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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 22, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

While the projections aren’t exactly the rosiest for 2008, there’s a lot more to like here than there was this time last year.  Dayton Moore has had a lot of work to do since taking over and he will continue to have a lot to do as there was simply a lot of organizational mess to clean up from the previous regime.  But Moore’s done a good job so far cleaning out the Augean stables and there really are good reasons to hope.  Gordon will be fine in the long run, Butler’s way to a DH job is more clear with some of the leftovers now safely out of the way.  Hochevar and Cortes aren’t ready yet, but should continue to develop nicely and if Greinke’s various issues are out of the way, he could beat that projection impressively.  I think 3 league-average or better starting pitchers is the best ZiPS has projected in years!

As long as the Royals stay on task, keep trying out young pitchers (I projected a dozen 25-and-under hurlers and there are more in the low levels), they should find some more gems, as they did with Soria.  That’s the best part about truly rebuilding - you can try out players that you’d never get a chance to see when you’re not obsessed with pulling out all the stops for an 80-win season, as was the case before Moore took over, when Baird was signing all sorts of mediocre guys, from Sanders to Elarton, with no clear organizational purpose other than “not be horrible.”  By developing the team to one day actually be “good,” Moore’s likely to be a lot more effective at fulfilling Baird’s goal than Baird was.  This might not be the year, but the White Sox should start looking in the rear-view mirror.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.284 .363 .477—————————————————————
Billy Butler         lf 22 .288 .360 .471 144 524 67 151 36 3 18 80 57 73 0 0
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.282 .354 .458—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.282 .352 .460—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.279 .348 .450—————————————————————
Mark Teahen*        rf 26 .279 .351 .431 161 580 87 162 35 7 13 72 62 134 9 1
Alex Gordon*        3b 24 .264 .339 .453 160 569 71 150 39 3 21 77 53 139 16 4
David DeJesus*        cf 28 .287 .355 .431 128 501 81 144 31 4 11 55 46 76 8 6
Ryan Shealy         1b 28 .268 .336 .439 122 358 48 96 20 1 13 49 33 128 1 0
Ross Gload*          1b 32 .292 .332 .447 97 264 34 77 18 1 7 38 16 35 2 1
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.276 .341 .427—————————————————————
Justin Huber         1b 25 .279 .334 .437 124 423 36 118 23 1 14 51 30 89 1 1
Mike Sweeney         dh 34 .266 .331 .433 79 289 32 77 21 0 9 47 24 43 1 0
Esteban German       2b 30 .284 .364 .383 120 366 62 104 19 4 3 40 42 58 16 6
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.284 .342 .416—————————————————————
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.279 .335 .409—————————————————————
Mark Grudzielanek     2b 38 .292 .332 .402 105 408 59 119 26 2 5 49 20 56 1 2
Emil Brown           lf 33 .268 .332 .392 105 362 48 97 19 1 8 56 33 72 6 1
Reggie Sanders       rf 40 .250 .323 .419 51 172 26 43 11 0 6 33 17 49 4 2
AVERAGE C———————- c——.265 .327 .405—————————————————————
Shane Costa*        rf 26 .266 .313 .396 143 455 54 121 32 3 7 43 25 62 6 2
John Buck           c   27 .232 .301 .394 125 401 45 93 20 0 15 53 34 98 1 2
Joey Gathright*      cf 27 .270 .344 .328 153 482 72 130 17 4 1 38 47 83 31 15
Craig Brazell*        1b 28 .243 .281 .421 119 432 36 105 24 1 17 60 21 95 1 1
Mitch Maier*        cf 26 .260 .303 .384 153 580 68 151 31 4 11 61 33 103 7 5
Jorge Padilla         rf 28 .253 .307 .338 126 438 50 111 17 1 6 41 29 84 8 5
Chris Lubanski*      lf 23 .238 .298 .360 140 508 49 121 27 4 9 50 44 112 5 7
Tony Pena           ss 27 .270 .294 .354 124 426 53 115 19 4 3 38 12 76 9 7
Jason Smith*        ss 30 .241 .277 .382 92 241 29 58 10 3 6 29 11 69 4 3
Adam Greenberg*      cf 27 .217 .318 .315 107 336 43 73 16 4 3 27 45 93 9 5
Matt Tupman*        c   28 .246 .327 .291 97 313 25 77 11 0 1 25 36 39 2 2
Mike Aviles         ss 27 .250 .285 .343 134 513 48 128 21 3 7 50 25 55 6 4
Mario Lisson         3b 24 .234 .296 .326 150 531 53 124 23 1 8 50 39 117 23 12
Angel Berroa         ss 30 .244 .285 .331 125 459 48 112 18 2 6 44 18 81 4 4
Angel Sanchez         ss 24 .251 .297 .312 103 398 57 100 16 1 2 30 22 47 3 5
Bill McCarthy         rf 28 .214 .266 .328 106 360 31 77 15 1 8 34 19 94 2 2
Fernando Cortez*      2b 26 .240 .278 .295 121 434 48 104 17 2 1 29 21 70 11 4
Paul Phillips         c   31 .217 .259 .294 91 309 30 67 12 0 4 27 16 38 1 1
Adam Donachie         c   24 .192 .263 .279 105 333 31 64 14 0 5 25 30 91 0 0
Derek Wathan#        3b 31 .215 .251 .293 73 242 24 52 11 1 2 20 11 41 5 2
Richard Lewis         2b 28 .209 .258 .277 108 339 36 71 12 1 3 28 19 71 4 3
Onil Joseph         rf 26 .230 .258 .290 126 427 38 98 11 3 3 32 15 108 6 10
Andres Blanco#        ss 24 .217 .265 .251 76 235 20 51 6 1 0 15 13 32 2 2

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Butler             Fr       Pr   Pr
Teahen*                Pr   Av Pr Av
Gordon*            Av   Av        
DeJesus*                  Vg Vg  
Shealy             Av            
Gload*            Fr       Fr   Fr
Huber             Fr       Fr   Fr
Sweeney           Pr            
German               Fr Fr Fr Fr Fr  
Grudzielanek           Av          
Brown                     Fr   Av
Sanders                   Fr   Fr
Costa*                    Av Pr Av
Buck           Av                
Gathright*                  Vg Av  
Brazell*          Fr       Fr    
Maier*                    Vg Av Vg
Padilla                   Av   Vg
Lubanski*                  Vg    
Pena                   Vg      
Smith*              Av Av Av      
Greenberg*                  Vg Av Vg
Tupman*        Vg                
Aviles               Vg Vg Av      
Lisson             Vg   Vg Fr      
Berroa               Fr Fr Fr      
Sanchez                 Vg      
McCarthy                   Av   Av
Cortez*            Vg Vg Vg   Vg Av  
Phillips       Vg                
Donachie       Av                
Wathan#            Av Av Av Fr Av Fr Av
Lewis             Vg Vg Av   Vg    
Joseph                     Av Fr Av
Blanco#              Vg   Av      

Player Spotlight - Alex Gordon
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .292 .373 .524 162 578 86 169 42 4 28 104 58 127 20 3
Mean         .264 .339 .453 160 569 71 150 39 3 21 77 53 139 16 4  
Pessimistic (15%) .243 .307 .400 123 437 47 106 25 1 14 58 35 117 8 4

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Eric Hinske, Grady Hatton

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Joakim Soria         24   2.83   3   1 48   0   54.0   46   17   4   12   56
Neal Musser*          27   3.99   3   3 51   0   79.0   83   35   8   27   56
David Riske           31   4.14   3   2 58   0   63.0   64   29   9   23   44
Joel Peralta         32   4.26   3   2 60   0   76.0   80   36   9   20   55
Jimmy Gobble*        26   4.29   3   3 76   0   65.0   68   31   8   22   59
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.41———————————————————————-
John Bale*          34   4.42   1   2 39   0   53.0   56   26   5   16   41
Gil Meche           29   4.55   9 11 32 31   188.0 200   95 21   66 126
Zack Greinke         24   4.76   9 10 27 27   155.0 171   82 23   40 110
Ryan Braun           27   4.79   3   4 43   0   62.0   66   33   6   28   44
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.81———————————————————————-
Brian Bannister       27   4.84   8 11 26 26   147.0 167   79 18   43   75
Leo Nunez           24   5.17   4   6 36 10   87.0   98   50 16   27   57
Colby Lewis           28   5.31   5   8 34 19   134.0 156   79 20   43   72
Odalis Perez*        31   5.31   6 10 25 21   122.0 147   72 14   40   68
Luke Hudson           31   5.33   4   6 20 12   76.0   84   45   9   34   45
Brandon Duckworth       32   5.51   5   8 27 15   98.0 116   60 12   43   53
Jarod Plummer         24   5.57   5 10 49   3   97.0 110   60 21   25   77
Ben Hendrickson       27   5.62   6 11 27 23   141.0 170   88 18   61   64
Jorge de la Rosa*      27   5.65   5 10 34 17   110.0 127   69 15   54   72
Blake Johnson         23   5.65   5   9 30 22   129.0 161   81 18   34   52
Matt Wright           26   5.70   6 10 25 21   128.0 149   81 19   49   75
Billy Buckner         24   5.82   7 14 36 27   167.0 198 108 27   70   98
John Thomson         34   5.85   3   7 16 15   80.0   99   52 11   30   40
Carlos Rosa           23   5.93   5 11 27 25   135.0 165   89 19   62   63
Luke Hochevar         24   5.98   5 12 31 29   170.0 200 113 31   67 112
Roman Colon           28   6.09   1   2 17   2   34.0   42   23   6   14   20
Dan Cortes           21   6.13   5 12 27 27   141.0 168   96 21   66   81
Zach Day             30   6.15   2   4 16 12   60.0   72   41   8   32   27
Tyler Lumsden*        25   6.25   5 12 28 27   144.0 180 100 21   70   58
Kyle Davies           24   6.41   6 14 27 27   132.0 162   94 22   61   81
Mike Connolly*        26   6.47   4 11 29 22   135.0 168   97 25   55   65
Julio Caesar Pimentel   22   6.69   4 11 33 16   121.0 160   90 20   65   39
Juan Cedeno*          24   7.55   2   6 40   6   87.0 111   73 18   60   42

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Gilgamesh
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.80 13   9 35 34 211 208   89 18   64 152
Mean           4.55   9 11 32 31 188 200   95 21   66 126
Pessimistic (15%)  5.54   6 11 27 26 151 179   93 22   63   93

Top Near-Age Comps:  Pete Vuckovich, Rick Helling

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Nationals

Projections

Blue Jays

Projections

Rangers

Projections

Rays

Projections

Cardinals

Projections

Mariners

Projections

Giants

Projections

Padres

Projections

Pirates

Projections

Phillies

Projections

A’s

Projections

Yankees

Projections

Mets

Projections

Twins

Projections

Brewers

Projections

Dodgers

Projections

Angels Projections

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2007 at 03:24 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Frisco Cali Posted: November 22, 2007 at 05:02 AM (#2623198)
Angel Berroa. His candle burned out long before, um, well, let's just say he sux.
   2. Greg K Posted: November 22, 2007 at 05:49 AM (#2623212)
It's funny when I play the Royals in MVP 2005
Blanco and Berroa have mediocre to awful ratings, and yet they always out-hit any all-star I bring over to the team.

That's a lot of 1b/dh types
   3. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: November 22, 2007 at 06:21 AM (#2623222)
I see a 15% chance the Royals have a guy who deserves to be at the ASG for once (at least for a position player). And I agree Greinke definitely beats that (I'd say this anyways since I'm a Gerinke fanboy deep down). Bannister's regression seems fair, since he is such a strange pitcher peripherally. You have wonder what he does right to make it work for him. Somehow this pitching staff has managed to go from absurdly terrible to relatively promising in 2 years.

Godspeed, Dayton.
   4. AROM Posted: November 22, 2007 at 06:39 AM (#2623225)
Last year Gordon was compared to David Wright (I don't know if Dan did, but a lot of people did). Now he's got Eric Hinske for a comp.

Ouch.
   5. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 22, 2007 at 07:31 AM (#2623232)
But Moore's done a good job so far cleaning out the Augean stables
Edith Hamilton would be pleased.
   6. bucbeatle Posted: November 22, 2007 at 06:15 PM (#2623449)
Dan,

Just thought you would like to know that in trying to access 'past' zips posts, I was unable to get the Los Angeles Angels page, as there seems to be an extra 'http' in the web address.

Also, the Pittsburgh Pirates page is showing as page not found.
   7. Honkie Kong Posted: November 22, 2007 at 07:41 PM (#2623474)
Also, the Pittsburgh Pirates page is showing as page not found.

Even the servers can't handle that anymore
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 23, 2007 at 04:00 AM (#2623615)
Those hitters numbers look about right, but I have to be honest that the pitching numbers look much higher than I was expecting. I am expecting Meche and Bannister to regress quite a bit, but I didn't think Greinke's numbers would project that badly. Buckner and Nunez pitched better than I thought their projects merited. Ah well, I think they can outdo a lot of those projections, but they also have a lot of wild cards that could go either way - Meche, Bannister, Greinke, Hochevar. Could be a really fun season or another really awful season.
   9. Paul M Hates Krispy Kreme Posted: November 23, 2007 at 05:07 PM (#2623783)
How is Odalis Perez only 31?
   10. Mike Green Posted: November 23, 2007 at 05:41 PM (#2623799)
Lest AG#1F think about jumping from a bridge at the Hinske-Gordon comparison, it should be noted that Mike Schmidt's projection after his age 23 season in the major leagues would have been none too pretty. Hinske had his RoY campaign at age 24, but turned 25 in August that year. I still like Gordon much more than Delmon Young.
   11. Boots Day Posted: November 23, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2623804)
Richard Lewis 2b 28 .209 .258 .277

Truly the second baseman from hell.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 23, 2007 at 07:20 PM (#2623847)
Hey, Hinske was at least ROY! I think Gordo found a tough adjustment to the MLB, and he will always have high strikeout numbers, but he really turned it on the last three months and I expect a good career going forward.
   13. Poster Nutbag Posted: November 24, 2007 at 07:29 PM (#2624290)
Player Spotlight - Gilgamesh

He of the almost-perfect, perfect game? Damn that Mike the Mouth!!!
   14. Snuffy Posted: November 24, 2007 at 10:11 PM (#2624356)
Will Kyle Davies live up to former expectations. Does he still have the potential to be a decent #3/#4 starter?
   15. BeanoCook Posted: November 25, 2007 at 05:58 AM (#2624509)
Last year Gordon was compared to David Wright (I don't know if Dan did, but a lot of people did). Now he's got Eric Hinske for a comp.

Ouch.


I think this is one player where the scouts will blow away the stats. Gordon is the read deal, stats have a real problem projecting a guy that skipped a level with little else to project from.

Gordon will be way over.
   16. Mike Webber Posted: November 25, 2007 at 04:46 PM (#2624636)
Dan, if you threw out April and May for Gordon what would his projection be?
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 25, 2007 at 04:58 PM (#2624646)
Without April and May, Gordon goes up to 279/356/475. I wouldn't do that, because as humans we too often throw out data when it seems to fit with a narrative. When fixing up translations a few years ago, I found no initial month translation penalty - minor leaguers play just as well in month 1 in the majors as they have in later months.
   18. Mike Webber Posted: November 25, 2007 at 06:32 PM (#2624698)
I think you're right Dan, its easy to throw out what you don't want to admit to, like I was pretty good on my diet at Thanksgiving other than that second helping of stuffing and that 2nd 1/2 slice of pie.

In this case however there was something with his swing that they were definitely they were working hard on at the end of the spring training and through April, so I think the odds he beats the projections are pretty good. Even still it just goes to show you throw out a .173 April and .195 May the projection only gains about 40 points of OPS.
   19. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:39 AM (#2627648)
I don't know if you do this Dan, but could you project Soria as a starter? There are rumblings some want to make him a starter. I wasn't sure if that would change his projections, or if that's too difficult to project or what. I know he doesn't have much of a minor league track record to go on.

But he threw a perfect game in the Mexican League! Use that as a data point!
   20. JPWF13 Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:09 AM (#2627698)
I found no initial month translation penalty - minor leaguers play just as well in month 1 in the majors as they have in later months.


really?
Even with guys like Gordon and Kouzmanoff???
BUt then again guys who aren't rookies sometimes have absurdly bad months- like Dioner Navvarro and Lugo in 2007....

I have a sneaking suspicion that soemtimes when a player's stats are being warped by an absurdly BAD stretch- Like Navarro's May or Lugo's June and such player has shown himself to be an MLB player and later his bat recovers- projections may be more accurate if that absurd stretch is thrown out-

I don't mean a garden variety slump- I mean when a batter hits like a pitcher or worse for 100-150 ABs- when I see that I tend to assume that something was going on, maybe an injury or other issue and absent a lingering injury issue- that skunk stretch should be ignored
   21. Dizzypaco Posted: November 29, 2007 at 04:08 AM (#2627753)
Its worth looking at what Gordon did again last year, month by month. He struggled a lot in April and May, as has been said. What has been implied by a lot of the comments was that he was solid the rest of the year, so we should throw out the first two months.

But what really happened is that he had a really good June, and then was very mediocre the second half of the season. Specifically, he became much more aggressive, and almost completely stopped drawing walks. This helped him raise his slugging percentage pretty dramatically, but didn't actually make him a good hitter. I don't think this a real good sign for the future. He may turn into a good player, but I don't think you can project stardom at this point. Dan's projection seems pretty reasonable to me.
   22. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 30, 2007 at 03:17 AM (#2628766)
Request for Paul Mildren, please.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2007 at 03:38 AM (#2628784)
Mildren: 5-12, 6.13, 144 IP, 169 H, 22 HR, 73 BB, 79 K.

Hope you don't mind me not updating the preformatted text above, it's really a pain doing that since expression engine editing screen isn't a fixed-width font! He'll appear in all future spreadsheets and such, though.
   24. RollingWave Posted: January 06, 2008 at 06:52 AM (#2661541)
What's the ZIPs outlook for Chin-Hui Tsao? any chance of being healthy?

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