———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Ramon Hernandez c 33 .263 .326 .418 125 433 49 114 23 1 14 71 35 70 1 1 91 Av
FAIR
Javier Valentin# c 33 .261 .322 .406 70 138 13 36 8 0 4 20 13 22 0 0 87 Fr
Ryan Hanigan c 28 .260 .338 .338 97 308 36 80 12 0 4 31 32 48 1 1 76 Av
POOR
Wilkin Castillo# c 25 .254 .287 .346 129 456 45 116 22 1 6 43 18 63 9 7 63 Vg
Craig Tatum c 26 .225 .266 .356 103 365 32 82 18 0 10 47 20 87 1 2 59 Fr
Chris Kroski* c 27 .209 .258 .330 36 115 9 24 5 0 3 10 6 27 0 0 51 Av
Devin Mesoraco c 21 .219 .251 .330 85 324 21 71 9 0 9 36 13 86 2 4 49 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
Joey Votto* 1b 25 .280 .353 .490 158 567 71 159 34 2 27 92 63 124 12 7 115 Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FAIR
Kevin Barker* 1b 33 .249 .328 .434 114 410 55 102 22 0 18 66 48 111 1 1 95 Av
POOR
Jeff Keppinger 2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2 88 Av
Wes Bankston 1b 25 .260 .303 .436 111 415 51 108 20 1 17 64 23 88 2 2 88 Av
Javier Valentin# c 33 .261 .322 .406 70 138 13 36 8 0 4 20 13 22 0 0 87 Fr
Adam Rosales 1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3 83 Av
Ryan Hanigan c 28 .260 .338 .338 97 308 36 80 12 0 4 31 32 48 1 1 76 Av
Todd Frazier ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8 78 Av
Luis Bolivar# 2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4 64 Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
Brandon Phillips 2b 28 .268 .320 .440 154 605 87 162 28 5 22 80 41 104 25 7 94 Vg
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FAIR
Jeff Keppinger 2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2 88 Av
Danny Richar* 2b 26 .258 .311 .417 136 508 70 131 25 4 16 63 38 97 11 5 86 Fr
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2 90 Fr
POOR
Adam Rosales 1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3 83 Pr
Drew Anderson* 2b 26 .239 .282 .389 158 581 71 139 30 6 15 69 33 137 8 5 71 Fr
Paul Janish ss 26 .228 .293 .347 131 447 50 102 21 1 10 46 35 89 5 2 65 Vg
Luis Bolivar# 2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4 64 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
VERY GOOD
Edwin Encarnacion 3b 26 .272 .354 .481 145 507 76 138 32 1 24 78 55 102 4 1 113 Fr
FAIR
Jeff Keppinger 2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2 88 Av
Wes Bankston 1b 25 .260 .303 .436 111 415 51 108 20 1 17 64 23 88 2 2 88 Pr
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2 90 Av
POOR
Adam Rosales 1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3 83 Pr
Todd Frazier ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8 78 Fr
Drew Anderson* 2b 26 .239 .282 .389 158 581 71 139 30 6 15 69 33 137 8 5 71 Fr
Juan Francisco# 3b 22 .238 .259 .419 144 589 56 140 24 1 27 87 16 163 5 5 71 Fr
Paul Janish ss 26 .228 .293 .347 131 447 50 102 21 1 10 46 35 89 5 2 65 Vg
Luis Bolivar# 2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4 64 Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Jeff Keppinger 2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2 88 Pr
FAIR
Danny Richar* 2b 26 .258 .311 .417 136 508 70 131 25 4 16 63 38 97 11 5 86 Pr
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2 90 Fr
Sea Bass Gonzalez ss 32 .258 .313 .407 63 221 28 57 13 1 6 27 13 42 1 1 84 Av
Adam Rosales 1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3 83 Pr
Chris Valaika ss 23 .258 .290 .409 148 594 65 153 25 1 21 82 24 127 6 7 78 Fr
Todd Frazier ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8 78 Fr
POOR
Paul Janish ss 26 .228 .293 .347 131 447 50 102 21 1 10 46 35 89 5 2 65 Av
Luis Bolivar# 2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4 64 Fr
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ LF RF
VERY GOOD
Joey Votto* 1b 25 .280 .353 .490 158 567 71 159 34 2 27 92 63 124 12 7 115 Av Av
Jay Bruce* rf 22 .276 .328 .522 158 613 94 169 32 4 37 98 48 163 10 8 115 Vg Vg
AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Jonny Gomes rf 28 .239 .337 .478 104 318 50 76 18 2 18 49 39 101 8 4 108 Fr Fr
FAIR
Laynce Nix* rf 28 .259 .311 .492 111 378 49 98 18 2 22 61 25 103 4 1 103 Fr Fr
Daniel Dorn* lf 24 .249 .310 .471 111 410 56 102 20 1 23 70 31 98 3 1 98 Fr Fr
POOR
Darnell McDonald lf 30 .267 .323 .415 122 465 61 124 26 2 13 56 37 104 19 5 89 Av Av
Jeff Keppinger 2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2 88 Av Av
Chris Dickerson* cf 27 .235 .317 .413 140 494 70 116 22 6 18 60 56 171 25 7 87 Av Av
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2 90 Av Av
Adam Rosales 1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3 83 Av Av
Chris Heisey rf 24 .245 .299 .373 149 579 73 142 28 2 14 59 38 101 24 4 73 Av Av
Norris Hopper lf 30 .290 .333 .333 69 207 27 60 7 1 0 9 13 21 7 3 74 Vg Vg
Todd Frazier ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8 78 Av
Sean Henry lf 23 .250 .302 .385 135 520 64 130 22 3 14 61 35 96 17 11 76 Av Av
Drew Anderson* 2b 26 .239 .282 .389 158 581 71 139 30 6 15 69 33 137 8 5 71 Av
Juan Francisco# 3b 22 .238 .259 .419 144 589 56 140 24 1 27 87 16 163 5 5 71 Av
Drew Stubbs cf 24 .228 .292 .353 141 549 67 125 26 2 13 49 48 151 24 13 66 Vg Vg
Luis Bolivar# 2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4 64 Av Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
VERY GOOD
Jay Bruce* rf 22 .276 .328 .522 158 613 94 169 32 4 37 98 48 163 10 8 115 Vg
AVERAGE
Laynce Nix* rf 28 .259 .311 .492 111 378 49 98 18 2 22 61 25 103 4 1 103 Pr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FAIR
Darnell McDonald lf 30 .267 .323 .415 122 465 61 124 26 2 13 56 37 104 19 5 89 Fr
Chris Dickerson* cf 27 .235 .317 .413 140 494 70 116 22 6 18 60 56 171 25 7 87 Fr
Jerry Hairston Jr. ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2 90 Fr
POOR
Chris Heisey rf 24 .245 .299 .373 149 579 73 142 28 2 14 59 38 101 24 4 73 Av
Norris Hopper lf 30 .290 .333 .333 69 207 27 60 7 1 0 9 13 21 7 3 74 Av
Willy Taveras cf 27 .272 .318 .331 125 475 70 129 16 3 2 29 32 73 48 10 71 Av
Sean Henry lf 23 .250 .302 .385 135 520 64 130 22 3 14 61 35 96 17 11 76 Pr
Drew Stubbs cf 24 .228 .292 .353 141 549 67 125 26 2 13 49 48 151 24 13 66 Vg
* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter
—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
TOP THIRD
Edinson Volquez 25 3.97 12 11 32 32 181.1 166 80 19 85 180 117
MIDDLE THIRD
Aaron Harang 31 4.46 11 12 32 31 204.0 212 101 32 51 184 104
Bronson Arroyo 32 4.62 11 14 33 33 202.2 215 104 30 64 161 101
Johnny Cueto 23 4.78 9 13 30 30 169.1 176 90 28 55 151 97
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Ben Jukich* 26 5.11 6 10 26 26 144.1 163 82 17 56 79 91
Micah Owings 26 5.12 6 9 26 23 133.2 142 76 19 51 106 90
BOTTOM THIRD
Ramon A. Ramirez 26 5.36 5 10 35 22 139.1 144 83 27 64 116 86
Jordan Smith 23 5.58 6 11 23 23 119.1 144 74 19 34 56 83
Matthew Maloney* 25 5.77 7 13 26 26 146.2 163 94 28 63 107 81
Homer Bailey 23 5.83 5 12 25 25 132.2 150 86 22 68 93 80
Sam Lecure 25 6.12 5 11 25 25 132.1 158 90 25 57 80 76
Adam Pettyjohn* 32 6.27 5 14 28 23 145.0 181 101 32 43 75 74
Daryl Thompson 23 6.51 4 12 24 24 123.0 150 89 32 39 74 71
James Avery 25 7.11 4 13 25 25 130.1 169 103 32 55 63 65
—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
TOP THIRD
Arthur Rhodes* 39 3.46 4 2 57 0 39.0 35 15 1 21 42 134
Francisco Cordero 34 3.48 6 3 69 0 67.1 58 26 6 30 79 134
MIDDLE THIRD
David Weathers 39 4.14 5 4 67 0 67.1 69 31 7 29 45 111
Bill Bray* 26 4.18 3 3 61 0 56.0 56 26 7 25 58 110
Robert Manuel 25 4.23 4 4 40 5 83.0 88 39 9 20 57 109
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Jared Burton 28 4.28 4 4 54 0 61.0 60 29 7 29 52 107
Danny Herrera* 24 4.34 4 5 43 2 64.1 67 31 7 21 47 105
Kent Mercker* 41 4.45 1 1 38 0 30.1 32 15 4 12 19 104
Josh Roenicke 26 4.63 3 4 57 0 56.1 57 29 7 29 49 99
Mike Lincoln 34 4.68 3 4 59 0 65.1 66 34 10 23 55 99
Carlos Fisher 26 4.70 5 6 52 0 69.0 72 36 7 32 51 99
Nick Masset 27 4.76 2 3 33 7 73.2 83 39 8 29 50 97
Aaron Fultz* 35 4.83 2 2 34 0 31.2 34 17 4 15 26 96
Matt Belisle 29 4.87 5 7 33 13 101.2 117 55 13 24 64 96
BOTTOM THIRD
Jon Adkins 31 5.25 2 4 57 0 61.2 72 36 9 19 32 88
Pedro Viola* 26 5.33 3 6 49 4 77.2 84 46 12 35 54 88
Ron Flores* 29 5.40 3 6 55 0 56.2 62 34 8 31 41 85
Justin Mallett 27 6.09 3 6 32 11 85.2 100 58 16 42 53 76
Jeff Kennard 27 6.48 2 7 45 0 66.2 81 48 12 35 39 72
* - Throws Left
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Joey Votto
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection
.280 .353 .490 158 567 71 159 34 2 27 92 63 124 12 7 115
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Adrian Gonzalez, Adam LaRoche, Chris Chambliss
ODDIBE
Offense %
Top Quintile 22
2nd Quintile 23
Mid Quintile 15
4th Quintile 18
Low Quintile 22
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
160+ 6 .400+ 6 10+ 0 200+ 1
140+ 19 .375+ 22 5+ 4 150+ 85
130+ 32 .350+ 57
120+ 43 .325+ 86 2B %
110+ 59 .300+ 98 45+ 16
100+ 72 30+ 71
90+ 83
80+ 91
60+ 96
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
.350+ 0 .550+ 16 50+ 4 70+ 0
.325+ 4 .500+ 40 40+ 12 50+ 0
.300+ 22 .450+ 72 30+ 38 30+ 1
.275+ 59 .400+ 94 20+ 80 10+ 71
.250+ 90 .350+ 99 10+ 98
(Based on Projected PA)
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Jay Bruce
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection
.276 .328 .522 158 613 94 169 32 4 37 98 46 163 10 8 115
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Gus Bell, Harold Baines, Shawn Green
ODDIBE
Offense %
Top Quintile 29
2nd Quintile 21
Mid Quintile 12
4th Quintile 12
Low Quintile 26
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
160+ 7 .400+ 0 10+ 1 200+ 2
140+ 20 .375+ 4 5+ 29 150+ 91
130+ 34 .350+ 22
120+ 44 .325+ 57 2B %
110+ 59 .300+ 88 45+ 8
100+ 71 30+ 61
90+ 82
80+ 90
60+ 95
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
.350+ 0 .550+ 33 50+ 16 70+ 0
.325+ 3 .500+ 59 40+ 38 50+ 0
.300+ 16 .450+ 85 30+ 70 30+ 1
.275+ 52 .400+ 97 20+ 95 10+ 48
.250+ 87 .350+ 100 10+ 100
(Based on Projected PA)
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Aaron Harang
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.46 11 12 32 31 204.0 212 101 32 51 184 104
Top Near-Age Comps: Juan Marichal, Larry Jansen, Marty Pattin
ODDIBE
ERA %
Top 1/3 17
Mid 1/3 59
Bot 1/3 24
ERA+ % BB %
>150 3 >34 2
>140 6 >45 28
>130 12 >57 76
>120 22 >68 96
>110 40 >79 100
>100 64 >91 100
>90 85
>80 95 HR %
>70 99 >16 3
>23 19
K/9 % >29 46
>204 20 >36 73
>181 52
>159 82
>136 98
(Based on Projected IP)
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Edinson Volquez
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 3.97 12 11 32 32 181.1 166 80 19 85 180 117
Top Near-Age Comps: Kerry Wood, Jim Maloney, Jose DeLeon
ODDIBE
ERA %
Top 1/3 34
Mid 1/3 61
Bot 1/3 5
ERA+ % BB %
>150 6 >30 0
>140 12 >40 0
>130 27 >50 0
>120 47 >60 2
>110 71 >70 12
>100 89 >81 40
>90 99
>80 100 HR %
>70 100 >14 25
>20 65
K/9 % >26 89
>181 45 >32 98
>161 78
>141 96
>121 100
(Based on Projected IP)
——————————————————————-
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
OPS+ 140+
Bruce 20
Votto 19
Encarnacion 18
OBP .400+
Votto 6
Encarnacion 6
Keppinger 2
SLG .550+
Bruce 33
Votto 16
Encarnacion 13
BA .325+
Hopper 15
Keppinger 8
Votto 4
2B 45+
Votto 16
Anderson 16
Bruce 9
3B 10+
Anderson 16
Dickerson 12
Phillips 7
HR 30+
Bruce 70
Votto 38
Francisco 36
SB 50+
Taveras 43
Phillips 2
Dickerson 1
ERA+ 140+ (Starters)
Volquez 12
Harang 6
Arroyo 3
ERA+ 140+ (Relievers)
Cordero 42
Mercker 17
Bray 16
K/9 9+ (Starters)
Volquez 45
Harang 20
Cueto 15
K/9 9+ (Relievers)
Cordero 84
Bray 52
Roenicke 18
BB/9 1.5- (Starters)
Harang 2
Pettyjohn 1
BB/9 1.5- (Relievers)
Manuel 14
Belisle 11
Adkins 2
HR/9 0.7- (Starters)
Volquez 25
Jukich 19
Arroyo 6
HR/9 0.7- (Relievers)
Cordero 54
Herrera 40
Burton 39
All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Walt Davis Posted: February 04, 2009 at 09:05 AM (#3067205)especially Jay Bruce who ZiPS absolutely loves.
ZiPS apparently has a lower love threshhold than I do ... or it tosses it around somewhat indiscriminately. Wait, I do that too.
Anyway, not that there's anything wrong with a 115 OPS+ at age 22 but I was expecting LOVE.
And did Aaron Harang run over ZiPS's dog or something? (I know, it's the HR rate)
Kerry Wood, Jim Maloney, Jose DeLeon
So you're saying his arm is about to fall off. :-)
I agree with Walt, was expecting more LOVE from Bruce in terms of OPS+, but looking more closely I guess that 37 HR is pretty damn impressive. Not many players hit more than that last year and I suspect there aren't that many that ZiPS is predicting to do so this year. Top 5 or so in HRs at age 22 would be some LOVE.
It was reported he'd been traded for Jermaine Dye, but it wasn't so!
Put a good bat, bad D OF on this team, and they have a shot.
I hope to go to a game at GABP this summer -- we have a family reunion in the area and I'm going to hook up with one of my cousins. I want to do it because then I can be one of a select few to have gone to a game at Crosley Field and GABP but not Riverfront.
That makes sense too.
Is the standard for being fair just really low? I thought Encarnacion was pretty awful at third.
Yep. For the few remaining people such as myself who root for the Reds, it has been frustrating. I suggested that the Reds take a shot at Furcal. I have also suggested that they try for Hudson with Phillips going to SS. OCabrera as noted would be reasonable as well. Add Cabrera and Abreu, use Dickerson or Taveras as the 4th OF, and maybe they can get into the scrum.
As it is now, their goal appears to be to get through the schedule with a low payroll.
I disagree:
C - Average
1b- Average
2b- Average
3b- Very Good
ss- Average
of- Very Good
of- Average
of- Fair
Scarily average maybe?
of- Average
of- Fair
The player who will be starting at CF is in the "Poor" quintile.
Also, I believe these quintiles are positional averages. An exactly average starter will give up some ABs to a backup who is worse. The aggregate will be below average performance from that position.
C Hernandez
1b Votto
2b Keppinger
SS Phillips
3b Edwin
RF Bruce
CF Dicerkson vs R, Taveras vs L
LF ?? (go sign Dunn/Manny, but seriously: Nix/Ghomes)
Too bad Keppinger and Harriston will be playing 150+ games at SS, Taveras will be getting 550-600 PA in CF (should be around 200 tops), and if Edwin starts off the year in a slump, look for Kepp to move there and Edwin to be bench.
It's frustrating as a Reds fan, to see obvious holes on the team (corner OF preferably RH, a SS with average defense, and some sort of CF), and see them bring in people like Taveras, Ghomes, Rhodes, etc. I would have been so happy if the Reds brought in Burrell to play LF, OCabrera to play SS (or Hudson to play 2b, phillips move to SS), and Taveras to be no where near cincinnati.
I think it looks more like
VG - RF, 3b
A - C, 1b, 2b, LF (Gomes/Nix)
F - SS (Gonzalez, right? Maybe Keppinger)
P - CF
The road scoring was around 4.05 r/g last year (the Nats were last at 4.01 r/g). That should go up despite the lost of Dunn's 450 PAs, because Patterson and Bako were so terrible. Yeah, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it'll be fringe average.
Doesn't that happen on every team? I don't see how this affects the Reds more than the Rockies or Astros or Brewers for example.
The player who will be starting at CF is in the "Poor" quintile
I'm busted. I was fudging a bit by posting that way. My general point stands, though. This still projects as a very average lineup.
The big problem that I see is that Votto is the only guy that gets on base. There might be a lot of solo homeruns this year in Cincinnati.
Exactly. And I have a feeling that Baker will bat Taveras, Phillips 1-2 in front of Votto. Votto could hit 3rd with a .295/.390/.530, hit 32 HR, and have only 58 RBI. That will only give ammunition for Marty and Jeff to bash Votto and praise Taveras.
I can't wait till to root for the 2009 cincinnati reds.
I don't agree. The only way to tell if it projects as a very average lineup, is to compare it to how the other 15 National League teams project. I didn't run through all of them, but I ran through most, and the Reds come out near the bottom.
The average team projects, on average, as better than average. That's the first and probably last time I'm ever using the word average three times in a 10 word sentence...
Yes, it affects everyone.
I'm saying that more than half the teams are going to project to be above average if you just look at their starters in relation to the league production at a position.
For example: out of the 24 teams with finished projections only two (the Marlins & Phillies) don't have a catcher on their roster who projects to be at least in the average quintile.
Yeah, well, that's your prototypical Dusty Baker offense. Unclog the bases with home runs, but don't risk clogging them with walks in the first place.
Either way, if the Reds spend most of the season with those two guys as their top OBP guys, they're in serious trouble offensively.
Encarnacion was right on the border of poor/fair, range-wise. A lot of his badness is errors, which I separate from range for DMB purposes.
Then I guess I stand corrected.
You're from the Kentucky side I'm guessing. :-)
Thanks, Dan. Wasn't aware of the errors thing.
And then there's all the players who are forecast as above-average at some position like center field or shortstop, but not as good at the position they will actually be playing.
You're from the Kentucky side I'm guessing. :-)
Boy, I better be more careful about what I type. For the record, we have Indiana and Ohio roots but no KY.
Yes. He was better in 2008, but his 2007 home run rate in the minors was a lot higher. 19 in 105 innings in the Florida State League was absolutely horrific - he actually allowed a quarter of the team's home runs in only 9% of the innings!
That's the plan. If he's healthy, he's probably going to be OK there. If he doesn't stay healthy...maybe Valaika will be ready to fill, although I wouldn't hold my breath.
I wouldn't try, at this stage, to move Phillips back to SS; he has never played there regularly since his minor league days seven years ago, and I don't think I'd want to mess one of my probable top hitters.
Yeah, but it wasn't because he was a bad pitcher. He's got great control and can miss some bats. It was just a case of random HR/FB% variation IMO.
Just like Aaron Harang. If he strikes out 184 in 204 innings I have a hard time seeing him give up that many homers.
Well, he K'd 216 in 234 and gave up 28; and he K'd 218 in 232 and gave up 28; and he K'd 153 in 184 and gave up 35. I don't see why 32 in 204 IP with 184 K isn't a perfectly reasonable estimate. 35 in 184 was Miltonesque.
Yep, it wasn't Harangesque. All of those peripherals are in line with earlier in his career when he was posting 3.7 ERAs with a worse defense--except for the home run rate. I'll put my money on last year's HR/FB% being a fluke. I expect another 4.00 ERA or lower from Harang in 2009.
I also think this is the year that Weathers collapses. His "fastball" is maybe 88 mph and he LIVES by throwing his slider to clip the outsider corner. And if he goes it's a ripple effect across the bullpen because already one can see that Dusty loves the guy.
I realize Keppinger has nothing to do with Taveras, but things get out of context in a hurry around here sometimes. Plus, Keppinger's ZIPS in 2009 sure looks a lot different from his 2008. One year changed it THAT much? Funny what a .657 OPS season spread out over 459 AB's will do to a ZIPS projection on a player that had been passed around by several organizations before last year ever transpired.
He was a utility player a year ago as well. His ZIPS look Taveras-like now too, or close enough to argue it. Plus, I doubt his defense is as good at ss-2b as Taveras' is in CF, although it might be ok at 3B. Taveras may blow, and maybe Cincy would have been better off playing Bruce in CF, but at some point you have to catch the freaking ball. Cincy was 29th in DER last season, so it's not just the park. HR's are going to happen in that park. That's just the way it is. It might help if the runners on when it happens are cut down on a little...To me Taveras isn't the problem as much as scoring runs from positions on the diamond where that needs to happen. It would be great for the Reds if they had someone better than Taveras in CF, but there are only so many Beltran's around. What the Reds really need is a LF who can mash...
You're overlooking the injury issue. There's always the possibility that it's a coincidence, but it does seem odd that the second the league figured him out was exactly when he returned from a broken kneecap in only a month.
It's also possible that Keppinger has always been exactly the player he was last year, except for one 145 PA stretch in '07.
Keppinger, during that stretch (BA/OBP/SLG): .386/.447/.591
Keppinger '07, except that stretch: .272/.344/.351
Keppinger's entire career, except that stretch: .270/.315/.356
Keppinger '08: .266/.310/.346
The only stat that stands out is his OBP in '07.
Playing with the numbers, it only takes turning 3 doubles into outs to make his "rest of career" line .266/.311/.347.
I'm saying that the second half of '08 might not be indicative of Keppinger's abilities for a specific reason - he was returning from a broken kneecap and very quickly.
I can't see many reasons for unilaterally taking out a player's best stretch unless they were cheating somehow.
Overall, Keppinger's major and minor translation lines combined:
2004: 298/350/374
2005: 307/347/414
2006: 294/347/362
2007: 317/375/432
2008: 274/319/359
Many a Cinci fan was pretty excited about Keppinger after '07; as noted above, there was talk of shopping BP on these very pages. When I looked at the time, I saw a dime-a-dozen player with an incredible hot streak to pump up his numbers. When last year was such a disaster, I actually looked at the numbers and saw what I posted above.
Kepp, like every player, is what his entire career says he is; that 145 PA is certainly part of it. It's just so far out of whack, though, that it makes me wonder if it was simply a hot streak.
As a rebuttal (and a Cinci fan), I offer just 2 words (and links): Brandon Larson.
And his .500 OPS stretch wasn't out of whack?
As a rebuttal (and a Cinci fan), I offer just 2 words (and links): Brandon Larson.
I'm not sure what that proves. Larson's two half-seasons in 2002 and 2003 in the minors turned out to be rather fluky and he hit on the low-end in a short-time. It's not like major league hitters never return to sucking (I have Larson's 2001 as 226/259/382 and his 2006 (only season he got much playing time again) as 240/292/403. Not to mention that, he injured his hand, his wrist, his elbow, and his toe during that time.
Hot streaks should effect how you'll project a player too. Yes, Kep looked much more promising last year, but a broken knee cap will do that to you. The suggestion last year was to trade Phillips for something valuable (since we recognized that he's valuable) and play Kep at 2B. That still looks like a decent idea. (Or maybe slide Phillips over to SS and trade Sea Bass.) As you pointed out, this team needs a corner outfielder like nothing else, and Phillips could probably bring one of those. (Of course, as I guess you meant, so could shipping a few bucks Adam Dunn's way.) If only Dorn could take some more walks...
I should have made my point clear: I don't buy Kepp's translated lines as anything more than those of other AAAA players.
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