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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
2009 ZIPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9.0, Build 1
To install, create a new empty database in Diamond Mind 9.0 by selecting File—>Create New Empty Database. Name the new database anything you want it to and then hit File—>Restore and select the ZIP file that you download.
Event tables for projections are for the home park/league of the player’s most recent team and league. Players are not assigned to teams currently; that’s the next project for this week, but I wanted to get this first build out because a lot of leagues need it.
The schedule is courtesy of SG at http://www.replacementlevel.com. The UIDs for individual players are contributed courtesy of Luke Kraemer of Diamond Mind, who took the time to actually whip up a program to map players to their universal IDs used by Diamond Mind. So, as such, all players have their correct universal ID, with Luke assigning low numbers to players that have never been given an “official” UID (there are some 250 of them).
All hitters and pitchers that have enough sample size for their platoon split differential from league-average platoon split are given estimated platoon splits based on their career differentials. This is an ongoing debate and I feel that this is the most honest way to do projected splits - the sample size needed for projectability is actually quite high. Andy Dolphin has surmised something in the 3-4K range and I’ve verified that on my own independently (relief pitchers tend to have wider swings so you’ll see a lot of pitchers here that are short of the normal sample size threshold with projected splits, like Schoeneweis and Bradford.
All hitters with 200 career plate appearances are given those batting stats in their event table, pro-rated to 100 plate appearances. I have made an exception for Micah Owings as he’s used in a differing tactical manner, so I’ve used his combination MLB/minor league translation lines, which are quite good. I previously did the same for Brooks Kieschnick when he started pitching again.
Depth charts are to follow as spring training goes on and positional battles become clearer.
If you’re a Diamond Mind user on Vista and getting the error “Unable to build database indexes,” check out this thread for the fix.
One of the weaknesses of the engine (a very few!) is that DMB has always had difficulty dealing with swing pitchers. DMB typically uses the “Poor” stamina rating as a way to discourage good pitchers with only a few starts being used as shutdown relievers, along with pitching limits. In order to create more flexibility for league commissioners (and curiosity for everyone else, the reason I originally made it!), I have available a Pitcher Conversion Tool. Just to illustrate an example (from an e-mail query a few weeks ago):
Phil Coke of the Yankees is projected (if he played with the team) to have a 4.91 in 19 starts and 14 relief appearances. The reality though, is that if he were used as a full-time reliever, his ERA would likely be lower than 4.91 and is used as a full-time starter, his ERA would be higher. If you input his stats into the conversion tool, the spreadsheet will calculate that he would likely have a 4.17 ERA in 69 IP as a full-time reliever and a 5.10 ERA in 136 IP as a full-time starter. This gives league commissioners some discretion over player usage and is obviously, completely voluntary, and also shouldn’t be used for situations that would stretch reality (like turning Joe Nathan into a full-time starter). This tool is based off of historical differences between start and relief performance for every multiple-role pitcher since 1920.
Obviously, this is also an excellent place for any bug reports and additional player requests.
Dan is a fan of goods and services. If you find that ZiPS projections meet your needs and wish to transfer the ability to exchange currency for goods and services to Dan, he would be very grateful. Suggested donation is $50,000,000.00, but Dan sees no problem with lighter sums and appreciates all contributions, especially in hard economic times.
—CHANGE LOG FOR END-OF-WEEK RELEASE—
SMALL UPDATE 3/3 10:14PM
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