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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, March 08, 2009

2009 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9.0 and Excel Spreadsheet, Build 2 (UPDATED)

This build features a number of fixes and updates from the first build.

The Excel spreadsheet now has all teams listed and projections for all the players listed below.

The Diamond Mind disk features a number of small typo fixes and data entry errors, sorts players onto their teams, splits for a few more players.  Since the first build, the following players have been added:  Travis Blackley, Jose Marte, Kyler Newby, Cesar Valdez, Pedro Ciriaco, Todd Redmond, Marcus Mateo, Zach Kroenke, Gilbert de la Vara, Jeff Fulchino, Tyler Lumsden, Drew Sutton, Lee Gronkiewicz, John Rheinecker, Al Reyes, Akinori Otsuka, Clay Hensley, Matthew Buschmann, Brandon Medders, Mike Mussina, Andrew Sisco, Sean Smith, Chin-hui Tsao, Jason Windsor, Jason Anderson, Brandon Claussen, Anthony Ortega, Rafael Rodriguez, Jesus Castillo, Victor Garate, Brent Leach, Omar Aguilar, Eduardo Morlan, Alexander Periard, Ryan Webb, Jae-Kuk Ryu, Jesse English, Luis Perdomo, Charlie Manning, Chase Wright, Howie Clark, Javier Brito, Dan Johnson, Mike Carp, Jesus Guzman, Kala Kaaihue, Mark Trumbo, Reegie Corona, and Casey McGehee.

Projection Disk Build 1 Discussion

Spreadsheet Build 1 Discussion

2009 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9c, Build 2

2009 ZiPS Projections for Excel 2003, Build 2

The next, final build, mainly for “real” season players, will be released in about 2 weeks with 25-man rosters and depth charts and any outstanding bugs fixed.

As always, I encourage anyone using these projections to utilize them in any manner they feel is appropriate, be it entertainment or experimental, with the exception of turning around and selling these projections elsewhere.

——
Calculating projections and making the projection disk are very time-consuming projects that I have always released for free.  There’s no easy utility that dumps my projections simply into Diamond Mind; rather, I have to create players one-by-one.  While I believe in making these available to as wide an audience as possible, I appreciate donations from anyone (made by clicking the button below) who feels that these projections or game disk have provided them with something of value (and have the financial means, obviously).  I thank the regular BTF readers for their support and criticisms over the years, both of which have helped me make improvements in my work.




UPDATE! 3/13

The uploaded spreadsheet and disk have been uploaded with bug fixes and new players.

The new players are Darrell Rasner, Paul Abraham, Steve Bray, Dallas Buck, Jose Ceda, Chris Cody, Vic Darensbourg, Fautino de los Santos, Gabe DeHoyos, J.D. Durbin, Justin Germano, Deolis Guerra, Brad Halsey, Justin Hedrick, Rodrigo Lopez, Mark McLemore, Tomo Ohka, Sean O’Sullivan, Mark Prior (sigh), Tyler Robertson, Brian Rogers, Jorge Sosa, Oswaldo Sosa, Mike Stanton, Will Startup, Madison Bumgarner, Jhoulys Chacin, Joseph Martinez, Ryan Perry, Pete LaForest, Raul Casanova, Adrian Cardenas, Brady Clark, Tony Graffanino, Toby Hall, Wes Hodges, Luis Jimenez, Brennan King, Corey Koskie, Jason Lane, Pablo Ozuna, Ryan Royster, Randy Ruiz, Jonathan Still, and Mitch Jones.

The disk includes some big fixes and updates, including but not limited to UID dupes fixed, Bogusevic becoming dual-role player with hitting projection, 3B rating for Joe Mather, 2B rating for Skip Schumaker, LF rating for Ian Stewart.

This update includes the last of the “official projections.”  If a league still really needs a player, I’ll be happy to give a projection to their commissioner for entry into the league’s disk, but after a month of asking for requests, I really have to cut it off now so that people can get on with their league business and not have to worry about me randomly adding another 20 players in a week.  Now, there may be a few extras on the final “simmable” disk depending on how depth charts turn out (though we have pretty good coverage now), but for the purposes of DMB Projection leagues, I consider this a complete player list for 2009.  I regret not being able to do projection for Viciedo or Tazawa, but I literally have nothing to go on.

The depth charts and lineups are courtesy of SG, ZiPS Best Friend.  I will be tweaking those depth charts and lineups to be consistent with the way I do them and incorporating manager profiles kindly donated by Derek Zumsteg and Chris Needham, for a 25-man roster depth chart/lineup release sometime between the 20th and 30th of the month.

I hope you all enjoy the disk.  There are issues where there will be philosophical differences, such as the predictive value of platoon splits, but I hope the sum creates enjoyment for as many reading this as possible.  And don’t forget that obnoxious donate button - I’ve gotta spoil the g/f after the number of weekends I’ve spent nose deep in Excel and Statistica.  Consider this the Dan Szymborski Pledge Drive and you won’t have to hear it again until next year!

Dan Szymborski Posted: March 08, 2009 at 04:32 AM | 71 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 08, 2009 at 04:18 PM (#3095876)
Hooray! Many thanks Dan! My rainy Sunday afternoon will now be wasted away!
   2. essurfer Posted: March 08, 2009 at 07:48 PM (#3096009)
Thank you very much
   3. Derek Zumsteg Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:06 PM (#3096036)
Do you want us to export manager profiles w/likely team rotations/lineups vLHP/RHP and post them back to you?
   4. Derek Zumsteg Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:26 PM (#3096050)
M's notes: Yuni Betancourt bats RH, Feierabend is probably on the DL for the season, Ichiro's stat line is criminally low.
   5. Derek Zumsteg Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:27 PM (#3096051)
I'll email you an M's manager profile in a second.
   6. Derek Zumsteg Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:48 PM (#3096141)
Here's my current cut at the M's 25-man, w/o bullpen roles
   7. galaxieboi Posted: March 09, 2009 at 03:12 AM (#3096373)
Oh, I think Reegie Corona got picked up by the M's in the Rule 5 draft, Dan. He's listed on the Yankee's roster.

Thanks so very much again. I'll be donating at least what the last two seasons of DMB's disks would've cost me. =D
   8. Derek Zumsteg Posted: March 09, 2009 at 04:29 AM (#3096457)
It's pronounced "Ugueto"
   9. Run Joe Run Posted: March 09, 2009 at 12:44 PM (#3096583)
Dan

Thanks very much for these projections. I use them each year for my fantasy baseball league. I will hit your donation

Thanks
V
   10. Saberseams Posted: March 09, 2009 at 01:13 PM (#3096596)
Is there a reason why Wes Hodges was not included in the projection? Was he just overlooked? I would think a guy who is definitely going to start in AAA if he does not win a bench job in MLB outright would be almost guaranteed to get at least a cup of coffee sometime this year, barring injury.
   11. Saberseams Posted: March 09, 2009 at 01:16 PM (#3096598)
I might add that the Indians released Marte a couple weeks ago to clear a path for Hodges.
   12. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 09, 2009 at 03:36 PM (#3096720)
Dan...

You are killing me. I just did my whole database based on the initial disk. We have a draft to do so we needed to use this disk instead of a further update. Is there anyway for me to update these players without losing all the work I have done on this disk?
   13. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: March 09, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3096744)
DMB likes the ZiPS Tigers a lot more than it likes the ZiPS White Sox.


Wait a second -- there are ZiPS projections for the White Sox?
   14. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 09, 2009 at 04:07 PM (#3096750)
OK, thanks.
   15. threepointpi Posted: March 10, 2009 at 02:51 AM (#3097553)
Here's my current cut at the M's 25-man, w/o bullpen roles


I have a question for everybody out there, regarding this, but mainly regarding computers. I have a mac, so when I download this file (from above, comment #8) all my computer gives me is a bunch of code. Do I need to download a file reading program? Or am I doing it wrong? Or what? Anything helps!

Peace
   16. galaxieboi Posted: March 10, 2009 at 03:40 AM (#3097614)
Oh, your handle should read ichiro!51 per Primer guidelines.

Just kidding.

Don't 'unzip' the file. There are some weird file extensions, .xrm and .xtp i think. Anyways, download it and save it. Don't open it. When you open up DMB, load Dan's 2009 ZiPS season and go to restore. From there just select Derek's file. It should load up on it's own. I can't imagine why a Mac would be different, but all I use are PCs now. Except recording music, but that's not here. Good luck!
   17. jakobscalpel Posted: March 11, 2009 at 09:10 PM (#3100348)
Hey Dan. Thanks again for all your work on this. I'm the jakobscalpel on the yuku forums that is working on the Roster Manager program. I tried running the RM against build 2 but I keep running into duplicated UIDs. I stopped after 4 sets of dupes:

Kala Kaaihue 28028
Kila Kaaihue 28028

Marcus Mateo 1241
Brian Bogusevic 1241

Pedro Ciriaco 1240
Michael Dunn 1240

Cesar Valdez 1239
George Kontos 1239

I saw on your Zips_build_1 post that Luke wrote a program to assign UIDs for players who had not yet received one. Could these dupes have been caused by that program? Do you know if these dupes (and any others) would be straightforward to fix? If not, can you please let me know and I'll add something to the RM to auto assign a UID if a dupe is encountered.
   18. C12H23 Posted: March 11, 2009 at 11:51 PM (#3100539)
Kala and Kila are brothers, but they still deserve their own UIDs. Kala is correct at 28028. Kila should be 28209. Their birthdays are currently the same on the ZiPS disk too, but they should also be different. Kala's birthday is 3/29/1985 and Kila's is 3/29/1984.

As for the other dupes. There are five sets starting with 1237.

Jhonny Nunez 1237 - This is correct.
Jose Marte 1237 - Should be assigned new UID.

Clevelan Santeliz 1238 - This is correct.
Kyler Newby 1238 - Should be assigned new UID.

Cesar Valdez 1239 - Should be assigned new UID.
George Kontos 1239 - This is correct.

Pedro Ciriaco 1240 - Should be assigned new UID.
Michael Dunn 1240 - This is correct.

Marcus Mateo 1241 - Should be assigned new UID.
Brian Bogusevic 1241 - This is correct.

Kris Johnson 1242 - This is correct.
Zachary Kroenke 1242 - Should be assigned new UID.

In addition, Sean Smith has a UID of -1 and should be assigned a new UID.

David
   19. C12H23 Posted: March 12, 2009 at 12:37 AM (#3100589)
While you're doing an update, I noticed a couple of discrepancies between the schedule on the disk and the team schedules on MLB.com.

Tampa Bay @ Boston - April 6, 7, 8 (ZiPS) should be April 6, 8, 9 (MLB.com)
Washington @ Florida - April 6, 8, 9 (ZiPS) should be April 6, 7, 8 (MLB.com)
Atlanta @ Philadelphia - April 5, 8, 9 (ZiPS) should be April 5, 7, 8 (MLB.com)

David
   20. ajs625 Posted: March 12, 2009 at 06:37 PM (#3101268)
Dan - This will be my first year using ZIPS on DMB and I'm really looking forward to it. As we get closer to opening day, do you adjust the individual players ABs/IPs to reflect expected playing time? If not, is there another effective way to have guys play the right amount of time within setting individual playing time limits within DMB on a player by player basis?
   21. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 12, 2009 at 11:28 PM (#3101598)
If you don't mind running another player, Dan, could you do a projection for Mitch Jones?
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 13, 2009 at 04:16 AM (#3101827)
Updated information in the entry area.
   23. ramsyanks09 Posted: March 13, 2009 at 01:03 PM (#3101972)
Hi Dan

Do we just click on the same link as last time for the DMB disk?

Regards
Carmine
   24. jfish26101 Posted: March 13, 2009 at 05:28 PM (#3102243)
Was Alex Gonzalez (SS) overlooked or was he not considered for the disk? I started making my database for the league and he is someone's starting SS and yet I can't find him on the disk.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 13, 2009 at 05:51 PM (#3102268)
I have him under his nickname "Sea Bass." Did his UID not transfer over correctly?
   26. jfish26101 Posted: March 13, 2009 at 07:17 PM (#3102401)
:D

No I see him now, wasn't aware that was common knowledge. I guess I'm not the baseball fan I thought I was. Haha

Thanks.
   27. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 13, 2009 at 07:45 PM (#3102444)

No I see him now, wasn't aware that was common knowledge. I guess I'm not the baseball fan I thought I was. Haha

Thanks.


It's not that common knowledge, the way that "Pudge" is for Ivan Rodriguez. Kevin Millar gave Gonzalez that nickname some years back (apparently because Gonzalez always has that look on his face). I had previously been keeping the Alex Gonzali straight by referring to the as "Bad Alex" and "Worse Alex" but when I first heard about the nickname in 2003, I felt it was a better way to differentiate them.

Now, it's no longer really an issue with the other Gonzalez gone, but I like having little nicknames and jokes sprinkled throughout. For instance, I always had Felix Heredia's short name as "The Run Fairy," which was probably the nickname coined around here that got the most mainstream coverage (not by me).
   28. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 14, 2009 at 04:58 PM (#3102994)
Dan...What is with Philly's Park factors being all 100's?
   29. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 14, 2009 at 04:59 PM (#3102996)
San Diego's are too...this is another thing that I am going to have to update I guess.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 14, 2009 at 05:08 PM (#3103000)
NMU, check your park factor assignments - I use different UIDs for them. The 100s are the New York parks.
   31. E., Hinske Posted: March 14, 2009 at 06:46 PM (#3103115)
Am I nuts or is there something wrong with the runs scored numbers for high end hitters. Pujols with 179 runs? Hanley with 188?
   32. E., Hinske Posted: March 14, 2009 at 06:50 PM (#3103124)
FIgured it out I think - Dan, it looks like the hits column is labelled runs and vice versa.
   33. C12H23 Posted: March 14, 2009 at 09:19 PM (#3103242)
Bobby Abreu's walk splits don't add up to his total walks. As a result his simmed OBP is low. Looks like it's the walks against righthanders that is off.
   34. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 14, 2009 at 09:53 PM (#3103254)
Can someone please tell me how to fix these parks. Thanks.
   35. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 14, 2009 at 10:11 PM (#3103262)
NM,

You just need to change which team goes with which park. Just have a database with the unchanged disk and import the parks from it.

I'll upload an Abreu fix.
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 14, 2009 at 10:17 PM (#3103267)
Abreu's fixed.
   37. jfish26101 Posted: March 14, 2009 at 11:55 PM (#3103297)
Dan, can you just tell us what Abreu's numbers should be so we can edit it? I'd rather not do a merge for 1 player if I don't have to. :p
   38. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 15, 2009 at 12:46 AM (#3103334)
JF,

You can always just stick in a new database and import what you need.

Should be 68 walks against RHP, not 6. That's one I can't figure out.
   39. jfish26101 Posted: March 15, 2009 at 01:56 PM (#3103548)
Thanks as always.

Was there an issue with Pujols, Ramirez etc with one of the columbs being labeled incorrectly? I hadn't run into that. Looking good I think, started building my database and have not run into any problems so far. Thanks again.
   40. MrMet33 Posted: March 15, 2009 at 04:08 PM (#3103611)
Everytime I try to migrate, the 2009 schedule is disappearing...what am I doing wrong. I even tried to extract out of the ZiPs, and create a new schedule by importing, but the schedule is not accurate when I do that.

Help?
   41. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 15, 2009 at 04:18 PM (#3103618)
Not sure what the schedule problem is. You can fix that simply by exporting it to a file and importing it wheever you need it.

The column issue is one the spreadsheet - I have H and R reversed.
   42. MrMet33 Posted: March 15, 2009 at 04:22 PM (#3103622)
When I import the file to a new schedule, the first game is Red Sox at Reds (4/5/09). Not sure where that schedule comes from.
   43. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 15, 2009 at 05:10 PM (#3103642)
Mr. Met, that just means you have a different team ID structure than my disk. The schedule is assigned by local team ID. The IDs to get the schedule to work are:

Arizona 1
Atlanta 2
Baltimore 3
Boston 4
Chicago (N) 5
Chicago (A) 6
Cincinnati 7
Cleveland 8
Colorado 9
Detroit 10
Florida 11
Kansas City 12
Houston 13
Los Angeles (A) 14
Los Angeles (N) 15
Milwaukee 16
Minnesota 17
New York (N) 18
New York (A) 19
Oakland 20
Philadelphia 21
Pittsburgh 22
San Diego 23
San Francisco 24
Seattle 25
St. Louis 26
Tampa Bay 27
Texas 28
Toronto 29
Washington 30
   44. MrMet33 Posted: March 15, 2009 at 05:16 PM (#3103649)
hmm...my team id's are much different, but it won't let me edit team ID's. strange, since I've never had any compatibility issues with DMB released schedules. Wonder why I'm the only one having this problem.
   45. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 15, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3103654)
If you can send me a list of your team IDs, I'll export the schedule to a text file and replace all my team IDs to your team IDs and make you one that will work with your structure today or tomorrow.
   46. C12H23 Posted: March 15, 2009 at 06:41 PM (#3103699)
If MrMet's team IDs match those on the 2008 DMB Projection disk, I have a modified version of the 2009 ZiPS schedule that will work.

David
   47. MrMet33 Posted: March 15, 2009 at 08:07 PM (#3103751)
The UID matches, which makes it possible to migrate projections, but the Team "ID"s don't match...
   48. MrMet33 Posted: March 15, 2009 at 08:30 PM (#3103786)
Thanks everyone who has responded. It appears I had an older Team ID sequence. Fortunately, David Pyke of DMB made a schedule that works with the old team IDs. Thanks to Dan for his quick and persistent responses and ultimate helpfulness.
   49. bucbeatle Posted: March 17, 2009 at 08:36 PM (#3105968)
The above discussion indicates that there are splits for the players. I don't see any splits on any players. Is there something I need to set, or are there no splits?
   50. bucbeatle Posted: March 17, 2009 at 08:40 PM (#3105980)
Disregard my last comment. I had to rebuild the indexes and now the splits are showing up.
   51. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 23, 2009 at 04:08 AM (#3111203)
I still haven't been able to fix the Padres and Phillies parks.
   52. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 23, 2009 at 05:32 AM (#3111222)
NMU, it's probably best, if you only have 2 parks left improper, to just swap all the info.
   53. C12H23 Posted: March 23, 2009 at 05:57 PM (#3111673)
NMUWildcat027: The park factors for Citizen's Bank Park and PETCO Park are correct in both builds that Dan has released so far. What changes have you made to the database, if any? Did you migrate from a previous season database? Are those two ballparks actually assigned to any teams in your league?

David
   54. rickyb215 Posted: March 25, 2009 at 08:43 AM (#3113922)
Hello Dan & all... I'm a newbie & Diamond Mind pointed me in your direction to get projections for the 2009 season. Apparently I need a bit of elementary coaching on the proper method for downloading these projections, as I've had no luck on my own, despite reading the tips above. Would someone be so kind as to take me step-by-step thru the process? I've got Dan's ZIP file saved to my desktop - what next? Much appreciated!
   55. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 25, 2009 at 12:26 PM (#3113957)
Ricky, the best instructions are the ones Dave Pyke wrote at http://dmbforum.yuku.com/topic/5878
   56. rickyb215 Posted: March 25, 2009 at 06:18 PM (#3114399)
Great, thanks, I'll check it out.
   57. Cowboy Popup Posted: March 25, 2009 at 06:27 PM (#3114419)
Hey Dan, are you still planning to do a Yankees ZIPs write up even though you already released the final spreadsheet? Thanks.
   58. dave54 Posted: March 25, 2009 at 11:23 PM (#3114780)
Dan: My apologies if someone has already brought this up, but in going through the Rays roster for 09 I noticed that you had the reliever Scot Shields instead of James Shields, the starter. Thanks for your efforts.
   59. Trudger Posted: March 25, 2009 at 11:27 PM (#3114787)
Hi Dan....THank u so much for doing the Projection for Diamond Mind. I plan on sending a donation. Will there be one more update before the season??
Don B
   60. ramsyanks Posted: March 31, 2009 at 01:22 AM (#3119445)
Hi Dan

Will the 25 man rosters be released soon?
   61. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 31, 2009 at 01:26 AM (#3119451)

Will the 25 man rosters be released soon?


Yes, I too would like them before the teams themselves have decided their rosters. Can you make this happen Dan?
   62. nemodomi Posted: March 31, 2009 at 08:39 PM (#3120406)
Will the 25 man rosters be released soon?


Yes, I too would like them before the teams themselves have decided their rosters. Can you make this happen Dan?


And if so, how?
   63. ramsyanks Posted: April 02, 2009 at 07:13 PM (#3122406)
Dan o' Dan where art thou Dan?
   64. nemodomi Posted: April 05, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3124748)
"I will be tweaking those depth charts and lineups to be consistent with the way I do them and incorporating manager profiles kindly donated by Derek Zumsteg and Chris Needham, for a 25-man roster depth chart/lineup release sometime between the 20th and 30th of the month."

Dan, would you be kind enough to let us know whether the above-mentioned release is still in the works? Thanks in advance.

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