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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees

ZiPS sees no reason to believe that the Yankees won’t be one of the top teams in baseball again in 2008.  With one of the top young pitching troikas in Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy, I’m not holding my breath for the Orioles to make a grand charge at a playoff spot.  Losing A-Rod is huge, but the Yankees have enough money to remedy that situation somewhat and the pitching may very well be better if the young starters don’t blow out an arm-part.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Alex Rodriguez       3b 32 .305 .410 .583 159 590 127 180 30 1 44 151 93 132 16 3
Jason Giambi*        dh 37 .241 .398 .482 110 340 58 82 13 0 23 77 75 86 0 0
Bobby Abreu*        rf 34 .284 .391 .445 156 573 106 163 37 2 17 111 99 117 22 7
Hideki Matsui*        lf 34 .290 .368 .476 142 544 95 158 33 4 20 106 67 71 2 2
Jorge Posada#        c   36 .283 .380 .447 133 452 67 128 29 0 15 78 66 92 2 0
Derek Jeter         ss 34 .308 .386 .435 151 616 106 190 33 3 13 83 66 106 15 5
AVERAGE 1B/DH—————1b——.279 .357 .475—————————————————————
Robinson Cano*        2b 25 .308 .349 .488 149 584 87 180 41 5 18 98 34 73 3 4
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.277 .349 .456—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.277 .346 .458—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.274 .343 .449—————————————————————
Wilson Betemit#      3b 26 .259 .335 .462 131 301 42 78 17 1 14 46 34 86 1 1
Melky Cabrera#        cf 23 .286 .352 .419 159 580 83 166 29 6 12 89 59 65 13 4
Doug Mientkiewicz*    1b 34 .272 .356 .412 82 250 33 68 15 1 6 35 29 41 0 0
Johnny Damon*        cf 34 .279 .348 .408 130 519 93 145 25 3 12 67 54 73 17 4
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.272 .336 .425—————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.276 .337 .414—————————————————————
Noah Hall           lf 31 .260 .345 .407 102 339 47 88 19 2 9 46 36 58 7 4
Shelley Duncan       1b 28 .242 .311 .469 117 405 45 98 18 1 24 74 38 103 1 2
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.274 .329 .407—————————————————————
Erubiel Durazo*      dh 34 .252 .347 .366 39 131 12 33 6 0 3 15 18 28 0 0
AVERAGE C———————- c——.260 .321 .403—————————————————————
Jose Cruz Jr.#        rf 34 .236 .333 .376 91 271 38 64 15 1 7 29 39 69 3 1
Brett Gardner*        cf 24 .269 .347 .331 113 417 73 112 15 4 1 27 49 87 28 9
Andy Cannizaro       2b 29 .255 .320 .341 107 349 50 89 21 0 3 31 29 47 3 2
Bronson Sardinha*      rf 25 .234 .299 .372 128 449 47 105 19 2 13 60 40 105 4 2
Kevin Reese*        lf 30 .238 .310 .356 102 382 46 91 17 2 8 45 34 77 5 3
Eric Duncan*        1b 23 .223 .290 .389 109 386 30 86 23 1 13 54 34 79 1 2
Mike Kinkade         3b 35 .240 .307 .341 87 296 41 71 16 1 4 33 17 55 3 2
Angel Chavez         3b 26 .251 .286 .376 123 439 48 110 20 1 11 62 19 85 5 2
Alberto Gonzalez       ss 25 .261 .306 .340 125 418 51 109 19 4 2 40 22 47 5 4
Austin Jackson       cf 21 .240 .296 .342 123 450 56 108 21 2 7 38 32 127 18 10  
Juan Miranda*        1b 25 .204 .278 .354 117 407 34 83 24 2 11 71 33 112 1 1
Jose Tabata         rf 19 .251 .302 .314 96 350 35 88 13 0 3 38 18 76 7 5
Jose Molina         c   33 .242 .275 .340 71 194 17 47 10 0 3 23   8 44 2 0
Mitchell Hilligoss*    3b 23 .248 .283 .316 113 424 49 105 18 1 3 35 19 62 15 6
Jamal Strong         cf 29 .224 .305 .273 97 304 38 68 8 2 1 21 30 54 7 3
Raul Chavez         c   35 .199 .232 .252 70 226 15 45 9 0 1 19   6 36 1 0

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Rodriguez               Av        
Giambi*            Pr            
Abreu*                        Fr
Matsui*                    Fr    
Posada#        Fr                
Jeter                   Pr      
Cano*              Vg          
Betemit#            Fr Av Pr      
Cabrera#                  Vg Vg Vg
Mientkiewicz*        Av            
Damon*            Av       Av Av  
Hall                     Vg   Fr
Duncan             Av       Av   Av
Durazo*            Pr            
Cruz#                    Vg Pr Vg
Gardner*                  Vg Vg  
Cannizaro             Av Av Fr      
Sardinha*                  Fr   Fr
Reese*                    Av Fr Fr
Duncan*            Av   Pr        
Kinkade           Av   Pr   Fr   Fr
Chavez               Fr Av Fr      
Gonzalez             Vg   Av      
Jackson                     Av
Miranda*          Fr            
Tabata                         Fr
Molina         Av                
Hilligoss*              Av Fr      
Strong                     Av Fr Av
Chavez         Vg   Fr   Fr        

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight - Melky Cabrera
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .306 .376 .464 162 591 96 181 34 7 15 108 66 59 17 3
Mean         .286 .352 .419 159 580 83 166 29 6 12 89 59 65 13 4  
Pessimistic (15%) .260 .321 .358 117 427 52 111 18 3 6 50 38 53 6 4

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Bernie Williams, Coco Crisp

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Mariano Rivera         38   2.40   8   1 67   0   75.0   65   20   3   14   66
Roger Clemens         45   3.59 10   6 25 25   148.0 144   59 13   43 101
Chris Britton         25   3.69   4   2 56   0   78.0   74   32   9   22   67
Philip Hughes         22   3.70 12   5 26 26   141.0 136   58 13   40 106
Chien-Ming Wang       27   3.91 15   8 30 30   200.0 213   87 13   53   87
Luis Vizcaino         33   3.93   6   4 72   0   71.0   67   31   6   33   55
Kyle Farnsworth       32   4.02   3   1 69   0   65.0   60   29   9   27   64
Andy Pettitte*        36   4.06 16   9 35 33   213.0 228   96 20   62 141
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.21———————————————————————-
Ian Kennedy           23   4.38   9   7 27 26   148.0 158   72 16   42   94
Ron Villone*          38   4.43   3   2 62   0   67.0   65   33   7   35   53
Joba Chamberlain       22   4.43   9   8 24 24   134.0 136   66 19   33 121
Kevin Whelan         24   4.50   5   3 47   6   78.0   77   39   9   39   60
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.57———————————————————————-
T.J. Beam           27   4.61   5   4 50   1   82.0   86   42 10   28   62
Mike Mussina         39   4.74 11 10 30 29   171.0 195   90 21   41 112
Edwar Ramirez         27   4.78   3   2 49   0   64.0   64   34 11   27   65
Humberto Sanchez       25   4.87   8   7 19 18   109.0 117   59 14   45   80
Carl Pavano           32   4.94   4   4 14 14   82.0   94   45 13   14   48
Charlie Manning*      29   5.09   4   5 48   1   76.0   80   43 10   39   52
Darrell Rasner         27   5.13   4   6 23 19   114.0 135   65 15   27   54
Jose Veras           27   5.16   4   4 54   0   61.0   67   35   9   25   41
Kei Igawa*          28   5.20   9 10 27 26   168.0 188   97 29   53 114
Sean Henn*          27   5.30   5   6 32 12   90.0 101   53 11   43   55
Brian Bruney         26   5.31   3   4 62   0   61.0   62   36   8   37   48
Ross Ohlendorf         25   5.33   7   9 27 23   162.0 198   96 24   42   81
Matt DeSalvo         27   5.39   7   9 26 25   137.0 148   82 16   81   82
Ben Kozlowski*        27   5.54   5   6 35 15   117.0 136   72 20   44   66
Jeffrey Marquez       23   5.62   9 12 25 25   141.0 175   88 22   37   63
Alan Horne           25   5.63   7 10 28 28   147.0 170   92 23   62   97
Jeff Karstens         25   5.68   9 11 28 26   160.0 190 101 30   49   91
Chase Wright*        25   5.98   7 11 32 23   149.0 177   99 27   69   69
Steven Jackson         26   6.00   6 10 27 22   147.0 186   98 24   55   61
Tyler Clippard         23   6.18   7 12 28 28   147.0 173 101 33   62   95

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Chien-Ming Wang
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.18 20   6 34 34 229 223   81 11   51 120
Mean           3.91 15   8 30 30 200 213   87 13   53   87  
Pessimistic (15%)  4.67 10   9 25 25 162 186   84 14   51   63

Top Near-Age Comps: Danny Cox, Dock Ellis

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Nationals Projections

Blue Jays Projections

Rangers Projections

Rays Projections

Cardinals Projections

Mariners Projections

Giants Projections

Padres Projections

Pirates Projections

Phillies Projections

A’s Projections

Yankees Projections

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 31, 2007 at 05:18 PM | 122 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: November 01, 2007 at 04:01 PM (#2602592)
292/343/477, specifically... more than half of the plate appearances at AA, the rest at AAA... and this projects to him doing 314/346/489 in the majors... how, exactly? Now of course, if you wanna argue that his minor league stats don't matter at this point, then that's a different story, and IMO, an exceedingly sensible one. But I am really not seeing where you're getting it from that his minor league stats predicted he'd be this type of MLB player. I don't know how to phrase this any other way, but, the major leagues are a higher level of competition than AA or AAA.

I was too lazy to add up the numbers, so thanks for that, actually. The other factors I'm considering in reaching my conclusion are that 1.) he was playing in pitcher's parks in pitcher's leagues 2.) those numbers are dragged down by an out of line, for him, BABIP during his first taste of AAA and 3.) He hit about the same or a little better in the DWL during that stretch as well. Yes, the major leagues are a higher level of competition, but I expect players to also get better as they make the jump to the major leagues and that in addition to everything I said before makes me think what Cano is doing isn't completely out of line with his minor league performance. Here's what I said in April '05 before he lit the world on fire at AAA:

...[Cano[ looks like a future .285-.300 big league hitter...I see Cano’s home run ceiling as 25 with about 15-20 as the expected seasonal total...prime years in the .290/.350/.470 (AVG/OBP/SLG) range...
   102. Mike Green Posted: November 01, 2007 at 04:11 PM (#2602615)
"When the ball is hit in play Jeter is usually the last Yankee IF to react. Placing him at 3B could actually put his life at risk."

...and your point is? :)

Actually, he's got the arm to play a deep third base. His weakest point defensively as a shortstop is the step and a dive or a step and a wave on the ball up the middle. That is a huge, huge deal. A step and a dive for a third baseman on the ball in the hole is not great, but much better than it is for a shortstop (because it happens less often and there is less ground to cover).
   103. Loren F. Posted: November 01, 2007 at 04:15 PM (#2602622)
Jeter would be an awful 3B. But that's moot, because he's staying at SS at least through 2010, which is the extent of his current contract. If Honus Wagner came back from the dead next month, got himself into his 26-year-old shape, and signed with the Yankees, he'd be playing 3B of OF.

So the 3B options for the Yankees are:
<u>A-Rod</u>: Unlikely but not impossible at this point.
<u>Betemit</u>: So hard to project. If he put up his ZiPS numbers and had a decent glove, he'd be satisfactory. But I'm not sure how confident I am he'll make his ZiPS numbers, as that projected SLG looks 20 points too high to start.
<u>Lowell</u>: I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees offered him four years while Boston offered him three years, although odds are NYY would regret the final two years of that deal. And since it's not my money, I don't care that New York would likely pay him .324/.378/.501 money for .275/.340/.460 production or something in that neighborhood.

Right now, 3B looks like the biggest question mark (followed closely by just how well the Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy young guns will actually perform).
   104. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 01, 2007 at 04:15 PM (#2602623)
Ensberg and no idea what to do about 1B.

Mike Lamb.
   105. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: November 01, 2007 at 04:19 PM (#2602627)
His weakest point defensively as a shortstop is the step and a dive or a step and a wave on the ball up the middle. That is a huge, huge deal. A step and a dive for a third baseman on the ball in the hole is not great, but much better than it is for a shortstop (because it happens less often and there is less ground to cover).

And this would be exasperated by the fact that he has less time now before he can register where the ball is going and take that first step before diving. So, no, I don't think he would be any more effective at 3B.
   106. aleskel Posted: November 01, 2007 at 04:25 PM (#2602639)
exasperated

YOU would be exasperated. The situation would be exacerbated
   107. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: November 01, 2007 at 04:26 PM (#2602642)
Ensberg and no idea what to do about 1B.

Mike Lamb.


I should add: if Betemit can't hack it as a near-everyday player, then he goes back to the utility role, Lamb and Ensberg share 3B, and you try to find another lefthanded hitting 1B.
   108. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: November 01, 2007 at 04:28 PM (#2602647)
aleskel, thanks.
   109. AROM Posted: November 01, 2007 at 04:35 PM (#2602657)
Over the last 2 years Betemit has one full season's worth of MLB playing time.

He's hit 250/329/463, 613 AB, 35 2b, 32 HR, 74 BB. Also a worrisome 184 strikeouts. That's decent production and he should get better if they give him the job, where Lowell is virtually guaranteed to get worse, as he's old and never hit .300 before let alone .320.
   110. HowardMegdal Posted: November 01, 2007 at 04:52 PM (#2602679)
I do think he's capable of that line you posted (OBP is a little high, I'll be surprised if he ever puts up a .390 OBP) and Zips seems to agree that he has the potential at least to put up an MVP type season.

Really? He already hit .342 in a season, he's showing improved patience, he had a .396 OBP in the second half this past season!


I would be giddy if Melky put up that line.


You don't think he approaches that?

As for Betemit, I think it is reasonable to expect league average production, with a decent chance he tops that. I think, considering you already have him and he's entering his age-26 season, that makes him a much better 2008 option than Mike Lowell, whose luck-based BA is almost certain to come down, making him more of a league-average offensive 3B even with no decline in skill.
   111. AROM Posted: November 01, 2007 at 05:00 PM (#2602696)
I'll take Lowell for 2008. For 2009 and beyond I'd have to say Betemit. Consider their relative cost - both in contract and in surrendering draft picks to your hated rivals - and I think its a no-brainer.
   112. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: November 01, 2007 at 05:00 PM (#2602697)
You don't think he approaches that?

He did that, or something close to it, for a while this season, but he was terrible down the stretch, so...I think people are hedging their bets. I would too. That looks like a reach for him.
   113. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: November 02, 2007 at 11:11 AM (#2603176)
Thanks, Dan.
   114. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: November 02, 2007 at 11:20 AM (#2603179)
He did that, or something close to it, for a while this season, but he was terrible down the stretch, so...I think people are hedging their bets. I would too. That looks like a reach for him.
Melky had a bizarre season:

April: .200/.238/.213 (.451)
May-August: .314/.369/.473 (.842)
September: .180/.236/.220 (.456)

Basically he was total garbage at the beginning and end of the season but in the middle was one of the best CF in the league. I really have no idea what--if anything--that means but it sure is weird.
   115. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: November 02, 2007 at 11:36 AM (#2603182)
One thing I do know is that I would like to see Melky stop bunting all the time.
   116. zoobird Posted: November 02, 2007 at 11:38 AM (#2603183)
Dan, one way that I think makes sens to show confidence would be OPS gap, betweem optimistic and pessimistic projection.


By percentage, or just 'raw' difference?

Another way might be expected likelihood of actual OPS being within X% (I'd suggest 5%) of projection.
   117. Walt Davis Posted: November 02, 2007 at 09:31 PM (#2603992)
OPS gap would work. Or, if the interval isn't necessarily symmetric, a + and - number for optimistic/pessimistic OPS. Or just 3 OPS numbers. Or potentially use something like RC/27 to get us away from OPS. With pitchers, I don't know if we have anything really other than ERA with the same sort of display options as OPS.

I suppose the big part of the challenge is how to present such that uncertainty due to small sample size is distinguished from uncertainty due to whatever other factors influence that range. This is especially true on the pitching side where reliever performance bounces all over the place because they're pitching just 60-70 IP a year. Maybe simply don't present it for players where the sample sizes are too small to have much confidence.
   118. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 05, 2007 at 01:40 AM (#2605138)
Request for Scott Patterson, if you don't mind, Dan.
   119. Cutter Posted: November 05, 2007 at 06:23 AM (#2605250)
Basically he was total garbage at the beginning and end of the season but in the middle was one of the best CF in the league. I really have no idea what--if anything--that means but it sure is weird.

Melky play well in warm weather.
   120. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 05, 2007 at 06:43 AM (#2605254)

Melky play well in warm weather.


New York warm in September. Melky like.
   121. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 04, 2007 at 03:56 AM (#2633146)
Moot now, but - no Andy Phillips?
   122. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 04, 2007 at 04:05 AM (#2633156)
I'll take the over on Joba, Jeter, and Posada. I'll take the under on Melky.
   123. RollingWave Posted: January 06, 2008 at 08:16 AM (#2661557)
Nice projection, that lineup should be ridiculas again in 08. particularly if they manage to squeeze anything out of Giambi and the 1B spot.

On Cano. I think it's fair to say that he isn't going to get significantly better. in the sense that nothing is going to suddenly comeup that's completely out of line of what he is now. he's not going to suddenly start swiping bags (we all know that) he's not going to become some onbase machine and he's not going to hit 40 bombs.

what he will (hopefully) do though

1. continue to hit for high average and simply rack up hits
2. hopefully having some of his double / triples turn into HRs
3. have minor improvements in walk rate thx to experience and rising slugging.

The Jeter comp is pretty fair. one has to realize that Cano's current number stack up extremely well against EVERY modern hall of fame 2B at the similar age season ..count or rate (only Almoar is significantly ahead of him in terms of hits at the same age. and Alomar reached the majors as a teenager, that's right, he's hit pace is similar / better than Molitor / Morgan / Sandberg / Carew .. let alone late starters Biggio / Kent ), it's almost impossible to be better than he is now as a 24 year old 2B.
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