———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
Ramon Castro c 33 .248 .310 .447 50 141 18 35 7 0 7 25 12 37 0 0 98 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FAIR
Brian Schneider* c 32 .251 .336 .360 108 342 30 86 16 0 7 50 43 56 1 0 86 Av
POOR
Robinson Cancel c 33 .241 .289 .369 68 203 20 49 9 1 5 21 12 34 3 2 74 Av
Gustavo Molina c 27 .216 .268 .317 89 278 19 60 10 0 6 26 17 51 0 2 56 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
Carlos Delgado* 1b 37 .263 .340 .480 137 521 75 137 27 1 28 94 54 114 1 1 115 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FAIR
Fernando Tatis lf 34 .262 .327 .431 117 401 50 105 21 1 15 56 36 78 4 2 100 Av
Val Pascucci rf 30 .240 .331 .415 125 446 54 107 21 0 19 64 56 115 5 2 97 Fr
POOR
Michel Abreu 1b 30 .270 .322 .414 109 382 42 103 19 0 12 52 28 66 1 0 94 Av
Daniel Murphy* lf 24 .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 11 6 97 Av
Damion Easley 2b 39 .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 0 0 89 Av
Nicholas Evans lf 23 .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 2 0 89 Fr
Marlon Anderson* lf 35 .262 .322 .387 87 160 21 42 9 1 3 23 14 31 3 1 88 Av
Robinson Cancel c 33 .241 .289 .369 68 203 20 49 9 1 5 21 12 34 3 2 74 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Daniel Murphy* lf 24 .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 11 6 97 Fr
FAIR
Luis Castillo# 2b 33 .279 .351 .348 117 451 69 126 16 3 3 39 50 44 16 5 87 Fr
Damion Easley 2b 39 .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 0 0 89 Fr
Marlon Anderson* lf 35 .262 .322 .387 87 160 21 42 9 1 3 23 14 31 3 1 88 Fr
POOR
Argenis Reyes# 2b 26 .259 .302 .325 138 495 59 128 17 2 4 34 28 66 21 6 67 Av
Ramon Martinez 2b 36 .248 .312 .301 60 153 15 38 5 0 1 20 14 16 0 0 64 Fr
Andy Machado# 3b 28 .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 6 2 60 Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
EXCELLENT
David Wright 3b 26 .309 .398 .548 157 602 111 186 41 2 33 120 87 112 21 4 149 Av
AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Fernando Tatis lf 34 .262 .327 .431 117 401 50 105 21 1 15 56 36 78 4 2 100 Pr
FAIR
Daniel Murphy* lf 24 .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 11 6 97 Fr
Damion Easley 2b 39 .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 0 0 89 Fr
Nicholas Evans lf 23 .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 2 0 89 Pr
POOR
Ramon Martinez 2b 36 .248 .312 .301 60 153 15 38 5 0 1 20 14 16 0 0 64 Fr
Andy Machado# 3b 28 .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 6 2 60 Av
Gustavo Molina c 27 .216 .268 .317 89 278 19 60 10 0 6 26 17 51 0 2 56 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
EXCELLENT
Jose Reyes# ss 26 .297 .361 .473 157 674 120 200 36 16 17 71 67 78 63 17 120 Av
AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Damion Easley 2b 39 .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 0 0 89 Pr
POOR
Argenis Reyes# 2b 26 .259 .302 .325 138 495 59 128 17 2 4 34 28 66 21 6 67 Av
Ramon Martinez 2b 36 .248 .312 .301 60 153 15 38 5 0 1 20 14 16 0 0 64 Pr
Andy Machado# 3b 28 .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 6 2 60 Av
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ LF RF
VERY GOOD
Ryan Church* rf 30 .270 .352 .473 119 385 55 104 25 1 17 64 45 96 3 2 117 Av Av
FAIR
Fernando Tatis lf 34 .262 .327 .431 117 401 50 105 21 1 15 56 36 78 4 2 100 Fr Fr
John Rodriguez* lf 31 .261 .344 .408 97 238 35 62 12 1 7 25 26 56 0 0 99 Fr Fr
Val Pascucci rf 30 .240 .331 .415 125 446 54 107 21 0 19 64 56 115 5 2 97 Fr Fr
Daniel Murphy* lf 24 .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 11 6 97 Av Av
Chris Aguila lf 30 .260 .320 .418 103 335 42 87 15 1 12 40 28 74 8 2 94 Av Fr
POOR
Damion Easley 2b 39 .265 .328 .385 82 226 24 60 7 1 6 33 16 33 0 0 89 Av
Nicholas Evans lf 23 .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 2 0 89 Fr
Marlon Anderson* lf 35 .262 .322 .387 87 160 21 42 9 1 3 23 14 31 3 1 88 Av Av
Jeremy Reed* cf 28 .267 .316 .382 118 419 53 112 21 3 7 48 29 52 7 4 86 Vg Vg
Angel Pagan# lf 27 .253 .309 .371 87 237 31 60 12 2 4 19 20 42 7 2 80 Av Av
Jesus Feliciano* cf 30 .273 .318 .335 97 319 36 87 12 1 2 30 19 33 6 6 74 Av Av
Robinson Cancel c 33 .241 .289 .369 68 203 20 49 9 1 5 21 12 34 3 2 74 Fr
Andy Machado# 3b 28 .210 .293 .307 111 319 33 67 14 1 5 23 37 77 6 2 60 Av Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
EXCELLENT
Carlos Beltran# cf 32 .279 .370 .515 146 551 106 154 36 2 30 105 80 102 20 2 133 Ex
VERY GOOD
Ryan Church* rf 30 .270 .352 .473 119 385 55 104 25 1 17 64 45 96 3 2 117 Pr
FAIR
Chris Aguila lf 30 .260 .320 .418 103 335 42 87 15 1 12 40 28 74 8 2 94 Fr
Jeremy Reed* cf 28 .267 .316 .382 118 419 53 112 21 3 7 48 29 52 7 4 86 Av
POOR
Angel Pagan# lf 27 .253 .309 .371 87 237 31 60 12 2 4 19 20 42 7 2 80 Av
Fernando Martinez cf 20 .248 .292 .370 79 327 37 81 15 2 7 30 19 61 7 2 75 Fr
Jesus Feliciano* cf 30 .273 .318 .335 97 319 36 87 12 1 2 30 19 33 6 6 74 Fr
—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
TOP THIRD
Johan Santana* 30 3.23 16 8 32 32 220.0 190 79 29 53 232 133
MIDDLE THIRD
John Maine 28 4.15 11 9 27 27 154.0 141 71 20 65 140 103
Mike Pelfrey 25 4.24 8 8 24 24 140.0 147 66 11 53 82 101
Pedro Martinez 37 4.50 5 5 15 15 86.0 83 43 14 27 82 95
Oliver Perez* 27 4.83 9 10 29 29 164.0 159 88 26 87 159 89
Jonathan Niese* 22 4.85 9 11 31 31 165.0 182 89 21 57 101 88
BOTTOM THIRD
Tony Armas Jr. 31 4.93 5 6 16 15 84.0 92 46 12 26 53 87
Claudio Vargas 31 4.97 7 10 25 21 125.0 136 69 20 42 94 86
Bobby Parnell 24 5.38 7 11 29 28 144.0 159 86 21 72 81 80
Nelson Figueroa 35 5.75 5 9 26 18 122.0 141 78 24 47 75 74
—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
TOP THIRD
Francisco Rodriguez 27 2.34 5 1 73 0 73.0 51 19 4 35 101 183
J.J. Putz 32 2.59 6 2 58 0 59.0 44 17 4 19 71 162
Billy Wagner* 37 2.84 2 1 56 0 57.0 47 18 6 17 69 151
MIDDLE THIRD
Pedro Feliciano* 32 3.66 4 2 76 0 59.0 54 24 6 25 55 117
Matt Wise 33 4.11 3 2 34 0 35.0 36 16 4 11 24 104
Sean Green 30 4.15 5 4 65 0 78.0 74 36 2 37 51 103
BOTTOM THIRD
Ricardo Rincon* 39 4.50 0 0 6 0 4.0 4 2 0 2 4 95
Connor Robertson 27 4.50 5 5 50 0 72.0 72 36 7 32 57 95
Brandon Knight 33 4.58 4 4 31 4 57.0 55 29 9 24 54 94
Duaner Sanchez 29 4.60 2 2 45 0 43.0 43 22 7 17 34 93
Eddie Kunz 33 4.62 2 2 38 0 39.0 39 20 3 23 22 93
Luis Ayala 31 4.77 4 5 70 0 66.0 70 35 8 23 43 90
Rocky Cherry 29 4.91 2 3 52 0 66.0 68 36 9 31 49 87
Ambiorix Burgos 25 4.94 1 2 27 0 31.0 30 17 6 16 34 87
Carlos Muniz 28 4.95 3 4 52 0 60.0 63 33 9 24 39 87
Brian Stokes 29 4.97 7 8 45 16 125.0 139 69 15 49 73 86
Ruddy Lugo 29 5.03 5 7 43 9 93.0 97 52 11 47 58 85
Willie Collazo* 29 5.16 5 8 39 13 122.0 142 70 19 34 52 83
Jose Santiago 34 6.19 2 6 31 6 80.0 100 55 15 28 33 69
* - Throws Left
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Nick Evans (LF)
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .253 .305 .412 121 427 56 108 22 2 14 44 31 80 2 0 89
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Luis Melendez, Ray Sadler
ODDIBE
Offense %
STAR 5
AVG 17
REP LV 56
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0
>140 0 >.375 2 >5 16 >150 0
>130 1 >.350 7
>120 5 >.325 22 2B %
>110 13 >.300 56 >45 0
>100 28 >30 6
>90 48
>80 68
>60 94
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 0 >.500 4 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 4 >.450 25 >30 0 >30 0
>.275 17 >.400 60 >20 13 >10 11
>.250 50 >.350 89 >10 81
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Daniel Murphy (LF)
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .273 .324 .422 142 517 66 141 28 2 15 75 40 68 11 6 97
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ed Kranepool, Brett Roneberg
ODDIBE
Offense %
STAR 10
AVG 27
REP LV 70
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0
>140 2 >.375 3 >5 7 >150 20
>130 5 >.350 16
>120 11 >.325 48 2B %
>110 21 >.300 83 >45 2
>100 38 >30 40
>90 60
>80 80
>60 97
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 3 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 2 >.500 8 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 11 >.450 24 >30 3 >30 0
>.275 40 >.400 60 >20 19 >10 53
>.250 77 >.350 91 >10 88
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - John Maine
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.15 11 9 27 27 154 141 71 20 65 140 103
Top Near-Age Comps: Roger Pavlik, Pete Harnish
ODDIBE
ERA %
Top 1/3 50
Mid 1/3 30
Bot 1/3 20
ERA+ % BB %
>150 7
<26 0
>
140 12 <34 2
>
130 19 <43 8
>
120 28 <51 26
>
110 41 <60 39
>
100 57 <68 65
>
90 73
>80 88 HR %
>70 96 <12 16
<17 39
K % <22 64
>154 14 <27 79
>137 41
>120 72
>103 98
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Mike Pelfrey
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.24 8 8 24 24 140 147 66 11 53 82 101
Top Near-Age Comps: Storm Davis, Mel Stottleymyre
ODDIBE
ERA %
Top 1/3 41
Mid 1/3 39
Bot 1/3 20
ERA+ % BB %
>150 2 <23 0
>140 3 <31 2
>130 8 <39 19
>120 17 <47 31
>110 31 <54 61
>100 50 <62 76
>90 73
>80 90 HR %
>70 99 <11 47
<16 75
K % <20 95
>140 0 <25 99
>124 0
>109 6
>93 19
——————————————————————-
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
OPS+ >140
Wright 71
Beltran 36
Church 15
OBP >.400
Wright 49
Beltran 18
Castillo 9
SLG >.550
Wright 46
Beltran 27
Delgado 13
BA >.325
Wright 17
Reyes 9
Castillo 7
2B >45
Wright 23
Reyes 10
Beltran 7
3B >10
Reyes 87
Beltran 2
HR >30
Wright 67
Beltran 53
Delgado 32
SB >50
Reyes 65
A. Reyes 2
ERA+ >140
Rodriguez 78
Putz 74
Wagner 61
K/9 >9
Rodriguez 93
Putz 88
Wagner 80
BB/9 <1.5
Santana 15
Wagner 10
Collazzo 4
HR/9 <0.7
Green 97
Rodriguez 69
Putz 61
All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 19, 2008 at 10:09 AM (#3033742)Yes he signed a minor league deal but Dan usually does predictions for FAs on their last teams.
BTW Anderson Hernandez is a National too (trade last season).
Dan NO predictions for Orlando or Pedro ? Also as you did Rocky Cherry (great name,no ?) could it be possible to add in Darren O'Day's as he also has a good chance to stick on the 25 man THX
Didn't see Nixon signing - removed him and I'm going to add Pedro back in.
Don't let Sam hear you say that.
The Mets need at least one of a leftfielder, second basemen, or a catcher. And a starting pitcher.
I think it would be great fun to skim through one of Boras' books on his clients. Do they ever pop up on ebay?
4-3, 4.26, 57 IP, 58 H, 5 HR, 18 BB, 36 K, 101 ERA+
Castro- 98
Delgado- 115
Murphy- 97
Reyes- 120
Wright- 149
Tatis- 100
Beltran- 133
Church- 117
GET PITCHINGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(I know people project Castillo to start at second, so his is 87, but its OBP heavy and wouldn't really hurt us at the bottom of the order.)
Oh, nice. Too scared to make the bet until you saw the ZiPs projection, eh? Needed Dan to provide you with a spine transplant? ;-)
You got it. If the Mets have the smarts to give Murphy 400 PAs, then we've got a $10 B-Ref sponsorship of the winner's choice riding on over/under, 800 OPS.
I understand the basis for the projection, of course. IMHO, it is way low on the OBP he will achieve, although in the ballpark on the slugging. We'll see.
Team OPS+ in 2008 was 107, that was with Castillo posting a 77, Easley an 82 (in 316 ABs), Chavez a 69, in 270 Abs,
MAn oh man was Castillo bad, all year Dial was railing against him- and most of the year his OPS+ was in the 90s...(.261/.365/.331 at the break) but then he hit .170/.313/.189 in August and September (only 65 PAs, but still... yikes)
Sam... you should make the bet involve screen names, like Joe C has to go by "Joe #####" if Murphy hits better than .800
I've given up on Castro (as a regular), it took awhile, back when he was an effing Marlins prospect I thought he'd be a minor star...
He's been a better player than the last 2 Mets regular catchers--- when he's been able to suit up and play. Let's face it, he clear;y would have had more PT the last 4 seasons if he wasn't hurt all the time. He has not batted between 126-209 at bats the last 4 years becasue that's his "role", he's batted so little because he's either on the DL, or limping or sulking or WTF ever. Without a chaneg in usage or role, he'd get around 250 or so at bats a year if not for injuries.
Ha ha. :-) I suppose you've got me there, even if that wasn't my intention to wait.
But it's on. >=400 PA, +/-.800 OPS.
I'll do this, but we'd have to set terms on how long for and all that.
Plus, everyone wins when a player gets sponsored at BBRef.
Niese, Church, and Beltran will be worse.
I think the Mets should sign Garland. He'll do well for the Mets.
I will be wrong about most of my predictions.
Well, that's true, of course, although "awful" is an exaggeration. I mean, Johan-Pelfrey-Maine is a nice starting point for any rotation, and Niese is a solid prospect. But no one expects the Mets to go into the season without adding a starter. The question du jour, of course, is whether it's of the Derek Lowe variety (Heyman seems consistently, and curiously, optimistic that the Mets will be right there at the end for him, FWIW), or the Randy Wolf/Jon Garland type.
We shall see.
Talk about a flash in the pan. I remember his rookie season.
Exactly. I'm in for the original bet.
Probably. But it is scary for the moment. Santana is Santana. But behind that we have John Maine (coming off surgery), Pelfrey (is he for real?), and nothing. If just one of those two guys flops, which is a reasonable prediction, you are in full on disaster mode.
Niese is nice to have but for 2009 I think the only thing he brings to the table over a random AAAA vet is the emotional understanding that he is a rookie. ("At least it's not Brian Lawrence this year, maybe getting smoked will help him grow in the future.")
Of course, Derek Lowe would help, and I think the Ollie projection is low, should he return. The Putz/KRod projections are exciting.
Good God. The core even consists of three of the hardest positions to adequately fill.
anyway, what the Mets should do is drop Castillo, put Murphy in as the full time 2B, and get 1 corner outfielder. using Schneider/Castro as the catchers isn't the best solution but it's pretty hard to find good hitting catchers that aren't overpriced (Jason Kendall) or coming out of your own farm system.
It's more complex than this, but let me try to put it simply.
ZiPS isn't looking at Santana's 2008 as a 166 ERA+ season but more like a 120 ERA+ season in which Santana had good defensive support and continued his pattern of outperforming that but should not have outperformed it by quite *that* much. ZiPS sees Santana pitching better, but exceeding his peripherals by less.
FIP+ ERA+
2005 159 155
2006 142 161
2007 109 130
2008 120 166
ZiPS 09 122 133
ZiPS also sees the K rate as more alarming than it looks on the surface because the context changed to favor him while the Ks went the wrong way. Santana lost 20% of his K rate while moving to a league that was slightly lower in quality, had pitchers instead of DHs, in a lower offensive year. Given the changes in context, Santana's drop in K rate starts to head towards a third. ZiPS isn't sounding any super-loud klaxons, but it increases the chances of Santana having a bad year.
I think it is a stretch to say they have a dud at catcher. Based on last year, and the projections, a Castro-Schneider platoon can be around average. Castillo's projection is much better than that of a black hole. So I wouldn't go as far as you did.
You don't seem to understand where replacement level is for starting pitchers. In the NL alone, there were 689 starts by pitchers with an ERA+** of 85 or below. That's 43 per team or roughly 1.3 rotation slots or 27% of starts. The median ERA+ of that group is about 76, an ERA around 5.75. Replacement level pitchers carry names like Patrick Misch and Jack Cassel. Those last two FIPS you cite are an ERA+ around 95 in Wrigley (the other two not so good but only one at replacement level :-). And Marquis has been very good about going out there and giving you 30 starts a year -- which keeps those replacement-level starters off the field.
And that's before we even get into the fact that, FIP or no FIP, Marquis has been average or better in terms of ERA+ in 4 of the last 5 seasons.
** that's their overall ERA+ not necessarily their ERA+ as starters but that seems all I can do using PI. Still, hard to imagine too many of these guys pitched worse in their bullpen stints.
Besides, Vally P. had 62 ML ABs and what did he do with those ABs? He choked, that's what, and choked so badly that the Expos had to leave Canada. Besides, I can't help noticing that while Val DOES get to the occasional ball in the OF, he's not exactly fleet of foot. It's gotta suck, though. Imagine being a very good AAA player and watching your chances fade away, year by blistering year.
I never see guys in jerseys/shirts celebrating obscure players, but I bumped into some guy in a Pascucci/Expos top in front of me at the grocery store the other day. It was more exciting (albeit fleetingly) than I ought admit.
Thank you Dan - that puts O'Day as the Mets 5th best pen arm - behind F-Rod/Putz/Green & Feliciano - so could be a nice R5 pick up
I once ran into Val and some of his teammates at Outback Steakhouse. I remember turning to my little brother and saying "that, right there, is Valentino Pascucci". One of the teammates was Australian too (Adrian Burnside).
Ah, memories.
Tell that to his shoulder, and to the lesion they removed from it on September 30th. Ahem.
First of all, they are platooning Murphy, not giving him the whole job.
Second, if the core isn't getting any younger, that is precisely a reason to give a promising young player a chance, to help the team get younger. You have to balance the short term desire to win against the long term building of a contender over time. In this particular case, obviously, I happen to think there is no short-term sacrifice, since I think Murphy will also help them win now. But even if I thought there was some short-term pain, I would say endure it in the interests of the development of a young player who can help the team down the road. You can't keep filling holes with patches and let your young players stagnate. Daniel Murphy has earned the chance to prove he can make a major contribution. There will be jobs they might well want Murphy to fill by 2010 (1B, 2B, corner OF). If you don't see what he can do in an extended number of major league ABs in 2009, you will have the exact same questions then you do now.
It also, I might add, has the critical benefit of keeping payroll down in one area so as to help them afford an upgrade elsewhere (in our case, in the rotation). Every one of Omar Minaya's comments about this subject has made clear without saying explicitly that given the way the market has gone for starters, it's a choice between a LFer or a starter, and they have chosen a starter. I, for one, think that is a pretty obvious choice . . . given that the talent on hand gives them an adequate (or better) LF option, and nothing resembling an adequate choice for the middle of the rotation.
Well, yeah. Otherwise the bet between Sam and Joe C doesn't get settled and b-r is $10 poorer.
I propose an addendum to all b-r sponsorship bets -- if the bet doesn't "qualify", each party contributes half the bet amount. That way b-r always wins ... much better than b-r having to rely on the Mets making sensible decisions!
Core isn't getting younger? WTF? This isn't the 2001 Mets ... our core is two 26 year olds, and two HOF talents just barely over 30. The Mets are not in "win now" mode. They can let a rookie or two find his footing in the majors.
Sean would've closed up shop years ago if that was case.
Twasn't what I was thinking, though. Unfortunately, what I'm afraid of is that they will be the same old Mets, and fail/refuse to give him 400 PAs because he's not a Proven Veteran™ who "deserves" the playing time because of his Longtime Track Record™. And if he fails to get to .800 because of a small sample size rather than his abilities, I don't want to be the victim of the Mets' fascination with whomever is next in line to follow the Easleys and Alous and Castillos and Andersons and Greens and Valentins and LoDucas of the world. It's certainly not hard to imagine that if Murphy gets off to a bad April, he might never get off the bench, or he could even get sent down to Buffalo, and that's that.
Actually, you make a decent point. If we also put a bet on +/-400 PA, I'd take the under on that, too.
If the Mets have $20 mil left to spend, they could probably bring in a solid SP a sketchy LF or vice versa. If they've got half that, they probably just get the SP.
Its already been pointed out that this was an overstatement but I think its bears mentioning again --- the Mets offense is NOT the problem. This team scores a TON of runs because have three superstars at 3B, SS, and CF and a good supporting cast at 1B and RF. Further, the C platoon is pretty darn good. Offense is fine. We scored the same number of runs as the Phillies last season.
The REAL problem is pitching, pitching, pitching. As someone also pointed out, we've got one legit starter, a rookie who exceeded his innings max by 50 last year, and a guy who has never thrown 200 innings coming off a season where he needed to shut it down. We need to resign Perez just to tread water -- what we really need is Perez and something consistent (a Marquis type garbage guy) or an upgrade on Perez (like Lowe) and something cheaper. If the Mets go into the season with Niese as the #5 starter, we're missing the playoffs, and I'll make a bet on that.
I think that is an overstatement of the pitching need. If you are determined to look at the negative, sure -- you can see Mike Pelfrey as a question mark instead of one of the best young pitchers in the league, and dismiss the reports that said Maine's surgery was as simple as it gets (arthroscopic, removeal of a lesion), and make it sound like the Mets have Johan Santana and a prayer.
No doubt the Mets need another starter. But as long as they get one, the starting pitching overall has a good chance to be at least as good as it was in 2008 (when it was just fine, at least until Maine's departure). Lowe as an upgrade over Perez would make that a very good bet. And Niese at # 5 is particularly unlikely to be the reason if it is worse, when you consider that last year that role was occupied by the remains of Pedro Martinez and his various fill-ins. Niese doesn't have to be particularly good to represent an upgrade. I'd rather have reliable mediocrity (and Niese gaining experience in the process) than Pedro and his inability to give the Mets innings and thus disrupt the whole season.
To answer Darren's question, I haven't done the exact math, but my strong impression is that the remaining dollars are enough for one major addition. Not for two pitchers, and not for one pitcher and a left fiedler. And the basic premise seems to be that the goal is to match last year's payroll of around $135M, so I'd estimate they must be in the mid-$120's right now.
always the tricky bit with the rotation though. Teams simply have to plan 7 starters deep these days and who the #6-7 guys are will likely be important. Now, I don't know how one unearths good #6-7 guys (other than having good young prospects ready to make the jump mid-season) but you at least want guys who can fake it, otherwise you'll be seeing Sidney Ponson (or his pitching evil twin) in a Mets uni next year.
Playing around a bit with P-I, using just 2008 data (should be close enough), these days the "median" rotation probably has an IP profile about like this:
210/190/170/140/100
That's only 810 IP while you want 970 or so out of your starters. That leaves 160 IP which, at 5 IP per start, is 32 replacement starts or one entire rotation slot. And of course that "median" rotation is the median "actual" rotation not necessarily the intended rotation -- i.e. some of those guys on that list were replacements to begin with.
I have no idea if the Mets have done a good job of that this year or not. It was just the comment of "they were fine until X got hurt." Some X is almost always going to get hurt or stink so bad he needs to be dropped from the rotation. Today you need staffs which will be fine (or better) even when X gets hurt. On average you'll be giving 1-1.5 rotation slots to some guy who starts in the minors and/or be so desperate for healthy pitching that you'll let the guy with the 83 ERA+ keep going out there every 5th day.
Note, there were 13 pitchers last year with 25+ starts and an ERA+ of 85 or below. And not all sucky teams either -- Texas, St Louis, Houston and Philly had one each. Only 3 of them could be characterized as kids with growing pains.
no of course not. but some team decided he was a good hitting catcher and paid him nearly $10 million a year on a multi-year contract. that's the kind of risk you take when you trade for a star catcher (or sign one off the free agent market).
To be fair, Jason Kendall through 2000 was basically Joe Mauer, and he signed the contract prior to 2001, when his slide began. IIRC, that contract was widely lauded at the time as a small market team managing to lock up a building block to a long term deal.
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