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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

2009 ZIPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9.0, Build 1

This is the first build of the projection disk for DMB 9.0.

To install, create a new empty database in Diamond Mind 9.0 by selecting File—>Create New Empty Database.  Name the new database anything you want it to and then hit File—>Restore and select the ZIP file that you download.

Event tables for projections are for the home park/league of the player’s most recent team and league.  Players are not assigned to teams currently; that’s the next project for this week, but I wanted to get this first build out because a lot of leagues need it.

The schedule is courtesy of SG at http://www.replacementlevel.com.  The UIDs for individual players are contributed courtesy of Luke Kraemer of Diamond Mind, who took the time to actually whip up a program to map players to their universal IDs used by Diamond Mind.  So, as such, all players have their correct universal ID, with Luke assigning low numbers to players that have never been given an “official” UID (there are some 250 of them).

All hitters and pitchers that have enough sample size for their platoon split differential from league-average platoon split are given estimated platoon splits based on their career differentials.  This is an ongoing debate and I feel that this is the most honest way to do projected splits - the sample size needed for projectability is actually quite high.  Andy Dolphin has surmised something in the 3-4K range and I’ve verified that on my own independently (relief pitchers tend to have wider swings so you’ll see a lot of pitchers here that are short of the normal sample size threshold with projected splits, like Schoeneweis and Bradford.

All hitters with 200 career plate appearances are given those batting stats in their event table, pro-rated to 100 plate appearances.  I have made an exception for Micah Owings as he’s used in a differing tactical manner, so I’ve used his combination MLB/minor league translation lines, which are quite good.  I previously did the same for Brooks Kieschnick when he started pitching again.

Depth charts are to follow as spring training goes on and positional battles become clearer.

If you’re a Diamond Mind user on Vista and getting the error “Unable to build database indexes,” check out this thread for the fix.

One of the weaknesses of the engine (a very few!) is that DMB has always had difficulty dealing with swing pitchers.  DMB typically uses the “Poor” stamina rating as a way to discourage good pitchers with only a few starts being used as shutdown relievers, along with pitching limits.  In order to create more flexibility for league commissioners (and curiosity for everyone else, the reason I originally made it!), I have available a Pitcher Conversion Tool.  Just to illustrate an example (from an e-mail query a few weeks ago):

Phil Coke of the Yankees is projected (if he played with the team) to have a 4.91 in 19 starts and 14 relief appearances.  The reality though, is that if he were used as a full-time reliever, his ERA would likely be lower than 4.91 and is used as a full-time starter, his ERA would be higher.  If you input his stats into the conversion tool, the spreadsheet will calculate that he would likely have a 4.17 ERA in 69 IP as a full-time reliever and a 5.10 ERA in 136 IP as a full-time starter.  This gives league commissioners some discretion over player usage and is obviously, completely voluntary, and also shouldn’t be used for situations that would stretch reality (like turning Joe Nathan into a full-time starter).  This tool is based off of historical differences between start and relief performance for every multiple-role pitcher since 1920.

Obviously, this is also an excellent place for any bug reports and additional player requests.

Dan is a fan of goods and services.  If you find that ZiPS projections meet your needs and wish to transfer the ability to exchange currency for goods and services to Dan, he would be very grateful.  Suggested donation is $50,000,000.00, but Dan sees no problem with lighter sums and appreciates all contributions, especially in hard economic times.




—CHANGE LOG FOR END-OF-WEEK RELEASE—
40-man rosters and NRIs assigned to teams
New players (so far):  Travis Blackley, Pedro Ciriaco, Jose Marte, Kyler Newby, Cesar Valdez, Todd Redmond, Marcus Mateo, Al Reyes, Dan Johnson, Akinori Otsuka
Platoon splits for Griffey, Phillips, and Sexson
Backwards Schedule Fix

SMALL UPDATE 3/3 10:14PM
SG has sent me a fixed version of the schedule, so I have updated the disk with this evening’s work.  The players above through Marcus Mateo are now on the disk, Carlos Guillen has an Arm range, Javier Lopez’s GB rating is displayed properly, Gaby Hernandez has 65 strikeouts instead of 656 strikeouts, and 8 teams have their 40-man rosters and non-roster invitees uploaded.  The end-of-week disk is still coming but I wanted to get an update with that proper schedule up.

Dan Szymborski Posted: March 03, 2009 at 05:50 AM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. ramsyanks Posted: March 03, 2009 at 06:47 PM (#3091349)
Hi Dan

Great Job and thanks. The Yankees sked seems wrong. they open on road and they open the new stadium Apr 16th against Cle. The Sked is backwards.

Thanks
   2. HowardMegdal Posted: March 03, 2009 at 08:32 PM (#3091509)
So just to be clear, it isn't my fault that none of the teams have players? How do I go about adding them to teams?
   3. HowardMegdal Posted: March 03, 2009 at 08:35 PM (#3091517)
Never mind- got it.
   4. HowardMegdal Posted: March 03, 2009 at 08:38 PM (#3091531)
Is one-by-one the only way to do this?
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 03, 2009 at 08:44 PM (#3091546)
Is one-by-one the only way to do this?


I'm release an update in a few days!
   6. HowardMegdal Posted: March 03, 2009 at 08:50 PM (#3091563)
Hey, I'm thankful for this! Just wondering if there was a shortcut for me in the meantime.

Hope I don't sound ungrateful.
   7. C12H23 Posted: March 03, 2009 at 09:05 PM (#3091575)
Just wondering if there was a shortcut for me in the meantime.


If you have DMB's 2008 Season Disk, or even last year's ZiPS disk, you could migrate it to the 2009 ZiPS Disk. That would get you the players on the teams they played for in 2008.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 03, 2009 at 09:25 PM (#3091611)
Hey, I'm thankful for this! Just wondering if there was a shortcut for me in the meantime.


Time machine?

Trust me, if there were some shortcuts, I would've taken them myself!
   9. HowardMegdal Posted: March 03, 2009 at 10:22 PM (#3091691)
Trust me, if there were some shortcuts, I would've taken them myself!

This makes sense, of course.
   10. sposfan Posted: March 04, 2009 at 02:22 AM (#3091901)
Hey Dan!

Just wanted to say thanks for all your hard work and for sharing it with everyone too, especially this year!
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 04, 2009 at 04:13 AM (#3091968)
There's a small update (see bottom of entry)
   12. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: March 04, 2009 at 05:12 AM (#3092005)
Anyone run some season simulations yet?
   13. monkhenry Posted: March 04, 2009 at 12:53 PM (#3092091)
I've run a few simulations and it seems Justin Upton's errors in CF is out of line. I just finished a season and Upton had 20 errors playing all year in CF.
   14. monkhenry Posted: March 04, 2009 at 12:56 PM (#3092093)
Other than that, everything else " seems " OK.

Thanks for all your work, as soon as I figure out Pay Pal , I'll send a donation.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 04, 2009 at 01:52 PM (#3092104)
20 is a lot! I just ran 10 seasons (Diamondbacks vs. Orioles) 0with Upton in center and I'm getting an average of 11.8 per 162 games. That doesn't seem higher than it should be, so maybe you got unlucky. Upton does make a ton of errors - his .939 fielding percentage in the majors is something you see from a 3B!
   16. steagles Posted: March 04, 2009 at 04:05 PM (#3092170)
is it possible to get drew sutton on the disc?
   17. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 05, 2009 at 03:25 PM (#3093270)
I am in a league with randomized divisions. Does anyone know a way to create a schedule for my league that would mirror MLB's with the clubs in different divisions. The schedule generator in DMB gave us a weird schedule with a ton of double headers and unpredictable series lengths. One of the teams had to play 3 double headers in the last week of the season while fighting for a playoff spot, and their pitching was decimated. It seems like there would be a way to do a simple substitution, but I am no programmer. Any input would be greatly appreciated.
   18. C12H23 Posted: March 05, 2009 at 06:07 PM (#3093448)
It sounds like you probably used one of the schedule templates that DMB comes with to create your league schedule last season. Is the league and division structure exactly the same as MLB uses (i.e. 2 leagues, 6 divisions, 30 teams, 162 games, with inter-league games)?

You could create your schedule from a template again this season, but start by saving the schedule from an unmodified copy of the 2009 ZiPS disk to a DMB schedule template. After you've moved the teams around in your league database, as long as the league and division structure is the same, you can create your schedule from the template you saved.
   19. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 05, 2009 at 06:26 PM (#3093479)
It has an identical league structure. I will have to try that. I am not sure I understand it completely, but I will give it a shot.
   20. C12H23 Posted: March 05, 2009 at 06:34 PM (#3093490)
If you run into trouble, send a backup of your league database with a brief note about the schedule you are looking for to Diamond Mind support (.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address))
   21. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 05, 2009 at 07:26 PM (#3093563)
Thank you
   22. Rays&Sox; Posted: March 06, 2009 at 01:48 AM (#3094059)
Jesus Guzman?
   23. Shibal Posted: March 06, 2009 at 04:17 AM (#3094153)
Is there a way to read these files without DMB? I'd like to see the split projections if possible...I've got me a mad fetish for hitting splits.
   24. NMUWildcat027 Posted: March 06, 2009 at 04:21 AM (#3094155)
You could probably have someone generate a report with the program, but there are so few splits that I doubt it would be that interesting to you. There are not that many major splits, and it affects so few players that combing through all the information would probably take more time then it was worth. I am not against what Dan did, but I don't think you are going to find anything that exciting...the players that have splits are pretty known for their splits like Jose Guillen, there aren't a lot of surprises because no minor league data is dependable so the splits guys are all seasoned seasoned veterans.
   25. AstroDeke Posted: March 06, 2009 at 09:34 AM (#3094228)
Is it at all possible to have the teams ID# match the DMB disk? In other words, the teams on the ZiPS are grouped all together and listed alphabetically. On the DMB projection disks the teams are grouped alphabetically but by division thus causing a mismatch in the league and team structure I have set up and causing the schedule to be off from the actual schedule. I thought about just changing the ID#'s on the schedule but realized that's over 2400 games to change. If the team ID's can't be matched with the DMB disk, is there another way to do it since the team ID #'s can't be edited?
   26. jfish26101 Posted: March 06, 2009 at 10:23 AM (#3094230)
You can go to the organizer and edit each teams UID and ID to match whatever your league uses I believe. That should be very quick and painless. I believe I changed my league's slightly so I'll probably have to tinker with them regardless to get them to load into the encyclopedia at the end of the year.
   27. C12H23 Posted: March 06, 2009 at 03:45 PM (#3094360)
AstroDeke: I have a copy of the 2009 schedule setup to work with the IDs used on the sd2008 disk which should be the same as the proj2008 disk. Send a note to supportATdiamond-mind.com with a few details about what you're looking for.

David
   28. ramsyanks09 Posted: March 06, 2009 at 04:02 PM (#3094375)
Dan

Will the build with players assigned to there current teams be coming sometime today or this weekend?

Thanks in advance!!!
   29. lontjr Posted: March 07, 2009 at 01:32 AM (#3095031)
Anyone know anything about this error on attempting the restore: "Invalid league stat transfer file C:\dmb9\season disks\ZiPS2009.01.zip". I am running XP, DMB 9c. Thanks!
   30. C12H23 Posted: March 07, 2009 at 02:13 AM (#3095048)
Anyone know anything about this error on attempting the restore: "Invalid league stat transfer file C:\dmb9\season disks\ZiPS2009.01.zip". I am running XP, DMB 9c. Thanks!


It sounds like you tried to use the Install league database command rather than the Restore command. Try using the Restore command from the File menu.
   31. lontjr Posted: March 07, 2009 at 03:03 AM (#3095060)
It sounds like you tried to use the Install league database command rather than the Restore command. Try using the Restore command from the File menu.


No, that's not it, I was doing restore. But I worked on it some more. I can't back up a database (error message says problem in "Dynazip"). So I think there's something wrong with my dmb9 install. I copied it over from my dead C drive on my old, virus-ridden computer. The game engine works, but there must be something missing. I'll have to dig out my old CD. Thanks for the help.
   32. ramsyanks Posted: March 07, 2009 at 06:50 PM (#3095398)
Hi Dan

I noticed Rich Harden only has 17 starts and a 7-1 record. Is there a reason for such a low start total?
   33. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 08, 2009 at 02:24 AM (#3095734)
I like this because it doesn't have any Chicago White Sox, which would make baseball a much better game.
   34. Derek Zumsteg Posted: March 08, 2009 at 03:21 AM (#3095758)
40-man rosters and NRIs assigned to teams


I just downloaded the file (as *.01.zip) and some teams have rosters while others do not. This version appears to have the rosters completed only through Cleveland.
   35. Derek Zumsteg Posted: March 08, 2009 at 03:28 AM (#3095759)
And if it's all useful, let me know and I'll do the M's and hand it back.
   36. Derek Zumsteg Posted: March 08, 2009 at 05:37 AM (#3095779)
I don't think Jared Wells is sure where he's playing on any given day. He probably calls his agent when he wakes up.
   37. AstroDeke Posted: March 08, 2009 at 05:56 AM (#3095782)
C12H23 if you have a copy of the 2009 MLB schedule that has the same team ID setup used in DMB, then that's exactly what I'm looking for. The UIDs can be changed but there's no way to edit the IDs through the DMB organizer. Your schedule would save me a ton of work. The very thought of editing the schedule to change the team IDs used in ZiPS to work the way they do in DMB, depresses me.
   38. Trudger Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:50 PM (#3096145)
Help! I am not that computer literate. I am not sure how to load the Projection 2009 season to my DMB. I get stuck at: hit FILE....REstore and select the ZIP that i want to download. When that box comes up...i am not sure what to do. Any help would be appreciated. Luke are you around? You have helped me in the past. Thanks Don Babb Trudger

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