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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 27, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

The Reds should be another one of the NL’s huge middle class.  That’s always tricky for management because there can be a

tendency to not completely commit to either short or long-term planning and play it safe, taking the mediocre middleway,

resulting in neither goal being pursued effectively.  However, the Reds are better off than a team like the Astros as, while

Krivsky hasn’t exactly shown himself to be a genius, he also hasn’t dumped the team’s prospects and depth in an attempt to

focus on a relative weakness - Ed Wade would’ve dumped Cueto or Votto for a middle reliever by now.  While the Reds have had

bullpen problems, they charged after value and got probably the best reliever available.

The team has a terrific front 4 of prospects in Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, and Votto, plus some guys that could still pan out like

Drew Stubbs and the surprising Rog…err…Daniel Dorn.  There are also several guys that had impressive 1st and 2nd seasons

at very low levels that aren’t listed below but should appear next year, such as Brandon Waring.

Krivsky’s next test will be if he can handle the team’s weaknesses outside of the obvious need for pitching.  The Reds play

in a very good hitting environment and the team needs to ignore the talk radio set that think the offense is the best ever

and the pitching is the worst ever.  Overall, the 2006 and 2007 Reds combined for a league-average offense (99 OPS+, so a

hair below, but not significantly) and with Dunn very likely to depart and not really a good candidate to age well even if

the team keeps him and Griffey extremely old, they’re going to also have to pay attention to their offense the next few

years.

It was really nice to see Keppinger make the most of his cup of coffee.  He’s obviously not as good a player as he was, but

his minor league record said that he deserved to get a chance in the majors.  The Reds got a lot of use out of another guy

with a good minor league track record and few opportunities in Ryan Freel.  Let’s see if they can do it again - if

Keppinger’s for real, it would be a great time to extract top dollar for Phillips.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Adam Dunn*          lf 28 .239 .366 .498 152 524 94 125 26 1 36 103 99 170 5 0
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.277 .357 .480—————————————————————
Edwin Encarnacion     3b 25 .291 .361 .460 141 506 70 147 30 1 18 78 42 87 6 1
Ken Griffey Jr. *      rf 38 .272 .346 .480 113 427 62 116 20 0 23 81 50 83 2 0
Joey Votto*          1b 24 .281 .357 .466 151 556 55 156 34 0 23 88 66 135 17 9
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.276 .349 .461—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.275 .346 .463—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.272 .343 .449—————————————————————
Jay Bruce*          cf 21 .266 .317 .476 137 523 48 139 42 4 20 73 38 152 12 9
Jeff Keppinger       2b 28 .307 .360 .408 121 449 60 138 23 2 6 48 35 31 3 2
Jorge Cantu         2b 26 .279 .324 .457 130 466 55 130 31 2 16 70 28 84 0 0
Brandon Phillips       2b 27 .271 .325 .435 146 568 87 154 26 2 21 79 39 94 22 6
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.270 .335 .425—————————————————————
Jesse Gutierrez       1b 30 .265 .332 .423 85 279 26 74 18 1 8 39 25 57 0 0
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.275 .336 .414—————————————————————
Daniel Dorn*        lf 23 .247 .318 .436 125 470 41 116 27 1 20 72 36 118 3 1
Scott Hatteberg*      1b 38 .261 .348 .374 106 348 42 91 18 0 7 48 44 36 0 0
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.273 .329 .407—————————————————————
Javier Valentin#      c   32 .261 .328 .406 85 207 23 54 12 0 6 32 20 29 0 0
Ryan Freel           cf 32 .264 .346 .376 108 386 62 102 22 3 5 33 41 70 26 10
AVERAGE C———————c——- .258 .328 .403—————————————————————
Sea Bass Gonzalez     ss 31 .257 .317 .417 124 432 57 111 25 1 14 58 33 84 1 1
Mark Bellhorn#        2b 33 .216 .328 .380 103 305 33 66 18 1 10 44 47 106 0 0
Jason Ellison         lf 30 .273 .322 .388 115 227 39 62 12 1 4 21 15 38 8 5
Adam Rosales         1b 25 .230 .306 .409 128 486 57 112 31 4 16 58 41 121 13 7
Ryan Hanigan         c   27 .252 .332 .350 100 294 32 74 16 2 3 27 33 49 0 1
Chris Dickerson*      cf 26 .225 .313 .380 138 476 50 107 19 5 15 52 56 190 23 8
Norris Hopper         cf 29 .291 .330 .340 121 382 51 111 12 2 1 30 21 36 12 6
Craig Tatum         c   25 .242 .281 .380 108 389 31 94 22 1 10 44 20 103 1 2
Ryan Jorgensen       c   29 .218 .284 .356 77 239 24 52 12 0 7 25 22 70 1 0
Dave Ross           c   31 .203 .275 .369 70 187 18 38 7 0 8 24 18 59 0 0
Juan Castro         ss 36 .235 .280 .365 73 170 16 40 11 1 3 20 10 38 0 1
Paul Janish         ss 25 .228 .294 .317 147 539 52 123 26 2 6 46 42 82 10 3
Andy Machado#        ss 27 .205 .299 .303 123 347 37 71 12 2 6 29 45 103 7 4
Chris Valaika         ss 22 .236 .280 .343 140 543 41 128 26 1 10 58 22 144 1 10
Drew Stubbs         cf 23 .223 .301 .335 136 538 64 120 29 2 9 44 56 175 18 23
Marland Williams       cf 27 .195 .259 .324 106 333 35 65 13 3 8 32 26 138 19 7

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Dunn*            Fr       Pr    
Encarnacion             Av        
Griffey*                    Pr Av
Votto*            Av       Av    
Bruce*                      Vg Vg
Keppinger           Av Av Av Fr Av   Av
Cantu             Fr Pr          
Gutierrez           Av            
Phillips             Av   Fr      
Dorn*                    Fr   Fr
Hatteberg*          Vg            
Valentin#      Fr   Fr            
Freel               Fr Fr   Vg Fr Ex
Gonzalez                 Av      
Bellhorn#          Av Av Av Pr      
Ellison                   Av Fr Av
Rosales           Av   Pr Pr Av   Av
Hanigan         Fr   Av            
Dickerson*                  Av Av Av
Hopper                     Vg Av Vg
Tatum         Fr                
Jorgensen       Av                
Ross           Vg                
Castro               Av Av Pr      
Janish               Vg Vg Vg      
Machado#            Av Av Av Av   Av
Valaika             Fr   Fr      
Stubbs                     Vg Vg Vg
Williams                   Vg Vg Vg

Player Spotlight - Jay Bruce
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RAR   DR+
Optimistic (15%)  .297 .355 .540 149 569 62 169 49 7 25 104 49 148 20 10   37   12
Mean         .266 .317 .476 137 523 48 139 42 4 20 73 38 152 12 9   11   9
Pessimistic (15%) .239 .283 .416 124 473 37 113 35 2 15 65 29 152 7 8   -7   5
Weighted Mean Value:  $6,550,000

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Lloyd Moseby, Oddibe McDowell

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Francisco Cordero       33   3.34   5   2 71   0   70.0   61   26   5   27   80
David Weathers         38   3.84   5   3 63   0   68.0   66   29   8   26   46
Aaron Harang         30   3.87 13 10 33 33   221.0 219   95 26   52 196
Jared Burton         27   4.16   5   4 59   0   67.0   65   31   7   32   54
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.35———————————————————————-
Bronson Arroyo         31   4.36 11 11 32 31   200.0 216   97 25   56 130
Bill Bray*          25   4.42   4   5 49   0   55.0   54   27   7   19   49
Brad Salmon           28   4.62   4   4 57   0   78.0   78   40   9   37   65
Jon Coutlangus*        27   4.64   3   3 63   0   66.0   66   34   7   35   53
Gary Majewski         28   4.68   3   4 74   0   75.0   83   39   7   30   44
Eddie Guardado*        37   4.74   1   2 40   0   38.0   40   20   6   11   32
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.78———————————————————————-
Matt Belisle         28   4.89   5   7 40 15   114.0 131   62 14   30   73
Marcus McBeth         27   4.89   3   3 52   0   57.0   56   31   8   24   50
Homer Bailey         22   4.91   7   9 25 25   132.0 133   72 16   68 105
Todd Coffey           27   4.92   3   4 76   0   75.0   89   41 10   25   50
Johnny Cueto         22   4.97   9 12 29 29   154.0 164   85 24   49 122
Elizardo Ramirez       25   5.11   5   6 20 19   111.0 127   63 17   25   70
Edinson Volquez       24   5.21 10 14 33 33   178.0 188 103 31   77 141
Kirk Saarloos         29   5.23   5   7 37 14   105.0 124   61 13   38   50
Mike Stanton*        41   5.24   3   4 68   0   55.0   64   32   7   21   36
Eric Milton*          32   5.43   4   8 19 19   106.0 122   64 18   29   66
Matthew Maloney*      24   5.45   9 15 28 28   170.0 180 103 28   85 129
Bobby Livingston*      25   5.78   5 11 26 24   151.0 189   97 25   38   72
Tyler Pelland*        24   5.82   4   9 45 15   116.0 126   75 15   76   77
Richie Gardner         26   5.87   4   8 17 17   89.0 104   58 16   29   52
Steve Kelly           28   6.03   4   9 22 16   100.0 121   67 18   39   61
Alexander Smit*        22   6.36   3   8 31 15   99.0 111   70 17   64   71
Daryl Thompson         22   7.04   3   9 18 18   78.0   93   61 12   31   57
Sergio Valenzuela       23   8.52   1   3 34   5   75.0 101   71 21   50   30

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Aaron Harang
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+  RAR  
Optimistic (15%)  3.14 16   8 34 34 235 213   82 23   44 213   147   65
Mean           3.87 13 10 33 33 221 219   95 26   52 196   120   43
Pessimistic (15%)  4.63   9 10 27 27 175 191   90 24   47 142   100   19
Weighted Mean Value:  $14,800,000

Top Near-Age Comps:  Mike Mussina, Jack McDowell

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Nationals

Projections

Blue Jays

Projections

Rangers

Projections

Rays

Projections

Cardinals

Projections

Mariners

Projections

Giants

Projections

Padres

Projections

Pirates

Projections

Phillies

Projections

A’s

Projections

Yankees

Projections

Mets

Projections

Twins

Projections

Brewers

Projections

Dodgers

Projections

Angels

Projections

Royals

Projections

Astros

Projections

Marlins

Projections

Tigers

Projections

Rockies

Projections

Indians

Projections

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:23 PM | 56 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: December 27, 2007 at 05:57 PM (#2654342)
The Reds should be another one of the NL's huge middle class.


Dan, the "middle class" comment intrigues me. You've done a great job detailing the AL's power strcture from team projection to team projection (talking about the concept of the "Big 5" and so forth); now that the NL's projections are almost done (great job on all of them from both leagues, by the way), how do you see its caste system shaking out?
   2. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:04 PM (#2654350)
Dan, unless I'm way wrong, it looks like you've got a line slight worse then Bruce's pessimistic line in the team projection list.

Who did they trade Hamilton to?

Given the difference in defense, I'd rather have Phillips.
   3. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:07 PM (#2654354)
I thought the Reds dumped Cantu to make room for a Rule Fiver?
   4. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:08 PM (#2654355)
Hamilton is a Ranger now, IIRC.
   5. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2654357)
I hope Bruce hits his optimistic, I have his rookie card.
   6. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:10 PM (#2654358)
Who did they trade Hamilton to?

Texas

That's a pretty dim line for Hatteberg. If the team is intent on using him over Votto then moving Dunn and some of those second basemen might bolster the pitching at little relative cost to the offense.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:10 PM (#2654359)
Ack, that's Bruce's 2007 projection. I'll fix it.

Hamilton was traded for Edinson Volquez.

Cantu was dumped, but it's his most recent team.
   8. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:12 PM (#2654360)
Speaking of Cantu, I can't understand why the Reds unloaded him, only to end up turning to Keppinger. Cantu is two years younger, his ZiPS (as a Red) seems to compare favorably with Keppinger.
   9. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:13 PM (#2654362)
Isn't Cantu's D really terrible?
   10. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2654364)
Those home run totals seem pretty low for Bruce's optimistic projection.
   11. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2654366)
Um, nevermind then.
   12. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:18 PM (#2654367)
#9: ZiPS sez it is, at 2B, at least. Looks like Keppinger can play at-least-average defense all over the diamond, too.
   13. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:19 PM (#2654369)
Dan, could you give ZIPs pessimistic and optimistic ratings for Rasmus? If not, could you just give us a general sense of who ZIPs seems to like more and why? Thanks.
   14. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:20 PM (#2654371)
Wow, even at his age, Freel still checks in at EX in RF, and seems to be holding it down in CF and LF.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2654375)
Cantu's bad enough that I could have arguably given him *no* defensive rating at his primary position. In 125 games at 2B (majors and minors) the last 2 years, I have him at -19 runs.
   16. YLT Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:37 PM (#2654391)
Zips says .239/.366/.498 for Dunn? Ouch. That's substantially worse than BIS's .251/.386/.537 and last year's 2008 PECOTA of .267/.398/.581. Why do you think zips is so down on Dunn?
   17. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:40 PM (#2654396)
I couldn't find the TO article on the Hamilton trade. Why did they get rid of him? Is Jay Bruce simply a lock to start at CF in 2008? Wasn't Hamilton good enough to keep around, instead of some of these other spare parts like Hatteberg and Freel?

Seems like a 2008 outfield of Hamilton, Bruce, and Griffey (who they are stuck with) could have been pretty good.
   18. tyler Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:44 PM (#2654402)
I think I missed the Hamilton Zips - can anyone give me a pointer?
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:49 PM (#2654409)
Zips says .239/.366/.498 for Dunn? Ouch. That's substantially worse than BIS's .251/.386/.537 and last year's 2008 PECOTA of .267/.398/.581. Why do you think zips is so down on Dunn?

Guys like him age badly and pretty early. While Dunn may be comparable in some ways to Jack Cust or a poor man's Ryan Howard, he's generally also had lower line-drive rates and significantly lower BABIPs than the type.

It's kinda unfortunate that Dunn is likely to be actually overrated after he hits the free agent mark, as it could reinforce the opinion of the general public that he's been overrated so far, even though he hasn't been.
   20. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 06:51 PM (#2654415)
Well, #18, Hamilton's current team is the Rangers. The projections for that team came out before the Rangers dealt for Hamilton.

So, I guess you'll have to download the next ZiPS build to see a Hamilton update.
   21. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 07:00 PM (#2654428)
As an aside: I wonder who is BTF's "most famous" Reds' fan? I'm thinking of someone comparable to Vlad for the Pirates or Harvey's Wallbangers for the Brewers.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2007 at 07:01 PM (#2654431)
I have Hamilton at 281/349/491, OPS+ of 116, 334 at-bats, significantly smaller than average reliability.
   23. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 27, 2007 at 07:08 PM (#2654437)
Wiki sez the following are Reds fans: charityslave, Dolf Lucky, GGT, Red Menace, The Dirty Frenchman, traderdave, vortex of dissipation.

I first thought of Greg Pope.
   24. tyler Posted: December 27, 2007 at 07:15 PM (#2654443)
Great, thanks Dan.
   25. Hooked on Phoenix Posted: December 27, 2007 at 07:17 PM (#2654450)
Brandon Phillips' line seems awfully pessimistic following his 30/30 campaign, especially since he's entering his Age 27 year. Any explanation for the drop-off?
   26. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 07:20 PM (#2654456)
#23:

I can't recall a recent Greg Pope sighting (new handle?), but I've seen some vortex and traderdave posts in the last couple months.
   27. Spahn Insane Posted: December 27, 2007 at 07:24 PM (#2654463)
Brandon Phillips' line seems awfully pessimistic following his 30/30 campaign, especially since he's entering his Age 27 year. Any explanation for the drop-off?

I was thinking the same thing, but I'm guessing Phillips' several years of utter suckitude preceding '07 played into it heavily. I suspect he'll maintain more of his value than that projection indicates, but I'll let the number cruncher comment on that further.
   28. JPWF13 Posted: December 27, 2007 at 07:41 PM (#2654494)
Cantu's projection: .279/.324/.457 seems awfully optimistic considering how he's played the last 2 years...
Cincy having him was a bit odd, already having Keppinger and Phillips...
   29. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 07:48 PM (#2654510)
#28: Yeah, .280 with decent power. I thought he was going to be the answer for TB at 2B, but I haven't seen his apparently apocalyptic defense.
   30. Ziggy Posted: December 27, 2007 at 09:56 PM (#2654707)
Can I be the least famous reds fan?
   31. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 27, 2007 at 10:26 PM (#2654733)
So Alicia Silverstone is an Angels fan?
   32. Traderdave Posted: December 27, 2007 at 10:43 PM (#2654747)
I thought Ericv Milton's deal was up -- why does he show up in ZIPS?
   33. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 27, 2007 at 10:56 PM (#2654762)
#32:

The Most Recent Team Rule?

I got burned on that earlier when I brought up Cantu.
   34. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2007 at 11:38 PM (#2654784)
Here are Phillips combined translations/MLB numbers by year (OPS+).

Age OPS+
2000 80
2001 98
2002 44
2003 86
2004 64
2005 88
2006 88
2007 105
ZiPS08 90
   35. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 27, 2007 at 11:40 PM (#2654785)
That's not bad considering his age.
   36. Moe Greene Posted: December 27, 2007 at 11:48 PM (#2654795)
Dan, when will the Transaction Oracle weigh in on the Josh Hamilton trade?
   37. Moe Greene Posted: December 27, 2007 at 11:50 PM (#2654797)
I'm surprised to see Encarnacion listed as an average defender. I could be wrong, but I was under the impression that most defensive systems have him as convincingly below average.
   38. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2007 at 11:56 PM (#2654799)
I have Encarnacion at 3 runs worse than average the last 2 years. I'm projecting him at 5 runs worse, which is just above my threshold for FR.

PMR has him at roughly 10 runs worse total over the last 2 years (and really good in 2005, oddly enough). CHONE has him significantly worse (12 runs below average for 2008). I can't rightly use either of these totals together with my system, simply because I'm fairly certain the creators wouldn't be huge fans of that (I wouldn't ask either as it would put them in an awkward position, especially Chone).
   39. *BaseClogger* Posted: December 28, 2007 at 05:19 AM (#2654979)
I can't believe you have Hopper and Freel as better outfielders defensively than Chris Dickerson...
   40. *BaseClogger* Posted: December 28, 2007 at 05:21 AM (#2654982)
I'm dissapointed that you did not project Belisle for closer to 200 innings and 30 starts considering he pitched 177.7 innings over 30 starts last year in his first as a starter. You have him as our third best starter too!
   41. greenback calls it soccer Posted: December 28, 2007 at 06:08 AM (#2655019)
It's funny to me that David Weathers keeps soldiering on while Richard Hidalgo has been out of baseball the past two years.
   42. The Robby Hammock District (Dan Lee) Posted: December 28, 2007 at 11:04 AM (#2655071)
I think the Reds might be better off with Harland Williams in center field than Marland Williams. He probably wouldn't be able to match that ZiPS projection, but he'd be a whole lot funnier.
   43. Moe Greene Posted: December 28, 2007 at 07:27 PM (#2655343)
I can't believe you have Hopper and Freel as better outfielders defensively than Chris Dickerson...

Not only that, but Freel projects to have more GRIT than Hopper.
   44. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 29, 2007 at 06:19 AM (#2656077)
I think the Reds are a definite sleeper in the NL this year. I also think it would be a huge mistake for them to package their prospects for a front line starter like Bedard. If they hang onto their front line prospects, they could be a contender in the NL Central for years.
   45. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 29, 2007 at 06:21 AM (#2656078)
I also still don't get why Dayton Moore traded Ruben Gotay for Jeff Keppinger, then turned around and traded Keppinger for nothing. He also traded Donnie Murphy for cash. Not that any are some great shakes, but they'd all give you a .700- .750 OPS or so with decent defense (except Gotay) at minimum wage.
   46. Runscreated Posted: December 31, 2007 at 01:24 AM (#2657063)
Any chance of Dusty Baker changing his stripes and letting Jay Bruce and Joey Votto play all year. His aversion to rookies made some for lame lineups (see Shawon Dunston, Neifi Perez).
   47. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 31, 2007 at 04:19 AM (#2657140)
I can't believe you have Hopper and Freel as better outfielders defensively than Chris Dickerson...


This is probably more a matter of experience than anything else. Dickerson has the skills to be a good defensive outfielder, but also has a lot to learn about playing CF in the majors (something that he likely will not get much of a chance to do any time soon).

-- MWE
   48. AROM Posted: December 31, 2007 at 06:06 AM (#2657173)
I can't rightly use either of these totals together with my system, simply because I'm fairly certain the creators wouldn't be huge fans of that (I wouldn't ask either as it would put them in an awkward position, especially Chone).


Not sure why. Any defensive projections I have out there, I say use them (or don't use them) as you see fit. I owe every bit of data I put out there to the people who put out Stats and BIS zone rating, and those who work behind the scenes for retrosheet.
   49. Chris Dial Posted: December 31, 2007 at 06:15 AM (#2657176)
AROM, Mike,
I thanked you in my piece (front page). Let me know if I misspoke, or should edit it.
   50. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 31, 2007 at 07:50 AM (#2657196)
Not sure why. Any defensive projections I have out there, I say use them (or don't use them) as you see fit. I owe every bit of data I put out there to the people who put out Stats and BIS zone rating, and those who work behind the scenes for retrosheet.

OK, good enough for me! I still can't let you escape without at least a credit for when I incorporate them with my stuff, probably next year.
   51. Walt Davis Posted: January 01, 2008 at 12:46 AM (#2657726)
Interesting that Encarnacion projects as, by a good margin I suspect, the Reds' best player. I wonder if anyone in the coaching and front office staff in Cincy realize this.
   52. AROM Posted: January 02, 2008 at 04:03 AM (#2658100)
OK, good enough for me! I still can't let you escape without at least a credit for when I incorporate them with my stuff, probably next year.


Sounds good to me. Dan, are you going to make the primer meetup in Baltimore next May? So far it looks like we've got the union guys plus Nieporent in one place. We could probably use another libertarian.
   53. DCW3 Posted: January 02, 2008 at 07:46 AM (#2658142)
Interesting that Encarnacion projects as, by a good margin I suspect, the Reds' best player.

I don't know if that's true. If you believe AROM's defensive projections (which have Encarnacion at -12), then Phillips projects as a clearly superior player overall. Maybe Gonzalez too.
   54. AROM Posted: January 02, 2008 at 03:15 PM (#2658199)
For Encarnacion the STATS zone rating has him at +1, but he's -23 by the BIS zone rating.
   55. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2008 at 03:31 PM (#2658206)

Sounds good to me. Dan, are you going to make the primer meetup in Baltimore next May? So far it looks like we've got the union guys plus Nieporent in one place. We could probably use another libertarian.


Yeah, I'm pretty certain I'll be there, unless it's Memorial Day weekend.
   56. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 02, 2008 at 03:43 PM (#2658211)
I can't find the info to justify the following but Brandon Phillips had a ridiculously fortunate season in 2007. At least offensively. Defensively he is the best the Reds have and it's not close.

I think Dunn will beat that projection easily. The lad has worked on controlling his weight and he's in his walk year. He is my sleeper NL MVP candidate. If Dunn puts up .280/.440/.620 in 2007 I will be unsurprised. A 50 homer season perhaps.

And then he will leave.

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