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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, November 04, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets

While the Ny Mets are not my favorite squadron, reports of the Mets’ demise are grossly premature.  When a team collapses as badly as the Mets did the last few months of the season, people always look for some narrative to explain that loss.  That the Mets are just a very good team that just played badly for awhile is generally not sexy enough for the headlines, but that’s what most likely happened.  How often did one hear OMG 4.67 SEC0ND HALF ERA!!!!!! the last few weeks of the season?  While that’s extremely disappointing, April, May, June, and the first third of July aren’t exhibition games and the Mets did a very good job at getting those same big leaguers out over that span.  Even with the bad second half, the Mets for the season got above-average performance out of both their rotation and their bullpen.  Maine and Perez are young and back and while Pedro’s health is likely going to always be a question-mark, 5 starts is certainly below Pedro’s mean health projection.

ZiPS really likes Kevin Mulvey, which puts him on my Antacid Watch List next year as I’ll probably follow him daily in a hope I can telepathically force him to make me not look like an idiot.  I’ve lucked out the last two notable occasions (projecting Maine to have an ERA half a point better than Benson at the time of the trade and then Rich Hill at 12-8, 3.65 for this season).  Pelfrey with a 4.30 projection for 2007 you say?  No, that must’ve been some other ZiPS, maybe from Akron.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
David Wright         3b 25 .313 .405 .540 154 576 106 180 42 1 29 113 87 110 23 5
Moises Alou         lf 41 .302 .365 .489 87 311 44 94 17 1 13 48 30 33 2 1
Carlos Beltran#      cf 31 .261 .347 .476 137 521 91 136 32 1 26 93 69 99 15 2
Carlos Delgado*      1b 36 .257 .349 .476 135 506 72 130 31 1 26 93 61 112 1 0
Jose Reyes#          ss 25 .285 .356 .444 158 673 122 192 34 14 15 70 74 79 71 20
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.274 .353 .437—————————————————————
Lastings Milledge     cf 23 .270 .355 .449 116 392 53 106 20 4 14 58 42 88 7 6
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.273 .345 .439—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.272 .342 .440—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.269 .339 .436—————————————————————
Shawn Green*        rf 35 .274 .343 .424 127 453 61 124 28 2 12 51 41 73 5 2
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.267 .331 .413—————————————————————
Luis Castillo#        2b 32 .294 .361 .359 137 537 82 158 18 4 3 44 57 55 18 7
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.271 .332 .402—————————————————————
Ramon Castro         c   32 .250 .318 .434 45 136 20 34 7 0 6 21 13 34 0 1
Brett Harper*        1b 26 .253 .299 .443 129 438 47 111 20 0 21 70 25 118 1 0
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.269 .325 .395—————————————————————
Fernando Tatis       3b 33 .255 .327 .397 110 388 42 99 19 3 10 39 38 72 3 3
Ben Johnson         rf 27 .246 .322 .394 98 317 46 78 18 1 9 39 33 82 3 1
Marlon Anderson*      2b 34 .257 .319 .410 109 210 28 54 12 1 6 29 19 40 4 2
Andy Tracy*          1b 34 .235 .333 .384 114 383 38 90 18 0 13 51 54 85 1 3
Damion Easley         2b 38 .242 .321 .392 76 186 23 45 10 0 6 22 17 34 1 1
AVERAGE C———————c——- .255 .316 .390—————————————————————
Paul Lo Duca         c   36 .274 .320 .369 111 420 50 115 23 1 5 46 26 28 2 0
Endy Chavez*        lf 30 .275 .319 .379 104 240 31 66 13 3 2 27 16 29 7 2
Jose Valentin#        2b 38 .237 .308 .402 88 249 32 59 15 1 8 34 25 50 3 1
David Newhan*        2b 34 .247 .319 .371 75 186 23 46 9 1 4 22 18 37 5 2
Jeff Conine         1b 42 .255 .323 .356 103 306 30 78 15 2 4 34 28 70 1 0
Mark Kiger           3b 28 .240 .330 .350 128 417 54 100 23 1 7 33 52 98 7 4
Carlos Gomez         cf 22 .247 .307 .355 104 324 34 80 16 2 5 30 20 67 22 8
Ruben Gotay#        2b 25 .245 .304 .361 119 380 39 93 21 1 7 41 30 74 4 3
Mike Carp*          1b 22 .226 .295 .352 123 421 38 95 20 0 11 53 30 94 1 1
Jason Alfaro         ss 30 .243 .280 .368 100 337 27 82 19 1 7 39 17 49 1 1
Anderson Hernandez#    ss 25 .265 .297 .341 133 525 64 139 22 3 4 37 23 79 13 8
Nicholas Evans       1b 22 .224 .277 .353 118 411 34 92 21 1 10 41 28 91 2 0
Shawn Wooten         c   35 .234 .286 .325 84 286 20 67 14 0 4 29 18 57 0 0
Fernando Martinez     cf 19 .236 .282 .335 69 263 24 62 12 1 4 22 13 55 2 4
Miguel Negron*        cf 25 .235 .284 .318 118 425 41 100 19 2 4 42 29 75 10 7
Mike DiFelice         c   39 .215 .283 .292 66 209 16 45 7 0 3 21 16 55 0 1
Sandy Alomar Jr.      c   42 .233 .252 .302 55 129   8 30 6 0 1 15   4 21 0 0
Jose Reyes#          c   25 .215 .267 .260 89 265 20 57 9 0 1 29 18 36 2 1

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Wright                 Av        
Alou                     Fr   Pr
Beltran#                    Ex  
Delgado*          Av            
Reyes#                  Vg      
Milledge                   Fr Fr Fr
Green*            Av           Fr
Castillo#            Av          
Castro         Fr                
Harper*            Av       Fr    
Tatis             Av   Fr   Fr   Fr
Johnson                   Av Av Vg
Anderson*          Av Av     Av Fr Av
Tracy*            Av   Pr        
Easley             Av Av Av Pr Av    
Lo Duca         Fr                
Chavez*                    Ex Ex Ex
Valentin#            Vg Vg   Fr   Fr
Newhan*            Av Pr Pr   Av   Av
Conine             Av       Av   Av
Kiger             Av Av Av Fr      
Gomez                     Vg Vg Vg
Gotay#              Fr Fr Pr      
Carp*            Av            
Alfaro               Av Av Pr Av   Av
Hernandez#            Vg   Av      
Evans             Av            
W00ten         Pr   Av            
Martinez                     Fr  
Negron*                    Av Av Av
DiFelice       Av                
Alomar         Pr                
Reyes#        Vg                

Player Spotlight - David Wright
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .334 .436 .608 161 602 129 201 48 3 37 145 105 107 33 4
Mean         .313 .405 .540 154 576 106 180 42 1 29 113 87 110 23 5  
Pessimistic (15%) .291 .372 .478 128 477 75 139 30 1 19 75 61 100 15 5

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Freddie Lindstrom, Chipper Jones

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Billy Wagner*        36   2.71   4   1 70   0   73.0   57   22   8   22   84
Pedro Feliciano*      31   3.18   4   2 75   0   65.0   56   23   5   25   58
Aaron Heilman         29   3.21   7   3 76   0   87.0   76   31   7   27   73
Pedro Martinez         36   3.24 12   6 24 24   150.0 129   54 16   36 145
Duaner Sanchez         28   3.52   5   3 65   0   69.0   63   27   6   27   53
Joe Smith           24   3.66   3   2 62   0   59.0   56   24   4   22   49
Oliver Perez*        26   4.04 13 10 29 29   176.0 161   79 25   72 170
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.12———————————————————————-
John Maine           27   4.15 13 10 31 30   178.0 168   82 23   66 148
Kevin Mulvey         23   4.17 10   8 23 23   138.0 150   64 10   37   71
Orlando Hernandez       42   4.25   9   8 26 24   142.0 132   67 21   57 119
Juan Padilla         31   4.28   4   4 53   0   80.0   84   38   8   28   51
Tom Glavine*          42   4.34 11 10 32 32   195.0 211   94 20   63   95
Scott Schoeneweis*      34   4.34   2   2 71   0   56.0   54   27   5   28   39
Jorge Sosa           31   4.47   9   9 45 18   131.0 137   65 18   50   77
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.48———————————————————————-
Steve Schmoll         28   4.75   3   4 55   0   72.0   79   38   8   24   38
Willie Collazo*        28   4.83   6   7 39 13   121.0 135   65 17   36   59
Guillermo Mota         34   4.85   2   3 56   0   65.0   66   35   9   28   50
Mike Pelfrey         24   4.86   9 10 29 28   150.0 163   81 16   60   90
Carlos Muniz         27   4.92   4   4 51   0   64.0   66   35 10   26   44
Aaron Sele           38   4.95   6   8 28 15   109.0 125   60 14   38   55
Ambiorix Burgos       24   4.97   3   4 58   0   67.0   65   37 14   28   67
Jonathan Niese*        21   5.17 10 13 31 31   160.0 182   92 19   56   93
Deolis Guerra         19   5.21   5   7 21 21   95.0 103   55 13   41   52
Phil Humber           26   5.39   6 10 24 22   122.0 137   73 24   34   74
Jason Vargas*        25   5.45   7 11 30 27   157.0 178   95 24   55   96
Dave Williams*        29   5.54   5   9 20 19   104.0 117   64 20   42   55
Adam Bostick*        25   5.65   6 11 27 26   145.0 158   91 22   74   93
Brandon Nall         26   6.00   4   5 44   0   63.0   86   42   7   37   52
Clint Nageotte         27   6.04   4   7 20 13   79.0   90   53   9   48   32

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - John Maine
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.15 18   8 35 34 206 173   72 18   67 190
Mean           4.15 13 10 31 30 176 168   82 23   66 148
Pessimistic (15%)  5.10   8 11 26 25 143 148   81 23   65 110

Top Near-Age Comps:  Ron Schueler, Stan Williams

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Nationals Projections

Blue Jays Projections

Rangers Projections

Rays Projections

Cardinals Projections

Mariners Projections

Giants Projections

Padres Projections

Pirates Projections

Phillies Projections

A’s Projections

Yankees Projections

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 04, 2007 at 05:50 PM | 64 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Darren Posted: November 04, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2604955)
ZiPS really likes Kevin Mulvey,



I just met this really cool baseball player, but I can't remember his name. All I know is that it rhymes with the name of Pirates relief pitcher. Asa? Gorres?
   2. JJ1986 Posted: November 04, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2604957)
That Gotay projection is ugly. Maybe the Mets should resign Castillo.
   3. TheUFactor Posted: November 04, 2007 at 06:26 PM (#2604959)
Beltran looks low - he's projected to slug 50 points less than either of the last two years and hit 7 fewer HR than either year?
   4. Amit Posted: November 04, 2007 at 06:28 PM (#2604962)
Interesting - these projections look like a team that needs a bat, not a team that needs more pitching, which is the conventional wisdom.
   5. TheUFactor Posted: November 04, 2007 at 06:28 PM (#2604963)
I would take that line from Delgado at this point in his career, but it's funny that he and the other Carlos have virtually identical projections.
   6. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2007 at 06:30 PM (#2604966)
LoDuca! 274/320/369/689!
Bring him back!
   7. Amit Posted: November 04, 2007 at 06:31 PM (#2604968)
#5 - I think that was true last year too, which was weird then also.

I assume the low line on Beltran looks low because of his awful 2005.
   8. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 04, 2007 at 06:35 PM (#2604972)
I'm liking that Milledge projection.

We need to re-sign Castro.

I'll take those pitcher projections.
   9. TheUFactor Posted: November 04, 2007 at 06:36 PM (#2604973)
Duque had a FIP of 4.89 last year, an average FIP since 2004 of 4.63, he's listed at 42 for 08 but God knows how old he really is. I'd be thrilled to get 4.25, though I'm not sure where it's coming from.
   10. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 04, 2007 at 07:07 PM (#2604987)
Interesting - these projections look like a team that needs a bat, not a team that needs more pitching, which is the conventional wisdom.


I doubt you'll find many teams with five hitters who project better than an average 1b (and for good measure they've got a sixth who projects as well as an average 1b). So far the Yankees have six, but two of them are free agents, and the A's have five, but three of them are LH 1B/DHs.

Jorge Posada could make a lot of money next year though.
   11. TheUFactor Posted: November 04, 2007 at 07:10 PM (#2604990)
Interesting - these projections look like a team that needs a bat, not a team that needs more pitching, which is the conventional wisdom.


We do have five regulars projected better than the average 1b and are above average at every position if you include Castro at C. This is hardly the Giants offense, even if our pitching projected better than expected.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: November 04, 2007 at 07:17 PM (#2604991)
Jose Reyes# c 25 .215 .267 .260 89 265 20 57 9 0 1 29 18 36 2 1

I told you he'd never learn to hit. :-)

Clint Nageotte is just 1 year older than Philip Humber? Who knew?

And there is something very, very wrong with baseball (or ZIPS) when Shawn Green is projected to hit about as well as the average RF.
   13. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 04, 2007 at 08:02 PM (#2605006)
And there is something very, very wrong with baseball (or ZIPS) when Shawn Green is projected to hit about as well as the average RF.

Green actually had a fine season against righthanded hitters, posting an .865 OPS against them last season. He wouldn't be a bad option as the righthanded portion of a platoon at first.

Random comments:

That's a nice projection for Pedro. If he is as effective as that, but throws 30-40 more innings, the Mets will have a true #1 starter. I really don't know what to expect from him next season. I could see him having a Cy Young calibre season like 2005 and I could see him throwing less than 100 IP. He really hasn't had arm issues other than the shoulder. Will he have a Smoltz like resurgence late in his career now that surgery has supposedly corrected the problem? One thing to keep in mind is that Pedro struck out 29.6% of the hitters he faced in his last 3 starts of the season, (24 strikeouts in 18 innings but he faced more baserunners than usual).

That's an amazing projection for Mulvey. I don't know why Zips thinks he'll be better than any starter but Pedro but I don't think that's happening. He might make some starts during the season though. I think Zips is being too hard on Humber. He wasn't horrible in the PCL with relatively strong peripherals.

That projects to be a solid bullpen and there's no reason to be pessimistic about any of those projections except Sanchez so they need to get one more guy. A Dotel would be nice perhaps. It'll be interesting to see what kind of season Heilman has considering his k/9 has fallen off a cliff. He averaged 9.82 k/9 as a reliever in 2005. That has dropped all the way down to 6.59 last season although he actually improved his k/bb ratio. Wagner was dominant for most of the season last year but faded down the stretch. Is that just a slump or something more worrisome?

I think Zips is right on Maine and just a little pesismistic about Ollie. Maine had such a weird stretch down the season. He struck out 62 hitters in his last 50.2 IP but posted a 4.97 ERA during that time. The Mets said he was tipping his pitches before his last start and he was awesome against the Marlins in his last start of the season.

I'll take the over on Beltran's and Alou's OPS. That's a sweet projection for Milledge. I'll take the under on Castro.
   14. Banta Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:02 PM (#2605024)
Mota doesn't deserve an ERA prediction below 5.

Really though, I have little comment otherwise. This all looks about right. Beltran might be low, but I wouldn't be surprised with that. Delgado projected to about what I was thinking.

Bold prediction: Kevin Mulvey is going to be better than some people think.
   15. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:14 PM (#2605035)
just a little pesismistic about Ollie

He wasn't as good as his ERA last year - his peripherals were those of a 4.5 ERA picther last season, and his RA was 4.58. I think that projection looks just fine.

Beltran is probably low, though.

Pedro is the big X-factor for the Mets next year. If he's PEDRO, the Mets are on the short list of favorites. If he pitches like a #3 starter (or pitches very little), they'll just be another NL contender.
   16. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:16 PM (#2605037)
Dan, not sure if you track such things, but does Perez have a larger variance in his projection than most other pitchers?

Also, (once again) thanks a million for running these and making them freely available. Great stuff, and your hard work is very much appreciated.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:23 PM (#2605042)
Joe, I haven't kept specific note, but Perez has a variation between 15th and 85th percentiles of 2.21 runs, which is definitely larger than average.
   18. Greg K Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:35 PM (#2605052)
Re: Wright's optimistic projection

200 hits and 100 walks is good right?
   19. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:35 PM (#2605053)
Joe, I haven't kept specific note, but Perez has a variation between 15th and 85th percentiles of 2.21 runs, which is definitely larger than average.

Thanks.
   20. DCW3 Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2605058)
Re: Wright's optimistic projection

200 hits and 100 walks is good right?


Yeah. I was kind of surprised to find out that only one active player had ever had a season like that (and only 13 players have ever done it). Any guesses?
   21. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:49 PM (#2605060)
Yeah. I was kind of surprised to find out that only one active player had ever had a season like that (and only 13 players have ever done it). Any guesses?

My best guess was Jeter, but he never did it.

Need a guy who compiles the PA, hits for average and takes walks. Hrm.
   22. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:52 PM (#2605061)
Yeah. I was kind of surprised to find out that only one active player had ever had a season like that (and only 13 players have ever done it). Any guesses?

Frank Thomas?

Didn't Boggs do it like 5 straight years or something?
   23. DCW3 Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:54 PM (#2605062)
Not Thomas.

Boggs did it four straight years from 1986 to 1989.
   24. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 04, 2007 at 09:54 PM (#2605063)
Thomas is wrong. I found the answer, once I saw it seemed pretty easy.

Only 4 in a row for Boggs, what a loser.
   25. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: November 04, 2007 at 10:02 PM (#2605066)
My guess was wrong, but it did end up being his teammate (did it twice, FYI).
   26. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 04, 2007 at 10:15 PM (#2605072)
So is this thread going to be hijacked by a trivia question? I know the answer but don't want to be the guy that blurts the answer.

Re; El Duque. I was actually pretty confident he would have a good year with the Mets last season because of the strong peripherals he posted with the Mets in 2006, (4.10 FIP ERA) but I have to say I am a little worried about him and would take the over on that ERA.
   27. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 04, 2007 at 10:37 PM (#2605081)
So is this thread going to be hijacked by a trivia question?

karma.
   28. Honkie Kong Posted: November 04, 2007 at 10:41 PM (#2605085)
I guess biggio
   29. TheUFactor Posted: November 04, 2007 at 10:42 PM (#2605086)
Since one of the Mets' five players projected better than a 1b is Alou, that makes it more like four and a half Mets projected to hit better than a 1b once you factor in Alou's yearly 3 months lost to injury. Still, a team could do a lot worse.
   30. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: November 04, 2007 at 10:42 PM (#2605087)
Todd Helton.
   31. Amit Posted: November 04, 2007 at 10:44 PM (#2605088)
glad that's over
   32. DCW3 Posted: November 04, 2007 at 10:59 PM (#2605091)
Yes, Todd Helton, who did it in 2000 and 2003. Only four other players have done it in two or more seasons: Lou Gehrig (seven times), Wade Boggs (four), Babe Ruth (three) and Stan Musial (two).
   33. TheUFactor Posted: November 04, 2007 at 10:59 PM (#2605092)
Regarding Ollie, he's projected to set a career low BB rate, by a hair over 2004. Hard to argue with the projection that he'll give up a shitload of HR, but I'd call that a somewhat optimistic projection.
   34. AROM Posted: November 05, 2007 at 12:37 AM (#2605114)
That Gotay projection is ugly. Maybe the Mets should resign Castillo.


I would advise them not to. 2B is a position where you can go cheap, there are very few outstanding options but no shortage of guys who can play. 2B has probably the least distance between average and replacement level of all the positions.

Mark Kiger might be a better option than Gotay. He's still waiting for his regular season debut, but he's a veteran of the postseason.
   35. AROM Posted: November 05, 2007 at 12:38 AM (#2605116)
One result of this set of projections is I need to look up who the heck Kevin Mulvey is.
   36. AROM Posted: November 05, 2007 at 02:13 AM (#2605151)
He's in the 2007 Baseball America prospect handbook. Fastball sits at 90-93, they say he touches 96 but I have to take a "believe it when I see it" approach to their velocity numbers. Standard assortment of offspeed pitches, slider, curve, change, none are considered great. He was the Mets' 2nd rounder, the first pick they had in the 2006 draft, out of Villanova, which happens to be the college my brother Kevin went to. He's listed at 6'1 175. Nothing about him screams top prospect, we'll see if he gets a chance to start anyway.
   37. Amit Posted: November 05, 2007 at 02:47 AM (#2605158)
Mulvey's never been heralded as a top prospect, but always as a mature, smart pitcher, with 4 major-league caliber pitches. He doesn't walk anybody, so if he can keep the ball in the park he'll be effective. Projects as, at best, a #3.
   38. Sam M. Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:00 AM (#2605163)
Here's what John Manuel had to say in the chat BA did about the Eastern League Top 20 prospects, and why it did NOT include Mulvey, even though he had a very successful season there in 2007 (11-10, 3.32 ERA, 151.2 IP, 145 H, 4 HR, 43 BB, 110 K). The question was, "Were any Mets players [besides Fernando Martinez, who was # 3] considered for the top 20 list?" Manuel's answer:

Kevin Mulvey is the obvious one, and he came close to making it. Several teams scouting Binghamton hard because the Mets were looking to make deals, and they all tried to get Mulvey because he was the No. 2 prospect on the team. He's kind of a lesser version of Balester--keeps the ball down, and is effective when he does tat, but if you grade out his stuff, whereas Balester is average stuff across the board, and maybe some projection left so you say he could be a tick above with one or two pitches, Mulvey kind of is who he is and is fringe-average as opposed to average. On the 20-80 scale, we're talking 45s instead of 50s, 45 command too. He does miss low, so he's not giving up a lot of HRs. One scout in particular questioned whether Mulvey was the kind of guy to handle NYC or not, but you can probably say that for a lot of players. He didn't miss the 20 by much, but I just couldn't find a source to go to bat for him, so he missed.


To me, that actually leaves me more rather than less optimistic than I've been in the past about Mulvey. A guy who keeps the ball down, and whom the scouts just don't like for reasons they can't quite define even though he succeeds at the AA level? I'll take my chances, though my overall expectations remain pretty middling. Let's see what he can do at New Orleans in 2008.
   39. 1k5v3L Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:04 AM (#2605165)
I haven't seen Mets fans so excited about a can't miss pitching prospect since Yusmeiro Petit-mania swept Flushing.
   40. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:04 AM (#2605166)
I wonder if Mulvey is projected to allow an inordinate amount of unearned runs because I really have no idea where that projection is coming from. He allowed quite a few in AA last season but that might be due to the fact that fielders in the minors aren't very good. The only thing that he has done really well in the minors is not allow homers.
   41. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:10 AM (#2605168)
Btw, why does Milledge rate under the average firstbaseman when the projection has him 14 OPS points above average? A lot of double plays? Or is it the poor basestealing?
   42. Hal Chase Headley Lamarr Hoyt Wilhelm (ACE1242) Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:11 AM (#2605170)
#40 -- From his bb-ref page Mulvey doesn't look like any too swift a fielder himself.
   43. 1k5v3L Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:13 AM (#2605171)
why does Milledge rate under the average firstbaseman when the projection has him 14 OPS points above average?


too much bling-bling bringing him down
   44. Amit Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:13 AM (#2605172)
41 - racism
   45. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:15 AM (#2605173)
Well, plugging Mulvey's projected numbers into the fips formula gives me a 3.90-4.10 ERA so unearned runs aren't to be blamed.
   46. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:23 AM (#2605178)
The approximately -5 net stolen bases brings Milledge down ever so slightly below average 1B.
   47. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:24 AM (#2605179)
When I'm on the desktop, I will double-check Mulvey.
   48. Amit Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:26 AM (#2605180)
Perhaps this has been said before, but it'd be nice if we had Heath Bell and Matt Lindstrom.
   49. Sam M. Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:30 AM (#2605185)
Perhaps this has been said before, but it'd be nice if we had Heath Bell and Matt Lindstrom.

Sure, but it'd be even nicer if we had Scott Kazmir. Why go there? At least Omar's balance sheet (unlike Duquette's) is pretty good, so I'm not gonna complain about a couple of trades that backfired. And who knows what may happen with Vargas now that he's had surgery and might get himself healthy down the road?
   50. Amit Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:37 AM (#2605188)
And who knows what may happen with Vargas now that he's had surgery and might get himself healthy down the road?


I'm pretty sure I know.
   51. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2007 at 04:42 AM (#2605208)
I did find an error in Mulvey, though not a big one, which has been corrected. Essentially, since he had less than 2 professional seasons, I was forced to utilize a rough college translation, but I accidentally translated that performance in a Binghamton context.

ZiPS still likes him, though - while it is AA ball, pitchers that have allowed just 5 home runs in 173 professional innings are a rarity. Even Wang's home run allowed rate in the minors was almost twice that.
   52. TheUFactor Posted: November 05, 2007 at 05:36 AM (#2605235)
I figured out why Duque came out so low: the FIP based on those projected peripherals is around 4.65, near his average level of performance the last few years, but a relatively low BABIP brings the projected ERA down. The crazy low BABIP he posted last year is to blame.
   53. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2007 at 05:56 AM (#2605243)
Don't forget, El Duque's career ERA is 0.45 below his FIP, 0.35 below his DIPS ERA, and a .272 career BABIP. The Mets and Shea also project to having a very low "base" BABIP. Remember, I'm not making defense/park neutral projections - DIPS theory and its variants don't just help us attempt to move a pitcher's performance from a specific context to a neutral one, but also enables us to do the reverse.
   54. thetailor Posted: November 05, 2007 at 09:06 AM (#2605277)
Quickies:

Wow, horrible projection for Humber. He was great in the PCL last year - what gives? Was the Mets home park a pitchers park in a hitters league or something? Too lazy to look up the numbers but he was top ten in all the good things.

Sad about the low projection on Endy but know its right.

Would take the over on Joe Smith's ERA, the over on Pedro's innings, the under for Ollie's ERA and like Reyes and Beltran to hit better than projected. How could that '05 still be weighing Beltran down so much?
   55. The Essex Snead Posted: November 05, 2007 at 02:40 PM (#2605329)
Sad about the low projection on Endy but know its right.

That's a lot more PT than I'd expect him to get, though - unless health issues once again ravage the OF, he shouldn't be getting more than 250 PAs, and they should be in situations favorable to him (hopefully).

That Sheehan SI article suggested the Indians trade Peralta to the Cubs, but I'm thinking that he might be someone the Mets should try to pursue (for 2B).
   56. Amit Posted: November 05, 2007 at 03:00 PM (#2605351)
How's Peralta's defense?
   57. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 05, 2007 at 05:38 PM (#2605545)
That's a lot more PT than I'd expect him to get, though -

Bwahhahahaha! "Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors..."
   58. TheUFactor Posted: November 05, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2605584)
That's a lot more PT than I'd expect him to get, though - unless health issues once again ravage the OF, he shouldn't be getting more than 250 PAs, and they should be in situations favorable to him (hopefully).


Given that the LFer is Moises Alou, it is a near certainty that health issues will once again ravage at least one OF spot.
   59. The Essex Snead Posted: November 05, 2007 at 07:16 PM (#2605651)
How's Peralta's defense?

Not sure, but I know there was plenty of talk (among pundit types, at least) that the Indians would be better served to flip-flop Asdrubal Cabrera & Peralta in the field. His play in the ALCS - Jeter-esque range, playing footsie w/ Casey Blake on a mid-range pop-up - definitely wasn't helping his cause. & as I see if, if Cleveland is considering the 2B move w/ Peralta, it'd make sense for the Mets to see if they could do the same w/ him (Carlos Baerga stigma notwithstanding). Not sure who CLE has waiting in the wings, tho.

As for my comment about Endy getting 250+ PAs, it was stated w/ the assumption that ZiPS projected him getting 400+ PAs. I must've been looking @ LoDuca's line by mistake, because ZiPS shows Endy getting 240 PAs, so never mind that.

However, doubting the restorative power of Alou's urea is just plain silly.
   60. The Essex Snead Posted: November 05, 2007 at 07:17 PM (#2605655)
And never mind me not bothering to read the ZiPS disclaimer. Reading on the internet is so Web 1.0.
   61. Win one for Agrippa (haplo53) Posted: November 06, 2007 at 01:04 AM (#2605987)
Given that the LFer is Moises Alou, it is a near certainty that health issues will once again ravage at least one OF spot.


Come on, didn't you hear Omar? Alou's on a "mission."
   62. Amit Posted: November 06, 2007 at 02:51 AM (#2606050)

Come on, didn't you hear Omar? Alou's on a "mission."


Just like Lindstrom.
   63. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 16, 2007 at 04:54 PM (#2617415)
Those Carlos Gomez numbers look pretty ugly.
   64. BenGrieveStillBelieve Posted: February 03, 2008 at 04:57 PM (#2682699)
Check out my blog. Subject: Jose Reyes

http://baseballmind.blogspot.com/

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