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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

2008 ZIPS Projections - Florida Marlins

While the pitching was pretty ugly this past season, a sizable chunk of that was due to what is a pretty bad defense, with Ramirez, Uggla, and Willingham being pretty bottom of the barrel, and Cabrera and Jacobs not much better.  It’s hard to tell, however, if this is going to be a long-term issue because with the Marlins still being unwilling to invest in their team until such time they get a welfare stadium, the team might start getting antsy as these players hit their arbitration years.

The team is still very much in flux as neither Cabrera nor Willis strike me as terribly long for Florida.  The best thing they can do is get some offensive prospects that can field their positions (the team is far deeper in pitching than hitting prospects), see if they can flip Uggla, and explore moving Ramirez to an easier position.  And until such time that they do any of this, they probably should shy away from ground-ball pitchers.  I think Brandon Webb or Derek Lowe would have a nervous breakdown by the end of May in front of these infielders, not that there’s any danger of either of them becoming a Marlin.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Miguel Cabrera       3b 25 .324 .418 .577 162 601 107 195 46 2 34 121 92 116 4 2
Hanley Ramirez       ss 24 .306 .369 .516 160 653 126 200 48 7 25 91 62 110 46 13
Josh Willingham       lf 29 .266 .360 .469 144 493 70 131 30 2 22 76 62 121 4 1
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.272 .354 .461—————————————————————
Val Pascucci         1b 29 .239 .350 .458 137 456 65 109 26 1 24 78 70 154 8 3
Jeremy Hermida*      rf 24 .271 .351 .447 132 443 54 120 28 1 16 60 52 110 3 3
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.271 .346 .442—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.270 .343 .443—————————————————————
Mike Jacobs*        1b 27 .266 .324 .467 143 507 66 135 35 2 21 76 43 118 2 1
Dan Uggla           2b 28 .260 .332 .462 161 639 112 166 37 4 28 97 62 152 4 3
Cody Ross           rf 27 .255 .330 .457 115 326 49 83 19 1 15 48 33 88 2 1
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.268 .340 .434—————————————————————
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.265 .332 .411—————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.270 .333 .400—————————————————————
Joe Borchard#        rf 29 .247 .334 .397 107 287 37 71 13 0 10 40 34 104 2 3
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.268 .326 .393—————————————————————
Todd Linden#        lf 28 .249 .330 .382 131 385 56 96 20 2 9 44 44 121 6 1
AVERAGE C———————- c——.255 .318 .390—————————————————————
Aaron Boone         3b 35 .249 .333 .363 65 201 27 50 11 0 4 29 18 41 1 1
Gaby Sanchez         1b 24 .245 .327 .382 124 440 60 108 31 1 9 49 48 86 5 6
Scott Seabol         3b 33 .235 .297 .386 96 319 35 75 16 1 10 46 27 87 1 2
John Gall           lf 30 .248 .309 .362 87 290 35 72 15 0 6 40 22 51 3 2
John Baker*          c   27 .237 .304 .360 108 350 39 83 23 1 6 37 31 100 2 0
Chase Lambin#        ss 28 .235 .305 .369 119 417 44 98 22 2 10 49 38 120 3 4
Chris Coghlan*        2b 23 .239 .302 .358 128 511 55 122 31 3 8 58 43 94 18 7
Matt Treanor         c   32 .235 .324 .302 68 179 15 42 6 0 2 16 20 38 0 0
Alfredo Amezaga#      cf 30 .254 .316 .336 98 268 31 68 8 4 2 23 23 39 9 7
Eric Riggs#          2b 31 .235 .301 .341 89 302 25 71 15 1 5 35 24 63 2 2
Miguel Olivo         c   28 .238 .270 .390 117 403 44 96 18 2 13 55 14 110 4 2
Alejandro de Aza*      cf 24 .251 .303 .351 71 231 30 58 13 2 2 17 16 54 10 6
Jai Miller           cf 23 .227 .300 .339 132 419 37 95 21 1 8 40 40 153 12 7
Brett Carroll         rf 25 .219 .275 .366 152 511 44 112 27 3 14 58 29 144 3 5
Eric Reed*          cf 27 .243 .282 .308 109 341 47 83 11 4 1 24 16 93 20 7
Jason Wood           1b 38 .231 .285 .308 88 221 23 51 8 0 3 29 15 66 0 1
Paul Hoover         c   32 .216 .275 .299 67 204 17 44 11 0 2 19 16 62 1 1
Robert Andino         ss 24 .223 .263 .298 151 601 56 134 20 5 5 42 31 163 15 11

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Cabrera               Fr        
Ramirez                 Pr      
Willingham       Pr           Pr    
Pascucci           Av       Fr    
Hermida*                  Vg Fr Av
Jacobs*            Fr            
Uggla               Pr          
Ross                     Vg Fr Vg
Super Joe#                  Fr Fr Av
Linden#                    Av Pr Av
Boone             Av   Pr        
Sanchez         Fr   Av   Pr        
Seabol             Av Fr Fr        
Who is John Gall?    Fr       Fr    
Baker*        Fr                
Lambin#              Fr Av Fr Fr   Fr
Coghlan*            Av Av        
Treanor         Fr                
Amezaga#          Av Fr Fr Av Av Av  
Riggs#            Av Pr Av Pr      
Olivo         Vg   Av            
de Aza*                    Vg Av Vg
Miller                     Vg Vg  
Carroll                   Av Vg Vg
Reed*                    Vg Vg Vg
Wood             Av   Fr        
Hoover         Vg                
Andino               Vg   Av      

Player Spotlight - Miguel Cabrera
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .338 .437 .602 162 601 116 203 47 2 36 130 100 111 6 1  
Mean         .324 .418 .577 162 601 107 195 46 2 34 121 92 116 4 2
Pessimistic (15%) .290 .368 .471 127 469 66 136 28 0 19 77 57 103 2 2

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jim Ray Hart, Ron Santo

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Henry Owens           29   3.21   3   2 35   0   42.0   37   15   3   17   42
Justin Miller         30   3.49   3   1 47   0   49.0   43   19   5   19   59
Kevin Gregg           30   3.67   3   3 59   0   76.0   69   31   8   30   81
Lee Gardner           33   3.75   5   4 63   0   72.0   75   30   6   21   49
Matthew Lindstrom       28   3.84   4   3 63   0   68.0   67   29   5   24   60
Renyel Pinto*        25   3.91   4   3 71   0   76.0   67   33   8   41   79
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.07———————————————————————-
Brandon Villafuerte     32   4.11   3   2 34   0   46.0   49   21   3   15   32
Josh Johnson         24   4.20   9   7 22 22   122.0 128   57   9   45   92
Logan Kensing         25   4.29   3   2 37   0   42.0   39   20   7   20   48
Dontrelle Willis*      26   4.34 14 13 35 35   224.0 241 108 23   77 162
Taylor Tankersley*      25   4.36   5   4 81   0   66.0   61   32   9   36   70
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.46———————————————————————-
Anibal Sanchez         24   4.58   6   6 20 20   118.0 124   60 15   42   93
Sergio Mitre         27   4.62   6   7 26 20   115.0 128   59 11   37   70
Ross Wolf           25   4.71   3   3 52   0   65.0   73   34   5   23   38
Armando Benitez       35   4.71   3   4 44   0   42.0   41   22   6   23   41
Erasmo Ramirez*        32   4.75   2   3 46   0   53.0   63   28   7   10   24
Byung-Hyun Kim         29   4.76   9 10 33 26   153.0 159   81 17   71 137
Scott Olsen*          24   4.97 10 14 33 33   190.0 205 105 26   80 156
Ricky Nolasco         25   5.15   6   9 25 19   110.0 126   63 18   33   83
Wes Obermueller       31   5.19   3   4 21 12   85.0   93   49   9   44   56
Aaron Thompson*        21   5.19   5   8 23 22   130.0 148   75 15   53   83
Scott Nestor         23   5.28   3   5 60   0   75.0   74   44   9   52   65
Nic Ungs             28   5.28   5   7 25 20   121.0 139   71 16   47   73
Chris George*        28   5.39   6   9 26 22   132.0 146   79 18   65 100
Jesus Delgado         24   5.47   4   7 33 10   79.0   86   48   9   45   54
Daniel Barone         25   5.52   5   8 33 20   145.0 170   89 25   46   88
Henricus van den Hurk   23   5.52   4   6 20 19   101.0 104   62 18   49   99
Harvey Garcia         24   5.80   3   7 71   0   90.0   94   58 15   53   85
Gaby Hernandez         22   5.94   7 13 27 27   147.0 171   97 25   65   92
Chris Seddon*        24   6.02   6 13 33 31   163.0 195 109 28   62   97
Christopher Volstad     21   6.12   7 15 28 27   169.0 210 115 29   62   92
Marcos Carvajal       23   6.25   3   8 37 14   108.0 123   75 18   72   75
Carlos Martinez       26   6.30   1   3 34   0   40.0   48   28   9   13   31
Blake McGinley         29   6.49   3   8 39   8   79.0   95   57 19   25   53
Scott Tyler           25   6.79   1   2 43   0   53.0   55   40   6   59   42

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Dontrelle Willis
Name           ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.63 16 10 35 35 228 228   92 19   66 175
Mean           4.34 14 13 35 35 224 241 108 23   77 162
Pessimistic (15%)  5.27   9 13 29 29 181 211 106 25   73 125

Top Near-Age Comps:  Mike Hampton, Paul Splittorff

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Nationals

Projections

Blue Jays

Projections

Rangers

Projections

Rays

Projections

Cardinals

Projections

Mariners

Projections

Giants

Projections

Padres

Projections

Pirates

Projections

Phillies

Projections

A’s

Projections

Yankees

Projections

Mets

Projections

Twins

Projections

Brewers

Projections

Dodgers

Projections

Angels

Projections

Royals

Projections

Astros Projections

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2007 at 11:00 PM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:27 AM (#2627582)
Is that the smallest difference between an optimistic and a mean projection?

EDIT: Referring to Miguel Cabrera, of course.
   2. Russ Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:29 AM (#2627586)
Is that the smallest difference between an optimistic and a mean projection?


Power of shrinkage. No one is supposed to be that good... the prediction just won't let itself get out that far, I would guess.
   3. Honkie Kong Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:38 AM (#2627590)
Isn't that a bit low for Hermida? Its going to be his third year in the big leagues.
When he broke in, the big debate was who was going to have more value, Hermida or Frenchy...Seems like that fight was a TKO
   4. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:41 AM (#2627591)
That team is in dire need of a centerfielder.

I am astonished that Dontrelle would project so poorly. I know he had an ugly 2007 but... man.
   5. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:42 AM (#2627593)
Who is John Gall?

I don't get it.

Why are Cabrera's comps so unimpressive? I'm just a little surprised to see those names there and not, you know, Hank Aaron or Frank Robinson or someone like that.
   6. dr. bleachers Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:47 AM (#2627596)
I am astonished that Dontrelle would project so poorly. I know he had an ugly 2007 but... man.

It looks remarkably similar to his 4.36 FIP 2006 campaign.
   7. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:53 AM (#2627602)

It looks remarkably similar to his 4.36 FIP 2006 campaign.


His home runs allowed spiked but I see what you mean.
   8. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:53 AM (#2627603)
When he broke in, the big debate was who was going to have more value, Hermida or Frenchy...Seems like that fight was a TKO

I can't tell if this is a joke or not.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:54 AM (#2627604)
Why are Cabrera's comps so unimpressive? I'm just a little surprised to see those names there and not, you know, Hank Aaron or Frank Robinson or someone like that.

Ron Santo's a should-be easy HOFer and Jim Ray Hart was an awesome player. Cabrera's fairly unique, too - not a lot of 3B before ZiPS insists on finding 1B and corner outfielders. Aaron's on that list, as are Bagwell, Vlad, and Brett, among others.
   10. dr. bleachers Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:01 AM (#2627611)
His home runs allowed spiked but I see what you mean.

I mean the projection looks similar to his 2006 line (identical WHIP, 21 HR, 160/83 K/BB). Just an ER result more in line with his DIPS numbers.
   11. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:04 AM (#2627613)
As most people know, I'm not a big Hermida booster. That said, I expect he'll outperform that projection, assuming that he continues to be as aggressive at the plate as he was in the second half last year. But he does have holes in his swing, and he can
be pitched to.

-- MWE
   12. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:06 AM (#2627614)
Thanks Dan, I didn't mean to slight Santo or Hart, I was just expecting the biggest of the big names for Cabrera. Also, I knew nothing about Jim Ray Hart until this, what a flame out. Is there a story (I'm guessing injury) behind that?
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:09 AM (#2627620)
Those are some pretty good numbers from relievers picked up off the trash heap - Justin Miller, Lee Gardner, Brandon Villafuerte.
   14. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:13 AM (#2627625)
All three guys you mentioned have killed in the minors for years... Miller has the best stuff of the bunch.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:13 AM (#2627626)
Also, I knew nothing about Jim Ray Hart until this, what a flame out. Is there a story (I'm guessing injury) behind that?

Messed up his shoulder, I think.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:17 AM (#2627628)
Borchard actually looks marginally useful. I must admit, I did not expect that.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:30 AM (#2627639)
As I mention, some of that Willis projection is defense - I have him projected for a lower ERA for every NL team but Cincinnati and Colorado.
   18. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:32 AM (#2627643)
Tyler's been released, I think. As well he should have been.

-- MWE
   19. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:35 AM (#2627644)
"Henricus"?

(checks website)

Why didn't anyone tell me this "Rick van den Hurk" was a living, breathing guy from the Netherlands?! MLB really has to publicize things like that better. I had no idea any Dutch person who wasn't actually from a Caribbean island was a good enough prospect to be in an MLB rotation in the near future, let alone was in one for much of the last season.

Why, he might already be better than Robert Eenhorn AND Rikkert Faneyte!
   20. Kirby Kyle Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:37 AM (#2627646)
Who is John Gall?

I don't get it.


It won't help deflect accusations that Dan is a crypto-Randian.
   21. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:47 AM (#2627652)
Why didn't anyone tell me this "Rick van den Hurk" was a living, breathing guy from the Netherlands?!


You didn't ask. (ba da boom)

Vanden Hurk (that's how he was listed in the game programs) is a 6'5" righty who has spent much of his minor league career hurt (he had TJ surgery in 2005). He pitched very well for the Mudcats, which is where he was supposed to be all year and probably would have been if Ricky Nolasco hadn't gotten hurt. He cameoed with the big club before coming down to Five County, and impressed Fredi Gonzalez enough so that when Florida needed a starter in June he came back up. He's going to be a good major league pitcher if he stays healthy.

-- MWE
   22. Dizzypaco Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:02 AM (#2627658)
If Willis ended up on a good team with a good defense, I wouldn't be surprised to see him have some kind of break out year. I got the sense that the defense killed him last year. I now see that Dan addressed this up above.
   23. Marcel Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:17 AM (#2627666)
That team is in dire need of a centerfielder.

They have one. The problem is that he's playing currently shortshop.
   24. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:20 AM (#2627669)
That team is in dire need of a centerfielder.


They've needed one for three years, and they refuse to address the problem.

-- MWE
   25. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:36 AM (#2627676)
Looking back on the preseason predictions, it did seem like the media thought the plan to have Alejandro de Aza play CF full-time was the most dubious lineup decision in living memory. The last thing I remember being so universally and accurately viewed as a failure before it even started was the Rockies' signing of Denny Neagle.
   26. AROM Posted: November 29, 2007 at 04:00 AM (#2627691)
The last thing I remember being so universally and accurately viewed as a failure before it even started was the Rockies' signing of Denny Neagle.


Signing Shea Hillenbrand as your DH was a failure from the start.

I'm surprised in the small difference between Miggy's average and optimistic line, though I admit I don't have the first clue how they are figured. My gut feeling is that an optimistic season from Miggy includes 40 homers, and that he must have a 90% chance of hitting 40+ one of these years.
   27. shoewizard Posted: November 29, 2007 at 04:01 AM (#2627693)
Willis had a FIP of 4.30 in 2006, and an xFIP of 4.69

The defense behind him was not all that much better than in 2007.
2006 DER .692, 2007 .682

I'm not saying the lousy defense didn't hurt him....of course he did.

But the guy had a 5.10 FIP and 4.76 xFIP last year. Certainly he has to take SOME responsibility for that, no?
   28. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 04:10 AM (#2627700)
I'm really surprised Dick Allen isn't on Cabrera's comps list.
   29. Darren Posted: November 29, 2007 at 04:11 AM (#2627702)
Hermida looks like a monster if he's finally healthy. I see him shattering that projection.
   30. AROM Posted: November 29, 2007 at 04:12 AM (#2627704)
I was thinking of him too. He's a good comp for Miggy on defense too, unlike Santo.
   31. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 29, 2007 at 09:48 AM (#2627842)
Van Den Hurk has a really good curveball.

I've always kept on a eye on Gaby Hernandez because he's the prospect the Mets gave up for Lo Duca. I like to compare him to Kevin Mulvey because the Mets could have signed Ramon Hernandez and kept Gaby but instead chose to trade for Lo Duca and keep the draft pick they used on Mulvey. It's interesting to see that Zips likes Mulvey a lot more than Herrnandez. Mulvey was better than Gaby last year (similar k/9, slightly better k/bb, much better hr/9) but Gaby's a year younger.

It's a travesty for Marlin pitchers that they have to pitch in front of that joke of a defense.
   32. Menchwarmer Posted: November 29, 2007 at 02:38 PM (#2627885)
As I mention, some of that Willis projection is defense - I have him projected for a lower ERA for every NL team but Cincinnati and Colorado.

Wait, I thought Colorado had a great defense... I mean I'm sure the playoff commentators were exaggerating it a bit, but were they really that far off?
   33. AROM Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:00 PM (#2627895)
Rockies have a good defense, but their pitchers still have to pitch half their games in Coors.
   34. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 04:50 PM (#2627998)
I don't get it.

Count yourself fortunate. It's from the worst book I will ever read.
   35. this space for rent Posted: November 29, 2007 at 05:17 PM (#2628043)
Question for Dan:

Is the "LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER/RELIEVER" line adjusted for defense as well as park? Should it be?

To the latter question, I would think yes. Why define someone who would have an above-average ERA in a neutral park with average defense support as "below average" just because they happen to play for the Marlins?
   36. Ron Johnson Posted: November 29, 2007 at 09:31 PM (#2628413)
Is there a story (I'm guessing injury) behind that?


Hart had chronic shoulder problems -- going back to his rookie season. He also is supposed to have had a fairly serious drinking problem.

In the field he was basically Bobby Bonilla -- without Bonilla's arm.
   37. xeifrank Posted: November 29, 2007 at 10:34 PM (#2628480)
4. With Cody Ross likely to start in CF, I don't see the "dire" need for a CFer.
vr, Xei
   38. user Posted: November 30, 2007 at 12:45 AM (#2628610)
I know playing time predictions come with a ton of disclaimers but can I ask how the system possibly gives a mean projection of 162 games?
   39. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2007 at 12:58 AM (#2628615)
I know playing time predictions come with a ton of disclaimers but can I ask how the system possibly gives a mean projection of 162 games?

Kind of an oddball relic of young players games going up quite a bit in their early-mid 20s - kinda low on my priority list to really shore up, to be honest.
   40. bigseries Posted: November 30, 2007 at 03:00 PM (#2628989)
This question may have been asked already, but have you released the Major League 1-yr and 3-yr park factors with the six stat categories?

Thanks.
   41. BTL: Lesser Primate, 4th Class Trainee Posted: November 30, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2629831)
Re: Jim Ray Hart. I have either forgotton how to link or the button has been removed.

Someone needs to improve his Wikipedia entry. Very sparse and says he was "never a great player", even though his OPS+ from age 22-26 was something like 133-130-130-152-128, all as a full-time player (over 150 games played each year the first four years, 136 games the fifth year).

His first year in the majors in1963, according to baseball library, he was hit by Bob Gibson in the shoulder blade and later beaned by someone else and missed the rest of the year. Despite this, he had an incredible rookie season in 1964.
   42. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 30, 2007 at 09:55 PM (#2629861)
Mulvey was better than Gaby last year (similar k/9, slightly better k/bb, much better hr/9) but Gaby's a year younger.


Gaby's biggest problem is that he's too intense - he puts a lot of pressure on himself, and when he does that he starts leaving the ball up and out over the plate. He also wore down near the end of the season.

-- MWE
   43. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 30, 2007 at 09:58 PM (#2629869)
Thanks Mike.
   44. Runscreated Posted: December 03, 2007 at 07:55 AM (#2631914)
Does Uggla's offense outweigh his defensive shortcomings? 11 Errors for a second baseman is not to bad. Is it his range? Turning the DP?
   45. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:01 AM (#2631917)
Uggla has really poor range and poor defensive instincts. He'll likely move to third when/if Cabrera gets traded.
   46. RobLS Posted: December 11, 2007 at 03:27 PM (#2641196)
Any projections for Maybin and Miller, now that they have been traded to Florida? Thanks.
   47. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2007 at 03:34 PM (#2641201)
Rob, I had projections for them in the thread on the trade that can be found here.

In the final ZiPS release, everybody will be with their correct team (and most of the cracks filled in).
   48. RobLS Posted: December 11, 2007 at 03:56 PM (#2641235)
Dan, thanks. I forgot about looking there.

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