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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, September 30, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Nick Johnson*        1b 29 .283 .422 .492 139 474 87 134 40 1 19 69 105 87 5 4
Ryan Zimmerman       3b 23 .282 .348 .501 162 649 100 183 47 4 29 106 65 117 4 4
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.279 .357 .472—————————————————————
Dmitri Young#        1b 34 .287 .352 .459 112 390 50 112 26 1 13 56 38 74 0 1
Ryan Church*        cf 29 .271 .348 .473 132 410 53 111 30 1 17 61 46 100 3 4
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.277 .349 .453—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.277 .346 .455—————————————————————
Wily Mo Pena         rf 26 .269 .332 .476 99 290 40 78 13 1 15 40 25 92 1 2
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.274 .343 .445—————————————————————
Austin Kearns         rf 28 .262 .351 .425 143 515 77 135 34 1 16 64 66 111 3 5
Josh Whitesell*      1b 26 .249 .345 .417 125 381 42 95 20 1 14 48 52 125 2 3
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.272 .336 .422—————————————————————
Michael Restovich     lf 29 .256 .319 .448 107 348 25 89 20 1 15 46 30 97 1 1
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.276 .331 .411—————————————————————
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.274 .329 .404—————————————————————
Felipe Lopez#        ss 28 .264 .344 .383 150 592 82 156 27 4 12 55 64 109 19 5
Ronnie Belliard       2b 33 .270 .329 .405 133 477 57 129 28 0 12 55 37 89 0 1
Larry Broadway*      1b 27 .245 .316 .420 107 355 34 87 21 1 13 49 37 86 1 0
Abraham Nunez#        rf 31 .255 .327 .417 102 345 38 88 18 1 12 50 35 82 3 4
Ryan Langerhans*      cf 28 .232 .334 .388 123 276 43 64 15 2 8 29 40 79 0 2
AVERAGE C——————— c——.260 .321 .400—————————————————————
D’Angelo Jimenez#      2b 30 .245 .346 .350 107 294 34 72 16 0 5 25 44 48 4 3
Alex Escobar         cf 29 .240 .323 .383 52 167 19 40 10 1 4 19 18 41 1 1
Kory Casto*          lf 26 .235 .317 .388 130 443 52 104 25 2 13 54 51 108 3 3
Nook Logan#          cf 28 .264 .332 .351 103 288 40 76 16 3 1 19 20 65 7 2
Jesus Flores         c   23 .243 .295 .412 110 337 35 82 21 0 12 42 18 103 1 1
Robert Fick*        1b 34 .253 .333 .337 88 178 23 45 7 1 2 17 21 32 1 1
Tony Batista         1b 34 .243 .307 .382 78 173 17 42 9 0 5 24 15 27 1 1
Bernie Castro#        2b 28 .270 .320 .347 121 429 61 116 19 4 2 31 30 56 20 6
Brian Schneider*      c   31 .244 .321 .329 113 365 31 89 16 0 5 41 41 56 1 1
Justin Maxwell       cf 24 .229 .290 .386 108 363 41 83 16 1 13 44 27 117 18 6
Tyrell Godwin*        lf 28 .242 .302 .364 116 376 47 91 19 3 7 34 30 69 7 5
Juan Brito           c   28 .242 .290 .367 68 215 15 52 12 0 5 24 14 47 0 0
Brandon Watson*      cf 26 .276 .315 .341 120 434 54 120 14 4 2 25 22 52 13 10
Cristian Guzman#      ss 30 .254 .301 .340 100 335 36 85 13 5 2 22 22 48 4 3
Chris Marrero         lf 19 .223 .276 .373 117 413 37 92 16 2 14 52 30 109 0 3
Brent Abernathy       3b 30 .244 .305 .318 98 324 36 79 12 0 4 27 28 36 7 5
Frank Diaz           rf 24 .233 .266 .356 113 404 42 94 21 1 9 38 16 64 4 3
Tony Blanco         lf 26 .218 .260 .354 66 206 15 45 10 0 6 26   9 57 2 1
Javi Herrera         c   26 .214 .288 .302 85 262 23 56 14 0 3 22 22 47 2 1
Manny Alexander       ss 37 .233 .278 .313 89 300 38 70 13 1 3 24 18 51 6 3
Melvin Dorta         ss 26 .234 .277 .315 117 372 43 87 16 1 4 27 22 39 14 10

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Johnson*          Av            
Zimmerman               Vg Pr      
Young#            Pr       Pr    
Church*                    Vg Pr Av
Pena                     Pr Pr Pr
Kearns                       Fr Vg
Whitesell*          Av            
Restovich           Fr       Av   Fr
Lopez#              Av Fr Pr      
Belliard           Av Av Fr        
Broadway*          Av            
Nunez#                    Vg Pr Vg
Langerhans*                Vg Av Av
Jimenez#            Av Av Fr      
Escobar                   Av Fr Vg
Casto*            Av   Fr   Fr   Fr
Logan#                      Av  
Flores         Av                
Fick*          Pr   Fr       Fr   Fr
Batista           Av   Fr        
Castro#              Vg       Av  
Schneider*      Av                
Maxwell                   Vg Av Vg
Godwin*                    Av Fr Av
Brito         Vg                
Watson*                    Vg Av Vg
Guzman#                  Fr      
Marrero                   Fr   Fr
Abernathy           Av Av Fr   Av Av  
Diaz                     Fr Fr Fr
Blanco                     Av   Av
Herrera         Av                
Alexander               Av Av      
Dorta               Fr Av Fr   Av  

Player Spotlight - Ryan Zimmerman
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .310 .380 .581 162 649 119 201 52 5 38 136 72 103 6 4
Mean         .282 .348 .501 162 649 100 183 47 4 29 106 65 117 4 4  
Pessimistic (15%) .263 .321 .447 152 609 81 160 39 2 23 81 52 123 2 5  

Top Near-Age Comps: Ken Keltner, Andy Carey

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Chad Cordero         26   3.62   5   3 77   0   77.0   73   31 12   25   69
Luis Ayala           30   3.69   6   3 61   1   61.0   65   25   8   16   38
Chris Schroder         29   3.73   5   3 61   0   82.0   73   34   8   34   76
Jon Rauch           29   3.94   6   4 76   0   80.0   76   35 10   25   65
Shawn Hill           27   3.95   6   6 20 20   108.0 110   47   9   28   66
Saul Rivera           30   3.98   5   3 67   0   86.0   83   38   5   40   58
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.07———————————————————————-
Hector Carrasco       38   4.28   4   4 55   3   80.0   75   38 10   34   61
Jesus Colome         30   4.35   3   3 54   0   60.0   61   29   7   26   40
Micah Bowie*          33   4.43   4   3 37   7   67.0   66   33   8   32   49
John Patterson         30   4.47   6   5 22 22   129.0 125   64 18   55 110
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.58————————————————————————
Chris Booker         31   4.71   4   5 62   0   65.0   58   34 10   37   71
Ross Detwiler*        22   4.75   3   3   9   6   36.0   40   19   3   12   17
Brandon Claussen*      29   4.76   6   9 22 22   123.0 130   65 19   45   84
Matt Chico*          25   4.78   8 10 32 32   179.0 191   95 29   67 118
Jason Bergmann         26   4.79   5   7 37 17   124.0 126   66 20   47   96
Billy Traber*        28   4.87   7   9 35 19   133.0 148   72 17   39   71
Ryan Wagner           25   4.89   3   4 56   0   70.0   74   38   8   29   42
Winston Abreu         31   4.99   3   4 60   0   74.0   75   41 14   28   67
Garrett Mock         25   4.99   6 10 26 26   157.0 173   87 23   52 112
Jonathan Albaladejo     25   5.04   4   6 42   2   75.0   79   42 15   25   56
Justin Jones*        23   5.11   7 12 23 22   125.0 145   71 14   43   65
Arnie Munoz*          26   5.17   5   8 51   9   101.0 105   58 16   48   72
Jim Magrane           29   5.21   7 13 32 23   159.0 186   92 21   50   75
Tim Redding           30   5.22   8 12 28 27   157.0 176   91 24   62   80
Brett Campbell         26   5.23   3   6 57   0   74.0   78   43 10   33   55
Jason Simontacchi       34   5.23   5   8 22 13   86.0   99   50 15   24   45
Beltran Perez         26   5.26   8   9 32 19   130.0 148   76 21   46   67
Zechry Zinicola       23   5.29   2   3 46   0   63.0   68   37   6   33   34
Edward Valdez         28   5.30   4   7 37 15   124.0 143   73 18   46   70
John Lannan*          23   5.30   8 11 31 28   168.0 189   99 23   70   73
Daniel Foli           27   5.38   2   4 37   1   72.0   78   43   9   38   43
Mike Bacsik*          30   5.43   6 10 32 22   141.0 167   85 32   36   73
Josh Hall           27   5.44   5   9 27 19   129.0 145   78 22   50   69
Collin Balester       22   5.50   5   9 31 30   167.0 193 102 27   61   86
Levale Speigner       27   5.52   5   8 37 14   119.0 144   73 15   36   59
Enrique Gonzalez       25   5.55   7 12 31 30   175.0 200 108 25   65   87
Chris Michalak*        37   5.57   6 11 25 22   134.0 157   83 27   41   58
Joel Hanrahan         26   5.85   6 11 28 27   140.0 154   91 26   77   91
Craig Stammen         24   6.19   5 13 33 28   157.0 196 108 29   58   77
Michael O’Connor*      27   6.29   5 10 24 24   133.0 155   93 32   50   82
Mike Hinckley*        25   6.74   4 14 29 28   159.0 200 119 27   73   64

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Shawn Hill
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  2.98   9   4 23 23 130 119   43   6   27   86
Mean           3.92   6   6 20 20 108 110   47   9   28   66  
Pessimistic (15%)  4.97   4   6 17 17   87   97   48 10   30   45

Top Near-Age Comps:  Vern Ruhle, Garrett Stephenson

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Dan assumes the Washington Nationals are playing in a league-average park.  This reduces
the confidence in individual National projections because of the uncertainty about how
the new park will play.

Dan Szymborski Posted: September 30, 2007 at 11:51 PM | 49 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. steagles Posted: October 01, 2007 at 12:23 AM (#2552385)
great job dan.

you might want to revise your rating of albaladejo, though. i think he's a lock for a big 2008 in the nats bullpen.
   2. danup Posted: October 01, 2007 at 01:53 AM (#2552429)
If Ford Madox Ford were a Nationals Nick Johnson's ZiPS projection would be the saddest story he'd ever heard.
   3. a bebop a rebop Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:00 AM (#2552432)
Those are a bunch of strikingly average hitters for their respective positions.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:05 AM (#2552436)
Well, this is a strikingly average team.

I really can't wait to see how the new Nationals stadium plays.
   5. Banta Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:12 AM (#2552437)
Oh god, new ZiPS already!?!

The regular season is really over, isn't it?
   6. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:16 AM (#2552439)
The regular season is really over, isn't it?


No, not until tomorrow night.

I hope Nick Johnson can just stay healthy next year. He deserves a break.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:18 AM (#2552441)
Oh god, new ZiPS already!?!

I like getting them out as early as possible for a few reasons - I like having the initial projections done before the flood of free agent signings results in me spending more time writing entries and for fans of 22 teams, there isn't much to talk about regarding their team until the free agent period starts.
   8. Banta Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2552443)
I didn't mean to sound like I don't appreciate it. I'm glad they're coming... it was more of me realizing that the season is actually (nearly) over.
   9. Russ Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:30 AM (#2552447)
you might want to revise your rating of albaladejo, though. i think he's a lock for a big 2008 in the nats bullpen.


Ahh... it's not a real off-season until there's a decent projection for a player that David Littlefield gave away for nothing.
   10. Chris Needham Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:32 AM (#2552449)
I really can't wait to see how the new Nationals stadium plays.

Near as I can tell, the dimensions are pretty close to Jacobs Field, just without the giant wall.

Nobody knows how the wind will play, of course.
   11. J. Cross Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:51 AM (#2552459)
Oh god, new ZiPS already!?!

I like getting them out as early as possible for a few reasons - I like having the initial projections done before the flood of free agent signings results in me spending more time writing entries and for fans of 22 teams, there isn't much to talk about regarding their team until the free agent period starts.


Much appreciated, Dan. Usually I have to start my fantasy baseball off-season without a full set of predictions out there.

Near as I can tell, the dimensions are pretty close to Jacobs Field, just without the giant wall.

Nobody knows how the wind will play, of course.


We should know how the air will play since it's the same air as in the old park. How does the air in DC rate? More like the thick air in San Diego or the thin air in Texas?
   12. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 01, 2007 at 02:55 AM (#2552465)
Very cool to see so quickly, Dan!

Usually I have to start my fantasy baseball off-season without a full set of predictions out there.

I'm in the same boat, they are a great resource.
   13. Justin T is going to crush some tacos Thursday Posted: October 01, 2007 at 03:06 AM (#2552475)
We should know how the air will play since it's the same air as in the old park.


There are other factors to consider here. They are moving from an enclosed stadium to...something else. The Reds moved from Riverfront and GABP is constructed in a way that it funnels wind toward the fences.
   14. a bebop a rebop Posted: October 01, 2007 at 03:08 AM (#2552477)
Reverse alphabetical order, too! Pretty exciting for a Rangers fan.
   15. Corey Hart Posted: October 01, 2007 at 03:50 AM (#2552498)
Two of the top three projected players are first baseman. Can/should/will Dmitri play LF, and will/should the Nats trade Johnson or Dmitri?
   16. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 01, 2007 at 04:13 AM (#2552529)
The greatness of BTF never ceases to amaze me.
   17. shoewizard Posted: October 01, 2007 at 04:24 AM (#2552538)
Reverse alphabetical order, too! Pretty exciting for a Rangers fan.

This pisses me off to no end. ;) J/K
   18. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: October 01, 2007 at 04:34 AM (#2552545)
Does Brian Schneider's defense continue to rate well? Because if he does, he should be a very valuable trade commidity.
   19. Frisco Cali Posted: October 01, 2007 at 04:37 AM (#2552547)
Allow me to be the first idiot to say that you have them projected for a gazillion homers/ab's/whatevers and an unpossible number of wins/innings etc.
   20. Mark R. Garber Posted: October 01, 2007 at 04:46 AM (#2552552)

Allow me to be the first idiot to say that you have them projected for a gazillion homers/ab's/whatevers and an unpossible number of wins/innings etc.


A few years ago, Szym said something to the effect that not reading the disclaimer under the projections amounted to a legal waiver of any and all rights to not getting murdered by Szym. I'm not quite sure that would stand up to legal scrutiny, but he seemed to think so.
   21. Frisco Cali Posted: October 01, 2007 at 04:50 AM (#2552555)
And who would blame him?
   22. chris p Posted: October 01, 2007 at 12:47 PM (#2552647)
dan, you seem to have sorted the batters, but haven't included the stat you used to sort them. i would consider adding that stat to the table, whatever it is.
   23. Chris Needham Posted: October 01, 2007 at 01:03 PM (#2552660)
We should know how the air will play since it's the same air as in the old park. How does the air in DC rate? More like the thick air in San Diego or the thin air in Texas?

As someone else said, it's the wind patterns that will change. RFK was strange in that there was no lower bowl seating in the outfield. Right behind the wall was the upper deck, and there were plenty of high fly balls that seemed to get knocked down by a wind that swooped in and down the face of the seats. As far as how 'thick' the air is, if there's a more humid place than DC, I don't want to see it.


Two of the top three projected players are first baseman. Can/should/will Dmitri play LF, and will/should the Nats trade Johnson or Dmitri?
There's been a rumor that the Nats would play Dmitri in the outfield. Given how he's swelled up to about 400 pounds and that they seem happy with Kearns and Pena, I'm not sure there's a place for him. I think the Nats would be happy to trade either him or NJ, but, really, is there much of a market for either of them given their weight/injuries, etc?


Does Brian Schneider's defense continue to rate well? Because if he does, he should be a very valuable trade commidity.

He's a tremendous defensive catcher, with a strong accurate arm. And his pitch-calling abilities have taken on mythic proportions this year since the team's ERA is under the 10.60 that most everyone expected. If someone wanted him -- he's under contract for the next two years at ~$9 million -- I think the Nats would definitely listen, especially with the emergence of Flores.
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 01, 2007 at 04:07 PM (#2552947)
dan, you seem to have sorted the batters, but haven't included the stat you used to sort them. i would consider adding that stat to the table, whatever it is.

RC/27. I'm a little worried about adding it because the preformatted text will start to stretch the page with just a few more characters.
   25. The Original SJ Posted: October 02, 2007 at 02:01 PM (#2555971)
Nick Johnson? 400 ABs?

I'll take the under.
   26. plim Posted: October 02, 2007 at 05:38 PM (#2556323)
15. Corey Hart Posted: September 30, 2007 at 11:50 PM (#2552498)

Two of the top three projected players are first baseman. Can/should/will Dmitri play LF, and will/should the Nats trade Johnson or Dmitri?


are there talks about moving/benching/trading wmp? if not, i'm not sure what the nats are gonna do with all these 1b/corner of types...
   27. plim Posted: October 02, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2556324)
oh, i see chris already touched upon that..
   28. OCF Posted: October 02, 2007 at 06:02 PM (#2556360)
As far as how 'thick' the air is, if there's a more humid place than DC, I don't want to see it.

Humid air is lighter than dry air.* That effect is small, of course. Hot air is lighter than cool air, which makes more difference. That's why the West Coast ballparks have "heavy" air - it's because the midsummer temperatures are lower. And altitude makes a huge difference - D.C. is very near sea level, but so are Bos, NY, Phi, Bal, Fla, TB, Hou.

However, greater humidity would lead to greater water absorption into balls, making heavier balls. Oh, and there's no way DC's humidity, day in and day out, averaged over the entire summer, could match Miami's. (I mean "absolute" humidity, which is the amount of water in the air. This is most often expressed - nonlinearly - as dew point.)

*Avogadro's principle. Equal number of molecules per unit volume for equal temperature and pressure. Air is mostly nitrogen (molecular weight 28) and oxygen (32) - call it average molecular weight of about 29. Water vapor has weight 18.
   29. Kyle S Posted: October 02, 2007 at 06:06 PM (#2556367)
Jeez, Dan, took you long enough to post these :)
   30. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 02, 2007 at 06:08 PM (#2556370)
Oh god, new ZiPS already!?!

I like getting them out as early as possible for a few reasons - I like having the initial projections done before the flood of free agent signings results in me spending more time writing entries and for fans of 22 teams, there isn't much to talk about regarding their team until the free agent period starts.
He also wanted to get the Nats out before Nick Johnson had his 2008 injury.
   31. Chris Needham Posted: October 02, 2007 at 07:13 PM (#2556473)
He's still working on his 2006 one. Let's let him get his '07 one in first!
   32. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: October 02, 2007 at 09:06 PM (#2556683)
ah, sweet ZIPS. Thanks Dan.

how did I survive the offseason before I found BTF?
   33. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 02, 2007 at 09:37 PM (#2556760)
"how did I survive the offseason before I found BTF?"

Recreational cannibalism?
   34. 1k5v3L Posted: October 02, 2007 at 09:38 PM (#2556763)
Reverse alphabetical order, too! Pretty exciting for a Rangers fan.

This pisses me off to no end. ;) J/K


Thank god AZ's projections will come last so I'd have less offseason time to be depressed
   35. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 02, 2007 at 09:41 PM (#2556768)

However, greater humidity would lead to greater water absorption into balls, making heavier balls. Oh, and there's no way DC's humidity, day in and day out, averaged over the entire summer, could match Miami's. (I mean "absolute" humidity, which is the amount of water in the air. This is most often expressed - nonlinearly - as dew point.)


I don't think that the heaviness of the balls has that much of an impact, but rather, the elasticity/bulk modulus of the ball is much different in a humid environment. In other words, the ball is less bouncy.

I could be wrong, though.
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 02, 2007 at 09:47 PM (#2556782)
Thank god AZ's projections will come last so I'd have less offseason time to be depressed

I think for 3 years in a row, in response to people who are fans of end-alphabet teams disappointed that they have to wait, I promised to do the next year in reverse. I finally remembered that this time. Next year, I'll go by team mascot name (Angels->Yankees). I should be done before FA time regardless.
   37. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: October 03, 2007 at 04:31 PM (#2557648)
bulk modulus of the ball is much different in a humid environment.

the cold has an effect on this as well.. significant shrinkage.
   38. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 12, 2007 at 04:59 PM (#2612173)
No defensive ratings?
   39. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 12, 2007 at 05:42 PM (#2612215)
Fixed.
   40. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 12, 2007 at 05:46 PM (#2612221)
Many thanks!
   41. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: November 12, 2007 at 05:51 PM (#2612229)
15 HR's for Wily Mo sounds about right.
   42. Hendo Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2619972)
Numbers for Guzman seem a bit pessimistic. Bear in mind that he's had his eyes and labrum repaired since the hideous '05 season.

I would expect something a bit closer to his '07 numbers (.329 / .382 / .468).
   43. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2620034)
Numbers for Guzman seem a bit pessimistic. Bear in mind that he's had his eyes and labrum repaired since the hideous '05 season.

I would expect something a bit closer to his '07 numbers (.329 / .382 / .468).

If you mean .264 .311 .350 instead of .254 .301 .340 closer, maybe. :) If you mean "close to those numbers", I'd be very tempted to put up a big wager that he doesn't.

He had a great 3/4 of a season in 2001 and a great 1/3 of a season last year. He has been "teh suck" or close to it in the other 6 seasons. Did you see some fundamental change in approach last year that makes you think that 2007 was anything other than a fluke?
   44. Hendo Posted: November 19, 2007 at 08:32 PM (#2620258)
Did you see some fundamental change in approach last year that makes you think that 2007 was anything other than a fluke?


Yes, I did. Guzman's walk rate was up a bit, and his K's were way down. That suggests to me that he's seeing the ball better.
   45. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:22 PM (#2620369)
Hendo, if he plays vs. the Phils next year, I'll watch for that. I can't remember if he played vs. them this year; if he did, he made no impression on me.
   46. Hendo Posted: November 19, 2007 at 10:13 PM (#2620460)
Guzman didn't play at CBP in '07. When he does in '08, see whether you think he's flailing less at the ball than he did in '05.
   47. Red Robot Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:51 PM (#2677154)
Am I the only person who believes in Shawn Hill?
   48. shoewizard Posted: February 05, 2008 at 08:03 PM (#2684224)
Been discussing with iksvel today the Nationals new park. It looks like the foul ground is considerably smaller, the field is about 16 feet closer to the front row, and the LCF gap is about 10 feet shorter than RFK, the other OF dimensions appear to be fairly close.

Nonetheless, the small foul ground and short LCF gap certainly mean an improved hitting environment for Right Handed Batters compared to RFK.

Dan....when you did these projections, what kind of park factors did you use? Did you base these on RFK's 94-95 Park Factors, or a neutral environment? Should we be giving a mental "bump" to the hitters here?
   49. shoewizard Posted: February 05, 2008 at 08:04 PM (#2684225)
I apologize.....I just saw the last line of the disclaimer, which I glossed over since of course I know the other content by heart.

Sorry.

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