Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 08, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers

Pretty clearly, the Tigers are one of the AL’s Big 5, but I think they’re probably still 5th, for the simple reason that they’re ill-suited to handle injuries and various other unfortunate happenstances that can arise during the season.  After the Renteria and Cabrera trades, the minor league system becomes quite a bit thinner and they simply don’t have many player now, other than Porcello, that could expect to fetch much during the season.  Obviously, it’s a sacrifice you can make for Cabrera and Willis, but I think that’s kind of a stretch for Renteria, an average SS who’s still living off a defensive reputation earned years ago.

Now, if the starters stay healthy, this looks a lot like a 95-win team to me, but if Bonderman or Rogers go down, there’s nobody you’d really want to plug into the rotation for a contending team - Jurrjens and Miller are gone and Durbin would be hard-pressed to put in an ERA under 5 again.  There’s still a whole winter to address this issue, however, so these concerns could be premature.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Miguel Cabrera       3b 25 .318 .407 .559 162 601 107 191 42 2 33 122 86 105 4 2
Magglio Ordonez       rf 34 .309 .366 .481 125 476 72 147 31 0 17 91 43 64 0 2
Marcus Thames         lf 31 .261 .329 .534 89 283 47 74 15 1 20 62 27 75 1 1
Carlos Guillen#      1b 31 .296 .359 .471 129 476 74 141 28 5 15 78 46 75 10 6
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.279 .358 .466—————————————————————
Gary Sheffield       rf 39 .269 .366 .438 85 320 60 86 12 0 14 65 45 46 8 2
Curtis Granderson*    cf 27 .278 .345 .475 161 608 104 169 31 13 21 87 58 153 14 3
Ryan Raburn         cf 27 .269 .344 .466 139 494 65 133 28 3 21 79 53 118 11 4
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.277 .349 .447—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.277 .346 .448—————————————————————
Placido Polanco       2b 32 .317 .358 .419 122 499 77 158 26 2 7 61 24 26 4 2
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.274 .343 .439—————————————————————
Edgar Renteria       ss 32 .287 .349 .395 136 547 93 157 27 1 10 62 51 85 9 4
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.272 .336 .416—————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.276 .337 .405—————————————————————
Sean Casey*          1b 33 .283 .346 .388 118 410 46 116 25 0 6 55 34 48 0 1
Jason Perry*        rf 27 .250 .328 .431 107 376 49 94 22 2 14 60 36 109 3 2
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.274 .329 .398—————————————————————
Timo Perez*          lf 33 .279 .328 .392 95 319 31 89 19 1 5 39 21 34 5 3
Mike Hessman         3b 30 .214 .305 .446 103 359 37 77 15 1 22 70 43 125 4 4
AVERAGE C———————- c——.260 .321 .393—————————————————————
Jacque Jones*        rf 33 .267 .322 .390 119 415 50 111 19 1 10 54 30 74 5 2
Freddy Guzman#        cf 27 .264 .335 .357 130 485 77 128 21 6 4 34 50 70 38 11
Brandon Inge         3b 31 .246 .319 .400 152 528 69 130 27 3 16 75 50 130 5 4
Jeffrey Larish*      1b 25 .224 .316 .387 138 478 39 107 25 1 17 65 57 125 5 4
Ivan Rodriguez       c   36 .276 .296 .400 113 445 51 123 27 2 8 60 12 77 4 3
Erick Almonte         ss 30 .253 .329 .349 105 372 38 94 19 1 5 41 44 88 7 4
Michael Hollimon#      2b 26 .235 .307 .386 146 531 59 125 32 6 12 59 52 163 15 7
Andres Torres#        cf 30 .248 .312 .373 94 327 39 81 14 6 5 32 28 81 10 6
Tony Giarratano#      ss 25 .250 .308 .341 115 428 47 107 24 3 3 31 33 83 15 5
Vance Wilson         c   35 .245 .296 .377 41 106 13 26 5 0 3 13   5 23 0 1
Neifi Perez#        ss 35 .254 .282 .346 89 272 28 69 14 1 3 27 10 33 2 1
Ramon Santiago#      ss 28 .244 .293 .335 110 349 44 85 16 2 4 33 19 55 9 5
Brent Clevlen         cf 24 .214 .284 .326 132 420 36 90 16 2 9 40 41 153 5 3
Henry Mateo#        2b 31 .231 .293 .311 105 350 42 81 18 2 2 27 27 64 18 9
Matthew Joyce*        rf 23 .213 .274 .342 135 489 43 104 26 2 11 54 39 128 3 6
Kody Kirkland         3b 25 .176 .236 .312 142 493 38 87 24 2 13 48 28 189 8 8

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Cabrera               Fr        
Ordonez                       Av
Thames             Av       Fr   Fr
Guillen#          Av     Fr      
Sheffield           Fr       Pr   Pr
Granderson*                Vg Vg  
Raburn               Fr Fr   Vg Av Av
Polanco             Ex          
Renteria                 Fr      
Casey*            Vg            
Perry*                    Fr Pr Fr
Perez*                    Fr Pr Fr
Hessman           Av   Fr        
Jones*                      Av Vg
Guzman#                    Av Av Av
Inge                 Vg        
Larish*            Av            
Rodriguez       Vg                
Almonte             Fr Fr Fr      
Hollimon#            Av   Fr      
Torres#                    Vg Vg Vg
Giarratano#          Vg Vg Vg      
Wilson         Fr                
The Neifinator#        Av Vg Av      
Santiago#            Av   Av      
Clevlen                   Fr Fr Fr
Mateo#              Fr   Fr Fr Fr  
Joyce*                    Av Pr  
Kirkland               Av        

Player Spotlight - Curtis Granderson
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .297 .374 .534 162 612 121 182 37 15 26 118 70 141 20 0  
Mean         .278 .345 .475 161 608 104 169 31 13 21 87 58 153 14 3
Pessimistic (15%) .256 .314 .429 153 578 85 148 27 11 17 80 47 157 8 4

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Vada Pinson, Lloyd Moseby

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Joel Zumaya           23   3.53   7   3 61   0   74.0   62   29   8   38   73
Todd Jones           40   3.75   4   2 59   0   60.0   62   25   4   15   32
Justin Verlander       25   3.76 15   8 30 30   189.0 182   79 20   53 156
Fernando Rodney       31   3.86   5   3 52   0   56.0   51   24   7   24   53
Bobby Seay*          30   3.94   2   1 51   0   48.0   47   21   4   17   33
Vic Darensbourg*      37   4.02   4   2 48   0   47.0   48   21   4   18   28
Kenny Rogers*        43   4.11   9   6 21 21   127.0 131   58 13   42   61
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.21———————————————————————-
Jason Grilli         31   4.31   4   3 54   0   71.0   72   34   7   28   50
Dontrelle Willis*      26   4.34 14 13 35 35   224.0 241 108 23   77 162
Jeremy Bonderman       25   4.34 12 10 30 30   197.0 205   95 23   51 166
Nate Robertson*        30   4.45 12 11 30 30   186.0 197   92 22   60 116
Clay Rapada*          27   4.50   5   4 60   0   68.0   70   34   6   29   43
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.57———————————————————————-
Tim Byrdak*          34   4.59   2   1 48   0   49.0   46   25   6   27   49
Zach Miner           26   4.76   8   8 42 20   140.0 151   74 14   63   80
Denny Bautista         27   4.91   5   5 40 12   88.0   92   48   7   53   61
Yorman Bazardo         23   5.04   8   9 32 25   159.0 178   89 18   53   69
Jason Karnuth         32   5.05   3   4 50   0   57.0   63   32   7   18   29
Macay McBride*        25   5.19   4   4 66   4   78.0   82   45 10   41   58
Preston Larrison       27   5.29   4   5 33   9   80.0   93   47   8   33   28
Aquilino Lopez         33   5.29   3   5 51   0   68.0   73   40 13   22   55
Ron Chiavacci         30   5.36   5   6 20 13   89.0   99   53 14   32   56
Chad Durbin           30   5.43   5   8 27 19   126.0 144   76 22   44   62
Jordan Tata           26   5.48   5   8 21 19   115.0 130   70 17   45   67
Virgil Vasquez         26   5.62   6 10 25 24   149.0 173   93 29   38   88
Dennis Tankersley       29   5.72   6   9 24 22   129.0 150   82 20   57   69
Francisco Cruceta       26   6.04   6   9 34 21   143.0 160   96 29   63   94
Chris Lambert         25   6.41   5   9 30 19   118.0 138   84 22   57   72
Danny Christensen*      24   6.44   5 10 26 24   144.0 171 103 30   65   91
Kyle Sleeth           26   9.69   2   8 22 14   65.0   88   70 22   49   34

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Jeremy Bonderman (Assuming his arm isn’t shredded)
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.63 16   9 34 34 223 214   90 21   49 200
Mean           4.34 12 10 30 30 197 205   95 23   51 166
Pessimistic (15%)  5.15   9 10 25 25 159 181   91 22   48 122

Top Near-Age Comps:  Oil Can Boyd, Javier Vazquez

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Nationals

Projections

Blue Jays

Projections

Rangers

Projections

Rays

Projections

Cardinals

Projections

Mariners

Projections

Giants

Projections

Padres

Projections

Pirates

Projections

Phillies

Projections

A’s

Projections

Yankees

Projections

Mets

Projections

Twins

Projections

Brewers

Projections

Dodgers

Projections

Angels

Projections

Royals

Projections

Astros

Projections

Marlins

Projections

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2007 at 03:48 PM | 65 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: December 08, 2007 at 06:22 PM (#2638923)
Wouldn't Zach Miner be a potential fill-in starter? And Ryan Raburn should hopefully get a decent amount of at bats with his versatility. If only he could bat left-handed, they wouldn't have "needed" Jones.
   2. ASmitty Posted: December 08, 2007 at 07:43 PM (#2638960)
Oddly enough, Raburn had a pretty extreme platoon split last year. Only it was lefties he couldn't hit and righties he crushed.

Probably won't hold up over time, but I found that interesting.
   3. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 08, 2007 at 07:51 PM (#2638964)
That's a lot of question marks on the pitching staff for a 95-win team, and not much on the farm to help, any more. Poor, poor Tigers.
   4. Silencio Posted: December 08, 2007 at 08:31 PM (#2639001)
That's a lot of question marks on the pitching staff for a 95-win team, and not much on the farm to help, any more. Poor, poor Tigers.

5 guys in the rotation above average is alot of question marks? I think their pitching looks pretty good.
   5. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: December 08, 2007 at 08:31 PM (#2639002)
Boy, that seems pretty pessimistic on CGrand.
   6. ASmitty Posted: December 08, 2007 at 08:49 PM (#2639020)
I think most projection systems will be skeptical of Cowboy Curtis' ability to hit as many triples as he did last year.
   7. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 08, 2007 at 08:56 PM (#2639023)
Vada Pinson? Lloyd Moseby? Even the projection systems are using the complexion-based comparison technique!
   8. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: December 08, 2007 at 09:06 PM (#2639034)
5 guys in the rotation above average is a lot of question marks?


No, 5 guys in the rotation above average is a pipe dream, especially if Cabrera is playing third base. Detroit's projected '08 rotation had a combined ERA of 4.62 in '07.
   9. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 08, 2007 at 09:18 PM (#2639045)
And they had a combined ERA of 3.86 in '06.
   10. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: December 08, 2007 at 09:27 PM (#2639051)
If Verlander throws 180 IP, I'd bet heavily on the over for that K total.

Granderson's projection seems pretty accurate to me. I think his power was for real, but his BABIP forecasts a drop in average, thus in OBP.

Detroit's projected '08 rotation had a combined ERA of 4.62 in '07.

Two of them, maybe three, had years derailed by injuries. Seriously, how many other rotations project with 5 above average starters? How many rotations don't worry about people getting hurt? Zero. I share Dan's concerns about depth, but the frontline talent projects as well as anyone in baseball. Those same five starters put up great 06 numbers too... pitching fluctuates from year to year, but having five starters with the proven ability to throw lots of high quality innings, in a pitcher's park, with an above average defence behind them, backed by what looks to be a scary offence? That's a quandary almost any team would love to be in.

That's a lot of question marks on the pitching staff for a 95-win team, and not much on the farm to help, any more. Poor, poor Tigers.


Porcello is the definition of elite prospect. And as long as teams go along with Bud's idiotic slotting, DD will restock it with more high quality talent soon. Seriously, isn't this why you get high prospects? Either to get good cheap performance or acquire elite players? Should they have held onto them until they molder? We're talking about dealing for a 24 year-old on a HOF trajectory, and a 35 yr old with significant success, not Raul Mondesi or Andy Ashby.

The 06 Marlins had a pretty good pitching staff with Cabrera at 3B, didn't they? I'd rather have Inge there and Miggy in LF, but there is a good argument about accommodating your HOF bat, especially when you want to sign him long-term. He won't be Inge there, but I doubt his D is going to derail the whole season.

I have noticed a lot more Tigers sniping since the Miguel trade... not surprising, but it is kinda fun.

(BTW, I would project DET as the 2nd best team in the AL... and I have a feeling there will be a couple more parts to come).
   11. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 08, 2007 at 09:38 PM (#2639057)
Not to quibble with this strong roster, but when the combined era variance for your projected starting rotation over the last two years is 0.78 (and not in the good direction, either) then that suggests some questions to me, both in terms of injury risk that Dan cited and in the likely quality of innings pitched. Seriously, Willis, Rogers, Bonderman and Robertson scare no one. And as for Porcello, he ain't going to be ready next season. Still a good deal for Dombrowski, of course.
   12. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: December 08, 2007 at 09:40 PM (#2639058)
As a bottom 2-5, how many teams would you put ahead of them in the AL? I count Angels and Red Sox.
   13. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: December 08, 2007 at 09:41 PM (#2639059)
And is 0.78 a large swing? What is the year to year SP average?
   14. greenback likes millwall, they don't care Posted: December 08, 2007 at 09:48 PM (#2639066)
That's a positive projection for Inge. I figured he would be one of the "craters in his 30s" crowd.
   15. ASmitty Posted: December 08, 2007 at 09:52 PM (#2639070)
Seriously, Willis, Rogers, Bonderman and Robertson scare no one.


Rogers, Bonderman, and Robertson were 3/4ths of the postseason rotation that carried the Tigers to the World Series. Scary? Maybe not. Sufficient? Definately.
   16. Silencio Posted: December 08, 2007 at 10:02 PM (#2639072)
If these projections are correct there really seems to be no reason for Jones. Even with the platoon splits you'd probably be fine with some combination of Raburn and Thames against RH pitching next year. But then again the Raburn and Thames projections seem high.
   17. Dolf Lucky Posted: December 08, 2007 at 10:08 PM (#2639078)
Free Marcus Thames.
   18. 1k5v3L Posted: December 08, 2007 at 10:09 PM (#2639079)
Scary? Maybe not. Sufficient? Definately.


Or defiantly sufficient?
   19. bibigon Posted: December 08, 2007 at 10:32 PM (#2639100)
ZiPS differs pretty heavily from PECOTA on Cabrera.

.304/.381/.523 for PECOTA, as opposed to .318/.407/.559 here.
   20. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 08, 2007 at 10:43 PM (#2639106)
PECOTA knocked down Cabrera's projection by 60-65 OPS points because of the league switch. Silver tends to think the difference between the leagues is about 10 wins which I find quite large but that might be the reason for the discrepancy. Either way, I hope how one player does won't be used as evidence either way.
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2007 at 11:26 PM (#2639133)
I use league differences too, but I'm conservative about applying them and regress them moderately towards even.
   22. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: December 08, 2007 at 11:57 PM (#2639141)
Guillen suddenly goes from very good to league average. Tis a shame.
   23. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: December 09, 2007 at 12:16 AM (#2639144)
Sure, triples are fluky. Still that projection suggests CGrand's XBH drop by 23%. Some of those triples will become outs this year. And some will become HRs and doubles. Either way, I can't see his power dropping by that much.
   24. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 09, 2007 at 02:59 AM (#2639182)
Rogers, Bonderman, and Robertson were 3/4ths of the postseason rotation that carried the Tigers to the World Series.


By that logic, David Eckstein is a championship-caliber shortstop twice over, right?
   25. Ennder Posted: December 09, 2007 at 03:25 AM (#2639194)
304/.381/.523 for PECOTA, as opposed to .318/.407/.559 here.


The difference in AVG shows up in SLG and in OBP so the majority of the difference in those lines is PECOTA doesn't like him hitting as high. If you adjust the PECOTA line to a .318 AVG those are pretty even projections.
   26. ASmitty Posted: December 09, 2007 at 04:57 AM (#2639214)
By that logic, David Eckstein is a championship-caliber shortstop twice over, right?


No, he was 1/9th of that offense, so you're distorting the argument. It's not even close to the same thing as saying that Robertson, Rogers, and Bonderman aren't good enough to be the 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 starters on a team when those exact guys, compromising 75% of the postseason rotation and 60% of the regular season rotation, got the job done in 2006.

I'm not saying the Tigers will have the best rotation in baseball, I'm just saying they have a rotation that's more than good enough to compete. You don't have to scare people to win, you just need togive your team a chance to win.
   27. Zac Schmitt Posted: December 09, 2007 at 07:58 AM (#2639284)
I'm not saying the Tigers will have the best rotation in baseball, I'm just saying they have a rotation that's more than good enough to compete. You don't have to scare people to win, you just need togive your team a chance to win.


i really don't think anyone is disagreeing with you or walewander here. i think the question that's being asked (and i hope i don't misrepresent anyone) is whether you'd prefer have those five guys and basically no backup options are better than having one, two, or three guys at or near that quality and a lot of options in the minors or elsewhere within the organization, as other teams do. i think the crux of the argument against the tigers' rotation is that those guys, although all solid to very good, aren't great enough that it's worth taking over the depth other pitching staffs offer.
   28. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 09, 2007 at 08:23 AM (#2639290)
What kind of backup options do you want? They still have the guy who was their fifth starter in 2006 (Miner) and in 2007 (Durbin).

Sure, they've traded away Miller and Jurrjens (and Ledezma), but that's trading from depth. They still have Bazardo and Jordan Tata. They've just developed a lot of young starting pitchers all at once.
   29. I Am Not a Number Posted: December 09, 2007 at 02:24 PM (#2639342)
Once Cabrera was acquired, some were suggesting that Detroit had become a 1000-run team. Given all the regressions you are proposing, all of which make sense, I just don't see it. Still a very strong team, to be sure, but one that may not meet its now wild expectations.
   30. a wider scope of derision Posted: December 09, 2007 at 04:59 PM (#2639383)
i think the crux of the argument against the tigers' rotation is that those guys, although all solid to very good, aren't great enough that it's worth taking over the depth other pitching staffs offer.


Angels, yes. Probably Toronto. (But the Tigers' offense looks a lot better than Anaheim's or Toronto's.) Boston, too.

But New York?
   31. ASmitty Posted: December 09, 2007 at 05:22 PM (#2639395)
What kind of backup options do you want? They still have the guy who was their fifth starter in 2006 (Miner) and in 2007 (Durbin).


This was more or less what I was getting at. The last two seasons the Tigers really haven't had a fifth starter and now that they've added Willis, they do. Their old fifth starters move to the pen or AAA and serve as emergency starters.

I just don't see how they have *less* depth than they have had the last two years pitching-wise. I can see the argument that they aren't particularly deep, but not the argument that they're any less so than in '06 or '07.

The Tigers organization isn't deep in prospects, but the last few years they've shown they're deep in "AAAA" type replacements, which as often as not perform as well as legitimate prospects who are still a few years away from being ready for the big leagues.
   32. Walt Davis Posted: December 09, 2007 at 08:04 PM (#2639498)
On Granderson, the primary question is his K-rate. Through 06, he K'd at 1 per 3.5 AB; in 07, he K'd 1 per 4.3 which is a pretty big deal. ZIPS has (knowingly?) projected him to a K-rate of about 1 per 4 which seems reasonable. ZIPS has also regressed his BA on-contact which is also reasonable (it was 393 last year, ZIPS has it at 371 which is below his career and possibly "over-regressed" a smidgen).

But I suppose it is a little odd that, based on the same number of AB, ZIPS has docked Granderson 15 hits with 19 of those 15 hits being xbh. :-)

Now here's a factoid -- Granderson has more career triples than steals. That's got to be extremely rare (for anybody who hits a reasonable number of triples at least).
   33. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: December 09, 2007 at 08:09 PM (#2639501)
Yes, I have no objection to ZiPS projection on the BABIP, BA, K rate, or OBP. It's the XBH and subsequent SLG that seems pessimistic to me.
   34. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: December 10, 2007 at 12:34 AM (#2639640)
Detroit Tigers: 2008 and 2009 World Series Champions.

I'm smellin' dynasty, baby.
   35. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: December 10, 2007 at 01:23 AM (#2639659)
Dan, remind how ZiPS handles platoon splits. In Granderson's case, he's either going to learn to hit lefties, or he's going to continue to have his playing time (and rate stats) biased towards his splits against RHP, because he's platooned or because he bats first versus RHP and much later versus LHP. Either way, unless Dan's ZiPS projection takes that into account, it might be misleading.
   36. kwarren Posted: December 10, 2007 at 02:58 AM (#2639697)
Detroit Tigers: 2008 and 2009 World Series Champions.

I'm smellin' dynasty, baby.


Wait until you get a taste of what Willis and Bonderman will be serving up this year. Gotta hope that offense can carry the load.
   37. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 10, 2007 at 03:09 AM (#2639703)
Dan, remind how ZiPS handles platoon splits. In Granderson's case, he's either going to learn to hit lefties, or he's going to continue to have his playing time (and rate stats) biased towards his splits against RHP, because he's platooned or because he bats first versus RHP and much later versus LHP. Either way, unless Dan's ZiPS projection takes that into account, it might be misleading.

It doesn't, actually. I'm not sure if any really do that - it's kinda frustrating because generic platoon splits predict future platoon splits far better than actual platoon splits do. So I just assume past usage and work from there.
   38. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 10, 2007 at 05:05 AM (#2639769)

5 guys in the rotation above average is alot of question marks? I think their pitching looks pretty good.


The rotation does, but I think their bullpen has question marks, especially with Zumaya out.

9.69 ERA for Sleeth? I had no idea ZIPs went that high.
   39. tiger337 Posted: December 10, 2007 at 05:12 AM (#2639773)
Walewander, I've noticed a lot of sniping since the Cabrera trade too and I like it! In 2006, they were a nice story. In 2008, they are a high payroll team that other fans will root against. It's going to be a fun season.

The projections seem pretty reasonable to me. I would never bet against Granderson being for real though. He has exceeded his expectations all the way up the ladder. I do expect drop offs for Ordonez and Polanco so that is no surprise. If the Tigers can match the ERAs and innings pitched totals of the projections, they should be in good shape.
   40. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 10, 2007 at 01:04 PM (#2639853)
Sleeth is the current record-holder for ZiPS, the record previously being 9.42 by Chad Bentz. That's kind of skewed, however, as I don't do every player and no doubt that there are guys in low-A and lower that would be killed just as badly.
   41. The Essex Snead Posted: December 10, 2007 at 04:03 PM (#2639961)
The rotation does, but I think their bullpen has question marks, especially with Zumaya out.

However, now that Rock Band's out, he can sing & not risk exacerbating his injury while on rehab. Just keep him away from the drums.
   42. AROM Posted: December 10, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2639992)
By that logic, David Eckstein is a championship-caliber shortstop twice over, right?


Of course he was. I don't see what you're getting at. Eckstein has been a damn good player.

AS for championship team SS in recent memory, he's better than Lugo, Uribe, Cabrera (at least better in 2002/2005 than Cabrera was in 2004), Sea Bass, and Womack.

Last championship shortstop better than the Eck was Derek Jeter.
   43. kwarren Posted: December 11, 2007 at 01:32 AM (#2640816)
How many rotations don't worry about people getting hurt? Zero.

Unfortunately, Bonderman and Willis are already hurt, and the Tigers are apparently going to throw them out there anyways. This could have a huge negative impact on both of their careers.
   44. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 11, 2007 at 01:43 AM (#2640830)
Sleeth is the current record-holder for ZiPS, the record previously being 9.42 by Chad Bentz. That's kind of skewed, however, as I don't do every player and no doubt that there are guys in low-A and lower that would be killed just as badly.

Did you do a ZiPs for Jason Neighborgall this year? I want to see quadruple-digit walks.
   45. kwarren Posted: December 11, 2007 at 01:47 AM (#2640837)
5 guys in the rotation above average is alot of question marks? I think their pitching looks pretty good.

Let's not get too carried away with this rotation just yet.

Three year trends for Willis.

Hits allowed......213, 234, 241

Home runs allowed.....11, 21, 29

BB allowed......55, 83, 87

K's......170, 160, 146

The cause of all this. He was overworked at too young an age.

197 IP at age 22, 236 IP at age 23, 224 IP at age 24.....this is sick.
Even worse than the abuse Mulder, Hudson, and Zito endured.


And then there is the Bonderman situation

Bonderman threw 234 innings (including post-season) in 2006 at age 23.
This is far too many for somebody at that age, especially for a guy
who's previous high was 189 IP.

The negative impact of this was very apparent in 07. His K-rate
dropped by 12%, and his HR-rate increased by 57%. His ERA trend from
May to Sept in 07 is as follows - 2.66, 4.99, 5.31, 6.05, 12.15. Not
too promising.

And Rogers is 43. Nuff said.

The Tigers have a great offense, but the rotation could be very
disappointing.

Ken
   46. ASmitty Posted: December 11, 2007 at 02:15 AM (#2640863)
Willis declined badly last year, but the whole "three year trend" thing, to me, is cherry picking.

Of course Willis declined in '06, who *wouldn't* decline fron that '05? His '06 was perfectly fine and better than his '04, I feel like you shouldn't penalize a guy for having a great year.

I'm not saying he'll be above average net year, I'm just saying the notion that "well he's declined two years straight" is a litle unfair.
   47. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 11, 2007 at 02:30 AM (#2640872)
Poor Kody Kirkland. A few years ago, it looked like he might be something, but now he'll be lucky to end up with Craig Brazell's career.
   48. kwarren Posted: December 11, 2007 at 02:42 AM (#2640881)
Willis declined badly last year, but the whole "three year trend" thing, to me, is cherry picking.

Of course Willis declined in '06, who *wouldn't* decline fron that '05? His '06 was perfectly fine and better than his '04, I feel like you shouldn't penalize a guy for having a great year.

I'm not saying he'll be above average net year, I'm just saying the notion that "well he's declined two years straight" is a litle unfair.



Of course it's cherry picking. When you want to make a point you tend to use evidence that illustrates it. However any evidence to suggest that Willis is fine, and will have a successful 08 season is skimpy at best. Don't forget that he is moving to a much tougher league. Take a look at Beckett's, Pavano's, Clement's, Vazquez's, Batista's, Horacio RAmirez's, Chan Ho Park's first AL seasons. Not pretty.

Based on his performance as a pro there was really no reason, other then workload abuse, to think that he couldn't maintain the 05 level. Until he was over-worked he was consistently superb at all levels and in every season. Just to refresh your memory his minor league ERA(s) were 2.98, 1.83, 1.80, and 1.49. And this was at 19-21 years of age. He had/has the stuff to be a Jake Peavy. To say that he "had to" decline after his 05 season, is actually pretty ridiculous. The best pitchers do maintain that level, and Willis was one great pitcher at that point. There was no real reason to expect any kind of a decline. Were you predicting one? If so, why? At least part of the reason he declined in 06 was workload related. And his 07 season was an absolute disaster, where his skill level would not even have been good for AAA.

If you don't think that he'll be above average next season, you are basically agreeing with me, while saying that you disagree. You say my method is "unfair", and yet you draw the same conclusion. Interesting.
   49. a wider scope of derision Posted: December 11, 2007 at 03:09 AM (#2640905)
I love this new hatred for the Tigers... It's like 1908 all over again!
   50. DCA Posted: December 11, 2007 at 03:17 AM (#2640908)
Of course it's cherry picking. When you want to make a point you tend to use evidence that illustrates it.

But when you want to make a good point, you present all the evidence, and then you explain what it means.
   51. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 11, 2007 at 03:18 AM (#2640910)
Willis should be in the NL. He's a tremendous hitter for a pitcher and that makes him more of an asset to a team. A .639 OPS in a tough park is very impressive.
   52. AROM Posted: December 11, 2007 at 03:55 AM (#2640929)
If Willis was on the Blue Jays could they bat him and DH for John McDonald? Or is there some rule against that?
   53. kwarren Posted: December 11, 2007 at 04:33 AM (#2640955)
But when you want to make a good point, you present all the evidence, and then you explain what it means.

OK - here is all the evidence that indicates that Willis in not "damaged goods" and that he will pitch well in 08.

- he managed to finish the season on the active roster (probably a strategic decision by the Marlins to make him more tradeable)

- he is only 25

- he has good intangibles

- the Marlins screwed around with his mechanics. the Tigers will let him pitch the way he wants.

- he will be more motivated in a pennant race

- Sheffield & Magglio will get him on the "cream" to build up his strength

- AL hitters will not be comfortable facing his unorthodox delivery

- Pudge (who also knows a bit about PED) knows how to handle pitchers better than Olivio

- Granderson will be in centre field

- Leyland is better at handling pitchers than his Florida counterparts

- less hot weather to deal with in Detroit


There you have it. The opposing viewpoint. Willis will likely get his ERA back to 3.50.
   54. strummer Posted: December 11, 2007 at 08:31 PM (#2641617)
Willis will likely get his ERA back to 3.50.

Whew. I'm glad that is decided; I was getting worried there for a while.

Go Tigers!
   55. AlexIsADirtySanchez Posted: December 14, 2007 at 05:16 AM (#2645279)
Dan, I am interested in the Rule 5s. I would love to see some of the picks compared to available players on the farms. Any chance you could look at those?
   56. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 14, 2007 at 05:44 AM (#2645296)
By that logic, David Eckstein is a championship-caliber shortstop twice over, right?


Of course he was. I don't see what you're getting at. Eckstein has been a damn good player.


Point I was making is that when a team wins it tells us very little about any given player on that team, beyong the fact that they're at least serviceable, like Eckstein.
   57. scoresheetwiz Posted: December 30, 2007 at 02:38 AM (#2656648)
That's a lot of question marks on the pitching staff for a 95-win team, and not much on the farm to help, any more.


It seems lately the Tigers have had a way of producing adequate fill-in pitching out of nowhere. I am more worried about their not coming up with any dominant relief pitching.
   58. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 04, 2008 at 07:13 PM (#2660239)
It doesn't, actually. I'm not sure if any really do that - it's kinda frustrating because generic platoon splits predict future platoon splits far better than actual platoon splits do. So I just assume past usage and work from there.


While I buy that for the majority of players generic platoon splits predict best, I would bet that for a subset of left-handed hitters actual platoon splits, appropriately regressed to the mean, would predict better. It'd be interesting to see some research on that.
   59. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 04, 2008 at 09:41 PM (#2660437)
I should note I also have a policy about doubling the word for minimal gain!
   60. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 05, 2008 at 10:26 PM (#2661192)
I can understand trying to focus on the best bang for the buck, but maybe this could put you over the top in next year's projection assessments!
   61. Famous Original Joe C Posted: January 10, 2008 at 06:03 PM (#2665494)
Detroit Tigers: 2008 and 2009 World Series Champions.

I'm smellin' dynasty, baby.


The fifth best team in the AL? Good luck with that.
   62. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: January 15, 2008 at 10:14 AM (#2668551)
i just wanted to point out that Miguel Cabrera was rated fair by Syzm at 3b.

i'd posit the system for that might need a touch of retuning.

unless Fr means Freaking Terrible.
   63. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2008 at 03:17 PM (#2668588)
i just wanted to point out that Miguel Cabrera was rated fair by Syzm at 3b.

i'd posit the system for that might need a touch of retuning.


My cutoff for guys who I have solid stats for is -12 runs.

I have Cabrera projected at -11. Chone has him at -10. The last 2 years, I have him at -11. The last 2 years, Pinto had him at a total of 24 plays below average, which is less than 24 runs.

He's on the cusp, but he's clearly not quite at PR yet.
   64. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 15, 2008 at 03:24 PM (#2668594)
"There you have it. The opposing viewpoint."

You forgot the bit about the Marlins having a horrible, horrible infield defense.
   65. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2008 at 03:27 PM (#2668598)
The last 2 years, I have him at -11.

That's per, not total.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
BarrysLazyBoy
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.7010 seconds
47 querie(s) executed