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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 23, 2009

2009 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers

The Tigers had a terrible start to the season, losing 10 of the first 12 games, and never recovered en route to their first last-place finish since the 43-119 in Alan Trammell’s first season as manager.

It’s not hard to ascertain exactly what went wrong for the team last year.  The offense was good, as was advertised, with Miguel Cabrera quietly delivering and overall finishing 3rd in the league in OPS+ and 4th in runs.  The pitching, unfortunately, was either injured or ineffective and only some comical ineptitude by Orioles and Rangers hurlers enabled the Tigers to avoid allowing the most runs in the league.

Will it get better?  Probably.  Verlander looked to be getting it back together after a terrible April, only to lose it again in the second-half.  Bonderman missed a lot of time in 2008 coming off a disappointing 2007, but he’s supposedly healthy and his circulation problems seem to be behind him.  Galarraga was one of the few Tiger pitchers to overachieve last year and his peripherals are generally unimpressive, but he’s serviceable.  Jackson was tantalizingly useful in 2008 but still has control issues.  It seems that the rotation has a lot of guys that walk a batter or two a game too much, so Jimmy Leyland might want to follow George Stallings’s example and have his heart checked out after the season.

The offense should be just fine again.  A lot of they key contributors are in their 30s, but most are good enough that a non-catastrophic decline won’t make them problems, with the obvious exception of Sheffield, who was already a problem anyway.  Sheffield might be done anyway - recovering from shoulder problems are hard for younger hitters, let alone a player entering his 5th decade.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
HITTERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Miguel Cabrera       3b 26 .309 .382 .559 160 605 104 187 39 2 36 135 70 113 3 2   144
Magglio Ordonez       rf 35 .313 .374 .487 145 552 80 173 34 1 20 101 53 75 2 3   125
Curtis Granderson*    cf 28 .281 .356 .499 154 595 111 167 33 14 23 74 66 139 14 3   123
Carlos Guillen#      3b 33 .291 .367 .456 125 461 73 134 29 4 13 65 55 75 10 5   116
Placido Polanco       2b 33 .314 .357 .416 134 555 87 174 30 3 7 57 31 35 5 2   104
Marcus Thames         lf 32 .249 .309 .512 91 285 45 71 13 1 20 49 24 79 1 2   112
Ryan Raburn         lf 28 .259 .328 .441 105 320 46 83 18 2 12 50 31 77 7 2   101
Mike Hessman         3b 31 .233 .316 .476 118 424 58 99 15 2 28 66 46 144 3 4   106
Jeffrey Larish*      1b 26 .252 .329 .436 133 461 52 116 23 1 20 69 49 118 3 3   100
Gary Sheffield       dh 40 .236 .339 .395 115 423 65 100 16 0 17 53 61 73 11 3   93
Timo Perez*          lf 34 .276 .329 .388 110 399 48 110 19 1 8 47 30 43 11 4   89
Brandon Inge         c   32 .240 .316 .408 145 483 63 116 24 3 17 70 47 124 6 3   90
Gerald Laird         c   29 .262 .313 .400 107 370 55 97 22 1 9 43 25 75 4 3   87
Alexis Gomez*        lf 30 .265 .310 .408 63 196 22 52 11 1 5 22 12 44 5 2   88
Michael Hollimon#      2b 27 .236 .308 .404 108 394 56 93 19 4 13 40 40 117 9 4   86
Ryan Strieby         1b 23 .238 .290 .417 122 475 47 113 17 1 22 75 34 122 2 3   84
Brent Clevlen         rf 25 .234 .303 .388 135 466 56 109 15 3 17 57 44 171 6 3   81
Clete Thomas*        cf 25 .247 .312 .363 128 482 59 119 23 3 9 45 43 127 25 10   78
Casper Wells         rf 24 .230 .292 .415 105 400 51 92 16 2 18 52 27 109 13 9   84
Ramon Santiago#      ss 29 .255 .319 .347 75 216 31 55 10 2 2 19 15 34 3 2   76
Don Kelly*          2b 29 .257 .311 .343 115 385 47 99 17 2 4 39 28 42 6 3   73
Dusty Ryan           c   24 .227 .290 .382 90 322 36 73 12 1 12 42 28 114 1 1   76
Matt Treanor         c   33 .242 .324 .322 51 149 16 36 6 0 2 19 15 30 0 0   72
William Rhymes*      2b 26 .259 .304 .318 138 544 65 141 16 2 4 45 34 72 18 6   65
Adam Everett         ss 32 .235 .284 .330 104 361 37 85 20 1 4 36 21 66 8 3   64
Wilkin Ramirez       lf 23 .227 .271 .356 126 489 55 111 14 2 15 52 27 163 25 12   64
Maxim St. Pierre       c   29 .236 .279 .329 63 225 22 53 9 0 4 26 12 37 1 1   60
Scott Sizemore       2b 24 .221 .283 .311 77 299 35 66 13 1 4 23 24 59 10 6   57
Dane Sardinha         c   30 .201 .243 .307 84 274 25 55 8 0 7 25 14 76 1 1   44
Cale Iorg           ss 23 .196 .248 .306 102 409 44 80 11 2 10 35 22 148 16 13   45

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Cabrera           Fr   Pr        
Ordonez                       Av
Granderson*                  Vg  
Guillen#          Av   Fr Fr Av    
Polanco             Vg          
Thames             Av       Fr   Fr
Raburn               Fr Fr   Av Av Av
Hessman           Av   Pr Pr      
Larish*            Av   Pr        
Sheffield           Pr       Pr   Pr
T.I.M.O.*                  Fr Pr Fr
Inge                 Vg   Av Av Av
Laird         Av                
Gomez*                    Av Pr Av
Hollimon#            Av   Fr      
Strieby           Vg            
Clevlen                   Vg Fr Vg
Thomas*                    Av Fr Av
Wells                     Av Fr Av
Santiago#            Av   Av      
Kelly*            Av Fr Av Pr      
Ryan           Av   Fr            
Treanor         Av                
Rhymes*              Vg   Fr      
Everett                 Vg      
Ramirez               Pr   Vg    
St. Pierre       Vg                
Sizemore             Av          
Sardinha       Fr   Av            
Iorg                   Vg      

OFFENSIVE MATRIX

Name         PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO           COMP 1           COMP2           COMP3
CabreraMiguel   3B     85%  13%    2%    0%    0%      HartJim Ray         SantoRon       HigginsPinky
OrdonezMagglio   RF     38%  38%  15%    7%    2%      AlouMoises       FurilloCarl         KalineAl
GrandersonCurtis CF     66%  17%  12%    4%    1%    Van SlykeAndy         HayesVon       MosebyLloyd
GuillenCarlos   3B     33%  37%  18%    8%    4%      MuellerBill       BonillaBobby       CaminitiKen
PolancoPlacido   2B     31%  21%  20%  17%  11%      RojasCookie         SaxSteve       MillanFelix
ThamesMarcus     LF     15%  31%  21%  18%  16%    IncavigliaPete     TriplettCoaker       ZernialGus
RaburnRyan     LF     1%  17%  28%  32%  21%      CordovaMarty         KnottJon     BergerBrandon
HessmanMike     3B     12%  27%  23%  19%  19%    CoolbaughMike     MaynardBuster     BranyanRussell
LarishJeffrey   1B     1%  11%  17%  33%  38%    WhitesellJosh       RifkinAaron       HarrisGail
SheffieldGary   DH     0%    6%  12%  31%  51%        BaylorDon         AaronHank     KillebrewHarmon
PerezTimo       LF     0%    3%    9%  24%  64%      RadcliffRip       SurhoffB.J.        GriffeyKen
GomezAlexis     LF     0%    0%    3%  14%  83%      StahlLarry       TolanBobby       SmithWillie
IngeBrandon     C     5%  26%  30%  29%  11%        HeganJim       KarkoviceRon         PenaTony
LairdGerald     C     1%  15%  30%  39%  16%      LamannoRay   QuinteroHumberto         MelvinBob
HollimonMichael   2B     6%    9%  15%  24%  47%      ConradBrooks       CrespoCesar     HairstonJerry
StriebyRyan     1B     0%    3%    6%  20%  71%  CarterChristopher     WhitneyMatthew       KaaihueKala
ThomasClete     CF     3%    5%  13%  23%  57%    SaundersMichael       MartinDustin         CoatsBuck
ClevlenBrent     RF     0%    4%    7%  13%  75%    AllegraMatthew       StewartCaleb       McCarthyBill
WellsCasper     RF     3%    7%    7%  11%  73%      StewartQuinn         MatherJoe     GartrellMaurice
SantiagoRamon   SS     0%    2%  12%  39%  48%      CintronAlex       StockerKevin         UribeJose
KellyDon       2B     0%    0%    2%  13%  84%      DoyleDenny       HillerChuck       YoungBobby
RyanDusty       C     0%    5%  14%  31%  49%  PaniaguaSalvador       ChitiHarry     QuirozGuillermo
TreanorMatt     C     0%    0%    3%  35%  63%    EtchebarrenAndy         SwiftBob       CeroneRick
RhymesWilliam   2B     0%    0%    1%    5%  94%      SuttonNate     AndersonMarlon       ThurstonJoe
EverettAdam     SS     0%    0%    0%  12%  88%        LavanDoc     GallowayChick       DuffyFrank
RamirezWilkin   LF     0%    0%    1%    3%  96%      LasterJeramy       WellsCasper       GrahamTyler
St. PierreMaxim   C     0%    0%    0%    3%  97%        NievesWil       TorborgJeff       HayworthRed
SizemoreScott   2B     0%    0%    0%    0%  100%      BlairCameron       DavisonTodd       RowlettCasey
SardinhaDane     C     0%    0%    0%    0%  100%        CashKevin       SpencerRoy     EspositoBrian
IorgCale       SS     0%    0%    0%    1%  99%      WaltonNeil       BrewerBrent       CoultasRyan

—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

Justin Verlander       26   4.27 14 11 32 32   194.0 192   92 20   74 162 106
Jeremy Bonderman       26   4.45   7   7 22 22   137.2 143   68 16   47 114 101
Armando Galarraga       27   4.79 10 10 28 27   159.2 166   85 24   62 107   94
Edwin Jackson         25   4.98 11 14 32 32   179.0 195   99 21   77 120   90
Jon Kibler*          22   5.22   8 11 23 23   131.0 154   76 16   43   45   86
Nate Robertson*        31   5.28   9 12 29 28   168.2 194   99 24   60 110   85
Dontrelle Willis*      27   5.34   7 10 26 25   143.1 159   85 19   72   86   84
Kenny Rogers*        44   5.38   7 11 25 25   144.0 169   86 20   56   71   84
Rick Porcello         20   5.80   5   9 24 24   113.1 139   73 18   37   40   78
Luis Marte           22   5.80   3   6 16 11   66.2   77   43 12   30   33   78
Chris Lambert         26   5.82   6 11 31 22   128.1 149   83 20   62   82   77
Duane Below*          23   6.17   5 11 26 26   128.1 150   88 21   74   70   73
Kyle Bloom*          26   6.61   5 11 27 24   115.2 136   85 23   72   62   68

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

Bobby Seay*          31   3.88   2   1 53   0   48.2   48   21   3   19   43 116
Joel Zumaya           24   3.92   3   2 37   0   43.2   38   19   4   28   44 115
Brandon Lyon         29   4.11   5   3 66   0   65.2   71   30   5   18   44 110
Rudy Darrow           25   4.35   4   4 40   0   49.2   53   24   3   24   25 104
Fernando Rodney       32   4.44   4   4 48   0   50.2   46   25   5   31   54 102
Clay Rapada*          28   4.74   3   4 56   0   57.0   59   30   5   30   41   95
Zach Miner           27   4.79   6   6 34 14   103.1 112   55   9   44   57   94
Todd Jones           41   4.86   3   3 53   0   50.0   58   27   4   18   22   93
Macay McBride*        26   4.93   1   2 34   2   34.2   35   19   4   20   27   91
Aquilino Lopez         34   5.27   3   3 48   1   71.2   81   42 13   23   55   85
Casey Fien           25   5.37   2   4 42   0   55.1   63   33 10   16   35   84
Freddy Dolsi         26   5.53   3   5 49   0   55.1   63   34   7   29   30   82
Juan Rincon           30   5.64   2   4 58   0   60.2   71   38   9   27   42   80
Zachary Simons         24   5.79   3   6 44   0   60.2   65   39   9   43   39   78
Scott Williamson       33   5.86   1   3 28   0   27.2   30   18   5   14   24   77

* - Throws Left

PITCHING MATRIX

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         Comp1         Comp2         Comp3
BelowDuane     SP     0%    9%  91%    NarvesonChris   MaloneyMatthew     GabbardKason
BloomKyle       SP     0%    4%  96%    NarvesonChris     HampsonJustin       SnareRyan
BondermanJeremy   SP     30%  57%  13%      MillerStu       GrossKevin     LeonardDennis
BonineEddie     SP     2%  29%  69%    HubbellBill     SampsonChris     SheldonRollie
DarrowRudy     RP     16%  51%  33%    McDonaldJim     GravesDanny       HillRonald
DolsiFreddy     RP     3%  24%  73%      HannanJim       WalkupJim       JonesBarry
FienCasey       RP     4%  28%  68%      WilsonKris       BettsHuck     KealeySteve
GalarragaArmando SP     17%  49%  34%      HirshJason       EldredCal       MaineJohn
JacksonEdwin     SP     4%  42%  54%  FreislebenDave         AaseDon     DempsterRyan
JonesTodd       RP     12%  39%  49%      ByerlyBud       HergesMatt       MadduxMike
KiblerJonathan   SP     5%  42%  53%    LaffeyAaron     SowersJeremy     JasterLarry
LambertChris     SP     1%  21%  78%  FreislebenDave   CrucetaFrancisco   TankersleyDennis
LopezAquilino   RP     4%  27%  69%      HevingJoe     PenaOrlando     RaymondClaude
LyonBrandon     RP     31%  49%  20%    JimenezJose       KingNellie     UpshawCecil
MarteLuis       SP     3%  19%  78%      MahomesPat       NorrisMike     ScudderScott
McBrideMacay     RP     12%  37%  51%      HallDrew       DaalOmar     CapillaDoug
MinerZach       RP     19%  51%  29%      GraheJoe       WickmanBob   AndujarJoaquin
PorcelloRick     SP     1%  20%  79%  LemongelloMark     MoseleyDustin       FosterAlan
RapadaClay     RP     9%  47%  44%      MohlerMike       RuckerDave     StantonMike
RinconJuan     RP     2%  17%  81%      AkerJack       LintonDoug     HillmanDave
RobertsonNate   SP     4%  39%  57%    KellnerAlex     LemasterDenny       SmithEddie
RodneyFernando   RP     18%  41%  41%      HughesJim     LaCorteFrank     BurtschyMoe
RogersKenny     SP     3%  33%  64%    FlanaganMike   MitchellClarence       GlavineTom
SeayBobby       RP     37%  44%  18%  DarensbourgVic       DayleyKen     McElroyChuck
SimonsZachary   RP     1%  12%  87%    FrutoEmiliano     DeShongJimmie       OgdenCurly
VerlanderJustin   SP     38%  54%    7%    EscobarKelvim       WilsonDon       JaveryAl
WilliamsonScott   RP     9%  19%  73%      MungoVan   BottalicoRicky       HallDarren
WillisDontrelle   SP     5%  37%  58%    KoronkaJohn       MooreBarry     GabbardKason
ZumayaJoel     RP     40%  39%  21%    BruneyBrian       OlsonGregg       ManteiMatt

——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ 140+

Cabrera   62
Granderson 21
Ordonez   19

OBP .400+

Cabrera   26
Ordonez   16
Guillen   12

SLG .550+

Cabrera   59
Thames   25
Granderson 17

BA .325+

Polanco   32
Ordonez   32
Cabrera   27

2B 45+

Cabrera   28
ordonez   8
Granderson 7

3B 5+

Granderson 98
Guillen   38
Hollimon   30

HR 30+

Cabrera   79
Hessman   38
Granderson 20

SB 50+

Thomas     1

ERA+ 140+ (Starters)

Verlander   4
Bonderman   2
Galarraga   1

ERA+ 140+ (Relievers)

Zumaya   24
Seay     23
Lyon     15

K/9 9+ (Starters)

Verlander   9
Bonderman   4
Lambert   1

K/9 9+ (Relievers)

Rodney   60
Zumaya   43
Seay     22

BB/9 1.5- (Starters)

Bonine   16
Porcello   1

BB/9 1.5- (Relievers)

Fien     6
Lyon     6
Jones     3

HR/9 0.7- (Starters)

Verlander 26
Bonderman 20
Kibler   13

HR/9 0.7- (Relievers)

Darrow   89
Seay     77
Lyon     61

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. 

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

 

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Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:09 PM | 55 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:38 PM (#3083662)
I know he was great in 2007, but it has got to be a pretty harsh downer to have Bobby Seay as your best pitcher.
   2. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:40 PM (#3083665)
Inge's D at C?
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2009 at 05:43 PM (#3083668)
Inge's D at C?


AV
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:02 PM (#3083706)
There's a candidate for whitest name in baseball - Clete Thomas.

Who's Rudy Darrow?
   5. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:08 PM (#3083715)
I know defensive ratings are tricky and I could quibble with dozens of them but there's one here that is way off from my understanding of reality (and for a guy unlikely to spend much time in the show). Mike Hessman has, at minimum, average big league range at third (which is why he played spare innings at short last year).
   6. Greg K Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:09 PM (#3083717)
He's the guy that got [/url]Leopold and Loeb off, isn't he?
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:13 PM (#3083731)
Mike Hessman has, at minimum, average big league range at third (which is why he played spare innings at short last year).

Good catch - he was actually supposed to be AV (I have his projection as +3)
   8. greenback calls it soccer Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:14 PM (#3083736)
Dan, any idea how many players you have projected to hit .300 in 2009? I'm wondering how weird somebody like Polanco is, I guess. I certainly didn't expect him to last this long.
   9. Run Joe Run Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:17 PM (#3083741)
It seems the Tiger's plan for an improved rotation, or to a lesser extent the bullpen, is "hope everyone does better than last year." To be honest, maybe that is an ok plan for guys like Verlander and Bonderman.
   10. The District Attorney Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:24 PM (#3083760)
No offense to Tigers fans, but this feels like a really boring team to me. I mean, I know the guys, and I love Granderson, but it's just... blah. Maybe Cabrera, Verlander and Zumaya playing like superstars again will give some oomph.

Or Dontrelle Willis. Although if he's projected to put up a 5.37 ERA and is comparable to John Koronka, it's probably not that likely. Ah, Dontrelle. So sad.

I had no clue Scott Williamson was still active. Probably a little less of a tragedy than Dontrelle, but he sure did look promising for a little while there.

You know who'd give huge oomph? Maxim St. Pierre.

What the hell did Timo Perez ever do to draw comparisons to BJ Surhoff and Ken Griffey (let's at least hope it's Sr.)??
   11. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:38 PM (#3083772)
Ugh, those pitching numbers are grim.

Any chance of a projection for Perry (Leyland has already been hinting he has a shot to go north) and Satterwhite?

Joe, the other plan is to have more players (Inge, Everett esp) who can make plays behind the pitchers. I really think the D will help, but it may not be enough.

Great work as always Dan, thanks.
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:40 PM (#3083774)
So far, I have 5 players projected to hit .310 (Chipper, Pujols, Kendrick, Polanco, Ordonez) and an additional 11 .300 or better (Cabrera, Wright, Hanley, Pedroia, Braun, Vlad, Ichiro, Diaz, Prado, Atkins, Tejada). Still Twins, White Sox, Yankees to go.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:46 PM (#3083783)
What the hell did Timo Perez ever do to draw comparisons to BJ Surhoff and Ken Griffey (let's at least hope it's Sr.)??

Senior.

Timo's kind of underrated in that he simply seems to be the worst pinch-hitter ever. That projection is almost identical to his non-PH hitting in the majors, but his pinch-hitting is 199/244/266.

One of the more interesting things I've discovered in the projections "game" is just how distorting pinch-hitting appearances are. So distorting, in fact, that despite making your data set smaller by removing them, you actually increase correlation with future stats by doing so.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:48 PM (#3083786)
I was really hoping to not have to project Perry. I will probably leave Perry and Satterwhite out of the official projections spreadsheet, but when I do the March 15-20ish depth charts build, include them on the game disk if it still looks like they could go north.
   15. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 23, 2009 at 06:58 PM (#3083794)
PH: Neat, Dan - though what does that say about pinch hitting as a skill (after all, people do pinch hit in those future appearances)?
   16. Run Joe Run Posted: February 23, 2009 at 07:12 PM (#3083812)
The Tigers may be looking at Rick Porcello as a mid-season call-up if not sooner. The
   17. Mike Green Posted: February 23, 2009 at 07:32 PM (#3083842)
An unfinished sentence about Porcello is just about perfect, when you think about.
   18. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: February 23, 2009 at 07:42 PM (#3083856)
I could see Porcello doing well - but there are big questions about ratcheting up his workload, per outing and overall, and adjusting his approach to miss more bats, as billfer pointed out at the DTW. I know Jim says he could get some 5IP max starts - similar to how Miller was handled in 07 - but I don't know. I don't see it any sooner than midseason, barring injuries. They need to see what they have with Dontrelle and Robertson, either in Detroit or as trade bait.
   19. Every Inge Counts Posted: February 23, 2009 at 08:29 PM (#3083916)
The Tigers seem like the perfect team to try to bring in Ben Sheets...
   20. Run Joe Run Posted: February 23, 2009 at 08:48 PM (#3083939)
They need to see what they have with Dontrelle and Robertson, either in Detroit or as trade bait. I understand this, but while you are waiting to figure out whether Willis can still pitch, he has gone 4-10.
   21. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 23, 2009 at 09:28 PM (#3083982)
The Tigers may be looking at Rick Porcello as a mid-season call-up if not sooner.


That would be a mistake. Porcello was good, but not exactly dominant, at Lakeland a year ago - he was more hittable than one would expect and he wasn't missing as many bats as you would like to see. He still has a lot to learn, IMO.

-- MWE
   22. Obama Bomaye Posted: February 23, 2009 at 09:39 PM (#3083997)
Mike, wasn't that a purposeful plan on Porcello's part, to rely on locating his sinker and not throwing whatever his high school "out" pitch was? Or was that just a cover story to explain a disappointing K total?
   23. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: February 23, 2009 at 09:46 PM (#3084004)
My initial reaction: "holy cow, Bonderman is somehow going to be their 2nd best pitcher? Oh, nice 101 ERA+."
   24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 23, 2009 at 09:48 PM (#3084007)
Tim Dierkes at MLBTraderumors speculates the Tigers could have a firesale if the team doesn't get off to a fast start - Sheff, Polanco, Ordonez, Robertson & Willis (if anyone would take them), even Verlander could be on the block. Agree or disagree?
   25. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: February 23, 2009 at 10:07 PM (#3084029)
Tim Dierkes at MLBTraderumors speculates the Tigers could have a firesale if the team doesn't get off to a fast start - Sheff, Polanco, Ordonez, Robertson & Willis (if anyone would take them), even Verlander could be on the block. Agree or disagree?


Well, of those six names, there will be almost no interest in three of them (Sheff, Robertson, Willis). Ordonez and Polanco maybe, but how do Ordonez's options work? My understanding is that '10 and '11 are guaranteed (at $18 million and $15 million, respectively) if he has 457+ plate appearances in '09. Maggs is a great player, but that's a lot of money for his age 36 and 37 seasons.

The key is going to be Verlander. If he can get back to where he was before '08, they can build a team around him and Cabrera. That's a potentially awesome 1-2 punch (and each of them is entering his age 26 season), and I don't see anybody in the AL Central is running away with things over the next 5 years.
   26. this space for rent Posted: February 23, 2009 at 11:25 PM (#3084110)
Doesn't Carlos Guillen have to top the Tigers' list of tradeable commodities? The Tigers' current plan is to have him in LF, but he'd be just fine at 3B and can probably still handle an occasional day at SS, and he'd be a lot more valuable in the infield.
   27. Run Joe Run Posted: February 23, 2009 at 11:31 PM (#3084118)
The Dow is looking to bust the 7000 mark (going the wrong way). Revenues have to be getting squeezed this year and in the near future. Teams like the Tigers will have it tough due to their market and very high salaried players. They could be looking for some TARP cash
   28. jfish26101 Posted: February 23, 2009 at 11:54 PM (#3084134)
I believe the automakers have already cut thier sponsorships with the Tigers a good deal with more to come if things don't pick up this year.
   29. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 01:06 AM (#3084195)
I know Joe, it's not ideal. The hope is they figure it out in spring training, right? I sure hope that Willis isn't handed a sp spot with the hopes that he'll figure it out as he goes along...
   30. Autobahn Posted: February 24, 2009 at 01:15 AM (#3084203)
Stately is right here, the next couple of years hinges on Verlander being the top ace he was before the last season.

If he collapses then DD is left without a pitching staff and expensive players he can't justify keeping and so will be forced into a fire-sale, the worst part of which is that with the current economic conditions teams aren't going to be willing to take on payroll so it might not improve the tigers money issues in the short-term so much.
   31. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 01:21 AM (#3084207)
Absolutely. Also keep in mind that the Tigers need to win to keep filling Comerica, and to win, Verlander pitching like he did in 06-07 is crucial.

No pressure, Justin!
   32. Run Joe Run Posted: February 24, 2009 at 01:21 AM (#3084208)
Even if you bank on Verlander and Bonderman - the zips for the other 3 Starting Pitching spots are just bad. The Zips on the pen don't look hopeful either. This team could be worse than 2008
   33. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 01:22 AM (#3084209)
I think there are enough parts here to cobble together a rotaton and pen. It will require som ebreaks, but every team in the Central is hoping for a couple things to break right.

In addition to Buck's comments above, Porcello is coming, if not this year. Granderson, MCab, Porcello, and Verlander could be a great core.
   34. Willie Mayspedester Posted: February 24, 2009 at 01:25 AM (#3084212)
That's a pretty good projection for Miguel Cabrera. 135 RBIs would have led the league (I know that it's not what this projection system is best at since it depends on the rest of the team's contributions as well).
   35. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 01:32 AM (#3084217)
Didn't Miggy lead the AL in homers last year, even if it was a bit of a down year overall?
   36. Willie Mayspedester Posted: February 24, 2009 at 01:37 AM (#3084225)
I was just remarking about how good Cabrera is since I think he can reach such a good projection.
   37. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 24, 2009 at 04:02 AM (#3084336)
Mike, wasn't that a purposeful plan on Porcello's part, to rely on locating his sinker and not throwing whatever his high school "out" pitch was? Or was that just a cover story to explain a disappointing K total?


I don't doubt it was part of the plan for Porcello to focus on developing his sinker (which is excellent, BTW), but I've never liked that particular approach. Porcello has to learn how and when to use ALL of his pitches, and he can (and should) do that without asking him to shelve the best one in his arsenal (which is probably his curveball).
   38. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 05:46 AM (#3084390)
Is there a chance for a Oracle on the Orlando Hudson and Joe Crede signings? Or guess I'll just have to wait for the Crede projection, all 50 games of it.
   39. Walt Davis Posted: February 24, 2009 at 06:40 AM (#3084410)
I dunno. It just looks like some of those O's teams when the O's didn't know when to cut bait and start rebuilding. Ages:

33 at 2B, 32 at SS, 32 at 3B, 33 in LF, 35 in RF, 40 at DH

I know a lot of those guys project fairly well but that's rarely a winning recipe. Even the bench is old with maybe Clete Thomas (as 5th OF) the only player under 26 who might get substantial playing time.

I'd recommend bringing up Porcello. Ignoring performance issues, part of the Tigers' long-range problem is that Verlander and Bonderman are already "expensive" at 26. (and of course Robertson and Willis eating up plenty of dough for the next few years too.)

They could win the AL Central (who couldn't?) but I don't see a bright future for the Tigers. And yes, I could see a fire sale but, as has been pointed out, who's gonna buy?
   40. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: February 24, 2009 at 06:46 AM (#3084416)
I'd recommend bringing up Porcello. Ignoring performance issues, part of the Tigers' long-range problem is that Verlander and Bonderman are already "expensive" at 26.

And you want it to happen with Porcello too?
   41. SABRJoe Posted: February 24, 2009 at 09:55 AM (#3084446)
Brent Clevlen: 171 whiffs in 466 AB. Good God...
   42. Walt Davis Posted: February 24, 2009 at 11:41 AM (#3084460)
Sorry, meant to say I recommend against bringing up Porcello
   43. Run Joe Run Posted: February 24, 2009 at 02:36 PM (#3084501)
By bringing in Everett and moving Inge to third, the Tigers hope to improve their defense and thus their pitching. But they will be frustrated with the lack of production.

One of the things I love about the Tigers is these old(ish) guys like Hessman, Larish and Raburn getting shots a bench jobs.
   44. Run Joe Run Posted: February 24, 2009 at 02:45 PM (#3084505)
Brent Clevlen: 171 whiffs in 466 AB. Good God...

He was a very good prospect in A ball. I think winning the FSL MVP in '06. Historically he has played better when he repeats a league (which he has done several times). He won't be a star, but I believe he is a good defensive player and has some power, so he could be a good 4th OF
   45. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: February 24, 2009 at 03:12 PM (#3084514)
In addition to Buck's comments above, Porcello is coming, if not this year.


As a White Sox fan, I'm hoping for a "Por boy" rivalry between Porcello and Poreda in the coming years. Their 2008 numbers look good:

Porcello: 2.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP as a 19-year-old in A+ ball

Poreda: 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP as a 21-year-old in AA ball
   46. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: February 25, 2009 at 11:42 AM (#3085635)
According to ZiPS, the Tigers' pitchers will start 338 games...and totally suck.
   47. NBarnes Posted: February 25, 2009 at 07:38 PM (#3086116)
Nice COMP2 for Sheffield.
   48. DL from MN Posted: February 25, 2009 at 07:46 PM (#3086132)
> Maxim St. Pierre

What a terrific name
   49. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 25, 2009 at 07:48 PM (#3086135)
and a seemingly nice guy (ask dial). too bad he can't hit (he even tried converting to the mound a year or three back).
   50. Jamal Touch em All Posted: February 26, 2009 at 02:14 AM (#3086642)
Any chance on seeing what Zach Miner looks like as a starter?
   51. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 26, 2009 at 07:09 AM (#3086825)
I see Bonine in the matrix and ODDIBE, but could you please add his projection?
   52. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: March 19, 2009 at 04:32 AM (#3108103)
> Maxim St. Pierre

What a terrific name


As we were fond of pointing out over at Brew Crew Ball, it's an anagram for "Marxist Empire".
   53. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 19, 2009 at 05:10 AM (#3108129)
Any chance we get a Yankees TO?
   54. Alexa Posted: April 07, 2009 at 04:10 AM (#3127681)
The Detroit Tigers decided to release the veteran outfielder and designated hitter from his contract as a free agent though normally major league baseball teams aren't one of the organizations that do so. Today, Gary Sheffield is one of the people that will suffer from a corporate decision to downsize. The Tigers are now prepared to eat the salary he's still due, about $14 million, as cash advance loans of sorts towards a future draft pick or room under the salary cap. He is one run shy of 500 career home runs, has over 1,000 career RBIs, and is a solid contender for the Hall of Fame, which makes this an unceremonious dumping of Gary Sheffield.
   55. The District Attorney Posted: April 07, 2009 at 04:26 AM (#3127692)
The Detroit Tigers decided to release the veteran outfielder and designated hitter from his contract as a free agent though normally major league baseball teams aren't one of the organizations that do so.
They aren't? Then which organizations normally release major league baseball players? Furniture makers? Software designers? NATO? What are you talking about?

The Tigers are now prepared to eat the salary he's still due, about $14 million, as cash advance loans of sorts towards a future draft pick or room under the salary cap.
Salary cap?? Is this Bud Selig posting from his own fantasy?

Wait a minute, you're some kind of weird spambot. #### OFF!

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