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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

2009 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

The Padres were one of the biggest disappointments in baseball in 2008, dropping from an 89-win season to a 63-win season, better than only the Nats and Mariners and probably the weakest schedule of the trio.

The Friars should get some type of dead cat bounce, but dead cats don’t bounce that high and it’s hard to see the team exceeding 70 wins without some luck.

Unlike some other terrible teams, the Padres are held back more by circumstances beyond their control moreso than poor decision-making.  John Moores is liquidating his property left and right because of a pending divorce and while Jeff Moorad’s group is in negotiations for the sale of the franchise, it could take some time and until then, the Padres are going to be shopping at the dollar store and pawning whatever they can.

The team has some gigantic holes that they are only allowed to fill cheaply and from within, but they just don’t have the players yet.  One major problem is that the players closest to contributing, Blanks and Kulbacki, don’t play positions where they have the holes.  Kulbacki is probably the eventual Giles replacement, but they’re probably going to trade Blanks, though given the Padres situation, I wouldn’t be surprised if they seriously explored trading Gonzalez next winter.

The rotation is a complete mess.  They’re a little better off than the Orioles, but not by much.  The only bright spot is that Young should pitch more than projected below as he missed time mainly due to atypical pitcher injuries, a strained forearm and a line drive to his face, much less worrying than the usual vague tendinitis that you sometimes see reported before Tommy John surgery.

Ivan Nova has a real chance to stick given the rotation is weak enough that the unsigned Tomko would actually help the team out.  The team will keep Everth Cabrera around for awhile, perhaps a little slow to send him back after noting Shane Victorino actually becoming a player.  Most players that hit like Shane Victorino in 2002 don’t hit like Shane Victorino in 2008, so the Padres will hopefully not be too concerned about a repeat.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Eliezer Alfonzo       c   30 .243 .331 .369 76 255 21 62 12 1 6 28 30 67 1 1   89   Av

FAIR
Nicholas Hundley       c   25 .233 .280 .401 108 399 47 93 17 1 16 61 25 89 0 1   84   Av

POOR
Jose Lobaton#        c   24 .214 .270 .339 98 336 32 72 15 0 9 37 27 96 0 1   66   Fr
Luke Carlin#        c   28 .207 .300 .287 79 237 22 49 11 1 2 20 30 70 0 1   62   Vg
Colt Morton         c   27 .196 .264 .313 66 214 20 42 10 0 5 22 17 74 0 0   58   Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Adrian Gonzalez*      1b 27 .280 .360 .505 150 572 92 160 34 1 31 114 68 128 0 0 134 Av

FAIR
Kyle Blanks         1b 22 .260 .316 .429 134 531 65 138 20 2 22 90 33 117 6 2 102 Fr
Peter Ciofrone*      3b 25 .269 .325 .404 127 490 70 132 17 2 15 56 33 83 2 2   99 Av
Brian Myrow*        1b 32 .249 .341 .379 90 277 35 69 13 1 7 39 38 70 0 0   99 Fr

POOR
Justin Huber         lf 26 .244 .303 .386 99 316 27 77 15 0 10 40 23 88 0 0   88 Fr
Vince Sinisi*        rf 27 .250 .295 .342 94 360 32 90 16 1 5 34 22 66 4 1   74 Fr
Brett Dowdy         ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4   75 Av
Colt Morton         c   27 .196 .264 .313 66 214 20 42 10 0 5 22 17 74 0 0   58 Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

FAIR
Edgar Gonzalez       2b 31 .260 .323 .379 118 311 30 81 14 1 7 32 26 79 2 5   92 Av

POOR
Matt Antonelli       2b 24 .235 .314 .343 140 540 71 127 18 2 12 49 57 112 16 6   80 Fr
Craig Stansberry       2b 27 .230 .310 .351 109 379 48 87 18 2 8 41 42 93 8 5   81 Av
Luis Rodriguez#      ss 29 .263 .315 .333 80 213 21 56 10 1 1 12 16 18 1 1   78 Av
Brett Dowdy         ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4   75 Fr
Luke Carlin#        c   28 .207 .300 .287 79 237 22 49 11 1 2 20 30 70 0 1   62 Pr
Sean Kazmar         ss 24 .210 .262 .290 133 480 48 101 18 1 6 39 31 96 9 2   51 Av
Everth Cabrera#      2b 22 .205 .260 .259 95 390 34 80 10 1 3 20 24 104 42 13   43 Vg

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Chase Headley#        lf 25 .264 .333 .439 142 538 69 142 33 2 19 66 49 152 2 0 110 Av

AVERAGE
Kevin Kouzmanoff       3b 27 .270 .321 .455 131 486 54 131 27 3 19 85 29 99 1 1 109 Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Peter Ciofrone*      3b 25 .269 .325 .404 127 490 70 132 17 2 15 56 33 83 2 2   99 Fr

FAIR
Edgar Gonzalez       2b 31 .260 .323 .379 118 311 30 81 14 1 7 32 26 79 2 5   92 Av

POOR
Matt Antonelli       2b 24 .235 .314 .343 140 540 71 127 18 2 12 49 57 112 16 6   80 Av
Craig Stansberry       2b 27 .230 .310 .351 109 379 48 87 18 2 8 41 42 93 8 5   81 Fr
Luis Rodriguez#      ss 29 .263 .315 .333 80 213 21 56 10 1 1 12 16 18 1 1   78 Av
Brett Dowdy         ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4   75 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

FAIR
Craig Stansberry       2b 27 .230 .310 .351 109 379 48 87 18 2 8 41 42 93 8 5   81 Fr
Luis Rodriguez#      ss 29 .263 .315 .333 80 213 21 56 10 1 1 12 16 18 1 1   78 Fr
Brett Dowdy         ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4   75 Pr

POOR
Sean Kazmar         ss 24 .210 .262 .290 133 480 48 101 18 1 6 39 31 96 9 2   51 Fr
Everth Cabrera#      2b 22 .205 .260 .259 95 390 34 80 10 1 3 20 24 104 42 13   43 Av

————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+  LF RF

VERY GOOD
Brian Giles*        rf 37 .292 .381 .431 120 466 67 136 28 2 11 53 66 49 2 3 122     Vg
Jody Gerut*          cf 31 .286 .346 .462 99 329 44 94 18 2 12 39 30 49 5 2 119 Av Av

AVERAGE
Chase Headley#        lf 25 .264 .333 .439 142 538 69 142 33 2 19 66 49 152 2 0 110 Av  
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

FAIR
Peter Ciofrone*      3b 25 .269 .325 .404 127 490 70 132 17 2 15 56 33 83 2 2   99 Av Av
Scott Hairston       lf 29 .237 .302 .456 116 316 40 75 18 3 15 31 28 83 2 1 104 Av  

POOR
Chip Ambres         rf 29 .235 .310 .387 98 344 45 81 15 2 11 42 36 88 5 1   90 Vg Fr
Kellen Kulbacki*      rf 23 .247 .305 .404 94 361 39 89 12 0 15 48 29 90 1 3   92 Fr Fr
Will Venable*        cf 26 .255 .307 .370 130 487 59 124 19 2 11 57 33 107 18 2   85 Av Av
Edgar Gonzalez       2b 31 .260 .323 .379 118 311 30 81 14 1 7 32 26 79 2 5   92 Av  
Justin Huber         lf 26 .244 .303 .386 99 316 27 77 15 0 10 40 23 88 0 0   88 Fr Fr
Chad Huffman         lf 24 .238 .305 .362 134 516 63 123 20 1 14 65 45 114 1 0   82 Av Av
Vince Sinisi*        rf 27 .250 .295 .342 94 360 32 90 16 1 5 34 22 66 4 1   74 Fr Fr
Brett Dowdy         ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4   75 Fr Fr
Drew Macias*        cf 26 .230 .301 .329 140 486 55 112 17 2 9 49 45 101 16 6   73 Vg Vg
Cedric Hunter*        cf 21 .247 .281 .329 123 523 51 129 17 1 8 57 25 74 11 6   67 Vg  
Luis Durango#        lf 23 .264 .310 .291 98 402 50 106 6 1 1 21 27 59 15 10   66 Av  

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Jody Gerut*          cf 31 .286 .346 .462 99 329 44 94 18 2 12 39 30 49 5 2 119 Fr

AVERAGE
Scott Hairston       lf 29 .237 .302 .456 116 316 40 75 18 3 15 31 28 83 2 1 104 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Chip Ambres         rf 29 .235 .310 .387 98 344 45 81 15 2 11 42 36 88 5 1   90 Fr
Will Venable*        cf 26 .255 .307 .370 130 487 59 124 19 2 11 57 33 107 18 2   85 Fr

POOR
Vince Sinisi*        rf 27 .250 .295 .342 94 360 32 90 16 1 5 34 22 66 4 1   74 Pr
Brett Dowdy         ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4   75 Fr
Drew Macias*        cf 26 .230 .301 .329 140 486 55 112 17 2 9 49 45 101 16 6   73 Av
Cedric Hunter*        cf 21 .247 .281 .329 123 523 51 129 17 1 8 57 25 74 11 6   67 Av
Luis Durango#        lf 23 .264 .310 .291 98 402 50 106 6 1 1 21 27 59 15 10   66 Fr

* - Hits Left
# - Switch Hitter

—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

TOP THIRD
Jake Peavy           28   3.23 14   8 28 28   178.1 154   64 17   54 184 123

MIDDLE THIRD
Chris Young           30   3.98   7   7 23 23   129.0 113   57 18   58 121 100
—————————————————————————————————————————————

BOTTOM THIRD
Enrique Gonzalez       26   4.70   6   9 32 20   134.0 146   70 13   51   85   84
Brett Tomko           36   4.85   5   8 31 16   104.0 115   56 16   31   75   82
Wade LeBlanc*        24   4.96   9 14 30 29   156.0 168   86 26   49 121   80
Cha Seung Baek         29   4.97   5   7 21 17   105.0 114   58 17   33   67   80
Josh Geer           26   5.03   8 13 29 28   177.0 213   99 23   47   88   79
Steve Garrison*        22   5.06   6 10 27 27   137.0 154   77 20   44   79   78
Chad Reineke         27   5.15   5   8 27 19   117.0 125   67 18   54   87   77
Josh Banks           26   5.19   7 11 28 25   149.0 173   86 26   38   88   76
Charlie Haeger         25   5.19   7 12 27 22   149.0 161   86 18   85   91   76
Ivan Nova           22   5.24   7 12 25 24   134.0 158   78 18   51   59   76
Cesar Ramos*          25   5.25   7 12 27 26   151.0 177   88 18   53   77   76
Will Inman           22   5.28   6 12 29 29   145.0 152   85 23   73 110   75
Michael Ekstrom       25   5.46   7 13 38 23   145.0 175   88 19   55   83   73
Virgil Vasquez         27   5.81   6 13 24 24   141.0 166   91 32   45   91   68
Cesar Carrillo         25   7.16   1   4 11 11   44.0   55   35   9   31   22   55

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

MIDDLE THIRD
Heath Bell           31   3.21   6   3 65   0   73.0   65   26   6   26   74 124
Justin Hampson*        29   3.60   4   3 50   0   55.0   55   22   3   19   38 110
Jackson Quezada       22   3.72   3   3 45   0   46.0   46   19   3   17   30 107
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Cla Meredith         26   3.77   4   3 81   0   86.0   91   36   7   23   57 105
Chris Britton         26   3.86   3   2 48   0   63.0   62   27   7   21   49 103
Joe Thatcher*        27   3.97   5   5 61   0   68.0   69   30   5   22   57 100

BOTTOM THIRD
Mark Worrell         26   4.23   3   4 57   0   66.0   63   31   8   33   66   94
Brian Falkenborg       31   4.28   4   4 57   0   61.0   62   29   7   22   58   93
Bryan Corey           35   4.29   3   4 59   0   65.0   67   31   7   23   45   92
Kevin Correia         28   4.50   4   6 35 12   96.0   98   48 12   41   69   88
Carlos Guevara         27   4.67   2   2 41   0   54.0   55   28   7   26   50   85
Scott Patterson       30   4.75   2   2 42   1   55.0   56   29 10   19   49   84
Sean Henn*          28   5.00   1   2 20   3   36.0   39   20   3   20   25   79
Oneli Perez           26   5.07   2   4 51   0   71.0   72   40 13   33   66   78
Ernesto Frieri         23   5.95   3   8 45 13   115.0 131   76 25   44   76   67

* - Throws Left

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Adrian Gonzalez
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .280 .360 .505 150 572 92 160 34 1 31 114 68 128 0 0 134

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Kent Hrbek, Boog Powell, Carlos Delgado

ODDIBE

Offense     %
Top Quintile 44
2nd Quintile 43
Mid Quintile 9
4th Quintile 3
Low Quintile 1

OPS+      %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160       3     >.400   4     >10   0     >200   0
>140       33     >.375   27     >5     1     >150   78
>130       61     >.350   67
>120       84     >.325   93     2B     %
>110       95     >.300   99     >45   3
>100       99               >30   69
>90       100
>80       100
>60       100

BA         %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350       0     >.550   8     >50   0     >70   0
>.325       2     >.500   54     >40   6     >50   0
>.300       19     >.450   95     >30   49     >30   0
>.275       60     >.400   100   >20   96     >10   0
>.250       91     >.350   100   >10   100

(Based on Projected PA)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Kevin Kouzmanoff
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .270 .321 .455 131 486 54 131 27 3 19 85 29 99 1 1 109

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Tim Wallach, Brook Jacoby, Jeff Kent

ODDIBE

Offense     %
Top Quintile 8
2nd Quintile 41
Mid Quintile 34
4th Quintile 14
Low Quintile 3

OPS+      %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160       0     >.400   0     >10   0     >200   0
>140       1     >.375   1     >5     9     >150   4
>130       4     >.350   11
>120       18     >.325   43     2B     %
>110       47     >.300   81     >45   0
>100       79               >30   26
>90       96
>80       100
>60       100

BA         %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350       0     >.550   0     >50   0     >70   0
>.325       1     >.500   7     >40   0     >50   0
>.300       9     >.450   53     >30   1     >30   0
>.275       39     >.400   96     >20   35     >10   0
>.250       80     >.350   100   >10   97

(Based on Projected PA)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Jake Peavy
              ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       3.23 14   8 28 28 178.1 154   64 17   54 184   123

Top Near-Age Comps:  Jose Rijo, Dean Chance, Bert Blyleven

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 74
Mid 1/3 18
Bot 1/3 8

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   23

<31 4
>

140   31

<41 11
>

130   42

<51 33
>

120   53

<62 63
>

110   64

<72 82
>

100   73

<82 92
>

90   80
>80   96     HR     %
>70   99     <14 37
<21 68
K % <27 85
>185   57     <33 94
>164   80
>144   96
>123   100

(Based on Projected IP)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Chris Young
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       3.98   7   7 23 23 129 113   57 18   58 121   100

Top Near-Age Comps:  Pete Harnisch, Gil Meche, Darren Dreifort

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 47
Mid 1/3 25
Bot 1/3 28

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   17     <22 0
>140   22     <29 0
>130   29     <36 1
>120   38     <43 3
>110   47     <50 11
>100   58     <57 23
>90   70
>80   81     HR     %
>70   90     <10 12
<14 27
K % <19 48
>129   70     <23 62
>115   85
>100   94
>86   98

(Based on Projected IP)
——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ >140

Gonzalez   33
Gerut     19
Giles     15

OBP >.400

Giles     27
Gerut     9
Gonzalez   4

SLG >.550

Gonzalez   8
Gerut     6
Hairston   4

BA >.325

Gerut     13
Giles     13
Ciofrone   5

2B >45

Headley   5
Gonzalez   5
Giles     3

3B >10

HR >30

Gonzalez   49
Blanks   14
Headley   8

SB >50

Cabrera   28
Venable   6
Durango   3

ERA+ >140

Bell     44
Peavy     41
Hampson   26

K/9 >9

Bell     70
Young     70
Falkenborg 51

BB/9 <1.5

Britten 17
Meredith 15
Geer 12

HR/9 <0.7

Quezada 78
Hampson 76
Meredith 60

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions


ZiPS 2009 Archive


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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2009 at 04:46 PM | 43 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:06 PM (#3051616)
Wait, Jody Gerut still plays baseball? And is excellent?
   2. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:12 PM (#3051625)
Wait, Jody Gerut still plays baseball? And is excellent?

Yep. He very quietly excelled last year.
   3. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:14 PM (#3051630)
Will wonders never cease.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:02 PM (#3051672)
Jody Gerut and Cody Ross were cheap mid-season waiver wire pickups that greatly helped my NL only team
   5. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:27 PM (#3051700)
Probably 2009's best bet to exceed 100 losses, especially if they "succeed" in trading Peavy.

And I'll take the under on the Gerut and Giles projections. Really, their only position player that I'd really want on my team is Gonzalez.
   6. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:32 PM (#3051709)
And I'll take the under on the Gerut and Giles projections. Really, their only position player that I'd really want on my team is Gonzalez.

I'd take Chase Headley, too.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:41 PM (#3051719)
Chris Burke and Mark Prior just signed with the Padres if you want to include them.

I'll do Prior:

Age 28 0.00 ERA 0-0 0 G 0 GS 0 INN 0 H 0 ER 0 HR 0 BB 0 K undefined ERA+

Top Near Age Comps: Darren Dreifort, Carl Pavano
   8. RJ in TO Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:45 PM (#3051723)
And I'll take the under on the Gerut and Giles projections. Really, their only position player that I'd really want on my team is Gonzalez.

I'd take Chase Headley, too.


Kouzmanoff could also be useful. Other than that, that's a really ungood team.
   9. Guapo Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:58 PM (#3051742)
The only bright spot is that Young should pitch more than projected below as he missed time mainly due to atypical pitcher injuries, a strained forearm and a line drive to his face, much less worrying than the usual vague tendinitis that you sometimes see reported before Tommy John surgery.

I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.
   10. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3051744)
Headley and Kouzmanoff are useful league-average (maybe slightly above league-average, depending on defense) players, but when I said "really want" I was thinking more a long the guys that are stars, not just useful.
   11. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:14 PM (#3051770)
I think it'll be tough for any team in the NL West to come in over 100 losses. Wagers welcome.
   12. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:15 PM (#3051771)
Eh, 99 losses last season and they're worse this year. Redacted.
   13. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:16 PM (#3051774)
I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.

Is it weird that mine was not?
   14. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:20 PM (#3051779)
Is it weird that mine was not?

That just means you saw one of Carl Pavano's 7 starts this year.
   15. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:22 PM (#3051784)
That just means you saw one of Carl Pavano's 7 starts this year.

It would have been sad if younger Yankee fans weren't treated to their very own Ed Whitson. You guys should get on your knees and thank Jebus for Carl Pavano.
   16. 1k5v3L Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:24 PM (#3051786)
This lineup will look a lot better once the Padres trade for Eric Byrnes.
   17. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:25 PM (#3051789)
they're probably going to trade Blanks, though given the Padres situation, I wouldn't be surprised if they seriously explored trading Gonzalez next winter.


I think it'll happen sooner than that, especially if the Padres are not competitive at the start of the season and Blanks rakes at AAA. I truly expect Gonzalez to be gone by the trading deadline.

-- MWE
   18. Walt Davis Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:04 PM (#3051856)
Wait, Jody Gerut still plays baseball? And is excellent?

Nah, bbc just got at ZiPS when Dan wasn't looking. :-)

Anyway, while it would be defensively pretty horrible, that's not a bad lineup when everybody's healthy:

C: Alfonso
1B: Gonzalez
2B: Kouzmanoff (wasn't there talk of moving him last year?)
SS: whoever
3B: Headley
OF: Giles, Gerut, Hairston

Yes, that defense is probably too horrible for words and you'd want to find either a real CF or a real 2B. Is there really nobody out there who needs Kouzmanoff?
   19. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:31 PM (#3051896)
The thought of Kouzmanoff at second base brought a smile to my face.
   20. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:33 PM (#3051897)
Also, Alfonso will probably be the backup to Hundley (at least that's what KT is saying).
   21. ugen64 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:49 PM (#3051929)
Speaking of the Orioles, <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050726&c>I remember</a> the Orioles could have traded Sidney Ponson + cash for Adrian Gonzalez, but we didn't, because we were cheap and didn't want to pay too much of Ponson's salary. This is almost as bad as the Daniel Cabrera + Jorge Julio + Larry Bigbie for A.J. Burnett + Mike Lowell trade we could have pulled off, except we didn't want to pay Mike Lowell's salary because he was essentially included in the deal as a salary dump.

Oh, never change Orioles.
   22. ugen64 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:50 PM (#3051933)
Oh, also, I forgot to make the actual relevant point - Peavy + Young + 3 replacement starters is probably still a lot better than the Orioles' rotation, and I bet the Padres will be able to scrounge up a few starters that are above replacement level.
   23. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:53 PM (#3051938)
Oh, also, I forgot to make the actual relevant point - Peavy + Young + 3 replacement starters is probably still a lot better than the Orioles' rotation, and I bet the Padres will be able to scrounge up a few starters that are above replacement level.

It's something for Padre fans to celebrate, I guess.
   24. Scott Kazmir's breaking balls Posted: January 14, 2009 at 09:02 PM (#3051949)
I'll bet the under on Kouzmanoff. Like Burroughs before him, he has underwhelemed.
   25. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: January 14, 2009 at 09:09 PM (#3051964)
I'll go with that bet.
   26. mitchell Posted: January 15, 2009 at 02:49 AM (#3052307)
I'll do Prior:

Age 28 0.00 ERA 0-0 0 G 0 GS 0 INN 0 H 0 ER 0 HR 0 BB 0 K undefined ERA+


LOL!!!
   27. frenchredsox Posted: January 15, 2009 at 04:02 AM (#3052351)
Who the heck is Zackson Quezada to get such a nasty projection ??

Also no projection for (although injured) 154+ ERA-man Mike Adams ?

BTW this team is not as bad as some EG the Astros & if the Moorad group gets in there quick they have the resources to challenge in the weak West......
   28. frenchredsox Posted: January 15, 2009 at 04:16 AM (#3052359)
Oh, also, I forgot to make the actual relevant point - Peavy + Young + 3 replacement starters is probably still a lot better than the Orioles' rotation, and I bet the Padres will be able to scrounge up a few starters that are above replacement level.


Well yes n no .... because the Padres no #3 is actually in Boston's AAA team,the no 4 is a FA (& is Tomko *shudders to think of him as a 4 starter for ANYONE*) whereas the O's did sign Uehara & do have SOME real talent in the minors almost ready eg Tillman/Hernandez or Arrieta --- the Friars have nobody even close ?

As of today:
SDP rotation is Peavy,Young,Baek,Geer,Reineke or Banks
O's rotation is Guthrie,Uehara,Hendrickson,Burres,Liz or Olson.

Clear that Friars are better going into 09 season but also that AS IT stands today by 10/11 the Orioles will be in far better shape & that is without the Peavy situation included.
   29. me Posted: January 15, 2009 at 05:35 AM (#3052392)
I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.


You are confusing it with a torn labia.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2009 at 06:04 AM (#3052418)
The Quezada projection was surprising. The Padres were clearly worried about losing him in the Rule 5 draft, so maybe it shouldn't be.
   31. thetailor Posted: January 15, 2009 at 07:06 AM (#3052456)
What ever happened to Justin Huber? He hit .271/.414/.487 as a 21 year old AA catcher, then .343/.432/.570 in AA the next year in 330 ABs before moving up to AAA and hitting .274/.374/.531. Did he get hurt? He hit very well in AA and AAA at 21 and 22, over 650+ at-bats. Did he get hurt? Did he just suck? Have we been over this before?
   32. jayjay Posted: January 15, 2009 at 08:28 AM (#3052487)
Why is Headley's projection at third considered "very good" while Kouzmanoff's is "average"? They look virtually identical to me: 110 OPS+ versus 109.
   33. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 15, 2009 at 02:06 PM (#3052538)
I don't know much about Huber, but his stats suggest a guy who's never been given a fair shake in the majors. He looks like he'd profile as a .260/.330/.520 hitter. That has to be useful for some team, even if he's stuck at 1B.
   34. Loren F. Posted: January 15, 2009 at 05:19 PM (#3052693)
Is there a player more underrated by the mainstream than Brian Giles?

In 2009 he should pass 300 Win Shares, which (say what you will about the flaws in that system) generally means a guy is approaching contention for the Hall of Fame / borderline candidacy. Now, I'm not saying Giles is a Hall of Famer -- not enough Black or Gray Ink, less than 300 HR so far, just 7 seasons playing 140+ games, just 2 All-Star nods -- but Giles is certainly HOVG and will last all of one or two HoF ballots before falling off.
   35. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 15, 2009 at 05:23 PM (#3052700)
Huber was never that great (as a 1B) and is getting significantly worse. Make him a backstop again and we'll talk...
   36. Greg K Posted: January 16, 2009 at 07:38 AM (#3053442)
I think in another world Brian Giles could be a real Hall of Fame candidate
If he started somewhere other than Cleveland where he was blocked and didn't get a real start until he was 26
If he finished his career somewhere other than PETCO

I guess he does have inherently under-rate-able skills though...
   37. Steini's Famous Garbage Pitch Posted: January 16, 2009 at 09:35 PM (#3053915)
I think they should think about converting a reliever to starter, this worked reasonably well with Gaudin, Looper and Wainwright (although the latter used to be a starter).

I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.

Larry David already covered this subject. If this was The Simpsons seasons 1-8 and not real life, Mr. Burns' lawyer would beat you up now.
   38. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 16, 2009 at 09:48 PM (#3053933)
Is there a player more underrated by the mainstream than Brian Giles?

Haven't we been having this discussion for at least 10 years now?

Anyway, it's hard to get behind a player for HOF when his most memorable hits came against his former girlfriend.

But strictly on the numbers, he won't have anywhere near enough counting stats to merit any sort of serious consideration for the HOF from the BBWAA.
   39. baseballfreako Posted: January 18, 2009 at 06:42 AM (#3054574)
I agree with Bukanier
   40. jayjay Posted: January 22, 2009 at 12:55 PM (#3057777)
No Trevor Hoffman signing analysis? We get a Willie Bloomquist cartoon but no numbers for the new Brewers' closer? :(

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