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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, October 17, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves

Not exactly the year the Braves had in mind.  Competitive in the division until the end of May, the Braves went 45-68 after being only a game out of first in the NL East on May 24.  With Glavine being ineffective and out with elbow problems, General Zod being essentially done after April, and James being unable to hit the broadside of Jim Bowden’s sense of self-satisfaction with any pitch, there just wasn’t enough pitching depth to compete.  Even Tim Hudson, normally a quite durable pitcher, went on the shelf and didn’t make it too far in the 2nd half.

The Braves have an offense that can compete, though it’s a bit fragile and a little shallow in the outfield.  The rotation will continue to be a problem, with the careers of Glavine and Smoltz both very much in the air and Hudson out for most of 2009 from his Tommy John surgery.  Jair Jurrjens really came through for the team this year but the top of the rotation will remain quite thin.  Either Parr or Hanson could surprise and be contributors, but I don’t know if it’ll be 2009 and I’m fairly sure it wouldn’t be enough to replace what the Braves didn’t get from Smoltz and Hudson in 2008.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Chipper Jones#        3b 37 .339 .435 .546 119 434 80 147 28 1 20 83 75 58 4 0
Brian McCann*        c   25 .294 .359 .517 148 528 65 155 44 1 24 94 52 71 3 0
AVERAGE 1B————————————————————————————————————————-
Kelly Johnson*        2b 27 .281 .362 .456 124 445 72 125 27 6 13 65 55 96 8 5
Casey Kotchman*      1b 26 .283 .352 .445 127 434 56 123 27 2 13 63 42 41 2 2
AVERAGE LF————————————————————————————————————————-
AVERAGE RF————————————————————————————————————————-
AVERAGE 3B————————————————————————————————————————-
Greg Norton#        lf 36 .268 .360 .409 85 198 26 53 10 0 6 27 28 45 1 1
Martin Prado         2b 25 .301 .352 .409 123 399 57 120 25 3 4 46 32 48 5 2
AVERAGE CF————————————————————————————————————————-
Matt Diaz           lf 31 .301 .335 .439 87 239 27 72 10 1 7 33   9 47 4 2
Yunel Escobar         ss 26 .283 .356 .395 133 484 65 137 26 2 8 57 51 71 5 6
AVERAGE 2B————————————————————————————————————————-
Omar Infante         3b 27 .284 .330 .397 118 363 49 103 23 3 4 41 24 59 4 1
AVERAGE SS————————————————————————————————————————-
AVERAGE C—————————————————————————————————————————
Barbaro Canizares     1b 29 .274 .323 .406 87 325 33 89 16 0 9 42 23 46 1 0
Brandon Jones*        lf 25 .255 .316 .420 138 510 65 130 29 2 17 72 45 108 12 6
Jeff Francoeur       rf 25 .263 .315 .399 156 609 75 160 34 2 15 78 40 117 2 1
Joe Borchard#        rf 30 .239 .322 .394 86 226 29 54 9 1 8 32 26 74 3 2
Ruben Gotay#        2b 26 .257 .323 .380 121 292 31 75 16 1 6 34 27 65 4 3
Scott Thorman*        1b 27 .243 .282 .437 120 387 40 94 22 1 17 60 21 79 4 1
Gregor Blanco*        cf 25 .258 .351 .328 140 466 64 120 16 4 3 43 64 94 16 9
Jordan Schafer*      cf 22 .244 .300 .415 113 455 55 111 26 2 16 64 35 97 14 12
Wes Timmons         3b 29 .235 .326 .335 101 319 38 75 17 0 5 32 34 29 8 3
Tyler Flowers         c   23 .235 .308 .382 115 434 48 102 22 0 14 57 44 86 5 8
Josh Anderson*        cf 25 .267 .310 .337 145 573 73 153 22 3 4 54 30 78 37 10
Corky Miller         c   33 .211 .298 .361 59 166 13 35 7 0 6 22 16 32 1 0
Jason Heyward*        if 19 .240 .291 .361 128 499 70 120 22 1 12 59 36 77 13 4
Diory Hernandez       2b 25 .265 .301 .369 138 529 51 140 24 2 9 59 22 74 13 14
Brent Lillibridge     ss 25 .230 .284 .361 129 488 62 112 22 3 12 57 32 106 29 8
Brandon Hicks         ss 23 .204 .276 .369 86 328 42 67 16 1 12 44 29 88 9 5
Cody Johnson*        lf 20 .211 .254 .406 123 470 36 99 20 0 24 72 29 142 6 4
Jason Phillips       c   32 .236 .288 .340 69 212 18 50 10 0 4 23 14 29 0 1
Gorkys Hernandez       cf 21 .236 .287 .333 110 454 62 107 19 2 7 45 30 74 27 9
Carl Loadenthal*      lf 27 .248 .308 .300 107 367 44 91 11 1 2 31 30 67 21 10
Clint Sammons         c   26 .218 .272 .305 102 344 27 75 15 0 5 33 23 67 4 2
Ray Serrano         c   28 .228 .250 .333 40 123 13 28 7 0 2 13   3 19 2 1
Enrique Cruz         3b 27 .207 .255 .293 89 300 21 62 14 0 4 27 18 65 4 3
Derrick Arnold#      2b 25 .205 .233 .265 99 317 24 65 11 1 2 24 11 61 10 4

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Jones#                Av        
McCann*        Av                
Johnson*            Fr          
Kotchman*          Vg            
Norton#            Av       Fr   Pr
Prado             Av Av Av Fr Av    
Diaz                     Vg   Av
Escobar                 Av      
Infante             Vg Vg Av Av Av  
Canizares           Fr            
Jones*                    Vg   Vg
Francoeur                       Av
Super Joe#                  Av   Av
Gotay#              Pr Fr Pr      
Thorman*          Vg   Pr   Av   Av
Blanco*                    Vg Av Vg
Schafer*                  Av Av Av
Timmons           Av Fr Av        
Flowers         Fr   Av            
Anderson*          Av       Vg Fr Vg
Miller         Av   Fr            
Heyward*                  Vg Av Vg
Hernandez             Av Vg Av      
Lillibridge           Av Av Av      
Hicks               Av   Av      
Johnson*                  Fr    
Phillips       Fr   Pr            
Hernandez                   Vg Vg Vg
Loadenthal*                Fr Fr Fr
Sammons         Av                
Serrano         Vg                
Cruz               Fr Fr Pr Fr   Av
Arnold#              Fr Av Fr Av   Av

Player Spotlight - Casey Kotchman
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%)  .303 .377 .501 143 489 72 149 37 3 18 82 53 41 3 2 129
Mean         .283 .352 .445 127 434 56 123 27 2 13 63 42 41 2 2 109
Pessimistic (15%) .257 .318 .384 115 393 36 101 21 1 9 47 32 42 2 2   84

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ed Kranepool, Jim Spencer

Player Spotlight - Kelly Johnson
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%)  .314 .401 .529 135 484 93 152 37 8 17 84 69 93 12 5 143
Mean         .281 .362 .456 124 445 72 125 27 6 13 65 55 96 8 5 114          
Pessimistic (15%) .244 .329 .377 114 409 45 100 22 4 8 48 44 100 6 4   83  

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Tony Phillips, George Grantham

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Rafael Soriano         29   3.13   2   1 45   0   46.0   37   16   6   14   49
Mike Gonzalez*        31   3.32   3   1 38   0   38.0   32   14   4   17   43
John Smoltz           42   3.63   8   5 20 19   119.0 117   48 12   28 110
Will Ohman*          31   3.76   3   2 75   0   55.0   50   23   4   25   51
Tim Hudson           33   3.77 12   8 27 27   172.0 171   72 14   49 104
Jair Jurrjens         23   3.80 12   9 30 30   180.0 179   76 13   58 120
Peter Moylan         30   3.88   3   2 43   0   51.0   48   22   4   24   40
AVERAGE RELIEVER—————————————————————————————————
Buddy Carlyle         31   4.06   2   2 26   4   51.0   49   23   6   18   46
Phil Stockman         29   4.11   1   1 26   0   35.0   32   16   3   22   32
Jeff Bennett         29   4.30   4   4 60   6   90.0   92   43   8   40   58
Royce Ring*          28   4.31   3   3 59   0   48.0   46   23   3   27   40
Julian Tavarez         36   4.37   3   3 57   2   70.0   75   34   6   30   57
Chris Resop           26   4.41   2   2 37   1   51.0   50   25   5   27   42
Jorge Julio           30   4.43   3   3 65   0   67.0   61   33   8   39   73
Jorge Campillo         30   4.50   5   6 25 17   116.0 127   58 14   31   70
AVERAGE STARTER—————————————————————————————————-
Manny Acosta         28   4.70   5   5 56   0   67.0   65   35   7   43   48
Kris Medlen           23   4.75   5   6 39 11   91.0 101   48 12   25   58
Blaine Boyer         27   4.77   4   5 58   6   83.0   86   44   7   41   64
Brad Nelson           27   4.84   3   4 40   5   80.0   91   43   8   26   36
Elmer Dessens         38   4.85   2   2 18   1   26.0   28   14   3   8   19
Jo-Jo Reyes*          24   4.90   7   8 26 25   134.0 141   73 16   61 101
Vladimir Nunez         34   4.92   4   5 48   4   86.0   89   47 10   49   69
Tom Glavine*          43   4.93   6   7 22 22   126.0 142   69 16   51   67
Jeff Ridgway*        28   4.98   3   3 56   0   65.0   66   36   9   33   55
Mike Hampton*        36   5.04   2   2 10 10   50.0   58   28   6   19   22
Brian Lawrence         33   5.06   5   8 17 16   96.0 119   54 10   23   45
Michael Nix           26   5.16   4   6 48   0   68.0   72   39   7   41   47
James Parr           23   5.22   8 12 31 29   157.0 177   91 21   59   86
Chuck James*          27   5.24   6 10 25 23   122.0 133   71 22   46   85
Charlie Morton         25   5.28   6   9 33 17   116.0 125   68 12   63   69
Thomas Hanson         22   5.43   6 10 27 27   131.0 136   79 23   60   90
Jonathon Rouwenhorst*    29   5.48   6 10 37 15   110.0 130   67 14   44   60
Zach Schreiber         27   5.83   2   4 46   0   54.0   57   35   9   36   42
Francisco Bueno*      28   5.87   3   6 20 16   95.0 116   62 17   33   56
Damian Moss*          32   6.25   3   7 23 12   72.0   83   50 12   49   47
Jairo Cuevas         25   6.44   3   9 17 16   81.0   94   58 14   57   45
Anthony Lerew         26   6.49   2   5 14 13   61.0   72   44 11   38   37

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Tim Hudson
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  2.95 16   6 29 29 189 168   62 12   45 126   146
Mean           3.77 12   8 27 27 172 171   72 14   49 104   115
Pessimistic (15%)  4.67   8   9 22 22 135 146   70 14   46   75   93

Top Near-Age Comps: Larry Jackson, Bob Forsch

Player Spotlight - Jair Jurrjens
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.03 16   7 33 33 205 187   89 11   52 146   143
Mean           3.80 12   9 30 30 180 179   76 13   58 120   114
Pessimistic (15%)  4.56   9   9 26 26 148 159   75 13   61   94   95

Top Near-Age Comps:  Greg Maddux, Larry Dierker

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 17, 2008 at 12:12 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. 1k5v3L Posted: October 17, 2008 at 12:56 PM (#2985540)
Dan, what would be Peavy's projection in ATL next year?
   2. Frisco Cali Posted: October 17, 2008 at 01:42 PM (#2985573)
Will Moylan be healthy to begin the season?
   3. flournoy Posted: October 17, 2008 at 01:48 PM (#2985578)
Probably not, but he should be ready by May or so. Hudson probably will not throw a pitch until 2010.

Interesting Cody Johnson projection.
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 17, 2008 at 02:32 PM (#2985619)
"Jeff Francoeur rf 25 .263 .315 .399 156 609 75 160 34 2 15 78 40 117 2 1
Joe Borchard# rf 30 .239 .322 .394 86 226 29 54 9 1 8 32 26 74 3 2"


And a special guest appearance by Joe Borchard as the Ghost of Christmas Future?

If he can't scare Francoeur straight, then I guess nobody can.
   5. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 17, 2008 at 02:45 PM (#2985634)
Barbaro Canizares        1b  29  .274  .323  .406  87 325  33  89 16  0  9  42  23  46  1  0 


Time for the glue factory, I'm afraid.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 17, 2008 at 02:46 PM (#2985635)
Has Lillibridge's value dried up?

Kinda surprised Frenchy's projections are as good as they are. I predict major shakeup of this roster before opening day.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 17, 2008 at 02:47 PM (#2985637)
Is Matt Diaz going to be ready by next year?
   8. flournoy Posted: October 17, 2008 at 02:50 PM (#2985642)
Yeah, Diaz will be ready. He was ready at the end of this year. I'm not really sure what happened to him; he was just awful before he got injured, and then he kept re-injuring himself while rehabbing.

What shakeups do you predict? Unless something fell into my lap, I wouldn't change that much. (And wouldn't plan on competing this year.)
   9. JPWF13 Posted: October 17, 2008 at 02:51 PM (#2985643)
Has Lillibridge's value dried up?


dried up completely? No, but his year was terrible, he needed at the very least to hold serve or take a step froward, but moved back two spaces-
he now looks like this guy in some respects.
   10. rfloh Posted: October 17, 2008 at 02:57 PM (#2985652)
Kinda surprised Frenchy's projections are as good as they are.


Good? He projects similarly to Ruben Gotay, a bad defensive 2b, but still a 2b, and ThorMan.
   11. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: October 17, 2008 at 03:07 PM (#2985662)
Wow...Greg Maddux comp on Jurjjens.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 17, 2008 at 03:40 PM (#2985695)
What shakeups do you predict? Unless something fell into my lap, I wouldn't change that much. (And wouldn't plan on competing this year.)

Sounds like they're the frontrunners to land Peavy. And there are rumors they'll deal Franceour and Kelly Johnson. You'll probably see them overhaul the rotation.
   13. JPWF13 Posted: October 17, 2008 at 03:55 PM (#2985705)
Kinda surprised Frenchy's projections are as good as they are.



Good? He projects similarly to Ruben Gotay, a bad defensive 2b, but still a 2b, and ThorMan.


he did hit .239/.294/.359 last year, but .263/.315/.399 is below Frenchy's career line of .268/ .312/.434 - and he'll be only 25 next year....

I vaguely recall that before 2008 many were projecting 2008 to be Frenchy's breakout year...
I think he's on the precipice now:
up- Jose Guillen
down- Cory Patterson (without the CF defensive value)
   14. Kyle S at work Posted: October 17, 2008 at 05:18 PM (#2985774)
Well that was depressing...
   15. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: October 17, 2008 at 05:37 PM (#2985804)
Prado's going to follow the Graffanino/DeRosa career path, isn't he?
   16. flournoy Posted: October 17, 2008 at 05:47 PM (#2985810)
That career path would be: Be a utility guy for the Braves and then be offered a chance to start. Suck horribly as a starter before being replaced midseason by somebody ridiculous*. Then be jettisoned by the Braves and have a nice career as a utility guy and occasional starter for other teams.


* - Graffanino was replaced by Keith Lockhart, and DeRosa was replaced by Charles Thomas, with Chipper Jones changing positions.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: October 17, 2008 at 07:59 PM (#2985959)
Wow...Greg Maddux comp on Jurjjens.

Well, Maddux ages 22-25 was good, not great. I don't thinks ZiPS is projecting many 200+ ERA+s for Jurjjens just yet. :-) The Dierker comp is in some ways more impressive at that age ... but hopefully not prophetic as age 24 is when his arm started falling off.
   18. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: October 18, 2008 at 01:06 AM (#2986137)
It's probably been asked a million times, but do the ZiPS pitching projections take into account that specific team's defense, or are the generic?
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 18, 2008 at 01:23 AM (#2986139)
Rough estimates of team defense. Regressing previous season to mean is actually a pretty good predictor (though it obviously misses the Rays ridiculous improvement).
   20. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 18, 2008 at 01:39 AM (#2986144)
What were Kotchman's MLEs? Man, talk about falling short of expectation.
   21. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: October 18, 2008 at 02:07 AM (#2986149)
Thanks Dan.
   22. John DiFool2 Posted: October 18, 2008 at 05:44 PM (#2986334)
Francouer likely has as much future volatility in his performance as anyone. He could continue down the erratic Shawon Dunston path for another decade, or he could develop like Sammy Sosa (leaving aside the whys and wherefores in Sammy's specific case), or he could perform a Ben Grieve off the deep end and wash out in a few more years. Frankly I have no idea which way he will go, but whichever way it does go it won't be remotely close to the above projection.
   23. Jose Canusee Posted: October 22, 2008 at 10:38 PM (#2992155)
Hampton comes alive!
contract aside, if he just likes to play it would be interesting to see him play the utility bat/garbage P role better than Brooks Kieschnick did.
   24. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 23, 2008 at 11:08 PM (#2993389)
I think he's on the precipice now:
up- Jose Guillen
down- Cory Patterson (without the CF defensive value)


There's down from where he is now?

a little shallow in the outfield.

They don't have a single outfielder that projects to hit like an average centerfielder. That's not shallow, the pool is empty.

That Hanson projection seems very pessimistic.
   25. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 23, 2008 at 11:47 PM (#2993407)
I wonder what the Braves are going to do with Prado and Kelly Johnson. Would Prado be someone the Padres would be interested in as part of the return for Peavy?

The Braves outfield looks really bad right now.
   26. Honkie Kong Posted: October 24, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#2993417)
I hope someone buys the myth that Prado is a legit 2B and overpays for him.
those are some shitty projections for the prospects. Schafer worse than Francoeur, Hanson just craptastic...
And I am surprised by the Yunel projection. He flashed some power once his shoulder got better.
Mccann only a 860 OPS ? :(

This team needs a power bat in the worse way possible
   27. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 24, 2008 at 10:36 AM (#2993798)
Mccann only a 860 OPS ? :(

He's actually projected for an .876 OPS after a .896 in 2008. His relatively poor 2007 season is going to hurt the projection a little bit.
   28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 23, 2008 at 05:49 AM (#3014452)
Just for fun, what's the line on Eric Campbell? I think he might go in the Rule 5.

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