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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, February 21, 2009

2009 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

Dayton Moore has had a mixed record in Kansas City and while he did a good job turning the Royals from a laughingstock basement-dweller to a respectable, though mediocre, team, it’s still a very open question as to whether he’s the right man to guide the team towards the next step of becoming a team capable of competing for the playoffs.

So far, I’d have to give a qualified no to the second question.  You can’t run a poor-to-middling team in the same manner that you would run a truly competitive team.  The risks a team in the Royals position should be willing to take are far greater than those that a team like the Red Sox should be willing to take.

The Red Sox or Yankees aren’t able to do a whole lot of high-risk plays.  Neither can afford to aggressively promote a Kala Kaaihue or a Carlos Rosa or give Ryan Shealy a shot to see where he is.  A good team might, if the structure of the team calls for it, need to acquire Mike Jacobs or Coco Crisp or sign Jose Guillen or Kyle Farnsworth or even Horacio Ramirez (I’m not sure even a team in Italy could really justify signing Willie Bloomquist).  The Royals are not that team - the value they get from known mediocrity is just about zero.  If Tony Pena had merely been bad instead of downright horrible, Mike Aviles probably doesn’t get a shot to shine.  That’s not what poor teams should be doing.  The advantage of being in the position of the Royals or Orioles or Rangers is that you can dare to do things that the big dogs can’t.

The Royals are unlikely to make a serious run at the division this year.  It’s not impossible as there are a lot of decent players (though light on stars) and there are no juggernaut teams in the Central, but I think the odds are against it.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
HITTERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS   OPS+ 

David DeJesus*        cf 29 .287 .359 .428 136 526 80 151 30 7 10 65 49 72 8 5   106
Alex Gordon*        3b 25 .259 .343 .442 148 525 72 136 36 3 18 64 59 124 11 3   104
J.R. House           1b 29 .291 .346 .436 145 525 63 153 32 1 14 73 42 64 2 3   104
Billy Butler         dh 23 .284 .344 .432 160 584 68 166 33 1 17 83 53 78 2 1   102
Mark Teahen*        rf 27 .272 .341 .432 158 562 79 153 33 6 15 65 58 127 9 3   102
Kala Kaaihue         1b 24 .258 .345 .432 135 465 58 120 18 0 21 74 61 84 2 2   103
Mike Jacobs*        1b 28 .262 .313 .485 135 478 67 125 33 1 24 82 36 100 2 1   106
Ryan Shealy         1b 29 .268 .336 .436 112 358 44 96 18 0 14 53 32 97 2 1   101
Jose Guillen         rf 33 .272 .321 .448 138 525 66 143 33 1 19 87 27 93 3 1   99
Mike Aviles         ss 28 .289 .319 .433 154 610 82 176 36 5 14 73 26 71 9 4   95
Shane Costa*        rf 27 .279 .326 .420 88 305 37 85 20 1 7 31 19 39 6 1   95
Mark Grudzielanek     2b 39 .288 .334 .392 74 288 37 83 19 1 3 23 15 37 1 1   91
Tug Hulett*          ss   6 .258 .330 .388 134 477 71 123 26 3 10 48 50 95 14 6   88
Mitch Maier*        cf 27 .279 .315 .405 143 541 69 151 32 3 10 60 27 86 10 5   88
Alberto Callaspo#      2b 26 .281 .335 .376 89 303 38 85 14 3 3 27 24 21 3 3   87
Brayan Pena#        c   27 .280 .326 .392 98 332 36 93 20 1 5 35 21 30 5 4   88
Esteban German       2b 31 .267 .344 .369 70 195 30 52 11 3 1 21 21 34 6 3   88
Ross Gload*          1b 33 .286 .325 .393 75 224 27 64 13 1 3 26 13 25 2 2   88
Coco Crisp#          cf 29 .267 .328 .380 128 434 63 116 22 3 7 49 39 68 20 6   85
John Buck           c   28 .237 .312 .408 122 397 48 94 24 1 14 55 38 98 1 3   87
Corey Smith         3b 27 .241 .298 .396 144 535 47 129 27 1 18 65 39 129 8 4   81
Miguel Olivo         c   30 .252 .277 .427 111 393 43 99 23 2 14 54 10 92 6 2   82
Willie Bloomquist     2b 31 .268 .332 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 18 22 12 3   78
Tommy Murphy#        cf 29 .252 .303 .353 139 496 66 125 24 4 6 42 35 110 27 10   72
Mike Moustakas*      3b 20 .246 .284 .383 140 574 60 141 20 1 19 63 28 121 7 6   74
Matt Tupman*        c   29 .253 .315 .320 89 300 30 76 12 1 2 29 26 42 1 1   68
Chris Lubanski*      lf 24 .229 .278 .373 125 442 46 101 19 3 13 48 32 134 6 4   69
Mario Lisson         3b 25 .230 .277 .348 146 535 54 123 25 1 12 59 30 119 27 9   63
Joseph Dickerson*      cf 22 .253 .299 .326 98 368 34 93 11 2 4 32 20 64 20 16   65
Jose Duarte         cf 24 .238 .283 .317 141 571 66 136 19 1 8 42 36 105 24 11   55
Jeffrey Howell       c   26 .223 .266 .319 88 301 22 67 14 0 5 30 16 59 1 3   53
Jeff Bianchi         ss 22 .222 .248 .334 113 437 46 97 23 1 8 46 15 103 11 5   51
Tony Pena           ss 28 .234 .258 .309 114 346 39 81 14 3 2 27 10 66 5 4   49
Luis Hernandez#      ss 25 .235 .268 .284 127 430 41 101 14 2 1 29 19 58 5 5   45
Derrick Robinson#      cf 21 .215 .255 .257 126 521 53 112 15 2 1 26 28 115 42 16   35

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

OFFENSIVE MATRIX

Name           PO     EX     VG     AV     FR     PO         COMP 1           COMP2           COMP3
DeJesusDavid     CF     25%    26%    31%    15%    4%      GreenLenny       DamonJohnny     UhlaenderTed
HouseJ.R.      1B       0%    14%    24%    39%    23%      JacksonRon   CanizaresBarbaro     CervenakMike
GordonAlex       3B     19%    37%    25%    13%    5%      HowellRoy       HattonGrady     GarrettWayne
ButlerBilly     DH       1%    14%    23%    39%    23%      TriandosGus       KonerkoPaul       McMullenKen
JacobsMike       1B     11%    29%    22%    25%    13%    KryhoskiDick     HoffpauirMicah     DaubachBrian
TeahenMark       RF       4%    23%    24%    25%    24%      StoneJohn     KirklandWillie       O’LearyTroy
ShealyRyan       1B       0%    8%    22%    48%    22%      ZauchinNorm       ZuletaJulio     DuncanShelley
KaaihueKila     1B       3%    17%    20%    32%    28%    DelaneyJason       SheldonOle       KreuzerJosh
GuillenJose     RF       5%    15%    17%    22%    41%      JordanBrian       TovarCesar     MartinezDave
CostaShane       RF       1%    9%    15%    24%    52%      SummaHomer     VukovichGeorge       PilarcikAl
AvilesMike       SS     23%    24%    25%    19%    9%      CruzDeivi       WilsonJack       LoganJohnny
GrudzielanekMark   2B       6%    13%    22%    29%    30%      WhiteFrank       GantnerJim       LarkinBarry
CrispCoco       CF       7%    17%    31%    29%    17%    ThomasDerrel     AmezagaAlfredo       ScottTony
MaierMitch       CF       2%    8%    26%    33%    31%        UnserDel     SchumakerSkip       ReedJeremy
GloadRoss       1B       0%    0%    2%    22%    76%    BiittnerLarry       JohnstonDoc       KollowayDon
HulettTug       SS       6%    16%    28%    31%    19%    McAuliffeDick         KellyDon     StillwellKurt
PenaBrayan       C       1%    16%    30%    39%    14%      AlomarSandy       RodgersBuck       HillKoyie
GermanEsteban     2B       1%    6%    22%    42%    30%  StirnweissSnuffy     CarrollJamey     BannisterAlan
CallaspoAlberto   2B       0%    4%    15%    33%    47%  LandestoyRafael   De la CruzChris       HillDonnie
BuckJohn       C       1%    18%    28%    35%    17%        RiceDel       AverillEarl       DuncanDave
OlivoMiguel     C       0%    10%    27%    43%    20%    AlfonzoEliezer       RiveraMike       WidgerChris
SmithCorey       3B       1%    5%    11%    19%    64%    MacriMatthew       ZimmerDon       MitchellLee
MurphyTommy     CF       0%    1%    7%    23%    69%      ScottTony       CarrChuck     SimmonsBrian
BloomquistWillie   2B       0%    1%    3%    12%    85%      AmaralRich     KennedyJunior       MooreEddie
MoustakasMike     3B       0%    2%    6%    12%    80%    DavisLeonard       DewittBlake     HatchAnthony
TupmanMatt       C       0%    0%    1%    13%    87%      OatesJohnny     FabregasJorge       CrouseBuck
LubanskiChris     LF       0%    0%    2%    4%    94%    PeralesDaniel       ButiaMike       ClarkKevin
LissonMario     3B       0%    1%    3%    7%    90%    KlostermanRyan   van KootenJason         PopeVan
DickersonJoseph   RF       0%    0%    0%    0%  100%    BrownDominic     ParraGerardo       MatuliaJohn
DuarteJose       CF       0%    0%    0%    3%    96%  FermaintCharlie   RobinsonTrayvon       GodwinAdam
BianchiJeffrey   2B       0%    0%    0%    0%  100%  MattinglyPreston       NixJayson       CobbLarry
HowellJeffrey     C       0%    0%    0%    1%    99%      PurdomJohn     LunarFernando     MercadoRichard
PenaTony       SS       0%    0%    0%    1%    98%      RivasLuis       NievesJose     MendozaMario
HernandezLuis     SS       0%    0%    0%    0%  100%    SanchezYunesky     OrtizYancarlos     FisherMichael
RobinsonDerrick   CF       0%    0%    0%    0%  100%    JacksonAnthony       WhiteAdam       KeoughShane

DEFENSE

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
DeJesus*                  Vg Av  
Gordon*            Av   Av        
House         Pr   Av            
Butler             Fr       Pr    
Teahen*            Av   Pr   Av   Av
Kaaihue           Fr            
Jacobs*            Pr            
Shealy             Av            
Guillen                       Fr
Aviles               Vg Vg Vg      
Costa*                    Av Pr Av
Grudzielanek           Av          
Hulett*              Vg   Av      
Maier*                    Vg Av Vg
Callaspo#            Av Av Fr      
Pena#          Vg   Av   Fr   Fr   Fr
German               Fr Fr Fr Fr Fr  
Gload*            Fr       Fr   Fr
Crisp#                    Vg Av  
Buck           Av                
Smith             Fr   Pr        
Olivo         Av                
Bloomquist         Av Av Av Av Vg Fr Vg
Murphy#                    Vg Av Vg
Moustakas*              Vg Fr      
Tupman*        Av                
Lubanski*                  Av    
Lisson             Vg   Vg Fr      
Dickerson*                  Fr Pr Fr
Duarte                       Vg  
Howell         Vg                
Bianchi             Av   Fr      
Pena                   Vg      
Hernandez#            Av   Av      
Robinson#                    Vg
—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

Zack Greinke         25   4.11 10   9 27 27   168.2 171   77 22   49 145 110
Gil Meche           30   4.21 11 11 32 32   194.2 194   91 21   69 158 107
Carlos Rosa           24   4.34   7   7 23 20   103.2 111   50   9   33   56 104
Brian Bannister       28   5.24   8 13 27 27   154.2 174   90 23   51   88   86
Blake Wood           23   5.46   4   8 20 20   97.1 110   59 15   39   54   83
Kyle Davies           25   5.52   7 14 27 27   135.1 157   83 18   60   81   82
Brandon Duckworth       33   5.54   5   9 22 17   105.2 122   65 16   45   60   81
Luke Hochevar         25   5.56   6 11 25 25   142.1 164   88 21   52   82   81
Lenny Dinardo*        29   5.79   3   7 24 15   87.0 110   56 12   30   45   78
Dan Cortes           22   5.93   5 10 23 23   107.2 123   71 19   57   63   76
Julio Caesar Pimentel   23   6.05   5 13 27 25   147.1 183   99 25   54   57   75
Matt Wright           27   6.25   4 11 26 22   135.1 164   94 25   62   66   72

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

Joakim Soria         25   2.26   4   1 64   0   67.2   49   17   5   18   74 199
Ron Mahay*          38   3.86   3   2 60   0   65.1   62   28   5   32   52 117
John Bale*          35   4.44   2   3 29   2   46.2   52   23   4   15   33 102
Tim Hamulack*        32   4.50   1   1 26   0   30.0   29   15   4   13   25 100
Jimmy Gobble*        27   4.74   2   3 61   0   49.1   51   26   6   25   45   95
Horacio Ramirez*      29   4.78   2   3 46   0   49.0   57   26   4   16   20   94
Joel Peralta         33   4.79   2   2 55   0   73.1   77   39 12   20   55   94
Kyle Farnsworth       33   4.79   2   3 64   0   62.0   64   33 10   27   58   94
Doug Waechter         28   4.92   3   3 52   0   64.0   74   35   8   19   32   91
Jamey Wright         34   4.99   5   7 43   6   79.1   89   44   7   32   44   90
Rob Tejeda           27   5.02   5   7 31 15   100.1   99   56 13   60   76   90
Yasuhiko Yabuta       36   5.10   4   5 48   0   65.1   71   37   8   33   41   88
Henry Barrera         23   5.12   1   2 37   0   51.0   56   29   6   23   32   88
Oscar Villarreal       27   5.22   2   4 48   2   69.0   77   40 11   31   39   86
Franquelis Osoria       27   5.26   3   6 56   0   75.1   90   44   9   25   35   86
Greg Atencio         27   5.40   3   6 35   4   86.2   97   52 12   44   52   83
Heath Phillips*        27   5.73   5 10 36 17   121.0 145   77 18   50   54   79
Roman Colon           29   5.78   2   5 24   6   67.0   82   43 11   23   32   78
Devon Lowery         26   5.83   1   2 28   0   41.2   46   27   6   26   28   77

* - Throws Left

PITCHING MATRIX

Player           PO     TOP   MID   LOW           Comp1           Comp2           Comp3
SoriaJoakim       RP     98%    2%    0%      StreetHuston     NiedenfuerTom     EastwickRawly
MahayRon         RP     40%    46%    14%      OroscoJesse       FrymanWoodie     RemlingerMike
GreinkeZack       SP     51%    42%    8%    SandersonScott         NashJim         BenesAndy
MecheGil         SP     45%    49%    6%        CulpRay       PerezMelido         BenesAndy
RosaCarlos         SP     39%    47%    14%      PavanoCarl   ChristensonLarry     HutchinsonIra
BaleJohn         RP     18%    46%    36%        MurphyRob       MartinMorrie       GroomBuddy
HamulackTim       RP     19%    37%    43%        PooleJim       PainterLance         MahayRon
GobbleJimmy       RP     10%    36%    54%      NanceShane     HernandezWillie       RidgwayJeff
RamirezHoracio     RP       3%    36%    61%        KlinkJoe       MagnanteMike
PeraltaJoel       RP     11%    41%    48%        WilksTed       ReardonJeff       SutterBruce
FarnsworthKyle     RP       8%    36%    56%    Van PoppelTodd         CoreyMark         FieldNate
WaechterDoug       RP       5%    36%    59%      GrangerWayne       CarrollClay
WrightJamey       RP       3%    34%    63%    WickershamDave       LabineClem         MillerBob
TejedaRobinson     RP     12%    48%    40%        BentonAl       BiddleRocky     ThompsonJunior
YabutaYasuhiko     RP       5%    32%    63%        ElstonDon         HenryDoug         LarsenDon
BarreraHenry       RP       5%    27%    67%    GervacioSamuel       RogersBrian         SuzukiMac
VillarrealOscar     RP       3%    28%    70%      RlealSendy       BennettJeff         CoatesJim
BannisterBrian     SP       5%    40%    55%      ValdezIsmael       SanfordFred         BoutonJim
OsoriaFranquelis     RP       3%    27%    70%        ClayKen       WilhiteMatt       LaGrowLerrin
AtencioGreg       RP       1%    22%    77%      EyreWillie         HullEric     NunezVladimir
WoodBlake         SP       6%    33%    61%      StaffordBill         HookJay         GrantMark
DaviesKyle         SP       3%    33%    64%      CaldwellEarl       FloydGavin     WilliamsBrian
DuckworthBrandon     SP       3%    30%    67%        SlatonJim     JeffersonJesse       MorenoJulio
HochevarLuke       SP       2%    31%    67%      BoskieShawn         SlatonJim         RossBuck
PhillipsHeath       RP       0%    10%    90%    Van HekkenAndy       AlvarezOscar         ColeBert
ColonRoman         RP       1%    14%    86%      PopeJustin       ChildersMatt     RoweSchoolboy
DiNardoLenny       SP       2%    20%    78%        OttoDave     BennettDennis       WrightClyde
LoweryDevon       RP       2%    19%    79%      ShaferDavid         MootyJake       ChakalesBob
CortesDaniel       SP       1%    17%    81%      MahomesPat       DrabowskyMoe     TorresSalomon
PimentelJulio Cesar   SP       0%    12%    87%      FosterAlan       DaigleCasey       SanchezJose
WrightMatt         SP       0%    8%    92%      BouknightKip       TalbotFred         MecheGil

——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ 140+

Jacobs     7
Gordon     4
Kaaihue   2

OBP .400+

DeJesus   6
Kaaihue   3
Gordon     2

SLG .550+

Jacobs     7
Gordon     3
Guillen   2

BA .325+

Grudzielanek 13
Aviles       7
DeJesus     7

2B 45+

Teahen   33
Gordon   19
Aviles   14

3B 10+

DeJesus   18
Aviles     6
Teahen     5

HR 30+

Jacobs   31
Gordon     8
Kaaihue   8

SB 50+

Robinson   26
Murphy     3
Lisson     1

ERA+ 140+ (Starters)

Greinke   9
Rosa     5
Meche     4

ERA+ 140+ (Relievers)

Soria     93
Mahay     22
Peralta   5

K/9 9+ (Starters)

Greinke   21
Meche     2
Hochevar   2

K/9 9+ (Relievers)

Soria     64
Farnsworth 18
Mahay     16

BB/9 1.5- (Starters)

Greinke   1
Rosa     1

BB/9 1.5- (Relievers)

Peralta   7
Soria     7
Osoria     1

HR/9 0.7- (Starters)

Rosa     49
Meche     19
Davies   12

HR/9 0.7- (Relievers)

Soria     71
JWright   56
Barrera   25

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. 

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

 

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Dan Szymborski Posted: February 21, 2009 at 07:31 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: February 21, 2009 at 08:01 PM (#3082747)
At least Royals fans have Joakim Soria. He's a joy to watch.
   2. The District Attorney Posted: February 21, 2009 at 08:09 PM (#3082753)
Huh, nice projection for Carlos Rosa. Ummm... who's Carlos Rosa?

If Gordon and Butler put up those seasons, this franchise is in huge trouble.

They have Kala, not Kila, right?

Tug Hulett is 6 years old again.

I think Rany has mentioned this potential House/Pena platoon at C, it would be glorious.
   3. The District Attorney Posted: February 21, 2009 at 08:10 PM (#3082756)
Sorry, I meant they have Kila, not Kala. I can see how it gets confusing ;)
   4. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 21, 2009 at 08:10 PM (#3082757)
no, they have Kila.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 21, 2009 at 08:20 PM (#3082763)
Really like the new format!
   6. Walt Davis Posted: February 21, 2009 at 08:33 PM (#3082766)
Tug Hulett will always be 6 years old! But an 88 OPS+ at 6 sets off even my roid radar.

Nice to see TPJ has a 1% chance of not sucking.

Where's the defense in the new format? And I miss the "average" lines for the pitchers. I haven't decided if I miss the positional sort enough to whine about it.

I agree about the comments on Moore. Many odd moves for a franchise where they are.
   7. jfish26101 Posted: February 21, 2009 at 08:44 PM (#3082773)
Greinke isn't even close to what I expected.

Robinson Tejeda?
   8. jfish26101 Posted: February 21, 2009 at 08:45 PM (#3082774)
Scratch the Tejeda comment, I see him now.
   9. jfish26101 Posted: February 21, 2009 at 09:15 PM (#3082787)
Sure he has downside risk, so does Peavy or Santana or any other pitch. Greinke certainly isn't on par with them yet but he was pretty filthy last year with very good numbers two years in a row and was a top prospect in the minors. I'm just surprised to see him project out to be basically an average 3 when he pitched pretty close to what you expect out of ace of your staff the last season in a half. You can see progression in his numbers since 2005, I'm just surprised you are projecting regression...and a good bit of regression at that. I'll admit I'm biased having just completed a deal not long ago to bring Greinke to my team but I really expected something close to Kazmir like projection with less Ks and BBs. Just very surprised the last 300+ innings he has pitched isn't good enough after struggling as a 22 year old in 2005...can you tell I'm surprised? :D
   10. The District Attorney Posted: February 21, 2009 at 09:18 PM (#3082789)
Best comps:

David DeJesus: Johnny Damon. They wish!

Mark Grudzielanek: Frank White. They wish!

Tug Hulett: Dick McAuliffe. Only if he actually is six years old.

Willie Bloomquist: Rich Amaral. I can totally see this (even if Amaral did get more than one extra-base hit per year.)

Tony Pena Jr.: Mario Mendoza. Bullseye!

Carlos Rosa: Carl Pavano. Well, cancel the excitement then.

Joel Peralta: Two guys who combined for 667 saves. Hmm.

Brian Bannister: The obvious comparison is his fellow intellectual Jim Bouton, but I like Fred Sanford. He's comin', 'Lizbeth! He's comin'!!
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 21, 2009 at 10:34 PM (#3082821)
Pitching projections seem awfully pessimistic. I'll be quite surprised if Greinke puts up an ERA over 4.00, or if Hochevar or Davies are quite that awful. Then again, this defense is going to be pretty terrible, at least at all positions other than left and centerfield.

Really surprised Gordon is "average" defensively. Most metrics I've seen have him as quite terrible.

JR House projection is interesting. Too bad he won't get a single at bat in KC, while Buck and Olivo combine for a .300 OBA for about $6 million combined.

Tony Pena couldn't hold Mario Mendoza's jock.
   12. devil_fingers Posted: February 21, 2009 at 11:03 PM (#3082830)
Dan -- love the new matrices. I have other comments at the Royals Review thread that I don't want to bore people with here.
   13. Greg K Posted: February 21, 2009 at 11:16 PM (#3082834)
You probably see about 100 more Royals games a year than me, but in the 5 or 6 times I've seen Gordon he looked ok out there.

For what it's worth UZR has Gordon at +2.3 runs/150 over 2300 innings.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: February 22, 2009 at 01:27 AM (#3082878)
I should say I like the new format overall. I'd recommend adding age to the offensive matrix -- helps put those comps into better perspective (Grudz = Larkin! :-)
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 22, 2009 at 02:20 AM (#3082894)
Uh Dan, Coco Crisp says he's going to steal 40 bases this year, so you may want to up his "caught stealing" total.
   16. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: February 22, 2009 at 02:28 AM (#3082897)
Dan, I think this format is the winner.

The cause for pessism on Grienke is that home run rate. It's a higher rate than any season since his rookie year (excluding his six inning 2006) and the walls at Kaufman have moved back since that season. That's rather curious.
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 22, 2009 at 03:00 AM (#3082905)
I like the new format a lot.
   18. thinkmaui Posted: February 22, 2009 at 03:40 AM (#3082916)
PECOTA has Greinke with the 15th best projection in baseball among SP's for 2009, and there really isn't that big a difference between ZIPS and PECOTA. PECOTA is giving him three more starts and around 24 more IP, and has Greinke giving up a few less total earned runs. The two projections are actually very similar, it's just that PECOTA's is a little easier on the eyes I suppose.

I'll take the over on Greinke. I like his chances to beat both projections. He's a better pitcher than Kazmir too, if for no other reason than he actually gets to the 6th inning without having thrown 100+ pitches. For what it's worth, Alex Fernandez and Kevin Appier are among his comparables via the PECOTA system.

Great format by the way. I'm on board...
   19. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: February 22, 2009 at 03:43 AM (#3082918)
The first six hitters on Dan's list are essentially the same hitter. Kinda interesting.

The Red Sox or Yankees aren't able to do a whole lot of high-risk plays.
Except that, of course they are. It's just that on their budgets, they're different kinds of high risks.

I agree about the comments on Moore. Many odd moves for a franchise where they are.
I don't think those moves are odd, simply because I think management is perfectly content to threaten to break .500 once in a while. That's their division title: an 82-80 record, a couple of times a decade. I suspect the Royals FO equates risk with "OMG, what if we fail and go 50-112?" And it's clear enough they don't have the smarts to be able to motor along at 70 wins while stockpiling young talent that might all break out at the same time.
   20. Mike Webber Posted: February 22, 2009 at 04:06 AM (#3082927)
Dan,
Count me among the admirers of the new format!
Give me the over on Crip and I'll parlay that with the under on JR House. What's the payout on that 9 to 5 right?
   21. frannyzoo Posted: February 22, 2009 at 03:45 PM (#3083056)
Agreed on the format. It's a right purty format for a right ugly team there. And I'll take the under on the Meche ERA+, mostly out of M's fan spite, I admit.
   22. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: February 22, 2009 at 04:34 PM (#3083078)
Very much agreed on new format.
   23. thetailor Posted: February 23, 2009 at 03:52 AM (#3083372)
What happened to Billy Butler's upside?
   24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 23, 2009 at 03:50 PM (#3083547)
What happened to Billy Butler's upside?

Donuts are delicious.
   25. Dan Posted: February 23, 2009 at 04:07 PM (#3083562)
Love the new format.

It's amazing that a team that's had high draft picks for so long hasn't really developed a "star" level talent since Beltran. Just a thoroughly mediocre team.
   26. villageidiom Posted: February 23, 2009 at 11:17 PM (#3084097)
The Red Sox or Yankees aren't able to do a whole lot of high-risk plays.

Except that, of course they are. It's just that on their budgets, they're different kinds of high risks.
I was about to disagree, but mostly on semantics. You're right.

I think Dan is saying the Red Sox can't afford to carry on their roster all year long a player about whom they're unclear whether he's high upside or crap. (In this sense, as in most, risk=variance.) They need to be reasonably certain of what they're getting, even if it's mediocrity. The Royals, however, can put a high-risk prospect on the MLB roster to see what they've got. There's no sense blocking him with a veteran mediocrity this year, because they'll have the same question about their prospect next year and be no closer to getting their answer.

Boston's high-risk players are generally high-risk with regard to health (and thus playing time), not quality. For that reason they've stockpiled a bunch of such starting pitchers, with the hopes that any five of them will be active at a given time. The starting pitchers they seek, while high-risk for health, are generally low-risk for quality. Again, they can't take a high risk on quality.
   27. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: February 24, 2009 at 05:13 PM (#3084623)
What happened to Billy Butler's upside?

Donuts are delicious.


I guess that would also explain his backside.
   28. NBarnes Posted: February 25, 2009 at 07:43 PM (#3086129)
Boston's high-risk players are generally high-risk with regard to health (and thus playing time), not quality. For that reason they've stockpiled a bunch of such starting pitchers, with the hopes that any five of them will be active at a given time. The starting pitchers they seek, while high-risk for health, are generally low-risk for quality. Again, they can't take a high risk on quality.


Thus; J.D. Drew, Penny, Smoltz, Shilling, and to a lesser extent, Beckett. This is why the Wily Mo Pena trade was a little weird by Boston's standards. Also, sometimes it doesn't work; see also, Gagne, Eric.
   29. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 26, 2009 at 04:22 PM (#3086950)
Hey Dan? You know how I periodically request a projection for some semi-to-really obscure guy, preferably one who's primarily played in some non-domestic leagues?
Would you consider doing one for RHP Federico Castaneda? He's a deep, deep, deep sleeper to make the Royals pen who's put up decent numbers in Mexico (has yet to play in the states, likely to open in AA).
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 26, 2009 at 04:33 PM (#3086963)
Would you consider doing one for RHP Federico Castaneda? He's a deep, deep, deep sleeper to make the Royals pen who's put up decent numbers in Mexico (has yet to play in the states, likely to open in AA).


I'll project him, but I'll still shout curses of your name that will shake the very foundations of Asgard.

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