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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, November 28, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

The Indians are now at the crossroads.  With Sabathia gone, Hafner’s career going the wrong way this year, and Carmona being injured (hip) and going and flip-flopping his 2/1 K/BB ratio, the Indians no longer have the luxury of more or less standing pat.  At this point, the team simply doesn’t have enough “now” talent to compete in 2009 and probably not enough “later” talent to compete in 2011.  It’ll probably be another year before Matt LaPorta is ready to be a real plus in the majors and a couple more for Mills and others.  Yet the team has holes that need to be filled now if they are to compete in 2009.

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CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Victor Martinez#      c   30 .293 .366 .447 115 430 56 126 27 0 13 66 48 59 0 0 113 Av

VERY GOOD
Kelly Shoppach       c   29 .246 .322 .465 93 284 45 70 20 0 14 50 27 102 0 0 105 Av

FAIR
Chris Gimenez         c   26 .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 1 3   84 Fr
Carlos Santana#      c   23 .238 .310 .382 114 432 66 103 23 0 13 59 44 68 5 5   81 Fr

POOR
Wyatt Toregas         c   26 .236 .299 .360 94 314 31 74 15 0 8 39 25 59 1 1   73 Av
Sal Fasano           c   37 .207 .277 .300 48 150 13 31 5 0 3 16   7 42 0 0   52 Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FIRST BASEMEN/DESIGNATED HITTERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Travis Hafner*      dh   32 .261 .378 .469 105 371 58 97 21 1 18 66 65 88 0 0 122

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Victor Martinez#      c   30 .293 .366 .447 115 430 56 126 27 0 13 66 48 59 0 0 113 Fr

FAIR
Ryan Garko           1b 28 .267 .347 .419 134 468 55 125 24 1 15 68 42 90 1 0 101 Fr
Matt LaPorta         rf 24 .241 .312 .435 108 407 52 98 20 1 19 67 33 78 2 0   95 Fr

POOR
Jordan Brown*        1b 25 .268 .326 .391 120 473 57 127 26 1 10 60 37 67 6 2   88 Av
Beau Mills*          1b 22 .261 .315 .404 123 495 54 129 24 1 15 69 34 94 2 3   88 Av
Morgan Ensberg       3b 33 .218 .336 .366 98 284 42 62 12 0 10 39 49 73 1 2   86 Av
Chris Gimenez         c   26 .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 1 3   84 Fr
Michael Aubrey*      1b 27 .252 .296 .395 75 294 29 74 15 0 9 40 16 43 0 0   80 Av
Michael Brantley*      cf 22 .257 .318 .323 119 467 66 120 17 1 4 43 40 37 29 10   70 AV

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

FAIR
Asdrubal Cabrera#      2b 23 .266 .336 .391 152 542 83 144 30 1 12 70 55 94 2 6   91 Av

POOR
Jamey Carroll         2b 35 .253 .336 .314 102 293 50 74 11 2 1 27 32 54 5 4   73 Vg
Josh Barfield         2b 26 .253 .291 .355 121 431 51 109 22 2 6 48 21 81 13 5   70 Av
Andy Gonzalez         2b 27 .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 4 4   68 Fr
Josh Rodriguez       ss 24 .220 .284 .322 128 509 59 112 18 2 10 56 46 105 16 7   60 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

POOR
Beau Mills*          1b 22 .261 .315 .404 123 495 54 129 24 1 15 69 34 94 2 3   88 Fr
Morgan Ensberg       3b 33 .218 .336 .366 98 284 42 62 12 0 10 39 49 73 1 2   86 Av
Chris Gimenez         c   26 .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 1 3   84 Fr
Carlos Santana#      c   23 .238 .310 .382 114 432 66 103 23 0 13 59 44 68 5 5   81 Pr
Jamey Carroll         2b 35 .253 .336 .314 102 293 50 74 11 2 1 27 32 54 5 4   73 Av
Andy Marte           3b 25 .237 .280 .380 101 329 33 78 15 1 10 43 18 63 2 1   72 Vg
Andy Gonzalez         2b 27 .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 4 4   68 Fr

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SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
Jhonny Peralta       ss 27 .267 .333 .440 149 573 92 153 33 3 20 89 55 136 1 2 102 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Asdrubal Cabrera#      2b 23 .266 .336 .391 152 542 83 144 30 1 12 70 55 94 2 6   91 Av

POOR
Jamey Carroll         2b 35 .253 .336 .314 102 293 50 74 11 2 1 27 32 54 5 4   73 Fr
Andy Gonzalez         2b 27 .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 4 4   68 Fr
Josh Rodriguez       ss 24 .220 .284 .322 128 509 59 112 18 2 10 56 46 105 16 7   60 Fr

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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+  LF RF

AVERAGE
Shin-Soo Choo*        rf 26 .282 .364 .456 118 412 68 116 27 3 13 64 50 94 12 6 115 Fr Fr
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

FAIR
Ben Francisco         lf 27 .265 .327 .420 123 457 60 121 27 1 14 66 39 88 12 5   96 Vg Vg
Matt LaPorta         rf 24 .241 .312 .435 108 407 52 98 20 1 19 67 33 78 2 0   95 Fr Pr

POOR
Todd Linden#        lf 29 .249 .339 .392 99 273 36 68 13 1 8 37 33 79 2 1   92 Av Vg
David Dellucci*      lf 35 .252 .326 .413 93 254 36 64 13 2 8 37 23 59 1 1   94 Pr Pr
Franklin Gutierrez     rf 26 .258 .321 .400 119 380 57 98 23 2 9 51 31 86 9 4   89 Vg Ex
Chris Gimenez         c   26 .237 .318 .380 107 376 49 89 18 0 12 50 38 88 1 3   84 Fr Fr
Carlos Santana#      c   23 .238 .310 .382 114 432 66 103 23 0 13 59 44 68 5 5   81 Fr  
Jason Cooper*        lf 28 .226 .307 .370 101 332 40 75 17 2 9 43 36 85 4 2   78 Av Av
Nicholas Weglarz*      lf 21 .232 .305 .369 121 461 50 107 19 1 14 61 45 93 5 3   77 Fr Fr
Trevor Crowe#        lf 25 .242 .307 .357 110 454 69 110 24 2 8 53 40 79 24 7   75 Vg Vg
Michael Brantley*      cf 22 .257 .318 .323 119 467 66 120 17 1 4 43 40 37 29 10   70 Vg
Andy Gonzalez         2b 27 .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 4 4   68 Av Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Grady Sizemore*      cf 26 .281 .383 .515 159 637 117 179 41 6 32 122 93 139 30 7 134 Vg

AVERAGE
Ben Francisco         lf 27 .265 .327 .420 123 457 60 121 27 1 14 66 39 88 12 5   96 Pr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Franklin Gutierrez     rf 26 .258 .321 .400 119 380 57 98 23 2 9 51 31 86 9 4   89 Av

POOR
Trevor Crowe#        lf 25 .242 .307 .357 110 454 69 110 24 2 8 53 40 79 24 7   75 Av
Michael Brantley*      cf 22 .257 .318 .323 119 467 66 120 17 1 4 43 40 37 29 10   70 Fr
Andy Gonzalez         2b 27 .223 .314 .318 96 318 33 71 12 0 6 34 40 85 4 4   68 Fr

—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+

TOP THIRD
Cliff Lee*          30   3.68 14   9 30 30   198.0 204   81 18   43 142 123
Fausto Carmona         25   4.06 13   9 29 29   173.0 177   78 11   69   97 112

MIDDLE THIRD
Adam Miller           24   4.40   3   2 12   8   45.0   48   22   3   21   29 103
Jake Westbrook         31   4.42   6   6 18 18   110.0 122   54   9   37   58 103
Scott Lewis*          25   4.46   7   7 25 24   123.0 134   61 14   33   76 102
Aaron Laffey*        24   4.53 11 11 30 30   171.0 195   86 16   51   86 100
—————————————————————————————————————————————-
Anthony Reyes         27   4.79   5   5 20 16   94.0 100   50 14   31   67   95
David Huff*          24   4.84   5   6 19 18   93.0 103   50 14   24   62   94
Jeremy Sowers*        26   4.87   8 10 29 29   170.0 192   92 20   52   85   93

BOTTOM THIRD
Matt Ginter           31   5.47   5   8 23 16   97.0 119   59 13   28   48   83
Hector Rondon         21   5.49   7 11 28 28   136.0 159   83 22   49   69   83
Zach Jackson*        26   5.77   6 10 32 22   142.0 175   91 18   53   67   79
John Halama*          37   6.00   3   6 15   9   66.0   85   44 12   17   23   76
Chuck Lofgren*        23   6.39   4 10 29 21   114.0 135   81 19   74   66   71
Jeff Harris           34   6.99   2   6 19 11   76.0 100   59 20   23   34   65

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+

TOP THIRD
Rafael Perez*        27   3.30   5   2 69   0   79.0   72   29   6   28   76 137

MIDDLE THIRD
Rafael Betancourt       34   3.80   4   2 60   0   64.0   61   27   9   17   58 119
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Jensen Lewis         25   4.34   3   3 63   0   83.0   85   40 10   37   67 105

BOTTOM THIRD
Masahide Kobayashi     35   4.66   4   5 58   0   58.0   65   30   7   14   33   97
Rich Rundles*        28   4.71   3   4 60   0   63.0   67   33   5   33   40   96
Tom Mastny           28   4.71   4   4 49   1   63.0   65   33   6   33   56   96
Brendan Donnelly       37   4.71   1   1 24   0   21.0   23   11   2   8   13   96
Tony Sipp*          25   4.86   3   3 28   6   63.0   62   34 10   28   58   93
Edward Mujica         25   4.92   3   3 49   0   64.0   71   35   8   19   44   92
Joe Borowski         38   4.95   3   3 41   0   40.0   45   22   5   12   30   92
Jonathan Meloan       24   4.97   6   8 45 12   105.0 107   58 12   61   78   92
Juan Rincon           30   5.05   3   3 62   0   66.0   72   37   8   29   53   90
Jeff Stevens         25   5.12   4   6 44   0   65.0   66   37 11   32   62   89
Rick Bauer           32   5.79   1   2 43   1   56.0   62   36   8   31   40   78
Brian Slocum         28   5.91   3   5 23 10   67.0   76   44 11   37   48   77
Scott Elarton         33   6.08   3   5 21 10   71.0   82   48 14   33   39   75

* - Throws Left

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Ryan Garko
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .267 .347 .419 134 468 55 125 24 1 15 68 42 90 1 0 101

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Craig Wilson, Mike Cervenak

Offense %
STAR   7
AVG   29
REP LV 71

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   3     >10   0     >200   0
>140   2     >.375   16     >5     0     >150   1
>120   17     >.350   49
>100   53     >.325   84     2B     %
>80   88     >.300   99     >45   0
>60   100               >30   12

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   0     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   1     >.500   7     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   8     >.450   30     >30   0     >30   0
>.275   33     >.400   59     >20   24     >10   0
>.250   74     >.350   88     >10   71

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Travis Hafner
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .261 .378 .469 105 371 58 97 21 1 18 66 65 88 0 0 122

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Boog Powell, Vic Wertz

Offense %
STAR   23
AVG   51
REP LV 87

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   3     >.400   20     >10   0     >200   0
>140   15     >.375   48     >5     0     >150   0
>120   44     >.350   80
>100   80     >.325   96     2B     %
>80   98     >.300   100   >45   0
>60   100               >30   0

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   9     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   1     >.500   23     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   5     >.450   49     >30   0     >30   0
>.275   22     >.400   80     >20   26     >10   0
>.250   59     >.350   98     >10   87

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Fausto Carmona
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       4.06 13   9 29 29 173 177   78 11   69   97   112

Top Near-Age Comps:  Storm Davis, John Denny

ERA   %
Top 1/3 49
Mid 1/3 31
Bot 1/3 20

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   10

<29 0
>

140   14

<38 0
>

130   21

<48 10
>

120   32

<58 24
>

110   44

<67 46
>

100   62

<77 72
>

90   77
>80   88     HR     %
>70   95     <13 63
<19 80
K % <25 94
>173   0     <31 98
>154   0
>135   3
>115   17

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Cliff Lee
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       3.68 14   9 30 30 198 204   81 18   43 142   123

Top Near-Age Comps:  Vida Blue, Denny Neagle

ERA   %
Top 1/3 73
Mid 1/3 22
Bot 1/3 5

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   21     <33 32
>140   29     <44 59
>130   40     <55 84
>120   53     <66 96
>110   68     <77 98
>100   83     <88 98
>90   93
>80   98     HR     %
>70   100   <15 40
<22 68
K % <29 82
>198   0     <35 94
>176   3
>154   22
>132   55

——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ >140

Sizemore   39
Choo       15
Hafner     15

OBP >.400

Sizemore   32
Hafner     19
Choo       17

SLG >.550

sizemore   25
Hafner     9
Choo       6

BA >.325

Choo       8
Martinez     6
Sizemore     2

2B >45

Sizemore   29
Peralta     12
Cabrera     2

3B >10

Sizemore     6

HR >30

Sizemore   57
Peralta     11
Hafner     1

SB >50

Sizemore     7
Brantley     5
Crowe       1

SUB-REPLACEMENT

Weglarz     77
Cooper     67
Mills     62

ERA+ >140

Perez     50
Betancourt   31
Lee       29

K/9 >9

Perez     30
Stevens     26
Mastny     26

BB/9 <1.5

Lee 32
Betancourt 18
Huff 13

HR/9 <0.7

Carmona 63
Miller 56
Perez 44

SUB-REPLACEMENT

Elarton 97
Harris 96
Slocum 92

All figures in % based on projection playing time.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions


ZiPS 2009 Archive


Giants

Dodgers

Diamondbacks

Cubs

Cardinals

Brewers

Braves

Blue Jays

A’s

Astros

Angels

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2008 at 09:41 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: November 28, 2008 at 10:15 PM (#3017216)
Sizemore's second-round-pick cover should be blown in fantasy drafts, next year. Especially with Utley hurt and stealing few bags.
   2. Scott Kazmir's breaking balls Posted: November 28, 2008 at 10:44 PM (#3017226)
Is Cleveland still exploring moving Jhonny Peralta to 3rd? Read in a recent thread that they are considering moving him to the hot corner because of his perceived decrease in range.
   3. Repoz Posted: November 28, 2008 at 10:48 PM (#3017227)
Hey...you're Travis Hafner!
   4. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 28, 2008 at 10:52 PM (#3017230)
The Indians should trade Shoppach back to the Red Sox for...something.
   5. cal Posted: November 28, 2008 at 11:01 PM (#3017235)
Mike Lowell for Shoppach? Assuming thr Red Sox can get Tiex.
   6. Padraic Posted: November 28, 2008 at 11:41 PM (#3017246)
Wow, Phillies farmhand Mike Cervenak (Age 31, 13 Big League ABs) is a top comp for Garko? I don't know if that speaks ill or Garko or well of Cervenak.
   7. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 28, 2008 at 11:45 PM (#3017249)
That's an ugly collection of third basemen. I'm sad to see how Andy Marte's career has cratered.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 28, 2008 at 11:47 PM (#3017251)
Mike Lowell for Shoppach? Assuming thr Red Sox can get Tiex.

Are the Red Sox sending like $12M in that trade? Or is Cleve. now a not-for-profit entity?
   9. Elston Gunn Posted: November 29, 2008 at 01:02 AM (#3017271)
How is Cabrera's D only AV at 2b and FR at SS? I thought he was a defensive whiz.
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 29, 2008 at 02:49 AM (#3017307)
Cabrera should be AV/AV not AV/FR, but the rumors of his defensive wizardry seem to have been unfounded. Franklin Gutierrez, however, can say "Behold" all he wants.
   11. Elston Gunn Posted: November 29, 2008 at 05:14 AM (#3017341)
Dan, what are your defensive assessments based on?
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 29, 2008 at 07:03 AM (#3017353)
Modern defensive stats where possible. The less we have, the more important scouting reports are. Gutierrez has turned out, defensively, as well as advertised. Cabrera is hardly a bad defender or anything, but the evidence so far seems to indicate he's nothing special.
   13. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: November 29, 2008 at 09:32 AM (#3017373)
You have Hafner in the player spotlight, but I can't find him in the main part of team. Are other AL teams missing DH-only guys?
   14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 29, 2008 at 03:04 PM (#3017390)
If it's not too much trouble, Dan, could we get a line for JD Martin?
   15. Frisco Cali Posted: November 29, 2008 at 03:36 PM (#3017399)
I'm looking forward to the 5-lefty rotation.

As for the rumors about moving Peralta to 3rd - does it have more to do with Peralta's defensive chops at short, or with the Tribe's failure to find any other viable option at the hot corner?
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 29, 2008 at 04:17 PM (#3017412)
You have Hafner in the player spotlight, but I can't find him in the main part of team. Are other AL teams missing DH-only guys?

Oops! Hafner's the first player I've not given any defensive rating to since changing the format of the reports and I forgot about this.
   17. frenchredsox Posted: November 29, 2008 at 09:45 PM (#3017501)
Any chance for a prediction on MILB pick Greg Aquino ? Looking at the pen he definitely has a chance pitching 40+ IPs for the Indians in 09
   18. frenchredsox Posted: November 29, 2008 at 09:50 PM (#3017504)
If it's not too much trouble, Dan, could we get a line for JD Martin?


He is a minor league FA for now....same as Lara/Slocum/Bauer etc
   19. Walt Davis Posted: November 30, 2008 at 03:15 AM (#3017562)
Egads .... that's one horrible, horrible looking bullpen.

Peralta to 3B, Cabrera to SS, someone non-embarrassing at 2B must have crossed the Indians' minds. Whether you're more likely to find something non-embarrassing at 2B or 3B I haven't given any thought to. I'm too stunned that a 102 OPS+ is now in the "average" range for starting SS offense.

If there's a lesson here, it's how quickly the window of opportunity closes on teams that either won't invest or won't/can't tie up their young players to good buyout contracts (then get lucky that they develop and don't get hurt). Just a couple of seasons ago, they looked poised to go on a nice run of AL Central titles -- now it's Sizemore, an injured Carmona and Martinez and the Brady Anderson of pitchers (who hopefully isn't).

It's still a weak enough division that they could compete if things break right (the injured guys return to form, they cobble together a decent/good bullpen) but, as Dan rightly points out, there are a lot of holes to fill.
   20. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 01, 2008 at 09:47 AM (#3017835)
Are there some outliers in the projection for Hafner on the high end? His breakdowns seem about right (less than 50% that he breaks 450 slg) but his overall OPS+ is 122 when he's pegged at 44% to top 120 OPS+. He's a guy who just peaked early and is on a slow painful to watch decline. I'm hoping Ortiz doesn't follow the same path post injury.
   21. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: December 01, 2008 at 11:23 AM (#3017841)
I'm sort of surprised to see no projection for Wes Hodges. He's probably not quite ready, but arguably the best third baseman in the organization right now and tearing up the AFL.

He could very well be the Opening Day starter at third.
   22. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: December 01, 2008 at 11:26 AM (#3017843)
He is a minor league FA for now....same as Lara/Slocum/Bauer etc
WHO ARE YOU WORKING FOR?!?!?

I haven't heard much about Lara in the last six months. I suspect that bodes poorly for his career, but I hope I'm wrong.
   23. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 01, 2008 at 01:55 PM (#3017853)
Martin isn't just a minor league FA - he's a really good minor league FA. I think he ends up in the majors with somebody next year, and I wonder how he'll do.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: December 01, 2008 at 07:31 PM (#3018091)
Hmmm.... looking at Hafner's projection and reminding myself that ZiPS is not a playing time projection system, I wonder what the point of showing the distribution of counting stat projections is. For example, Hafner is given 0% chance of hitting 30+ HR which is odd given he's done it twice in his career. I'm guessing ZiPS is really saying he has (near) zero chance of hitting 30+ HR in 371 AB which seems perfectly reasonable. But of course there's a non-zero chance that Hafner gets 450-500 AB -- no, really, there is! :-) -- and some chance he'll bust over the 30 HR line. And 30 doubles.

In theory, you could display distributions of HR rates and such, but who thinks in those terms? Maybe better to project counting stats assuming 600 PAs or something? Or maybe just say "ah hell, it will probably suck, but I'm gonna say ZiPS is a playing time projection system, at least for starters."

I am fine with projecting him to zero chance at 10+ SBs in even an infinite amount of playing time. :-)
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 02, 2008 at 07:14 PM (#3018943)
In theory, you could display distributions of HR rates and such, but who thinks in those terms? Maybe better to project counting stats assuming 600 PAs or something? Or maybe just say "ah hell, it will probably suck, but I'm gonna say ZiPS is a playing time projection system, at least for starters."

Actually, what I might do is what I do with pitchers - display the odds of rates instead of round numbers, but convert the rates to what the counting stat would be. For instance, Carmona's K thresholds are K/9, 8, 7, and 6, but given as the counting stats for those rates and projected IP.

ZiPS actually isn't a horrible predictor of playing time for players that aren't going to have a dramatic role change, but I hate having to explain a billion times why such-and-such team is projected to get 10000 PA.
   26. schruender Posted: December 04, 2008 at 01:54 AM (#3020310)
25 comments and no mention of Matt LaPorta. You know the most significant thing the Indians did all season was trade C.C. Sabathia.
   27. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: December 04, 2008 at 02:14 AM (#3020327)
If LaPorta is a major factor for the 2009 Cleveland Indians, at least one of two things has happened: Either the season's in the crapper or he developed way earlier than expected. Even if the season's in the crapper, I wouldn't expect to see him before July.

Looks like Garko's going to get the first crack at first base, albeit with a short leash. If he can't hack it, it's probably safe to assume they'll move Victor Martinez to first semi-regularly and let Shoppach catch. (Personally, I think that's a terrible idea assuming Victor's healthy enough to catch, but they don't consult me.) Third choice might still be Mike Aubrey. They kept him on the 40-man and he can't play anywhere but first, so that indicates to me that he's still seen as a potential emergency option.

My gut instinct is that LaPorta enters spring training fourth on the first base depth chart and spends no less than four months in Columbus. Unless they plan to use him in the corner outfield, which, by all accounts, would be...entertaining.
   28. Ziggy Posted: December 04, 2008 at 07:53 PM (#3020867)
I think the thing to do here is trade V. Martinez. Shoppach is fine as a starting catcher, and Martinez must have some real value. His contract is for 5.7 and 7 for the next two years, and he's one of the best hitting catchers in baseball. What about Martinez for Jed Lowrie? Slide Peralta over to third, if the RSox go for it. Or trade him for pitching and sign Joe Crede.
   29. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 04, 2008 at 07:59 PM (#3020882)
That's some good catching depth. And awful third base depth. If only you could trade one area of need to fill another.
   30. Dewey, Crackpot and Soupuss Posted: December 04, 2008 at 08:21 PM (#3020918)
sign Joe Crede.

They'd better make sure that they have a decent backup. Crede's in really bad shape.
   31. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: December 04, 2008 at 08:29 PM (#3020928)
Victor originally signed as an shortstop. He hasn't played anywhere but catcher or first base in about ten years, but there's no reason to think he can't handle third base. He's certainly athletic enough - it's not like you'd be plopping a big fat slug out there.

They'd never do it, but it's certainly an outside-the-box way to use a strength to fix a weakness.

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