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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, December 21, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

The Indians should be one of the Big 5 again in 2008.  While they didn’t do something big like land Cabrera (which, of

course, would be nice), they’re still a solid team that has a terrific 1-2 punch for the playoffs, possibly the best 1-2 in

baseball unless Liriano quickly gets bad to where he is.  The pitching rotation has a bunch of spares, especially if Jeremy

Sowers can turn things around a bit.  The offense is shallower, but none of their prime contributors are all that old.  I

wouldn’t be suprised if the Indians are a player in the trade deadline this year and trade off a pitcher or two for an

outfielder.  Garko will beat that projection.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Travis Hafner*        dh 31 .276 .389 .508 143 508 87 140 29 1 29 108 88 116 1 1
Grady Sizemore*      cf 25 .287 .376 .491 160 637 122 183 39 8 25 96 78 134 23 8
Victor Martinez#      c   29 .303 .378 .472 146 551 76 167 36 0 19 97 63 73 0 0
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.279 .359 .466—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.277 .366 .447—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.277 .362 .448—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.274 .359 .439—————————————————————
Ryan Garko           1b 27 .273 .350 .448 138 480 61 131 27 0 19 73 42 97 1 2
David Dellucci*      lf 34 .257 .349 .442 82 226 41 58 11 2 9 39 30 56 2 1
Jhonny Peralta       ss 26 .275 .350 .437 147 552 89 152 30 1 19 80 62 141 2 2
Shin-Soo Choo*        lf 25 .281 .347 .421 115 413 60 116 22 3 10 52 41 92 17 7
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.272 .350 .416—————————————————————
Ben Francisco         cf 26 .274 .335 .437 133 492 62 135 32 3 14 62 41 90 18 8
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.276 .351 .405—————————————————————
Casey Blake         3b 34 .261 .333 .422 134 495 69 129 28 2 16 74 47 107 3 3
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.274 .342 .398—————————————————————
Kelly Shoppach       c   28 .245 .316 .442 86 265 39 65 16 0 12 42 26 95 0 0
Michael Aubrey*      1b 26 .263 .310 .442 58 224 22 59 14 1 8 29 12 44 0 0
Trot Nixon*          rf 34 .259 .351 .367 92 297 38 77 17 0 5 41 40 47 0 0
Franklin Gutierrez     rf 25 .268 .332 .422 142 467 72 125 28 1 14 57 43 109 11 7
Jason Michaels       lf 32 .269 .335 .394 101 312 50 84 16 1 7 43 29 58 4 3
AVERAGE C———————- c——.260 .346 .393—————————————————————
Kenny Lofton*        cf 41 .279 .340 .356 98 348 55 97 11 5 2 37 33 32 17 4
Jason Cooper*        lf 27 .231 .310 .414 109 372 50 86 23 3 13 56 40 116 4 3
Asdrubal Cabrera#      ss 22 .258 .322 .384 150 554 82 143 32 4 10 61 50 103 18 8
Brad Snyder*        rf 26 .236 .312 .386 110 373 40 88 19 2 11 45 39 146 11 1
Josh Barfield         2b 25 .269 .305 .395 149 506 69 136 29 4 9 60 25 89 18 5
Wyatt Toregas         c   25 .256 .312 .379 106 348 35 89 22 0 7 40 26 71 3 1
Andy Marte           3b 24 .239 .294 .408 140 497 44 119 31 1 17 66 37 110 0 0
Ryan Goleski         lf 26 .239 .314 .383 122 439 36 105 22 1 13 63 43 132 4 7
Wes Hodges           3b 23 .243 .305 .372 118 465 42 113 22 1 12 56 37 134 0 0
Mike Rouse*          ss 28 .246 .322 .347 109 334 49 82 20 1 4 35 35 74 2 2
Trevor Crowe#        cf 24 .242 .317 .339 137 528 74 128 26 2 7 47 56 98 32 12
Luis Rivas           2b 28 .244 .300 .358 105 360 41 88 16 2 7 38 25 59 9 3
Jamey Carroll         2b 34 .246 .333 .309 106 285 49 70 11 2 1 25 34 48 5 3
Brandon Pinckney       ss 26 .245 .291 .338 107 379 46 93 21 1 4 36 22 52 3 2
Matthew McBride       c   23 .230 .280 .343 109 452 47 104 31 1 6 49 24 61 0 0
Yamid Haad           c   30 .228 .269 .349 62 189 19 43 8 0 5 21 10 42 1 0
Stephen Head*        1b 24 .210 .273 .327 134 501 49 105 29 0 10 57 35 92 3 0
Armando Camacaro       c   27 .212 .261 .345 52 165 15 35 7 0 5 17   9 37 2 0

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Hafner*            Pr            
Sizemore*                    Av  
Martinez#      Fr   Av            
Garko             Av            
Dellucci*                  Fr Pr Fr
Peralta                 Fr      
Choo*                    Av Fr Av
Francisco                   Vg Fr Vg
Blake             Av   Fr       Vg
Shoppach       Vg                
Aubrey*            Av            
Nixon*                        Av
Gutierrez                   Vg Vg Vg
Michaels                   Av   Av
Lofton*                    Av Av  
Cooper*                    Av   Av
Cabrera#            Vg   Av      
Snyder*                    Av Pr Av
Barfield             Av          
Toregas         Vg                
Marte                 Vg        
Goleski                   Av   Av
Hodges                 Fr        
Rouse*              Fr   Fr      
Crowe#                    Vg Vg Vg
Oforthreevas           Pr   Pr      
Carroll             Vg Av Fr      
Pinckney             Av Av Fr      
McBride         Av                
Haad           Av                
Head*            Av            
Camacaro       Vg    


Player Spotlight - Franklin Gutierrez
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .302 .371 .497 156 513 95 155 34 3 20 93 54 109 17 7  
Mean         .268 .332 .422 142 467 72 125 28 1 14 57 43 109 11 7
Pessimistic (15%) .243 .299 .368 115 378 49 92 20 0 9 48 30 95 6 6

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Derek Bell, Junior Felix

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Rafael Betancourt       33   2.86   5   1 58   0   66.0   59   21   6   13   57
Fausto Carmona         24   3.47 19   9 33 33   223.0 222   86 18   56 141
C.C. Sabathia*        27   3.66 16   8 31 31   214.0 223   87 22   37 165
Aaron Fultz*          34   3.95   3   2 59   1   57.0   57   25   5   23   41
Rafael Perez*        26   4.05   4   2 66   0   80.0   80   36 10   30   58
Adam Miller           23   4.25   8   6 23 17   110.0 111   52 12   37   90
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.31———————————————————————-
Tom Mastny           27   4.43   4   4 56   0   69.0   72   34   7   32   55
Jensen Lewis         24   4.44   3   3 70   0   81.0   83   40 11   31   68
Jake Westbrook         30   4.45 11 10 29 29   180.0 198   89 16   57 105
Aaron Laffey*        23   4.55 11 10 32 29   176.0 194   89 16   53   96
Joe Borowski         37   4.57   4   3 64   0   63.0   67   32   7   20   46
Edward Mujica         24   4.57   2   2 46   0   61.0   68   31   8   16   42
Cliff Lee*          29   4.63 11 10 31 29   175.0 187   90 22   56 124
Matt Miller           36   4.66   1   0 30   0   29.0   29   15   4   16   24
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.71———————————————————————-
Masahide Kobayashi     34   4.79   3   4 47   0   47.0   52   25   6   14   30
Jeremy Sowers*        25   4.81   9 10 29 29   174.0 198   93 19   55   83
Juan Lara*          27   4.97   3   4 57   0   67.0   71   37   8   35   49
J.D. Martin           25   4.98   2   2 11 11   47.0   52   26   7   15   31
Scott Lewis*          24   4.98   5   6 26 24   121.0 132   67 18   41   86
Paul Byrd           37   5.00   9 11 28 28   171.0 212   95 24   30   74
Brian Slocum         27   5.01   4   4 18 12   70.0   73   39   9   34   54
Cliff Politte         34   5.06   1   2 32   0   32.0   34   18   5   14   23
Mike Koplove         31   5.06   3   3 56   0   64.0   71   36   8   28   39
Jason Stanford*        31   5.16   3   4 20 13   82.0   91   47 10   34   47
Reid Santos*          25   5.30   3   5 43   7   90.0   97   53 14   42   63
Tony Sipp*          24   5.34   3   4 35 10   86.0   91   51 16   37   66
Sean Smith           24   5.65   7 10 26 24   145.0 166   91 23   63   81
Jake Dittler         25   5.75   5   9 25 17   119.0 147   76 14   55   45
Chuck Lofgren*        22   5.92   8 13 27 27   149.0 166   98 23   90 101
Eric DuBose*          32   6.05   5 10 26 18   113.0 133   76 18   55   67
Nick Pesco           24   6.14   4   7 17 14   88.0 106   60 14   39   44
Scott Elarton         32   6.16   5   9 24 20   114.0 136   78 23   44   50
Jeff Harris           33   6.39   4   7 25 15   100.0 122   71 24   30   53

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Fausto Carmona
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  2.72 20   6 34 34 232 210   70 14   51 168
Mean           3.47 19   9 33 33 223 222   86 18   56 141
Pessimistic (15%)  4.20 14 10 28 28 180 194   84 18   55 103

Top Near-Age Comps:  Storm Davis, Burt Hooton

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Nationals

Projections

Blue Jays

Projections

Rangers

Projections

Rays

Projections

Cardinals

Projections

Mariners

Projections

Giants

Projections

Padres

Projections

Pirates

Projections

Phillies

Projections

A’s

Projections

Yankees

Projections

Mets

Projections

Twins

Projections

Brewers

Projections

Dodgers

Projections

Angels

Projections

Royals

Projections

Astros

Projections

Marlins

Projections

Tigers

Projections

Rockies

Projections

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 21, 2007 at 05:03 PM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:02 PM (#2651644)
Is Choo in the Indians future plans? I don't get why he doesn't get more of a shot.
   2. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:07 PM (#2651647)
Wow, Zips projects that they have an average CFer on their bench. I've never even heard of him. Is Francisco their 5th OFer?

WTF happened to Josh Barfield? He was supposed to be good.
   3. Willie Mayspedester Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:11 PM (#2651654)
Wow Fausto is one devil of a pitcher!
   4. Mike Green Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:31 PM (#2651664)
That is one fine projection for a 22 year old shortstop.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:32 PM (#2651665)
That's a lot of solid rotation candidates - gotta think some trades are in the works to make room for Miller, Laffey? What do they do with Lee? Sowers?
   6. The District Attorney Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:39 PM (#2651669)
Welp, Marte's finished if he puts up that projection.

Byrd on Human GAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Hormone. Perez not looking so hot either. And based on this, they might as well trade Gutierrez as has been discussed some.

OTOH, terrific projection for Miller.

How's Peralta's defense, really? He looks godawful to me, and his reputation is pretty bad so far as I know, but Strat-O-Matic gave him a "3" (average.)
   7. Robert S. Posted: December 21, 2007 at 07:09 PM (#2651698)
How often was Carmona throwing his sinker for called strikes last year? How often was he getting swings and misses on sinkers in the zone?
   8. Tony H. Posted: December 21, 2007 at 07:12 PM (#2651701)
Peralta's defense has been the subject of much debate. After the '06 season the front office said they went back and watched every single ball hit to him and concluded his range was among the worst in the major leagues. It supposedly improved this year, but frankly I didn't think by a whole heck of a lot. His hands seem pretty good to me, and he has a strong, though at times erratic, throwing arm.
   9. Greg Posted: December 21, 2007 at 07:17 PM (#2651706)
Pitch F/X says

822 Sinkers
303 Balls (36.9%)
143 strikes called (17.4%)
51 strikes swinging (6.2%)
147 fouls/foul tips (17.9%)
127 in play for outs (15.5%)
51 Hits (6.2%)

I have no idea how that matches up with other sinkerballers though
   10. Greg Posted: December 21, 2007 at 07:21 PM (#2651709)
Derek Lowe
Balls - 37.6%
Strikes Called - 20.7%
Strikes Swung - 5.9%
Fouls - 14.3%
In Play Outs - 14.1%
Hits - 7.3%
   11. Tony H. Posted: December 21, 2007 at 07:25 PM (#2651714)
It also seemed as if Carmona started getting a lot more swings and misses as the season went along. In April and May he struck out 3.1 and 3.5 batters per nine innings. The rest of the season he had no month in which he struck out less than 6 per inning.

I have no idea if that is indicative of anything.
   12. Russ Posted: December 21, 2007 at 07:26 PM (#2651716)
How is Francisco's defense? I don't understand how a guy like that hasn't been traded yet with Sizemore ahead of him.
   13. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 21, 2007 at 07:32 PM (#2651720)
Rafael Perez should destroy his projection. But maybe I'm biased...
   14. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder Posted: December 21, 2007 at 07:36 PM (#2651724)
Can we ever see last year's ZIPS projections next to this past season's actual numbers or is that too hard to do.
   15. Darren Posted: December 21, 2007 at 09:07 PM (#2651790)
Francisco was available in the rule 5 after 05 or 06, IIRC. He seemed like a good pickup then too. Maybe his defense is really bad.
   16. zempf Posted: December 21, 2007 at 09:09 PM (#2651791)
Is Choo in the Indians future plans? I don't get why he doesn't get more of a shot.


He had some elbow problems that shut him down last year & ended up getting TJ surgery in September, though he's supposed to be back for spring training.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: December 21, 2007 at 11:56 PM (#2651900)
I'm a little surprised Westbrook projects that well -- sure, it's his track record but track record didn't keep the fairly similar Carlos Silva from having horrible projections. (Note, I think that's a reasonably accurate projection for Westbrook, just surprised it looks that good)

Also ZIPS seems to have gone on a bender just before cranking these out because it's clearly blacked out Cliff Lee's 2007. :-)
   18. chris p Posted: December 22, 2007 at 12:20 AM (#2651918)
dan, sizemore only average in center?
   19. Frisco Cali Posted: December 22, 2007 at 12:28 AM (#2651923)
Can we ever see last year's ZIPS projections next to this past season's actual numbers or is that too hard to do.

You don't have them all memorized? Clearly you watch too many actual baseball games.

Assuming Gutierrez hits his ZIPS projection, does his sublime defense make up for his subpar offense?
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 22, 2007 at 12:50 AM (#2651931)
Crispy, I use mostly ZR for defensive evaluations, which had Sizemore on the AV/VG border, but I use PMR when it's close to tilt one way or the other and his numbers there are generally weak. Aging also costs another 0.75 of a run, so I have Sizemore pegged around a +3 to +5 runs, which I still count as AVG (I generally go to VG and FR at 6 runs above and below, EX and PR at 12, using EX extremely rarely for minor leaguers because of the uncertainty).
   21. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 22, 2007 at 01:33 AM (#2651967)
I thought the DMB thresholds were more like 8 and 16...
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 22, 2007 at 02:45 AM (#2652003)
Welp, Marte's finished if he puts up that projection.

ZiPS didn't like Marte last year either; had him at 234/318/420 entering 2007
   23. DosRafaels Posted: December 22, 2007 at 02:47 AM (#2652005)
Wow, Zips projects that they have an average CFer on their bench. I've never even heard of him. Is Francisco their 5th OFer?

Generalissimo Ben Francisco, as Sickels calls him, is probably about a league avg CF defensively. One of his best attributes is that for a RH hitter he crushes righties. Alot of Cleveland fans like myself thought that he should have replaced Trot right about midseason. He's been a little old for his levels, but like Big League Choo he hasn't gotten much of a chance to shine.

On another note, the only thing frustrating about Shapiro right now is that with our depth he hasn't been able to swing a trade for an impact bat in LF or 3B. I like pitching depth as much as the next guy, but we might need another hitter more.
   24. a wider scope of derision Posted: December 22, 2007 at 03:28 AM (#2652021)
...possibly the best 1-2 in baseball unless Liriano quickly gets bad to where he is.


I take it you're not optimistic of a full recovery?
   25. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 22, 2007 at 04:53 AM (#2652060)
I'll take the over on Astrubal
   26. xeifrank Posted: December 22, 2007 at 07:31 AM (#2652086)
Cleveland's three young outfielders... Sizemore, Choo and Gutierrez are the most similiar in terms of 2008 ZIPS projections to the following young outfielders (25 years old and less) from other teams.

Sizemore's closest comp is Rasmus.
Choo's closest comp is Buck
Gutierrez's closest comp is Huffman.

vr, Xei
Author of Dodger Sims blog.
   27. The Robby Hammock District (Dan Lee) Posted: December 23, 2007 at 04:21 PM (#2652637)
First reactions:
There's just no way Cliff Lee matches that projection. I'll take the under on Mike Aubrey's at-bats, and the under on Aaron Fultz's starts.

As for Peralta, I assume what's eventually going to happen is that he moves to third, Droobs moves from second to short, and someone else (Josh Barfield?) plays second base. The question is whether Peralta moves to third before or after Barfield runs out of options.
   28. Russ Posted: December 23, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2652658)
I'll take the under on Mike Aubrey's at-bats


Aubrey will always be in my bad books for not turning out to be a decent major league hitter, so that I could shove the Maholm pick up Littlefield's a-double-s for the rest of eternity. There was no reason to take Maholm over Aubrey or Ian Stewart (or Milledge or Aaron Hill) at the time.
   29. jayjay Posted: December 24, 2007 at 01:31 AM (#2652842)
First reactions: There's just no way Cliff Lee matches that projection.

Why?
   30. xeifrank Posted: December 24, 2007 at 07:43 AM (#2652971)
I'll take the under on Mike Aubrey's at-bats, and the under on Aaron Fultz's starts.


I don't believe ZIPS is in the business of projecting playing time. Look more closely at the rate stats.

vr, Xei
   31. limozeen Posted: December 24, 2007 at 07:51 AM (#2652973)
Dave, would you mind posting a ZiPS for Brian Barton? He wasn't in the Cardinals' projections, and now he isn't here. Thanks, and keep up the good work!
   32. limozeen Posted: December 24, 2007 at 07:52 AM (#2652974)
And of course, I mean Dan. Haha, sorry about that!
   33. The Robby Hammock District (Dan Lee) Posted: December 24, 2007 at 08:08 AM (#2652980)
First reactions: There's just no way Cliff Lee matches that projection.

Why?
I'll just copy and paste what I wrote in the Lee-Bay trade talks thread a few weeks ago:

He's either hurt, not that great, or both.

Lee went through a "dead arm" period shortly after the All-Star break in '04, and had an 8.22 ERA in his last 14 starts that year with 17 home runs allowed in 65.2 IP. The next season, his K/9 fell by about 1.7. In '06, it fell even more and his HR/9 skyrocketed. In '07, his K/9 and HR/9 stayed about the same and his walk rate increased.

Also in '07, he got into a fight with Victor Martinez, which is not something you do if you want to stay popular in the Tribe clubhouse.

I think the guy's damaged goods, be it physically, emotionally, or mentally. He's caught in a vortex of suck, and frankly I think you can stick a fork in him as far as being a good major league starting pitcher. And I think the Indians need to trade him now while he still has value.
   34. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: December 25, 2007 at 03:31 AM (#2653289)
eh, there's only one Big 5, and it's in college basketball.
   35. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 25, 2007 at 06:00 AM (#2653309)
I think the one that surprises me most is Lofgren, although his 2007 was more "good for a 21-year-old in AA" than just flat good.

Seeing all these makes me even more glad the Pirates didn't take that Bay proposal that was floating around at the winter meetings.
   36. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: December 25, 2007 at 08:43 AM (#2653331)
eh, there's only one Big 5, and it's in college basketball.

And in sporting goods. And Hawaiian oligarchies.
   37. "Andruw for HoF" sure died down Posted: December 25, 2007 at 09:57 AM (#2653336)
Wonder what the Dodgers/Indians fans think of the Bradley for Gutierrez trade now - was it worth it?
   38. Harvey Berkman Posted: December 26, 2007 at 12:06 PM (#2653513)
I'll take the under on Lara
   39. jay gibbons Posted: December 27, 2007 at 01:26 PM (#2654177)
do you use stats like gb%, fb%, k%, and bb% to predict pitcher's future era's? (i'm wondering because cc's era was quite similar to his dips, while fausto's dips was far worse, yet fausto has the much better projection)
   40. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: December 28, 2007 at 12:14 AM (#2654809)
Stephen Head - a lefthanded pitcher with his size, lefthandedness, and statistical profile as a collegian would be a good candidate for a position change. I suppose he's got a year or two to get it going.
   41. kwarren Posted: December 30, 2007 at 02:09 PM (#2656797)
Dan, or anybody else who has this information available.

I think you published a conversion factor to estimate the difference in pitcher's ERA wjen moving from the rotation to the bullpen and vice versa. I believe that ZIPS uses it for it's projections when a pitcher is expected to change roles. Meyers etc.

If you have that information could you please provide it again...Thanks
   42. Oklahawg Posted: December 31, 2007 at 03:15 AM (#2657115)
I read somewhere today that Choo would not be ready for spring training. He's out of options, meaning he'll be in extended ST until he can play in the field. This will give Francisco and Michaels more ABs early, or so it appears. I love Francisco, but feel he needs a clear shot at starting 5 times a week to continue development.

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