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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, November 15, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers

Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier combined to lead the Dodgers to the playoffs, which reflects well on Ned Colletti, even if he put as many barriers in front of the latter playing as possible.  The real challenge for Colletti is this offseason, with two of the most important pitchers he inherited, Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, both gone and a infield that isn’t championship quality.  The team was apparently short on cash this season, but a lot of contracts come off the books and Colletti will still have more money to play with than any other team in the division.  However, if his starter and infield signings turn out as badly as the Pierre and Jones signings in the outfield, Colletti’s fortunes could change very quickly.  The team also needs to jettison the Martin-to-3B idea - with the Dodgers’ spare catching prospect an All-Star playing for Tampa Bay, actually resting Martin once in a while might be the better idea.

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CATCHERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

EXCELLENT
Russell Martin       c   26 .281 .374 .430 154 540 85 152 31 2 15 72 76 82 16 7   Av

FAIR
A.J. Ellis           c   28 .248 .330 .363 92 314 37 78 14 2 6 34 34 46 0 3   Vg

POOR
Gary Bennett         c   37 .237 .284 .350 32 80   7 19 3 0 2   8   6   8 0 0   Fr
Danny Ardoin         c   34 .209 .282 .302 70 182 19 38 8 0 3 16 14 57 1 0   Vg

————————————————————————————————————————————————-
FIRST BASEMEN
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

AVERAGE
James Loney*        1b 25 .295 .347 .456 159 594 67 175 36 6 16 82 48 86 5 2 Av
Casey Blake         3b 35 .277 .346 .458 145 528 68 146 32 2 20 80 49 113 4 2 Av
————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Nomar Garciaparra     ss 35 .278 .334 .420 84 295 38 82 15 0 9 39 24 24 2 1 Av

POOR
John Lindsey         1b 32 .254 .320 .427 108 389 46 99 20 1 15 56 30 71 0 0 Av
Terry Tiffee#        3b 30 .270 .308 .386 97 370 39 100 20 1 7 42 19 48 0 1 Av
Mark Sweeney*        1b 39 .220 .311 .303 91 132 13 29 6 1 1 11 16 31 1 0 Fr
Kevin Howard*        2b 28 .240 .293 .350 93 329 34 79 13 1 7 35 24 48 4 4 Av
Joshua Bell#        3b 22 .228 .277 .367 93 360 39 82 15 1 11 43 25 79 5 2 Fr
Austin Gallagher*      3b 20 .224 .270 .361 86 352 30 79 24 0 8 39 23 73 1 6 Fr
Danny Ardoin         c   34 .209 .282 .302 70 182 19 38 8 0 3 16 14 57 1 0 Fr

————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

VERY GOOD
Jeff Kent           2b 41 .281 .342 .427 111 405 47 114 24 1 11 53 33 49 0 1 Fr

FAIR
Blake Dewitt*        3b 23 .255 .312 .401 143 521 57 133 24 2 16 67 43 75 4 1 Fr

POOR
Tony Abreu           2b 24 .264 .304 .368 96 345 43 91 23 2 3 34 17 48 3 1 Av
Ivan DeJesus         ss 22 .254 .317 .337 135 511 70 130 19 1 7 50 46 75 16 3 Av
Chin-lung Hu         ss 25 .255 .290 .370 129 427 56 109 19 3 8 47 21 52 8 2 Vg
Angel Chavez         3b 27 .254 .290 .370 120 457 50 116 23 0 10 51 21 75 5 3 Fr
Angel Berroa         ss 31 .251 .296 .349 117 398 43 100 19 1 6 40 20 69 3 2 Fr
Luis Maza           2b 29 .251 .302 .340 94 303 34 76 11 2 4 28 20 46 2 2 Fr
Kevin Howard*        2b 28 .240 .293 .350 93 329 34 79 13 1 7 35 24 48 4 4 Fr
Jaime Pedroza#        3b 22 .227 .272 .347 130 502 61 114 23 2 11 54 25 24 14 6 Fr

————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

VERY GOOD
Russell Martin       c   26 .281 .374 .430 154 540 85 152 31 2 15 72 76 82 16 7 Fr
Casey Blake         3b 35 .277 .346 .458 145 528 68 146 32 2 20 80 49 113 4 2 Fr

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————-
Nomar Garciaparra     ss 35 .278 .334 .420 84 295 38 82 15 0 9 39 24 24 2 1 Fr

POOR
Blake Dewitt*        3b 23 .255 .312 .401 143 521 57 133 24 2 16 67 43 75 4 1 Vg
Terry Tiffee#        3b 30 .270 .308 .386 97 370 39 100 20 1 7 42 19 48 0 1 Fr
Tony Abreu           2b 24 .264 .304 .368 96 345 43 91 23 2 3 34 17 48 3 1 Av
Chin-lung Hu         ss 25 .255 .290 .370 129 427 56 109 19 3 8 47 21 52 8 2 Vg
Angel Chavez         3b 27 .254 .290 .370 120 457 50 116 23 0 10 51 21 75 5 3 Av
Angel Berroa         ss 31 .251 .296 .349 117 398 43 100 19 1 6 40 20 69 3 2 Fr
Luis Maza           2b 29 .251 .302 .340 94 303 34 76 11 2 4 28 20 46 2 2 Av
Kevin Howard*        2b 28 .240 .293 .350 93 329 34 79 13 1 7 35 24 48 4 4 Fr
Joshua Bell#        3b 22 .228 .277 .367 93 360 39 82 15 1 11 43 25 79 5 2 Pr
Austin Gallagher*      3b 20 .224 .270 .361 86 352 30 79 24 0 8 39 23 73 1 6 Fr

————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

EXCELLENT
Rafael Furcal#        ss 31 .286 .358 .411 105 433 72 124 22 4 8 52 48 57 22 5 Av

VERY GOOD
Nomar Garciaparra     ss 35 .278 .334 .420 84 295 38 82 15 0 9 39 24 24 2 1 Fr

FAIR
Tony Abreu           2b 24 .264 .304 .368 96 345 43 91 23 2 3 34 17 48 3 1 Fr
Ivan DeJesus         ss 22 .254 .317 .337 135 511 70 130 19 1 7 50 46 75 16 3 Av
Chin-lung Hu         ss 25 .255 .290 .370 129 427 56 109 19 3 8 47 21 52 8 2 Vg
Angel Chavez         3b 27 .254 .290 .370 120 457 50 116 23 0 10 51 21 75 5 3 Fr

POOR
Angel Berroa         ss 31 .251 .296 .349 117 398 43 100 19 1 6 40 20 69 3 2 Fr
Luis Maza           2b 29 .251 .302 .340 94 303 34 76 11 2 4 28 20 46 2 2 Fr
Jaime Pedroza#        3b 22 .227 .272 .347 130 502 61 114 23 2 11 54 25 24 14 6 Pr

——————————————————————————————————————————————————
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
——————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS LF RF

EXCELLENT
Manny Ramirez         lf 37 .297 .394 .521 136 495 77 147 25 1 28 91 74 110 1 0 Pr  

VERY GOOD
Andre Ethier*        rf 27 .292 .363 .475 148 497 73 145 32 4 17 75 53 87 3 3 Av Av
Matt Kemp           cf 24 .295 .342 .477 150 555 87 164 34 5 19 83 40 124 28 9     Av
James Loney*        1b 25 .295 .347 .456 159 594 67 175 36 6 16 82 48 86 5 2     Av
Casey Blake         3b 35 .277 .346 .458 145 528 68 146 32 2 20 80 49 113 4 2     Av

FAIR
John Lindsey         1b 32 .254 .320 .427 108 389 46 99 20 1 15 56 30 71 0 0 Fr  

POOR
John-Ford Griffin*    lf 29 .238 .302 .412 103 369 44 88 18 2 14 51 33 92 2 1 Fr Fr
Xavier Paul*        cf 24 .260 .312 .384 122 469 61 122 21 2 11 56 34 101 21 6 Av Av
Terry Tiffee#        3b 30 .270 .308 .386 97 370 39 100 20 1 7 42 19 48 0 1 Fr  
Juan Pierre*        cf 31 .282 .325 .346 138 532 68 150 19 6 1 46 29 32 48 13 Vg  
Delwyn Young#        rf 27 .249 .297 .390 124 385 45 96 25 1 9 46 26 82 2 2 Pr Pr
Jason Repko         cf 28 .235 .308 .341 104 323 42 76 14 1 6 33 25 73 15 3 Vg Vg
Jamie Hoffmann       rf 24 .245 .295 .366 129 489 54 120 18 1 13 56 34 69 25 8 Av Av
Luis Maza           2b 29 .251 .302 .340 94 303 34 76 11 2 4 28 20 46 2 2 Av Av

————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

VERY GOOD
Matt Kemp           cf 24 .295 .342 .477 150 555 87 164 34 5 19 83 40 124 28 9 Av

AVERAGE
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Andruw Jones         cf 32 .225 .318 .428 115 395 59 89 18 1 20 61 48 104 3 0 Fr

FAIR
Xavier Paul*        cf 24 .260 .312 .384 122 469 61 122 21 2 11 56 34 101 21 6 Av
Juan Pierre*        cf 31 .282 .325 .346 138 532 68 150 19 6 1 46 29 32 48 13 Av

POOR
Jason Repko         cf 28 .235 .308 .341 104 323 42 76 14 1 6 33 25 73 15 3 Av
Jamie Hoffmann       rf 24 .245 .295 .366 129 489 54 120 18 1 13 56 34 69 25 8 Fr
Luis Maza           2b 29 .251 .302 .340 94 303 34 76 11 2 4 28 20 46 2 2 Fr

* - Hits Left
# - Switch-Hitter

—————————————————————————————————————————-
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K

TOP THIRD
Chad Billingsley       24   3.35 15   8 33 33   204.0 186   76 14   73 195
Derek Lowe           36   3.73 13 10 31 30   193.0 195   80 17   50 130
Hiroki Kuroda         34   3.84 10   8 29 29   171.0 177   73 14   42 103

MIDDLE THIRD
Clayton Kershaw*      21   4.21   8   8 32 31   154.0 149   72 15   67 123
Brad Penny           31   4.47   8 10 26 25   149.0 163   74 15   50   94
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Greg Maddux           43   4.53 10 11 30 30   177.0 204   89 19   26   82
Jason Schmidt         36   4.64   3   3 12 12   64.0   66   33   9   26   53

BOTTOM THIRD
Eric Stults*          29   5.12   6 10 24 22   130.0 149   74 19   47   85
Jason Johnson         35   5.13   7 10 29 21   144.0 169   82 20   44   83
Heath Totten         30   5.42   5   8 22 16   98.0 126   59 13   23   40
James McDonald         24   5.46   6 11 30 27   140.0 153   85 27   53 100
Miguel Pinango         26   6.00   5 10 25 24   129.0 159   86 24   45   66
Mario Alvarez         25   6.27   3   8 19 13   79.0   95   55 11   44   37
Justin Orenduff       26   6.80   2   7 22 17   86.0 105   65 20   42   57

—————————————————————————————————————————-
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K

TOP THIRD
Takashi Saito         39   2.25   4   1 47   0   48.0   32   12   3   14   57
Jonathan Broxton       25   2.78   6   2 78   0   81.0   64   25   5   29 101
Hong-chih Kuo*        27   2.92   5   2 34   6   71.0   57   23   5   27   83

MIDDLE THIRD
Joe Beimel*          32   3.29   4   2 74   0   63.0   63   23   2   22   35
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Cory Wade           26   4.30   2   3 54   1   90.0   91   43 15   23   59
Scott Proctor         32   4.37   3   4 65   0   70.0   67   34 10   34   68
Ramon Troncoso         26   4.38   4   5 51   0   74.0   81   36   5   26   43

BOTTOM THIRD
Mike Koplove         32   4.50   2   3 49   0   60.0   62   30   7   24   41
Chan Ho Park         36   4.57   2   3 52   0   65.0   68   33 10   24   51
Scott Elbert*        23   5.06   2   2 22   2   32.0   31   18   4   19   29
Dwayne Pollok         28   5.51   4   7 48   6   98.0 122   60 15   23   40
Yhency Brazoban       29   5.68   0   1 18   0   19.0   21   12   3   8   14
Greg Miller*          24   5.82   2   3 45   5   65.0   65   42   5   71   50
B.J. LaMura           28   5.88   3   5 31   6   75.0   84   49 12   39   51

* - Throws Left

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Andre Ethier
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .292 .363 .475 148 497 73 145 32 4 17 75 53 87 3 3 117

Offense %
STAR   53
AVG   75
REP LV 96

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   1     >.400   9     >10   4     >200   0
>140   10     >.375   34     >5     30     >150   62
>120   42     >.350   70
>100   83     >.325   93     2B     %
>80   98     >.300   99     >45   6
>60   100               >30   79

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   1     >.550   7     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   9     >.500   28     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   34     >.450   65     >30   6     >30   0
>.275   69     >.400   91     >20   38     >10   8
>.250   94     >.350   98     >10   91

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Harold Baines, Wally Moon

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Matt Kemp
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .295 .342 .477 150 555 87 164 34 5 19 83 40 124 28 9 111

Offense %
STAR   55
AVG   87
REP LV 99

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   1     >10   4     >200   0
>140   5     >.375   12     >5     28     >150   77
>120   30     >.350   40
>100   69     >.325   72     2B     %
>80   94     >.300   92     >45   12
>60   100               >30   67

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   8     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   11     >.500   29     >40   0     >50   8
>.300   38     >.450   63     >30   6     >30   48
>.275   71     >.400   90     >20   40     >10   96
>.250   92     >.350   99     >10   90

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Andre Dawson, Tommie Agee

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Chad Billinglsey

              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       3.35 15   8 33 33 204 186   76 14   73 195   129

ERA   %
Top 1/3 72
Mid 1/3 16
Bot 1/3 12

ERA+  %    BB/9   %
>150   28

<1.5 2
>

140   36

<2.0 6
>

130   44

<2.5 18
>

120   55

<3.0 37
>

110   67

<3.5 54
>

100   79

<4.0 72
>

90   87
>80   93     HR/9   %
>70   97     <0.5 19
<1.0 80
K/9 % <1.5 97
>9     33     <2.0 100
>8     59
>7     80
>6     92

Top Near-Age Comps: Steve Busby, Burt Hooton

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Clayton Kershaw
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       4.27   8   8 27 26 154 150   73 16   65 124   102

ERA   %
Top 1/3 37
Mid 1/3 31
Bot 1/3 32

ERA+  %    BB/9   %
>150   6     <1.5 1
>140   8     <2.0 5
>130   13     <2.5 8
>120   21     <3.0 20
>110   33     <3.5 40
>100   47     <4.0 53
>90   65
>80   82     HR/9   %
>70   93     <0.5 6
<1.0 58
K/9 % <1.5 92
>9     5     <2.0 100
>8     22
>7     51
>6     67

Top Near-Age Comps: Ray Sadecki, Dave McNally

——————————————————————-

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. 

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2008 at 08:08 PM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 15, 2008 at 09:14 PM (#3009914)
I'm interested in seeing whether DeWitt's September - 282/410/462/872 with 4 homers and 14 unintentional walks - was real.
ZiPS certainly doesn't think so.
   2. Tripon Posted: November 15, 2008 at 09:16 PM (#3009915)
Where's Billingsley?
   3. flournoy Posted: November 15, 2008 at 09:19 PM (#3009918)
Tough to see Maddux ranked behind some dude I've never heard of before.
   4. ckash Posted: November 15, 2008 at 09:20 PM (#3009919)
Chad Billingsley?
   5. ckash Posted: November 15, 2008 at 09:22 PM (#3009923)
okay, Chad's under the spotlight but not grouped with the rest of the starting pitchers.
   6. DosRafaels Posted: November 15, 2008 at 09:23 PM (#3009924)
Dan,

Don't forget that Meloan was traded to the Indians in the Blake deal.
   7. Juan V Posted: November 15, 2008 at 09:33 PM (#3009929)
Excuse me if this is a stupid question, but are the projections means, medians, or what?
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2008 at 09:44 PM (#3009934)
Excuse me if this is a stupid question, but are the projections means, medians, or what?


Essentially, a weighted mean.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 15, 2008 at 10:01 PM (#3009944)
Is there a reason John Ford Griffin hasn't caught on as a 4th OF anywhere?
   10. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: November 15, 2008 at 10:14 PM (#3009948)
Assuming Ramirez and Furcal leave, I have trouble seeing this team winning any more than 81 games. Assuming Loney/Ethier/Kemp are the 1B/LF/RF, those are basically three average bats for corners. Martin is the only guy who is an elite hitter for his position. Meanwhile, CF (Pierre or Jones) is a blackhole, while 2B, SS, and 3B lack an internal option that can provide even average production for the positions.

Below average offense plus slightly above average pitching equals a .500 team at best, in my opinion.

Dan, was the BJ Lamura line a typo? I only ask because it seems very optimistic and is identical to Brad Penny's.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2008 at 10:25 PM (#3009955)
I better check on LaMura - i have his translations as 6.16, 6.23, and 6.49 the last three years.
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2008 at 10:29 PM (#3009957)
OK, fixed.
   13. Tripon Posted: November 15, 2008 at 11:06 PM (#3009975)
10. The Dodgers were on a .500 clip before Manny were traded to the team, and for a good chunk when Furcal was injured.

The 2009 Dodgers can win 82 games as currently constructed. However, I am not sure that will be enough to win the NL west.
   14. flournoy Posted: November 16, 2008 at 12:18 AM (#3009999)
Bah, now my comment in #3 doesn't make any sense.
   15. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: November 16, 2008 at 01:32 AM (#3010020)
Tripon, don't forget that in addition to likely losing Ramirez and Furcal, the Dodgers are likely to lose Lowe and Penny (although they won't miss his 2008 performance, they could use his 2009 projection). And they'll be losing Garciaparra and Kent, which isn't devastating but the internal replacements will likely underperform what they gave the Dodgers in 2008.

Now the Dodgers might make some additions through trades or free agent signings (although with Colletti's track record, it's questionable whether any personnel additions will be beneficial). But "as the roster is currently constructed" I don't see how they project to be anything more than a .500 team.
   16. Darren Posted: November 16, 2008 at 02:14 AM (#3010030)
I'm surprised that it's so common to see poor to fair fielders showing up as Very Good and Excellent overall.

I love this, BTW:

SS
VERY GOOD
Nomar Garciaparra

I've thought for the past several years that teams have overreacted to his injury risk and defensive struggles. Someone should plunk at SS for all the games that he is able to play. They'll get a pretty good player out of it. LA could do a lot worse.
   17. AROM Posted: November 16, 2008 at 02:16 AM (#3010031)
Is there a reason John Ford Griffin hasn't caught on as a 4th OF anywhere?


Yes, he hits like a 4th outfielder and fields like a DH. That combination is a 4 letter word, containing a series of the letter A.
   18. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 16, 2008 at 02:23 AM (#3010034)
I've thought for the past several years that teams have overreacted to his injury risk and defensive struggles. Someone should plunk at SS for all the games that he is able to play. They'll get a pretty good player out of it. LA could do a lot worse.
Last season, Nomar got 29 starts (106 ABs) at short, and he hit... 236/270/396/666. His Range Factor was below average, too.
   19. caprules Posted: November 16, 2008 at 02:27 AM (#3010036)
Darren, I may be understanding you, but as I understand it there isn't an overall ranking in the ZiPs projections. There is one ranking for their offense and one for their defense.

I do think it would be fantastic to see a single overall projection with offense and defense included measured in total runs, but I don't know if the defensive ratings here are specific enough to do so.
   20. akrasian Posted: November 16, 2008 at 02:47 AM (#3010040)
I'm interested in seeing whether DeWitt's September - 282/410/462/872 with 4 homers and 14 unintentional walks - was real.
ZiPS certainly doesn't think so.


Yeah, I was surprised that his projection was worse than his age 22 season. I know that the formulas shouldn't be ignored if we don't like the projection, and he was less than stellar coming through the system - but he also produced acceptably overall last season in 421 plate appearances, and will be a year older. I would take the over on the projection, personally.
   21. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 16, 2008 at 02:57 AM (#3010044)
Bill James has DeWitt at 261/344/383/728.
That sounds more realistic.
   22. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 16, 2008 at 03:01 AM (#3010047)
If a bit low on the power end.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 16, 2008 at 04:28 AM (#3010068)
Bill James is super-optimistic - when I looked at the projections they came up with a few years ago, he had the majority of starters being better than average at every single position.
   24. Darren Posted: November 16, 2008 at 05:04 AM (#3010075)
Dan, is #19 correct? When a player is listed in the category "VERY GOOD," does that refer only to his offense? If so, I think you should rethink the presentation of these stats. The way it is set up here it makes it look like listing of players who are "VERY GOOD" overall. Part of the problem is that the player names, not just their offensive stats, fall under these categories (visually) and another part of the problem is that defensive rating (again visually) falls within these categories. I'd recommend that you change the listings so that the offense ratings are a column just like the defensive ratings.
   25. Darren Posted: November 16, 2008 at 05:07 AM (#3010077)
Last season, Nomar got 29 starts (106 ABs) at short, and he hit... 236/270/396/666. His Range Factor was below average, too.


Those 106 ABs are a pretty tiny sample. I doubt such splits mean anything.

And Range Factor?
   26. Tripon Posted: November 16, 2008 at 05:12 AM (#3010078)
Nomar's range factor was even worse than Angel Berroa's was.
   27. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 16, 2008 at 05:52 AM (#3010084)
Bill James is super-optimistic - when I looked at the projections they came up with a few years ago, he had the majority of starters being better than average at every single position.

If "average" includes backups, isn't it plausible that the majority of starters are better than average?
   28. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 16, 2008 at 05:59 AM (#3010086)
If "average" includes backups, isn't it plausible that the majority of starters are better than average?

I'm talking about compared to starters, even. Compared to backups, it would've been even nuttier.
   29. Gaelan Posted: November 16, 2008 at 06:43 AM (#3010089)
Dan, is #19 correct? When a player is listed in the category "VERY GOOD," does that refer only to his offense? If so, I think you should rethink the presentation of these stats. The way it is set up here it makes it look like listing of players who are "VERY GOOD" overall. Part of the problem is that the player names, not just their offensive stats, fall under these categories (visually) and another part of the problem is that defensive rating (again visually) falls within these categories. I'd recommend that you change the listings so that the offense ratings are a column just like the defensive ratings.


Totally disagree. These are offensive projections and everyone knows that this is what they are. The defensive rating is just an addendum.
   30. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 16, 2008 at 11:49 AM (#3010114)
That seems impossible, Dan. Like Lake Wobegon, where all the children are above average. Perhaps Bill mis-calculated his average, but if so, all you have to do is take the average of his projections and set that as your baseline, no?

Also, there's no way a projection system can be "optimistic" or "pessimistic" assuming it's remotely well-constructed, meaning that the pitching totals and hitting totals balance (i.e., total H for batters equal total H for pitchers, total RC for batters equal total RA for pitchers, etc.) As long as that's the case, you've got a league average (RA/ERA/OBP/SLG), and you determine each player's value based on that average. If the system seems "optimistic" for hitters, then it just means it's projecting a high run environment, and it should then seem "pessimistic" for pitchers, and vice versa.

The other issue is the standard deviation, or how much regression to the mean the system includes--in other words, is Pujols projected to a 155 OPS+ or a 170? But that works both ways--if it's a low-regression, high-stdev system that's projecting Pujols to 170, then for the league totals to add up, it also has to be projecting crap players to put up OPS+ scores in the 50's, say, rather than in the 60's.
   31. Darren Posted: November 16, 2008 at 01:44 PM (#3010118)
These are offensive projections and everyone knows that this is what they are.


Everyone but me apparently. It would take nothing away from these ratings to label them a bit more intuitively.
   32. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 16, 2008 at 02:22 PM (#3010122)
Bill James is super-optimistic - when I looked at the projections they came up with a few years ago, he had the majority of starters being better than average at every single position.

If "average" includes backups, isn't it plausible that the majority of starters are better than average?

I'm talking about compared to starters, even. Compared to backups, it would've been even nuttier.


I'm confused -- neither the first nor last time. If the "average" at a position includes the performance of starters and backups at that position, wouldn't you expect more than half of the starters to be better than that average?
   33. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 16, 2008 at 03:19 PM (#3010127)
Sorry, meant less nutty compared to backups, it was late.
   34. RollingWave Posted: November 17, 2008 at 06:50 AM (#3010505)
The Dodgers have 3 RP that's better than most of the closers in the league. yikes

It's amusing that for the last few years the Dodgers have had an amazing swarm of young talents but never seem to really break out of it. they need just *1* truely great vet to go along with those kids and they be awsome.
   35. jwb Posted: November 17, 2008 at 04:13 PM (#3010625)
Lots of MiLB FAs here. John Lindsey, Luis Maza, John-Ford Griffin, Mike Koplove, B.J. Lamura, Miguel Pinango, Heath Totten. Org depth guys mostly, but still guys that have to be resigned/replaced if they want to have have any org depth in case somebody tweaks a hammy or strains an oblique. Colletti et al. have some work to do.

they need just *1* truely great vet to go along with those kids and they be awsome.
1) You slept through the last two months of the season
2) Monday AM, my irony filter is working at less than 100% efficiency after subjecting myself to sub-McCarverian football commentary

John-Ford Griffin's skillset would pay him about 35x AAA scale in Japan.
   36. RollingWave Posted: November 17, 2008 at 05:55 PM (#3010698)
1) You slept through the last two months of the season

I didn't, and that's exactly my point, they could either use Manny or someone of similar caliber (say.. Mark Teixeira and then trade Loney) and they're set, espically in that division where only the D-back are going to be semi competitive in the next few season
   37. jwb Posted: November 18, 2008 at 03:21 AM (#3011279)
RollingWave, I beg your apology. Signing Ramirez or Teixeira (and trading Loney) are both fine ideas. Middle infield and overall depth also need to be addressed.
   38. StillFlash Posted: November 19, 2008 at 04:21 PM (#3012270)
OK, this might not be a biggee, but Jaime Pedroza, you have him 25 bb 24 k, I have him projected 29 bb 117 k - is your 24 k's a typo?
   39. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 19, 2008 at 04:28 PM (#3012274)
Oops, there's a 1 missing.
   40. zenbitz Posted: November 20, 2008 at 12:54 AM (#3012721)
I have another req. Dan. Because the stats you project are not normalized, it makes us suffer to try to compare players for off season trades and what not.

Could we have an OPS+/ERA+ or other similar park/league adjusted column?
   41. xeifrank Posted: November 21, 2008 at 11:22 PM (#3014083)
Like you did last year, could you please put a link to each of the previous teams ZIPS you have posted within each new ZIPS post?

Thanks!
vr, Xei
   42. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 25, 2009 at 10:24 PM (#3332784)
Player Spotlight - Clayton Kershaw
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.27 8 8 27 26 154 150 73 16 65 124 102
ZiPS nailed Kershaw's record (for the moment, anyway). The rest, not so much.

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