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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, October 04, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers

Well, the good news is that ZiPS still likes the front of the bullpen to remain solid and the Rangers have some catcher depth to sort through.  The bad new is that the rest of the team is pretty, bleak, with ZiPS not seeing anyone in the organization that’s odds-on to be an above-average 1B, DH, 3B, LF, RF, #2 starter, #3 starter, #4 starter, or #5 starter.  And the few to even come close are generally long-shots for jobs.  As good a player as Salty can be, the Rangers really have to be concerned at their front-line offense, which is might be worse than that of the Jays.

I’ve done spotlights for Taylor Teagarden and Kevin Millwood.  Teagarden’s a pretty interesting player now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery.  The team’s going to continue to work on getting his arm back to where it used to be and sort out the catching situation in the next year or so.  The third above-average offensive catcher on the list, Max Ramirez, isn’t much of a defensive catcher and won’t stay there if his bat gets him to the majors.  Teagarden doesn’t project to be an above-average DH-type this year, but I have to agree with ZiPS here regarding his power potential.  This was essentially Teagarden’s first full professional season, for all intents and purposes.  The Rangers really need to promote Teagarden aggressively in 2008 and not leave him to beat up younger pitchers - given their situation, it’d be nice for the team to get an idea what they have in him going into 2009.  As for Kevin Millwood, well, he’s the only Ranger starter with a really good shot to not stink.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
AVERAGE 1B/DH—————1b——.284 .362 .490—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.277 .353 .471—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.277 .351 .472—————————————————————
Jason Botts#        lf 27 .258 .359 .447 134 472 73 122 32 3 17 77 73 152 1 1
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.279 .347 .458—————————————————————
Mike Young           ss 31 .303 .352 .427 158 661 88 200 39 2 13 95 48 105 8 3
Ian Kinsler         2b 26 .269 .345 .440 132 491 95 132 25 1 19 65 54 67 18 4
Victor Diaz         rf 26 .274 .329 .475 112 394 50 108 20 1 19 77 31 111 4 2
Marlon Byrd         cf 30 .288 .344 .443 141 497 67 143 28 5 13 79 37 99 4 3
Hank Blalock*        3b 27 .276 .336 .446 136 536 72 148 27 2 20 88 47 93 1 0
Taylor Teagarden       c   24 .251 .337 .454 105 350 46 88 20 0 17 55 41 127 1 1
Nate Gold           1b 28 .264 .323 .474 118 435 56 115 23 1 22 85 36 94 1 1
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.276 .340 .443—————————————————————
Frankie Catalanotto*    lf 34 .274 .355 .413 110 361 50 99 25 2 7 47 37 41 0 1
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2B——.281 .341 .424—————————————————————
David Murphy*        cf 26 .273 .336 .429 146 506 64 138 30 5 13 66 48 89 6 3
Brad Wilkerson*      lf 31 .236 .332 .435 115 382 60 90 24 2 16 56 53 119 3 3
Maximiliano Ramirez     c   23 .236 .340 .401 120 406 54 96 25 0 14 70 64 111 2 0
Jarrod Saltalamacchia#  c   23 .257 .323 .425 111 374 45 96 19 1 14 45 35 90 0 0
John Mayberry Jr.      rf 24 .235 .309 .455 123 442 65 104 23 1 24 73 42 113 9 2
Kevin West           lf 28 .257 .321 .424 93 323 37 83 18 0 12 46 27 74 0 1
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.274 .329 .404—————————————————————
Nelson Cruz         rf 27 .248 .320 .435 139 460 59 114 21 1 21 70 46 148 6 5
AVERAGE C———————- c——.265 .326 .412—————————————————————
Freddy Guzman#        cf 27 .266 .338 .367 130 485 80 129 22 6 5 35 51 75 38 11
Anthony Webster*      rf 25 .268 .306 .400 122 452 67 121 25 4 9 43 22 58 20 8
Gerald Laird         c   28 .249 .305 .391 105 353 49 88 18 1 10 45 25 82 3 2
Sammy Sosa           rf 39 .229 .294 .398 76 279 31 64 14 0 11 51 24 80 0 0
Chris Davis*        3b 22 .234 .272 .442 117 414 35 97 24 1 20 68 19 144 2 2
Chris Stewart         c   26 .249 .293 .398 87 261 30 65 16 1 7 33 15 31 1 1
Guillermo Quiroz       c   26 .248 .286 .393 70 234 16 58 13 0 7 35 12 49 0 0
German Duran         2b 23 .251 .291 .397 124 446 48 112 25 2 12 56 23 79 7 4
Desi Relaford#        3b 34 .236 .322 .328 77 259 34 61 13 1 3 37 31 45 3 0
Ramon Vazquez*        3b 31 .224 .306 .369 113 344 53 77 17 3 9 34 39 80 2 1
Kevin Mahar         rf 27 .244 .294 .378 114 431 59 105 23 1 11 48 25 112 5 3
Travis Metcalf       3b 25 .233 .289 .379 128 430 57 100 25 1 12 54 34 110 3 2
Elvis Andrus         ss 19 .248 .313 .338 116 444 65 110 24 2 4 47 38 102 26 12
Joaquin Arias         ss 23 .271 .297 .352 124 483 54 131 17 5 4 49 15 55 12 7
Jerry Hairston Jr.    cf 32 .236 .312 .338 90 237 33 56 13 1 3 21 20 38 4 4
Drew Meyer*          2b 26 .242 .298 .320 100 363 45 88 18 2 2 33 27 78 5 5

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Botts#            Av       Av   Fr
Young                   Fr      
Kinsler             Av          
Diaz                     Fr   Fr
Byrd                     Av Av Av
Blalock*              Fr        
Teagarden       Av                
Gold             Av            
Catalanotto*        Av       Fr   Pr
Murphy*                    Vg Fr Av
Wilkerson*          Av       Av Pr Av
Ramirez         Fr                
Saltalamacchia#  Fr   Fr            
Mayberry                   Av   Av
West             Fr   Pr   Fr   Fr
Cruz                     Av Fr Av
Guzman#                    Av Av Av
Webster*                  Fr Fr Fr
Laird         Vg                
Sosa                         Fr
Davis*                Fr        
Stewart         Av                
Quiroz         Vg                
Duran               Vg   Av      
Relaford#            Fr Av Pr Fr Fr Fr
Vazquez*          Fr Fr Av Pr      
Mahar                     Av Fr Av
Metcalf               Fr        
Andrus                   Av      
Arias               Av   Av      
Hairston             Fr     Av Fr Av
Meyer*              Vg Av Vg Vg Av  

Player Spotlight - Taylor Teagarden
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .288 .380 .553 117 389 63 112 26 1 25 82 51 128 1 0
Mean         .251 .337 .454 105 350 46 88 20 0 17 55 41 127 1 1
Pessimistic (15%) .231 .303 .399 82 273 30 63 13 0 11 34 26 107 0 1

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jim Pagliaroni, Steve Yeager

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Akinori Otsuka         36   3.40   4   2 56   0   53.0   50   20   3   19   41
Joaquin Benoit         30   3.44   5   2 64   0   81.0   71   31   7   30   83
C.J. Wilson*          27   3.90   3   2 63   0   67.0   63   29   6   27   58
Frankie Francisco       28   4.00   2   1 60   0   63.0   60   28   3   33   51
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.34———————————————————————-
Kevin Millwood         33   4.52 12 11 31 31   189.0 207   95 22   57 135
A.J. Murray*          26   4.56   3   4 66   0   75.0   79   38 10   33   54
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.71————————————————————————
Scott Feldman         25   4.83   3   3 62   0   82.0   91   44   8   33   48
Vicente Padilla       30   4.92 10 12 32 32   172.0 189   94 20   67 112
Willie Eyre           29   4.93   5   5 48   1   84.0   94   46 10   31   52
Jorge Vasquez         29   4.94   2   3 45   0   62.0   64   34 10   33   52
Brandon McCarthy       24   4.96   8 10 24 24   127.0 140   70 16   47   77
Kason Gabbard*        26   5.07   9 11 31 29   158.0 171   89 21   70   99
Franklyn German       28   5.07   2   3 53   0   55.0   58   31   8   33   40
Wes Littleton         25   5.10   4   4 62   0   90.0 101   51 16   25   52
Mike Wood           28   5.13   6   8 38 17   135.0 160   77 22   39   72
John Rheinecker*      29   5.14   6   8 30 21   133.0 157   76 16   44   69
Kameron Loe           26   5.18   8 10 38 23   146.0 169   84 16   57   79
Jamey Wright         33   5.20   7 10 31 20   142.0 161   82 19   65   84
Luis Mendoza         24   5.31   9 12 32 30   173.0 211 102 24   44   74
Edinson Volquez       24   5.35 10 14 33 33   175.0 189 104 31   79 131
Thomas Diamond         25   5.47   8 11 30 30   153.0 160   93 25   87 126
Bill White*          29   5.57   1   1 59   0   63.0   71   39   9   36   49
Armando Galarraga       26   5.65   7 11 29 28   161.0 190 101 29   51   99
Rob Tejeda           26   5.66   7 12 28 27   143.0 160   90 20   79   93
Brandon Puffer         32   5.79   3   4 56   0   73.0   89   47 13   25   36
Chris Baker           30   5.97   4   8 26 16   107.0 132   71 19   31   56
Josh Rupe           25   5.98   5 10 29 20   131.0 157   87 24   50   75
Randy Williams*        32   6.22   2   4 57   0   68.0   81   47 14   29   46
Ezequiel Astacio       28   6.39   4   9 33 17   107.0 129   76 26   42   73
Francisco Cruceta       26   6.43   5 10 34 21   140.0 162 100 32   65 102
Eric Hurley           22   6.59   6 15 31 30   168.0 207 123 46   51 102
Bruce Chen*          31   6.64   2   4 32 11   84.0 105   62 21   30   56
Alfredo Simon         27   7.45   4 11 30 20   122.0 167 101 29   40   51

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Kevin Millwood
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.64 17   9 34 34 215 216   87 18   55 163
Mean           4.52 12 11 31 31 189 207   95 22   57 135
Pessimistic (15%)  5.62   8 12 26 26 152 184   95 24   54   99

Top Near-Age Comps:  Dave Goltz, John Burkett

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 04, 2007 at 05:28 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Frisco Cali Posted: October 04, 2007 at 06:29 PM (#2560024)
So ZIPS doesn't put a whole lot of stock in Blalock's power surge in limited AB's this year. Seems reasonable.

On a good note, Michael Young gets another 200 hits.
   2. HowardMegdal Posted: October 04, 2007 at 06:45 PM (#2560042)
Ah Victor Diaz- one of these years, you're sure to slug your weight.
   3. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 04, 2007 at 06:48 PM (#2560045)
Man, it looks like the Blue Jays line up without the frontline pitching.

Forgive my ignorance, but who is Taylor Teagarden? That's an interesting line, especially compared to Salty.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 04, 2007 at 06:48 PM (#2560046)
Ah Victor Diaz- one of these years, you're sure to slug your weight.

Now that's mean!
   5. BDC Posted: October 04, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2560049)
As if wasn't bad enough having to watch the 2007 Rangers, without having the 2008 version flashed before my eyes ...
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 04, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2560050)
Forgive my ignorance, but who is Taylor Teagarden? That's an interesting line, especially compared to Salty.

Teagarden was the Rangers' 3rd round draft pick in 2005, but he messed up his elbow in the Arizona and had to have Tommy John surgery. He's still had some pain in his elbow this year, too, but they didn't find any more damage. His primary strength coming out of college on defense was considered his arm, but if that's kinda iffy, it's a concern about him staying there. The Rangers would like him to stay at catcher as long as possible, but they've also been wary about losing him again and he DHed more than he caught this year.
   7. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 04, 2007 at 06:56 PM (#2560054)
Thanks, Dan. If he comes to spring training with a healthy arm, and with the number of teams with a need for young catching, they might have a nice problem to deal with.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 04, 2007 at 06:58 PM (#2560055)
in the Arizona

Almost as bad as "in the Iraq."
   9. Champions Table Posted: October 04, 2007 at 07:00 PM (#2560057)
I got bored one day and added German Duran to my fantasy minor league roster. Anything to say about him (good or bad), Rangers fans?
   10. AROM Posted: October 05, 2007 at 04:43 PM (#2561657)
The Rangers certainly have some nice young options at catcher. When is Marlon Byrd hitting free agency? Right now he looks like he's on the Gary Matthews Jr. career path.
   11. RTSquared is not on the Rangers' DL...yet... Posted: October 05, 2007 at 09:59 PM (#2562169)
I honestly can't believe that there is no one in the Ranger organization that is projected to slug even .500 next season.

(mentally panning through the roster)

What exactly would it take to get Adam Dunn in a Ranger uniform???

*sigh* What happened to the Rangers I grew up loving? The ones where a pitcher making 34 starts with an ERA+ barely over 100 could win 18-20 games a year?
   12. jamcadbury Posted: October 06, 2007 at 02:56 AM (#2563433)
AROM, Byrd is arb-eligible and won't be a free agent until after 2009.
   13. HowardMegdal Posted: October 06, 2007 at 04:08 AM (#2563636)
More importantly- Dan, will you post your Diamond Mind Rosters with projections for 2007? I'm eager to know what to expect in the recently completed season.
   14. jamcadbury Posted: October 08, 2007 at 09:20 PM (#2567758)
FWIW, I did a comparison of Dan's 2007 ZiPS projections compared to the actual numbers put up by the Rangers offense. You can check that out here, if you wish.
   15. DCA Posted: October 12, 2007 at 10:07 PM (#2573250)
I'm taking the over on Millwood's optimistic projection. He's been very consistent in three year cycles ... big year, average year with 200+ IP, mediocre year with few IP. He's due for another big one.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 12, 2007 at 10:14 PM (#2573254)
BTW, While reading your entry JM, I finally figured out why I hate Most Valuable Network's Logo - it's very similar to the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration logo, which always comes in the mail to tell me they want to give me an expensive year sticker for my license plate or warn me that I'm 6 weeks late for emissions testing and they're going to send goons over to murder me.
   17. 8ball Posted: October 20, 2007 at 07:27 PM (#2585116)
Question...any chance you could do a projection for Brandon Boggs, who put up some pretty decent numbers splitting time between high-A and AA this year?
   18. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: October 20, 2007 at 08:21 PM (#2585145)
Kinsler treads water?
   19. Dr. Vaux Posted: October 20, 2007 at 08:42 PM (#2585166)
God, I hate the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration.
   20. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 20, 2007 at 08:51 PM (#2585177)
AROM, Byrd is arb-eligible and won't be a free agent until after 2009.

But according to this he was a free agent a year ago.
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 23, 2007 at 07:06 PM (#2590476)
Byrd wasn't a major league free agent - he simply had enough major league time to elect for minor league free agency at the end of last season after he was outrighted to the minors.

I do find it amusing, however, that as mediocre-to-bad team the Rangers were this season, they still managed to come up with two centerfielders that played better than Sarge Lite this season.
   22. jamcadbury Posted: November 16, 2007 at 10:27 PM (#2617866)
Wow, that resemblance is uncanny between the logos Dan.

I finished Part II of the ZiPS comparisons some time back (which focuses on the pitching), that you can view here.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 16, 2007 at 10:40 PM (#2617886)
Thanks, JM, while I don't really pimp my stuff all that often, I'm always a sucker for attention. I have to admit occasionally googling myself (it's pretty easy since Dan Szymborski is almost always me).
   24. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 20, 2007 at 01:58 AM (#2620678)
Second the Boggs request.

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