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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

2009 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

While Walt Jocketty made a complete botch of the outfield situation, the Reds aren’t really as bad as some people are making the team out to play.  Yes, the offense should be mediocre, but the Reds are at the point at which the pitching is a solid, not spectacular, plus, and there are still a few good players, especially Jay Bruce who ZiPS absolutely loves.

And make no mistake about it, it was quite a botching.  The team replaced Dunn by signing Taveras and allegedly having Hopper split time with Dickerson in left.  Yes, Jay Bruce is a better rightfielder than a centerfielder, but so’s everyone else and he played quite well in the majors defensively in center.  Bruce in center and a couple of the random below-average corner outfielders they have hanging around is a much better outfield than any configuration that has Taveras starting and Hopper getting way too many, courtesy of the Dust.

Jocketty (and the Reds fanbase) may prefer the Reds to be a team of slapping swifties, but from Publius Quinctilius Varus to George W. Bush, we have ample evidence that making decisions based on the conditions you want rather than the conditions you have doesn’t usually turn out that well.  The Reds play in an environment in which you need a lot of runs to win and having 2/3 of an outfield that looks like a 1920s Braves outfield doesn’t strike me as a great idea.

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CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Ramon Hernandez       c   33 .263 .326 .418 125 433 49 114 23 1 14 71 35 70 1 1   91   Av

FAIR
Javier Valentin#      c   33 .261 .322 .406 70 138 13 36 8 0 4 20 13 22 0 0   87   Fr
Ryan Hanigan         c   28 .260 .338 .338 97 308 36 80 12 0 4 31 32 48 1 1   76   Av

POOR
Wilkin Castillo#      c   25 .254 .287 .346 129 456 45 116 22 1 6 43 18 63 9 7   63   Vg
Craig Tatum         c   26 .225 .266 .356 103 365 32 82 18 0 10 47 20 87 1 2   59   Fr
Chris Kroski*        c   27 .209 .258 .330 36 115   9 24 5 0 3 10   6 27 0 0   51   Av
Devin Mesoraco       c   21 .219 .251 .330 85 324 21 71 9 0 9 36 13 86 2 4   49   Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
Joey Votto*          1b 25 .280 .353 .490 158 567 71 159 34 2 27 92 63 124 12 7 115 Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Kevin Barker*        1b 33 .249 .328 .434 114 410 55 102 22 0 18 66 48 111 1 1   95 Av

POOR
Jeff Keppinger       2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2   88 Av
Wes Bankston         1b 25 .260 .303 .436 111 415 51 108 20 1 17 64 23 88 2 2   88 Av
Javier Valentin#      c   33 .261 .322 .406 70 138 13 36 8 0 4 20 13 22 0 0   87 Fr
Adam Rosales         1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3   83 Av
Ryan Hanigan         c   28 .260 .338 .338 97 308 36 80 12 0 4 31 32 48 1 1   76 Av
Todd Frazier         ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8   78 Av
Luis Bolivar#        2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4   64 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
Brandon Phillips       2b 28 .268 .320 .440 154 605 87 162 28 5 22 80 41 104 25 7   94 Vg
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Jeff Keppinger       2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2   88 Av
Danny Richar*        2b 26 .258 .311 .417 136 508 70 131 25 4 16 63 38 97 11 5   86 Fr
Jerry Hairston Jr.    ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2   90 Fr

POOR
Adam Rosales         1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3   83 Pr
Drew Anderson*        2b 26 .239 .282 .389 158 581 71 139 30 6 15 69 33 137 8 5   71 Fr
Paul Janish         ss 26 .228 .293 .347 131 447 50 102 21 1 10 46 35 89 5 2   65 Vg
Luis Bolivar#        2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4   64 Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Edwin Encarnacion     3b 26 .272 .354 .481 145 507 76 138 32 1 24 78 55 102 4 1 113 Fr

FAIR
Jeff Keppinger       2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2   88 Av
Wes Bankston         1b 25 .260 .303 .436 111 415 51 108 20 1 17 64 23 88 2 2   88 Pr
Jerry Hairston Jr.    ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2   90 Av

POOR
Adam Rosales         1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3   83 Pr
Todd Frazier         ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8   78 Fr
Drew Anderson*        2b 26 .239 .282 .389 158 581 71 139 30 6 15 69 33 137 8 5   71 Fr
Juan Francisco#      3b 22 .238 .259 .419 144 589 56 140 24 1 27 87 16 163 5 5   71 Fr
Paul Janish         ss 26 .228 .293 .347 131 447 50 102 21 1 10 46 35 89 5 2   65 Vg
Luis Bolivar#        2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4   64 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Jeff Keppinger       2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2   88 Pr

FAIR
Danny Richar*        2b 26 .258 .311 .417 136 508 70 131 25 4 16 63 38 97 11 5   86 Pr
Jerry Hairston Jr.    ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2   90 Fr
Sea Bass Gonzalez     ss 32 .258 .313 .407 63 221 28 57 13 1 6 27 13 42 1 1   84 Av
Adam Rosales         1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3   83 Pr
Chris Valaika         ss 23 .258 .290 .409 148 594 65 153 25 1 21 82 24 127 6 7   78 Fr
Todd Frazier         ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8   78 Fr

POOR
Paul Janish         ss 26 .228 .293 .347 131 447 50 102 21 1 10 46 35 89 5 2   65 Av
Luis Bolivar#        2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4   64 Fr

————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+  LF RF

VERY GOOD
Joey Votto*          1b 25 .280 .353 .490 158 567 71 159 34 2 27 92 63 124 12 7 115 Av Av
Jay Bruce*          rf 22 .276 .328 .522 158 613 94 169 32 4 37 98 48 163 10 8 115 Vg Vg

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Jonny Gomes         rf 28 .239 .337 .478 104 318 50 76 18 2 18 49 39 101 8 4 108 Fr Fr

FAIR
Laynce Nix*          rf 28 .259 .311 .492 111 378 49 98 18 2 22 61 25 103 4 1 103 Fr Fr
Daniel Dorn*        lf 24 .249 .310 .471 111 410 56 102 20 1 23 70 31 98 3 1   98 Fr Fr

POOR
Darnell McDonald       lf 30 .267 .323 .415 122 465 61 124 26 2 13 56 37 104 19 5   89 Av Av
Jeff Keppinger       2b 29 .291 .343 .384 123 461 54 134 24 2 5 44 36 26 3 2   88 Av Av
Chris Dickerson*      cf 27 .235 .317 .413 140 494 70 116 22 6 18 60 56 171 25 7   87 Av Av
Jerry Hairston Jr.    ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2   90 Av Av
Adam Rosales         1b 26 .244 .301 .414 121 442 60 108 24 3 15 53 28 96 7 3   83 Av Av
Chris Heisey         rf 24 .245 .299 .373 149 579 73 142 28 2 14 59 38 101 24 4   73 Av Av
Norris Hopper         lf 30 .290 .333 .333 69 207 27 60 7 1 0   9 13 21 7 3   74 Vg Vg
Todd Frazier         ss 23 .240 .293 .405 144 555 70 133 24 1 22 71 40 155 9 8   78 Av  
Sean Henry           lf 23 .250 .302 .385 135 520 64 130 22 3 14 61 35 96 17 11   76 Av Av
Drew Anderson*        2b 26 .239 .282 .389 158 581 71 139 30 6 15 69 33 137 8 5   71 Av  
Juan Francisco#      3b 22 .238 .259 .419 144 589 56 140 24 1 27 87 16 163 5 5   71 Av  
Drew Stubbs         cf 24 .228 .292 .353 141 549 67 125 26 2 13 49 48 151 24 13   66 Vg Vg
Luis Bolivar#        2b 28 .237 .283 .353 108 334 41 79 14 2 7 31 18 77 12 4   64 Av Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Jay Bruce*          rf 22 .276 .328 .522 158 613 94 169 32 4 37 98 48 163 10 8 115 Vg

AVERAGE
Laynce Nix*          rf 28 .259 .311 .492 111 378 49 98 18 2 22 61 25 103 4 1 103 Pr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Darnell McDonald       lf 30 .267 .323 .415 122 465 61 124 26 2 13 56 37 104 19 5   89 Fr
Chris Dickerson*      cf 27 .235 .317 .413 140 494 70 116 22 6 18 60 56 171 25 7   87 Fr
Jerry Hairston Jr.    ss 33 .272 .333 .405 57 158 25 43 10 1 3 16 12 27 5 2   90 Fr

POOR
Chris Heisey         rf 24 .245 .299 .373 149 579 73 142 28 2 14 59 38 101 24 4   73 Av
Norris Hopper         lf 30 .290 .333 .333 69 207 27 60 7 1 0   9 13 21 7 3   74 Av
Willy Taveras         cf 27 .272 .318 .331 125 475 70 129 16 3 2 29 32 73 48 10   71 Av
Sean Henry           lf 23 .250 .302 .385 135 520 64 130 22 3 14 61 35 96 17 11   76 Pr
Drew Stubbs         cf 24 .228 .292 .353 141 549 67 125 26 2 13 49 48 151 24 13   66 Vg

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

TOP THIRD
Edinson Volquez       25   3.97 12 11 32 32   181.1 166   80 19   85 180 117

MIDDLE THIRD
Aaron Harang         31   4.46 11 12 32 31   204.0 212 101 32   51 184 104
Bronson Arroyo         32   4.62 11 14 33 33   202.2 215 104 30   64 161 101
Johnny Cueto         23   4.78   9 13 30 30   169.1 176   90 28   55 151   97
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Ben Jukich*          26   5.11   6 10 26 26   144.1 163   82 17   56   79   91
Micah Owings         26   5.12   6   9 26 23   133.2 142   76 19   51 106   90

BOTTOM THIRD
Ramon A. Ramirez       26   5.36   5 10 35 22   139.1 144   83 27   64 116   86
Jordan Smith         23   5.58   6 11 23 23   119.1 144   74 19   34   56   83
Matthew Maloney*      25   5.77   7 13 26 26   146.2 163   94 28   63 107   81
Homer Bailey         23   5.83   5 12 25 25   132.2 150   86 22   68   93   80
Sam Lecure           25   6.12   5 11 25 25   132.1 158   90 25   57   80   76
Adam Pettyjohn*        32   6.27   5 14 28 23   145.0 181 101 32   43   75   74
Daryl Thompson         23   6.51   4 12 24 24   123.0 150   89 32   39   74   71
James Avery           25   7.11   4 13 25 25   130.1 169 103 32   55   63   65

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

TOP THIRD
Arthur Rhodes*        39   3.46   4   2 57   0   39.0   35   15   1   21   42 134
Francisco Cordero       34   3.48   6   3 69   0   67.1   58   26   6   30   79 134

MIDDLE THIRD
David Weathers         39   4.14   5   4 67   0   67.1   69   31   7   29   45 111
Bill Bray*          26   4.18   3   3 61   0   56.0   56   26   7   25   58 110
Robert Manuel         25   4.23   4   4 40   5   83.0   88   39   9   20   57 109
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Jared Burton         28   4.28   4   4 54   0   61.0   60   29   7   29   52 107
Danny Herrera*        24   4.34   4   5 43   2   64.1   67   31   7   21   47 105
Kent Mercker*        41   4.45   1   1 38   0   30.1   32   15   4   12   19 104
Josh Roenicke         26   4.63   3   4 57   0   56.1   57   29   7   29   49   99
Mike Lincoln         34   4.68   3   4 59   0   65.1   66   34 10   23   55   99
Carlos Fisher         26   4.70   5   6 52   0   69.0   72   36   7   32   51   99
Nick Masset           27   4.76   2   3 33   7   73.2   83   39   8   29   50   97
Aaron Fultz*          35   4.83   2   2 34   0   31.2   34   17   4   15   26   96
Matt Belisle         29   4.87   5   7 33 13   101.2 117   55 13   24   64   96

BOTTOM THIRD
Jon Adkins           31   5.25   2   4 57   0   61.2   72   36   9   19   32   88
Pedro Viola*          26   5.33   3   6 49   4   77.2   84   46 12   35   54   88
Ron Flores*          29   5.40   3   6 55   0   56.2   62   34   8   31   41   85
Justin Mallett         27   6.09   3   6 32 11   85.2 100   58 16   42   53   76
Jeff Kennard         27   6.48   2   7 45   0   66.2   81   48 12   35   39   72

* - Throws Left

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Joey Votto
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection    
.280 .353 .490 158 567 71 159 34 2 27 92 63 124 12 7 115  
 

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Adrian Gonzalez, Adam LaRoche, Chris Chambliss

ODDIBE

Offense     %
Top Quintile   22
2nd Quintile   23
Mid Quintile   15
4th Quintile   18
Low Quintile   22

OPS+        %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
160+        6     .400+  6     10+    0     200+  1
140+        19     .375+  22     5+    4     150+  85
130+        32     .350+  57
120+        43     .325+  86     2B     %
110+        59     .300+  98     45+    16
100+        72               30+    71
90+        83
80+        91
60+        96

BA         %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
.350+      0     .550+  16     50+    4     70+    0
.325+      4     .500+  40     40+    12     50+    0
.300+      22     .450+  72     30+    38     30+    1
.275+      59     .400+  94     20+    80     10+    71
.250+      90     .350+  99     10+    98

(Based on Projected PA)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Jay Bruce
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection    
.276 .328 .522 158 613 94 169 32 4 37 98 46 163 10 8 115


Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Gus Bell, Harold Baines, Shawn Green

ODDIBE

Offense     %
Top Quintile   29
2nd Quintile   21
Mid Quintile   12
4th Quintile   12
Low Quintile   26

OPS+        %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
160+        7     .400+  0     10+    1     200+  2
140+        20     .375+  4     5+    29     150+  91
130+        34     .350+  22
120+        44     .325+  57     2B     %
110+        59     .300+  88     45+    8
100+        71               30+    61
90+        82
80+        90
60+        95

BA         %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
.350+      0     .550+  33     50+    16     70+    0
.325+      3     .500+  59     40+    38     50+    0
.300+      16     .450+  85     30+    70     30+    1
.275+      52     .400+  97     20+    95     10+    48
.250+      87     .350+  100   10+    100

(Based on Projected PA)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Aaron Harang
              ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       4.46 11 12 32 31 204.0 212 101 32   51 184   104

Top Near-Age Comps:  Juan Marichal, Larry Jansen, Marty Pattin

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 17
Mid 1/3 59
Bot 1/3 24

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   3     >34   2
>140   6     >45   28
>130   12     >57   76
>120   22     >68   96
>110   40     >79   100
>100   64     >91   100
>90   85
>80   95     HR     %
>70   99     >16   3
          >23   19
K/9   %    >29   46
>204   20     >36   73
>181   52
>159   82
>136   98

(Based on Projected IP)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Edinson Volquez
              ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       3.97 12 11 32 32 181.1 166   80 19   85 180   117

Top Near-Age Comps:  Kerry Wood, Jim Maloney, Jose DeLeon

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 34
Mid 1/3 61
Bot 1/3 5

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   6     >30   0
>140   12     >40   0
>130   27     >50   0
>120   47     >60   2
>110   71     >70   12
>100   89     >81   40
>90   99
>80   100   HR     %
>70   100   >14   25
          >20   65
K/9   %    >26   89
>181   45     >32   98
>161   78
>141   96
>121   100

(Based on Projected IP)
——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ 140+

Bruce     20
Votto     19
Encarnacion 18

OBP .400+

Votto     6
Encarnacion 6
Keppinger   2

SLG .550+

Bruce     33
Votto     16
Encarnacion 13

BA .325+

Hopper     15
Keppinger   8
Votto     4

2B 45+

Votto     16
Anderson   16
Bruce     9

3B 10+

Anderson   16
Dickerson   12
Phillips   7

HR 30+

Bruce     70
Votto     38
Francisco   36

SB 50+

Taveras   43
Phillips   2
Dickerson   1

ERA+ 140+ (Starters)

Volquez   12
Harang     6
Arroyo     3

ERA+ 140+ (Relievers)

Cordero   42
Mercker   17
Bray     16

K/9 9+ (Starters)

Volquez   45
Harang     20
Cueto     15

K/9 9+ (Relievers)
Cordero   84
Bray     52
Roenicke   18

BB/9 1.5- (Starters)

Harang     2
Pettyjohn   1

BB/9 1.5- (Relievers)

Manuel     14
Belisle   11
Adkins     2

HR/9 0.7- (Starters)

Volquez   25
Jukich     19
Arroyo     6

HR/9 0.7- (Relievers)

Cordero   54
Herrera   40
Burton     39

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. 

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

 

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Dan Szymborski Posted: February 04, 2009 at 08:11 AM | 64 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Walt Davis Posted: February 04, 2009 at 09:05 AM (#3067205)
Wow, the Reds found a starting CF worse than Norris Hopper.

especially Jay Bruce who ZiPS absolutely loves.

ZiPS apparently has a lower love threshhold than I do ... or it tosses it around somewhat indiscriminately. Wait, I do that too.

Anyway, not that there's anything wrong with a 115 OPS+ at age 22 but I was expecting LOVE.

And did Aaron Harang run over ZiPS's dog or something? (I know, it's the HR rate)

Kerry Wood, Jim Maloney, Jose DeLeon

So you're saying his arm is about to fall off. :-)
   2. rawagman Posted: February 04, 2009 at 01:32 PM (#3067217)
No Yonder Alonso?
   3. philly Posted: February 04, 2009 at 02:06 PM (#3067222)
Javier Valentin signed a minor league deal with Washington.

I agree with Walt, was expecting more LOVE from Bruce in terms of OPS+, but looking more closely I guess that 37 HR is pretty damn impressive. Not many players hit more than that last year and I suspect there aren't that many that ZiPS is predicting to do so this year. Top 5 or so in HRs at age 22 would be some LOVE.
   4. zonk Posted: February 04, 2009 at 02:32 PM (#3067233)
Didn't the Reds ship Homer Bailey out of town in a challenge trade with someone - or am I just having visions of the future?
   5. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: February 04, 2009 at 02:39 PM (#3067237)
Didn't the Reds ship Homer Bailey out of town in a challenge trade with someone - or am I just having visions of the future?

It was reported he'd been traded for Jermaine Dye, but it wasn't so!
   6. MikeinMI Posted: February 04, 2009 at 02:40 PM (#3067238)
How will Owings hit?
   7. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: February 04, 2009 at 02:42 PM (#3067241)
I'll take the over on Chris Dickerson. He can really hit the righties now, so, if the Dustbag limits his exposure to mean old lefties, he'll ops+ over 100. Oh, and, he has spent most of his career in centerfield, so, there's reason 1,009,206 that it was a waste for the Reds to sign Taveras
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 04, 2009 at 03:03 PM (#3067251)
You know, if there ever was a team who's needs fit the market, and did nothing to exploit it, this is it.

Put a good bat, bad D OF on this team, and they have a shot.
   9. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 04, 2009 at 03:13 PM (#3067266)
Re 9: Gomes? Oh, _good_ bat. Well, yeah.
   10. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 04, 2009 at 03:25 PM (#3067280)
Yeah, Adam Dunn fits like a glove. :) The RH bat of Ramirez would look extra tasty, wouldn't it? Ramirez would make them a real contender in their division, dontcha think?

I hope to go to a game at GABP this summer -- we have a family reunion in the area and I'm going to hook up with one of my cousins. I want to do it because then I can be one of a select few to have gone to a game at Crosley Field and GABP but not Riverfront.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 04, 2009 at 03:29 PM (#3067288)
I believe Belisle is with Colorado now.
   12. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 04, 2009 at 03:29 PM (#3067290)
I'd like to see them add a good-fielding SS (eg, Cabrera) as well as the an offensive corner OF with bad defense. Jerry Hairston is a really bad Plan A for SS.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 04, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3067298)
I'd like to see them add a good-fielding SS (eg, Cabrera) as well as the an offensive corner OF with bad defense. Jerry Hairston is a really bad Plan A for SS.

That makes sense too.
   14. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: February 04, 2009 at 03:47 PM (#3067305)
Wow, 37 HR for Bruuuuuuce? Damn!
   15. Vegas Watch Posted: February 04, 2009 at 04:18 PM (#3067333)
Edwin Encarnacion RNG: Fr

Is the standard for being fair just really low? I thought Encarnacion was pretty awful at third.
   16. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 04, 2009 at 04:45 PM (#3067359)
Depending on exactly what defensive metrics Dan is using (I think that he's said in the past that he uses a composite), its possible that Keppinger historically bad defense at SS might be making Encarnacion look a bit better. Still, no matter what the methodology, setting up five discrete tiers is inexact science at best (he only uses it because that's how Tippett set up DMB, which was the original motivation for doing these projections...). I'm willing to be that Encarnacion is closer to the "Poor" side of "Fair" than the "Average" side of "Fair."
   17. nathanj42 Posted: February 04, 2009 at 04:53 PM (#3067369)
That line up is scary bad. Should have an above average pitching staff though. And, nothing screams all-star more than a slug% heavy 94 OPS+.
   18. robinred Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:09 PM (#3067382)
You know, if there ever was a team who's needs fit the market, and did nothing to exploit it, this is it.

Put a good bat, bad D OF on this team, and they have a shot.



Yep. For the few remaining people such as myself who root for the Reds, it has been frustrating. I suggested that the Reds take a shot at Furcal. I have also suggested that they try for Hudson with Phillips going to SS. OCabrera as noted would be reasonable as well. Add Cabrera and Abreu, use Dickerson or Taveras as the 4th OF, and maybe they can get into the scrum.

As it is now, their goal appears to be to get through the schedule with a low payroll.
   19. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:10 PM (#3067385)
Taking the conservative approach, not predicting that Willy Tavares will have more steals than runs scored again.
   20. Frisco Cali Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:11 PM (#3067389)
That line up is scary bad

I disagree:

C - Average
1b- Average
2b- Average
3b- Very Good
ss- Average
of- Very Good
of- Average
of- Fair

Scarily average maybe?
   21. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:19 PM (#3067399)
Yea, the Reds look pretty average to me. 79-83 wins hooray!
   22. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3067404)
of- Very Good
of- Average
of- Fair


The player who will be starting at CF is in the "Poor" quintile.

Also, I believe these quintiles are positional averages. An exactly average starter will give up some ABs to a backup who is worse. The aggregate will be below average performance from that position.
   23. hokieneer Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:23 PM (#3067409)
Very bullish on Bruce hitting 30+ HR and having a good offensive year. Let's hope so.
   24. hokieneer Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:35 PM (#3067425)
Put a good RH bat in between Votto and Bruce, and the lineup transforms. The Reds roster doesn't look as bad as they're going to perform this year. The problem is, the best team will never be on the field in the right spots. Currently, isn't this the best:

C Hernandez
1b Votto
2b Keppinger
SS Phillips
3b Edwin
RF Bruce
CF Dicerkson vs R, Taveras vs L
LF ?? (go sign Dunn/Manny, but seriously: Nix/Ghomes)

Too bad Keppinger and Harriston will be playing 150+ games at SS, Taveras will be getting 550-600 PA in CF (should be around 200 tops), and if Edwin starts off the year in a slump, look for Kepp to move there and Edwin to be bench.

It's frustrating as a Reds fan, to see obvious holes on the team (corner OF preferably RH, a SS with average defense, and some sort of CF), and see them bring in people like Taveras, Ghomes, Rhodes, etc. I would have been so happy if the Reds brought in Burrell to play LF, OCabrera to play SS (or Hudson to play 2b, phillips move to SS), and Taveras to be no where near cincinnati.
   25. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:35 PM (#3067427)
Also on Bruce, a 115 OPS+ from a corner OF doesn't say "VERY GOOD" to me, but maybe that's just semantics.
   26. nathanj42 Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:36 PM (#3067429)
"Scarily average maybe?"

I think it looks more like

VG - RF, 3b
A - C, 1b, 2b, LF (Gomes/Nix)
F - SS (Gonzalez, right? Maybe Keppinger)
P - CF

The road scoring was around 4.05 r/g last year (the Nats were last at 4.01 r/g). That should go up despite the lost of Dunn's 450 PAs, because Patterson and Bako were so terrible. Yeah, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it'll be fringe average.
   27. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:41 PM (#3067439)
Laynce Nix has had a total of 91 at-bats in the last three seasons, and he sucks. I'll believe that he gets a few hundred at-bats when I see it.
   28. Frisco Cali Posted: February 04, 2009 at 05:41 PM (#3067440)
An exactly average starter will give up some ABs to a backup who is worse.

Doesn't that happen on every team? I don't see how this affects the Reds more than the Rockies or Astros or Brewers for example.

The player who will be starting at CF is in the "Poor" quintile

I'm busted. I was fudging a bit by posting that way. My general point stands, though. This still projects as a very average lineup.

The big problem that I see is that Votto is the only guy that gets on base. There might be a lot of solo homeruns this year in Cincinnati.
   29. hokieneer Posted: February 04, 2009 at 06:08 PM (#3067477)
The big problem that I see is that Votto is the only guy that gets on base. There might be a lot of solo homeruns this year in Cincinnati.


Exactly. And I have a feeling that Baker will bat Taveras, Phillips 1-2 in front of Votto. Votto could hit 3rd with a .295/.390/.530, hit 32 HR, and have only 58 RBI. That will only give ammunition for Marty and Jeff to bash Votto and praise Taveras.

I can't wait till to root for the 2009 cincinnati reds.
   30. Dizzypaco Posted: February 04, 2009 at 06:14 PM (#3067481)
This still projects as a very average lineup.

I don't agree. The only way to tell if it projects as a very average lineup, is to compare it to how the other 15 National League teams project. I didn't run through all of them, but I ran through most, and the Reds come out near the bottom.

The average team projects, on average, as better than average. That's the first and probably last time I'm ever using the word average three times in a 10 word sentence...
   31. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 04, 2009 at 06:16 PM (#3067486)
Doesn't that happen on every team? I don't see how this affects the Reds more than the Rockies or Astros or Brewers for example.

Yes, it affects everyone.

I'm saying that more than half the teams are going to project to be above average if you just look at their starters in relation to the league production at a position.

For example: out of the 24 teams with finished projections only two (the Marlins & Phillies) don't have a catcher on their roster who projects to be at least in the average quintile.
   32. FBI Regional Bureau Chief GORDON COLE!!! Posted: February 04, 2009 at 06:33 PM (#3067501)
The big problem that I see is that Votto is the only guy that gets on base. There might be a lot of solo homeruns this year in Cincinnati.

Yeah, well, that's your prototypical Dusty Baker offense. Unclog the bases with home runs, but don't risk clogging them with walks in the first place.
   33. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 04, 2009 at 06:50 PM (#3067517)
If Votto's "the only guy who gets on base", and he's projected to have a .353 OBP, you have to add Encarnacion to that group of "guys who get on base".

Either way, if the Reds spend most of the season with those two guys as their top OBP guys, they're in serious trouble offensively.
   34. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 04, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3067527)
I actually base the percentiles on how starters did offensively in the last 5 years relative to league.

Encarnacion was right on the border of poor/fair, range-wise. A lot of his badness is errors, which I separate from range for DMB purposes.
   35. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 04, 2009 at 07:05 PM (#3067534)
I actually base the percentiles on how starters did offensively in the last 5 years relative to league.

Then I guess I stand corrected.
   36. Walt Davis Posted: February 04, 2009 at 08:03 PM (#3067604)
I'm going to hook up with one of my cousins.

You're from the Kentucky side I'm guessing. :-)
   37. Vegas Watch Posted: February 04, 2009 at 08:06 PM (#3067606)
Encarnacion was right on the border of poor/fair, range-wise. A lot of his badness is errors, which I separate from range for DMB purposes.

Thanks, Dan. Wasn't aware of the errors thing.
   38. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 04, 2009 at 08:07 PM (#3067609)
For example: out of the 24 teams with finished projections only two (the Marlins & Phillies) don't have a catcher on their roster who projects to be at least in the average quintile.

And then there's all the players who are forecast as above-average at some position like center field or shortstop, but not as good at the position they will actually be playing.
   39. J. Michael Neal Posted: February 04, 2009 at 09:29 PM (#3067695)
With Bruce and Dickerson in the outfield, do the Reds need more cowbell?
   40. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 04, 2009 at 09:33 PM (#3067697)
I'm going to hook up with one of my cousins.

You're from the Kentucky side I'm guessing. :-)

Boy, I better be more careful about what I type. For the record, we have Indiana and Ohio roots but no KY.
   41. Red Menace Posted: February 04, 2009 at 09:39 PM (#3067704)
Juan Francisco looks like he's ready to be Jeff Francoeur right now.
   42. devil_fingers Posted: February 04, 2009 at 10:02 PM (#3067734)
What, no detailed breakdown of one of the great, all-or-nothing hitting, bad defensing, CoCo Crisp pounding sluggers of our time, Jonny Gomes?
   43. *BaseClogger* Posted: February 04, 2009 at 10:47 PM (#3067770)
Is that Daryl Thompson home run rate for real?
   44. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 05, 2009 at 01:01 AM (#3067879)
Is that Daryl Thompson home run rate for real?


Yes. He was better in 2008, but his 2007 home run rate in the minors was a lot higher. 19 in 105 innings in the Florida State League was absolutely horrific - he actually allowed a quarter of the team's home runs in only 9% of the innings!
   45. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 05, 2009 at 02:24 AM (#3067916)
SS (Gonzalez, right?


That's the plan. If he's healthy, he's probably going to be OK there. If he doesn't stay healthy...maybe Valaika will be ready to fill, although I wouldn't hold my breath.

I wouldn't try, at this stage, to move Phillips back to SS; he has never played there regularly since his minor league days seven years ago, and I don't think I'd want to mess one of my probable top hitters.
   46. *BaseClogger* Posted: February 05, 2009 at 06:19 AM (#3068018)
Yes. He was better in 2008, but his 2007 home run rate in the minors was a lot higher. 19 in 105 innings in the Florida State League was absolutely horrific - he actually allowed a quarter of the team's home runs in only 9% of the innings!


Yeah, but it wasn't because he was a bad pitcher. He's got great control and can miss some bats. It was just a case of random HR/FB% variation IMO.

Just like Aaron Harang. If he strikes out 184 in 204 innings I have a hard time seeing him give up that many homers.
   47. Walt Davis Posted: February 05, 2009 at 10:01 AM (#3068072)
Just like Aaron Harang. If he strikes out 184 in 204 innings I have a hard time seeing him give up that many homers.

Well, he K'd 216 in 234 and gave up 28; and he K'd 218 in 232 and gave up 28; and he K'd 153 in 184 and gave up 35. I don't see why 32 in 204 IP with 184 K isn't a perfectly reasonable estimate. 35 in 184 was Miltonesque.
   48. *BaseClogger* Posted: February 05, 2009 at 06:51 PM (#3068401)
Well, he K'd 216 in 234 and gave up 28; and he K'd 218 in 232 and gave up 28; and he K'd 153 in 184 and gave up 35. I don't see why 32 in 204 IP with 184 K isn't a perfectly reasonable estimate. 35 in 184 was Miltonesque.


Yep, it wasn't Harangesque. All of those peripherals are in line with earlier in his career when he was posting 3.7 ERAs with a worse defense--except for the home run rate. I'll put my money on last year's HR/FB% being a fluke. I expect another 4.00 ERA or lower from Harang in 2009.
   49. Damon Rutherford Posted: February 09, 2009 at 12:19 AM (#3071439)
Thank you, Szym, for these projections, even if they are depressing.
   50. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: February 09, 2009 at 02:12 AM (#3071498)
I think Walt and Co. overreacted to the horrible outfield defense witnessed the past few years resulting in this potentially odd configuration.

I also think this is the year that Weathers collapses. His "fastball" is maybe 88 mph and he LIVES by throwing his slider to clip the outsider corner. And if he goes it's a ripple effect across the bullpen because already one can see that Dusty loves the guy.
   51. thinkmaui Posted: February 09, 2009 at 10:00 AM (#3071702)
Even with the bad year last season in Colorado Willy Taveras is a .283 career hitter. I realize it's an empty .283, but you get different opinions of his defense, which is where a player like Taveras has to excel. Willy has a career OBP of .331, so ZIPS has him floundering in his age 27 season. He probably is a 4th or 5th OF/pinch runner type, but I remember last year in this space it was Keppinger who was the latest flavor of the month, with some even suggesting he should be the primary 2B over Phillips.

I realize Keppinger has nothing to do with Taveras, but things get out of context in a hurry around here sometimes. Plus, Keppinger's ZIPS in 2009 sure looks a lot different from his 2008. One year changed it THAT much? Funny what a .657 OPS season spread out over 459 AB's will do to a ZIPS projection on a player that had been passed around by several organizations before last year ever transpired.

He was a utility player a year ago as well. His ZIPS look Taveras-like now too, or close enough to argue it. Plus, I doubt his defense is as good at ss-2b as Taveras' is in CF, although it might be ok at 3B. Taveras may blow, and maybe Cincy would have been better off playing Bruce in CF, but at some point you have to catch the freaking ball. Cincy was 29th in DER last season, so it's not just the park. HR's are going to happen in that park. That's just the way it is. It might help if the runners on when it happens are cut down on a little...To me Taveras isn't the problem as much as scoring runs from positions on the diamond where that needs to happen. It would be great for the Reds if they had someone better than Taveras in CF, but there are only so many Beltran's around. What the Reds really need is a LF who can mash...
   52. Damon Rutherford Posted: February 09, 2009 at 01:18 PM (#3071720)
The Reds need a lot of things.
   53. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 09, 2009 at 02:10 PM (#3071733)
Even with the bad year last season in Colorado Willy Taveras is a .283 career hitter. I realize it's an empty .283, but you get different opinions of his defense, which is where a player like Taveras has to excel. Willy has a career OBP of .331, so ZIPS has him floundering in his age 27 season. He probably is a 4th or 5th OF/pinch runner type, but I remember last year in this space it was Keppinger who was the latest flavor of the month, with some even suggesting he should be the primary 2B over Phillips.


You're overlooking the injury issue. There's always the possibility that it's a coincidence, but it does seem odd that the second the league figured him out was exactly when he returned from a broken kneecap in only a month.
   54. thinkmaui Posted: February 09, 2009 at 09:47 PM (#3072454)
Didn't mean to downplay Keppinger's injury last season. I agree actually, although I still see Keppinger as more of a super utility type. He's a valuable bench player. More valuable than a lot of other bench players if he can pick the ball up at an up the middle spot on the infield, and 3B as well.
   55. TDF, situational idiot Posted: February 09, 2009 at 10:12 PM (#3072507)
You're overlooking the injury issue. There's always the possibility that it's a coincidence, but it does seem odd that the second the league figured him out was exactly when he returned from a broken kneecap in only a month.


It's also possible that Keppinger has always been exactly the player he was last year, except for one 145 PA stretch in '07.
   56. TDF, situational idiot Posted: February 09, 2009 at 10:45 PM (#3072557)
To clear up my previous post:

Keppinger, during that stretch (BA/OBP/SLG): .386/.447/.591

Keppinger '07, except that stretch: .272/.344/.351
Keppinger's entire career, except that stretch: .270/.315/.356
Keppinger '08: .266/.310/.346

The only stat that stands out is his OBP in '07.
   57. Dizzypaco Posted: February 09, 2009 at 10:54 PM (#3072575)
Except that Keppinger wasn't consistent in '08 - he was good at the beginning of the season, and pretty much worthless as a hitter during the second half. I don't know that you learn that much about Keppinger by lumping them together.
   58. TDF, situational idiot Posted: February 09, 2009 at 11:09 PM (#3072595)
But taken as a whole, his '08 is as close to exactly like the entire rest of his career (excepting that stretch in '07) as I'd think possible - 4 pts of BA, 5 pts of OBP, 10 pts of SLG.

Playing with the numbers, it only takes turning 3 doubles into outs to make his "rest of career" line .266/.311/.347.
   59. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 09, 2009 at 11:18 PM (#3072605)
You can hardly simply target and take out a player's best stretch or worst stretch unless you have some specific reason.

I'm saying that the second half of '08 might not be indicative of Keppinger's abilities for a specific reason - he was returning from a broken kneecap and very quickly.

I can't see many reasons for unilaterally taking out a player's best stretch unless they were cheating somehow.

Overall, Keppinger's major and minor translation lines combined:

2004: 298/350/374
2005: 307/347/414
2006: 294/347/362
2007: 317/375/432
2008: 274/319/359
   60. TDF, situational idiot Posted: February 09, 2009 at 11:34 PM (#3072626)
The only "reason" I have is that it's so far out of whack compared to the rest of his career. Hey, it's arbitrary, but it's there.

Many a Cinci fan was pretty excited about Keppinger after '07; as noted above, there was talk of shopping BP on these very pages. When I looked at the time, I saw a dime-a-dozen player with an incredible hot streak to pump up his numbers. When last year was such a disaster, I actually looked at the numbers and saw what I posted above.

Kepp, like every player, is what his entire career says he is; that 145 PA is certainly part of it. It's just so far out of whack, though, that it makes me wonder if it was simply a hot streak.

Overall, Keppinger's major and minor translation lines combined:


As a rebuttal (and a Cinci fan), I offer just 2 words (and links): Brandon Larson.
   61. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2009 at 12:07 AM (#3072665)
The only "reason" I have is that it's so far out of whack compared to the rest of his career. Hey, it's arbitrary, but it's there.


And his .500 OPS stretch wasn't out of whack?

As a rebuttal (and a Cinci fan), I offer just 2 words (and links): Brandon Larson.


I'm not sure what that proves. Larson's two half-seasons in 2002 and 2003 in the minors turned out to be rather fluky and he hit on the low-end in a short-time. It's not like major league hitters never return to sucking (I have Larson's 2001 as 226/259/382 and his 2006 (only season he got much playing time again) as 240/292/403. Not to mention that, he injured his hand, his wrist, his elbow, and his toe during that time.
   62. Ziggy Posted: February 10, 2009 at 12:18 AM (#3072671)
simply a hot streak.

Hot streaks should effect how you'll project a player too. Yes, Kep looked much more promising last year, but a broken knee cap will do that to you. The suggestion last year was to trade Phillips for something valuable (since we recognized that he's valuable) and play Kep at 2B. That still looks like a decent idea. (Or maybe slide Phillips over to SS and trade Sea Bass.) As you pointed out, this team needs a corner outfielder like nothing else, and Phillips could probably bring one of those. (Of course, as I guess you meant, so could shipping a few bucks Adam Dunn's way.) If only Dorn could take some more walks...
   63. TDF, situational idiot Posted: February 10, 2009 at 01:04 AM (#3072702)
Dan:

I should have made my point clear: I don't buy Kepp's translated lines as anything more than those of other AAAA players.

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