
   32. RoelTorres Posted: January 26, 2008 at 07:54 AM (#2676497)
Thanks fellas,

I appreciate the helpful guidance.
   33. Brian White Posted: January 26, 2008 at 08:17 AM (#2676505)
I'll take the under on Chipper, Diaz, Yutility, and Chuck James, #####.

I'll take the over on Tex, Frenchy, and Glavine.
   34. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: January 26, 2008 at 11:12 AM (#2676519)
It's amazing to me how underrated Chipper still is. I remember a few years back when he had a sort of down year (248/362/485) by his standards, people were like, well, he needs a few more quality years to be a Hall of Famer, and over the second half of his career he seemed to be supplanted by Rolen and then Wright in public opinion as the "best third baseman in the league." Heck, even most of the talk about the Braves (nationwide) has been about Andruw and the pitching staff, through the dynasty years.

For the record, in the three seasons since the down year: .968, 1.005, 1.029.

This is an all-time great, folks.

(not even remotely a Braves fan speaking here)
   35. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 26, 2008 at 02:51 PM (#2676533)
Are you planning on running projections for guys like Josh Hamilton (who was not on the Rangers when you ran their projections, and yet was already gone from the Reds when you did their team) or Miguel Tejada (who was not on the Astros when they were featured, and yet had been shipped out of Baltimore by the time the Orioles projections were run) who ended up in projection-limbo due to the staggered nature of the projections?

Yeah, everybody appears in the overall ZiPS Spreadsheet and Disk Builds.
   36. DKDC Posted: January 26, 2008 at 05:42 PM (#2676558)
I knew Matt Diaz rang a bell.

That's one hell of a projection.
   37. gay guy in cut-offs smoking the objective pipe Posted: January 26, 2008 at 05:51 PM (#2676563)
The optimistic projection is 5. His pessimistic projection is actually 0. I've never had ZiPS tell me that before.

Damn you, Szymborski, you're KILLING MY DREAMS.
   38. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 26, 2008 at 08:10 PM (#2676603)
Though nearly alone (mm1f was with me as well) in claiming Diaz didn't stink on D, at least I was consistent (posts 20), 45, 17,and so on...).

Request, please, for SS/2B Diory Hernandez. I imagine his projection will stink, but if some of last year's gains with the bat are real, he's useful.
   39. John DiFool2 Posted: January 26, 2008 at 08:28 PM (#2676609)
If I were a betting man I definitely take the over on Francoeur. The above listed projection is inferior (.768) to his career stats (.782, which is also his '07 number), and doesn't take into account the probability of him having developed significantly last year. K/W improved from 5.73 to 3.07, overall W rate also went from 3.3% to 6%, so it would appear that he has taken control of strike zone to a sufficient extent that he'll probably keep his head above water. And he just turned 24. Not arguing that he'll turn into a superstar for sure, but that he has a pretty decent chance to be something special.
   40. Colin Posted: January 26, 2008 at 08:51 PM (#2676630)
I am soooooooooo psyched that we'll get 17 quality innings from Hampton. Sweet!

I think the Diaz projection is high on the SLG end, and Escobar probably has a bit of a return to earth ahead of him, but we'll see.
   41. Craig in MN Posted: January 26, 2008 at 09:37 PM (#2676642)
What's the optimistic projection for games started for Mike Hampton? I find it funny his projcted games started is 3.

The optimistic projection is 5. His pessimistic projection is actually 0. I've never had ZiPS tell me that before.


I just think this is the most entertaining projection ever. The only other possible scenario that would be better would be a Juan Gonzalez projection that had him at zero or one plate appearance.
   42. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: January 26, 2008 at 10:30 PM (#2676658)
I would be ecstatic with that line from Kotsay...
   43. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 26, 2008 at 10:35 PM (#2676660)
Just a FYI: Javier Guzman is 26, not 24. It came out during Age-Gate, but nobody really noticed. His '82 DOB is still up on the Altoona Curve's website, though, if you want to check.
   44. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 27, 2008 at 03:30 AM (#2676797)
Good call, Vlad. It's weird - almost nobody notices with Guzman, whereas lots of other guys have had their ages corrected. His minors.b-ref page is wrong, too...
   45. Red Robot Posted: January 27, 2008 at 04:35 AM (#2676820)
This is an all-time great, folks.
(not even remotely a Braves fan speaking here)


This Mets fan is 100% convinced that Chipper Jones is a deserving HOFer.
140 OPS+, 400+ HR, 1500 RBI if he hangs on long enough.

Third base hasn't been real friendly to HOF applicants (see Santo, Ron), but Chipper's numbers are far stronger. It also can't hurt that he is (or appears to be) steroid-free and that many of his contemporaries (Matt Williams, Rolen, Glaus) were unable to sustain their early-career dominance. Chipper is the defining offensive superstar of the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz Brave dynasty, and that will count for something in the minds of voters.

We've been calling for the dearth of enshrined 3Bs to be rectified for a while, right? Looks to me like Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Miguel Cabrera, and David Wright are all on the fast track to Cooperstown.
   46. Walt Davis Posted: January 27, 2008 at 05:47 AM (#2676849)
Chipper's only problem for the HoF at this point is his defensive rep. It will be interesting to see how much it hurts him.

I do this one all the time:

Jones thru 35: 1895 g, 2117 h, 425 2B, 386 HR, 1296 r, 1299 rbi, 307/403/546, 143 OPS+, 134/43 sb
Brett thru 35: 2013 g, 2399 h, 488 2B, 255 HR, 1233 r, 1231 rbi, 312/378/505, 142 OPS+, 161/80 sb

The main difference is Chipper got hurt and missed his age 22 season. The other big difference would be Chipper's two years in LF but Brett stopped playing 3B after 33 so Chipper has closed the gap to about 250 games at 3B. I love that they both have nearly equal r and rbi.

As a hitter, he is absolutely an inner-circle 3B. There is a lot of disagreement about his glove though I never thought he was substantially below-average.

For the record, in the three seasons since the down year: .968, 1.005, 1.029.

of course that was in "just" 353 games.
   47. Latnam's first name is Bob Lemon's middle name Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:44 AM (#2677206)
I'm cautiously optimistic for the upcoming season. Though, I'd be lying if I didn't say I had a little bit of fear that this is the year the wheels come off Smoltz, Chipper breaks a tibia and is out for the year in May, and Brian McCann decides to quit baseball and focus on his true love: 1/32 scale model airplanes.

But if none of those things happen, I'd say the Braves have a decent chance.
   48. Russ Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:24 AM (#2677230)
I think if Chipper dodges the steroid buckshot, he's in. Adultery is not a bannable offense in the minds of HOF voters (although an addiction to Hooter's wings may be).
   49. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: January 29, 2008 at 04:32 PM (#2678383)
The Matt Diaz story is one of my favorite all time baseball anecdotes. How do TWO major league baseball franchises fail to test eyesight? TWO!
   50. DCA Posted: January 29, 2008 at 04:50 PM (#2678397)
(although an addiction to Hooter's wings may be).

hooter's wings are pretty good. the waitresses, usually not so much.
   51. Kyle S Posted: January 29, 2008 at 04:59 PM (#2678409)
Apparently, Zone Rating says Chipper has been mostly average. Starting in 1995, here are his RS by year at third according to SG's database: 9, 0, 12, 8, -12, 4, 4, 12, 5, -4, 6.
   52. Dizzypaco Posted: January 29, 2008 at 05:23 PM (#2678436)
Without a steroid taint, I say he goes in first ballot. I think his defense will be viewed similar to Brett - a non factor in the minds of most voters.
   53. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: January 29, 2008 at 05:47 PM (#2678484)
Without a steroid taint, I say he goes in first ballot. I think his defense will be viewed similar to Brett - a non factor in the minds of most voters.

Absolutely. I just don't see a majority of sports writers saying "Chipper was a HOF bat, but his defensive rankings at Baseball Prospectus were always so low..." And really, when you talk about Chipper's "poor defense", you're talking about BPro's rankings. He doesn't fare poorly in any other system that I know of. He's usually a moderate to decent defender, and if you're a grizzled old beat writer listening to the scouts he has had flashes of actual goodness.

And he crushes the ball. Won an MVP, should have won another last year, the best hitter at 3B for his career until the Yanks moved the SS god off position, crucial part of the Braves dynasty, as of yet untainted with the steroid debacle, friendly in the clubhouse and with reporters, has the glow of Bobby Cox behind him. He definately _should_ go in first ballot. He's a better candidate than Ron Santo.
   54. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: February 03, 2008 at 01:55 AM (#2682484)
BUT HOOTERS GIRLS!!!!
   55. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: February 21, 2008 at 03:28 AM (#2696234)
If I'm figuring BABIP right, Diaz's is projected to be .386... that seems a bit high.
   56. Chris Dial Posted: February 21, 2008 at 04:14 AM (#2696269)
He's a better candidate than Ron Santo.

Really? Chipper has, IMO, a good chance to be the second best 3B of all time (until DWright passes him).
   57. MM1f Posted: February 21, 2008 at 04:44 AM (#2696283)
"If I'm figuring BABIP right, Diaz's is projected to be .386... that seems a bit high."

I have no idea what Diaz's usual BABIPs look like but on the surface of things I can believe him being a BABIP outliers. He does a really good job of hitting line drives usually and always posted good gap power and BAs in the minors.

As Der-K has mentioned he is one of the few guys SABR heads have anointed a Ken Phelps All Star despite being high-BA low walks.

My opinions on Diaz defense have kind of gone 180 to the consensus. It used to be I thought he was a little better than people said but now people are talking up his D numbers as GG quality but I just can't see that.
Some people who saw him - whose opinions I respect, like Emiegh, agreed with the consensus that he sucked. I was with Der-K in saying that his surprisingly good speed and arm somewhat compensated for his bad breaks and misadventures. I could biased since I liked the guy as a really underrated player (an absolute AAA monster) and as a guy who seemed to be a really nice guy. Plus when I saw him in the minors I saw him in a park with fairly small corner OFs.
Now when I see him on TV with the Braves (granted, you miss lots of things that way) he looks much better but does not look quite as good as some numbers say. Part of my disbelief could stem from my natural skepticism of defensive stats and also the opinion I formed of him as a not-great but not-bad defender when I saw him pre-eye surgery.

So who knows what to make of my opinions of the subject. I think he is a solid LF/RF on D, and I've seen him in AAA and MLB a ton but who knows. He is one of my favorite players though.
   58. MM1f Posted: February 21, 2008 at 04:46 AM (#2696285)
I think it is interesting that Diaz vision problems never seemed to hold down his offense at all. I seems that most Lasik guys get it after having trouble seeing the ball at the plate, esp at night
   59. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 21, 2008 at 07:58 PM (#2696708)
I think it is interesting that Diaz vision problems never seemed to hold down his offense at all. I seems that most Lasik guys get it after having trouble seeing the ball at the plate, esp at night

Most likely, it's just that there's more variation in the location of a ball hit into the outfield than a ball thrown to you when you're at-bat, so his depth perception wasn't as important there as his reflexes and timing - the mind can fill in a lot of the blanks there.
   60. flournoy Posted: February 21, 2008 at 08:20 PM (#2696721)
As far as I know, Diaz isn't a former Lasik patient. He had terrible depth perception, and that was corrected by having him wear a contact lens in one eye. If he had surgery, I'm not aware of it.

His defensive troubles were of the "Come in a little bit... whoops, no, that's over my head... all right, I got this... *SLAM* ... ouch, was that the wall?" variety. He still runs into walls with alarming frequency, and not with Aaron Rowand scrappy gamerness, but with "Has that wall always been there?" cluelessness. He's a lot of fun to watch.
   61. Honkie Kong Posted: March 06, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#2706970)
Which is the polar opposite of KJ in left field. He used to stop 10 ft short of the wall, and look for the wall instead of looking at the ball.
   62. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: March 11, 2008 at 10:54 AM (#2710288)
Chipper has, IMO, a good chance to be the second best 3B of all time (until DWright passes him).

Only passing Wright's going to do is if he manages to join the wait staff during Chipper's induction dinner. "Hey kid, pass me another beer. There's a 10-spot in it for you."
   63. dasfunk Posted: June 02, 2008 at 05:52 PM (#2803087)
[s]oops[/s]

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