BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 27, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

As strange as it may sound, the Nats had one of the best terrible offenses in baseball this generation. Upon reviewing last

year’s projections (adding in the benefit of knowing the 2008 park factor and league offense), I still ended up with an

amazing amount of offensive underperformers. It wasn’t an organizational issue - Nat minor leaguers didn’t underperform at

all as a group. It seemed to simply be localized in the majors.

If it was luck, not much you can do to “fix” that. If the Nationals were putting Polonium-210 in the clubhouse drinking

water, well, they could stop doing that. If it was Lenny Harris, who didn’t fare any better as a hitting coach anecdotally,

the Nats are in luck, as he was easily and mercifully fired at the end of last season.

Washington’s two main problems right now are lack of high-quality pitchers and Nick Johnson’s wrist. The team can’t do much

about the fact that Nick Johnson has some genetic flaw that caused his hand to be connected to his arm by Scotch Tape that

had been previous stuck on a carpet, but they can put some resources into bringing in some pitching, both in free agency, and

not fighting over relatively small sums of money in the amateur draft.

All in all, the Nats, like the Orioles, aren’t a good team yet, but are a lot less depressing than they were a couple of

years ago.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Jesus Flores c 24 .252 .312 .409 104 313 32 79 17 1 10 55 23 81 0 1 90 Av

FAIR
Johnny Estrada# c 33 .272 .301 .384 84 294 25 80 15 0 6 38 10 29 0 0 81 Fr
Luke Montz c 25 .242 .308 .384 111 396 46 96 18 1 12 54 37 85 0 2 83 Fr

POOR
Wil Nieves c 31 .245 .289 .322 78 233 19 57 10 1 2 22 14 29 1 1 63 Vg

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Nick Johnson* 1b 30 .264 .416 .486 66 216 38 57 18 0 10 31 51 46 3 1 140 Av

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Dmitri Young# 1b 35 .280 .355 .434 84 279 31 78 17 1 8 36 32 53 0 0 109 Pr

FAIR
Ronnie Belliard 2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 2 1 99 Av

POOR
Larry Broadway* 1b 28 .252 .327 .394 126 432 47 109 23 1 12 49 47 97 2 2 91 Fr
Kory Casto* 1b 27 .240 .316 .371 116 388 43 93 19 1 10 50 42 87 2 2 83 Av
Luke Montz c 25 .242 .308 .384 111 396 46 96 18 1 12 54 37 85 0 2 83 Fr
Yurendell de Caster 3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 8 6 78 Vg
Chris Marrero 1b 20 .227 .273 .385 105 410 42 93 15 1 16 44 24 71 0 2 73 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
Ronnie Belliard 2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 2 1 99 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Willie Harris* lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 14 7 95 Fr

FAIR
Yurendell de Caster 3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 8 6 78 Pr
Leonard Davis* lf 25 .243 .283 .421 123 456 48 111 23 2 18 53 22 90 8 8 84 Pr

POOR
Alberto Gonzalez ss 26 .260 .313 .348 80 227 29 59 12 1 2 14 16 27 1 1 76 Vg
Ray Olmedo# ss 28 .252 .300 .326 106 337 33 85 14 1 3 26 22 49 9 6 67 Av
Ed Rogers ss 30 .255 .289 .335 110 373 35 95 15 0 5 25 15 57 11 7 66 Fr
Anderson Hernandez# ss 26 .245 .285 .318 136 535 64 131 21 3 4 41 30 82 13 6 61 Av
Pete Orr* 2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 10 3 60 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Ryan Zimmerman 3b 24 .280 .342 .481 137 553 82 155 33 3 24 76 51 99 2 0 116 Vg

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Ronnie Belliard 2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 2 1 99 Fr

FAIR
Willie Harris* lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 14 7 95 Av

POOR
Kory Casto* 1b 27 .240 .316 .371 116 388 43 93 19 1 10 50 42 87 2 2 83 Fr
Yurendell de Caster 3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 8 6 78 Fr
Leonard Davis* lf 25 .243 .283 .421 123 456 48 111 23 2 18 53 22 90 8 8 84 Pr
Ed Rogers ss 30 .255 .289 .335 110 373 35 95 15 0 5 25 15 57 11 7 66 Fr
Pete Orr* 2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 10 3 60 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Cristian Guzman# ss 31 .299 .336 .423 100 411 56 123 22 4 7 35 21 43 3 3 101 Av

AVERAGE
Ronnie Belliard 2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 2 1 99 Pr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Alberto Gonzalez ss 26 .260 .313 .348 80 227 29 59 12 1 2 14 16 27 1 1 76 Av

POOR
Ray Olmedo# ss 28 .252 .300 .326 106 337 33 85 14 1 3 26 22 49 9 6 67 Av
Ed Rogers ss 30 .255 .289 .335 110 373 35 95 15 0 5 25 15 57 11 7 66 Fr
Ian Desmond ss 23 .226 .283 .348 116 425 45 96 19 0 11 36 31 81 18 11 67 Vg
Anderson Hernandez# ss 26 .245 .285 .318 136 535 64 131 21 3 4 41 30 82 13 6 61 Av
Pete Orr* 2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 10 3 60 Pr

————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ LF RF

VERY GOOD
Elijah Dukes# rf 25 .255 .375 .461 95 321 52 82 17 2 15 38 56 84 11 7 121 Av Av

AVERAGE
Josh Willingham lf 30 .259 .355 .458 121 424 59 110 24 3 18 65 49 93 3 0 114 Pr
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Lastings Milledge cf 24 .280 .343 .452 128 471 67 132 23 2 18 60 36 89 21 7 110 Av Fr

FAIR
Austin Kearns rf 29 .252 .351 .400 121 437 63 110 24 1 13 60 58 92 3 1 100 Vg

POOR
Willie Harris* lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 14 7 95 Vg
Ryan Langerhans* cf 29 .239 .341 .375 131 301 46 72 16 2 7 33 45 82 5 2 91 Vg Av
Jorge Padilla rf 29 .271 .330 .370 105 376 46 102 17 1 6 43 28 55 10 5 86 Av Vg
Justin Maxwell cf 25 .234 .300 .429 89 333 49 78 15 1 16 44 29 68 24 8 91 Vg Vg
Rogearvin Bernadina* cf 25 .262 .318 .373 119 466 65 122 21 2 9 42 37 93 43 12 84 Vg Vg
Wily Mo Pena lf 27 .246 .303 .401 98 289 30 71 13 1 10 29 21 85 1 1 86 Pr Pr
Kory Casto* 1b 27 .240 .316 .371 116 388 43 93 19 1 10 50 42 87 2 2 83 Fr Fr
Marvin Lowrance* lf 24 .228 .295 .387 124 457 49 104 22 0 17 50 40 89 3 3 80 Pr Pr
Yurendell de Caster 3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 8 6 78 Fr Fr
Leonard Davis* lf 25 .243 .283 .421 123 456 48 111 23 2 18 53 22 90 8 8 84 Av Av
Alex Escobar rf 30 .241 .293 .365 48 170 19 41 9 0 4 20 12 33 2 2 74 Av Vg
Chris Marrero 1b 20 .227 .273 .385 105 410 42 93 15 1 16 44 24 71 0 2 73 Fr Fr
Pete Orr* 2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 10 3 60 Av Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Elijah Dukes# rf 25 .255 .375 .461 95 321 52 82 17 2 15 38 56 84 11 7 121 Pr

VERY GOOD
Lastings Milledge cf 24 .280 .343 .452 128 471 67 132 23 2 18 60 36 89 21 7 110 Fr

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Willie Harris* lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 14 7 95 Fr

FAIR
Ryan Langerhans* cf 29 .239 .341 .375 131 301 46 72 16 2 7 33 45 82 5 2 91 Fr
Jorge Padilla rf 29 .271 .330 .370 105 376 46 102 17 1 6 43 28 55 10 5 86 Pr
Justin Maxwell cf 25 .234 .300 .429 89 333 49 78 15 1 16 44 29 68 24 8 91 Av
Rogearvin Bernadina* cf 25 .262 .318 .373 119 466 65 122 21 2 9 42 37 93 43 12 84 Av

POOR
Wily Mo Pena lf 27 .246 .303 .401 98 289 30 71 13 1 10 29 21 85 1 1 86 Pr
Alex Escobar rf 30 .241 .293 .365 48 170 19 41 9 0 4 20 12 33 2 2 74 Fr
Pete Orr* 2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 10 3 60 Fr

—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+

MIDDLE THIRD
John Lannan* 24 4.11 11 11 29 28 171.0 171 78 19 59 98 107
Shawn Hill 28 4.45 4 6 17 17 91.0 104 45 7 25 50 98
Daniel Cabrera 28 4.62 9 13 31 31 185.0 179 95 21 99 165 95
Scott Olsen* 25 4.76 9 12 32 32 191.0 206 101 28 65 131 92
Jordan Zimmermann 23 4.81 6 8 26 25 131.0 135 70 18 57 88 91
Tim Redding 31 4.82 8 13 30 29 170.0 184 91 23 60 111 91
Odalis Perez* 32 4.84 6 10 26 23 132.0 147 71 18 43 92 90
Jason Bergmann 27 4.94 5 9 35 22 142.0 150 78 22 53 106 89

BOTTOM THIRD
Garrett Mock 26 5.02 5 7 30 20 122.0 134 68 15 49 87 87
Shairon Martis 22 5.13 7 12 27 27 144.0 158 82 20 64 87 85
Matt Chico* 26 5.13 4 7 20 19 107.0 122 61 15 38 63 85
Collin Balester 23 5.24 7 12 30 30 158.0 179 92 24 58 100 84
Marco Estrada 25 5.66 4 8 22 18 97.0 112 61 15 42 58 77
Michael O’Connor* 28 5.72 3 6 17 17 85.0 99 54 18 26 47 77
Tyler Clippard 24 5.75 5 13 27 27 133.0 147 85 22 74 90 76
Ross Detwiler* 23 5.93 3 8 18 17 82.0 94 54 13 42 46 74
Luis Atilano 24 6.06 3 7 22 16 101.0 123 68 19 34 34 72
Mike Hinckley* 26 6.46 3 11 33 17 117.0 145 84 18 62 53 68

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+

MIDDLE THIRD
Saul Rivera 31 3.80 5 4 71 0 83.0 82 35 3 39 62 115
Chad Cordero 27 3.91 3 2 46 0 46.0 45 20 6 16 40 112
Joel Hanrahan 27 3.92 5 4 70 0 85.0 76 37 9 43 92 112
Steven Shell 26 4.19 3 4 71 0 86.0 84 40 13 29 69 105
Jesus Colome 31 4.50 2 3 56 0 64.0 64 32 6 30 46 97

BOTTOM THIRD
Terrell Young 23 4.96 2 4 36 0 49.0 52 27 5 31 25 88
Brian Sanches 30 4.98 4 2 50 0 56.0 59 31 10 21 51 88
Levale Speigner 28 4.98 2 4 38 2 65.0 75 36 7 23 31 88

* - Throws Left

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .280 .342 .481 137 553 82 155 33 3 24 78 51 99 2 0 116

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ron Santo, Adrian Beltre

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR 41
AVG 76
REP LV 99

OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 1 >.400 1 >10 1 >200 0
>140 8 >.375 10 >5 15 >150 60
>130 20 >.350 40
>120 41 >.325 77 2B %
>110 66 >.300 97 >45 4
>100 86 >30 71
>90 96
>80 99
>60 100

BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 7 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 2 >.500 32 >40 2 >50 0
>.300 19 >.450 77 >30 12 >30 0
>.275 55 >.400 97 >20 80 >10 0
>.250 90 >.350 100 >10 100

(Based on Projected ABs)

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Lastings Milledge (CF)
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .280 .343 .452 128 471 67 132 23 2 18 60 36 89 21 7 110

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jose Cardenal, Chet Lemon

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR 43
AVG 77
REP LV 90

OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 2 >10 0 >200 0
>140 4 >.375 11 >5 21 >150 5
>130 11 >.350 41
>120 27 >.325 81 2B %
>110 50 >.300 98 >45 0
>100 74 >30 10
>90 91
>80 98
>60 100

BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 2 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 3 >.500 14 >40 0 >50 1
>.300 16 >.450 50 >30 2 >30 20
>.275 53 >.400 88 >20 31 >10 98
>.250 94 >.350 99 >10 96

(Based on Projected ABs)

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - John Lannan
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.11 11 11 29 28 171 171 78 19 59 98 107

Top Near-Age Comps: Tom Glavine, Dave Fleming

ODDIBE

ERA %
Top 1/3 50
Mid 1/3 36
Bot 1/3 14

ERA+ % BB %
>150 5

<29 0
>

140 9

<38 5
>

130 17

<48 24
>

120 28

<57 47
>

110 43

<67 67
>

100 63

<76 91
>

90 82
>80 96 HR %
>70 100 <13 11
<19 50
K % <25 79
>171 0 <30 97
>152 0
>133 4
>114 21

(Based on Projected IP)

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Daniel Cabrera
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.62 9 13 31 31 185 170 95 21 99 165 95

Top Near-Age Comps: Stan Williams, Darryl Kile

ODDIBE

ERA %
Top 1/3 30
Mid 1/3 39
Bot 1/3 31

ERA+ % BB %
>150 1 <31 0
>140 2 <41 0
>130 5 <51 2
>120 13 <62 9
>110 24 <72 20
>100 43 <82 29
>90 65
>80 83 HR %
>70 93 <14 17
<21 52
K % <27 73
>185 14 <33 89
>164 36
>144 72
>123 90

(Based on Projected IP)

——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ >140

Dukes 19
Willingham 8
Zimmerman 8

OBP >.400

Dukes 24
Young 8
Kearns 7

SLG >.550

Zimmerman 7
Dukes 6
Willingham 4

BA >.325

Guzman 17
Young 4
Milledge 3

2B >45

Zimmerman 4

3B >10

Harris 2
Zimmerman 1

HR >30

Zimmerman 12
Lowrance 4
Milledge 2

SB >50

Bernandina 36
Milledge 1

ERA+ >140

Hanrahan 20
Rivera 13
Shell 13

K/9 >9

Hanrahan 49
Sanches 20
Cabrera 14

BB/9 <1.5

Hill 12
O'Connor 9
Perez 8

HR/9 <0.7

Rivera 92
Hill 49
Hanrahan 28

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

ZiPS 2009 Archive

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Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2008 at 08:27 PM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: December 27, 2008 at 08:56 PM (#3038936)

what are some thoughts on rogearvin bernadina. i saw him play in harrisburgh in 2007, and he was a spark at the top of the lineup, but i never expected him to approach a .330 batting average at any level, though i guess you could say he was repeating the league and 24 years old.

i know he's not .350 batting average good, but what's his peak look like? is it .320/.360/.500 with 60 SB, or is it more like .290/.330/.390 with 35 SB?

2. number 6 Posted: December 27, 2008 at 10:33 PM (#3038952)

why is john lannan proected to be in the middle third, yet when I look at the percentages, it says that there is a 50% chance that he is in the top third? is there also a 10% chance that he's the worst player in baseball?

3. Dan The Mediocre Posted: December 27, 2008 at 10:46 PM (#3038959)

why is john lannan proected to be in the middle third, yet when I look at the percentages, it says that there is a 50% chance that he is in the top third? is there also a 10% chance that he's the worst player in baseball?

Well, his mean projection is an ERA+ of 107, which is middle third. I'm guessing that the theoretical seasons where he'd be top third are all there by a small amount, whereas there might be a 5% chance that he has an ERA+ of 70, which would pull down the mean.

4. Walt Davis Posted: December 27, 2008 at 10:55 PM (#3038962)

or to put it another way, the line between middle third and top third is probably just above 107.

5. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2008 at 11:02 PM (#3038965)

The cutoff for top-third is 110, so he's right there.

6. ironpigpen Posted: December 27, 2008 at 11:23 PM (#3038972)

lvironpigs.wordpress.com

Eldred signs with Washington Nationals

7. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:14 AM (#3038985)

Dan, what did last year do to your HOF-esque projection for Milledge's career? Can't find the Milledge career projection thread you did a year ago. What did it have for his 2009 at the time?

8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:25 AM (#3038987)

Brad Eldred? Heh. Good luck with that.

9. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:36 AM (#3038992)

Dan, what did last year do to your HOF-esque projection for Milledge's career? Can't find the Milledge career projection thread you did a year ago. What did it have for his 2009 at the time?

Milledge's ZIPS career projection prior to the 2008 season.

10. John DiFool2 Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:39 AM (#3038995)

Wily Mo Pena needs a do-over on his career. The projection for his slugging is 46 points below his career number, and he'll be in just his age 27 season.

11. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: December 28, 2008 at 01:04 AM (#3038999)

So in this season alone, he loses about .025 of OBP and .050 of SLG. That's significant. Have to think the peak works out much lower.

12. karlmagnus Posted: December 28, 2008 at 01:18 AM (#3039003)

Wily Mo's career makes much more sense if you assume he's now about 33. Just saying...

13. Walt Davis Posted: December 28, 2008 at 03:31 AM (#3039050)

Wily Mo's career makes much more sense if you assume he's now about 33. Just saying...

Or 27-ish if you just assume he's Dave Hostetler without the walks or Pedro Munoz with more Ks or Jim Presley without the ability to stand near 3B or just Cory Snyder. Players with Pena's profile as a hitter have generally not lasted long and it doesn't help to add "poor defensive corner OF" to the resume.

Pena's projection probably is a little low but he probably has nothing more than a couple decent seasons as a bench hitter left in him.

14. Chris Needham Posted: December 28, 2008 at 03:36 AM (#3039053)

Wily Mo's also coming off a bad shoulder injury, so who knows how he'll recover. Barring injury, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nats dump him during spring training. They're loaded with outfielders... now whether those outfielder are any damn good is a different topic.

I'm glad that Dan noticed the team-wide underperformance by the offense. A handful of guys on any team always underperform, but this wasn't just one or two. Some of that was injury, but I'm definitely glad that Lenny Harris's reign of terror is over -- where there's nothing so exciting as a weakly hit ball in the general vicinity of the opposite field!

15. Frisco Cali Posted: December 28, 2008 at 03:46 AM (#3039056)

Or 27-ish if you just assume he's Dave Hostetler without the walks or Pedro Munoz with more Ks or Jim Presley without the ability to stand near 3B or just Cory Snyder

So you're saying he's just not very good?

16. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: December 28, 2008 at 04:33 AM (#3039070)

That's a pretty sweet projection for Lastings.

17. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 28, 2008 at 08:35 AM (#3039132)

That's a pretty sweet projection for Lastings.

Depends on how he good he's on defense. UZR had him at -11/150 last year and he's going to have to hit better than that projection to be a good player if he doesn't improve on defense.

I think Dukes beats that projection if he stays healthy. He's ridiculously talented.

18. Chris Needham Posted: December 28, 2008 at 03:40 PM (#3039155)

He's terrible defensively, and didn't show improvement at all. The team's made a few rumblings about how they want to improve there, and I think they might view him in the corner down the road.

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

19. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 28, 2008 at 10:21 PM (#3039239)

How much of this underperformance was a result of the ballpark change? What would happen if you reran last year's projections using what we know about Nationals Park?

-- MWE

20. andrewberg Posted: December 29, 2008 at 01:38 AM (#3039292)

Is there a way to look at other players' career projections like the Milledge one?

21. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 29, 2008 at 04:22 AM (#3039349)

It's pretty sad that Jordan Zimmermann would already be the team's fifth starter, according to ZiPS.

22. Ironic Goat Posted: December 29, 2008 at 06:15 PM (#3039604)

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

Come on, Chris. You know better than that.

http://dcbb.blogspot.com/2007/11/help-im-choking.html

As far as I know, Nook Logan has not yet become an astronaut.

23. TerpNats Posted: December 29, 2008 at 08:02 PM (#3039732)

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

If that means the rest of his career could resemble Von Hayes', I suppose that's reason for limited optimism.

24. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:54 PM (#3039874)

Goat: There's a special place in hell for you for dredging that up. I'll have my therapist send you the bill.

That, Ruben Rivera and Jack Cust are all inner-circle hall of famers in that category.

25. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:56 PM (#3039876)

Hey, at least they're officially mentioning Jordan Zimmerman as a starter, it shows that their FO are at least paying attention to the more talented portions of their minor league roster instead of a constant flow of retreads.

I wonder how Willingham would rate for 200+ PA at first. I know it would be basically minors numbers to go on, but that would be the team efficiency at the moment.

26. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:58 PM (#3039879)

Also, those Hernandez numbers are brutal.

27. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:02 PM (#3039880)

But he batted .320 last year!!!!! /every_stupid_msg_board_nats_fan

I do wonder what their plans are for there. I'd almost love to see them spot Willie Harris back there just to get him in the lineup. He's sure to be a step worse than last season with the bat, and his defense probably isn't first rate, but considering the alternative is a 450-pound Ronnie Belliard playing out near the warning track in right, I'd be willing to chance it.

28. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:09 PM (#3039886)

Well, somebody has to make the last out, it'll make the pitchers feel better.

29. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:13 PM (#3039890)

Plus, I need at least ONE fat guy playing. I mean, we're not competing really anyway, so it may as well be Bellylard. Maybe he can pull that glove flip play again to make me forget the twenty other times he forgets where he's supposed to be.

30. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:30 PM (#3039903)

Well, we all know that the second that NJ gets a hangnail, Jimbo's going to be itching to bring the whale back up from Syracuse -- assuming the van transporting him to DC can make it up and over the Poconos.

31. Repoz

Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:38 PM (#3039909)

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

Is there anything finer then watching Milledge assininnyly get thrown out on the bases...and then run off the field with his helmet tucked under his arm.

Sweet!

32. Chris Needham Posted: December 30, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#3039941)

C'mon Repoz. That's not fair. If he DID make it to third base with two outs in the bottom of the ninth down 3 runs, you'd be the first one cheering him!

33. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 30, 2008 at 04:48 PM (#3040260)

Yeah, that's almost as much fun as watching him field with one foot starting in the warning track.

34. Chris Needham Posted: December 30, 2008 at 11:19 PM (#3040574)

With Belliard playing rover and a linebacker to his right for most of the season, do you blame him? I'd get as far away from those guys as I could too.

35. Infinite Joost (Voxter)

Posted: December 31, 2008 at 09:49 PM (#3041256)

1. I had forgotten how good Dukes was last year when he was actually playing.

2. I sincerely hope he makes it, because with the retirement of Bonds and the impending loss of Sheffield in the next few years, baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.

36. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: January 05, 2009 at 12:00 AM (#3043140)

baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.

milton bradley might have something to say about that.

37. JPWF13

Posted: January 05, 2009 at 06:20 PM (#3043526)

baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.

milton bradley might have something to say about that.

Well Milton doesn't seem to be a"bad" person, he seems to have legitimate psychiatric issues.
Dukes, well, he appears to be a genuinely bad guy on top of his psychiatric issues

38. thetailor Posted: February 11, 2009 at 10:17 PM (#3074912)

Player, OPS+ (except Dunn who is obp/slg)

Guzman, 101
Milledge, 110
Zimmerman, 116
Dunn, .385/.522
Johnson, 140
Dukes, 121
Belliard, 99
Flores, 90

That lineup can do some serious damage. And while you're at it, put me down for the over on Zimmerman and Milledge.

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Saturday, December 27, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

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