Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

ZiPS likes the Padres a tad more than the Giants.  I don’t think they even make tads that big.

As far as ZiPS sees it, the biggest challenge the Padres will face is making sure Kouzmanoff and Headley are both in the

lineup and figuring out what to do in centerfield, if they are in fact not going to make a run at signing Mike Cameron. 

Aaron Rowand would be a great fit, but I don’t know how expensive he’ll be in a very weak free agent market.  Not much else

to say - from eyeballing, I think ZiPS is predicting San Diego to be the best team in the NL, but I won’t know for sure until

I run the Mets projections.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Adrian Gonzalez*      1b 26 .284 .351 .511 153 585 93 166 39 2 30 89 59 116 0 0
Kevin Kouzmanoff       3b 26 .289 .345 .492 124 419 50 121 27 2 18 65 32 74 1 1
Morgan Ensberg       3b 32 .243 .370 .446 128 395 60 96 18 1 20 59 76 105 1 3
Brian Giles*        rf 37 .268 .375 .398 135 507 73 136 29 2 11 60 83 61 5 3
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.267 .347 .444—————————————————————
Brian Myrow*        1b 31 .269 .360 .418 113 323 42 87 20 2 8 42 45 88 1 1
Josh Bard#          c   30 .281 .366 .401 104 317 34 89 21 1 5 42 43 62 0 1
Chase Headley#        3b 24 .264 .353 .410 136 466 52 123 28 2 12 52 58 125 2 2
Hiram Bocachica       rf 32 .247 .349 .421 78 259 29 64 13 1 10 34 35 54 8 4
Milton Bradley#      rf 30 .261 .348 .407 81 295 40 77 11 1 10 35 37 62 6 2
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.266 .339 .426—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.265 .336 .427—————————————————————
Mike Cameron         cf 35 .249 .334 .424 125 481 73 120 26 5 16 61 56 131 17 5
Termel Sledge*        lf 31 .248 .333 .429 120 326 35 81 13 2 14 45 40 80 2 2
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.263 .333 .423—————————————————————
Kyle Blanks         1b 21 .255 .318 .419 109 384 44 98 22 1 13 57 24 116 4 1
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.261 .326 .402—————————————————————
Khalil Greene         ss 28 .249 .300 .442 139 523 73 130 37 2 20 77 36 111 5 0
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.265 .327 .389—————————————————————
Matt Antonelli       2b 23 .254 .337 .376 114 425 65 108 16 3 10 42 49 89 13 6
Scott Hairston       lf 28 .243 .317 .405 100 304 35 74 14 1 11 33 31 72 1 0
Chad Huffman         lf 23 .252 .331 .380 107 361 42 91 14 1 10 52 33 90 0 1
Paul McAnulty*        lf 27 .255 .323 .391 109 361 38 92 21 2 8 42 35 81 1 1
David Freese         3b 25 .250 .324 .381 117 420 54 105 21 2 10 58 36 117 3 1
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.263 .319 .384—————————————————————
Rob Mackowiak*        lf 32 .256 .332 .354 102 285 32 73 11 1 5 30 28 78 4 1
Michael Barrett       c   31 .254 .313 .385 99 335 32 85 18 1 8 36 27 50 1 1
AVERAGE C———————c——- .250 .312 .379—————————————————————
Jason Lane           rf 31 .230 .304 .402 127 391 46 90 20 1 15 56 38 88 2 2
Marcus Giles         2b 30 .246 .327 .356 133 505 73 124 28 2 8 47 57 100 9 3
Royce Huffman         1b 31 .242 .329 .339 105 351 34 85 20 1 4 36 39 72 2 1
Luis Rodriguez#      3b 28 .244 .321 .344 86 209 24 51 10 1 3 19 23 23 0 1
Craig Stansberry       2b 26 .225 .309 .355 131 445 54 100 22 3 10 48 50 115 8 6
Colt Morton         c   26 .220 .295 .371 81 259 24 57 15 0 8 28 24 86 0 1
Nicholas Hundley       c   24 .222 .281 .376 101 356 27 79 19 0 12 48 27 85 0 1
Drew Macias*        cf 25 .233 .308 .336 120 390 38 91 16 3 6 37 39 86 4 7
Will Venable*        rf 25 .245 .296 .327 124 444 46 109 16 1 6 49 27 84 9 3
Geoff Blum#          3b 35 .233 .298 .329 92 249 24 58 13 1 3 22 22 42 0 1
Vince Sinisi*        rf 26 .236 .289 .326 110 433 42 102 22 1 5 38 31 79 4 4
Oscar Robles*        3b 32 .239 .302 .295 88 251 23 60 9 1 1 17 22 26 0 3
Yordany Ramirez       cf 24 .238 .266 .324 94 324 36 77 14 1 4 35 10 71 14 7  
Luis Cruz           ss 24 .212 .248 .310 111 387 31 82 18 1 6 30 17 51 2 2
Cedric Hunter*        cf 20 .221 .265 .278 116 403 28 89 11 0 4 34 23 76 4 6

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Gonzalez*          Av            
Kouzmanoff         Av   Av        
Ensberg           Av   Vg        
Giles*                        Av
Myrow*            Fr            
Bard#          Pr                
Headley#              Av        
Bocachica                   Av Pr Av
Bradley#                  Vg Av Vg
Cameron                     Av  
Sledge*                    Av   Av
Blanks             Fr            
Greene                   Vg      
Antonelli             Fr Av        
Hairston                   Av    
Huffman                   Av    
McAnulty*          Av   Fr   Pr   Pr
Freese                 Fr        
Mackowiak*          Av Fr Fr   Vg Pr Av
Barrett         Pr                
Lane                     Pr Pr Pr
Giles               Av          
Huffman           Av Pr Pr Pr Fr   Fr
Rodriguez#            Av Av Fr      
Stansberry           Av Fr Fr      
Morton         Av   Fr            
Hundley         Av                
Macias*                    Fr Fr Fr
Venable*                  Vg Pr Vg
Blum#            Av Fr Av Fr Fr   Fr
Sinisi*                    Fr Pr Fr
Robles*              Fr Vg Fr      
Ramirez                     Vg
Cruz               Av Av Av      
Hunter*                    Vg Vg  


Player Spotlight - Adrian Gonzalez
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .307 .377 .567 162 619 111 190 46 2 37 114 68 111 0 0  
Mean         .284 .351 .511 153 585 93 166 39 2 30 89 59 116 0 0  
Pessimistic (15%) .259 .318 .443 125 479 65 124 28 0 20 58 42 103 0 0  

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Kent Hrbek, Alvin Davis

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Trevor Hoffman         40   2.53   5   1 59   0   57.0   49   16   3   12   46
Heath Bell           30   2.89   6   2 66   0   81.0   68   26   5   24   84
Joe Thatcher*        26   2.96   6   3 59   0   67.0   59   22   5   17   60
Jake Peavy           27   2.99 17   7 33 33   214.0 181   71 19   56 221
Cla Meredith         25   3.26   7   4 78   0   91.0   89   33   7   16   66
Chris Young           29   3.32 12   6 31 31   176.0 147   65 18   60 165
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———3.78———————————————————————-
Justin Hampson*        28   3.84   3   3 59   0   75.0   69   32   8   34   63
Greg Maddux           42   3.91 14 11 33 33   200.0 212   87 18   34 106
Doug Brocail         41   3.95   3   3 56   1   66.0   65   29   6   25   47
Will Startup*        23   3.97   4   4 56   0   77.0   75   34   9   21   58
Scott Cassidy         32   4.00   6   5 52   1   72.0   68   32 10   25   72
Kevin Cameron         28   4.11   3   3 44   0   70.0   69   32   6   29   52
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.14———————————————————————-
Justin Germano         25   4.24 10 10 30 28   172.0 181   81 21   36 105
Brett Tomko           35   4.34   8   9 36 21   143.0 145   69 16   49 104
Clay Hensley         28   4.47   7   8 32 22   145.0 150   72 14   61   92
Mike Adams           30   4.50   2   3 46   0   58.0   60   29   6   27   43
Adrian Burnside*      31   4.50   1   2 43   0   52.0   54   26   6   18   36
Casey Fossum*        30   4.53   7   9 35 21   133.0 131   67 17   55 106
Wade LeBlanc*        23   4.67   8 11 27 25   131.0 139   68 20   30 105
Wil Ledezma*          27   4.71   5   6 35 13   105.0 107   55 13   50   79
Jack Cassel           27   4.75   8 10 33 22   161.0 182   85 18   49   88
Shawn Estes*          35   4.88   4   6 19 16   94.0 105   51 11   38   56
Frank Brooks*        29   4.94   2   3 53   0   62.0   62   34 12   30   50
Josh Geer           25   4.99   8 12 26 26   166.0 201   92 21   31   72
Jared Wells           26   5.01   8 10 34 22   142.0 157   79 16   58   86
Aaron Rakers         31   5.02   4   7 69   0   95.0 100   53 18   24   81
Tim Stauffer         26   5.21   6 11 28 25   159.0 183   92 20   49   85
Mike Thompson         27   5.34   6 10 29 25   160.0 190   95 21   49   66
Steve Watkins         29   5.37   4   7 29 15   109.0 122   65 17   42   63
Cesar Carrillo         24   5.40   1   2   9   9   50.0   55   30   8   20   32
Roger Deago*          39   6.13   4 11 30 19   119.0 140   81 23   57   72
Ryan Ketchner*        26   6.15   3   9 20 19   98.0 116   67 19   32   68

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Jake Peavy
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  2.14 21   4 34 34 231 173   55 14   53 261
Mean           2.99 17   7 33 33 214 181   71 19   56 221
Pessimistic (15%)  3.64 11   8 27 27 173 158   70 18   58 167

Top Near-Age Comps:  Camilo Pascual, Bret Saberhagen

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:35 AM | 41 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. plink Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:00 AM (#2578799)
Any chance of a ZiPS for Inman?
   2. Every Inge Counts Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:03 AM (#2578802)
Nice, Wade LeBlanc...people who know prospects-how does he look? I saw him pitch a few times at Alabama.
   3. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:45 AM (#2579055)
Why does ZIPS hate Bradley?
   4. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:46 AM (#2579059)
I know. ZIPS is racist!

I kind of wish I thought of that joke before I clicked submit.
   5. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: October 16, 2007 at 07:53 AM (#2579068)
Peavy's pessimistic projection is pretty damn sweet. Also, I noticed that there are about 76 pitchers on the list before you get to one with an ERA projected to be above 5, and that isn't just the park.
   6. Honkie Kong Posted: October 16, 2007 at 10:06 AM (#2579074)
Peavy's pessimistic projection is pretty damn sweet.


Sadly Zips is no playing time/injury predictor, and thats where Peavy's real pessimistic projection will come from
   7. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 16, 2007 at 10:55 AM (#2579079)
I think ZiPS is predicting San Diego to be the best team in the NL, but I won't know for sure until I run the Mets projections.

Are we that sure that the Rockies won't be in the mix?
   8. Frisco Cali Posted: October 16, 2007 at 12:18 PM (#2579099)
Do the Pads try Headley at 2b?
What to do with the OF? - B Giles isn't getting any younger, Cameron may be gone, and there isn't a LF til Bradley comes back and we don't know when that will be
   9. Gromit Posted: October 16, 2007 at 12:41 PM (#2579117)
Can Headley play LF?
   10. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:37 PM (#2579281)
Dan,

What does ZIPS think of Barrett in a nuetral environment?
   11. The Essex Snead Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:46 PM (#2579291)
Can Headley play LF?


If Hairston's performance during his Padres tenure wasn't a fluke (tho ZIPS says otherwise), you could do worse than a Hairston / Sledge platoon.
   12. EddieA Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:55 PM (#2579307)
What I want to know is how many of Hairston's projected 11 home runs would come against the Giants.
   13. Mike Green Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:59 PM (#2579315)
Dan, the Hoffman projection is way off. It appears likely (from his home-road splits and his left-right splits) that the best he can hope to be is adequate.

What the Padres did this year is mask his decline by pitching him disproportionately at PETCO. Any projection system is going to have a tough time with a 40 year old who throws 35 innings in a great pitching environment and 22 innings in a neutral one. This is a case where manual adjustments need to be made.
   14. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:17 PM (#2579436)
This is a case where manual adjustments need to be made.

But if they keep doing that, it should be right-ish, no? The thing would be if they didn't do that on purpose (35/22 might be random, particularly when you consider they won more home games) and then he had a larger share of IP in hitter's parks.
   15. shoewizard Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:44 PM (#2579478)
Dan, just curious about Scott Hairston, (of course). Last year ZIPS had him at 856 OPS, and he posted a 765. Other than ballpark, what are the factors that makes ZIPS project such a dismal performance from him in 2008, (722 OPS) ?

Despite haveing close to legue average line drive percentage he had a below legue avg BABIP. I remember during the Orioles series, he was robbed of a homerun by Patterson, and then a double, and Melvin Mora robbed him TWICE on shots down the line. He lost 10 extra bases vs. the Orioles in June alone. I remember calculating at the time that if those robberies not occured, it would have added 100 points to his OPS and he never would have been traded.

If they give the guy 400-500 PA, I would bet a fair sum he will have a higher OPS than 722
   16. 1k5v3L Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:46 PM (#2579482)
If they give the guy 400-500 PA, I would bet a fair sum he will have a higher OPS than 722


i hope not.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:02 PM (#2579502)
Bugger, I was hoping nobody would mention Hairston.

At one point last winter, I accidentally erased Tucson's 2006 HR park factor and my spreadsheet as a result reported a 3-year weighted HR factor of 64 as a result. I had to do a bunch of Arizona players over again and while I thought I had fixed everyone, I happened to re-check Hairston's projection over the summer and saw that I had never fixed him. I double-checked all the other Diamondbacks and everyone else's was correct.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:15 PM (#2579513)
What the Padres did this year is mask his decline by pitching him disproportionately at PETCO. Any projection system is going to have a tough time with a 40 year old who throws 35 innings in a great pitching environment and 22 innings in a neutral one. This is a case where manual adjustments need to be made.

The split isn't quite that severe because he faced a lot more batters per inning away than he did at home. All in all, it was 9% more BF at home and 9% more on the road.

Also, the ERA splits are exaggerated. While the home/road ERA split is a massive 1.80/4.84, the home/road DIPS ERA split was 3.11/3.32, which is actually slightly smaller than the normal Petco/Road split!
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2579515)
That should read 9% less BF on the road, not more.
   20. Mike Green Posted: October 16, 2007 at 05:55 PM (#2579571)
Yeah. Actually, recalling the Randy Johnson discussion of last year and looking at Hoffman's and Maddux's projections for this year, it probably has more to do with the projections for 40+ year old great career pitchers. Hoffman's age 40 K rate (7.25/9IP) is projected to be higher than his combined age 38 and 39 K rate (7.03/9IP). Maddux's age 42 ERA+ is projected to be better than his age 39-41 ERA+. I don't know why this happens, but probably it is because some weight is attached to earlier performance.

In Hoffman's particular case, there are a number of objective indicators of significant decline, from K rate to platoon splits to intentional walk rate. Opposing managers will catch on, and pinch-hit with left-handed hitters a little more, and like Gossage did at the end, Hoffman is going to struggle to be better than a league average reliever.
   21. xeifrank Posted: October 16, 2007 at 06:08 PM (#2579588)
Padres the best team in the NL? Need to run the Mets?? You don't think teams like the Rockies, Diamondbacks or Dodgers will project as well?
vr, Xei
   22. GEB4000 Posted: October 17, 2007 at 12:35 AM (#2580128)
Maddux's projection seems pretty generous. He'll be within striking distance of the top 5 wins of all time if he meets his projection in 2008.
   23. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 17, 2007 at 01:40 AM (#2580368)
What are the PFs for SD here? What kind of line would someone like Hundley or Morton put up in a neutral environment?
   24. harrball Posted: October 17, 2007 at 03:25 AM (#2580740)
ZIPS like Cla - 1.6 BB and .7 HR per 9IP
   25. FBI Posted: October 17, 2007 at 05:27 AM (#2580838)
Yes Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley play 3b but so DOES Morgan Ensberg who is projected to play well
   26. shock Posted: October 17, 2007 at 05:35 AM (#2580841)
Jesus, what the hell happened to Marcus Giles?
   27. St.Philly Posted: October 17, 2007 at 02:41 PM (#2581074)
I call dibs on Ensberg, especially if he's only a B class FA.
   28. St.Philly Posted: October 17, 2007 at 03:26 PM (#2581163)
Turns out Ensberg is just short of FA status. Wonder if the Pads will even offer him arbitration? He doesn't seem to fit into their plans and paying $5 million for insurance seems a bit high for the Pads.
   29. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: October 17, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2581170)
KT said that if they don't sign Bradley to play LF (which is highly unlikely since he's hurt until mid-next year) that he'd be fine with a platoon of Hairston/Headley in LF.

Now, we need to get a CF, if not Cameron or Rowand, then at least Hunter.

KT also said that Antonelli will halve to earn the 2b job in spring. I think he will. So we'll probably open the season playing something like:

Bard/Barret C
Gonzalez 1b
Antonelli 2b
Kouzmanoff 3b
Greene SS
Hairston/Headley LF
Cameron? CF
Giles RF

We do need some good CFer.
   30. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 17, 2007 at 03:44 PM (#2581190)
If Hoffman is always brought in for a save situation, his IP splits aren't surprising. They won more games at home. Since Petco is a low scoring park, you will have a higher ptg of save opportunities as most games will be separated by 3 runs or less.

I like Josh Bard's projections. Too bad he plays in Petco.
   31. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 17, 2007 at 08:42 PM (#2581716)
Even if the Padres staff isn't much at holding runners, the amazing 121-for-131 baserunners did in stolen bases against Bard is a huge concern.
   32. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: October 17, 2007 at 09:14 PM (#2581760)
It was a concern, that's why they got Barret, although, he wasn't much of a difference maker in that regard. But watching about 80% of the games, I saw runners take HUGE jumps on the pitchers a lot of times, running leads sometimes; the Padres pitchers as a whole weren't good at keeping the runners close to the bag.

I'm looking forward to see if they're looking to better their keep-the-runner-close-to-the-bag skill.
   33. John DiFool2 Posted: October 18, 2007 at 04:13 AM (#2581993)
For anyone who has watched him: what the hell happened to Marcus Giles? That 2008 projection is very brutal, considering what he did at ages 25-27-goes from an up and coming star to a complete washout in 2 years.
   34. John DiFool2 Posted: October 18, 2007 at 04:14 AM (#2581994)
Sorry Skuzzy (can't edit in this forum for some odd reason).
   35. karkface killah Posted: October 18, 2007 at 05:11 PM (#2582445)
Jesus, what the hell happened to Marcus Giles?

He's expected to be a high first round pick in the George Mitchell Fantasy Draft.
   36. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: October 18, 2007 at 05:24 PM (#2582461)
The Padres already said they're not going to pick up his option for the next season.
   37. Geoff Young Posted: October 18, 2007 at 08:08 PM (#2582708)
Even if the Padres staff isn't much at holding runners, the amazing 121-for-131 baserunners did in stolen bases against Bard is a huge concern.


If you haven't seen the Padres staff "attempt" to hold runners, it's difficult to imagine how bad they are at it. Chris Young and Greg Maddux might as well never work out of the stretch. Base stealers are 85-for-89 against Young alone over the past two years; they've stolen successfully in 46 straight attempts dating back to September 27, 2006. There isn't a catcher alive that has a chance with him on the mound.
   38. Masticore317 Posted: October 26, 2007 at 02:09 AM (#2594110)
Could you please post projections for Yordany Ramirez and Josh Geer?


Thanks!
   39. GP14 Posted: October 27, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2595778)
We do need some good CFer.

If defense is the first priority, and in PETCO it should be, Coco Crisp would look very good in San Diego. With Ellsbury's arrival, Coco is a late inning defensive replacement for Boston.
   40. plink Posted: October 28, 2007 at 05:10 AM (#2596880)
If defense is the first priority, and in PETCO it should be, Coco Crisp would look very good in San Diego. With Ellsbury's arrival, Coco is a late inning defensive replacement for Boston.

... for Bard and Meredith? Only if you give Crisp a police escort to PETCO.
   41. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: October 29, 2007 at 04:01 PM (#2598758)
Crisp?
I prefer Hunter, really; although I doubt 1)That the Pads pay him the money he's going to ask for and 2)He wants to play in SD, from everything I've heard.

I like the team we have so far, I would like for the to add to that, not subtract, we need to keep the young promising guys and the ones who have performed well enough already.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Infinite Joost (Voxter)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.2974 seconds
47 querie(s) executed