Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

2009 ZiPS Projection Spreadsheet First Build

2009 ZiPS Projection Spreadsheet, First Build

- All players are projected to their current or, in the case of unemployed players, their most recent teams.

Player requests are always welcome, though I can’t guarantee I’ll fill every single one.  I try to project players for whom there’s a good basis to project.  For example, Yonder Alonso, a frequently requested player, is one I can’t do because there’s little basis so far for a 2009 MLB projection.  Unfortunately, I also can’t do a projection for Mark Prior, who has pitched only a few games in 3 years.

Players are not listed next to their teams (though their stats reflect it) and will not until the end of the week.  This is a long story due to an organizational issue.  As noted, the stats do reflect their most recent or current teams.

The first build of the 2009 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9.0 will follow shortly, probably tomorrow afternoon.  I have about 2 hours more work to put in it for the first build to be released (entering in already-calculated splits for 108ish pitchers and seasons batting data for pitchers with more than 200 AB in the majors).

Dan is a fan of goods and services.  If you find that ZiPS projections meet your needs and wish to transfer the ability to exchange currency for goods and services to Dan, he would be very grateful.  Suggested donation is $50,000,000.00, but Dan sees no problem with lighter sums.




 

Dan Szymborski Posted: March 03, 2009 at 01:41 AM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Zoppity Zoop Posted: March 03, 2009 at 03:00 AM (#3090811)
I donated $12.50 but you don't get the other $12.50 until I see the words "Final Build!"
   2. David Cameron Posted: March 03, 2009 at 05:45 AM (#3090925)
Good job as always, Dan.

Just for comparison sakes, I grabbed the top 650 projected hitters (hopefully weeding out most of the guys who won't play in the majors this year) and got a weighted average wOBA of .340 (with SB/CS included, so this is the FanGraphs version of wOBA). That would be the highest level of offense since 2000.

It will be interesting to see what DMB has the projected run environment at.
   3. nemodomi Posted: March 03, 2009 at 06:11 AM (#3090948)
@ David Cameron (#2): You won't be seeing what DMB has the projected run environment at.

http://dmbforum.yuku.com/topic/5852
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 03, 2009 at 06:22 AM (#3090957)
Just for comparison sakes, I grabbed the top 650 projected hitters (hopefully weeding out most of the guys who won't play in the majors this year) and got a weighted average wOBA of .340 (with SB/CS included, so this is the FanGraphs version of wOBA). That would be the highest level of offense since 2000.


They're actually geared towards a 3-year weighted average of offense, so it's a little higher offensively than 2008's offense.

I actually tried your experiment in 2005 and scared myself when the offense looked too high - what happened was doing a quick-and-dirty look, I had 1B/OF getting too many at-bats (since I don't project major league player time).

From looking at common players, I seem to be projecting a hitting environment slightly below CHONE and way below James (which isn't unusual - the James projections somehow always feature the best hitting environment and the best pitching environment of all the projection systems).
   5. JakeWasHere Posted: March 03, 2009 at 12:11 PM (#3091030)
Dan, first comment here but I've been enjoying Zips projections for a few years. One sticks out like a sore thumb to me (especially since I based my projection league roster around a trade for this guy) and that's Jason Giambi. You have him at a .784 OPS, which would be a 101 point drop from last year, a 111 point drop from his 3 year average, and 107 points below Oliver, 45 points below Chone, and 39 below Marcel. You've also got him behind guys like Carlos Delgado, only a year younger and 45 points of OPS worse over the last three years, Mike Jacobs, Jonny Gomes of the ludicrously terrible 2008, and a number of other hitters who no team in their right mind would rather have over Giambi for 2009. I don't know if it's bad form to ##### about particular projections but I'm really curious how that happens.
   6. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: March 03, 2009 at 01:32 PM (#3091039)
I don't know how Dan accounts for ballparks in his DMB disks, but Giambi's going from Yankee Stadium (multi-year batting park factor: 103) to Oakland (93). That change plus his age probably has something to do with it.

I think.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 03, 2009 at 02:37 PM (#3091064)
I will re-run Giambi's projection and make sure I get the same thing.
   8. Willie Mayspedes Posted: March 03, 2009 at 07:06 PM (#3091375)
Dan thanks as always I look forward to this day every year. Gives me something professional looking to stare at while pretending to work. I have a few questions.

Are you going to include team names on the final build? Also probably a minor typo but you have Gaby Hernandez breaking the season strikeout record :)
   9. JakeWasHere Posted: March 03, 2009 at 08:36 PM (#3091521)
Appreciate it Dan.
   10. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 03, 2009 at 08:50 PM (#3091559)
Thanks Dan! I'm exceptionally glad that you do what you do and think (naively - I conduct no studies) that your estimates have gotten tighter and tighter each season. Additionally, I already thought your work with hitting and pitching had surpassed the official DMB projections some time back.

Since I like to pester you with suggestions - here's a few (obviously, feel free to ignore them):
* How much work would it be to add defensive ratings/numbers? I figure you already have them for the DMB build - popping 'em into a 2nd hitters tab might not be too much extra work...
* Of all your tinkerings with the presentation of the stats in the team specific threads here, adding OPS+/ERA+ were far and away my favorites. Though they lack a link to DMB, would you consider adding these columns?
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 03, 2009 at 08:51 PM (#3091565)
Many, many, many thanks Dan!
   12. jayjay Posted: March 03, 2009 at 09:15 PM (#3091593)
Did I miss something, or have the White Sox and Yankees teams not been posted yet?
   13. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 03, 2009 at 09:17 PM (#3091601)
you haven't - dan was trying to get the disk/sheet done first.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 03, 2009 at 09:23 PM (#3091609)
I'll probably do OPS+ and ERA+ in the final final version since I can't do it automatically and don't want to have to re-do it every time I add 10 players.

I've actually snuck OPS+ and ERA+ into a lot of players in DMB, using fields I don't bother with (catcher's interference for hitters and balks for pitchers - don't worry, that's not in the event table), which is why you've seen OPS+ and ERA+ in the formatted DMB reports.
   15. gsulife Posted: March 03, 2009 at 10:15 PM (#3091677)
gaby hernandez (whoever that is) is projected to accumulate 656 strikeouts in 126 innings pitched. that would be, like, a record or something.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 03, 2009 at 10:26 PM (#3091700)
Yup, Gaby Hernandez should obviously be 65 strikeouts! I had beered-up keyboard for a bit and I was getting 32 as "323" and 65 as "656" if I typed too fast. Thought I had wrung all that out!
   17. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 03, 2009 at 10:29 PM (#3091706)
I'll probably do OPS+ and ERA+ in the final final version
(yay!)
since I can't do it automatically
(boo!)

Extra work for you: bad.

Oh, by the way, can you project these additional 27 guys?... More seriously, who do you not want to do (I mean this as a long run question - not just specific guys from this year)? Guys without pro experience - sure. You'll do Japan/NPB - presumably not the industrial leagues (I sure wouldn't). You did Alexei (reluctantly?) last year, will you do Viciedo/other Cubans? What about guys from Mexico (Galarraga/Castaneda are the two that jump out - but then there's the issue of using that data for other guys too - like Arnold Leon, Fernando Salas, etc...)? Korea (no one stands out)/Taiwan (Ni)? I can't imagine European data being worth thinking about (sorry Oscar Salazar). US indy data is out too, I imagine.
   18. Diamond Posted: March 04, 2009 at 04:44 PM (#3092215)
thanks for the projections. first time to see/use them. Is there a way to organize by position? Also, how are they ordered? Looks like RC for batters, but what about pitchers? Also, do you not have Saves projected? not showing up for me. Thanks again
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 04, 2009 at 05:17 PM (#3092256)
since I can't do it automatically
(boo!)

Extra work for you: bad.


It's not bad. I already have predicted offensive environments in ZiPS so that ZiPS can calculate the ERA+ and OPS+ in the first place. So I just have to move that list to the projection spreadsheet, do some VLOOKUP with teams and then enter in the OPS+/ERA+ formula. Since I use DMB to build the spreadsheet after entering in the players, that makes some extra steps to do it while I'm still adding players.


Oh, by the way, can you project these additional 27 guys?... More seriously, who do you not want to do (I mean this as a long run question - not just specific guys from this year)?


Namely, I want to players that I feel I have a firm basis to make a projection, which is generally players in the minors, preferably high-A, and the Japanese majors. After all, it doesn't do me any good to make projections I'm not confident in!

More than that, it depends on the player. When it became clear that Alexei Ramirez was going to be given an immediate shot, not just starting at Birmingham with a "wait-and-see" then I really had to project him. Same with Weeks and Street a few years ago, I simply had no real choice but to utilize a rudimentary college translation because of the roles they're going to play. Give me anyone that's realistically going to get serious time in the majors and I'll do a projection, no matter how crap the data. For a player that's heading to high-A or AA directly from Cuba or Mexico or Korea? I'd like to avoid that when I have the luxury of doing so!
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 04, 2009 at 05:30 PM (#3092270)
thanks for the projections. first time to see/use them. Is there a way to organize by position? Also, how are they ordered? Looks like RC for batters, but what about pitchers? Also, do you not have Saves projected? not showing up for me. Thanks again

You should be able to simply sort by position in Excel. The players are sorted by RC/27 in descending order, the pitchers by ERA in ascending order, but you're free to sort them however you'd like.

I don't project saves (outside of doing 3 year weighted MLB saves on the projection disk so that people don't see a line of zeroes) because, unlike the other stats, saves are so reliant on managerial usage decisions. Sure, things like stolen bases also reflect managerial desires, but Carl Crawford's always going to steal bases no matter who his manager is, while a specific pitcher can go from 30 saves to 2 saves at a snap of a finger.

I know it occasionally makes fantasy players that like ZiPS less gruntled than they would be otherwise, but I have two first principles (or a first and a second principle) with doing projections:

- Make projections that are derived from data of quality that one can reasonably base a projection on.

- Do not interject my personal opinion into the numbers in any way whatsoever, aside from things I develop in objective research.

Doing a good saves projection involves me having to break the second one.
   21. Diamond Posted: March 04, 2009 at 05:50 PM (#3092295)
but unless your league uses holds, that really makes the RP info pretty useless. Afterall, what else do I want a RP for, except holds/saves?
   22. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 04, 2009 at 07:34 PM (#3092455)
For a player that's heading to high-A or AA directly from Cuba or Mexico or Korea? I'd like to avoid that when I have the luxury of doing so!

Very fair... so what about AAA? ;)
Viciedo is probably the only guy in that motley bunch with a decent chance of opening the year in the bigs. Maybe Walter Silva (MEX/SDP) - though I don't see him as a big league talent and very probably not but I wouldn't completely totally rule it out yet Joel Galarraga (if he leapfrogs Bowen and Powell).
   23. StillFlash Posted: March 06, 2009 at 07:32 AM (#3094215)
Check for some HBP goofs, such as Elvis Andrus 42...there are other guys who show a sharp uptick in HBP in 2009, although not that high, Abercrombie 7 in 2008 to 21, Bobby Abreu 4 to 23, etc...overall HP/PA of all players is .011, .010, .010 2006-2008, then .018 for 2009
   24. StillFlash Posted: March 07, 2009 at 01:08 AM (#3095018)
My bad, somehow got HBP switched with SB...have reimported
   25. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: March 07, 2009 at 01:14 AM (#3095021)
but unless your league uses holds, that really makes the RP info pretty useless. Afterall, what else do I want a RP for, except holds/saves?

How about WHIP, K and wins? I don't know a good fantasy player alive that doesn't use several closer/set-up men as much for their WHIP and high K/9, as well as vulture wins.
   26. Runscreated Posted: March 08, 2009 at 10:44 PM (#3096106)
but unless your league uses holds, that really makes the RP info pretty useless. Afterall, what else do I want a RP for, except holds/saves?

How about WHIP, K and wins? I don't know a good fantasy player alive that doesn't use several closer/set-up men as much for their WHIP and high K/9, as well as vulture wins.


Here we go again, any "fantasy league" that does not value all relief pitched innings does not mirror major league baseball. I feel if you are going to play a league based on stats, the stats should reflect as best they can the final outcome. Is the winning roto team always the best team in terms of best season on the field? Roto baseball over-values the save, but does not give enough value to the middle reliever. The categories approach to roto leagues is flawed, but will probably be around forever.

Thanks Dan for all your hard work!

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
robinred
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.1830 seconds
47 querie(s) executed