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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies aren’t a hard team to get a handle on.  Impressive front-line talent of Howard, Utley, Burrell, Rollins, and Hamels, and very poor depth.  The team unfortunately has let a couple of gaping holes just hang out there because of their impressive front-line talent, most notably giving actually having Abraham Nunez and Jose Mesa play baseball.  The front-line talent plus an excellent season by Rowand (and a good one by Victorino thanks to some swanky defense in right) was enough to give the team a great offense and make a final charge to the playoffs despite a rather bad pitching staff.  There’s not much hope on the farm, either - it’s bone dry and there’s very little organizational depth anywhere.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Ryan Howard*        1b 28 .294 .406 .622 149 537 97 158 26 0 50 148 100 177 0 0
Chase Utley*        2b 29 .299 .381 .515 147 582 109 174 40 4 26 108 62 104 12 3
Pat Burrell         lf 31 .249 .377 .479 141 461 71 115 22 0 28 103 94 128 0 0
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.282 .360 .485—————————————————————
Jimmy Rollins#        ss 29 .282 .336 .485 159 695 128 196 40 13 25 87 53 82 33 5
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.281 .352 .466—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.280 .349 .468—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.277 .346 .458—————————————————————
Jayson Werth         rf 29 .260 .359 .417 103 319 51 83 16 2 10 52 46 102 8 2
Aaron Rowand         cf 30 .276 .339 .444 143 536 80 148 35 2 17 73 34 106 7 3
Shane Victorino#      rf 27 .277 .336 .440 142 452 78 125 23 6 13 57 33 63 20 4
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.275 .339 .435—————————————————————
Carlos Ruiz         c   29 .273 .341 .425 117 388 42 106 25 2 10 60 36 52 3 1
Tadahito Iguchi       2b 33 .274 .351 .400 127 475 72 130 24 3 10 55 55 98 9 3
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.279 .340 .419—————————————————————
Greg Dobbs*          3b 29 .283 .337 .426 124 343 44 97 18 2 9 54 27 55 5 3
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.277 .332 .412—————————————————————
Wes Helms           3b 32 .265 .324 .420 108 226 21 60 15 1 6 36 17 49 0 0
Rod Barajas         c   32 .253 .308 .425 92 308 39 78 17 0 12 40 21 53 0 0
AVERAGE C———————- c——.263 .324 .414—————————————————————
T.J. Bohn           rf 28 .254 .311 .376 101 346 46 88 19 1 7 37 26 78 10 4
Jason Jaramillo#      c   25 .248 .313 .363 117 411 40 102 19 2 8 53 37 76 0 1
Jeremy Slayden*      rf 25 .240 .301 .374 103 358 38 86 20 2 8 50 28 91 2 1
Michael Costanzo*      3b 24 .229 .304 .373 134 475 46 109 24 1 14 61 45 153 0 1
Pete LaForest*        c   30 .214 .298 .380 100 313 31 67 13 0 13 42 36 110 1 1
Brennan King         3b 27 .248 .296 .375 110 403 36 100 19 1 10 48 25 73 1 0
Pedro Swann*        rf 37 .235 .285 .374 85 289 31 68 17 1 7 37 18 78 2 1
Michael Garciaparra     ss 25 .246 .321 .318 85 280 35 69 9 1 3 25 25 53 4 3
Michael Bourn*        lf 25 .249 .310 .330 136 458 71 114 13 6 4 34 38 100 22 8
Dusty Wathan         1b 34 .238 .312 .324 69 210 21 50 9 0 3 23 15 42 0 0
Chris Coste         c   35 .239 .285 .366 98 331 36 79 15 0 9 50 17 61 0 1
Juan Tejeda         1b 26 .236 .288 .365 105 351 33 83 16 1 9 52 23 68 1 2
Matt Padgett*        rf 30 .235 .283 .363 89 306 26 72 16 1 7 34 19 93 0 0
Chris Roberson       cf 28 .256 .298 .345 120 403 54 103 17 2 5 38 22 71 11 6
Jim Rushford*        lf 34 .241 .300 .319 102 348 28 84 18 0 3 36 24 34 1 0
Javon Moran         cf 25 .255 .309 .327 84 321 46 82 13 2 2 15 21 65 12 9
Gookie Dawkins       2b 29 .242 .289 .349 102 355 38 86 18 1 6 34 22 79 5 4
Mike Spidale         lf 26 .251 .295 .305 100 371 43 93 11 3 1 26 18 41 11 4
Abraham Nunez#        3b 32 .232 .310 .281 115 285 36 66 9 1 1 26 30 49 1 0
Danny Sandoval       ss 29 .248 .281 .311 108 367 31 91 14 0 3 34 14 49 3 2
Greg Golson         cf 22 .217 .245 .330 123 488 52 106 21 2 10 42 15 165 16 7

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Howard*            Fr            
Utley*            Vg Vg          
Burrell                   Fr    
Rollins#                Av      
Werth                     Av   Vg
Rowand                       Av  
Victorino#                  Vg Av Ex
Ruiz           Fr                
Iguchi               Av          
Dobbs*            Av   Pr   Fr   Fr
Helms             Av   Fr        
Barajas         Av                
Bohn                     Vg Fr Vg
Jaramillo#      Vg                
Slayden*                  Av   Av
Costanzo*              Av        
LaForest*      Av   Av   Fr        
King                 Av        
Swann*                    Pr   Pr
Garciaparra           Av   Fr      
Bourn*                    Vg Av Vg
Wathan         Av   Av            
Coste         Pr   Av            
Tejeda             Pr            
Padgett*          Av       Fr   Pr
Roberson                   Av Av Av
Rushford*          Fr       Fr   Fr
Moran                     Av Av Av
Dawkins             Vg Av Pr      
Spidale                   Vg Av Vg
Nunez#              Av Vg Av      
Sandoval             Av Av Av      
Golson                       Av Av    

Player Spotlight - Chase Utley
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .325 .413 .588 154 609 133 198 49 6 33 141 71 99 14 2  
Mean         .299 .381 .515 147 582 109 174 40 4 26 108 62 104 12 3
Pessimistic (15%) .278 .350 .461 129 510 84 142 32 2 19 77 50 100 7 3

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Charlie Gehringer, Lou Whitaker

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Brett Myers           27   3.31   5   3 80   0   98.0   86   36 13   30 107
Tom Gordon           40   3.60   5   2 60   0   60.0   54   24   8   20   60
Cole Hamels*          24   3.66 14   7 31 31   192.0 178   78 24   50 185
Geoff Geary           31   3.94   5   3 70   0   89.0   95   39   8   24   57
Mike Zagurski*        25   4.00   4   2 45   0   63.0   63   28   5   24   51
J.C. Romero*          32   4.17   3   2 70   0   54.0   51   25   5   36   42
Julio Mateo           30   4.17   5   4 51   0   69.0   73   32 10   15   43
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.28———————————————————————-
Freddy Garcia         32   4.41 11   9 29 29   190.0 202   93 24   48 138
Clay Condrey         32   4.44   4   3 52   0   73.0   83   36   6   22   35
Ryan Madson           27   4.44   3   4 65   0   79.0   83   39 10   31   61
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.69———————————————————————-
Kyle Lohse           29   4.78 10 10 34 29   177.0 197   94 22   54 109
Jon Lieber           38   4.85 10 11 27 27   165.0 188   89 26   34 104
Kyle Kendrick         23   4.91 12 12 31 31   196.0 220 107 27   50   94
Jamie Moyer*          45   4.96 11 12 31 31   196.0 221 108 29   59 117
Fabio Castro*        23   5.02   5   5 43   8   86.0   87   48 13   42   64
Yoel Hernandez         28   5.03   4   4 43   0   59.0   65   33   7   25   43
Matt Smith*          29   5.16   3   3 45   4   68.0   68   39 11   36   53
Francisco Rosario       27   5.19   3   4 32 13   85.0   92   49 14   35   68
Antonio Alfonseca       36   5.23   2   3 50   0   43.0   51   25   3   23   19
Jose Mesa           42   5.40   2   3 59   0   55.0   61   33   9   29   31
Joshua Outman*        23   5.41   8 12 28 27   163.0 180   98 22   86 113
John Ennis           28   5.46   3   5 45   5   84.0   97   51 14   32   63
Jason Anderson         29   5.47   3   4 53   1   74.0   85   45 12   27   49
Ryan Cameron         30   5.51   2   4 53   2   80.0   87   49 13   39   62
Adam Eaton           30   5.53   8 11 29 28   153.0 175   94 23   61   95
Scott Mathieson       24   5.59   6 10 26 26   153.0 171   95 31   53 116
J.D. Durbin           26   5.59   6   8 26 21   124.0 137   77 18   60   86
Landon Jacobsen       29   5.60   8 11 26 24   143.0 171   89 17   67   59
James Happ*          25   5.61   6   9 26 25   138.0 154   86 24   59 103
Bubba Nelson         26   5.85   5   7 45   9   97.0 110   63 19   46   67
Andrew Carpenter       23   5.92   9 14 27 24   152.0 185 100 31   45   86
Carlos Carrasco       21   6.00   7 13 29 28   159.0 185 106 30   75   86
Joe Bisenius         25   6.12   4   6 49   1   78.0   90   53 15   39   54
Eude Brito*          29   6.15   5   9 30 20   120.0 142   82 23   61   70
Anderson Garcia       27   6.19   3   7 51   1   80.0   99   55 15   25   45
Zach Segovia         25   6.29   7 14 26 26   156.0 201 109 29   51   62
Matt Childers         29   6.29   3   7 32 14   103.0 130   72 21   31   56

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Cole Hamels
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  2.93 18   5 34 34 221 186   72 21   52 231
Mean           3.66 14   7 31 31 192 178   78 24   50 185
Pessimistic (15%)  4.68   9   9 26 26 154 158   80 25   49 140

Top Near-Age Comps:  Johnny Podres, Vida Blue

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 24, 2007 at 11:56 PM | 62 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: October 25, 2007 at 12:34 AM (#2592169)
So is Brett Myers definitely going to be a closer and not a starter going forward?

Also, how many teams have a player with the big club appear so far down the ZiPS list? Abraham Nunez is really, really bad.
   2. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 25, 2007 at 12:41 AM (#2592185)
That's right, the man who is now and forever listed as the 2007 Phillies' 3B on BB-Ref.com, and was just barely beaten out for that position in 2006 as well, is projected to have a worse 2008 than Gookie Dawkins, Pedro Swann, and Mike "Crudale" Spidale. Why is it that people keep rolling their eyes when I say that Pedro Feliz would be a significant upgrade?

Also it's great to see the Alfomesa twins right next to each other. Though somewhat less great to see them projected with better ERAs than every single one of the Phillies' pitching prospects who are supposedly very close to the majors.

Gotta go for now...going to look at this again tomorrow.
   3. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 25, 2007 at 12:42 AM (#2592189)
every single one of the Phillies' pitching prospects who are supposedly very close to the majors

Also I did not realize that Happ, Bisenius and Segovia were already 25. Well, at least we didn't trade Gio Gonzalez's entire career for one year of a guy who had no value at all and whose career might be over.

Model Dictator Fabio Castro to the rotation?
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 25, 2007 at 12:47 AM (#2592208)
I'll change the Myers projection if it looks like he's going to start again.
   5. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:05 AM (#2592258)
OK, I looked at it a little more. I'm expecting Garcia, Lieber, and Lohse to not be back with the team.

So, those projected to be starters if they are in the majors:

<pre>
Name   Age ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN H   ER  HR   BB K 
Cole Hamels
*  24   3.66  14   7  31  31   192.0  178   78  24   50  185 
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER 
------ 4.28 ----------------------------------------------- 
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.69 -----------------------------------------------
Kyle Kendrick 23   4.91  12  12  31  31   196.0  220  107  27   50   94 
Jamie Moyer
*  45   4.96  11  12  31  31   196.0  221  108  29   59  117 
Joshua Outman
*   23   5.41   8  12  28  27   163.0  180   98  22   86  113 
Adam Eaton 30   5.53   8  11  29  28   153.0  175   94  23   61   95 
Scott Mathieson  24   5.59   6  10  26  26   153.0  171   95  31   53  116 
J
.DDurbin   26   5.59   6   8  26  21   124.0  137   77  18   60   86 
Landon Jacobsen  29   5.60   8  11  26  24   143.0  171   89  17   67   59 
James Happ
*   25   5.61   6   9  26  25   138.0  154   86  24   59  103 
Andrew Carpenter 23   5.92   9  14  27  24   152.0  185  100  31   45   86 
Carlos Carrasco  21   6.00   7  13  29  28   159.0  185  106  30   75   86 
Zach Segovia  25   6.29   7  14  26  26   156.0  201  109  29   51   62 
</pre


Yeah, that might be a problem.

On the other hand, I don't know why Mathieson is predicted to have such a bad ERA.
   6. Dolf Lucky Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:30 AM (#2592320)
Speaking of Myers, how do people familiar with DMB expect players like him (or Joba for another possible example) to be rated? As relievers only, or as starters/relievers with poor stamina?
   7. 100 Years is Nothing Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:23 AM (#2592455)
I'd expect both to be listerd as starters/relievers
   8. AROM Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:23 AM (#2592457)
The starters look bretty bad, but at least Josh Outman has a much better pitching name than Grant Balfour.
   9. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: October 25, 2007 at 04:00 AM (#2592703)
In my experience, players who do not start are typically listed by DMB as relievers only. Likewise, starters with one or zero relief appearances are usually listed as starters only.

On the projection disk, they'll get both.
   10. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: October 25, 2007 at 04:01 AM (#2592706)
Some real nice frontline talent in Philly. Shame about the depth, but stars can take you a long way.
   11. I can't believe we're playing Francoeur(KevinHess) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 04:11 AM (#2592732)
Not that it's out of line with reality, but wow... a mean projection of 50 home runs!
   12. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 25, 2007 at 04:21 AM (#2592747)
Aaron Rowand cf 30 .276 .339 .444

It surprises me somewhat to learn that although this projection is far below what he accomplished in 2007 and 2004, it's actually better than what he accomplished in any of the other 5 years of his career.

And with that I note that 2004 and 2007 were the two seasons after which he signed new contracts.

And with that I predict that he will be significantly overpaid for his performance in the next three or four years.
   13. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 25, 2007 at 04:24 AM (#2592752)
that should be "in each of the next three or four years".
   14. dr. bleachers Posted: October 25, 2007 at 05:31 AM (#2592809)
Does anyone know where I can find career leaders in on-contact BA? Even though it fits with his career average, a mean projection of .440 for Howard seems optimistic.
   15. St.Philly Posted: October 25, 2007 at 07:07 AM (#2592829)
Of course, the nice thing about the frontline stars is that if you get a little lucky at dumpster diving, like picking up Morgan Ensberg for 3B and he has a bounce back year, you can veer into Big Red machine territory.

A little off the wall request, does that Zips contraption give you any kind of numbers for Greg Jacobs, the pitcher turned outfielder, who hit very well at Reading last season. If Rowand is gone, I'd like the Phils to have a Chris Duncan/Ryan Church type guy to throw into the mix with Victorino and Werth in CF-RF and while Jacobs might be a long shot, I'm curious what the numbers say.
   16. Computers are smart Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:48 PM (#2592927)
Does anyone know where I can find career leaders in on-contact BA?


subscribe to http://www.baseball-reference.com/

You can see individual career at Fangraph and Howard has a career .353 BABIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2154&position=1B
   17. dr. bleachers Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:24 PM (#2592989)
I know fangraphs has BABIP. How useful is it going to be for Howard since 1/3 of his hits are homers? I don't see either on the PI.
   18. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:43 PM (#2593015)
There were more fertile farms than this in Oklahoma during the Dust Bowl days.
   19. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:47 PM (#2593024)
Of course, the nice thing about the frontline stars is that if you get a little lucky at dumpster diving, like picking up Morgan Ensberg for 3B and he has a bounce back year, you can veer into Big Red machine territory.

Or even getting lucky with your existing players. If Wes Helms had hit in 2007 like he'd hit in 2006, the Phillies would have won comfortably. Ditto if the bullpen had been a strength, which is often a complete crapshoot.
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:48 PM (#2593028)
That seems kinda optimistic for Lohse in Citizens Bank Ballpark to me. Man, is he going to get overpaid. Any ideas on what his numbers would be if he went back to the AL?
   21. Bad Doctor Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:01 PM (#2593042)
Aaron Rowand cf 30 .276 .339 .444

Reading that line, you can almost hear the splash of cold water.

And with that I note that 2004 and 2007 were the two seasons after which he signed new contracts.

Amazing ... you won't hear much about that in the media, will you? If it were J.D. Drew though ...

Wow, those are some bad starting options. I can't see how they can keep Myers in the pen, unless they know something health-wise that would prevent him from starting.
   22. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:06 PM (#2593048)
How are those bad starting options? I see six starters, plus Myers, all of whom are better than, or within a third of a run of, the league average. Then there's Castro, who has significant upside. It's not top-of-the-league quality, but they're not in desperate shape.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:06 PM (#2593049)
I should note that the above BABIP for Howard is .344.
   24. Honkie Kong Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:09 PM (#2593052)
Sign Mariano and move Myers back to the rotation?

If you are the Phillies GM, do you offer Howard a contract to buy out his arb and FA years, or just pay him year by year for arb, and bet that he doesn't age too well.
With their barren system, the Phillies window of opportunity doesn't look too big, so I might do the latter and cash Howard in for some premo prospects in a year or two.
   25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:10 PM (#2593053)
I don't think JD Durbin and JC Romero should be allowed to play for the same team. It's too confusing.
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:10 PM (#2593054)
How are those bad starting options? I see six starters, plus Myers, all of whom are better than, or within a third of a run of, the league average.

The problem is that of those 6, Garcia won't be back and will miss at least another half a season with a rather serious labrum tear, and neither Lieber or Lohse are expected back. And a 4th one turns 45 in a month.
   27. Craig in MN Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:21 PM (#2593065)
I don't think JD Durbin and JC Romero should be allowed to play for the same team. It's too confusing.

It's not that confusing....one's a left handed head-case who doesn't pitch well, and one is a right handed head-case who doesn't pitch well.
   28. Smitty* Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:29 PM (#2593074)
Wow, Rowand and Victorino are practically the same person!
   29. Bad Doctor Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:36 PM (#2593083)
The problem is that of those 6, Garcia won't be back and will miss at least another half a season with a rather serious labrum tear, and neither Lieber or Lohse are expected back. And a 4th one turns 45 in a month.

Dan seems to be distancing himself from his "age 45" adjustment algorithm. He must've watched Moyer pitch in the second half.

I don't think JD Durbin and JC Romero should be allowed to play for the same team. It's too confusing.

Think of the fun when J.A. Happ comes up! Of course, if you're like me, you constantly call him A.J. Happ ... so I guess being perpetually confused can help reduce the confusion, sort of.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:42 PM (#2593089)
Rowand and Victorino do have slightly different upsides and downsides. OK, not really.

Optimistic
Rowand: 301/374/500
Victorino: 297/365/496

Pessimistic
Rowand: 259/312/398
Victorino: 253/305/382
   31. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:44 PM (#2593093)
How are those bad starting options? I see six starters, plus Myers, all of whom are better than, or within a third of a run of, the league average.

You're disregarding my "assuming Garcia, Lieber and Lohse leave". That leaves three such starters. One of whom is 45 and falls off a cliff after 70 pitches.
   32. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:45 PM (#2593095)
I don't think JD Durbin and JC Romero should be allowed to play for the same team. It's too confusing.

Just imagine if Dan had written "J.A. Happ", which is what I've always read, instead of "James Happ"!
   33. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:48 PM (#2593102)
Of course, if you're like me, you constantly call him A.J. Happ ... so I guess being perpetually confused can help reduce the confusion, sort of.

Make sure that you don't think of this guy, either.
   34. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 25, 2007 at 04:00 PM (#2593123)
Did anyone ever find any athletes with F.J. or I.J? I know we got from A to M with only those 2 missing.
   35. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 25, 2007 at 04:13 PM (#2593145)
There's F.P. Santangelo, and I.P. Freely.
   36. Kyle S Posted: October 25, 2007 at 04:42 PM (#2593178)
Kilkenny, just use the Lahman db for that. I assume the formula for on-contact BA is H/AB-SO, right?

Here's what I get, career for seasons after 1945 min 500 ABs (this doesn't include 2007 data):

playerID_ ConAvg ABs
howarry01 0.4436 0932
ramirma02 0.4032 6575
bayja01__ 0.4021 1667
thomeji01 0.4013 6409
cabremi01 0.3985 2106
penawi01_ 0.3970 1106
hafnetr01 0.3951 1775
vaughmo01 0.3948 5532
abreubo01 0.3895 5276
edmonji01 0.3889 5907


So howard was a freakish historical outlier going into this year (and he hit .430 on contact in 2007). interesting how all of those guys are active except mo vaughn - maybe the mets need a new first baseman?
   37. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 25, 2007 at 05:06 PM (#2593206)
Yikes, here's the average line of Philly's Phab Phour: .283/.373/.524, 32 homers, 112 RBI, 101 runs, 123 k, 77 strikeouts. That's just awesome.
   38. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 25, 2007 at 05:14 PM (#2593215)
Obviously, that's supposed to be 77 walks in #37.
   39. FBI Posted: October 25, 2007 at 07:05 PM (#2593380)
Michael Costanzo may be the starter at 3b
Baseball America likes him, ranking him among the Top 20 prospects in the Eastern (AA) league
Bourn also has the potential to become Shane Victorino

The system is weak but not completely dry
Remember that the core of this team came from the farm
   40. Thirty-two Posted: October 25, 2007 at 07:28 PM (#2593407)
Kyle S. You have to factor out HRs also. The correct formula is (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K). I'd be curious to see the corrected list, though.
   41. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 25, 2007 at 07:49 PM (#2593431)
Bourn also has the potential to become Shane Victorino
The chance of Michael Bourn becoming as good as Victorino can't be more than 10-20%. Bourn is a very useful 4th/5th OF, especially with a team with Pat Burrell on it. Barring some uncommon development, like turning into a .300-.330 hitter, Bourn is a backup.
I'll give the Phillies farm system credit for getting position players ready for the majors. Guys like Ruiz and Bourn came along seamlessly and pretty much played up to their talents. So did Chris Coste but I don't think the farm system can take credit there. :)
   42. dr. bleachers Posted: October 25, 2007 at 07:50 PM (#2593432)
Kyle S. You have to factor out HRs also. The correct formula is (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K). I'd be curious to see the corrected list, though.

That's actually what I was looking for. It seems to me that on-contact BA would be better suited for someone like Howard (and maybe hitters in general) since he has relatively few non-HR hits. Maybe I'm off-base here.

Kyle, thanks for doing that. I did download the database you referred to just now, but apparently sorting it is going to make my computer explode.
   43. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 25, 2007 at 07:55 PM (#2593441)
I'll give the Phillies farm system credit for getting position players ready for the majors.

I'm imagining you writing "players" there, and then remembering Gavin Floyd, and changing it to "position players".

Guys like Ruiz and Bourn came along seamlessly and pretty much played up to their talents.

Somehow I didn't realize that the average catcher nowadays is such an unimpressive hitter that Ruiz has actually not been a disappointment.

Anyway, the farm system has no solution for the two obvious holes - 3B and starting pitching. Combined with the lack of holes anywhere else (assuming both Dobbs and Werth return, although I thought they were both free agents right now, so why should we assume that) - I hope free agency works better than it did last off-season. Goodbye Rowand.
   44. MattS0 Posted: October 26, 2007 at 03:01 AM (#2594305)
I'm really surprised by how bad Michael Bourn's projection is. He certainly isn't a power hitter and I could see his walk rate being lower at the major league level than it had been in the minors, but it seems surprising that his batting average could be projected that low-- .249. That corresponds with a BABIP of .310, which seems very pessimistic for a very fast runner who has a groundball rate over 50%.
   45. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 26, 2007 at 03:03 AM (#2594312)
MattSO makes a good point. Maybe it's just that Bourn's talent was contrasted this season with Chris Roberson's lack of talent, but I think Bourn is going to have a decade-long career in the majors, even if he's rarely a starter. And not just because of his fielding ability, either.
   46. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 26, 2007 at 12:20 PM (#2594737)
at least Josh Outman has a much better pitching name than Grant Balfour.

And Homer Bailey.
   47. Bad Doctor Posted: October 26, 2007 at 06:59 PM (#2595222)
Michael Costanzo may be the starter at 3b

Not to be a Negative Nate, but last I heard Costanzo was down in AA striking out once every three ups and making an error once every three games. Looking him up now ... wow, that's quite the power development ... but geez, I intended one K per 3 ups to be an exaggeration. The front office is really hitting the Kyle Kendrick crackpipe heavy if they think he can bring that game straight up from AA and be a contributor.

I'm really surprised by how bad Michael Bourn's projection is.

I don't know ... Dan uses, what, the last three years? In that time, Bourn has about 100 at bats in AAA last August and about 80 at bats spread over three months in the middle of this season that indicate he can hit major league pitching.
   48. Walt Davis Posted: October 26, 2007 at 08:52 PM (#2595325)
And with that I predict that he will be significantly overpaid for his performance in the next three or four years.

Could be. But then, even by the standards of arb-eligible players, Rowand wasn't overpaid in the last three years -- if anything rather underpaid at 2/3.25/4.35.

Rowand's worth is entirely tied up in how good he really is defensively. If he's just average as Dan rates him above, then in combo with his roughly average or just above bat for his position, he's a roughly average CF. Of course roughly average (or worse) CFs were getting $9-10 M last year, so $12 M for Rowand would be perfectly reasonable. And we're only talking about paying for his age 30-33 seasons, not generally a period of dramatic decline.

And of course most folks consider Rowand to be way above average defensively.

Of course from the Phils perspective, I'd let Rowand go, shift Victorino to CF and find a real RF. But if I was a team that needed a CF, I'd probably be a lot more interested in Rowand at his price than Jones/Hunter at their prices. I still expect Rowand to be one of the bargains of the offseason -- although Dan's average defensive rating for him gives me pause.
   49. Walt Davis Posted: October 26, 2007 at 09:36 PM (#2595363)
Kyle S. You have to factor out HRs also. The correct formula is (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K). I'd be curious to see the corrected list, though.

No, you've given the formula for BABIP.

What was asked for (and is more interesting IMHO) is on-contact BA, which does include HR and Kyle's list looks correct (though I'd never noticed Jason Bay before). The all-time leader is Ruth (408 off the top of my head) and he also is the all-time leader in SLG on-contact (810 or so). Thome is close, Manny falls a bit short on SLG.

Howard's numbers so far rank among the best seasons of all time and so his career numbers are simply off the charts. They need to be to be successful with that K-rate. The question is whether we are seeing an historic level of "true talent" or just a cluster of outstanding seasons (Ruth, Sosa, Thome, McGwire, Bonds and some others have had similar seasons) which will be followed by more typical seasons pulling his career numbers back to the historical "norm." Howard's unusual career arc means that his career numbers will consist only of prime and (presumably) decline and therefore no early career struggles also bringing his ML numbers down, so he's probably a good bet to end up the all-time leader.

And yes, both the career and seasons list are dominated by contemporary players. However, so is the list of K/AB (Howard is entering Rob Deer territory). It's a different style of hitting these days. But if you look at the few older players with K-rates which are similar, you'll find similar sorts of on-contact numbers (and some great players up until about 1 K per 4 or so ... below that it gets more dicey). This suggests trading strikeouts for power is a good tradeoff and that this is what today's players have done. Unfortunately, there's substantial selection bias here -- if you K at these rates and don't kill the ball on-contact, your won't hit well enough to stay in the majors. (It's also a huge help if you walk a lot) For example, even with near historic on-contact numbers, Wily Mo Pena is a career 259/472 hitter and since he doesn't walk much and is poor defensively, he's a below-average corner OF.

Anyway, I've been saying for some time, when discussing someone like Pena when they have these amazing on-contact seasons, that you can't expect them to outhit 400/800 on-contact and that at a 1 per 3 or 1 per 3.3 AB K-rate, that's not really all that amazingly productive. And of course, to hit 400/800, they only have to be as good as Ruth and nobody should be projected to even be that good. Mr. Howard is causing me to start questioning that.

Still, this season, BJ Upton K'd 1 per 3.1 AB. On-contact, he hit 444/753. He ain't doing that on a regular basis and he needs to cut down on his Ks. In the first half of the year, he was hitting nearly 500 on-contact. His overall 2nd half numbers of 285/379/482 might be sustainable though that's still 415/702.
   50. Harris Posted: October 27, 2007 at 09:04 PM (#2595937)
the phils pharm system for pitching may not have been awesome, thanks to Gavin Floyds etc...but realize that one this team you had Myers, Hamels, and Kendrick as three big contributors to the "success" of the pitching this year. I'd argue the problem was more with the front office's evaluation of free agent pitching (Eaton, Garcia, Alfonseca, Mesa, Gordon). JC Romero was the lone guy good pickup.
   51. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 28, 2007 at 06:00 AM (#2596912)
I'm not arguing the Phils farm system hasn't been productive - Howard, Burrell, Utley, Myers, and Hamels is a pretty impressive group. Just that they don't have much future help down there at the moment.
   52. StrangeBrewer5 Posted: October 30, 2007 at 01:50 AM (#2599546)
Only 20 stolen bases for Victorino. Do you think that his hamstring injury will become nagging, or was his 07 sb output a fluke. I think the speed is for real, and see no reason why not to expect 40sb.
   53. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: October 30, 2007 at 02:05 AM (#2599567)
The Phillies won't keep Iguchi right?
   54. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 30, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2599583)
#52 -- The Phils hired Davey Lopes prior to '97 and he is credited with teaching Victorino how to steal, so it's likely that the SB was not a fluke.

#53 -- Since Iguchi can really only play 2B, the Phils have no need for Iguchi. He was a great help when Utley was down though.
   55. kwarren Posted: October 31, 2007 at 10:45 PM (#2601922)
If Wes Helms had hit in 2007 like he'd hit in 2006, the Phillies would have won comfortably.

Helms had a .390 BABIP in 2006. Who, in their right minds, would have expected him to put up a 329/390/575 line in 07.
   56. kwarren Posted: January 01, 2008 at 08:20 PM (#2657965)
Dan Szymborski Posted: October 24, 2007 at 07:47 PM (#2592208)

I'll change the Myers projection if it looks like he's going to start again.


Dan, is this projection available anywhere. Thanks.
   57. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2008 at 03:32 PM (#2658207)
I did do Myers in a subsequent thread (Lidge trade?), but I'll have to find it!
   58. 1k5v3L Posted: January 05, 2008 at 10:30 PM (#2661196)
John Sickels has the top 20 Phillies prospects list.

Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2008

Carrasco, Cardenas, Outman are 1, 2, 3
   59. MM1f Posted: January 05, 2008 at 10:36 PM (#2661204)
I like Jamie Moyer a little more now. He seems like he is really genuinely going nuts about the Seahawks game, like a real fan
   60. SimaTime Posted: January 23, 2008 at 08:21 PM (#2674813)
I can't seem to find the updated Myers projection as a starter. Anyone got a link?
   61. Phils14Fan Posted: January 25, 2008 at 05:40 AM (#2675812)
   62. SimaTime Posted: January 29, 2008 at 04:30 AM (#2678183)
Great article, thanks for the link.

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