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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

2009, ZiPS In-Season Projections:  Hitters through April 28

This is the first build of what will be a monthly feature for hitters and pitchers, updated ZiPS projections that takes into account the changes in probability new data creates.  I am also including full-season projections, which are the sum of to-date statistics and rest-of-season projections.  Minimum 40 PA required for inclusion and no minor league data is considered.

Spreadsheet for Excel 2003


Projected Full-Season Leaders

Runs
Sizemore - 119
Bay - 119
Utley - 118

Hits
Reyes - 201
Cano - 196
Cabrera - 195

Doubles
Markakis - 52
Roberts - 46
Pedroia - 46

Triples
Reyes - 15
Granderson - 11
Crawford - 10

Home Runs
Howard - 47
Braun - 45
Fielder - 41

Runs Batted In
Pujols - 136
Howard - 133
Braun - 133

Walks
Dunn - 116
Bay - 104
Cust - 104

Strikeouts
Howard - 183
Reynols - 183
Davis - 178

Stolen Bases
Reyes - 58
Ellsbury - 53
Taveras - 45

Dan Szymborski Posted: April 29, 2009 at 04:36 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: April 29, 2009 at 06:16 AM (#3156900)
Why does ZiPS want to make Ryan Howard MVP again?
   2. Danny Posted: April 29, 2009 at 06:36 AM (#3156902)
Chris Davis has 33 Ks in 67 AB. Wow.
   3. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: April 29, 2009 at 07:09 AM (#3156906)
How did Ryan Braun's walk total drop from 45 to 44 given that he's already walked 14 times (against 14 strikeouts)?
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 29, 2009 at 01:11 PM (#3156977)
How did Ryan Braun's walk total drop from 45 to 44 given that he's already walked 14 times (against 14 strikeouts)?

I'm not following. He's now projected to walk 57 times.
   5. J. Bowman, upon reflection, does hate pants Posted: April 29, 2009 at 02:21 PM (#3157063)
For both rest-of-year and season projections, batting and slugging averages match up to the projected hit and AB totals, but projected OBP > (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF). Am I missing something?
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 29, 2009 at 02:26 PM (#3157073)
D'oh! I had a typo in the denominator (I had it as AB+BB+HBP+-SF). I'll fix and re-upload.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 29, 2009 at 02:37 PM (#3157086)
OK, all uploaded now.
   8. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: April 29, 2009 at 04:35 PM (#3157297)
I recommend Dave Cameron's post on this at fangraphs.
   9. danielj Posted: April 29, 2009 at 05:19 PM (#3157392)
Excuse while I go claim Ian Stewart...
   10. Greg K Posted: April 29, 2009 at 05:25 PM (#3157416)
You mean ZiPS is not projecting Marco Scutaro to continue getting a walk a game?
   11. danielj Posted: April 29, 2009 at 05:40 PM (#3157454)
ZiPs like Brewers.
   12. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: April 29, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3157692)
I'm not following. He's now projected to walk 57 times.

Sorry, I was (of course) looking at just his projected walks for the rest of the year. I should stop following Brian Wilson's example.
   13. denDekker, Mattsui (jemile weeks) Posted: May 01, 2009 at 04:12 AM (#3160066)
Excuse while I go claim Ian Stewart...


If you want to do this in fantasy, go right ahead, but if it's number one fandom you seek, you'll have to go through me.
   14. JP Ricciardi Posted: May 04, 2009 at 07:44 PM (#3163343)
Poor Aaron Hill. ZIPS has him turning back into a pumpkin at 3:30 in the afternoon. Only 9 hr and a .746 OPS. He already has hit 6, and his OPS is sitting at .966/

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