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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

2008 ZiPS Projections - Chicago Cubs

It always feels to me like I should be mocking them for something, but there just isn’t a lot for me to complain about.  The Cubs aren’t an elite organization, but I think they’re still the best in the Central and don’t have any gaping holes.  This team wouldn’t compete in the AL East or Central and would need some luck in the AL West, but they don’t have to worry about that.  When I look at the roster, I feel like there are only a few players that Ed Wade would sign for the Astros, which is a Very Good Thing - much is made about teams with ex-Cubs not winning the World Series, but I think the current-Astros curse will be considerably more potent the next couple of years.  Really, the only thing I can whine about is the team just doesn’t like Matt Murton.

No, I will not projection Josh Vitters.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Derrek Lee           1b 32 .300 .382 .517 123 460 76 138 32 1 22 78 57 97 7 3
Aramis Ramirez       3b 30 .292 .354 .531 138 524 78 153 32 3 29 100 46 62 1 1
Kosuke Fukudome*      rf 31 .293 .382 .460 120 457 66 134 33 2 13 67 64 100 1 1
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.282 .359 .489—————————————————————
Alfonso Soriano       lf 32 .286 .336 .527 141 588 97 168 39 2 33 99 39 133 28 9
Matt Murton         lf 26 .289 .360 .465 156 471 71 136 27 1 18 63 51 67 3 0
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.281 .352 .469—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.280 .349 .471—————————————————————
Geovany Soto         c   25 .284 .342 .483 139 458 44 130 29 1 20 73 41 109 0 0
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.277 .346 .457—————————————————————
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.275 .339 .433—————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.279 .340 .422————————————————————-
Micah Hoffpauir*      1b 28 .265 .321 .459 105 370 36 98 22 1 16 61 30 65 2 1
Mark DeRosa         2b 33 .276 .349 .405 125 417 56 115 23 2 9 55 43 83 1 2
Daryle Ward*        1b 33 .263 .342 .413 87 179 21 47 12 0 5 30 21 35 0 1
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.277 .332 .415—————————————————————
Mike Fontenot*        2b 28 .268 .333 .412 144 456 65 122 29 5 9 48 44 86 7 4
Matt Craig#          3b 27 .256 .326 .421 122 399 44 102 26 2 12 52 38 103 3 1
Felix Pie*          cf 23 .269 .321 .429 148 539 71 145 27 7 15 61 40 122 20 9
AVERAGE C———————- c——.263 .324 .412—————————————————————
Josh Kroeger*        rf 25 .257 .307 .439 129 456 49 117 28 2 17 59 31 118 8 4
Jake Fox           c   25 .254 .301 .439 124 465 43 118 30 1 18 64 23 113 5 2
Sam Fuld*          cf 26 .261 .329 .377 114 403 59 105 28 2 5 34 36 62 14 3
Eric Patterson*      2b 25 .264 .318 .406 151 571 73 151 27 6 14 61 44 103 28 11
Steve Clevenger*      1b 22 .281 .321 .362 93 334 36 94 18 0 3 29 20 29 1 1
Ryan Theriot         ss 28 .266 .324 .348 143 492 71 131 25 3 3 42 41 51 25 4
Ronny Cedeno         ss 25 .271 .312 .398 141 462 52 125 20 3 11 48 26 86 9 7
Henry Blanco         c   36 .235 .286 .383 51 149 14 35 8 1 4 20 10 26 0 0
Koyie Hill#          c   29 .237 .292 .351 64 194 17 46 13 0 3 20 15 35 1 1
Casey McGehee         3b 25 .243 .288 .361 140 502 42 122 30 1 9 53 32 95 1 3
Brian Dopirak         1b 24 .233 .278 .370 106 386 26 90 23 0 10 42 22 111 1 1
Tyler Colvin*        cf 22 .236 .267 .380 136 518 50 122 33 3 12 60 18 143 17 9
Nate Spears*        2b 23 .222 .289 .297 130 414 46 92 18 2 3 29 32 80 7 2
Chris Walker         cf 27 .247 .289 .329 100 356 35 88 13 2 4 29 19 82 17 13
Ryan Harvey         rf 23 .210 .239 .365 95 353 28 74 16 0 13 40 12 106 2 1

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Lee               Av            
Ramirez               Av        
Fukudome*                  Vg Av Vg
Soriano                   Vg Av  
Murton                     Av   Fr
Soto           Av   Av            
Hoffpauir*          Av       Fr   Fr
DeRosa               Av Vg Pr Av   Av
Ward*            Fr       Pr   Pr
Fontenot*            Av Av Pr      
Craig#            Av   Pr        
Pie*                      Vg Av Vg
Kroeger*          Fr       Fr   Fr
Fox           Fr   Av       Pr   Pr
Fuld*                    Vg Vg Vg
Patterson*            Fr     Av Av Av
Clevenger*      Fr   Av            
Theriot             Av Av Av Av   Av
Cedeno               Av   Av      
Blanco         Vg   Av            
Hill#          Av                
McGehee         Pr   Av   Fr        
Dopirak           Av            
Colvin*                    Vg Av  
Spears*              Av          
Walker                     Av Fr Av
Harvey                     Vg   Vg    

Player Spotlight - Derrek Lee
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .327 .414 .578 129 483 92 158 41 1 26 94 67 88 10 3 150   3  
Mean         .300 .382 .517 123 460 76 138 32 1 22 78 57 97 7 3 127   0
Pessimistic (15%) .270 .343 .458 111 415 59 112 27 0 17 63 45 97 4 4 102 -2

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Pedro Guerrero, Bob Watson

Player Spotlight - Felix Pie
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%)  .302 .362 .505 160 582 92 176 35 10 21 92 54 112 29 6 119   8  
Mean         .269 .321 .429 148 539 71 145 27 7 15 61 40 122 20 9   89   5  
Pessimistic (15%) .239 .282 .364 130 473 50 113 21 4 10 52 28 116 11 9   63   1

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Corey Patterson, Dave Martinez

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Bobby Howry           34   3.16   7   6 76   0   74.0   65   26   7   17   67
Mike Wuertz           29   3.33   4   3 69   0   73.0   60   27   7   32   84
Carlos Zambrano       27   3.70 14 11 32 32   207.0 177   85 22 100 189
Kerry Wood           31   3.72   2   1 30   0   29.0   23   12   4   14   33
Carlos Marmol         25   3.77   5   3 77   0   86.0   71   36 10   50   93
Scott Eyre*          36   3.81   2   1 67   0   59.0   53   25   6   31   60
Rich Hill*          28   3.88 10   9 31 29   181.0 160   78 27   60 190
Neal Cotts*          28   4.08   2   2 59   0   64.0   58   29   7   35   58
Carmen Pignatiello*    25   4.24   3   3 56   0   70.0   68   33   8   28   57
Ted Lilly*          32   4.24 12 12 31 31   176.0 165   83 25   67 158
Ryan Dempster         31   4.25   5   5 70   0   72.0   68   34   7   34   62
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.36———————————————————————-
Jose Ascanio         23   4.50   3   4 49   3   88.0   91   44   8   39   55
Angel Guzman         26   4.64   3   3 17 12   66.0   67   34   8   28   56
Juan Mateo           24   4.64   6   9 29 23   130.0 134   67 16   45   93
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.78———————————————————————-
Sean Gallagher         22   4.91   6   9 29 24   143.0 144   78 16   79 104
Sean Marshall*        25   4.97   6   8 22 21   116.0 124   64 17   49   75
Jason Marquis         29   5.06   9 14 30 29   176.0 189   99 28   66   96
Les Walrond*          31   5.11   5   8 25 19   118.0 128   67 17   52   77
Billy Petrick         24   5.12   2   2 37   0   51.0   54   29   9   19   34
Wade Miller           31   5.14   2   3 13 13   63.0   67   36   9   32   45
Steve Trachsel         37   5.20   5 10 23 23   128.0 141   74 19   57   62
Adam Harben           24   5.61   3   7 21 17   93.0 103   58 10   61   45
Donald Veal*          23   5.72   6 12 29 28   140.0 141   89 23 110 115
Kevin Hart           26   5.73   5 11 29 25   154.0 168   98 30   69 107
Mark Holliman         24   5.89   6 13 25 24   142.0 160   93 28   73   83
Ryan O’Malley*        28   6.15   4   9 29 19   120.0 146   82 26   40   58
Tim Lahey           26   6.19   3   8 51   0   80.0   92   55 14   43   47
Jeff Samardzija       23   6.27   3   8 21 19   99.0 122   69 20   39   37
Mike Nannini         28   6.90   1   5 35   5   73.0   86   56 21   36   53
Mitchell Atkins       22   7.16   4 14 27 25   137.0 166 109 40   73   82

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Ted Lilly
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.57 16 10 34 34 199 172   79 25   67 188   129
Mean           4.24 12 12 31 31 176 165   83 25   67 158   109
Pessimistic (15%)  5.28   7 12 25 25 138 144   81 25   62 114   87

Top Near-Age Comps:  Floyd Bannister, Howie Pollet

Player Spotlight - Carlos Zambrano
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.04 18   8 34 34 228 179   77 20   97 217   152
Mean           3.70 14 11 32 32 207 177   85 22 100 189   125
Pessimistic (15%)  4.53   9 11 26 26 163 153   82 21   92 137   102

Top Near-Age Comps:  Andy Messersmith, Pete Harnisch

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Nationals

Projections

Blue Jays

Projections

Rangers

Projections

Rays

Projections

Cardinals

Projections

Mariners

Projections

Giants

Projections

Padres

Projections

Pirates

Projections

Phillies

Projections

A’s

Projections

Yankees

Projections

Mets

Projections

Twins

Projections

Brewers

Projections

Dodgers

Projections

Angels

Projections

Royals

Projections

Astros

Projections

Marlins

Projections

Tigers

Projections

Rockies

Projections

Indians

Projections

Reds

Projections

White Sox

Projections

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 09, 2008 at 08:07 PM | 106 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 11, 2008 at 04:57 AM (#2665941)
Is there an age where MLE-MLB projections start to break down.
I've never looked into it, but some people seem to think there is - DTs have age relative to level as a component of the translation.
   102. greenback calls it soccer Posted: January 11, 2008 at 05:45 AM (#2665970)
Constancio found an experience level where MLEs need to be changed. Link.
   103. Frisco Cali Posted: January 11, 2008 at 06:52 AM (#2666001)
At least one of us is being too subtle in his humor.

"Asshat" was your term, not mine.
If I called Dan a "moron", \"############\", or "shithead", then that would be uncalled for. And I wouldn't do that.
But when I simply continued your humorous (I thought, maybe you were being serious) scenario from 5 posts earlier, I don't think my intent is too hard to figure out. Probably not overly skilled, true. But also certainly not subtle.
   104. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 11, 2008 at 03:50 PM (#2666123)
FC,

Walt was saying his joke was too subtle. The poster picked up that you were joking but thought Walt was serious in calling you out.

Or are you being subtle now too?
   105. Walt Davis Posted: January 11, 2008 at 06:50 PM (#2666300)
Indeed, Frisco, I appreciated your joke and saving me the trouble. :-)

I was then trying to humorously take the high road. That's what I get for not using a smiley.
   106. Sweet Posted: January 16, 2008 at 10:33 PM (#2669955)
Hi Dan,

I assume you'll do a TO on the Lieber signing, but if not, could you post his Wrigley Field projection here?

Thanks!
Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2

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