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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, December 27, 20072008 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati RedsThe Reds should be another one of the NL’s huge middle class. That’s always tricky for management because there can be a tendency to not completely commit to either short or long-term planning and play it safe, taking the mediocre middleway, resulting in neither goal being pursued effectively. However, the Reds are better off than a team like the Astros as, while Krivsky hasn’t exactly shown himself to be a genius, he also hasn’t dumped the team’s prospects and depth in an attempt to focus on a relative weakness - Ed Wade would’ve dumped Cueto or Votto for a middle reliever by now. While the Reds have had bullpen problems, they charged after value and got probably the best reliever available.
The team has a terrific front 4 of prospects in Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, and Votto, plus some guys that could still pan out like Drew Stubbs and the surprising Rog…err…Daniel Dorn. There are also several guys that had impressive 1st and 2nd seasons at very low levels that aren’t listed below but should appear next year, such as Brandon Waring.
Krivsky’s next test will be if he can handle the team’s weaknesses outside of the obvious need for pitching. The Reds play in a very good hitting environment and the team needs to ignore the talk radio set that think the offense is the best ever and the pitching is the worst ever. Overall, the 2006 and 2007 Reds combined for a league-average offense (99 OPS+, so a hair below, but not significantly) and with Dunn very likely to depart and not really a good candidate to age well even if the team keeps him and Griffey extremely old, they’re going to also have to pay attention to their offense the next few years.
It was really nice to see Keppinger make the most of his cup of coffee. He’s obviously not as good a player as he was, but his minor league record said that he deserved to get a chance in the majors. The Reds got a lot of use out of another guy with a good minor league track record and few opportunities in Ryan Freel. Let’s see if they can do it again - if Keppinger’s for real, it would be a great time to extract top dollar for Phillips.
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 27, 2007 at 04:23 PM | 56 comment(s)
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1. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: December 27, 2007 at 04:57 PM (#2654342)Dan, the "middle class" comment intrigues me. You've done a great job detailing the AL's power strcture from team projection to team projection (talking about the concept of the "Big 5" and so forth); now that the NL's projections are almost done (great job on all of them from both leagues, by the way), how do you see its caste system shaking out?
Who did they trade Hamilton to?
Given the difference in defense, I'd rather have Phillips.
Texas
That's a pretty dim line for Hatteberg. If the team is intent on using him over Votto then moving Dunn and some of those second basemen might bolster the pitching at little relative cost to the offense.
Hamilton was traded for Edinson Volquez.
Cantu was dumped, but it's his most recent team.
Seems like a 2008 outfield of Hamilton, Bruce, and Griffey (who they are stuck with) could have been pretty good.
Guys like him age badly and pretty early. While Dunn may be comparable in some ways to Jack Cust or a poor man's Ryan Howard, he's generally also had lower line-drive rates and significantly lower BABIPs than the type.
It's kinda unfortunate that Dunn is likely to be actually overrated after he hits the free agent mark, as it could reinforce the opinion of the general public that he's been overrated so far, even though he hasn't been.
So, I guess you'll have to download the next ZiPS build to see a Hamilton update.
I first thought of Greg Pope.
I can't recall a recent Greg Pope sighting (new handle?), but I've seen some vortex and traderdave posts in the last couple months.
I was thinking the same thing, but I'm guessing Phillips' several years of utter suckitude preceding '07 played into it heavily. I suspect he'll maintain more of his value than that projection indicates, but I'll let the number cruncher comment on that further.
Cincy having him was a bit odd, already having Keppinger and Phillips...
The Most Recent Team Rule?
I got burned on that earlier when I brought up Cantu.
Age OPS+
2000 80
2001 98
2002 44
2003 86
2004 64
2005 88
2006 88
2007 105
ZiPS08 90
PMR has him at roughly 10 runs worse total over the last 2 years (and really good in 2005, oddly enough). CHONE has him significantly worse (12 runs below average for 2008). I can't rightly use either of these totals together with my system, simply because I'm fairly certain the creators wouldn't be huge fans of that (I wouldn't ask either as it would put them in an awkward position, especially Chone).
Not only that, but Freel projects to have more GRIT than Hopper.
This is probably more a matter of experience than anything else. Dickerson has the skills to be a good defensive outfielder, but also has a lot to learn about playing CF in the majors (something that he likely will not get much of a chance to do any time soon).
-- MWE
Not sure why. Any defensive projections I have out there, I say use them (or don't use them) as you see fit. I owe every bit of data I put out there to the people who put out Stats and BIS zone rating, and those who work behind the scenes for retrosheet.
I thanked you in my piece (front page). Let me know if I misspoke, or should edit it.
OK, good enough for me! I still can't let you escape without at least a credit for when I incorporate them with my stuff, probably next year.
Sounds good to me. Dan, are you going to make the primer meetup in Baltimore next May? So far it looks like we've got the union guys plus Nieporent in one place. We could probably use another libertarian.
I don't know if that's true. If you believe AROM's defensive projections (which have Encarnacion at -12), then Phillips projects as a clearly superior player overall. Maybe Gonzalez too.
Sounds good to me. Dan, are you going to make the primer meetup in Baltimore next May? So far it looks like we've got the union guys plus Nieporent in one place. We could probably use another libertarian.
Yeah, I'm pretty certain I'll be there, unless it's Memorial Day weekend.
I think Dunn will beat that projection easily. The lad has worked on controlling his weight and he's in his walk year. He is my sleeper NL MVP candidate. If Dunn puts up .280/.440/.620 in 2007 I will be unsurprised. A 50 homer season perhaps.
And then he will leave.
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