2008 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds
The Reds should be another one of the NL’s huge middle class. That’s always tricky for management because there can be a
tendency to not completely commit to either short or long-term planning and play it safe, taking the mediocre middleway,
resulting in neither goal being pursued effectively. However, the Reds are better off than a team like the Astros as, while
Krivsky hasn’t exactly shown himself to be a genius, he also hasn’t dumped the team’s prospects and depth in an attempt to
focus on a relative weakness - Ed Wade would’ve dumped Cueto or Votto for a middle reliever by now. While the Reds have had
bullpen problems, they charged after value and got probably the best reliever available.
The team has a terrific front 4 of prospects in Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, and Votto, plus some guys that could still pan out like
Drew Stubbs and the surprising Rog…err…Daniel Dorn. There are also several guys that had impressive 1st and 2nd seasons
at very low levels that aren’t listed below but should appear next year, such as Brandon Waring.
Krivsky’s next test will be if he can handle the team’s weaknesses outside of the obvious need for pitching. The Reds play
in a very good hitting environment and the team needs to ignore the talk radio set that think the offense is the best ever
and the pitching is the worst ever. Overall, the 2006 and 2007 Reds combined for a league-average offense (99 OPS+, so a
hair below, but not significantly) and with Dunn very likely to depart and not really a good candidate to age well even if
the team keeps him and Griffey extremely old, they’re going to also have to pay attention to their offense the next few
years.
It was really nice to see Keppinger make the most of his cup of coffee. He’s obviously not as good a player as he was, but
his minor league record said that he deserved to get a chance in the majors. The Reds got a lot of use out of another guy
with a good minor league track record and few opportunities in Ryan Freel. Let’s see if they can do it again - if
Keppinger’s for real, it would be a great time to extract top dollar for Phillips.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Adam Dunn* lf 28 .239 .366 .498 152 524 94 125 26 1 36 103 99 170 5 0
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.277 .357 .480—————————————————————
Edwin Encarnacion 3b 25 .291 .361 .460 141 506 70 147 30 1 18 78 42 87 6 1
Ken Griffey Jr. * rf 38 .272 .346 .480 113 427 62 116 20 0 23 81 50 83 2 0
Joey Votto* 1b 24 .281 .357 .466 151 556 55 156 34 0 23 88 66 135 17 9
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.276 .349 .461—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.275 .346 .463—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.272 .343 .449—————————————————————
Jay Bruce* cf 21 .266 .317 .476 137 523 48 139 42 4 20 73 38 152 12 9
Jeff Keppinger 2b 28 .307 .360 .408 121 449 60 138 23 2 6 48 35 31 3 2
Jorge Cantu 2b 26 .279 .324 .457 130 466 55 130 31 2 16 70 28 84 0 0
Brandon Phillips 2b 27 .271 .325 .435 146 568 87 154 26 2 21 79 39 94 22 6
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.270 .335 .425—————————————————————
Jesse Gutierrez 1b 30 .265 .332 .423 85 279 26 74 18 1 8 39 25 57 0 0
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.275 .336 .414—————————————————————
Daniel Dorn* lf 23 .247 .318 .436 125 470 41 116 27 1 20 72 36 118 3 1
Scott Hatteberg* 1b 38 .261 .348 .374 106 348 42 91 18 0 7 48 44 36 0 0
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.273 .329 .407—————————————————————
Javier Valentin# c 32 .261 .328 .406 85 207 23 54 12 0 6 32 20 29 0 0
Ryan Freel cf 32 .264 .346 .376 108 386 62 102 22 3 5 33 41 70 26 10
AVERAGE C———————c——- .258 .328 .403—————————————————————
Sea Bass Gonzalez ss 31 .257 .317 .417 124 432 57 111 25 1 14 58 33 84 1 1
Mark Bellhorn# 2b 33 .216 .328 .380 103 305 33 66 18 1 10 44 47 106 0 0
Jason Ellison lf 30 .273 .322 .388 115 227 39 62 12 1 4 21 15 38 8 5
Adam Rosales 1b 25 .230 .306 .409 128 486 57 112 31 4 16 58 41 121 13 7
Ryan Hanigan c 27 .252 .332 .350 100 294 32 74 16 2 3 27 33 49 0 1
Chris Dickerson* cf 26 .225 .313 .380 138 476 50 107 19 5 15 52 56 190 23 8
Norris Hopper cf 29 .291 .330 .340 121 382 51 111 12 2 1 30 21 36 12 6
Craig Tatum c 25 .242 .281 .380 108 389 31 94 22 1 10 44 20 103 1 2
Ryan Jorgensen c 29 .218 .284 .356 77 239 24 52 12 0 7 25 22 70 1 0
Dave Ross c 31 .203 .275 .369 70 187 18 38 7 0 8 24 18 59 0 0
Juan Castro ss 36 .235 .280 .365 73 170 16 40 11 1 3 20 10 38 0 1
Paul Janish ss 25 .228 .294 .317 147 539 52 123 26 2 6 46 42 82 10 3
Andy Machado# ss 27 .205 .299 .303 123 347 37 71 12 2 6 29 45 103 7 4
Chris Valaika ss 22 .236 .280 .343 140 543 41 128 26 1 10 58 22 144 1 10
Drew Stubbs cf 23 .223 .301 .335 136 538 64 120 29 2 9 44 56 175 18 23
Marland Williams cf 27 .195 .259 .324 106 333 35 65 13 3 8 32 26 138 19 7
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Dunn* Fr Pr
Encarnacion Av
Griffey* Pr Av
Votto* Av Av
Bruce* Vg Vg
Keppinger Av Av Av Fr Av Av
Cantu Fr Pr
Gutierrez Av
Phillips Av Fr
Dorn* Fr Fr
Hatteberg* Vg
Valentin# Fr Fr
Freel Fr Fr Vg Fr Ex
Gonzalez Av
Bellhorn# Av Av Av Pr
Ellison Av Fr Av
Rosales Av Pr Pr Av Av
Hanigan Fr Av
Dickerson* Av Av Av
Hopper Vg Av Vg
Tatum Fr
Jorgensen Av
Ross Vg
Castro Av Av Pr
Janish Vg Vg Vg
Machado# Av Av Av Av Av
Valaika Fr Fr
Stubbs Vg Vg Vg
Williams Vg Vg Vg
Player Spotlight - Jay Bruce
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS RAR DR+
Optimistic (15%) .297 .355 .540 149 569 62 169 49 7 25 104 49 148 20 10 37 12
Mean .266 .317 .476 137 523 48 139 42 4 20 73 38 152 12 9 11 9
Pessimistic (15%) .239 .283 .416 124 473 37 113 35 2 15 65 29 152 7 8 -7 5
Weighted Mean Value: $6,550,000
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Lloyd Moseby, Oddibe McDowell
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Francisco Cordero 33 3.34 5 2 71 0 70.0 61 26 5 27 80
David Weathers 38 3.84 5 3 63 0 68.0 66 29 8 26 46
Aaron Harang 30 3.87 13 10 33 33 221.0 219 95 26 52 196
Jared Burton 27 4.16 5 4 59 0 67.0 65 31 7 32 54
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.35———————————————————————-
Bronson Arroyo 31 4.36 11 11 32 31 200.0 216 97 25 56 130
Bill Bray* 25 4.42 4 5 49 0 55.0 54 27 7 19 49
Brad Salmon 28 4.62 4 4 57 0 78.0 78 40 9 37 65
Jon Coutlangus* 27 4.64 3 3 63 0 66.0 66 34 7 35 53
Gary Majewski 28 4.68 3 4 74 0 75.0 83 39 7 30 44
Eddie Guardado* 37 4.74 1 2 40 0 38.0 40 20 6 11 32
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.78———————————————————————-
Matt Belisle 28 4.89 5 7 40 15 114.0 131 62 14 30 73
Marcus McBeth 27 4.89 3 3 52 0 57.0 56 31 8 24 50
Homer Bailey 22 4.91 7 9 25 25 132.0 133 72 16 68 105
Todd Coffey 27 4.92 3 4 76 0 75.0 89 41 10 25 50
Johnny Cueto 22 4.97 9 12 29 29 154.0 164 85 24 49 122
Elizardo Ramirez 25 5.11 5 6 20 19 111.0 127 63 17 25 70
Edinson Volquez 24 5.21 10 14 33 33 178.0 188 103 31 77 141
Kirk Saarloos 29 5.23 5 7 37 14 105.0 124 61 13 38 50
Mike Stanton* 41 5.24 3 4 68 0 55.0 64 32 7 21 36
Eric Milton* 32 5.43 4 8 19 19 106.0 122 64 18 29 66
Matthew Maloney* 24 5.45 9 15 28 28 170.0 180 103 28 85 129
Bobby Livingston* 25 5.78 5 11 26 24 151.0 189 97 25 38 72
Tyler Pelland* 24 5.82 4 9 45 15 116.0 126 75 15 76 77
Richie Gardner 26 5.87 4 8 17 17 89.0 104 58 16 29 52
Steve Kelly 28 6.03 4 9 22 16 100.0 121 67 18 39 61
Alexander Smit* 22 6.36 3 8 31 15 99.0 111 70 17 64 71
Daryl Thompson 22 7.04 3 9 18 18 78.0 93 61 12 31 57
Sergio Valenzuela 23 8.52 1 3 34 5 75.0 101 71 21 50 30
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Aaron Harang
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ RAR
Optimistic (15%) 3.14 16 8 34 34 235 213 82 23 44 213 147 65
Mean 3.87 13 10 33 33 221 219 95 26 52 196 120 43
Pessimistic (15%) 4.63 9 10 27 27 175 191 90 24 47 142 100 19
Weighted Mean Value: $14,800,000
Top Near-Age Comps: Mike Mussina, Jack McDowell
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 27, 2007 at 04:23 PM |
56 comment(s)
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1. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: December 27, 2007 at 04:57 PM (#2654342)Dan, the "middle class" comment intrigues me. You've done a great job detailing the AL's power strcture from team projection to team projection (talking about the concept of the "Big 5" and so forth); now that the NL's projections are almost done (great job on all of them from both leagues, by the way), how do you see its caste system shaking out?
Who did they trade Hamilton to?
Given the difference in defense, I'd rather have Phillips.
Texas
That's a pretty dim line for Hatteberg. If the team is intent on using him over Votto then moving Dunn and some of those second basemen might bolster the pitching at little relative cost to the offense.
Hamilton was traded for Edinson Volquez.
Cantu was dumped, but it's his most recent team.
Seems like a 2008 outfield of Hamilton, Bruce, and Griffey (who they are stuck with) could have been pretty good.
Guys like him age badly and pretty early. While Dunn may be comparable in some ways to Jack Cust or a poor man's Ryan Howard, he's generally also had lower line-drive rates and significantly lower BABIPs than the type.
It's kinda unfortunate that Dunn is likely to be actually overrated after he hits the free agent mark, as it could reinforce the opinion of the general public that he's been overrated so far, even though he hasn't been.
So, I guess you'll have to download the next ZiPS build to see a Hamilton update.
I first thought of Greg Pope.
I can't recall a recent Greg Pope sighting (new handle?), but I've seen some vortex and traderdave posts in the last couple months.
I was thinking the same thing, but I'm guessing Phillips' several years of utter suckitude preceding '07 played into it heavily. I suspect he'll maintain more of his value than that projection indicates, but I'll let the number cruncher comment on that further.
Cincy having him was a bit odd, already having Keppinger and Phillips...
The Most Recent Team Rule?
I got burned on that earlier when I brought up Cantu.
Age OPS+
2000 80
2001 98
2002 44
2003 86
2004 64
2005 88
2006 88
2007 105
ZiPS08 90
PMR has him at roughly 10 runs worse total over the last 2 years (and really good in 2005, oddly enough). CHONE has him significantly worse (12 runs below average for 2008). I can't rightly use either of these totals together with my system, simply because I'm fairly certain the creators wouldn't be huge fans of that (I wouldn't ask either as it would put them in an awkward position, especially Chone).
Not only that, but Freel projects to have more GRIT than Hopper.
This is probably more a matter of experience than anything else. Dickerson has the skills to be a good defensive outfielder, but also has a lot to learn about playing CF in the majors (something that he likely will not get much of a chance to do any time soon).
-- MWE
Not sure why. Any defensive projections I have out there, I say use them (or don't use them) as you see fit. I owe every bit of data I put out there to the people who put out Stats and BIS zone rating, and those who work behind the scenes for retrosheet.
I thanked you in my piece (front page). Let me know if I misspoke, or should edit it.
OK, good enough for me! I still can't let you escape without at least a credit for when I incorporate them with my stuff, probably next year.
Sounds good to me. Dan, are you going to make the primer meetup in Baltimore next May? So far it looks like we've got the union guys plus Nieporent in one place. We could probably use another libertarian.
I don't know if that's true. If you believe AROM's defensive projections (which have Encarnacion at -12), then Phillips projects as a clearly superior player overall. Maybe Gonzalez too.
Sounds good to me. Dan, are you going to make the primer meetup in Baltimore next May? So far it looks like we've got the union guys plus Nieporent in one place. We could probably use another libertarian.
Yeah, I'm pretty certain I'll be there, unless it's Memorial Day weekend.
I think Dunn will beat that projection easily. The lad has worked on controlling his weight and he's in his walk year. He is my sleeper NL MVP candidate. If Dunn puts up .280/.440/.620 in 2007 I will be unsurprised. A 50 homer season perhaps.
And then he will leave.
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