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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, September 29, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros

Unfortunately, 86 wins while being outscored may very well be the high-water mark for this incarnation of the Astros, with the last few crumbs of the farm system being traded for Miguel Tejada, who was disappointingly average this season.  The Astros were the oldest team in the NL in 2008, with the hitters being a nearly full year older on average than the second-oldest offense (the Padres).  The Cubs emerging as a truly solid team further complicates the matter for the Astros as there’s less chance of being able to pop in for a division crown with 84 wins in the Central.  The Astros have enough players at the top that they can compete in 2009 with some luck, but the team needs to go aggressively after a starting pitcher (and I don’t mean a Brian Moehler).  Depth emerged as a serious issue every time something went wrong this year and there’s not a lot to be found in the minors, meaning that they’ll also have to buy depth, which isn’t exactly the most cost-effective.

As of now (which is obviously extremely early), I’ll put the Astros in the 77-81 win range for 2009. 


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Lance Berkman#        1b 33 .299 .400 .534 151 536 95 160 34 1 30 100 87 112 8 2
Carlos Lee           lf 33 .299 .355 .518 134 525 74 157 32 1 27 92 44 74 8 2
Ty Wigginton         3b 31 .287 .348 .490 123 439 54 126 26 0 21 73 36 86 4 5
Hunter Pence         rf 26 .288 .340 .500 137 528 71 152 30 5 24 88 41 110 11 7
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b————————————————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf————————————————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf————————————————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b————————————————————————————————
Miguel Tejada         ss 33 .300 .344 .441 139 553 76 166 31 1 15 74 30 64 4 3
AVERAGE CF——————- cf————————————————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b————————————————————————————————
Kaz Matsui#          2b 33 .272 .326 .395 95 357 55 97 20 3 6 40 29 63 16 3
J.R. House           c   29 .262 .320 .400 128 462 48 121 23 1 13 58 38 64 1 2
AVERAGE SS——————- ss————————————————————————————————
Mark Loretta         2b 37 .276 .344 .362 96 290 31 80 14 1 3 28 29 29 0 1
AVERAGE C———————c ————————————————————————————————
Val Majewski*        rf 28 .256 .315 .384 87 305 37 78 16 1 7 35 25 56 5 4
David Newhan*        2b 35 .256 .310 .379 82 211 27 54 9 1 5 25 15 42 5 2
Mark Saccomanno       1b 29 .242 .283 .425 124 454 49 110 22 2 19 65 25 94 2 2
Jose Castillo         3b 28 .247 .298 .384 122 396 42 98 23 2 9 45 27 79 2 2
Reggie Abercrombie     rf 28 .246 .280 .417 114 350 47 86 17 2 13 48 12 106 21 6
Geoff Blum#          3b 36 .245 .302 .364 99 269 28 66 14 0 6 31 21 43 1 1
Nick Gorneault       lf 30 .227 .293 .393 109 379 46 86 17 2 14 50 34 99 7 5
Christopher Johnson     3b 24 .246 .276 .387 126 491 49 121 22 1 15 60 20 87 4 2
Justin Towles         c   25 .228 .306 .360 115 386 48 88 16 1 11 45 31 71 7 8
Mitch Einertson       rf 23 .236 .278 .381 112 420 48 99 23 1 12 50 22 79 4 4
Jordan Parraz         cf 24 .237 .301 .348 120 480 59 114 21 1 10 51 36 82 22 12
Darin Erstad*        cf 35 .248 .300 .328 84 238 29 59 11 1 2 21 17 42 3 1
Ray Sadler           cf 28 .221 .276 .386 123 435 47 96 17 2 17 56 29 110 7 5
Michael Bourn*        cf 26 .237 .303 .307 119 342 50 81 7 4 3 29 31 77 29 7
Collin DeLome*        lf 23 .215 .264 .380 107 405 46 87 15 2 16 52 21 91 11 3
Eli Iorg           rf 26 .227 .262 .366 93 344 37 78 14 2 10 39 15 79 15 6
Koby Clemens         c   22 .217 .280 .334 110 419 43 91 17 1 10 44 35 95 3 4
Edwin Maysonet       ss 27 .231 .278 .330 116 385 40 89 18 1 6 37 23 71 7 3
Humberto Quintero     c   29 .238 .277 .333 88 273 24 65 12 1 4 26 10 46 1 1
Brad Ausmus         c   40 .218 .300 .280 86 243 20 53 10 1 1 18 25 47 3 2
Yordany Ramirez       cf 24 .230 .255 .356 117 421 47 97 18 1 11 47 11 65 20 10
Tomas Perez#        3b 35 .232 .268 .299 89 298 28 69 12 1 2 24 15 47 2 2
Thomas Manzella       ss 23 .219 .262 .298 108 406 38 89 19 2 3 32 22 72 8 6

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Berkman#          Av           Pr
Lee                       Pr    
Wigginton           Fr Pr Fr   Fr    
Pence                     Av Fr Av
Tejada                   Av      
Matsui#              Av          
House         Pr   Av            
Loretta           Av Av Fr Fr      
Majewski*                  Av Fr Av
Newhan*            Fr Fr Pr   Fr   Fr
Saccomanno         Fr   Pr        
Castillo             Pr Av Pr      
Abercrombie                 Vg Vg Vg
Blum#            Av Fr Av Fr      
Gorneault                   Av   Av
Johnson               Av        
Towles         Av                
Einertson                   Vg Fr Vg
Parraz                     Av Fr Av
Erstad*            Av       Vg Vg Vg
Sadler                     Vg Av Vg
Bourn*                    Vg Fr Vg
DeLome*                    Av Pr Av
Iorg                     Vg Av Vg
Clemens         Av       Av        
Maysonet             Vg Vg Av Av    
Quintero       Av                
Ausmus         Av                
Ramirez                     Vg Vg
Perez#            Av Av Av Av      
Manzella                 Vg      

Player Spotlight - Ty Wigginton
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%)  .322 .385 .576 134 479 72 154 32 0 30 96 43 85 5 5 148
Mean         .287 .348 .490 123 439 54 126 26 0 21 73 36 86 4 5 117  
Pessimistic (15%) .255 .316 .424 101 361 33 92 19 0 14 51 27 79 2 4   92

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Tim Wallach, Casey Blake

Player Spotlight - Hunter Pence
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%)  .312 .371 .560 157 605 94 189 40 7 32 114 55 113 16 8 140
Mean         .288 .340 .500 137 528 71 152 30 5 24 88 41 110 11 7 117
Pessimistic (15%) .269 .309 .441 121 467 47 122 24 3 18 67 31 108 8 6   94

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jerry Morales, Dan Ford

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Jose Valverde         29   3.31   4   3 65   0   68.0   54   25   8   25   90
La Troy Hawkins       36   3.39   4   2 60   0   61.0   57   23   4   19   43
Geoff Geary           32   3.43   4   2 63   0   76.0   74   29   5   25   48
Roy Oswalt           31   3.61 14   9 31 30   207.0 211   83 17   45 159
Doug Brocail         42   3.97   5   4 67   0   68.0   67   30   8   22   50
AVERAGE RELIEVER——————- 3.98———————————————————————-
Tim Byrdak*          35   4.06   2   1 49   0   51.0   45   23   6   25   51
Chad Paronto         33   4.22   2   2 53   0   64.0   68   30   6   21   41
Chris Sampson         31   4.35   6   7 37 14   118.0 129   57 15   21   61
AVERAGE STARTER———————4.48———————————————————————-
Wandy Rodriguez*      27   4.59   8 10 28 27   151.0 157   77 18   58 126
Micah Bowie*          34   4.64   1   2 25   1   33.0   33   17   3   18   27
Randy Wolf*          32   4.68   7   8 23 23   127.0 131   66 17   50 105
Ray King*            35   4.95   1   2 56   0   40.0   44   22   5   20   22
Dave Borkowski         32   4.96   3   4 56   0   78.0   84   43 10   29   57
Wesley Wright*        24   4.97   4   5 62   0   67.0   63   37   9   42   58
Chad Reineke         27   5.03   5   8 27 19   118.0 126   66 16   51   83
Samuel Gervacio       24   5.04   4   5 53   0   75.0   81   42 11   33   63
Alberto Arias         25   5.16   4   6 42   6   82.0   88   47 12   34   54
Nick Regilio         30   5.20   2   4 39   0   45.0   48   26   6   23   34
Brian Moehler         37   5.40   5   8 30 14   100.0 121   60 16   28   54
Ryan Houston         29   5.49   2   3 48   0   59.0   63   36   8   36   46
Fernando Nieve         26   5.53   2   5 33   8   70.0   79   43 12   30   49
Polin Trinidad*        24   5.53   6 11 27 27   153.0 178   94 28   39   79
Bud Norris           24   5.54   4   8 22 22   91.0 102   56 14   43   59
Jack Cassel           28   5.56   5 11 25 20   131.0 159   81 19   47   74
Brad James           25   5.57   4   8 19 18   97.0 115   60 13   44   38
Paul Estrada         26   5.69   2   5 36   0   49.0   51   31   9   30   46
Brandon Backe         31   5.72   4 10 18 18   96.0 111   61 18   45   63
Kyle Middleton         29   5.73   2   5 30   9   77.0   92   49 13   30   40
Joshua Miller         30   5.73   5 10 28 17   132.0 162   84 23   29   60
Runelvys Hernandez     31   5.92   5 11 23 22   117.0 139   77 21   51   70
Josh Muecke*          27   6.05   4 11 28 19   125.0 148   84 22   53   64
Felipe Paulino         25   6.22   3   6 15 14   68.0   77   47 12   45   43

* - Throws Left


Player Spotlight - Roy Oswalt
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  2.67 19   6 34 33 236 213   70 14   39 189   161
Mean           3.61 14   9 31 30 207 211   83 17   45 159   119  
Pessimistic (15%)  4.47   9 10 26 25 163 181   81 18   46 121   96

Top Near-Age Comps: Kevin Brown, Charles Nagy

Player Spotlight - Wandy Rodriguez
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.72 11   9 31 30 174 165   72 17   48 151   115
Mean           4.59   8 10 28 27 151 157   77 18   58 126   94
Pessimistic (15%)  5.43   5 10 23 22 121 138   73 18   45   96   79

Top Near-Age Comps:  Alex Kellner, Woodie Fryman

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: September 29, 2008 at 07:09 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. tyler Posted: September 29, 2008 at 08:21 PM (#2960448)
I think something's a bit off in the spotlights; they don't match up with the "main" projections. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if Wandy's mean projection was 3.62...seems unlikely though...
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: September 29, 2008 at 08:45 PM (#2960484)
Whoops! Those are John Lackey's and Ervin Santana's projections!
   3. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: September 29, 2008 at 09:01 PM (#2960498)
And Kendrick and Teixeira in place of Wigginton and Pence, if you hadn't noticed.
   4. tyler Posted: September 29, 2008 at 09:02 PM (#2960501)
Knew it was too good to be true. I'm guessing Pence isn't going to start hitting like Tex either?

Seriously, thanks Dan, you're the best.
   5. tyler Posted: September 29, 2008 at 09:06 PM (#2960505)
Coke'd
   6. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: September 29, 2008 at 09:07 PM (#2960507)
nice to see the zips projections starting so earily then again i realize its because as an os fan dan has lots of october freetime
   7. flournoy Posted: September 29, 2008 at 09:17 PM (#2960519)
J.R. Towles sure was disappointing this year, to put it to an extreme. What the heck happened to him?
   8. Juan V Posted: September 29, 2008 at 09:30 PM (#2960530)
Well, I guess Yankees fans will have to wait a while for their ZiPS, right?
   9. Walt Davis Posted: September 29, 2008 at 09:43 PM (#2960540)
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jerry Morales, Dan Ford

Ooh, that's not so good though better Ford than Morales.

Well, I guess Yankees fans will have to wait a while for their ZiPS, right?

Yeah, but next year they're coming in order of latitude.

How many ways can we think of ordering ZiPS to keep Dan from getting bored ... we've already had cities in both directions, we've got team names going this year ...

order of founding
all-time winning percentage
in order of the season(s) Mike Morgan pitched for them
   10. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: September 29, 2008 at 10:36 PM (#2960579)
I'm kinda of surprised at Wandy's projection, I thought it would have been better. Does ZiPS just think he was lucky this year to end up with the ERA he did?
   11. Mike Webber Posted: September 30, 2008 at 02:24 AM (#2960768)
Are 'Stros fans a worried that Hunter Pence's inability to draw walks so far may keep him from becoming a really good offensive player?
   12. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: September 30, 2008 at 02:35 AM (#2960777)
If they are, they should be really worried that Pence is projected with the third highest walk total on the team.
   13. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: September 30, 2008 at 03:55 PM (#2961140)
Hunter Pence is the least of the Astros' problems. I'd be more worried about the starting pitching and out machines in CF.
   14. frenchredsox Posted: October 01, 2008 at 11:52 AM (#2962186)
Um wasnt Chad Reineke traded to the Padres for Wolf ? btw Great work
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 01, 2008 at 12:16 PM (#2962196)
Um wasnt Chad Reineke traded to the Padres for Wolf ? btw Great work

Yes, he'll reappear with the Padres - I'm sometimes a bit sloppy when it comes to the late season trades and end up including those players with both teams.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 02, 2008 at 12:39 PM (#2964417)
Kind of surprised that Pence projects as well as he does, though ZiPS has a much better track record than I do.
   17. TOLAXOR Posted: October 04, 2008 at 01:40 AM (#2966724)
Erstad* Av Vg Vg Vg


WOHOO!!! GO DARRIN ERSTAD!!!

HE WAS A COLLEGE PUNTER, YOU KNOW...
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:54 PM (#2973627)
Still feels weird to not see Jimerson on the Astros' list.

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