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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, October 23, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

The Sabathia trade paid off very nicely in the short-term for the Brewers.  While it’s obviously disappointing that the

Phillies proceeded to eliminate the Brewers in 4 games, the Brewers should still be proud of the season they had.

The Brewers have a few challenges this offseason, but the offense shouldn’t be one of them.  Fielder and Braun are two of

the best young players in the game, Hardy took another step forward to that tier below Jose Reyes/Hanley Ramirez, and while

both were a bit disappointing, both Weeks and Hart are important contributors.

Replacing Sabathia and Sheets, on the other hand, is a major challenge.  If there ever was a time for the team to seriously

open up their wallet, it’s now, with both crucial for the rotation.  I like a healthy Yovani Gallardo a lot, but it’s too

much to ask him to replace one of the top two starters.  Milwaukee’s best chance to bring one back is probably Ben Sheets -

with a few huge names on the starting market, perhaps the injury risk will cause him to fall under the radar a bit.

I’m trying out a new report format (explanation down at the bottom), so any feedback is appreciated.

————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CATCHERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS CThr

VERY GOOD
Angel Salome         c   23 .277 .314 .429 101 382 48 106 23 1 11 51 20 53 2 1   Fr

FAIR
Jason Kendall         c   35 .262 .337 .328 129 458 49 120 22 1 2 39 41 45 6 3   Fr
Jonathan Lucroy       c   23 .237 .294 .382 130 503 55 119 22 0 17 66 40 81 7 3   Av
Vinny Rottino         c   29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 8 5   Fr
Michael Rivera       c   32 .234 .283 .388 65 214 20 50 9 0 8 29 12 40 3 2   Av

POOR
Lou Palmisano         c   26 .221 .296 .336 78 271 27 60 13 0 6 29 26 50 2 1   Av
Carlos Corporan#      c   25 .228 .271 .365 78 263 24 60 15 0 7 32 11 47 2 2   Vg

————————————————————————————————————————————————-
FIRST BASEMEN
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

EXCELLENT
Prince Fielder*      1b 25 .285 .388 .569 162 594 100 169 33 2 44 129 91 127 3 2 Fr

AVERAGE
Russell Branyan*      3b 33 .234 .330 .460 92 239 32 56 12 0 14 42 33 78 3 0 Av

POOR
Jay Gibbons*        rf 32 .266 .317 .435 59 207 22 55 14 0 7 29 15 34 0 0 Fr
Joe Dillon           3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 2 2 Av
Mike Lamb*          3b 33 .268 .330 .389 98 265 35 71 13 2 5 32 25 38 1 1 Fr
Brad Nelson*        1b 26 .239 .319 .395 141 451 56 108 26 1 14 59 51 89 9 6 Av
Taylor Green*        3b 22 .243 .304 .391 128 486 46 118 21 0 17 65 41 66 2 5 Av
Vinny Rottino         c   29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 8 5 Fr
Michael Rivera       c   32 .234 .283 .388 65 214 20 50 9 0 8 29 12 40 3 2 Fr
Carlos Corporan#      c   25 .228 .271 .365 78 263 24 60 15 0 7 32 11 47 2 2 Av
Chris Woodward       ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 2 1 Vg

————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

VERY GOOD
Rickie Weeks         2b 26 .246 .359 .409 124 452 89 111 22 5 14 61 65 118 21 5 Fr

AVERAGE
Bill Hall           3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 5 5 Fr

FAIR
Joe Dillon           3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 2 2 Pr
Ray Durham#          2b 37 .235 .326 .357 108 336 46 79 21 1 6 36 45 64 7 2 Fr
Taylor Green*        3b 22 .243 .304 .391 128 486 46 118 21 0 17 65 41 66 2 5 Fr

POOR
Adam Heether         3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 5 3 Fr
Callix Crabbe#        2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 14 10 Av
Craig Counsell*      ss 38 .218 .331 .282 96 220 25 48 11 0 1 18 34 37 2 1 Av
Hernan Iribarren*      2b 25 .254 .298 .318 123 449 51 114 19 2 2 39 28 78 16 10 Fr
Chris Woodward       ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 2 1 Av

————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

EXCELLENT
Ryan Braun           lf 25 .306 .358 .620 150 598 107 183 39 7 45 136 45 123 16 6 Pr

AVERAGE
Russell Branyan*      3b 33 .234 .330 .460 92 239 32 56 12 0 14 42 33 78 3 0 Fr

FAIR
Bill Hall           3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 5 5 Vg
Joe Dillon           3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 2 2 Fr
Mike Lamb*          3b 33 .268 .330 .389 98 265 35 71 13 2 5 32 25 38 1 1 Pr
Matthew Gamel*        3b 23 .260 .314 .424 139 550 76 143 33 3 17 76 42 105 8 8 Fr

POOR
Brad Nelson*        1b 26 .239 .319 .395 141 451 56 108 26 1 14 59 51 89 9 6 Pr
Taylor Green*        3b 22 .243 .304 .391 128 486 46 118 21 0 17 65 41 66 2 5 Av
Vinny Rottino         c   29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 8 5 Pr
Adam Heether         3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 5 3 Av
Callix Crabbe#        2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 14 10 Av
Michael Rivera       c   32 .234 .283 .388 65 214 20 50 9 0 8 29 12 40 3 2 Pr
Craig Counsell*      ss 38 .218 .331 .282 96 220 25 48 11 0 1 18 34 37 2 1 Vg
Chris Woodward       ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 2 1 Vg

————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

EXCELLENT
J.J. Hardy           ss 26 .277 .337 .479 124 476 69 132 26 2 22 80 42 76 2 2 Fr

AVERAGE
Bill Hall           3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 5 5 Fr

FAIR
Adam Heether         3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 5 3 Fr
Craig Counsell*      ss 38 .218 .331 .282 96 220 25 48 11 0 1 18 34 37 2 1 Vg

POOR
Alcides Escobar       ss 22 .268 .292 .342 136 544 71 146 18 2 6 53 18 74 25 11 Vg
Chris Woodward       ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 2 1 Av

——————————————————————————————————————————————————
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
——————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS LF RF

EXCELLENT
Ryan Braun           lf 25 .306 .358 .620 150 598 107 183 39 7 45 136 45 123 16 6 Av  

VERY GOOD
Corey Hart           rf 27 .282 .331 .491 140 503 73 142 35 5 20 82 33 96 21 7     Av

AVERAGE
Russell Branyan*      3b 33 .234 .330 .460 92 239 32 56 12 0 14 42 33 78 3 0 Fr Fr

FAIR
Gabe Kapler         cf 33 .276 .327 .432 84 192 30 53 13 1 5 25 13 32 2 1 Av Vg
Jay Gibbons*        rf 32 .266 .317 .435 59 207 22 55 14 0 7 29 15 34 0 0 Fr Pr
Joe Dillon           3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 2 2 Av  

POOR
Brad Nelson*        1b 26 .239 .319 .395 141 451 56 108 26 1 14 59 51 89 9 6 Fr Fr
Laynce Nix*          cf 28 .241 .293 .420 117 395 45 95 18 1 17 58 26 106 4 2 Av Av
Cole Gillespie       lf 25 .231 .305 .377 129 472 58 109 26 2 13 58 47 89 14 5 Vg Vg
Brandon Katin         rf 26 .233 .281 .403 114 387 43 90 19 1 15 54 20 111 4 3 Fr Fr
Vinny Rottino         c   29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 8 5 Fr  
Adam Heether         3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 5 3 Av  
Callix Crabbe#        2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 14 10 Av Av
Anthony Gwynn*        cf 26 .257 .313 .314 118 382 45 98 12 2 2 32 30 61 18 7 Vg Vg
Hernan Iribarren*      2b 25 .254 .298 .318 123 449 51 114 19 2 2 39 28 78 16 10 Av  
Chris Woodward       ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 2 1 Av Av
Lorenzo Cain         rf 23 .223 .277 .321 128 507 58 113 22 2 8 48 32 97 21 9 Vg Vg

————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

VERY GOOD
Mike Cameron         cf 36 .246 .333 .446 125 475 74 117 30 4 19 73 57 132 15 5 Av

AVERAGE
Gabe Kapler         cf 33 .276 .327 .432 84 192 30 53 13 1 5 25 13 32 2 1 Fr
Bill Hall           3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 5 5 Pr

FAIR
Laynce Nix*          cf 28 .241 .293 .420 117 395 45 95 18 1 17 58 26 106 4 2 Fr

POOR
Cole Gillespie       lf 25 .231 .305 .377 129 472 58 109 26 2 13 58 47 89 14 5 Fr
Callix Crabbe#        2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 14 10 Av
Anthony Gwynn*        cf 26 .257 .313 .314 118 382 45 98 12 2 2 32 30 61 18 7 Av
Hernan Iribarren*      2b 25 .254 .298 .318 123 449 51 114 19 2 2 39 28 78 16 10 Fr
Lorenzo Cain         rf 23 .223 .277 .321 128 507 58 113 22 2 8 48 32 97 21 9 Vg

* - Hits Left
# - Switch-Hitter

—————————————————————————————————————————-
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K

TOP THIRD
C.C. Sabathia*        28   3.07 17   7 31 31   223.0 203   76 19   47 222
Ben Sheets           30   3.41 12   7 26 26   161.0 153   61 14   38 136
Yovani Gallardo       23   3.73   5   3 14 14   82.0   74   34   7   35   74

MIDDLE THIRD
David Bush           29   4.50   9 11 31 29   180.0 189   90 26   42 125
Chris Capuano*        30   4.53   8   8 24 22   137.0 147   69 17   39 115
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Manny Parra*          26   4.57   7   7 24 23   128.0 134   65 12   60 101

BOTTOM THIRD
Jeff Suppan           34   5.04   8 11 28 28   168.0 196   94 21   60   95
Nic Ungs             29   5.27   4   7 20 16   94.0 107   55 14   34   50
Sam Narron*          27   5.41   5   9 23 20   123.0 147   74 16   36   48
Lindsay Gulin*        32   5.73   5   9 23 21   113.0 126   72 19   56   67
Chris Narveson*        27   6.03   4   8 19 16   91.0 106   61 18   41   60
Richie Gardner         27   6.10   3   7 20 15   90.0 109   61 14   43   46
Jeremy Jeffress       21   6.24   4 10 20 19   88.0   98   61 17   55   59

—————————————————————————————————————————-
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K

MIDDLE THIRD
Brian Shouse*        40   3.72   2   2 66   0   46.0   46   19   4   15   30
Mitch Stetter*        28   3.82   4   3 50   0   40.0   35   17   4   20   38
Salomon Torres         37   3.88   5   4 68   0   72.0   71   31   6   27   55
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Mark DiFelice         32   4.33   4   4 26 10   79.0   81   38 13   14   59
David Riske           32   4.34   2   2 54   1   56.0   54   27   8   27   48

BOTTOM THIRD
Guillermo Mota         35   4.58   3   4 53   0   57.0   56   29   8   24   52
Carlos Villanueva       25   4.60   5   5 30 11   94.0   97   48 14   31   77
Todd Coffey           28   4.62   4   4 72   0   76.0   82   39   9   29   55
Eric Gagne           33   4.72   2   3 42   0   40.0   39   21   7   17   40
Erasmo Ramirez*        33   4.74   4   4 48   0   57.0   66   30   8   11   30
Seth McClung         28   4.80   5   6 42   9   90.0   86   48 10   61   72
Joe Bateman           29   4.83   3   3 45   0   69.0   73   37   9   29   47
Luis Pena           26   5.03   3   4 54   0   59.0   61   33   5   40   38
Tim Dillard           25   5.12   5   7 42 12   123.0 144   70 14   41   57
Derrick Turnbow       31   5.36   3   5 52   0   47.0   39   28   4   50   56
Troy Cate*          27   5.59   2   5 39   7   74.0   84   46 12   32   48

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Ryan Braun
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%)  .337 .390 .683 160 638 128 215 47 9 52 160 51 111 21 5 175
Mean         .306 .358 .620 150 598 107 183 39 7 45 136 45 123 16 6 151
Pessimistic (15%) .271 .317 .516 139 554 71 150 32 4 32 103 34 128 12 5 115

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jim Rice, Joe Medwick, Yeshua ben Joseph

Player Spotlight - Rickie Weeks
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%)  .280 .400 .506 145 528 127 148 31 8 24 92 87 125 32 6 137  
Mean         .246 .359 .409 124 452 89 111 22 5 14 61 65 118 21 5 102
Pessimistic (15%) .216 .310 .331 112 408 52 88 17 3 8 42 45 114 14 4   69

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Tony Bernazard, Willie Randolph

Player Spotlight - Manny Parra
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.55 10   6 27 26 147 135   58 11   60 130   123
Mean           4.57   7   7 24 23 128 134   65 12   60 101   96
Pessimistic (15%)  5.82   4   8 20 19   99 118   64 13   55   75   75

Top Near-Age Comps: Ralph Birkofer, Jerry Reuss

Player Spotlight - Ben Sheets
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  2.64 15   5 28 28 184 161   54 12   29 157   166  
Mean           3.41 12   7 26 26 161 153   61 14   38 136   128
Pessimistic (15%)  4.32   7   8 21 21 127 133   61 15   36 101   101

Top Near-Age Comps:  Bert Saberhagen, Erik Hanson

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. 

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 23, 2008 at 08:52 PM | 68 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Cabbage Posted: October 23, 2008 at 08:59 PM (#2993309)
Wo ist Salome?

Ah, there he is. Quite the sleeper, eh?
   2. EnderCN Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:28 PM (#2993332)
Find a decent 3B and they seem set for hitting. I hope ZiPs is correct about Hart and he remembers how to take a BB so his OBP hits .330+. He was painfully bad in the 2nd half this season when it came to getting on base.

I'll take the under on Villaneuva's ERA as well assuming they keep him in the pen. I know ZiPs gave him a hybrid projection but he was so much better in relief(2.12 ERA, .604 OPS against) than as a starter(6.43 ERA,.933 OPS against). McClung looked a ton better in the second half as well so he could be a surprise next year.
   3. caprules Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:28 PM (#2993334)
Thanks for the great work, Dan. I really like the new format.
   4. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:29 PM (#2993335)
The classifications - meh. I'm no prospect maven, but isn't Escobar considered a good one? Not sure what it adds to call him a "Poor" SS. He's not in the majors and we can see from his MLEs that he probably isn't ready. But I dunno...
   5. caprules Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:32 PM (#2993340)
The classifications - meh. I'm no prospect maven, but isn't Escobar considered a good one? Not sure what it adds to call him a "Poor" SS. He's not in the majors and we can see from his MLEs that he probably isn't ready. But I dunno...


Escobar's defense is the reason that he is so highly regarded, and Dan rates him VG there.
   6. EnderCN Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:34 PM (#2993343)
That is also what Escobar would do in the majors right now. Escobar had decent numbers in AA last year that were heavily driven by a high BABIP (probably due to all of his bunt singles).
   7. Tike Redman's Shattered Dreams Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:38 PM (#2993346)
That is an incredibly scary optimistic projection for Braun. I'm not looking forward to watching the Brewers tee off on Jeff Karstens or whoever next year.
   8. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:41 PM (#2993348)
Yeah, both Braun's and Fielder's numbers seem incredibly high to me--both much more similar to their '07 output than their '08. I guess ZiPS sees them improving with age.
   9. zenbitz Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:42 PM (#2993349)
No def'n for
POOR
FAIR
AVERAGE
VERY GOOD
EXCELLENT
LINCECUM

Quintiles?
   10. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:45 PM (#2993350)
The classifications - meh. I'm no prospect maven, but isn't Escobar considered a good one? Not sure what it adds to call him a "Poor" SS. He's not in the majors and we can see from his MLEs that he probably isn't ready. But I dunno...

These are projections for next season, and ZiPS thinks that Escobar would be a poor ML shortstop next season. It isn't a permanent branding.
   11. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:46 PM (#2993351)
I don't like the new format, too bulky. Just a data point, obviously not taking anything away from the tremendous work Dan puts in.

No "good"?
   12. EnderCN Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:46 PM (#2993352)
Braun's numbers were much better before his injury which also suppressed his counting stats. He'd likely have 40+ HR last year if he hadn't got hurt.
   13. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: October 23, 2008 at 09:54 PM (#2993358)
Definitely like the new format. Makes it much simpler to identify organizational strengths and weaknesses.

My one suggestion: for each position, would it be possible to add a LEAGUE AVERAGE line? Maybe LEAGUE REPLACEMENT LEVEL as well?


#9: See the last line of the final paragraph of the blog entry:


Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
   14. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: October 23, 2008 at 10:05 PM (#2993365)
Great stuff! Thanks, Dan.

I liked the lines for the average 1B, OF or SP, RP that were included in last year's ZIPS. The quintiles are a little more challenging to interpret, but the more I look at them, the more I like them.

Also, why quintiles for the position players and tertiles for the pitchers?
   15. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 23, 2008 at 10:08 PM (#2993367)
I like the format, Dan, but I would echo post 13.

As always, thanks for the projections!
   16. Rodder Posted: October 23, 2008 at 10:15 PM (#2993369)
You made a mistake and forgot the top third relievers. ;)
   17. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 23, 2008 at 10:21 PM (#2993370)
I don't like the new format.

Braun's projection is sick.
   18. EnderCN Posted: October 23, 2008 at 10:30 PM (#2993372)
I like the Braun comps, heh.
   19. Kyle S at work Posted: October 23, 2008 at 10:55 PM (#2993382)
I like the new format as well.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: October 23, 2008 at 11:00 PM (#2993383)
I'll learn to live with it, maybe even grow to love it but for now, put me down as a "no" on the new format. Among other things, I liked having the average lines for all positions right there on one page -- that way I can say "holy crap, Matt Murton doesn't project to hit as well as an average SS" which is much more dramatic than "poor corner OF".

So the ratings of "very good" etc. are based just on offense. Obviously that makes it easy based on quintiles but I'm not sure you want people going around saying ZiPS rated Rickie Weeks as a "very good 2B." :-)

As to Mr. Braun ... put me down for the under. ZiPS seems to have forgotten its nonlinearity this offseason -- first it was projecting Howie Kendrick to put up a Cobbian BABIP, now it's projecting Braun to hit 385/781 on contact -- better than Jimmie Foxx. I don't know want to know what it's gonna do for Ryan Howard.

Meanwhile, Russell Branyan, a true on-contact god with career rates of 382/805!! is projected to a measly 348/683. Does ZiPS think he's actually gonna face LHP this year or something? :-)

Also, Jesus couldn't hit a curveball -- he was human after all.
   21. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 23, 2008 at 11:05 PM (#2993387)
As to Mr. Braun ... put me down for the under. ZiPS seems to have forgotten its nonlinearity this offseason -- first it was projecting Howie Kendrick to put up a Cobbian BABIP, now it's projecting Braun to hit 385/781 on contact -- better than Jimmie Foxx.

Walt, have you looked at league-wide BABIP over time? Is it relatively stable?
   22. DCA Posted: October 23, 2008 at 11:12 PM (#2993390)
I agree with Walt (20). I prefer the old format.
   23. JoeHova Posted: October 23, 2008 at 11:43 PM (#2993401)
I like the new format.

I'm very optimistic about Salome and ZiPS reinforces that. It would be excellent if the Brewers actually gave him a chance at some point next year. Unfortunately, I think they are committed to Kendall through 2009 for whatever reason.
   24. JoeHova Posted: October 23, 2008 at 11:45 PM (#2993404)
I forgot to add, I hope the Brewers keep Branyan around next year. He's a very useful fill-in or platoon starter.
   25. Jose Canusee Posted: October 23, 2008 at 11:54 PM (#2993408)
Yeshua ben Joseph
-Don't have much info on him at age 25. Known to be pretty good with the lumber, walked a lot when he got older. He got hit more often than Biggio and turned the other cheek. Nobody ever fooled him with a changeup.
   26. Good cripple hitter Posted: October 24, 2008 at 12:07 AM (#2993412)
ben Joseph's a decent enough player, but he never could handle the pressure of playing in the big cities. I prefer that hotshot prospect in the Astro's system, Simon ben Kosiba. Ed Wade claims he's going to be a real superstar, and I'm inclined to agree.
   27. Dan Posted: October 24, 2008 at 12:32 AM (#2993424)
Hell of a projection for Braun.

I was surprised by how good Weeks' projection was, and absolutely astonished at his 15% upside projection. That's some great potential that ZiPS sees in him still.
   28. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 24, 2008 at 12:36 AM (#2993428)
Walt, have you looked at league-wide BABIP over time? Is it relatively stable?


I have, and it isn't particularly stable year-to-year.

In-play BA has been generally increasing since the 1960s; it's gone up about 20 points since then. The increase has leveled off some since about 2000.

-- MWE
   29. AROM Posted: October 24, 2008 at 01:20 AM (#2993491)
ben Joseph's a decent enough player, but he never could handle the pressure of playing in the big cities.


If Braun really is as good as ben Joseph, he'll solve two problems for the Brewers: He can bat in the middle of the lineup and pitch in the 9th inning.

JESUS SAVES
   30. AROM Posted: October 24, 2008 at 01:21 AM (#2993494)
Oh, and the new format, me likey.
   31. EnderCN Posted: October 24, 2008 at 01:21 AM (#2993496)
I was surprised by how good Weeks' projection was, and absolutely astonished at his 15% upside projection. That's some great potential that ZiPS sees in him still


Weeks projection - .246/.359/.409/.768
Weeks career - .245/.352/.406/.758
Weeks 2008 - .234/.342/.398/.741

The difference in that projection and his 2008 is a few singles pretty much. The difference from his career is like 1 single and a 1 or 2 walks.
   32. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 24, 2008 at 01:24 AM (#2993503)
I don't like the new format, too bulky.

My thoughts too, but I'm also a stickler against change (except in politics!)
   33. Juan V Posted: October 24, 2008 at 01:29 AM (#2993506)
A vote in favor of the new format.
   34. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 24, 2008 at 01:52 AM (#2993546)
"Yeshua ben Joseph"

Chronic injuries really derailed his career. Hands, feet, intestinal bleeding, you name it...
   35. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 24, 2008 at 01:59 AM (#2993555)
I prefer the old format. If we're going to use more space, let's fill it with more info.
   36. DKDC Posted: October 24, 2008 at 03:22 AM (#2993666)
I also prefer the old format, but I'm not going to complain either way.
   37. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 24, 2008 at 03:50 AM (#2993716)
I was kinda hoping you guys would be nearly unanimous one way or the other!

Walt, nothing's changed with ZiPS on the in-play front.
   38. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 24, 2008 at 04:04 AM (#2993725)
So Weeks could be Chase Utley or Callix Crabbe. Awesome! Looks like this could have been a World Series winner at full strength. Too bad.
   39. Starlin of the Slipstream (TRHN) Posted: October 24, 2008 at 05:42 AM (#2993760)
I like the new format, too. I like having a basic sense of a team's depth chart and a really general idea of the magnituge of a players' offensive contribution. It's like the ZiPs version of the positional strength breakdown in OOTP9.
   40. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 24, 2008 at 05:52 AM (#2993762)
I have to say, I think Gamel has a decent shot at beating that projection, if he's able to win a job.
   41. Walt Davis Posted: October 24, 2008 at 06:11 AM (#2993770)
I was only kidding Dan.

Walt, have you looked at league-wide BABIP over time? Is it relatively stable?

I'd have thought my laziness had more renown. :-)

So no.

But I do know that when it comes to BABIP (which excludes HRs), Cobb hit about 379 (I had to guess at a few seasons of Ks), Carew hit 359, Gwynn hit 341, Boggs hit 344, Ichiro has hit 354. Kendrick is projected to hit 372. Seems a bit much (but admittedly not out of line with his career to date). Obviously it's possible and Kendrick's high K-rate (relative to any of those guys) shows he's less contact-oriented and so maybe there is reason to think he hits the ball harder.

Braun's numbers that I cited, which are on-contact and therefore include HR, are more believable to me. There are "lots" of guys in the 350/700 range on-contact these days. He's basically projected into Manny/Pujols territory -- I suppose somebody has to be the next Manny/Pujols. But still seems a bit high for a mean projection (but again not out of line with his career to date).

I'm waiting to see if Howard is projected to out on-contact Ruth.

This really matters for Kendrick. He's projected to 315/342/433 vs. an average 2B of about 340/400 (a guesstimate from the Angels ZiPS. But that's with a Cobbian BABIP. Even if he falls into the Carew/Ichiro range, he's now about 300/330/415 and looks pretty average-ish. If he's in Boggs/Gwynn territory, that's 285/315/395 and he's not looking so good.

We often are concerned about players overly reliant on BA. Not only is Kendrick (currently) heavily reliant on BA, that BA is reliant on an historically high BABIP. I think that will be hard to pull off.

Meanwhile Braun is projected to 380/780 on-contact and a 150 OPS+. He hit 360/700 this year (perfectly believable these days) and had a 128 OPS+. He could fall to 340/680 and still be average or a bit above for an LF. In short, he can be anywhere from average to good without being historic; Kendrick doesn't have that luxury (unless he develops some power and he does have a high doubles rate).
   42. this space for rent Posted: October 24, 2008 at 06:22 AM (#2993774)
"Yeshua ben Joseph"

Chronic injuries really derailed his career. Hands, feet, intestinal bleeding, you name it...


Those injuries didn't really keep him down for long, though - he was the original Comeback Player of the Year, after all.
   43. BeanoCook Posted: October 24, 2008 at 06:24 AM (#2993775)
Manny Parra will definitely beat his projection. His top upside is Jon Lester. Clearly his prior career as a injured/rehabbing pitcher is playing with his projection. Young LHP seem to improve the most, in year 2 more than any other type of player in baseball.
   44. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 24, 2008 at 01:24 PM (#2993847)
Let me just make one thing clear. The "Poor" category simply means the bottom 20% of starting major leaguers at that position. Escobar is a good prospect, but it's a stretch to say his offense as of 2009 is ready for prime-time. If he just repeats his 2008 in the minors, he probably moves safely into the "Fair" category (he's on the cusp right now) which makes him a solid player given his defense, which is a lot closer to an "EX" rating than an "AV" one.
   45. AROM Posted: October 24, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2993866)
Those injuries didn't really keep him down for long, though - he was the original Comeback Player of the Year, after all.


His career really fell off a cliff after age 30 though.
   46. JoeHova Posted: October 24, 2008 at 02:27 PM (#2993901)
Hey Dan, if you have it handy, what would Salome's optimistic projection be?
   47. a bebop a rebop Posted: October 24, 2008 at 02:56 PM (#2993928)
His career really fell off a cliff after age 30 though.


Nah, that was when he finally got called up to the bigs.
   48. Walt Davis Posted: October 24, 2008 at 05:06 PM (#2994033)
The "Poor" category simply means the bottom 20% of starting major leaguers at that position.

Do we then need a "crap" or "replacement level" or "sub-replacement level" or "Jeff Francoeur" or "only good enough for the Rangers' rotation" category?
   49. Cabbage Posted: October 24, 2008 at 05:16 PM (#2994038)
Hey Dan, if you have it handy, what would Salome's optimistic projection be?

Optimistic is a nice way of describing how Wagner thought he'd manage to get a soprano who could a) hit those notes, b) dance like a stripper, and c) pass for 16 years old
   50. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 24, 2008 at 05:16 PM (#2994039)
Rickie Weeks' comps made me chuckle...
   51. JoeHova Posted: October 24, 2008 at 05:23 PM (#2994047)
Optimistic is a nice way of describing how Wagner thought he'd manage to get a soprano


Unless I'm mistaken (or missing a Wagner opera of the same name), Salome is by Richard Strauss.
   52. JoeHova Posted: October 24, 2008 at 05:25 PM (#2994049)
Interestingly, the opera is based on a translation of a play by Oscar Wilde.
   53. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 24, 2008 at 06:19 PM (#2994084)
Rickie Weeks' comps made me chuckle...


Why? That's exactly the type of player that he is.

(looks at handle of poster)

Oh..

-- MWE
   54. Gaelan Posted: October 24, 2008 at 06:46 PM (#2994108)
I love, love, love the new format. Those who dislike it are mad, mad, mad.
   55.   Posted: October 24, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2994123)
Ah, Chris Woodward. At least you'll always havethis game.
   56. Jose Canusee Posted: October 24, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2994124)
If Braun really is as good as ben Joseph, he'll solve two problems for the Brewers: He can bat in the middle of the lineup and pitch in the 9th inning.

JESUS SAVES

Those injuries didn't really keep him down for long, though - he was the original Comeback Player of the Year, after all.


Clearly there needs to be a ball fan viewing the Dead Sea Scrolls. Might be something for Retrosheet they just don't recognize. Otherwise it's hard to come up with park-adjusted data. Jerusalem is not as elevated as Coors Field but the air should allow the ball to carry. However, they must have done a lot of small ball, since he is best known for sacrificing.

I thought BJ Upton was quoted as saying Longoria's comp should be Ben Joseph in spikes, so that makes some sense for Braun also.
   57. Cabbage Posted: October 24, 2008 at 07:33 PM (#2994137)
Unless I'm mistaken (or missing a Wagner opera of the same name), Salome is by Richard Strauss.

For the life of me, I have no idea why I typed Wagner. Brain fart.

Or, since we're sticking with germans today, gehirn sprach nonsense.
   58. Cabbage Posted: October 24, 2008 at 07:34 PM (#2994139)
Jerusalem is not as elevated as Coors Field but the air should allow the ball to carry. However, they must have done a lot of small ball, since he is best known for sacrificing.

I hear the Masada franchise invented the suicide squeeze.
   59. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 24, 2008 at 07:44 PM (#2994142)
he was the original Comeback Player of the Year
But with very few appearances during the comeback. In fact some players like Frank "Doubting" Thomas didn't believe it was really ben Joseph.
   60. this space for rent Posted: October 24, 2008 at 10:11 PM (#2994240)
As for the new format, I think it's a bit bulky - and I echo #s 13 & 14 in requesting league average lines with BA/OBA/SLG.

At the risk of being smitten by ben Joseph for suggesting more work for Dan, maybe the team reports could be in original format and there could be a final set of (park-adjusted) reports (one for each position/pitching role) in the new format?
   61. bucbeatle Posted: October 24, 2008 at 10:20 PM (#2994245)
I like the new format. Thanks for all your work, Dan.
   62. greenback calls it soccer Posted: October 24, 2008 at 10:54 PM (#2994260)
It's not so much that I dislike the new format, as I preferred the only format. At the very least could you promise to list Aaron Miles only once when you project the Cardinals?
   63. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 25, 2008 at 01:16 AM (#2994324)
It's not so much that I dislike the new format, as I preferred the only format. At the very least could you promise to list Aaron Miles only once when you project the Cardinals?


I've got some bad news for you then - I do pitching projections for hitters that have pitched two years in a row...
   64. EnderCN Posted: October 25, 2008 at 05:16 AM (#2994404)
I have to agree that having the same projection 5 or 6 times for a hitter is bulky and is a strong negative in the new format, especially for a player like say Braun who has almost 0% chance to start at 3B this year but is listed as such or Rivera who will get 4-5 games at 1B tops.
   65. Saul Posted: November 20, 2008 at 06:29 AM (#3012863)
I think the top comp for ben Joseph is Lenny "Nails" Dykstra.

Love the new format...keep up the great work.
   66. Thermos Posted: December 12, 2008 at 05:57 PM (#3027497)
Dan,

How does Cameron's projection change if you move him to The House That Center Stage With Michael Kay Built, and how does Melky's projection look at Miller?
   67. Drexl Spivey Posted: December 14, 2008 at 08:49 AM (#3028597)
"Interestingly, the opera is based on a translation of a play by Oscar Wilde."

Unsurprisingly, bringing up opera on a baseball site makes you annoying.
   68. JoeHova Posted: December 19, 2008 at 11:23 AM (#3033752)
Unsurprisingly, bringing up opera on a baseball site makes you annoying.


Hey, I didn't bring it up, it was brought up in the first response. Also, shut up.

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