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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 27, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

As strange as it may sound, the Nats had one of the best terrible offenses in baseball this generation.  Upon reviewing last

year’s projections (adding in the benefit of knowing the 2008 park factor and league offense), I still ended up with an

amazing amount of offensive underperformers.  It wasn’t an organizational issue - Nat minor leaguers didn’t underperform at

all as a group.  It seemed to simply be localized in the majors.

If it was luck, not much you can do to “fix” that.  If the Nationals were putting Polonium-210 in the clubhouse drinking

water, well, they could stop doing that.  If it was Lenny Harris, who didn’t fare any better as a hitting coach anecdotally,

the Nats are in luck, as he was easily and mercifully fired at the end of last season.

Washington’s two main problems right now are lack of high-quality pitchers and Nick Johnson’s wrist.  The team can’t do much

about the fact that Nick Johnson has some genetic flaw that caused his hand to be connected to his arm by Scotch Tape that

had been previous stuck on a carpet, but they can put some resources into bringing in some pitching, both in free agency, and

not fighting over relatively small sums of money in the amateur draft.

All in all, the Nats, like the Orioles, aren’t a good team yet, but are a lot less depressing than they were a couple of

years ago.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Jesus Flores         c   24 .252 .312 .409 104 313 32 79 17 1 10 55 23 81 0 1   90 Av

FAIR
Johnny Estrada#      c   33 .272 .301 .384 84 294 25 80 15 0 6 38 10 29 0 0   81 Fr
Luke Montz           c   25 .242 .308 .384 111 396 46 96 18 1 12 54 37 85 0 2   83 Fr

POOR
Wil Nieves           c   31 .245 .289 .322 78 233 19 57 10 1 2 22 14 29 1 1   63 Vg

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Nick Johnson*        1b 30 .264 .416 .486 66 216 38 57 18 0 10 31 51 46 3 1 140 Av

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Dmitri Young#        1b 35 .280 .355 .434 84 279 31 78 17 1 8 36 32 53 0 0 109 Pr

FAIR
Ronnie Belliard       2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 2 1   99 Av

POOR
Larry Broadway*      1b 28 .252 .327 .394 126 432 47 109 23 1 12 49 47 97 2 2   91 Fr
Kory Casto*          1b 27 .240 .316 .371 116 388 43 93 19 1 10 50 42 87 2 2   83 Av
Luke Montz           c   25 .242 .308 .384 111 396 46 96 18 1 12 54 37 85 0 2   83 Fr
Yurendell de Caster     3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 8 6   78 Vg
Chris Marrero         1b 20 .227 .273 .385 105 410 42 93 15 1 16 44 24 71 0 2   73 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
Ronnie Belliard       2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 2 1   99 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Willie Harris*        lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 14 7   95 Fr

FAIR
Yurendell de Caster     3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 8 6   78 Pr
Leonard Davis*        lf 25 .243 .283 .421 123 456 48 111 23 2 18 53 22 90 8 8   84 Pr

POOR
Alberto Gonzalez       ss 26 .260 .313 .348 80 227 29 59 12 1 2 14 16 27 1 1   76 Vg
Ray Olmedo#          ss 28 .252 .300 .326 106 337 33 85 14 1 3 26 22 49 9 6   67 Av
Ed Rogers           ss 30 .255 .289 .335 110 373 35 95 15 0 5 25 15 57 11 7   66 Fr
Anderson Hernandez#    ss 26 .245 .285 .318 136 535 64 131 21 3 4 41 30 82 13 6   61 Av
Pete Orr*          2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 10 3   60 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Ryan Zimmerman       3b 24 .280 .342 .481 137 553 82 155 33 3 24 76 51 99 2 0 116 Vg

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Ronnie Belliard       2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 2 1   99 Fr

FAIR
Willie Harris*        lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 14 7   95 Av

POOR
Kory Casto*          1b 27 .240 .316 .371 116 388 43 93 19 1 10 50 42 87 2 2   83 Fr
Yurendell de Caster     3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 8 6   78 Fr
Leonard Davis*        lf 25 .243 .283 .421 123 456 48 111 23 2 18 53 22 90 8 8   84 Pr
Ed Rogers           ss 30 .255 .289 .335 110 373 35 95 15 0 5 25 15 57 11 7   66 Fr
Pete Orr*          2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 10 3   60 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Cristian Guzman#      ss 31 .299 .336 .423 100 411 56 123 22 4 7 35 21 43 3 3 101 Av

AVERAGE
Ronnie Belliard       2b 34 .272 .333 .419 125 430 50 117 25 1 12 54 36 85 2 1   99 Pr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Alberto Gonzalez       ss 26 .260 .313 .348 80 227 29 59 12 1 2 14 16 27 1 1   76 Av

POOR
Ray Olmedo#          ss 28 .252 .300 .326 106 337 33 85 14 1 3 26 22 49 9 6   67 Av
Ed Rogers           ss 30 .255 .289 .335 110 373 35 95 15 0 5 25 15 57 11 7   66 Fr
Ian Desmond         ss 23 .226 .283 .348 116 425 45 96 19 0 11 36 31 81 18 11   67 Vg
Anderson Hernandez#    ss 26 .245 .285 .318 136 535 64 131 21 3 4 41 30 82 13 6   61 Av
Pete Orr*          2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 10 3   60 Pr

————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+  LF RF

VERY GOOD
Elijah Dukes#        rf 25 .255 .375 .461 95 321 52 82 17 2 15 38 56 84 11 7 121 Av Av

AVERAGE
Josh Willingham       lf 30 .259 .355 .458 121 424 59 110 24 3 18 65 49 93 3 0 114 Pr  
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Lastings Milledge     cf 24 .280 .343 .452 128 471 67 132 23 2 18 60 36 89 21 7 110 Av Fr

FAIR
Austin Kearns         rf 29 .252 .351 .400 121 437 63 110 24 1 13 60 58 92 3 1 100     Vg

POOR
Willie Harris*        lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 14 7   95 Vg  
Ryan Langerhans*      cf 29 .239 .341 .375 131 301 46 72 16 2 7 33 45 82 5 2   91 Vg Av
Jorge Padilla         rf 29 .271 .330 .370 105 376 46 102 17 1 6 43 28 55 10 5   86 Av Vg
Justin Maxwell       cf 25 .234 .300 .429 89 333 49 78 15 1 16 44 29 68 24 8   91 Vg Vg
Rogearvin Bernadina*    cf 25 .262 .318 .373 119 466 65 122 21 2 9 42 37 93 43 12   84 Vg Vg
Wily Mo Pena         lf 27 .246 .303 .401 98 289 30 71 13 1 10 29 21 85 1 1   86 Pr Pr
Kory Casto*          1b 27 .240 .316 .371 116 388 43 93 19 1 10 50 42 87 2 2   83 Fr Fr
Marvin Lowrance*      lf 24 .228 .295 .387 124 457 49 104 22 0 17 50 40 89 3 3   80 Pr Pr
Yurendell de Caster     3b 29 .240 .310 .361 110 388 41 93 21 1 8 43 34 94 8 6   78 Fr Fr
Leonard Davis*        lf 25 .243 .283 .421 123 456 48 111 23 2 18 53 22 90 8 8   84 Av Av
Alex Escobar         rf 30 .241 .293 .365 48 170 19 41 9 0 4 20 12 33 2 2   74 Av Vg
Chris Marrero         1b 20 .227 .273 .385 105 410 42 93 15 1 16 44 24 71 0 2   73 Fr Fr
Pete Orr*          2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 10 3   60 Av Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Elijah Dukes#        rf 25 .255 .375 .461 95 321 52 82 17 2 15 38 56 84 11 7 121 Pr

VERY GOOD
Lastings Milledge     cf 24 .280 .343 .452 128 471 67 132 23 2 18 60 36 89 21 7 110 Fr

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Willie Harris*        lf 31 .257 .338 .395 131 354 58 91 17 4 8 32 40 69 14 7   95 Fr

FAIR
Ryan Langerhans*      cf 29 .239 .341 .375 131 301 46 72 16 2 7 33 45 82 5 2   91 Fr
Jorge Padilla         rf 29 .271 .330 .370 105 376 46 102 17 1 6 43 28 55 10 5   86 Pr
Justin Maxwell       cf 25 .234 .300 .429 89 333 49 78 15 1 16 44 29 68 24 8   91 Av
Rogearvin Bernadina*    cf 25 .262 .318 .373 119 466 65 122 21 2 9 42 37 93 43 12   84 Av

POOR
Wily Mo Pena         lf 27 .246 .303 .401 98 289 30 71 13 1 10 29 21 85 1 1   86 Pr
Alex Escobar         rf 30 .241 .293 .365 48 170 19 41 9 0 4 20 12 33 2 2   74 Fr
Pete Orr*          2b 30 .240 .287 .315 108 254 39 61 10 3 1 15 15 50 10 3   60 Fr

—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

MIDDLE THIRD
John Lannan*          24   4.11 11 11 29 28   171.0 171   78 19   59   98 107
Shawn Hill           28   4.45   4   6 17 17   91.0 104   45   7   25   50   98
Daniel Cabrera         28   4.62   9 13 31 31   185.0 179   95 21   99 165   95
Scott Olsen*          25   4.76   9 12 32 32   191.0 206 101 28   65 131   92
Jordan Zimmermann       23   4.81   6   8 26 25   131.0 135   70 18   57   88   91
Tim Redding           31   4.82   8 13 30 29   170.0 184   91 23   60 111   91
Odalis Perez*        32   4.84   6 10 26 23   132.0 147   71 18   43   92   90
Jason Bergmann         27   4.94   5   9 35 22   142.0 150   78 22   53 106   89

BOTTOM THIRD
Garrett Mock         26   5.02   5   7 30 20   122.0 134   68 15   49   87   87
Shairon Martis         22   5.13   7 12 27 27   144.0 158   82 20   64   87   85
Matt Chico*          26   5.13   4   7 20 19   107.0 122   61 15   38   63   85
Collin Balester       23   5.24   7 12 30 30   158.0 179   92 24   58 100   84
Marco Estrada         25   5.66   4   8 22 18   97.0 112   61 15   42   58   77
Michael O’Connor*      28   5.72   3   6 17 17   85.0   99   54 18   26   47   77
Tyler Clippard         24   5.75   5 13 27 27   133.0 147   85 22   74   90   76
Ross Detwiler*        23   5.93   3   8 18 17   82.0   94   54 13   42   46   74
Luis Atilano         24   6.06   3   7 22 16   101.0 123   68 19   34   34   72
Mike Hinckley*        26   6.46   3 11 33 17   117.0 145   84 18   62   53   68

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

MIDDLE THIRD
Saul Rivera           31   3.80   5   4 71   0   83.0   82   35   3   39   62 115
Chad Cordero         27   3.91   3   2 46   0   46.0   45   20   6   16   40 112
Joel Hanrahan         27   3.92   5   4 70   0   85.0   76   37   9   43   92 112
Steven Shell         26   4.19   3   4 71   0   86.0   84   40 13   29   69 105
Jesus Colome         31   4.50   2   3 56   0   64.0   64   32   6   30   46   97

BOTTOM THIRD
Terrell Young         23   4.96   2   4 36   0   49.0   52   27   5   31   25   88
Brian Sanches         30   4.98   4   2 50   0   56.0   59   31 10   21   51   88
Levale Speigner       28   4.98   2   4 38   2   65.0   75   36   7   23   31   88

* - Throws Left

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Ryan Zimmerman (3B)
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .280 .342 .481 137 553 82 155 33 3 24 78 51 99 2 0 116

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Ron Santo, Adrian Beltre

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR   41
AVG   76
REP LV 99

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   1     >.400   1     >10   1     >200   0
>140   8     >.375   10     >5     15     >150   60
>130   20     >.350   40
>120   41     >.325   77     2B     %
>110   66     >.300   97     >45   4
>100   86               >30   71
>90   96
>80   99
>60   100

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   7     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   2     >.500   32     >40   2     >50   0
>.300   19     >.450   77     >30   12     >30   0
>.275   55     >.400   97     >20   80     >10   0
>.250   90     >.350   100   >10   100

(Based on Projected ABs)

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Lastings Milledge (CF)
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .280 .343 .452 128 471 67 132 23 2 18 60 36 89 21 7 110

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Jose Cardenal, Chet Lemon

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR   43
AVG   77
REP LV 90

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   2     >10   0     >200   0
>140   4     >.375   11     >5     21     >150   5
>130   11     >.350   41
>120   27     >.325   81     2B     %
>110   50     >.300   98     >45   0
>100   74               >30   10
>90   91
>80   98
>60   100

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   2     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   3     >.500   14     >40   0     >50   1
>.300   16     >.450   50     >30   2     >30   20
>.275   53     >.400   88     >20   31     >10   98
>.250   94     >.350   99     >10   96

(Based on Projected ABs)

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - John Lannan
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       4.11 11 11 29 28 171 171   78 19   59   98   107

Top Near-Age Comps:  Tom Glavine, Dave Fleming

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 50
Mid 1/3 36
Bot 1/3 14

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   5

<29 0
>

140   9

<38 5
>

130   17

<48 24
>

120   28

<57 47
>

110   43

<67 67
>

100   63

<76 91
>

90   82
>80   96     HR     %
>70   100   <13 11
<19 50
K % <25 79
>171   0     <30 97
>152   0
>133   4
>114   21

(Based on Projected IP)

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Daniel Cabrera
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       4.62   9 13 31 31 185 170   95 21   99 165   95

Top Near-Age Comps:  Stan Williams, Darryl Kile

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 30
Mid 1/3 39
Bot 1/3 31

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   1     <31 0
>140   2     <41 0
>130   5     <51 2
>120   13     <62 9
>110   24     <72 20
>100   43     <82 29
>90   65
>80   83     HR     %
>70   93     <14 17
<21 52
K % <27 73
>185   14     <33 89
>164   36
>144   72
>123   90

(Based on Projected IP)

——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ >140

Dukes     19
Willingham 8
Zimmerman   8

OBP >.400

Dukes     24
Young     8
Kearns     7

SLG >.550

Zimmerman   7
Dukes     6
Willingham 4

BA >.325

Guzman   17
Young     4
Milledge   3

2B >45

Zimmerman   4

3B >10

Harris     2
Zimmerman   1

HR >30

Zimmerman 12
Lowrance   4
Milledge   2

SB >50

Bernandina 36
Milledge   1

ERA+ >140

Hanrahan   20
Rivera   13
Shell     13

K/9 >9

Hanrahan   49
Sanches   20
Cabrera   14

BB/9 <1.5

Hill 12
O'Connor 9
Perez 8

HR/9 <0.7

Rivera 92
Hill 49
Hanrahan 28

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions


ZiPS 2009 Archive


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Diamondbacks

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Angels

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2008 at 08:27 PM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. steagles Posted: December 27, 2008 at 08:56 PM (#3038936)
what are some thoughts on rogearvin bernadina. i saw him play in harrisburgh in 2007, and he was a spark at the top of the lineup, but i never expected him to approach a .330 batting average at any level, though i guess you could say he was repeating the league and 24 years old.


i know he's not .350 batting average good, but what's his peak look like? is it .320/.360/.500 with 60 SB, or is it more like .290/.330/.390 with 35 SB?
   2. number 6 Posted: December 27, 2008 at 10:33 PM (#3038952)
why is john lannan proected to be in the middle third, yet when I look at the percentages, it says that there is a 50% chance that he is in the top third? is there also a 10% chance that he's the worst player in baseball?
   3. Dan The Mediocre Posted: December 27, 2008 at 10:46 PM (#3038959)
why is john lannan proected to be in the middle third, yet when I look at the percentages, it says that there is a 50% chance that he is in the top third? is there also a 10% chance that he's the worst player in baseball?


Well, his mean projection is an ERA+ of 107, which is middle third. I'm guessing that the theoretical seasons where he'd be top third are all there by a small amount, whereas there might be a 5% chance that he has an ERA+ of 70, which would pull down the mean.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: December 27, 2008 at 10:55 PM (#3038962)
or to put it another way, the line between middle third and top third is probably just above 107.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2008 at 11:02 PM (#3038965)
The cutoff for top-third is 110, so he's right there.
   6. ironpigpen Posted: December 27, 2008 at 11:23 PM (#3038972)
lvironpigs.wordpress.com

Eldred signs with Washington Nationals
   7. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:14 AM (#3038985)
Dan, what did last year do to your HOF-esque projection for Milledge's career? Can't find the Milledge career projection thread you did a year ago. What did it have for his 2009 at the time?
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:25 AM (#3038987)
Brad Eldred? Heh. Good luck with that.
   9. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:36 AM (#3038992)
Dan, what did last year do to your HOF-esque projection for Milledge's career? Can't find the Milledge career projection thread you did a year ago. What did it have for his 2009 at the time?

Milledge's ZIPS career projection prior to the 2008 season.
   10. John DiFool2 Posted: December 28, 2008 at 12:39 AM (#3038995)
Wily Mo Pena needs a do-over on his career. The projection for his slugging is 46 points below his career number, and he'll be in just his age 27 season.
   11. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: December 28, 2008 at 01:04 AM (#3038999)
So in this season alone, he loses about .025 of OBP and .050 of SLG. That's significant. Have to think the peak works out much lower.
   12. karlmagnus Posted: December 28, 2008 at 01:18 AM (#3039003)
Wily Mo's career makes much more sense if you assume he's now about 33. Just saying...
   13. Walt Davis Posted: December 28, 2008 at 03:31 AM (#3039050)
Wily Mo's career makes much more sense if you assume he's now about 33. Just saying...

Or 27-ish if you just assume he's Dave Hostetler without the walks or Pedro Munoz with more Ks or Jim Presley without the ability to stand near 3B or just Cory Snyder. Players with Pena's profile as a hitter have generally not lasted long and it doesn't help to add "poor defensive corner OF" to the resume.

Pena's projection probably is a little low but he probably has nothing more than a couple decent seasons as a bench hitter left in him.
   14. Chris Needham Posted: December 28, 2008 at 03:36 AM (#3039053)
Wily Mo's also coming off a bad shoulder injury, so who knows how he'll recover. Barring injury, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nats dump him during spring training. They're loaded with outfielders... now whether those outfielder are any damn good is a different topic.

I'm glad that Dan noticed the team-wide underperformance by the offense. A handful of guys on any team always underperform, but this wasn't just one or two. Some of that was injury, but I'm definitely glad that Lenny Harris's reign of terror is over -- where there's nothing so exciting as a weakly hit ball in the general vicinity of the opposite field!
   15. Frisco Cali Posted: December 28, 2008 at 03:46 AM (#3039056)
Or 27-ish if you just assume he's Dave Hostetler without the walks or Pedro Munoz with more Ks or Jim Presley without the ability to stand near 3B or just Cory Snyder

So you're saying he's just not very good?
   16. 1k5v3L Posted: December 28, 2008 at 04:33 AM (#3039070)
That's a pretty sweet projection for Lastings.
   17. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 28, 2008 at 08:35 AM (#3039132)
That's a pretty sweet projection for Lastings.

Depends on how he good he's on defense. UZR had him at -11/150 last year and he's going to have to hit better than that projection to be a good player if he doesn't improve on defense.

I think Dukes beats that projection if he stays healthy. He's ridiculously talented.
   18. Chris Needham Posted: December 28, 2008 at 03:40 PM (#3039155)
He's terrible defensively, and didn't show improvement at all. The team's made a few rumblings about how they want to improve there, and I think they might view him in the corner down the road.

Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.
   19. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 28, 2008 at 10:21 PM (#3039239)
How much of this underperformance was a result of the ballpark change? What would happen if you reran last year's projections using what we know about Nationals Park?

-- MWE
   20. andrewberg Posted: December 29, 2008 at 01:38 AM (#3039292)
Is there a way to look at other players' career projections like the Milledge one?
   21. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 29, 2008 at 04:22 AM (#3039349)
It's pretty sad that Jordan Zimmermann would already be the team's fifth starter, according to ZiPS.
   22. Ironic Goat Posted: December 29, 2008 at 06:15 PM (#3039604)
Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.


Come on, Chris. You know better than that.

http://dcbb.blogspot.com/2007/11/help-im-choking.html

As far as I know, Nook Logan has not yet become an astronaut.
   23. TerpNats Posted: December 29, 2008 at 08:02 PM (#3039732)
Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.
If that means the rest of his career could resemble Von Hayes', I suppose that's reason for limited optimism.
   24. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:54 PM (#3039874)
Goat: There's a special place in hell for you for dredging that up. I'll have my therapist send you the bill.

That, Ruben Rivera and Jack Cust are all inner-circle hall of famers in that category.
   25. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:56 PM (#3039876)
Hey, at least they're officially mentioning Jordan Zimmerman as a starter, it shows that their FO are at least paying attention to the more talented portions of their minor league roster instead of a constant flow of retreads.

I wonder how Willingham would rate for 200+ PA at first. I know it would be basically minors numbers to go on, but that would be the team efficiency at the moment.
   26. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:58 PM (#3039879)
Also, those Hernandez numbers are brutal.
   27. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:02 PM (#3039880)
But he batted .320 last year!!!!! /every_stupid_msg_board_nats_fan

I do wonder what their plans are for there. I'd almost love to see them spot Willie Harris back there just to get him in the lineup. He's sure to be a step worse than last season with the bat, and his defense probably isn't first rate, but considering the alternative is a 450-pound Ronnie Belliard playing out near the warning track in right, I'd be willing to chance it.
   28. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:09 PM (#3039886)
Well, somebody has to make the last out, it'll make the pitchers feel better.
   29. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:13 PM (#3039890)
Plus, I need at least ONE fat guy playing. I mean, we're not competing really anyway, so it may as well be Bellylard. Maybe he can pull that glove flip play again to make me forget the twenty other times he forgets where he's supposed to be.
   30. Chris Needham Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:30 PM (#3039903)
Well, we all know that the second that NJ gets a hangnail, Jimbo's going to be itching to bring the whale back up from Syracuse -- assuming the van transporting him to DC can make it up and over the Poconos.
   31. Repoz Posted: December 29, 2008 at 11:38 PM (#3039909)
Another note on Milledge: if you watch him every day, you'll come to the conclusion that he's the stupidest baserunner on the planet.

Is there anything finer then watching Milledge assininnyly get thrown out on the bases...and then run off the field with his helmet tucked under his arm.

Sweet!
   32. Chris Needham Posted: December 30, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#3039941)
C'mon Repoz. That's not fair. If he DID make it to third base with two outs in the bottom of the ninth down 3 runs, you'd be the first one cheering him!
   33. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 30, 2008 at 04:48 PM (#3040260)
Yeah, that's almost as much fun as watching him field with one foot starting in the warning track.
   34. Chris Needham Posted: December 30, 2008 at 11:19 PM (#3040574)
With Belliard playing rover and a linebacker to his right for most of the season, do you blame him? I'd get as far away from those guys as I could too.
   35. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 31, 2008 at 09:49 PM (#3041256)
1. I had forgotten how good Dukes was last year when he was actually playing.

2. I sincerely hope he makes it, because with the retirement of Bonds and the impending loss of Sheffield in the next few years, baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.
   36. steagles Posted: January 05, 2009 at 12:00 AM (#3043140)
baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.


milton bradley might have something to say about that.
   37. JPWF13 Posted: January 05, 2009 at 06:20 PM (#3043526)
baseball is a little short on crazy people at the moment.

milton bradley might have something to say about that.


Well Milton doesn't seem to be a"bad" person, he seems to have legitimate psychiatric issues.
Dukes, well, he appears to be a genuinely bad guy on top of his psychiatric issues
   38. thetailor Posted: February 11, 2009 at 10:17 PM (#3074912)
Player, OPS+ (except Dunn who is obp/slg)

Guzman, 101
Milledge, 110
Zimmerman, 116
Dunn, .385/.522
Johnson, 140
Dukes, 121
Belliard, 99
Flores, 90

That lineup can do some serious damage. And while you're at it, put me down for the over on Zimmerman and Milledge.

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