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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, December 19, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets

The Mets are a hard team to evaluate at this point in the offseason as they’re one of the teams actually looking to invest in their team, which they obviously need to do while Delgado’s still decent, Beltran’s not aging, and Wright/Reyes are cheap (both signed through 2011 at well below market value).  The Mets, more than most other teams, would be smart to overpay for an inning eater for the rotation now that the problems with the bullpen have been filled aggressively.

There are still some questions that need to be answered at a few positions, most notably 2B (as already debated over in Dialed In earlier this week).  The Mets will likely stand pat with the starting lineup as much as possible.

Overall, the Mets should be one of the best NL teams in 2009.  Choking is overrated - the team came up short due to some holes and they’ve been doing their best this offseason to fill them.

And yes, I know Billy Wagner’s injured and not going to pitch in 2009.  I know I reiterate this kind of thing every time in the disclaimer, but in my experience, disclaimers are rarely read.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
Ramon Castro         c   33 .248 .310 .447 50 141 18 35 7 0 7 25 12 37 0 0   98 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Brian Schneider*      c   32 .251 .336 .360 108 342 30 86 16 0 7 50 43 56 1 0   86 Av

POOR
Robinson Cancel       c   33 .241 .289 .369 68 203 20 49 9 1 5 21 12 34 3 2   74 Av
Gustavo Molina       c   27 .216 .268 .317 89 278 19 60 10 0 6 26 17 51 0 2   56 Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
Carlos Delgado*      1b 37 .263 .340 .480 137 521 75 137 27 1 28 94 54 114 1 1 115 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Fernando Tatis       lf 34 .262 .327 .431 117 401 50 105 21 1 15 56 36 78 4 2 100 Av
Val Pascucci         rf 30 .240 .331 .415 125 446 54 107 21 0 19 64 56 115 5 2   97 Fr

POOR
Michel Abreu         1b 30 .270 .322 .414 109 382 42 103 19 0 12 52 28 66 1 0   94 Av
Daniel Murphy*        lf 24 .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 11 6   97 Av
Damion Easley         2b 39 .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 0 0   89 Av
Nicholas Evans       lf 23 .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 2 0   89 Fr
Marlon Anderson*      lf 35 .262 .322 .387 87 160 21 42 9 1 3 23 14 31 3 1   88 Av
Robinson Cancel       c   33 .241 .289 .369 68 203 20 49 9 1 5 21 12 34 3 2   74 Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Daniel Murphy*        lf 24 .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 11 6   97 Fr

FAIR
Luis Castillo#        2b 33 .279 .351 .348 117 451 69 126 16 3 3 39 50 44 16 5   87 Fr
Damion Easley         2b 39 .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 0 0   89 Fr
Marlon Anderson*      lf 35 .262 .322 .387 87 160 21 42 9 1 3 23 14 31 3 1   88 Fr

POOR
Argenis Reyes#        2b 26 .259 .302 .325 138 495 59 128 17 2 4 34 28 66 21 6   67 Av
Ramon Martinez       2b 36 .248 .312 .301 60 153 15 38 5 0 1 20 14 16 0 0   64 Fr
Andy Machado#        3b 28 .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 6 2   60 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
David Wright         3b 26 .309 .398 .548 157 602 111 186 41 2 33 120 87 112 21 4 149 Av

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Fernando Tatis       lf 34 .262 .327 .431 117 401 50 105 21 1 15 56 36 78 4 2 100 Pr

FAIR
Daniel Murphy*        lf 24 .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 11 6   97 Fr
Damion Easley         2b 39 .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 0 0   89 Fr
Nicholas Evans       lf 23 .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 2 0   89 Pr

POOR
Ramon Martinez       2b 36 .248 .312 .301 60 153 15 38 5 0 1 20 14 16 0 0   64 Fr
Andy Machado#        3b 28 .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 6 2   60 Av
Gustavo Molina       c   27 .216 .268 .317 89 278 19 60 10 0 6 26 17 51 0 2   56 Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Jose Reyes#          ss 26 .297 .361 .473 157 674 120 200 36 16 17 71 67 78 63 17 120 Av

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Damion Easley         2b 39 .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 0 0   89 Pr

POOR
Argenis Reyes#        2b 26 .259 .302 .325 138 495 59 128 17 2 4 34 28 66 21 6   67 Av
Ramon Martinez       2b 36 .248 .312 .301 60 153 15 38 5 0 1 20 14 16 0 0   64 Pr
Andy Machado#        3b 28 .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 6 2   60 Av

————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+  LF RF

VERY GOOD
Ryan Church*        rf 30 .270 .352 .473 119 385 55 104 25 1 17 64 45 96 3 2 117 Av Av

FAIR
Fernando Tatis       lf 34 .262 .327 .431 117 401 50 105 21 1 15 56 36 78 4 2 100 Fr Fr
John Rodriguez*      lf 31 .261 .344 .408 97 238 35 62 12 1 7 25 26 56 0 0   99 Fr Fr
Val Pascucci         rf 30 .240 .331 .415 125 446 54 107 21 0 19 64 56 115 5 2   97 Fr Fr
Daniel Murphy*        lf 24 .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 11 6   97 Av Av
Chris Aguila         lf 30 .260 .320 .418 103 335 42 87 15 1 12 40 28 74 8 2   94 Av Fr

POOR
Damion Easley         2b 39 .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 0 0   89 Av  
Nicholas Evans       lf 23 .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 2 0   89 Fr  
Marlon Anderson*      lf 35 .262 .322 .387 87 160 21 42 9 1 3 23 14 31 3 1   88 Av Av
Jeremy Reed*        cf 28 .267 .316 .382 118 419 53 112 21 3 7 48 29 52 7 4   86 Vg Vg
Angel Pagan#        lf 27 .253 .309 .371 87 237 31 60 12 2 4 19 20 42 7 2   80 Av Av
Jesus Feliciano*      cf 30 .273 .318 .335 97 319 36 87 12 1 2 30 19 33 6 6   74 Av Av
Robinson Cancel       c   33 .241 .289 .369 68 203 20 49 9 1 5 21 12 34 3 2   74 Fr  
Andy Machado#        3b 28 .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 6 2   60 Av Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Carlos Beltran#      cf 32 .279 .370 .515 146 551 106 154 36 2 30 105 80 102 20 2 133 Ex

VERY GOOD
Ryan Church*        rf 30 .270 .352 .473 119 385 55 104 25 1 17 64 45 96 3 2 117 Pr

FAIR
Chris Aguila         lf 30 .260 .320 .418 103 335 42 87 15 1 12 40 28 74 8 2   94 Fr
Jeremy Reed*        cf 28 .267 .316 .382 118 419 53 112 21 3 7 48 29 52 7 4   86 Av

POOR
Angel Pagan#        lf 27 .253 .309 .371 87 237 31 60 12 2 4 19 20 42 7 2   80 Av
Fernando Martinez     cf 20 .248 .292 .370 79 327 37 81 15 2 7 30 19 61 7 2   75 Fr
Jesus Feliciano*      cf 30 .273 .318 .335 97 319 36 87 12 1 2 30 19 33 6 6   74 Fr

—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

TOP THIRD
Johan Santana*        30   3.23 16   8 32 32   220.0 190   79 29   53 232 133

MIDDLE THIRD
John Maine           28   4.15 11   9 27 27   154.0 141   71 20   65 140 103
Mike Pelfrey         25   4.24   8   8 24 24   140.0 147   66 11   53   82 101
Pedro Martinez         37   4.50   5   5 15 15   86.0   83   43 14   27   82   95
Oliver Perez*        27   4.83   9 10 29 29   164.0 159   88 26   87 159   89
Jonathan Niese*        22   4.85   9 11 31 31   165.0 182   89 21   57 101   88

BOTTOM THIRD
Tony Armas Jr.        31   4.93   5   6 16 15   84.0   92   46 12   26   53   87
Claudio Vargas         31   4.97   7 10 25 21   125.0 136   69 20   42   94   86
Bobby Parnell         24   5.38   7 11 29 28   144.0 159   86 21   72   81   80
Nelson Figueroa       35   5.75   5   9 26 18   122.0 141   78 24   47   75   74

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

TOP THIRD
Francisco Rodriguez     27   2.34   5   1 73   0   73.0   51   19   4   35 101 183
J.J. Putz           32   2.59   6   2 58   0   59.0   44   17   4   19   71 162
Billy Wagner*        37   2.84   2   1 56   0   57.0   47   18   6   17   69 151

MIDDLE THIRD
Pedro Feliciano*      32   3.66   4   2 76   0   59.0   54   24   6   25   55 117
Matt Wise           33   4.11   3   2 34   0   35.0   36   16   4   11   24 104
Sean Green           30   4.15   5   4 65   0   78.0   74   36   2   37   51 103

BOTTOM THIRD
Ricardo Rincon*        39   4.50   0   0   6   0   4.0   4   2   0   2   4   95
Connor Robertson       27   4.50   5   5 50   0   72.0   72   36   7   32   57   95
Brandon Knight         33   4.58   4   4 31   4   57.0   55   29   9   24   54   94
Duaner Sanchez         29   4.60   2   2 45   0   43.0   43   22   7   17   34   93
Eddie Kunz           33   4.62   2   2 38   0   39.0   39   20   3   23   22   93
Luis Ayala           31   4.77   4   5 70   0   66.0   70   35   8   23   43   90
Rocky Cherry         29   4.91   2   3 52   0   66.0   68   36   9   31   49   87
Ambiorix Burgos       25   4.94   1   2 27   0   31.0   30   17   6   16   34   87
Carlos Muniz         28   4.95   3   4 52   0   60.0   63   33   9   24   39   87
Brian Stokes         29   4.97   7   8 45 16   125.0 139   69 15   49   73   86
Ruddy Lugo           29   5.03   5   7 43   9   93.0   97   52 11   47   58   85
Willie Collazo*        29   5.16   5   8 39 13   122.0 142   70 19   34   52   83
Jose Santiago         34   6.19   2   6 31   6   80.0 100   55 15   28   33   69

* - Throws Left

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Nick Evans (LF)
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 2 0   89

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Luis Melendez, Ray Sadler

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR   5
AVG   17
REP LV 56

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   0     >10   0     >200   0
>140   0     >.375   2     >5     16     >150   0
>130   1     >.350   7
>120   5     >.325   22     2B     %
>110   13     >.300   56     >45   0
>100   28               >30   6
>90   48
>80   68
>60   94

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   0     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   0     >.500   4     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   4     >.450   25     >30   0     >30   0
>.275   17     >.400   60     >20   13     >10   11
>.250   50     >.350   89     >10   81

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Daniel Murphy (LF)
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 11 6   97

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Ed Kranepool, Brett Roneberg

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR   10
AVG   27
REP LV 70

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   0     >10   0     >200   0
>140   2     >.375   3     >5     7     >150   20
>130   5     >.350   16
>120   11     >.325   48     2B     %
>110   21     >.300   83     >45   2
>100   38               >30   40
>90   60
>80   80
>60   97

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   3     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   2     >.500   8     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   11     >.450   24     >30   3     >30   0
>.275   40     >.400   60     >20   19     >10   53
>.250   77     >.350   91     >10   88

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - John Maine
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       4.15 11   9 27 27 154 141   71 20   65 140   103

Top Near-Age Comps:  Roger Pavlik, Pete Harnish

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 50
Mid 1/3 30
Bot 1/3 20

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   7

<26 0
>

140   12

<34 2
>

130   19

<43 8
>

120   28

<51 26
>

110   41

<60 39
>

100   57

<68 65
>

90   73
>80   88     HR     %
>70   96     <12 16
<17 39
K % <22 64
>154   14     <27 79
>137   41
>120   72
>103   98

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Mike Pelfrey
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       4.24   8   8 24 24 140 147   66 11   53   82   101

Top Near-Age Comps:  Storm Davis, Mel Stottleymyre

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 41
Mid 1/3 39
Bot 1/3 20

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   2     <23 0
>140   3     <31 2
>130   8     <39 19
>120   17     <47 31
>110   31     <54 61
>100   50     <62 76
>90   73
>80   90     HR     %
>70   99     <11 47
<16 75
K % <20 95
>140   0     <25 99
>124   0
>109   6
>93   19

——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ >140

Wright     71
Beltran   36
Church     15

OBP >.400

Wright     49
Beltran   18
Castillo   9

SLG >.550

Wright     46
Beltran   27
Delgado   13

BA >.325

Wright     17
Reyes     9
Castillo   7

2B >45

Wright     23
Reyes     10
Beltran     7

3B >10

Reyes     87
Beltran     2

HR >30

Wright     67
Beltran   53
Delgado   32

SB >50

Reyes     65
A. Reyes   2

ERA+ >140

Rodriguez   78
Putz     74
Wagner     61

K/9 >9

Rodriguez   93
Putz     88
Wagner     80

BB/9 <1.5

Santana 15
Wagner 10
Collazzo 4

HR/9 <0.7

Green 97
Rodriguez 69
Putz 61

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.


Marlins

Mariners

Indians

Giants

Dodgers

Diamondbacks

Cubs

Cardinals

Brewers

Braves

Blue Jays

A’s

Astros

Angels

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2008 at 07:14 AM | 68 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 19, 2008 at 10:09 AM (#3033742)
Isn't Trot Nixon a Brewer now?
   2. JoeHova Posted: December 19, 2008 at 11:19 AM (#3033750)
yeah, he signed on Thursday. Glad to see his projection isn't quite as horrible as I would have feared, but I'm still not sanguine about the possibility of him being useful.
   3. frenchredsox Posted: December 19, 2008 at 11:20 AM (#3033751)
Isn't Trot Nixon a Brewer now?


Yes he signed a minor league deal but Dan usually does predictions for FAs on their last teams.
BTW Anderson Hernandez is a National too (trade last season).

Dan NO predictions for Orlando or Pedro ? Also as you did Rocky Cherry (great name,no ?) could it be possible to add in Darren O'Day's as he also has a good chance to stick on the 25 man THX
   4. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 19, 2008 at 02:15 PM (#3033766)
fyi - o'day has a torn labrum (though he is avoiding surgery) and a limited ceiling to begin with, so don't expect too much.
   5. Chris Dial Posted: December 19, 2008 at 02:22 PM (#3033768)
Also, Johan's's chance of ERA+ over 140? He hasn't hit that mark once in his SP career, and he is usually miles above it.
   6. Scott Kazmir's breaking balls Posted: December 19, 2008 at 02:42 PM (#3033782)
Is Billy Wagner expected to play this season? I thought he was going to miss all of 2009.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2008 at 03:29 PM (#3033815)
Santana 59% (pitchers are risky creatures).

Didn't see Nixon signing - removed him and I'm going to add Pedro back in.
   8. Chris in Wicker Park Posted: December 19, 2008 at 03:32 PM (#3033819)
I heart David Wright. Oh, and Beltran. And Santana. And Reyes.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2008 at 03:39 PM (#3033824)
Oops, wrong line - Santana 46%.
   10. comrade DDT Posted: December 19, 2008 at 03:46 PM (#3033828)
Murphy projects at 97 OPS+ all ready? sweet. Not that the Mets' TV broadcasting team seems particularly inclined, but I bet they'd love to hear that Murphy's top comp is Ed Kranepool.
   11. JPWF13 Posted: December 19, 2008 at 03:50 PM (#3033831)
Murphy projects at 97 OPS+ all ready? sweet.


Don't let Sam hear you say that.
   12. Barnaby Jones Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:23 PM (#3033866)
I'm betting the ZiPS projection didn't make it into Boras' tome on Perez.
   13. zack Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:04 PM (#3033913)
Eww Depth. As always.

The Mets need at least one of a leftfielder, second basemen, or a catcher. And a starting pitcher.
   14. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:06 PM (#3033916)
I'm betting the ZiPS projection didn't make it into Boras' tome on Perez.

I think it would be great fun to skim through one of Boras' books on his clients. Do they ever pop up on ebay?
   15. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:07 PM (#3033918)
.273/.324/.422. Can we make that +/- .800 OPS in 400+ PA bet now, Sam?
   16. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:14 PM (#3033928)
Ya know, since I'm back and I already got my shiv wet I think I'm gonna take out that bastard Beltran too. He's been on the list for a while...
   17. frenchredsox Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:48 PM (#3033983)
fyi - o'day has a torn labrum (though he is avoiding surgery) and a limited ceiling to begin with, so don't expect too much.


I realised that but 2 points:
1° Dan did do a projection of Wagner who is similarly out &
2° O'Day is more likely to pitch in the bigs FOR the Metsthan FAs like Lugo/Santiago/Rincon/Ayala or Wise.

I know he is nt what one would call a top pen man but he is a cusp player who will when fit have a shot at a pen place.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2008 at 06:07 PM (#3034026)
I actually just forgot to add O'Day.

4-3, 4.26, 57 IP, 58 H, 5 HR, 18 BB, 36 K, 101 ERA+
   19. thetailor Posted: December 19, 2008 at 09:02 PM (#3034261)
Man, that offense projects amazingly well... by OPS+

Castro- 98
Delgado- 115
Murphy- 97
Reyes- 120
Wright- 149
Tatis- 100
Beltran- 133
Church- 117

GET PITCHINGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(I know people project Castillo to start at second, so his is 87, but its OBP heavy and wouldn't really hurt us at the bottom of the order.)
   20. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2008 at 09:09 PM (#3034264)
.273/.324/.422. Can we make that +/- .800 OPS in 400+ PA bet now, Sam?

Oh, nice. Too scared to make the bet until you saw the ZiPs projection, eh? Needed Dan to provide you with a spine transplant? ;-)

You got it. If the Mets have the smarts to give Murphy 400 PAs, then we've got a $10 B-Ref sponsorship of the winner's choice riding on over/under, 800 OPS.

I understand the basis for the projection, of course. IMHO, it is way low on the OBP he will achieve, although in the ballpark on the slugging. We'll see.
   21. JPWF13 Posted: December 19, 2008 at 09:17 PM (#3034271)
Man, that offense projects amazingly well... by OPS+

Team OPS+ in 2008 was 107, that was with Castillo posting a 77, Easley an 82 (in 316 ABs), Chavez a 69, in 270 Abs,

MAn oh man was Castillo bad, all year Dial was railing against him- and most of the year his OPS+ was in the 90s...(.261/.365/.331 at the break) but then he hit .170/.313/.189 in August and September (only 65 PAs, but still... yikes)
   22. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 09:19 PM (#3034272)
Castro isn't the everyday catcher, thetailor.
   23. JPWF13 Posted: December 19, 2008 at 09:19 PM (#3034274)
You got it. If the Mets have the smarts to give Murphy 400 PAs, then we've got a $10 B-Ref sponsorship of the winner's choice riding on over/under, 800 OPS.


Sam... you should make the bet involve screen names, like Joe C has to go by "Joe #####" if Murphy hits better than .800
   24. JPWF13 Posted: December 19, 2008 at 09:24 PM (#3034278)
Castro isn't the everyday catcher, thetailor.


I've given up on Castro (as a regular), it took awhile, back when he was an effing Marlins prospect I thought he'd be a minor star...
He's been a better player than the last 2 Mets regular catchers--- when he's been able to suit up and play. Let's face it, he clear;y would have had more PT the last 4 seasons if he wasn't hurt all the time. He has not batted between 126-209 at bats the last 4 years becasue that's his "role", he's batted so little because he's either on the DL, or limping or sulking or WTF ever. Without a chaneg in usage or role, he'd get around 250 or so at bats a year if not for injuries.
   25. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 19, 2008 at 09:43 PM (#3034289)
Oh, nice. Too scared to make the bet until you saw the ZiPs projection, eh? Needed Dan to provide you with a spine transplant? ;-)

Ha ha. :-) I suppose you've got me there, even if that wasn't my intention to wait.

But it's on. >=400 PA, +/-.800 OPS.
   26. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 19, 2008 at 09:45 PM (#3034291)
Sam... you should make the bet involve screen names, like Joe C has to go by "Joe #####" if Murphy hits better than .800

I'll do this, but we'd have to set terms on how long for and all that.

Plus, everyone wins when a player gets sponsored at BBRef.
   27. PreservedFish Posted: December 19, 2008 at 09:54 PM (#3034303)
I don't know, I am sort of underwhelmed by this team in general. It reminds me of the late 90s Mariners - the star power is extraordinary and one should be able to waltz into the playoffs just by adding some averages players to the Wright/Reyes/Beltran/Santana core. But there isn't a lot there. The starting pitching, in particular, looks awful in this layout. This team has juggernaut capabilities but it isn't there and it isn't going to get there this year.
   28. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2008 at 10:01 PM (#3034311)
Pelfrey will do better than that projection. He turned the corner last year. I think Sanchez and Stokes are better than their projections as well.

Niese, Church, and Beltran will be worse.

I think the Mets should sign Garland. He'll do well for the Mets.

I will be wrong about most of my predictions.
   29. Fat Al Posted: December 19, 2008 at 10:03 PM (#3034313)
Doesn't that Church projection look mighty optimistic? And Beltran certainly looks a little high.
   30. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2008 at 10:13 PM (#3034321)
The starting pitching, in particular, looks awful in this layout. This team has juggernaut capabilities but it isn't there and it isn't going to get there this year.

Well, that's true, of course, although "awful" is an exaggeration. I mean, Johan-Pelfrey-Maine is a nice starting point for any rotation, and Niese is a solid prospect. But no one expects the Mets to go into the season without adding a starter. The question du jour, of course, is whether it's of the Derek Lowe variety (Heyman seems consistently, and curiously, optimistic that the Mets will be right there at the end for him, FWIW), or the Randy Wolf/Jon Garland type.

We shall see.
   31. thetailor Posted: December 19, 2008 at 10:15 PM (#3034323)
Eddie Kunz (age) 33 (ERA) 4.62

Talk about a flash in the pan. I remember his rookie season.
   32. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2008 at 10:20 PM (#3034325)
Plus, everyone wins when a player gets sponsored at BBRef.

Exactly. I'm in for the original bet.
   33. PreservedFish Posted: December 19, 2008 at 10:25 PM (#3034328)
although "awful" is an exaggeration.

Probably. But it is scary for the moment. Santana is Santana. But behind that we have John Maine (coming off surgery), Pelfrey (is he for real?), and nothing. If just one of those two guys flops, which is a reasonable prediction, you are in full on disaster mode.

Niese is nice to have but for 2009 I think the only thing he brings to the table over a random AAAA vet is the emotional understanding that he is a rookie. ("At least it's not Brian Lawrence this year, maybe getting smoked will help him grow in the future.")

Of course, Derek Lowe would help, and I think the Ollie projection is low, should he return. The Putz/KRod projections are exciting.
   34. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2008 at 11:46 PM (#3034382)
Just to clarify, the projection for Kunz is correct, I just entered in Brandon Knight's birthdate a second time into DMB (right after each other alphabetically on the 40-man).
   35. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 20, 2008 at 01:18 AM (#3034433)
I don't know, I am sort of underwhelmed by this team in general. It reminds me of the late 90s Mariners - the star power is extraordinary and one should be able to waltz into the playoffs just by adding some averages players to the Wright/Reyes/Beltran/Santana core. But there isn't a lot there. The starting pitching, in particular, looks awful in this layout. This team has juggernaut capabilities but it isn't there and it isn't going to get there this year.
Damn right and too true. After the last three years, and the last two in particular it has become clear to me that Omar and Wilpon simply have no idea what this team needs. The Mets have EXACTLY the kind of core that needed a GM and owner who understood that the last thing needed was to fart around with Julio Franco's and Moises Alou's and Orlando Hernandez's golden ####!ng years and put some steady mediocrities out ON the field to support the stars. This team is once again going to need particular good luck, or a significant collapse by the rest of the division, to get into the playoffs. We have unproven corner OFers, a near-black hole at 2b, a dud at C, and ONE pitcher who's got more than one season of 200 IP under his belt. That the Mets FO couldn't figure out that Schoeneweis for Marquis (i.e. a steady mediocrity) was EXACTLY (I think I'm going to start turning into TOLAXOR on Mets threads) the kind of deal that needed to be pounced on tells me, beyond any doubt, that the FO has learned NOTHING, and is going to piss away one of the best cores in the game until there's nothing left.

Good God. The core even consists of three of the hardest positions to adequately fill.
   36. Juan V Posted: December 20, 2008 at 01:32 AM (#3034439)
Am I the only one who thinks Johan's ERA+ is a little low? Sure, ZiPS is reacting to the drop in strikeout rate, but it also has him gaining back some of his Ks...
   37. ugen64 Posted: December 20, 2008 at 01:41 AM (#3034446)
Jason Marquis isn't a "steady mediocrity", he's barely a replacement level pitcher. over the past 4 years, his FIP has been 4.95, 5.90 (!), 4.99, and 4.61 last season, mostly because of an uncharacteristically low HR/FB rate (his other peripherals like K and BB actually regressed).

anyway, what the Mets should do is drop Castillo, put Murphy in as the full time 2B, and get 1 corner outfielder. using Schneider/Castro as the catchers isn't the best solution but it's pretty hard to find good hitting catchers that aren't overpriced (Jason Kendall) or coming out of your own farm system.
   38. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 20, 2008 at 02:26 AM (#3034461)
Am I the only one who thinks Johan's ERA+ is a little low? Sure, ZiPS is reacting to the drop in strikeout rate, but it also has him gaining back some of his Ks...

It's more complex than this, but let me try to put it simply.

ZiPS isn't looking at Santana's 2008 as a 166 ERA+ season but more like a 120 ERA+ season in which Santana had good defensive support and continued his pattern of outperforming that but should not have outperformed it by quite *that* much. ZiPS sees Santana pitching better, but exceeding his peripherals by less.

FIP+ ERA+
2005 159 155
2006 142 161
2007 109 130
2008 120 166
ZiPS 09 122 133

ZiPS also sees the K rate as more alarming than it looks on the surface because the context changed to favor him while the Ks went the wrong way. Santana lost 20% of his K rate while moving to a league that was slightly lower in quality, had pitchers instead of DHs, in a lower offensive year. Given the changes in context, Santana's drop in K rate starts to head towards a third. ZiPS isn't sounding any super-loud klaxons, but it increases the chances of Santana having a bad year.
   39. Lassus Posted: December 20, 2008 at 02:30 AM (#3034464)
This joke may have already been made, Dan, but the way you talk about ZIPS makes me want to warn you to look out for Sarah Connor.
   40. Conor Posted: December 20, 2008 at 02:33 AM (#3034466)
This team is once again going to need particular good luck, or a significant collapse by the rest of the division, to get into the playoffs. We have unproven corner OFers, a near-black hole at 2b, a dud at C, and ONE pitcher who's got more than one season of 200 IP under his belt.


I think it is a stretch to say they have a dud at catcher. Based on last year, and the projections, a Castro-Schneider platoon can be around average. Castillo's projection is much better than that of a black hole. So I wouldn't go as far as you did.
   41. Walt Davis Posted: December 20, 2008 at 02:36 AM (#3034467)
Jason Marquis isn't a "steady mediocrity", he's barely a replacement level pitcher. over the past 4 years, his FIP has been 4.95, 5.90 (!), 4.99, and 4.61 last season

You don't seem to understand where replacement level is for starting pitchers. In the NL alone, there were 689 starts by pitchers with an ERA+** of 85 or below. That's 43 per team or roughly 1.3 rotation slots or 27% of starts. The median ERA+ of that group is about 76, an ERA around 5.75. Replacement level pitchers carry names like Patrick Misch and Jack Cassel. Those last two FIPS you cite are an ERA+ around 95 in Wrigley (the other two not so good but only one at replacement level :-). And Marquis has been very good about going out there and giving you 30 starts a year -- which keeps those replacement-level starters off the field.

And that's before we even get into the fact that, FIP or no FIP, Marquis has been average or better in terms of ERA+ in 4 of the last 5 seasons.

** that's their overall ERA+ not necessarily their ERA+ as starters but that seems all I can do using PI. Still, hard to imagine too many of these guys pitched worse in their bullpen stints.
   42. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 20, 2008 at 02:42 AM (#3034469)
Jason Marquis isn't a "steady mediocrity", he's barely a replacement level pitcher. over the past 4 years, his FIP has been 4.95, 5.90 (!), 4.99, and 4.61 last season, mostly because of an uncharacteristically low HR/FB rate (his other peripherals like K and BB actually regressed).

anyway, what the Mets should do is drop Castillo, put Murphy in as the full time 2B, and get 1 corner outfielder. using Schneider/Castro as the catchers isn't the best solution but it's pretty hard to find good hitting catchers that aren't overpriced (Jason Kendall) or coming out of your own farm system.
I don't think I'm quite following you, ugen. Jason Kendall is a good hitting catcher? The Jason Kendall currently in the major leagues? With the OPS+ over the last four years of 79, 88, 63, and 72? Marquis, OTOH, has been an above average starter the last two years, and has a good chance to be average this year. At worst he'll be a respectable fifth starter on a club that in the last couple of years has thrown Chan Ho F. Park into the breach. As for throwing Murphy into the 2b spot, you might want to check out the It's Mets... blog thread on that subject. Chris Dial agrees with you.
   43. Raskolnikov Posted: December 20, 2008 at 03:22 AM (#3034481)
I would like to point out that Val Pascucci would hit as well as Daniel Murphy. Thank you.
   44. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 20, 2008 at 03:50 AM (#3034492)
I would like to point out that Val Pascucci would hit as well as Daniel Murphy. Thank you.
Oh, you're in trouble now.

Besides, Vally P. had 62 ML ABs and what did he do with those ABs? He choked, that's what, and choked so badly that the Expos had to leave Canada. Besides, I can't help noticing that while Val DOES get to the occasional ball in the OF, he's not exactly fleet of foot. It's gotta suck, though. Imagine being a very good AAA player and watching your chances fade away, year by blistering year.
   45. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 20, 2008 at 03:55 AM (#3034493)
Maine didn't have surgery. He shut things down late in the season but he didn't have surgery.
   46. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 20, 2008 at 04:39 AM (#3034509)
Val does have a pretty good arm, though - he could have been a pitcher.
I never see guys in jerseys/shirts celebrating obscure players, but I bumped into some guy in a Pascucci/Expos top in front of me at the grocery store the other day. It was more exciting (albeit fleetingly) than I ought admit.
   47. frenchredsox Posted: December 20, 2008 at 10:49 AM (#3034585)
I actually just forgot to add O'Day.

4-3, 4.26, 57 IP, 58 H, 5 HR, 18 BB, 36 K, 101 ERA+


Thank you Dan - that puts O'Day as the Mets 5th best pen arm - behind F-Rod/Putz/Green & Feliciano - so could be a nice R5 pick up
   48. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: December 20, 2008 at 02:32 PM (#3034599)
I never see guys in jerseys/shirts celebrating obscure players, but I bumped into some guy in a Pascucci/Expos top in front of me at the grocery store the other day. It was more exciting (albeit fleetingly) than I ought admit.

I once ran into Val and some of his teammates at Outback Steakhouse. I remember turning to my little brother and saying "that, right there, is Valentino Pascucci". One of the teammates was Australian too (Adrian Burnside).

Ah, memories.
   49. Sam M. Posted: December 20, 2008 at 03:04 PM (#3034614)
Maine didn't have surgery. He shut things down late in the season but he didn't have surgery.

Tell that to his shoulder, and to the lesion they removed from it on September 30th. Ahem.
   50. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: December 20, 2008 at 03:45 PM (#3034626)
Do we really think going with Murphy is a smart idea? His stats in the minors, last year aside, don't scream "give this guy a chance in LF." Don't get me wrong, I love his swing and approach, but our core isn't getting any younger. We can't really afford to carry a mediocre LFer all year, especially considering our RF isn't exactly a sure thing.
   51. Sam M. Posted: December 20, 2008 at 05:46 PM (#3034672)
Do we really think going with Murphy is a smart idea? His stats in the minors, last year aside, don't scream "give this guy a chance in LF." Don't get me wrong, I love his swing and approach, but our core isn't getting any younger.

First of all, they are platooning Murphy, not giving him the whole job.

Second, if the core isn't getting any younger, that is precisely a reason to give a promising young player a chance, to help the team get younger. You have to balance the short term desire to win against the long term building of a contender over time. In this particular case, obviously, I happen to think there is no short-term sacrifice, since I think Murphy will also help them win now. But even if I thought there was some short-term pain, I would say endure it in the interests of the development of a young player who can help the team down the road. You can't keep filling holes with patches and let your young players stagnate. Daniel Murphy has earned the chance to prove he can make a major contribution. There will be jobs they might well want Murphy to fill by 2010 (1B, 2B, corner OF). If you don't see what he can do in an extended number of major league ABs in 2009, you will have the exact same questions then you do now.

It also, I might add, has the critical benefit of keeping payroll down in one area so as to help them afford an upgrade elsewhere (in our case, in the rotation). Every one of Omar Minaya's comments about this subject has made clear without saying explicitly that given the way the market has gone for starters, it's a choice between a LFer or a starter, and they have chosen a starter. I, for one, think that is a pretty obvious choice . . . given that the talent on hand gives them an adequate (or better) LF option, and nothing resembling an adequate choice for the middle of the rotation.
   52. Walt Davis Posted: December 20, 2008 at 08:06 PM (#3034732)
Do we really think going with Murphy is a smart idea?

Well, yeah. Otherwise the bet between Sam and Joe C doesn't get settled and b-r is $10 poorer.

I propose an addendum to all b-r sponsorship bets -- if the bet doesn't "qualify", each party contributes half the bet amount. That way b-r always wins ... much better than b-r having to rely on the Mets making sensible decisions!
   53. PreservedFish Posted: December 20, 2008 at 08:20 PM (#3034737)
Don't get me wrong, I love his swing and approach, but our core isn't getting any younger.


Core isn't getting younger? WTF? This isn't the 2001 Mets ... our core is two 26 year olds, and two HOF talents just barely over 30. The Mets are not in "win now" mode. They can let a rookie or two find his footing in the majors.
   54. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 20, 2008 at 08:41 PM (#3034742)
much better than b-r having to rely on the Mets making sensible decisions!

Sean would've closed up shop years ago if that was case.
   55. Kyle S Posted: December 20, 2008 at 09:06 PM (#3034749)
Sam, I think you've made a smart bet by setting the terms as you have. If Murphy sucks, the Mets won't likely give him 400 PAs, so you've locked in some downside protection. IMHO, Joe C is absorbing lots of tail risk.
   56. Sam M. Posted: December 20, 2008 at 09:28 PM (#3034756)
Sam, I think you've made a smart bet by setting the terms as you have. If Murphy sucks, the Mets won't likely give him 400 PAs, so you've locked in some downside protection.

Twasn't what I was thinking, though. Unfortunately, what I'm afraid of is that they will be the same old Mets, and fail/refuse to give him 400 PAs because he's not a Proven Veteran™ who "deserves" the playing time because of his Longtime Track Record™. And if he fails to get to .800 because of a small sample size rather than his abilities, I don't want to be the victim of the Mets' fascination with whomever is next in line to follow the Easleys and Alous and Castillos and Andersons and Greens and Valentins and LoDucas of the world. It's certainly not hard to imagine that if Murphy gets off to a bad April, he might never get off the bench, or he could even get sent down to Buffalo, and that's that.
   57. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 20, 2008 at 09:55 PM (#3034767)
Sam, I think you've made a smart bet by setting the terms as you have. If Murphy sucks, the Mets won't likely give him 400 PAs, so you've locked in some downside protection. IMHO, Joe C is absorbing lots of tail risk.

Actually, you make a decent point. If we also put a bet on +/-400 PA, I'd take the under on that, too.
   58. Darren Posted: December 20, 2008 at 10:07 PM (#3034769)
Where are the Mets in payroll right now? Where are they expected to end up? They have a lot of talent and the kind of gaping holes that, if filled by marginally decent players, could really improve them. If they've got a bit of money to spend, they could be a powerhouse.
   59. Darren Posted: December 20, 2008 at 10:19 PM (#3034775)
To expound a little further:

If the Mets have $20 mil left to spend, they could probably bring in a solid SP a sketchy LF or vice versa. If they've got half that, they probably just get the SP.
   60. thetailor Posted: December 20, 2008 at 10:36 PM (#3034779)
This team is once again going to need particular good luck, or a significant collapse by the rest of the division, to get into the playoffs. We have unproven corner OFers, a near-black hole at 2b, a dud at C, and ONE pitcher who's got more than one season of 200 IP under his belt.

Its already been pointed out that this was an overstatement but I think its bears mentioning again --- the Mets offense is NOT the problem. This team scores a TON of runs because have three superstars at 3B, SS, and CF and a good supporting cast at 1B and RF. Further, the C platoon is pretty darn good. Offense is fine. We scored the same number of runs as the Phillies last season.

The REAL problem is pitching, pitching, pitching. As someone also pointed out, we've got one legit starter, a rookie who exceeded his innings max by 50 last year, and a guy who has never thrown 200 innings coming off a season where he needed to shut it down. We need to resign Perez just to tread water -- what we really need is Perez and something consistent (a Marquis type garbage guy) or an upgrade on Perez (like Lowe) and something cheaper. If the Mets go into the season with Niese as the #5 starter, we're missing the playoffs, and I'll make a bet on that.
   61. Sam M. Posted: December 21, 2008 at 02:10 AM (#3034899)
We need to resign Perez just to tread water -- what we really need is Perez and something consistent (a Marquis type garbage guy) or an upgrade on Perez (like Lowe) and something cheaper. If the Mets go into the season with Niese as the #5 starter, we're missing the playoffs, and I'll make a bet on that.

I think that is an overstatement of the pitching need. If you are determined to look at the negative, sure -- you can see Mike Pelfrey as a question mark instead of one of the best young pitchers in the league, and dismiss the reports that said Maine's surgery was as simple as it gets (arthroscopic, removeal of a lesion), and make it sound like the Mets have Johan Santana and a prayer.

No doubt the Mets need another starter. But as long as they get one, the starting pitching overall has a good chance to be at least as good as it was in 2008 (when it was just fine, at least until Maine's departure). Lowe as an upgrade over Perez would make that a very good bet. And Niese at # 5 is particularly unlikely to be the reason if it is worse, when you consider that last year that role was occupied by the remains of Pedro Martinez and his various fill-ins. Niese doesn't have to be particularly good to represent an upgrade. I'd rather have reliable mediocrity (and Niese gaining experience in the process) than Pedro and his inability to give the Mets innings and thus disrupt the whole season.

To answer Darren's question, I haven't done the exact math, but my strong impression is that the remaining dollars are enough for one major addition. Not for two pitchers, and not for one pitcher and a left fiedler. And the basic premise seems to be that the goal is to match last year's payroll of around $135M, so I'd estimate they must be in the mid-$120's right now.
   62. Walt Davis Posted: December 22, 2008 at 01:12 AM (#3035474)
as good as it was in 2008 (when it was just fine, at least until Maine's departure)

always the tricky bit with the rotation though. Teams simply have to plan 7 starters deep these days and who the #6-7 guys are will likely be important. Now, I don't know how one unearths good #6-7 guys (other than having good young prospects ready to make the jump mid-season) but you at least want guys who can fake it, otherwise you'll be seeing Sidney Ponson (or his pitching evil twin) in a Mets uni next year.

Playing around a bit with P-I, using just 2008 data (should be close enough), these days the "median" rotation probably has an IP profile about like this:

210/190/170/140/100

That's only 810 IP while you want 970 or so out of your starters. That leaves 160 IP which, at 5 IP per start, is 32 replacement starts or one entire rotation slot. And of course that "median" rotation is the median "actual" rotation not necessarily the intended rotation -- i.e. some of those guys on that list were replacements to begin with.

I have no idea if the Mets have done a good job of that this year or not. It was just the comment of "they were fine until X got hurt." Some X is almost always going to get hurt or stink so bad he needs to be dropped from the rotation. Today you need staffs which will be fine (or better) even when X gets hurt. On average you'll be giving 1-1.5 rotation slots to some guy who starts in the minors and/or be so desperate for healthy pitching that you'll let the guy with the 83 ERA+ keep going out there every 5th day.

Note, there were 13 pitchers last year with 25+ starts and an ERA+ of 85 or below. And not all sucky teams either -- Texas, St Louis, Houston and Philly had one each. Only 3 of them could be characterized as kids with growing pains.
   63. ugen64 Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:35 PM (#3037168)
"I don't think I'm quite following you, ugen. Jason Kendall is a good hitting catcher?"

no of course not. but some team decided he was a good hitting catcher and paid him nearly $10 million a year on a multi-year contract. that's the kind of risk you take when you trade for a star catcher (or sign one off the free agent market).
   64. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 23, 2008 at 11:44 PM (#3037276)
no of course not. but some team decided he was a good hitting catcher and paid him nearly $10 million a year on a multi-year contract. that's the kind of risk you take when you trade for a star catcher (or sign one off the free agent market).

To be fair, Jason Kendall through 2000 was basically Joe Mauer, and he signed the contract prior to 2001, when his slide began. IIRC, that contract was widely lauded at the time as a small market team managing to lock up a building block to a long term deal.
   65. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 25, 2008 at 12:42 AM (#3038046)
test post
   66. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 25, 2008 at 02:28 AM (#3038077)
B- (sentence fragment)
   67. crazycatpeakin Posted: December 27, 2008 at 11:15 PM (#3038969)
I noticed Mike Carp does not have a projection since he was traded to the Mariners after the Mariners' projection was done and before the Mets' projection was done. Does anybody have one for him? Thanks.
   68. denDekker, Mattsui (jemile weeks) Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:37 AM (#3038993)
Sentence fragment is a sentence fragment. *nGerror*

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