Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Oakland Athletics

Make no mistake about it, the A’s aren’t doing a quick rebuild.  There’s little chance of competing with the Angels in 2009 unless the team’s fortunate in some of the young hitters really stepping up, like Carlos Gonzalez.  Daric Barton probably needs to spend some time in the minors as there’s a difference between being disciplined and simply being too passive.  Cust can get away with it since he has a lot more power, but Barton has to be more like Mark Grace.  If enough breaks right for the team, they could win 80 games, but a number in the 70s is more likely depending on what Beane does in the offseason.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Jack Cust*          dh 30 .246 .387 .471 136 435 66 107 20 0 26 78 100 160 0 1
Frank Thomas         dh 41 .260 .362 .402 86 296 31 77 12 0 10 41 44 50 0 0
AVERAGE 1B/DH———————————————————————————————————————
AVERAGE LF————————————————————————————————————————-
AVERAGE RF————————————————————————————————————————-
Travis Buck*        rf 24 .252 .335 .403 85 318 40 80 18 3 8 39 36 71 4 1
AVERAGE 3B————————————————————————————————————————-
Eric Chavez*        3b 31 .246 .328 .411 87 321 43 79 18 1 11 44 40 66 2 1
Ryan Sweeney*        rf 24 .272 .340 .384 128 456 55 124 20 2 9 52 47 72 8 3
Chris Denorfia       cf 28 .284 .337 .377 104 334 44 95 16 0 5 36 26 55 8 4
Jack Hannahan*        3b 29 .247 .340 .373 123 405 47 100 24 0 9 47 56 110 3 2
AVERAGE CF————————————————————————————————————————-
Mark Ellis           2b 32 .253 .328 .387 118 442 59 112 22 2 11 54 43 71 7 2
Daric Barton*        1b 23 .244 .332 .378 151 532 72 130 27 4 12 63 68 88 3 2
AVERAGE 2B————————————————————————————————————————-
Kurt Suzuki         c   25 .248 .325 .369 117 404 50 100 22 0 9 55 42 67 1 1
AVERAGE SS————————————————————————————————————————-
Matt Murton         lf 27 .253 .320 .367 114 368 43 93 17 2 7 41 34 48 4 2
Aaron Cunningham     cf 23 .248 .307 .404 132 532 72 132 26 3 17 69 42 110 18 9
Emil Brown           rf 34 .250 .310 .376 106 364 43 91 17 1 9 44 29 85 5 2
AVERAGE C—————————————————————————————————————————
Casey Rogowski*      1b 28 .237 .308 .361 123 435 49 103 22 1 10 49 42 91 13 4
Landon Powell#        c   27 .227 .291 .383 90 326 31 74 10 1 13 46 29 83 1 0
Chris Carter         1b 22 .219 .284 .403 132 521 57 114 22 1 24 76 45 116 3 1
Danny Putnam*        lf 26 .231 .303 .359 92 329 36 76 16 1 8 38 30 70 2 2
Jeff Baisley         3b 26 .239 .296 .362 105 389 41 93 21 0 9 44 28 66 2 1
Corey Brown*        cf 23 .216 .275 .388 103 402 36 87 18 0 17 55 31 103 9 2
Bobby Crosby         ss 29 .234 .296 .344 110 418 50 98 23 1 7 43 36 76 7 2
Gregorio Petit       ss 24 .260 .305 .336 110 411 40 107 17 1 4 37 25 70 5 5
Eric Patterson*      2b 26 .235 .288 .352 122 455 54 107 20 3 9 48 33 85 23 7
Rajai Davis#        cf 28 .245 .301 .335 113 310 41 76 13 3 3 29 22 49 29 10
Sean Doolittle*      1b 22 .227 .281 .360 108 431 43 98 22 1 11 49 32 92 4 3
Carlos Gonzalez*      cf 23 .233 .276 .365 130 468 50 109 30 1 10 52 25 119 7 4
Rob Bowen#          c   28 .215 .304 .323 65 130 17 28 8 0 2 13 16 43 0 1
Cliff Pennington#      ss 25 .227 .309 .293 141 556 73 126 21 2 4 46 65 82 23 5
Brooks Conrad#        2b 29 .205 .269 .371 124 483 62 99 26 3 16 61 40 112 7 2
Richie Robnett*      rf 25 .222 .277 .345 102 400 45 89 22 0 9 43 29 97 3 1
Javier Herrera       cf 24 .218 .265 .360 81 339 42 74 16 1 10 40 19 77 9 7
Joshua Horton*        ss 23 .243 .297 .285 99 400 38 97 12 1 1 30 29 61 2 5
Justin Knoedler       c   28 .203 .256 .332 82 271 30 55 15 1 6 28 18 65 3 1
Raul Padron*        c   24 .212 .252 .332 80 292 25 62 14 0 7 31 15 63 1 1

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Cust*                    Pr   Pr
Thomas                          
Buck*                    Av   Av
Chavez*                Av        
Sweeney*                  Vg Vg Vg
Denorfia                   Av Fr Av
Hannahan*          Av Av Av        
Ellis               Ex          
Barton*            Vg            
Suzuki         Av                
Murton                     Av Fr Fr
Cunningham                 Vg Av Vg
Brown                     Fr   Av
Rogowski*          Av       Fr   Fr
Powell#        Vg                
Carter             Fr            
Putnam*                    Fr Fr Fr
Baisley               Av        
Brown*                    Av Pr Av
Crosby                   Av      
Petit               Av Av Av      
Patterson*            Fr     Av Av Av
Davis#                    Vg Vg Vg
Doolittle*          Vg            
Gonzalez*                  Av Fr Av
Bowen#        Fr                
Pennington#          Av Av Av      
Conrad#              Av Av        
Robnett*                  Av Fr Av
Herrera                   Vg Av Vg
Horton*              Av Av Fr      
Knoedler       Av                
Padron*        Fr   Av            

Player Spotlight - Jack Cust
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%)  .272 .423 .538 153 489 87 133 25 0 35 100 128 167 0 1 158
Mean         .246 .387 .471 136 435 66 107 20 0 26 78 100 160 0 1 131        
Pessimistic (15%) .206 .346 .387 114 364 40 75 15 0 17 53 77 154 0 2   98

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jason Thompson, Jim Gentile

Player Spotlight - Travis Buck
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%)  .281 .374 .475 117 438 66 123 30 5 15 67 60 85 7 1 128
Mean         .252 .335 .403 85 318 40 80 18 3 8 39 36 71 4 1   99  
Pessimistic (15%) .227 .292 .327 68 251 21 57 11 1 4 24 22 60 2 1   69

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Norm Miller, Dwight Evans

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Brad Ziegler         29   2.89   7   3 61   0   81.0   77   26   3   25   42
Huston Street         25   3.22   7   3 63   0   67.0   57   24   6   19   71
Joey Devine           25   3.24   6   3 48   1   50.0   44   18   3   23   47
Justin Duchscherer     31   3.30   9   5 18 18   101.0   96   37   9   21   70
Santiago Casilla       29   3.90   2   2 54   1   60.0   57   26   5   26   53
AVERAGE RELIEVER—————————————————————————————————
Jerry Blevins*        25   4.10   4   4 57   0   68.0   72   31   6   19   47
Alan Embree*          39   4.11   3   2 64   0   57.0   57   26   6   19   50
Sean Gallagher         23   4.23   8   7 28 23   134.0 135   63 11   65   92
Dana Eveland*        25   4.36   7   7 25 23   132.0 139   64   9   57   91
AVERAGE STARTER—————————————————————————————————-
Andrew Brown         28   4.43   3   3 51   0   61.0   59   30   5   35   46
Greg Smith*          25   4.50   8   9 25 25   144.0 151   72 17   51   79
Trevor Cahill         21   4.54   8   9 22 20   111.0 112   56 10   60   60
Vince Mazzaro         22   4.80   9 13 29 28   167.0 185   89 17   66   73
Brett Anderson*        21   4.90   7 10 22 21   112.0 127   61 14   33   59
Chris Gissell         31   4.94   5   6 22 15   93.0 105   51 14   24   57
Joshua Outman*        24   4.99   6 10 41 20   137.0 151   76 14   69   68
Jay Marshall*        26   5.02   3   4 58   0   61.0   71   34   6   23   24
Brad Kilby*          26   5.03   3   5 54   0   68.0   72   38 10   31   43
Dallas Braden*        25   5.06   3   5 18 13   80.0   92   45 13   24   48
Jared Lansford         22   5.09   3   5 29   2   53.0   59   30   6   24   28
Ryan Wing*          27   5.26   3   4 44   7   77.0   84   45 11   39   39
Jeff Gray           27   5.32   3   6 57   0   71.0   84   42   9   26   35
Keith Foulke         36   5.36   2   3 42   0   47.0   53   28 10   15   33
Henry Rodriguez       24   5.37   5 10 30 22   109.0 116   65   9   83   61
Kirk Saarloos         30   5.42   3   6 24 14   103.0 125   62 14   32   40
James Simmons         22   5.44   6 10 26 26   139.0 166   84 21   44   70
Shane Komine         28   5.60   3   7 16 13   82.0   95   51 13   30   42
Brad Knox           27   5.60   5   9 26 22   143.0 173   89 19   56   55
Gio Gonzalez*        23   5.66   6 13 31 29   151.0 161   95 26   84 109
Andrew Bailey         25   5.82   4   9 28 17   102.0 112   66 17   53   60
Dan Meyer*          27   5.97   3   8 21 18   101.0 119   67 17   45   56
Bret Prinz           32   6.21   1   2 29   0   29.0   33   20   5   17   19
Lenny Dinardo*        29   6.39   2   7 19 11   69.0   92   49 11   25   29
Justin Dowdy*        25   6.45   1   4 45   3   74.0   89   53 14   43   42
David Shafer         27   6.45   1   2 44   1   53.0   61   38 10   36   30
Jose Garcia           24   7.44   1   5 31   1   52.0   66   43 13   31   20

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Greg Smith
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.68 11   8 28 28 164 156   67 17   49 102   115
Mean           4.50   8   9 25 25 144 151   72 17   51   79   94
Pessimistic (15%)  5.09   6   8 20 20 115 129   65 15   46   56   83

Top Near-Age Comps: John Koronka, Bill Travers

Player Spotlight - Dana Eveland

              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.43   9   6 28 26 152 144   58   8   53 112   123
Mean           4.36   7   7 25 23 132 139   64   9   57   91   97
Pessimistic (15%)  5.28   4   7 21 19 104 122   61   9   50   67   80

Top Near-Age Comps:  Danny Jackson, Jerry Reuss

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:01 PM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Willie Mayspedes Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:31 PM (#2973580)
Man that offense is offensive. I think Suzuki and Buck will hit better than that although Buck was pretty terrible for most of this year. Hopefully a couple of these guys step it up next year and then Beane can fill in the gaps through trades next July and next offseason.

Pitching looks very promising with Gallagher and Eveland above average starters, plenty of cheap above average relievers and two 21 year olds and a 22 year old looking very close to being ready to make the jump.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:34 PM (#2973584)
they could win 80 games, but a number in the 70s is more likely depending on what Beane does in the offseason.

So you're saying they will only win 90 in the DM ZiPS sims this year? :-)

Top Near-Age Comps: John Koronka, Bill Travers

A Koronka comp -- that's just cruel.

OK, so the Murton projections have finally come back down to earth but ... last year he projected as above the average LF, this year he's below the average SS? I know that gap's not as big these days as it used to be but that seems a big decline in a year.

And Ziegler blows that projection out of the water. :-)
   3. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#2973589)
Yeah, the O is grim, even with the park factor.

Was Landon Powell's sucky 2008 a function of the knees, or just a really bad year?
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:38 PM (#2973591)
Also curious about health reports on Komine, if anybody has any.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:44 PM (#2973607)
That is a lot of bad hitters.

What about Donnie Murphy?
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:48 PM (#2973618)
OK, so the Murton projections have finally come back down to earth but ... last year he projected as above the average LF, this year he's below the average SS? I know that gap's not as big these days as it used to be but that seems a big decline in a year.

Well, he's spending a year in a different park in the harder league and he was pretty lousy this year. Even ignoring a wretched cup of coffee in scattered play in the majors, being a corner outfielder with a .770ish OPS in the PCL is not a good resume line.
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:52 PM (#2973621)
"What about Donnie Murphy?"

Just got bumped off the roster a day or two ago, along with Saarloos. Though I guess The Saarlacc made the cut for a projection, or at least didn't get pulled.
   8. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:54 PM (#2973632)
Why do the A's of recent vintage churn out so many good pitchers and can't develop a hitter to save their lives? OK, Swisher was one, but even he hasn't reallly broken out yet.
   9. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 07, 2008 at 06:56 PM (#2973634)
Anyone have any fanboy expectations of Barton to break out? Wondering if I should pick him up again in my DMB league.
   10. AROM Posted: October 07, 2008 at 07:13 PM (#2973652)
Why do the A's of recent vintage churn out so many good pitchers and can't develop a hitter to save their lives? OK, Swisher was one, but even he hasn't reallly broken out yet.


Must have something to do with the ballpark. I'd call Swisher's 2006 a breakout year, but then he's regressed. He'd make a nice Angel next year since they'll need new corner outfielders (assuming Vlad at DH, Torii in center, Rivera & GA gone, GMJ & Willits on the bench). Since they were playing Wise over him in the playoffs, maybe KW will sell low on him, possibly for another shortstop to replace Cabrera.
   11. Xander Posted: October 07, 2008 at 07:19 PM (#2973663)
What about Michael Inoa?
   12. Danny Posted: October 07, 2008 at 07:21 PM (#2973669)
I think Suzuki and Buck will hit better than that although Buck was pretty terrible for most of this year

I think the Suzuki projection is close, but I would definitely take the over on Buck's 99 OPS+.

Buck will be 25 next year, and he has a .900 career minor league OPS and a 118 OPS+ in 500 MLB PA. He was sent down in April this year after 15 terrible games (70 PA). He then put up a .900 OPS in his 101 subsequent PA. I'm more concerned with him getting hurt than I am by him repeating his 2008 with the bat.

Why do the A's of recent vintage churn out so many good pitchers and can't develop a hitter to save their lives? OK, Swisher was one, but even he hasn't reallly broken out yet.

Part of it is the excellent defense.

Speaking of which, is Cust's defense really as bad as its reputation? He seems closer to average than poor by ZR.

----------

Is there any way to account for Greg Smith's pickoffs?
   13. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 07, 2008 at 07:36 PM (#2973680)
According to Dewan, Cust is 13 plays and 21 bases below average in the field over 1088.4 innings in 2007-08, so that's -16 runs per 162 games. Not necessarily *the* worst corner outfielder in MLB, but certainly in that neighborhood--about at the level where he's equally valuable as a DH and an outfielder. UZR is not yet available for the second half of 2008, but through July '08, Lichtman has him at -10 runs in 90 defensive games, which translates to -18 runs per 162. That's pretty close agreement between the two of them that he stinks.
   14. Juan V Posted: October 07, 2008 at 09:52 PM (#2973830)
Two DHs as the best hitters. Nice....
   15. Kyle S at work Posted: October 07, 2008 at 10:10 PM (#2973844)
Remember when Eric Chavez was good? Me neither :(
   16. greenback likes millwall, they don't care Posted: October 07, 2008 at 10:32 PM (#2973856)
Dan, I got a dumb question here. When you say average 3b, for example, do you mean average starting 3b or average of all PA's by 3b's?
   17. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 08, 2008 at 12:12 AM (#2973904)
Gio Gonzalez is a lot worse than I thought he'd be. OTOH Jerry Reuss and Danny Jackson are pretty good comps for Eveland.

They actually have four above average offensive players -- Cust, Sweeney, Suzuki and Ellis (if re-signed). Buck has a good shot at beating that projection. Beane has to find better solutions at SS, 3B and 1B which he certainly has the trade chips and budget to address.

I'd be interested in projections for Andrew Carignan and Adrian Cardenas.
   18. Hecubot Posted: October 08, 2008 at 12:14 AM (#2973906)
> Is there any way to account for Greg Smith's pickoffs?


It's just a really great move. It's a snap throw instead of a high leg kick manuever. He varies the rhythm on it and most guys can't read it until the first baseman has the ball. They either take off on a rundown or get tagged standing up. They're not tagged with a swipe going back to the bag.
   19. Hecubot Posted: October 08, 2008 at 12:20 AM (#2973911)
I'm more bummed than ever that the A's didn't take Brett Wallace (or Aaron Hicks) in the draft. I don't have a lot of faith that Jemile Weeks will turn into the leadoff hitter and second baseman they want. Their pick next year is going to be about 13th, so it won't be much better. (Interestingly, Jemile's old double play partner at UofM, Ryan Jackson, is rated about 13th on some prospect boards, and the A's are thin on middle infielders.) Meanwhile, the Giants will have a #6 pick next year.

I actually think the Giants are in better shape than the A's. They've got a better balance of top flight pitching prospects (MadBum, Alderson) and position players (Posey, Sandoval, Villanova). I guess we'll see how long it will take Chris Carter to reach the bigs.
   20. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 08, 2008 at 12:32 AM (#2973922)
Ooops, I forgot. How about Arnold Leon and Andrew Recker? Awesome as usual.
   21. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 08, 2008 at 12:36 AM (#2973925)
Andrew is closely related to Anthony Recker of course.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 08, 2008 at 12:52 AM (#2973929)
All 1B/3B/CF etc. It's just a lot easier that way and it works too - while the average contains a lot of backups, you can also assume that the player listed will also have backup time.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 08, 2008 at 12:59 AM (#2973931)
Hmm, my explanation made no sense.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: October 08, 2008 at 03:46 AM (#2974010)
It's just a really great move.

I think they meant is there any way to account for the pickoffs in his ZiPS projection -- i.e. he'd have a lower ERA than his peripherals would lead you to believe either because he's removing some baserunners, they're not stealing and not taking the extra base because of short leads.

Beane has to find better solutions at SS, 3B and 1B

Not at 3B if ZiPS is to be believed. Both Chavez and Hannahan project as just a bit below average -- unless the gap between average CF and average 3B has gotten bigger than it used to be. And ZiPS suggests Hannahan would be fine at 2B as well though I don't know if that defensive rating is reliable.

No I wouldn't want to go into next year with Hannahan as my 3B ... I'm just saying ZiPS says he wouldn't suck. I would be fine going in with a healthy Chavez should such a mythical critter exist.

Hmm, my explanation made no sense.

it's a feature, not a bug. :-)

And yeah, Gio Gonzalez doesn't look too good right now. Who was the other guy they got in that trade?

And Chris Gissell -- I remember using him as my 6th or 7th starter for a DMB team like 6-7 years ago.
   25. BourbonSamurai Is a Lazy Nogoodnik Posted: October 08, 2008 at 04:37 AM (#2974042)
They also got Fautino De Los Santos, who is injured I think, and Ryan Sweeney, who actually looked pretty good last year.
   26. rfloh Posted: October 08, 2008 at 06:00 AM (#2974072)
I'm more concerned with him getting hurt than I am by him repeating his 2008 with the bat.


He had shin issues this year too: the A's called it "shin splints", which could mean anything from some muscular pain, to a fracture.
   27. rfloh Posted: October 08, 2008 at 06:02 AM (#2974073)
Not at 3B if ZiPS is to be believed. Both Chavez and Hannahan project as just a bit below average


Well, the thing with Chavez is just how badly his back and shoulder are damaged, and how much he has healed. At this point, any statistical projections are pretty much random guesses.
   28. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 08, 2008 at 02:55 PM (#2974272)
Both Chavez and Hannahan project as just a bit below average

Brandon Wood -- .229/283/.393
Jack Hannahan - .247/.340/.373 in a tougher park to hit in.

I'm still trying to get my head around this one.
   29. Joey B. is being stalked by a (Gonfa) loon Posted: October 08, 2008 at 03:15 PM (#2974299)
If the A's win 80 games next year, I'll be in a state of disbelief. I'll go so far as to say there's almost no chance of it happening.
   30. AROM Posted: October 08, 2008 at 03:27 PM (#2974324)
I think they meant is there any way to account for the pickoffs in his ZiPS projection -- i.e. he'd have a lower ERA than his peripherals would lead you to believe either because he's removing some baserunners, they're not stealing and not taking the extra base because of short leads.


Take away time constraints, and I'd love to include it in the CHONE projections. All I would need is a datasource showing how many pickoffs every pitcher has, and come up with a formula and regression to predict next year's pickoffs. Right now I don't have that datasource. I guess I'd need to learn how to spyder the major and minor league gameday files.
   31. Danny Posted: October 08, 2008 at 03:37 PM (#2974332)
I'm still trying to get my head around this one.

Hannahan hit much, much better than Wood in 2007.

He had shin issues this year too: the A's called it "shin splints", which could mean anything from some muscular pain, to a fracture.

He's had a multitude of injuries over the past few years, including a relatively bad concussion. Maybe I'm putting too much weight on his late season resurgence, but I think he'll be around average (for his position) in 2009.

According to Dewan, Cust is 13 plays and 21 bases below average in the field over 1088.4 innings in 2007-08, so that's -16 runs per 162 games. Not necessarily *the* worst corner outfielder in MLB, but certainly in that neighborhood--about at the level where he's equally valuable as a DH and an outfielder. UZR is not yet available for the second half of 2008, but through July '08, Lichtman has him at -10 runs in 90 defensive games, which translates to -18 runs per 162. That's pretty close agreement between the two of them that he stinks.

Thanks. That's definitely poor. I wonder what it is that basic ZR and RZR are missing on him. Perhaps the A's pitchers have just induced easily fieldable BIP towards Cust?

I think they meant is there any way to account for the pickoffs in his ZiPS projection -- i.e. he'd have a lower ERA than his peripherals would lead you to believe either because he's removing some baserunners, they're not stealing and not taking the extra base because of short leads.


Yes, that's what I meant. Though it seems like Smith might face the same paradox the best defensive catchers face. Instead of saving runs with his pickoffs and good CS rate, he may simply shut down the running game altogether. In the first half last year, he had 9 SB, 9 CS, and 10 pickoffs. In the second half, he had just 2 SB, 3 CS, and 5 pickoffs. If people stop running on him and take smaller leads to avoid pickoffs, he won't save any runs on SB/CS/PK. Though I guess he'd prevent more people from taking extra bases on BIP given their smaller leads.

------

Jairo Garcia was downright awful after coming back from the DL, allowing a ~.950 OPS with more walks than Ks in 30 IP. I'd be more surprised by a sub-4.00 ERA in 2009 than I would be by season ending surgery.
   32. rfloh Posted: October 08, 2008 at 03:40 PM (#2974335)
Maybe I'm putting too much weight on his late season resurgence, but I think he'll be around average (for his position) in 2009.


Oh I agree, as long as he can stay healthy. I'm basically saying that this season's crappiness was likely injury related.
   33. Danny Posted: October 08, 2008 at 03:42 PM (#2974338)
Take away time constraints, and I'd love to include it in the CHONE projections. All I would need is a datasource showing how many pickoffs every pitcher has, and come up with a formula and regression to predict next year's pickoffs. Right now I don't have that datasource. I guess I'd need to learn how to spyder the major and minor league gameday files.


Baseball Reference has the data, but I don't know how easily spider-able it is.
   34. Danny Posted: October 08, 2008 at 03:49 PM (#2974345)
Dan, can we get a projection for Jesus Guzman? Thanks!
   35. karkface killah Posted: October 09, 2008 at 04:45 AM (#2975022)
Not a whole lot of strikeouts from that pitching staff.
   36. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: October 09, 2008 at 05:25 AM (#2975032)
Gonzalez is 22 years old and striking out a man an inning in both the big leagues and AAA. I think he'll be fine. His season may have been a little disappointing, but not nearly as much as Swisher's. Ryan Sweeney actually outhit Swisher.

Fautino De Los Santos started five games in the minors and went down injured (that seems to happen to a lot of pitchers the White Sox trade).
   37. Halofan Posted: October 09, 2008 at 06:40 AM (#2975055)
Hannahan born March 4, 1980
Wood born March 2, 1985
   38. Skinner! Posted: October 09, 2008 at 06:22 PM (#2975332)
What's with all the gio hate? A 22 yr old that K's a man an inning in the MLB is the profile you want. He's got some major control issues, but those are likely to decrease just through normal development. He might stink next year, but by 2010 he'll hopefully be at least league average (as a 24 yr old).
   39. Walt Davis Posted: October 10, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2976122)
What's with all the gio hate?

Hate? Recognizing that someone projects to an ERA a full 1.25 runs worse than an average starter now constitutes hate?

Man people are strange these days.

Anyway, it's precisely the projected K-rate that has me sayiing he "doesn't look too good right now." Did you notice that, for whatever reason (Dan?), ZiPS projects him to just 109 K in 151 IP? That's a league-average K-rate these days. His minor-league K-rate has been the main reason he's been considered a prospect. Furthermore, he projects far worse than Cahill, Anderson, Mazzarro, Gallagher, Eveleand and even Smith, Outman and Braden (most of whom have crappy projected K-rates -- Dan?). And Rodriguez and Simmons. While it's probably a wonderful thing for the A's, that Gonzalez is projected as the 11th best starter 25 and under in the system does not suggest he has a bright future.

If Beane believes in ZiPS, I'd expect to see Gonzalez traded this offseason.
   40. Halofan Posted: October 13, 2008 at 08:42 PM (#2980656)
Does the Fremont development go thru in the current economic climate?
   41. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: October 13, 2008 at 09:13 PM (#2980711)
Must have something to do with the ballpark. I'd call Swisher's 2006 a breakout year, but then he's regressed. He'd make a nice Angel next year since they'll need new corner outfielders (assuming Vlad at DH, Torii in center, Rivera & GA gone, GMJ & Willits on the bench). Since they were playing Wise over him in the playoffs, maybe KW will sell low on him, possibly for another shortstop to replace Cabrera.


Yeah, cause Williams has such a habit of selling low on folks. That's why he has such a hard time making good trades.
   42. sardonic Posted: October 13, 2008 at 09:52 PM (#2980810)
What is the conventional wisdom on Carlos Gonzalez? He seemed to show flashes of competence last year, with good doubles power, speed and defense, but he grades out as only FR in CF (which I'm assuming is worse than average) and I see that his final season totals were unimpressive. Still, he's young, and as someone who watched the games last season I would have seen him as a big part of the A's future.
   43. A triple short of the cycle Posted: October 15, 2008 at 12:38 AM (#2982014)
Does the Fremont development go thru in the current economic climate?

It had been looking less and less likely before the meltdown. The only thing going for the project is that the land is readily available. Which is obviously very important, but the location is almost unworkable. It would be a travesty, in this day and age, in the Bay Area no less, to build a sports stadium with no public transit access. Wolff has suggested that a BART station will be built at the new stadium location, but a look at the map is all it takes to dispel that idea - the proposed location is not near the BART line. And if Wolff thinks he can get a spur built off the BART mainline track, I'd say he's dreaming. As far as I can tell, Wolff proposed the move to Fremont some time ago, everyone pointed out what a bad idea it was, and nothing has really progressed since then.
   44. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 18, 2008 at 03:25 AM (#2986166)
Player Spotlight - Jack Cust
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jason Thompson, Jim Gentile


Worth noting that neither Thompson or Gentile lasted long after their age-30 seasons.

-- MWE
   45. xbhaskarx Posted: October 21, 2008 at 05:27 AM (#2990659)
No way Gio pitches that badly.
   46. Danny Posted: October 21, 2008 at 06:50 PM (#2991181)
Hate? Recognizing that someone projects to an ERA a full 1.25 runs worse than an average starter now constitutes hate?

Man people are strange these days.

Anyway, it's precisely the projected K-rate that has me sayiing he "doesn't look too good right now." Did you notice that, for whatever reason (Dan?), ZiPS projects him to just 109 K in 151 IP? That's a league-average K-rate these days. His minor-league K-rate has been the main reason he's been considered a prospect. Furthermore, he projects far worse than Cahill, Anderson, Mazzarro, Gallagher, Eveleand and even Smith, Outman and Braden (most of whom have crappy projected K-rates -- Dan?). And Rodriguez and Simmons. While it's probably a wonderful thing for the A's, that Gonzalez is projected as the 11th best starter 25 and under in the system does not suggest he has a bright future.


It's relatively easy to be more optimistic on Gio than ZiPS is.

In 2008, he put up the 3rd best FIP (3.92) in the PCL (AAA) among the 47 pitchers who qualified (Strangely, Dan Meyer was second). He was also the third youngest pitcher in the league to throw 100+ IP.

In 2007, he had the 2nd lowest FIP (2.78) in the Southern League (AA), while being the 2nd youngest SP in the league.

Pitchers don't have the same general aging patterns as hitters, but it's not hard to like Gio as a guy who has performed very well against older competition.
   47. Skinner! Posted: October 21, 2008 at 07:39 PM (#2991238)
It's relatively easy to be more optimistic on Gio than ZiPS is.


I agree. While he definitely had problems in MLB this year, I do question any assessment that his long term prognosis is poor because of that. Is he going to do well this year if he's in MLB? Probably not. The fact he doesn't average over 90 mph on his fastball raises questions, but then his curve is supposed to be top notch. And the fact that he continued to strike out batters at such a high rate is an indicator of future success.

Jonathan Sanchez was really bad in 07, and then was very good for a substantial portion of last year before he imploded. I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzalez has a similar progression, although I think his breakthrough year will be 2010.
   48. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 02, 2009 at 05:52 PM (#3065678)
2 requests, if you please: Jesus Guzman (echoing Danny @ 34) and another guy who interests him, C Joel Galarraga (has only played in Cuba and Mexico - data from the latter suggests he's above replacement level*).

* YMMV depending on your lg factors, of course.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Sheer Tim Foli
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.7877 seconds
66 querie(s) executed