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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 04, 2008

2008 ZiPS Projections for Diamond Mind 9 and Microsoft Excel, Build 1.1

The title is pretty explanatory. 

2008 ZiPS Projections for Microsoft Excel

2008 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9

2/8 Update

The DMB disk has been updated with SG’s version with depth charts, plus a few new signings (Hinske, Miller, etc.) a couple of other minor league signings, Slayden moved to PHI, and projections for Ramon Nivar (256/295/331, Edgar Gonzalez (259/319/370), and John Hudgins (4.98).  Remember to let me know of additional player requests!

So, what’s done here?  Projections for 1036 pitchers and 1005 hitters.  If you play Diamond Mind, 40-man rosters (with the exceptions of players I don’t do like whathisface from Cuba and David Price) and as many non-roster invitees as I have been able to verify are on the team, either as a non-roster invitee, an offseason minor league signing, or a carryover player not eligible for minor league free agency.

SG has provided the 2008 schedule, so that’s done.

What’s then left is making any corrections, adding any players that you wish to see projected that I can reasonably do (some 300 players here did not have projections for the team-by-team rundowns), and eventually making rosters.  In particular, if any DMB players would like to contribute a manager tendencies profile,  it would be a big help and save time of the odious task of whittling the 40-man rosters down and allocating playing time for sims.

To import the 2008 disk into DMB, create a new empty database, select “Restore” and choose the zip file provided.

Creative Commons License

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Dan Szymborski Posted: February 04, 2008 at 05:09 AM | 116 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Harvey Berkman Posted: February 21, 2008 at 01:43 AM (#2696198)
did jeff fassero finally retire?
   102. OBSLCommish Posted: February 21, 2008 at 11:10 PM (#2696994)
Any chance of getting projections for 2B/CF Alexei Ramirez? Thanks again for all of your hard work, Dan
   103. PS is probably not getting fined for tax purposes Posted: February 22, 2008 at 12:16 AM (#2697032)
You need minor league stats to project someone. Conversions from Japan are well documented, but from any other league, there isn't enough data to go on.
   104. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2008 at 04:05 PM (#2697960)
I have a rudimentary college translation that I use when I absolutely have to (I couldn't get away with not doing Weeks in 2004), but I don't even know where to start with translating a Cuban. Hell, we barely know their ages within 5 years!
   105. PS is probably not getting fined for tax purposes Posted: February 23, 2008 at 11:15 PM (#2698245)
I know Davenport had some fun come WBC time, trying to guess at conversion factors from some of the most obscure leagues at the time. Granted, the more players that can be done, the better (I managed to win the Price sweepstakes in my keeper sim league.) But considering low minors isn't always an exact science either, it's mostly debating whether a larger sample size compensates for the higher error of sketchy translations.
   106. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: February 24, 2008 at 01:42 AM (#2698316)
Can you do Duchscherer, Affeldt, Myers, and Dempster as starters? And maybe Carlos Villanueva as a full-time starter?
   107. PS is probably not getting fined for tax purposes Posted: February 24, 2008 at 04:36 AM (#2698405)
Dan released a tool some time back where you could plug in pitcher numbers, and it converted them to SP/RP as you see fit... I'll plug them in, and assuming the logic hasn't changed, these ought to be the results.

J.Duchscherer: 9-6, 21 GS, 128 IP, 132 H, 54 ER, 15 HR, 26 BB, 102 SO, 3.80 ERA
J.Affeldt: 8-11, 27 GS, 128 IP, 139 H, 77 ER, 15 HR, 66 BB, 76 SO, 5.41 ERA
B.Myers: 12-10, 31 GS, 193 IP, 192 H, 89 ER, 32 HR, 56 BB, 183 SO, 4.15 ERA
R.Dempster: 9-11, 27 GS, 141.7 IP, 149 H, 80 ER, 17 HR, 64 BB, 106 SO, 5.08 ERA
C.Villaneuva: 8-8, 22 GS, 143.3 IP, 147 H, 76 ER, 22 HR, 55 BB, 110 SO, 4.77 ERA
   108. Dr. Vaux Posted: February 24, 2008 at 05:48 AM (#2698443)
I heard the Brewers might start Villanueva in the minors because he has an option left!
   109. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: February 26, 2008 at 08:28 PM (#2700520)
Everyone being considered for the 4/5 spots has options left (including Capuano) except Vargas.
   110. Ted Roethke Posted: March 04, 2008 at 01:20 AM (#2705284)

Over on the DMB forum, there's some discussion about how splits play out in your ZiPS disk. David Pyke, DMB's tech support man, said as follows:

"If the player records on the ZiPS Projection disk were created using the "Overall" method, which I think we can assume, then DMB would "use historical norms to rate batters to perform better against opposite-handed pitchers. The difference is about 20 batting average points and 30-40 points in slugging average. In other words, a lefty hitter who batted .280 overall would be rated to hit about .287 against righties and .267 against lefties. If that player faces righties about 2/3 of the time, his overall average in his DMB games would be around .280. Similar adjustments are made for right-handed batters and for pitchers."

I'm thinking that what David says is indeed the case with ZiPS: that if you use the disk, over time, splits will tend to fall out along the lines of historical norms. There have been some questions posed by folks who are assuming (without being certain or testing them) that the splits are totally vanilla; i.e., they don't exist.

Knowing what you know about DMB's game engine and how the ZiPS disk was created, would splits tend to fall out over historical norms over time?


   111. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 04, 2008 at 02:13 AM (#2705302)
Ted, I haven't been approved for posting by admins yet, so until then:

I've always taken it for granted that any split created with overall would have the event table apply generic historical splits as that's always been my experience - I've played a ridiculous amount of DMB. If I thought that "Overall" generated an event table was the same for lefties as righties, I'd definitely make more of an effort to project splits. The only thing I've done differently this year (though not for the first release) is regenerate tables for starting switch-hitters with strong platoon splits (like Orlando Hudson) by changing them to the side of the plate they're in tune with, regenerating the event table, and then putting them back to switch.
   112. Ted Roethke Posted: March 04, 2008 at 02:27 AM (#2705304)

Thanks for taking the time to answer. I think this will make some posters on the DMB forum (including me) pretty happy.

Is it okay if I put your reply up on the thread where this is being discussed, or would you rather answer questions there yourself if you post there?

Thanks again.
   113. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 04, 2008 at 02:49 AM (#2705313)
I'd like to put up my reply myself, if only because it took me awhile to figure out what the hell "Yuku" was and to actually get it to accept my interpretation of the 4 letter picture design!
   114. Ted Roethke Posted: March 04, 2008 at 03:14 AM (#2705331)
Well, you certainly deserve to do the honors. "Yuku" is one of those words that gives me the willies even to say. Like a "venti" coffee at Starbucks.

Thanks for your feedback. Dan.
   115. Ted Roethke Posted: March 04, 2008 at 03:36 PM (#2705608)
SG ran 100 iterations with the ZiPS projection disk. Here's his post on the DMB forum and link to his spread sheet:

TedRoethke (and anyone else who's curious), you can download the splits for 100 iterations with the ZiPS projection disk here:
   116. Dan Evensen Posted: May 27, 2008 at 03:56 PM (#2795509)
I just want to say that I hope Dan continues these projection disks despite the drama over at Diamond Mind.
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