Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals

While I have nothing against the Cardinals and Cards fans may hate me for this, but the 2007 Cardinals have to be one of the absolute worst 78-84 teams I’ve seen.  No Carpenter (with the exception of one poor start), only two regulars with OPS+s above 100, feel-good story turning feel-bad story after media piled on Ankiel, Edmonds and Rolen disappointing, Aaron Miles getting playing time, and the Cards picking up every starting pitcher that was released by another team this season, should add up to something a lot less than 78 wins.  Even Pujols was ever-so-slightly less-Godlike than usual.

While ZiPS doesn’t really like the starting pitching, it does at least have a couple of bright spots, relatively speaking.  A 4.65 ERA from Reyes isn’t exactly world-beating, but it would be a big boost to 2008 team.  Jaime Garcia solidifies his claim as the only Cards starting pitcher prospect to be anywhere near ready and Colby Rasmus hit 271/381/551 for Springfield.  The Cards don’t have a lot of offensive depth in the infield, unfortunately, and it showed when Kennedy turned out not be a good option - Aaron Miles may be scrappy, but he’s not very good and Brendan Ryan is unlikely to repeat his play in the majors.  It complicates matters that So-So was a decent backup and Skip Schumaker played like a major league as there’s a good shot that better players will be behind them in the depth chart again next year.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Albert Pujols         1b 28 .325 .432 .593 150 545 109 177 33 1 37 108 100 54 6 3
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.277 .356 .459—————————————————————
Chris Duncan*        lf 27 .262 .346 .472 133 409 59 107 21 1 21 66 51 112 2 2
Ryan Ludwick         rf 29 .262 .330 .476 130 412 48 108 26 1 20 64 37 108 2 3
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.276 .348 .440—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.275 .345 .442—————————————————————
John Rodriguez*      lf 30 .259 .340 .442 101 274 39 71 16 2 10 42 29 73 2 0
Jim Edmonds*        cf 38 .247 .344 .440 110 352 50 87 18 1 16 57 52 92 2 1
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.272 .342 .437—————————————————————
Taggert Bozied       1b 28 .251 .329 .431 104 346 31 87 18 1 14 50 35 69 1 0
Russell Branyan*      3b 32 .220 .335 .424 77 191 26 42 9 0 10 26 32 67 1 0
Scott Spiezio#        3b 35 .253 .347 .392 77 194 27 49 10 1 5 27 24 41 0 0
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.270 .334 .414—————————————————————
Colby Rasmus*        cf 21 .245 .329 .419 121 425 46 104 23 3 15 50 46 90 14 5
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.275 .333 .403—————————————————————
Scott Rolen         3b 33 .255 .331 .397 106 380 56 97 25 1 9 55 40 52 3 2
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.273 .328 .398—————————————————————
Brian Barden         3b 26 .265 .310 .430 132 486 67 129 32 3 14 62 28 109 4 3
David Eckstein       ss 33 .289 .348 .356 125 491 66 142 20 2 3 35 34 33 7 4
Juan Encarnacion       rf 32 .264 .313 .407 106 386 48 102 18 2 11 54 24 66 3 2
AVERAGE C——————— c——.258 .319 .391—————————————————————
Rick Ankiel*        rf 28 .241 .285 .458 122 448 46 108 18 2 25 77 27 105 2 2
Skip Schumaker*      rf 28 .272 .314 .370 132 397 45 108 20 2 5 33 23 57 4 3
Brendan Ryan         ss 26 .265 .315 .351 117 396 61 105 18 2 4 22 27 44 13 3
Joe Mather           rf 25 .227 .289 .394 117 406 40 92 21 1 15 46 28 81 4 0
So Taguchi           cf 38 .263 .318 .336 122 304 39 80 14 1 2 30 21 44 8 2
Bryan Anderson*      c   21 .258 .307 .347 111 380 38 98 17 1 5 41 26 73 0 2
Aaron Miles#        2b 31 .268 .311 .334 119 377 44 101 15 2 2 29 23 43 2 1
Yadier Molina         c   25 .245 .307 .349 124 404 34 99 21 0 7 51 33 40 1 2
Preston Wilson       lf 33 .242 .303 .342 78 281 28 68 13 0 5 30 22 70 3 1
Jarrett Hoffpauir     2b 25 .246 .318 .332 118 382 35 94 19 1 4 35 38 38 4 4
Adam Kennedy*        2b 32 .251 .310 .332 110 355 35 89 19 2 2 32 27 49 12 4
Miguel Cairo         2b 34 .253 .311 .325 71 194 22 49 11 0 1 16 14 23 7 1
Mark Hamilton*        1b 23 .228 .279 .382 116 403 33 92 20 0 14 62 27 92 2 0
Nick Stavinoha       rf 26 .251 .289 .363 114 402 33 101 16 1 9 40 20 62 2 1
Cody Haerther*        lf 24 .239 .286 .365 94 310 28 74 19 1 6 31 20 44 1 2
Danny Ardoin         c   33 .220 .297 .332 88 232 29 51 14 0 4 19 21 52 2 0
Tyler Greene         ss 24 .225 .288 .337 100 347 37 78 13 1 8 30 23 101 14 3
Gary Bennett         c   36 .230 .284 .311 49 135 10 31 5 0 2 16 10 22 0 1
Travis Hanson*        3b 27 .211 .261 .305 110 383 36 81 13 1 7 33 24 75 0 1
Ryan Christianson     c   27 .194 .256 .304 83 273 22 53 9 0 7 25 22 78 3 1
Kelly Stinnett       c   38 .216 .264 .288 58 139 10 30 4 0 2   9   8 41 0 0

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight - Albert Pujols
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .354 .466 .684 156 567 132 201 42 2 47 143 114 48 8 2
Mean         .325 .432 .593 150 545 109 177 33 1 37 108 100 54 6 3  
Pessimistic (15%) .296 .397 .521 122 443 77 131 25 0 25 72 74 49 3 4

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Manny Ramirez, Hal Trosky

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Pujols             Ex            
Duncan*            Av       Fr   Fr
Ludwick                   Av Fr Av
Rodriguez*                  Fr   Fr
Edmonds*          Av         Av  
Bozied             Fr       Pr   Pr
Branyan*          Av   Fr   Fr    
Spiezio#          Av Fr Av   Av   Av
Rasmus*                      Av  
Rolen                 Ex        
Barden             Av Pr Vg Pr      
Eckstein                 Av      
Encarnacion                 Av   Av
Ankiel*                    Av Pr Av
Schumaker*                  Av Av Av
Ryan               Av Av Av      
Mather                       Fr Vg
Taguchi                   Av Fr Av
Anderson*      Fr                
Miles#              Av Av Pr      
Molina         Ex                
Wilson                     Pr Pr Pr
Hoffpauir             Av Av Fr      
Kennedy*            Av   Fr      
Cairo             Av Av Fr Pr Av   Av
Hamilton*          Fr            
Stavinoha                   Fr   Fr
Haerther*                  Fr    
Ardoin         Av   Fr            
Greene                   Av      
Bennett         Pr                
Hanson*              Pr Fr        
Christianson     Av           Fr    
Stinnett       Fr                

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Russ Springer         39   2.95   5   2 68   0   58.0   47   19   5   19   53
Troy Percival         38   3.14   3   1 41   0   43.0   36   15   5   16   35
Jason Isringhausen     35   3.54   4   2 63   0   61.0   51   24   7   34   52
Chris Carpenter       33   3.56 12   8 27 27   187.0 183   74 18   38 145
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.03———————————————————————-
Ryan Franklin         35   4.03   5   5 66   0   76.0   79   34   9   19   41
Randy Flores*        32   4.09   2   1 68   0   55.0   58   25   4   17   48
Adam Wainwright       26   4.13 13 11 31 31   194.0 202   89 20   57 131
Tyler Johnson*        27   4.33   2   1 66   0   54.0   51   26   7   23   44
Josh Kinney           29   4.39   3   4 66   0   80.0   78   39   8   42   64
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.41———————————————————————-
Jason Motte           26   4.42   3   3 47   0   55.0   58   27   7   17   38
Todd Wellemeyer       29   4.44   3   3 36   9   79.0   77   39   9   43   59
Brian Falkenborg       30   4.50   4   5 61   0   70.0   75   35   7   25   49
Anthony Reyes         26   4.65   8   9 27 26   149.0 153   77 23   45 106
Jaime Garcia*        21   4.65   8   9 24 24   147.0 163   76 16   45   74
Braden Looper         33   4.84   9 11 28 28   160.0 173   86 19   54   83
Andy Cavazos         27   4.97   4   5 64   0   76.0   80   42 10   33   53
Mike Venafro*        34   4.98   1   2 53   0   47.0   54   26   4   21   21
Kelvin Jimenez         27   5.03   3   5 57   0   77.0   88   43   6   27   42
Mark Mulder*          30   5.06   7 11 24 24   144.0 162   81 18   59   79
Brad Thompson         26   5.15   4   7 48 12   117.0 135   67 20   38   55
Kip Wells           31   5.27   9 13 30 25   152.0 163   89 20   84 105
Mark Worrell         25   5.27   3   4 60   0   70.0   76   41 14   26   50
Chris Perez           22   5.28   2   2 59   0   58.0   55   34   9   37   53
Joel Pineiro         29   5.28   6 10 36 22   150.0 171   88 20   53   80
Chris Narveson*        26   5.36   4   7 20 19   99.0 108   59 17   44   57
Matt Scherer         25   5.42   4   7 60   0   83.0   95   50 15   27   58
Mitchell Boggs         24   5.49   7 11 28 28   164.0 196 100 22   61   81
Eric Haberer*        25   5.55   8 13 29 27   167.0 198 103 20   73   59
Mike Maroth*          30   5.59   6 11 28 23   145.0 171   90 25   52   79
Blake Hawksworth       25   5.72   6 11 26 26   148.0 179   94 24   48   70
Stuart Pomeranz       23   5.76   5 10 23 23   136.0 163   87 23   46   61
Troy Cate*          27   5.96   3   5 47   7   80.0   92   53 14   35   52
Adam Ottavino         22   5.98   6 13 27 27   134.0 160   89 24   56   79
Dennis Dove           26   6.05   3   5 49   0   61.0   69   41 13   23   39

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Anthony Reyes
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.75 12   8 31 30 173 162   72 21   44 133
Mean           4.65   8   9 27 26 149 153   77 23   45 106
Pessimistic (15%)  5.82   5   9 23 22 119 135   77 24   46   77

Top Near-Age Comps:  Adam Eaton, Paul Moskau

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 09, 2007 at 03:41 AM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Champions Table Posted: October 09, 2007 at 04:32 AM (#2569429)
Looks like someone forgot to do pitcher projections for Miles and Spiezio.
   2. philly Posted: October 09, 2007 at 04:32 AM (#2569431)
Jaime Garcia solidifies his claim as the only Cards starting pitcher prospect to be anywhere near ready


Garcia didn't pitch the last month or so of the season. I never heard exactly why, but presumably some kind of arm ailment.
   3. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 09, 2007 at 05:06 AM (#2569471)
jaime garcia had issues with his elbow...yeah. not good.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 09, 2007 at 05:18 AM (#2569482)
I had been under the impression it wasn't serious. It actually looks quite serious! Too bad.
   5. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 09, 2007 at 05:34 AM (#2569493)
Yikes, that's an ugly projection for Rolen. Molina will do better than that, IMO.
   6.     Hey Gurl Posted: October 09, 2007 at 05:41 AM (#2569499)
Heh...I like Ankiel with 25 dingers and still worse than an average catcher.

And talk about a nose-dive: ZiPS had Scott Rolen projected at .287/.371/.509 entering 2007.
   7. St.Philly Posted: October 09, 2007 at 06:00 AM (#2569508)
So, ZiPS project that Rolen will play hurt again?
   8. myst333 Posted: October 09, 2007 at 08:37 AM (#2569546)
Thats depressing. Based on this and the 2007 results I wonder if Wellemeyer should end up in the rotation?
   9. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 09, 2007 at 02:14 PM (#2569672)
had been under the impression it wasn't serious. It actually looks quite serious! Too bad.


they are saying it's going to be ok, but they said the same thing about chris carpenter.
   10. AROM Posted: October 09, 2007 at 02:33 PM (#2569686)
So, ZiPS project that Rolen will play hurt again?


Whens the last time he played without being hurt? Looks like 2004.
   11. 1k5v3L Posted: October 09, 2007 at 03:09 PM (#2569725)
I'd love to see a player spotlight for Rick Ankiel.
   12. Cabbage Posted: October 09, 2007 at 03:14 PM (#2569728)
Check out Pujols' BB:K at 'optimistic'.
   13. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 09, 2007 at 03:22 PM (#2569738)
"they are saying it's going to be ok, but they said the same thing about chris carpenter."

And he probably will be... in a year and a half.
   14. greenback calls it soccer Posted: October 09, 2007 at 03:42 PM (#2569760)
A 4.65 ERA from Reyes isn't exactly world-beating, but it would be a big boost to 2008 team.


Reyes isn't putting up an ERA south of 5 for the Cardinals, DD/TLR or not.

You have to watch Aaron Miles everyday to appreciate how untalented he is.
   15. phredbird Posted: October 09, 2007 at 05:34 PM (#2569925)
i remember some of us card fanboys were saying they thought the projections had edmonds too low last year. well ... i'm not making that mistake this year!

we're in trouble.
   16. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 09, 2007 at 05:42 PM (#2569939)
dan, if you read this i was wondering if you could do the ZiPS on Jason Motte, Joe Mather and Jarrett Hoffpauir. Thanks
   17. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 09, 2007 at 05:45 PM (#2569945)
Er, reason I ask is all are headed to the Arizona Fall League and are probably going to be added to the 40 man. Just thought I should clarify.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 09, 2007 at 07:28 PM (#2570110)
OK, those three players are now included in the above projections (and therefore, also on the DMB disk). For those that don't remember, I'll generally project anyone, so long as the player's played full-season ball (with exceptions for players like Weeks, who I actually had to project with little minor league experience, due to quickness of promotion). I also don't like going over 80 players for a team, simply because I like using DMB to organize all this and DMB won't let you have more than 80 players assigned to an organization.
   19. HowardMegdal Posted: October 09, 2007 at 07:33 PM (#2570118)
And when can we expect the 2008 DMB disk? These are great, and I will be feeling my baseball withdrawal symptoms soon- and by soon, I mean last Monday.
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 09, 2007 at 07:45 PM (#2570135)
And when can we expect the 2008 DMB disk? These are great, and I will be feeling my baseball withdrawal symptoms soon- and by soon, I mean last Monday.

I'll release it more periodically, even if certain things I want to do aren't done, just so people can have access to it.
   21. Champions Table Posted: October 09, 2007 at 09:50 PM (#2570247)
At some point early on when Albert was really struggling, he was striking out a ton (relatively speaking). I just went and looked; he finished with a "whopping" 58 K's and led the majors in BB/K.

On a side note, I saw Anthony Reyes and Brad Thompson at a Chipotle in Clayton this weekend ...
   22. Kyle S Posted: October 09, 2007 at 10:32 PM (#2570264)
I thought Ankiel was a good outfielder but it looks like you don't think he is, Dan. What do cards fans think? What about UZR?
   23. greenback calls it soccer Posted: October 09, 2007 at 10:44 PM (#2570274)
Ankiel was erratic in the outfield. Decent athlete, although not as good as claimed, and a fantastic arm (duh), but would take some odd routes and looked lost at times.

Dan, if you're taking requests, could you exclude Maroth and Wells?
   24. phredbird Posted: October 10, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2570878)
considering he hasn't been an outfielder all that long, i imagine he's got some things to learn. i'd say he's already better than duncan, though i guess that's not saying much.
what worries me more is his swing. i didn't see much of him, but what i saw had me wondering. it isn't very pretty, and it sure looks like the pitchers had him figured out toward the end of the season.
   25. Russ Posted: October 10, 2007 at 05:52 PM (#2570929)
The Cardinals look like the Pirates - LaRoche + Pujols for next year, if you think

Carpenter + Wainwright ~= Snell + Gorzellany

The rest of the rotations are probably a wash, as are the bullpens, and most of the rest of the respective starting lineups.

I think this is more like bad news for the Cards than good news for the Pirates.
   26. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 10, 2007 at 06:11 PM (#2570959)
"Dan, if you're taking requests, could you exclude Maroth and Wells?"

I laughed.
   27. Russ Posted: October 11, 2007 at 01:46 AM (#2571405)
"Dan, if you're taking requests, could you exclude Maroth and Wells?"

I laughed.


Everyone who thought that Josh Fogg would turn out to be the best pitcher involved the Todd Ritchie deal 6 years later, please raise your hand.
   28. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 11, 2007 at 02:34 AM (#2571429)
So what's the story with Rolen's health prospects?
   29. Russ Posted: October 11, 2007 at 06:05 AM (#2571515)
So what's the story with Rolen's health prospects?


Partly cloudy (vision), 40% chance of (falling in the) showers.
   30. More Indecisive than Lonnie Smith on 2nd... Posted: October 12, 2007 at 02:45 AM (#2572387)
Wow. The only way Pujols could ever reach the mythic "optimistic" projection is if they found a couple of .400 OBP guys to put 1-2, because he's not touching 120-130 RBI again until they get rid of the crud that Jocketty/LaRussa had found to put in front of him. Poor guy...no, wait, I would make some kind of sympathetic statement, but that #### for brains team has the same number of WS wins as the Braves. And with a worse team than they ever fielded. So while he might soldier on until his next big payday, at least he has his ring...
   31. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2579438)
Everyone who thought that Josh Fogg would turn out to be the best pitcher involved the Todd Ritchie deal 6 years later, please raise your hand.

Ooh, ooh, ooh...ooh-ooh...although not as good as I thought he'd be.
   32. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:21 PM (#2579445)
Joel Pineiro 29 5.28 6 10 36 22 150.0 171 88 20 53 80

Holy crap, the Cards better hope LaRussa doesn't leave and take Dave Duncan with him.
   33. AlexIsADirtySanchez Posted: October 31, 2007 at 02:20 AM (#2600894)
Was there any larger disparity in starting pitcher projections than Reyes had last year? It kept me on Anthony's bandwagon until September (and maybe still a little when no one can hear me).

And, Wow, in retrospect that reliever-starter conversion toy you developed came pretty close on Thompson and Loop! I'm still impressed with that toy.
   34. greenback calls it soccer Posted: December 01, 2007 at 02:32 PM (#2630673)
Dan, I don't know if you plan on giving Cubs fans something to cackle about with the Izturis signing, so I'll ask here. Could you project Jose Martinez, the one who played at Palm Beach and Springfield this year and was born 1/24/86? I'm guessing it's not pretty, but I need another front on the war against the Middle Infield Legion of Extreme Suckitude (MILES).

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Sheer Tim Foli
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.4379 seconds
42 querie(s) executed