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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, November 19, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeheim Angels

With the A’s maybe rebuilding, the Mariners a team with some talent run by Buzzie’s Other Idiot Son, and the Rangers, well, the Rangers, the Angels should have by far the easiest path to a 2008 playoff spot in baseball.  The strengths of the team are pretty obvious; a terrific trio of Escobar, Lackey, and the Dream Weaver (Jeff being the Nightmare Weaver), and a still potent Vlad.  While ZiPS might look down on the offense, it’s not really as bad as the high position of those average lines make it look (unlike, say, the Giants) as pretty much everyone is just ever-so-slightly below their average and there are no horrific holes in the offense with the overdue dumping of Shea Hillenbrand back in July.  It didn’t quite work in 2007, but the Angels do still have the ability to go deep in the playoffs.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Vladimir Guerrero     rf 32 .310 .384 .517 154 588 95 182 36 1 28 111 66 63 8 3
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.284 .363 .457—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.282 .353 .461—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.282 .351 .463—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.279 .347 .454—————————————————————
Casey Kotchman*      1b 25 .273 .350 .445 105 330 44 90 26 2 9 49 39 35 1 3
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.276 .340 .429—————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.281 .341 .419—————————————————————
Juan Rivera         lf 29 .275 .324 .448 95 324 40 89 20 0 12 56 21 39 1 2
Howie Kendrick       2b 24 .295 .328 .430 134 509 66 150 33 3 10 60 18 92 9 4
Gary Matthews Jr.#    cf 33 .268 .337 .417 135 511 75 137 28 3 14 59 51 93 11 4
Chone Figgins#        3b 30 .283 .354 .386 141 552 92 156 25 7 6 58 60 91 41 12
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.279 .334 .418—————————————————————
Mike Napoli         c   26 .227 .339 .417 111 321 52 73 17 1 14 44 50 101 3 3
AVERAGE C———————c——- .265 .326 .407—————————————————————
Reggie Willits#      lf 27 .274 .372 .338 147 456 78 125 22 2 1 70 70 83 25 10
Maicer Izturis#      3b 27 .273 .346 .378 127 410 61 112 22 3 5 47 45 47 11 6
Garret Anderson*      lf 36 .268 .312 .424 104 406 52 109 25 1 12 65 26 66 0 0
Kendry Morales#      1b 25 .274 .317 .424 128 453 50 124 28 2 12 57 25 71 0 3
Dallas McPherson*      3b 27 .237 .297 .447 68 228 30 54 14 2 10 32 18 83 4 2
Orlando Cabrera       ss 33 .274 .328 .364 149 591 86 162 33 1 6 67 47 59 18 3
Robb Quinlan         1b 31 .262 .312 .381 78 202 24 53 12 0 4 22 13 32 1 2
Mike Eylward         1b 28 .256 .314 .357 131 457 48 117 26 1 6 54 34 74 1 4
Sean Rodriguez       ss 23 .237 .312 .355 139 510 52 121 23 2 11 49 40 155 11 6
Nick Gorneault       lf 29 .235 .298 .376 116 417 56 98 19 2 12 46 35 121 7 5
Brandon Wood         3b 23 .228 .292 .368 120 443 40 101 24 1 12 48 38 153 10 2
Terry Evans         rf 26 .236 .280 .384 148 542 55 128 28 2 16 60 28 178 21 7
Jeff Mathis         c   25 .233 .285 .361 144 493 31 115 31 1 10 49 34 112 2 2
Bobby Wilson         c   25 .234 .288 .350 120 411 33 96 22 1 8 44 30 66 3 3
Adam Morrissey       2b 27 .225 .310 .306 116 409 45 92 16 1 5 33 43 136 4 4
Matthew Brown         3b 25 .216 .280 .355 138 485 45 105 26 1 13 46 37 144 6 6
Curtis Pride*        cf 39 .215 .306 .297 68 195 22 42 10 0 2 17 24 67 7 3
Nathan Haynes*        cf 28 .247 .302 .302 68 215 28 53 6 3 0 14 15 60 10 7
Ryan Budde           c   28 .213 .268 .322 71 211 19 45 11 0 4 21 13 53 2 1
Adam Pavkovich       2b 26 .217 .280 .310 106 323 31 70 16 1 4 28 26 80 4 7
Erick Aybar#        2b 24 .242 .274 .321 122 343 42 83 14 2 3 31 14 51 15 12
Hainley Statia#      ss 22 .232 .279 .292 145 548 61 127 24 3 1 43 35 94 20 13
Casey Smith         ss 29 .228 .271 .295 117 403 44 92 20 2 1 35 21 70 7 4
Michael Collins       1b 23 .222 .272 .289 130 464 37 103 17 1 4 42 12 65 4 5
Drew Toussaint       lf 25 .204 .257 .295 130 437 34 89 20 1 6 31 25 138 3 4

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Guerrero                       Av
Kotchman*          Vg            
Rivera                     Av   Av
Kendrick           Fr Vg          
Sarge Lite#                  Fr Av
Figgins#            Fr Pr   Vg Av Vg
Napoli         Fr                
Willits#                  Ex Pr Av
Izturis#            Av Av Av      
Anderson*                  Av    
Morales#          Av           Av
McPherson*          Av   Fr        
Cabrera                 Av      
Quinlan           Av   Pr   Av   Av
Eylward           Av   Pr   Fr    
Rodriguez                 Vg   Av  
Gorneault                   Av Pr Av
Wood                 Av Av      
Evans                     Av Pr Av
Mathis         Fr                
Wilson         Av   Av            
Morrissey             Av          
Brown                 Fr        
Pride*                    Fr Fr Fr
Haynes*                    Av Av Av
Budde         Vg   Av            
Pavkovich             Av Av Fr Av Fr Av
Aybar#              Vg Av Fr Av    
Statia#              Vg   Vg      
Smith               Vg   Fr      
Collins           Fr            
Toussaint                   Fr   Fr

Player Spotlight - Reggie Willits
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .274 .372 .338 147 456 78 125 22 2 1 35 70 83 25 10  
Mean         .294 .396 .368 160 503 99 148 27 2 2 47 85 84 34 9
Pessimistic (15%) .249 .338 .287 93 289 42 72 11 0 0 17 39 57 12 8

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: John Cangelosi, Jerry Mumphrey

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Francisco Rodriguez     26   2.55   5   1 69   0   74.0   56   21   5   30   98
Scot Shields         32   3.39   9   5 76   0   85.0   74   32   8   32   83
Jered Weaver         25   3.56 13   8 31 31   187.0 183   74 21   40 152
Kelvim Escobar         32   3.56 16   9 30 30   197.0 193   78 15   57 152
John Lackey           29   3.60 15   9 33 33   220.0 219   88 18   60 180
Justin Speier         34   3.66   3   2 62   0   59.0   54   24   8   20   52
Buzz Oliver*          37   3.90   2   2 52   0   67.0   66   29   8   20   50
Jason Bulger         29   4.02   4   3 51   0   56.0   52   25   6   26   62
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.21———————————————————————-
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.57———————————————————————-
Matt Hensley         29   4.70   1   1 11   1   23.0   24   12   2   6   16
Ervin Santana         25   4.71 12 13 33 32   193.0 204 101 25   65 145
Joe Saunders*        27   4.73 11 12 32 32   192.0 210 101 25   65 133
Nicholas Adenhart       21   4.77   9 11 28 28   168.0 187   89 15   67   93
Bartolo Colon         35   4.78   8   8 22 22   130.0 146   69 18   32   87
Dustin Moseley         26   5.02   6   7 34 17   113.0 127   63 15   40   68
Chris Bootcheck       29   5.04   3   3 58   0   75.0   83   42 10   31   52
Greg Jones           31   5.37   3   4 46   0   57.0   65   34 10   20   38
Jonathon Rouwenhorst*    28   5.54   6   9 41 13   112.0 130   69 18   42   62
Jose Arredondo         24   5.57   3   4 67   0   76.0   84   47 14   36   57
Jeff Kennard         26   5.58   4   7 50   0   79.0   89   49 11   39   50
Richard Thompson       23   5.67   3   6 51   0   81.0   89   51 19   31   68
Steven Shell         25   5.77   5 10 33 19   131.0 156   84 26   43   82
Nick Green           23   5.80   7 13 29 29   163.0 199 105 40   45   93
Pedro Liriano         27   6.19   4   9 28 19   112.0 138   77 20   46   53
Kasey Olenberger       30   6.21   6 10 28 23   145.0 175 100 32   53   82
Henry Bonilla         29   6.21   5 10 32 19   129.0 159   89 25   54   60
Stephen Marek         24   6.35   6 13 27 27   146.0 179 103 31   57   78

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - John Lackey
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  2.94 18   7 34 34 233 214   76 15   57 204
Mean           3.60 15   9 33 33 220 219   88 18   60 180
Pessimistic (15%)  4.32 11 10 28 28 177 190   85 17   61 137  

Top Near-Age Comps:  Roy Oswalt, Dizzy Trout

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.


Nationals

Projections

Blue Jays

Projections

Rangers

Projections

Rays

Projections

Cardinals

Projections

Mariners

Projections

Giants

Projections

Padres

Projections

Pirates

Projections

Phillies

Projections

A’s

Projections

Yankees

Projections

Mets

Projections

Twins

Projections

Brewers

Projections

Dodgers

Projections

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:21 AM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. joker24 Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:30 AM (#2619659)
Typo alert, the Willits optimistic is flip flopped with the mean.
   2. The District Attorney Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:36 AM (#2619663)
"Buzz"?
   3. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:38 AM (#2619665)
So, it looks like the Angels are projected to have awesome pitching and so-so hitting for the 2312 year in a row. What's up with the Buzz nickname for Darren Oliver?
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:45 AM (#2619669)
The nickname Buzz is sorely misused in 21st century and giving it to Oliver keeps alive one of the funniest game cancellations in history. Besides, where Darren Oliver was a crappy starter, Buzz Oliver is a good reliever.
   5. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:49 AM (#2619674)
Joba Chamberlain already has a cool name, or otherwise "Midge Chamberlain" would be appropriate.

Also, the Angels' only left-handed pitchers are Buzz Oliver, Joe Saunders and some 28-year-old minor league veteran who's unlikely to be on the 40-man roster? That's pretty odd.
   6. The District Attorney Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:53 AM (#2619678)
Oh, okay. I remember now.

When you say "pessimistic" about Willits, you ain't kidding. I can imagine it though, although, as you say, only 15% likely.

If Colon can manage that, whoever signs him will probably be pretty satisfied.
   7. 1k5v3L Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:54 AM (#2619681)
I was shocked to find out that Reggie Willits is white.
   8. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 19, 2007 at 07:02 AM (#2619691)
And the last remaining person on BTF has finally said that he thought Reggie Willits was black. Now we can all move on.
   9. 1k5v3L Posted: November 19, 2007 at 07:06 AM (#2619694)
How, this Howie Kendrick fella... Sounds like a corn-fed Nebraska boy in the mold of Pete Rose.
   10. mcopeland Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:47 PM (#2619796)
I'm trying to think of famous white people named Reggie, but they are definitely outnumbered:

Reggie Jackson
Reggie Sanders
Reggie Bush
Reggie Miller
Reggie Theus
Reggie Roby

Admittedly, those are all sports figures....
   11. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 19, 2007 at 02:55 PM (#2619800)
Elton John's real name is Reginald if I'm not mistaken.
   12. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:04 PM (#2619807)
Reggie from the Archie comics was as white as can be.
   13. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:15 PM (#2619818)
<i>Reggie from the Archie comics was as white as can be.</i?

He also forgot Reginald van Gleason III.
   14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:26 PM (#2619828)
"I'm trying to think of famous white people named Reggie, but they are definitely outnumbered:"

Reggie Cleveland?
   15. Dizzypaco Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2619833)
The famous Mickey Rivers quote:

To Reginald Martinez Jackson, "No wonder you're so messed up. You've got a white first name, a Spanish middle name, and a black last name."

Obviously, at one time, Reggie was considered a white name. I wonder if Reggie Jackson is partly responsible for it becoming popular with African Americans. Some of the athletes mentioned above pre-date Reggie's playing days, so I guess not...
   16. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:35 PM (#2619836)
The famous Mickey Rivers quote:

To Reginald Martinez Jackson, "No wonder you're so messed up. You've got a white first name, a Spanish middle name, and a black last name."


I love that. Reggie's response to that was, "Look at me, arguing with a man who can't read or write." To which Rivers responded, "Maybe you should do less reading and writing and more hitting." I'm paraphrasing here but Mickey Rivers was a sharp wit.
   17. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:44 PM (#2619843)
The character Reggie Lampert was tres blanc in Charade.
   18. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:46 PM (#2619844)
I'm trying to think of famous white people named Reggie, but they are definitely outnumbered


Reggie Perrin?
   19. Loren F. Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:52 PM (#2619849)
I loved The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin. A truly overlooked gem -- nearly as good as Fawlty Towers, but in a different way.
   20. Shoebo Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:53 PM (#2619852)
Any team is going to be a lot worse without their best player, but if Vlad misses any significant amount of time, the Angels look like a team that could go from first to worst in their division very quickly.
   21. Shoebo Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:55 PM (#2619856)
Oh...and why is Ervin Santana's projection listed twice in a row? ;)
   22. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 19, 2007 at 03:58 PM (#2619862)
I think Howie Kendrick will outperform Zips. I hope he does as I think he's a snazzy player. Looking this over, though, I wonder if the Angels will feel pressure to make a trade for Cabrera and what it would take to do it. Brandon Wood and Erick Aybar don't have the luster they once had. If they have to use Howie Kendrick as a centerpiece, I understand why they would be reluctant to pull the trigger.
   23. Kyle S Posted: November 19, 2007 at 04:01 PM (#2619866)
Howie has a projected .348 BABIP and that's still an ugly line. Angels fans, still don't want to trade him for Cabrera?
   24. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: November 19, 2007 at 04:09 PM (#2619884)
What Kyle S said.
   25. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 19, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2619896)
Oh yeah, not that many care, but the Angels lost Warner Madrigal because they added him to the 40 man roster too late. He became a minor league free agent and signed with Texas. From rotoworld.
   26. AROM Posted: November 19, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2619900)
Ugly? - I don't think so he's only a tiny bit under average 2B where he plays good defense, and young enough to get much better.

If they trade for Cabrera they'll be trading for a DH. He can't play third, his only viable defensive spot is 1B, and Kotchman has that spot. Cabrera would probably fight being used as a DH anyway - its a serious hit on a player's free agent value. Then we'd also have to trade 3 other players.

I'm neutral on a Cabrera acquisition. Yes, he's a great hitter, but the cost is high and he has his liabilities too.

I'd like to see a contract swap of Matthews Jr. for Scott Rolen, followed by a signing of Torii Hunter, but that's not going to happen - not only did they give Gm jr all that money they gave him a no-trade clause.
   27. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 19, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2619901)
Reggie Lemelin was a pretty decent goalie in the 1980s.
   28. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: November 19, 2007 at 04:28 PM (#2619912)
Reggie White
   29. The District Attorney Posted: November 19, 2007 at 04:28 PM (#2619913)
That's true... he was White.
   30. Mike Green Posted: November 19, 2007 at 04:29 PM (#2619914)
Jeff Mathis' projection is pretty stinky. The LAA offence is truly mediocre.

With the unbalanced schedule, the Angels look better than they are, as the AL West is the weak division of the stronger league. Nonetheless, the Cards of 06 demonstrate that it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, than a shark in an ocean.
   31. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 19, 2007 at 04:56 PM (#2619943)
Add 20 points of average to Kendrick, and thus 20 pts of OBP and SLG, and his projection is more likely and much more valuable.
   32. Kyle S Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:08 PM (#2620019)
BLB, I agree with the results of your "revised projection", but disagree that it's much more likely. ZiPS and CHONE are almost identical wrt Kendrick. Sure, he could hit 330 while striking out that much (or start striking out less), but that's not the median expectation of his performance.
   33. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:47 PM (#2620081)
I'll bet my house that Kotchman and Kendrick beat their projections.
   34. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: November 19, 2007 at 10:09 PM (#2620447)
it should be noted that after missing the majority of 2006 with mononucleosis, kotchman was hitting .330 in 2007 before getting hit by s pitch in the head on june 16, which resulted in a concussion.

before that date, he hit .333/.411/.557. after missing 9 days, he came back, and for the rest of the season, hit .263/.338/.390.


i'll take the over on his 2008 projection.
   35. Danny Posted: November 20, 2007 at 04:38 AM (#2620840)
With the unbalanced schedule, the Angels look better than they are, as the AL West is the weak division of the stronger league. Nonetheless, the Cards of 06 demonstrate that it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, than a shark in an ocean.


The West has had the best record of any division in the AL for 8 consecutive years.
   36. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 20, 2007 at 04:46 AM (#2620852)
The beasts of the East have to beat up on each other!
   37. Danny Posted: November 20, 2007 at 04:56 AM (#2620865)
Huh? Each division has a .500 intradivision record. The best division should have the best record outside of the division. That's the AL West.
   38. Shredder Posted: November 20, 2007 at 05:26 AM (#2620894)
So, it looks like the Angels are projected to have awesome pitching and so-so hitting for the 2312 year in a row. What's up with the Buzz nickname for Darren Oliver?
Wow, I didn't realize 2000 was so long ago.

Funny, now that I look at it, they were tops in slugging, 3rd in OPS, and 3rd in homers in 2000, yet 8th in runs scored. Almost the complete opposite of what they've done for the last couple years. Their pitching was awful, though.
   39. Matt Welch Posted: November 20, 2007 at 05:56 AM (#2620913)
So, it looks like the Angels are projected to have awesome pitching and so-so hitting for the 2312 year in a row.

They were 4th in runs per game last year (ahead of Cleveland) and 5th in runs allowed, despite way more injuries in the lineup than the rotation.

Looking this over, though, I wonder if the Angels will feel pressure to make a trade for Cabrera and what it would take to do it.

You rang!
   40. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 20, 2007 at 08:29 PM (#2621538)
BLB, I agree with the results of your "revised projection", but disagree that it's much more likely. ZiPS and CHONE are almost identical wrt Kendrick. Sure, he could hit 330 while striking out that much (or start striking out less), but that's not the median expectation of his performance.

Projection systems seem to regress batting average too much for high average hitters. I think .315 is much more likely for Kendrick than .295. A .348/.450 hitter is much better than a .328/.430.
   41. Kyle S Posted: November 20, 2007 at 08:56 PM (#2621597)
Projection systems seem to regress batting average too much for high average hitters.

I'm not so sure that this is true. I looked at CHONE 2007 forecasts and found the 10 hitters projected to hit for the highest average. I compared their actual averages with their forecast averages.
Hitter______ CHONE Actl Delta Result
Pujols,Albert .323 .327 +.004 Higher
Guerrero,Vlad .321 .324 +.003 Higher
Cabrera,Migue .320 .320 +.000 Even
Mauer,Joe____ .318 .293 -.025 Lower
Atkins,Garret .312 .301 -.011 Lower
Cano,Robinson .312 .306 -.006 Lower
Mccann,Brian_ .312 .270 -.042 Lower
Suzuki,Ichiro .311 .351 +.040 Higher
Crawford,Carl .309 .315 +.006 Higher
Jeter,Derek__ .309 .322 +.013 Higher
AVERAGE______ .315 .313 -.002


Other than two big outliers either way (McCann and Ichiro), everyone else was in a pretty tight band. As you'd expect with an unbiased estimator, 5 had higher averages than forecast, 4 had lower, and one was dead on.
   42. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 21, 2007 at 05:10 AM (#2622269)
Joe Saunders doens't project to be better than league average? Wow
   43. Barca Posted: December 19, 2007 at 06:08 PM (#2649897)
So the only Angel hitters projected to be better than average at their position are Vlad and Napoli?
Wow!
   44. AROM Posted: December 19, 2007 at 06:51 PM (#2649930)
Hunter should have no trouble topping the average CF line.
   45. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 19, 2007 at 06:56 PM (#2649936)
Jeter,Derek__ .309 .322 +.013 Higher

Jeter is so good at getting basehits. Whistful sigh.
   46. Willie Mayspedes Posted: December 21, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2651684)
#41 The two biggest dropoffs were catchers which seems like a different situation than other positions to me for whatever that's worth.

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