BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

2009 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

The Padres were one of the biggest disappointments in baseball in 2008, dropping from an 89-win season to a 63-win season, better than only the Nats and Mariners and probably the weakest schedule of the trio.

The Friars should get some type of dead cat bounce, but dead cats don’t bounce that high and it’s hard to see the team exceeding 70 wins without some luck.

Unlike some other terrible teams, the Padres are held back more by circumstances beyond their control moreso than poor decision-making. John Moores is liquidating his property left and right because of a pending divorce and while Jeff Moorad’s group is in negotiations for the sale of the franchise, it could take some time and until then, the Padres are going to be shopping at the dollar store and pawning whatever they can.

The team has some gigantic holes that they are only allowed to fill cheaply and from within, but they just don’t have the players yet. One major problem is that the players closest to contributing, Blanks and Kulbacki, don’t play positions where they have the holes. Kulbacki is probably the eventual Giles replacement, but they’re probably going to trade Blanks, though given the Padres situation, I wouldn’t be surprised if they seriously explored trading Gonzalez next winter.

The rotation is a complete mess. They’re a little better off than the Orioles, but not by much. The only bright spot is that Young should pitch more than projected below as he missed time mainly due to atypical pitcher injuries, a strained forearm and a line drive to his face, much less worrying than the usual vague tendinitis that you sometimes see reported before Tommy John surgery.

Ivan Nova has a real chance to stick given the rotation is weak enough that the unsigned Tomko would actually help the team out. The team will keep Everth Cabrera around for awhile, perhaps a little slow to send him back after noting Shane Victorino actually becoming a player. Most players that hit like Shane Victorino in 2002 don’t hit like Shane Victorino in 2008, so the Padres will hopefully not be too concerned about a repeat.

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CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Eliezer Alfonzo c 30 .243 .331 .369 76 255 21 62 12 1 6 28 30 67 1 1 89 Av

FAIR
Nicholas Hundley c 25 .233 .280 .401 108 399 47 93 17 1 16 61 25 89 0 1 84 Av

POOR
Jose Lobaton# c 24 .214 .270 .339 98 336 32 72 15 0 9 37 27 96 0 1 66 Fr
Luke Carlin# c 28 .207 .300 .287 79 237 22 49 11 1 2 20 30 70 0 1 62 Vg
Colt Morton c 27 .196 .264 .313 66 214 20 42 10 0 5 22 17 74 0 0 58 Fr

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FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Adrian Gonzalez* 1b 27 .280 .360 .505 150 572 92 160 34 1 31 114 68 128 0 0 134 Av

FAIR
Kyle Blanks 1b 22 .260 .316 .429 134 531 65 138 20 2 22 90 33 117 6 2 102 Fr
Peter Ciofrone* 3b 25 .269 .325 .404 127 490 70 132 17 2 15 56 33 83 2 2 99 Av
Brian Myrow* 1b 32 .249 .341 .379 90 277 35 69 13 1 7 39 38 70 0 0 99 Fr

POOR
Justin Huber lf 26 .244 .303 .386 99 316 27 77 15 0 10 40 23 88 0 0 88 Fr
Vince Sinisi* rf 27 .250 .295 .342 94 360 32 90 16 1 5 34 22 66 4 1 74 Fr
Brett Dowdy ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4 75 Av
Colt Morton c 27 .196 .264 .313 66 214 20 42 10 0 5 22 17 74 0 0 58 Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

FAIR
Edgar Gonzalez 2b 31 .260 .323 .379 118 311 30 81 14 1 7 32 26 79 2 5 92 Av

POOR
Matt Antonelli 2b 24 .235 .314 .343 140 540 71 127 18 2 12 49 57 112 16 6 80 Fr
Craig Stansberry 2b 27 .230 .310 .351 109 379 48 87 18 2 8 41 42 93 8 5 81 Av
Luis Rodriguez# ss 29 .263 .315 .333 80 213 21 56 10 1 1 12 16 18 1 1 78 Av
Brett Dowdy ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4 75 Fr
Luke Carlin# c 28 .207 .300 .287 79 237 22 49 11 1 2 20 30 70 0 1 62 Pr
Sean Kazmar ss 24 .210 .262 .290 133 480 48 101 18 1 6 39 31 96 9 2 51 Av
Everth Cabrera# 2b 22 .205 .260 .259 95 390 34 80 10 1 3 20 24 104 42 13 43 Vg

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Chase Headley# lf 25 .264 .333 .439 142 538 69 142 33 2 19 66 49 152 2 0 110 Av

AVERAGE
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3b 27 .270 .321 .455 131 486 54 131 27 3 19 85 29 99 1 1 109 Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Peter Ciofrone* 3b 25 .269 .325 .404 127 490 70 132 17 2 15 56 33 83 2 2 99 Fr

FAIR
Edgar Gonzalez 2b 31 .260 .323 .379 118 311 30 81 14 1 7 32 26 79 2 5 92 Av

POOR
Matt Antonelli 2b 24 .235 .314 .343 140 540 71 127 18 2 12 49 57 112 16 6 80 Av
Craig Stansberry 2b 27 .230 .310 .351 109 379 48 87 18 2 8 41 42 93 8 5 81 Fr
Luis Rodriguez# ss 29 .263 .315 .333 80 213 21 56 10 1 1 12 16 18 1 1 78 Av
Brett Dowdy ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4 75 Av

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SHORTSTOPS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

FAIR
Craig Stansberry 2b 27 .230 .310 .351 109 379 48 87 18 2 8 41 42 93 8 5 81 Fr
Luis Rodriguez# ss 29 .263 .315 .333 80 213 21 56 10 1 1 12 16 18 1 1 78 Fr
Brett Dowdy ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4 75 Pr

POOR
Sean Kazmar ss 24 .210 .262 .290 133 480 48 101 18 1 6 39 31 96 9 2 51 Fr
Everth Cabrera# 2b 22 .205 .260 .259 95 390 34 80 10 1 3 20 24 104 42 13 43 Av

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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ LF RF

VERY GOOD
Brian Giles* rf 37 .292 .381 .431 120 466 67 136 28 2 11 53 66 49 2 3 122 Vg
Jody Gerut* cf 31 .286 .346 .462 99 329 44 94 18 2 12 39 30 49 5 2 119 Av Av

AVERAGE
Chase Headley# lf 25 .264 .333 .439 142 538 69 142 33 2 19 66 49 152 2 0 110 Av
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

FAIR
Peter Ciofrone* 3b 25 .269 .325 .404 127 490 70 132 17 2 15 56 33 83 2 2 99 Av Av
Scott Hairston lf 29 .237 .302 .456 116 316 40 75 18 3 15 31 28 83 2 1 104 Av

POOR
Chip Ambres rf 29 .235 .310 .387 98 344 45 81 15 2 11 42 36 88 5 1 90 Vg Fr
Kellen Kulbacki* rf 23 .247 .305 .404 94 361 39 89 12 0 15 48 29 90 1 3 92 Fr Fr
Will Venable* cf 26 .255 .307 .370 130 487 59 124 19 2 11 57 33 107 18 2 85 Av Av
Edgar Gonzalez 2b 31 .260 .323 .379 118 311 30 81 14 1 7 32 26 79 2 5 92 Av
Justin Huber lf 26 .244 .303 .386 99 316 27 77 15 0 10 40 23 88 0 0 88 Fr Fr
Chad Huffman lf 24 .238 .305 .362 134 516 63 123 20 1 14 65 45 114 1 0 82 Av Av
Vince Sinisi* rf 27 .250 .295 .342 94 360 32 90 16 1 5 34 22 66 4 1 74 Fr Fr
Brett Dowdy ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4 75 Fr Fr
Drew Macias* cf 26 .230 .301 .329 140 486 55 112 17 2 9 49 45 101 16 6 73 Vg Vg
Cedric Hunter* cf 21 .247 .281 .329 123 523 51 129 17 1 8 57 25 74 11 6 67 Vg
Luis Durango# lf 23 .264 .310 .291 98 402 50 106 6 1 1 21 27 59 15 10 66 Av

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CENTERFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Jody Gerut* cf 31 .286 .346 .462 99 329 44 94 18 2 12 39 30 49 5 2 119 Fr

AVERAGE
Scott Hairston lf 29 .237 .302 .456 116 316 40 75 18 3 15 31 28 83 2 1 104 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Chip Ambres rf 29 .235 .310 .387 98 344 45 81 15 2 11 42 36 88 5 1 90 Fr
Will Venable* cf 26 .255 .307 .370 130 487 59 124 19 2 11 57 33 107 18 2 85 Fr

POOR
Vince Sinisi* rf 27 .250 .295 .342 94 360 32 90 16 1 5 34 22 66 4 1 74 Pr
Brett Dowdy ss 27 .244 .296 .342 110 401 51 98 14 2 7 30 26 84 11 4 75 Fr
Drew Macias* cf 26 .230 .301 .329 140 486 55 112 17 2 9 49 45 101 16 6 73 Av
Cedric Hunter* cf 21 .247 .281 .329 123 523 51 129 17 1 8 57 25 74 11 6 67 Av
Luis Durango# lf 23 .264 .310 .291 98 402 50 106 6 1 1 21 27 59 15 10 66 Fr

* - Hits Left
# - Switch Hitter

—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+

TOP THIRD
Jake Peavy 28 3.23 14 8 28 28 178.1 154 64 17 54 184 123

MIDDLE THIRD
Chris Young 30 3.98 7 7 23 23 129.0 113 57 18 58 121 100
—————————————————————————————————————————————

BOTTOM THIRD
Enrique Gonzalez 26 4.70 6 9 32 20 134.0 146 70 13 51 85 84
Brett Tomko 36 4.85 5 8 31 16 104.0 115 56 16 31 75 82
Wade LeBlanc* 24 4.96 9 14 30 29 156.0 168 86 26 49 121 80
Cha Seung Baek 29 4.97 5 7 21 17 105.0 114 58 17 33 67 80
Josh Geer 26 5.03 8 13 29 28 177.0 213 99 23 47 88 79
Steve Garrison* 22 5.06 6 10 27 27 137.0 154 77 20 44 79 78
Chad Reineke 27 5.15 5 8 27 19 117.0 125 67 18 54 87 77
Josh Banks 26 5.19 7 11 28 25 149.0 173 86 26 38 88 76
Charlie Haeger 25 5.19 7 12 27 22 149.0 161 86 18 85 91 76
Ivan Nova 22 5.24 7 12 25 24 134.0 158 78 18 51 59 76
Cesar Ramos* 25 5.25 7 12 27 26 151.0 177 88 18 53 77 76
Will Inman 22 5.28 6 12 29 29 145.0 152 85 23 73 110 75
Michael Ekstrom 25 5.46 7 13 38 23 145.0 175 88 19 55 83 73
Virgil Vasquez 27 5.81 6 13 24 24 141.0 166 91 32 45 91 68
Cesar Carrillo 25 7.16 1 4 11 11 44.0 55 35 9 31 22 55

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+

MIDDLE THIRD
Heath Bell 31 3.21 6 3 65 0 73.0 65 26 6 26 74 124
Justin Hampson* 29 3.60 4 3 50 0 55.0 55 22 3 19 38 110
Jackson Quezada 22 3.72 3 3 45 0 46.0 46 19 3 17 30 107
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Cla Meredith 26 3.77 4 3 81 0 86.0 91 36 7 23 57 105
Chris Britton 26 3.86 3 2 48 0 63.0 62 27 7 21 49 103
Joe Thatcher* 27 3.97 5 5 61 0 68.0 69 30 5 22 57 100

BOTTOM THIRD
Mark Worrell 26 4.23 3 4 57 0 66.0 63 31 8 33 66 94
Brian Falkenborg 31 4.28 4 4 57 0 61.0 62 29 7 22 58 93
Bryan Corey 35 4.29 3 4 59 0 65.0 67 31 7 23 45 92
Kevin Correia 28 4.50 4 6 35 12 96.0 98 48 12 41 69 88
Carlos Guevara 27 4.67 2 2 41 0 54.0 55 28 7 26 50 85
Scott Patterson 30 4.75 2 2 42 1 55.0 56 29 10 19 49 84
Sean Henn* 28 5.00 1 2 20 3 36.0 39 20 3 20 25 79
Oneli Perez 26 5.07 2 4 51 0 71.0 72 40 13 33 66 78
Ernesto Frieri 23 5.95 3 8 45 13 115.0 131 76 25 44 76 67

* - Throws Left

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Adrian Gonzalez
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .280 .360 .505 150 572 92 160 34 1 31 114 68 128 0 0 134

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Kent Hrbek, Boog Powell, Carlos Delgado

ODDIBE

Offense %
Top Quintile 44
2nd Quintile 43
Mid Quintile 9
4th Quintile 3
Low Quintile 1

OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 3 >.400 4 >10 0 >200 0
>140 33 >.375 27 >5 1 >150 78
>130 61 >.350 67
>120 84 >.325 93 2B %
>110 95 >.300 99 >45 3
>100 99 >30 69
>90 100
>80 100
>60 100

BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 8 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 2 >.500 54 >40 6 >50 0
>.300 19 >.450 95 >30 49 >30 0
>.275 60 >.400 100 >20 96 >10 0
>.250 91 >.350 100 >10 100

(Based on Projected PA)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Kevin Kouzmanoff
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .270 .321 .455 131 486 54 131 27 3 19 85 29 99 1 1 109

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Tim Wallach, Brook Jacoby, Jeff Kent

ODDIBE

Offense %
Top Quintile 8
2nd Quintile 41
Mid Quintile 34
4th Quintile 14
Low Quintile 3

OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0
>140 1 >.375 1 >5 9 >150 4
>130 4 >.350 11
>120 18 >.325 43 2B %
>110 47 >.300 81 >45 0
>100 79 >30 26
>90 96
>80 100
>60 100

BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 1 >.500 7 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 9 >.450 53 >30 1 >30 0
>.275 39 >.400 96 >20 35 >10 0
>.250 80 >.350 100 >10 97

(Based on Projected PA)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Jake Peavy
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 3.23 14 8 28 28 178.1 154 64 17 54 184 123

Top Near-Age Comps: Jose Rijo, Dean Chance, Bert Blyleven

ODDIBE

ERA %
Top 1/3 74
Mid 1/3 18
Bot 1/3 8

ERA+ % BB %
>150 23

<31 4
>

140 31

<41 11
>

130 42

<51 33
>

120 53

<62 63
>

110 64

<72 82
>

100 73

<82 92
>

90 80
>80 96 HR %
>70 99 <14 37
<21 68
K % <27 85
>185 57 <33 94
>164 80
>144 96
>123 100

(Based on Projected IP)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Chris Young
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 3.98 7 7 23 23 129 113 57 18 58 121 100

Top Near-Age Comps: Pete Harnisch, Gil Meche, Darren Dreifort

ODDIBE

ERA %
Top 1/3 47
Mid 1/3 25
Bot 1/3 28

ERA+ % BB %
>150 17 <22 0
>140 22 <29 0
>130 29 <36 1
>120 38 <43 3
>110 47 <50 11
>100 58 <57 23
>90 70
>80 81 HR %
>70 90 <10 12
<14 27
K % <19 48
>129 70 <23 62
>115 85
>100 94
>86 98

(Based on Projected IP)
——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ >140

Gonzalez 33
Gerut 19
Giles 15

OBP >.400

Giles 27
Gerut 9
Gonzalez 4

SLG >.550

Gonzalez 8
Gerut 6
Hairston 4

BA >.325

Gerut 13
Giles 13
Ciofrone 5

2B >45

Headley 5
Gonzalez 5
Giles 3

3B >10

HR >30

Gonzalez 49
Blanks 14
Headley 8

SB >50

Cabrera 28
Venable 6
Durango 3

ERA+ >140

Bell 44
Peavy 41
Hampson 26

K/9 >9

Bell 70
Young 70
Falkenborg 51

BB/9 <1.5

Britten 17
Meredith 15
Geer 12

HR/9 <0.7

Quezada 78
Hampson 76
Meredith 60

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

ZiPS 2009 Archive

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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2009 at 04:46 PM | 43 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:06 PM (#3051616)

Wait, Jody Gerut still plays baseball? And is excellent?

2. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:12 PM (#3051625)

Wait, Jody Gerut still plays baseball? And is excellent?

Yep. He very quietly excelled last year.

3. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: January 14, 2009 at 05:14 PM (#3051630)

Will wonders never cease.

4. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:02 PM (#3051672)

Jody Gerut and Cody Ross were cheap mid-season waiver wire pickups that greatly helped my NL only team

5. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:27 PM (#3051700)

Probably 2009's best bet to exceed 100 losses, especially if they "succeed" in trading Peavy.

And I'll take the under on the Gerut and Giles projections. Really, their only position player that I'd really want on my team is Gonzalez.

6. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:32 PM (#3051709)

And I'll take the under on the Gerut and Giles projections. Really, their only position player that I'd really want on my team is Gonzalez.

I'd take Chase Headley, too.

7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:41 PM (#3051719)

Chris Burke and Mark Prior just signed with the Padres if you want to include them.

I'll do Prior:

Age 28 0.00 ERA 0-0 0 G 0 GS 0 INN 0 H 0 ER 0 HR 0 BB 0 K undefined ERA+

Top Near Age Comps: Darren Dreifort, Carl Pavano

8. RJ in TO Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:45 PM (#3051723)

And I'll take the under on the Gerut and Giles projections. Really, their only position player that I'd really want on my team is Gonzalez.

I'd take Chase Headley, too.

Kouzmanoff could also be useful. Other than that, that's a really ungood team.

9. Guapo Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:58 PM (#3051742)

The only bright spot is that Young should pitch more than projected below as he missed time mainly due to atypical pitcher injuries, a strained forearm and a line drive to his face, much less worrying than the usual vague tendinitis that you sometimes see reported before Tommy John surgery.

I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.

10. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3051744)

Headley and Kouzmanoff are useful league-average (maybe slightly above league-average, depending on defense) players, but when I said "really want" I was thinking more a long the guys that are stars, not just useful.

11. Justin T is expanding the aperture of awareness Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:14 PM (#3051770)

I think it'll be tough for any team in the NL West to come in over 100 losses. Wagers welcome.

12. Justin T is expanding the aperture of awareness Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:15 PM (#3051771)

Eh, 99 losses last season and they're worse this year. Redacted.

13. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:16 PM (#3051774)

I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.

Is it weird that mine was not?

14. Cowboy Popup Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:20 PM (#3051779)

Is it weird that mine was not?

That just means you saw one of Carl Pavano's 7 starts this year.

15. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:22 PM (#3051784)

That just means you saw one of Carl Pavano's 7 starts this year.

It would have been sad if younger Yankee fans weren't treated to their very own Ed Whitson. You guys should get on your knees and thank Jebus for Carl Pavano.

16. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:24 PM (#3051786)

This lineup will look a lot better once the Padres trade for Eric Byrnes.

17. Mike Emeigh

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:25 PM (#3051789)

they're probably going to trade Blanks, though given the Padres situation, I wouldn't be surprised if they seriously explored trading Gonzalez next winter.

I think it'll happen sooner than that, especially if the Padres are not competitive at the start of the season and Blanks rakes at AAA. I truly expect Gonzalez to be gone by the trading deadline.

-- MWE

18. Walt Davis Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:04 PM (#3051856)

Wait, Jody Gerut still plays baseball? And is excellent?

Nah, bbc just got at ZiPS when Dan wasn't looking. :-)

Anyway, while it would be defensively pretty horrible, that's not a bad lineup when everybody's healthy:

C: Alfonso
1B: Gonzalez
2B: Kouzmanoff (wasn't there talk of moving him last year?)
SS: whoever
3B: Headley
OF: Giles, Gerut, Hairston

Yes, that defense is probably too horrible for words and you'd want to find either a real CF or a real 2B. Is there really nobody out there who needs Kouzmanoff?

19. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:31 PM (#3051896)

The thought of Kouzmanoff at second base brought a smile to my face.

20. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:33 PM (#3051897)

Also, Alfonso will probably be the backup to Hundley (at least that's what KT is saying).

21. ugen64 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:49 PM (#3051929)

Speaking of the Orioles, <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050726&c>I remember</a> the Orioles could have traded Sidney Ponson + cash for Adrian Gonzalez, but we didn't, because we were cheap and didn't want to pay too much of Ponson's salary. This is almost as bad as the Daniel Cabrera + Jorge Julio + Larry Bigbie for A.J. Burnett + Mike Lowell trade we could have pulled off, except we didn't want to pay Mike Lowell's salary because he was essentially included in the deal as a salary dump.

Oh, never change Orioles.

22. ugen64 Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:50 PM (#3051933)

Oh, also, I forgot to make the actual relevant point - Peavy + Young + 3 replacement starters is probably still a lot better than the Orioles' rotation, and I bet the Padres will be able to scrounge up a few starters that are above replacement level.

23. Shooty is in the Trust Tree

Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:53 PM (#3051938)

24. Scott Kazmir's breaking balls Posted: January 14, 2009 at 09:02 PM (#3051949)

I'll bet the under on Kouzmanoff. Like Burroughs before him, he has underwhelemed.

25. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: January 14, 2009 at 09:09 PM (#3051964)

I'll go with that bet.

26. mitchell Posted: January 15, 2009 at 02:49 AM (#3052307)

I'll do Prior:

Age 28 0.00 ERA 0-0 0 G 0 GS 0 INN 0 H 0 ER 0 HR 0 BB 0 K undefined ERA+

LOL!!!

27. frenchredsox Posted: January 15, 2009 at 04:02 AM (#3052351)

Who the heck is Zackson Quezada to get such a nasty projection ??

Also no projection for (although injured) 154+ ERA-man Mike Adams ?

BTW this team is not as bad as some EG the Astros & if the Moorad group gets in there quick they have the resources to challenge in the weak West......

28. frenchredsox Posted: January 15, 2009 at 04:16 AM (#3052359)

Oh, also, I forgot to make the actual relevant point - Peavy + Young + 3 replacement starters is probably still a lot better than the Orioles' rotation, and I bet the Padres will be able to scrounge up a few starters that are above replacement level.

Well yes n no .... because the Padres no #3 is actually in Boston's AAA team,the no 4 is a FA (& is Tomko *shudders to think of him as a 4 starter for ANYONE*) whereas the O's did sign Uehara & do have SOME real talent in the minors almost ready eg Tillman/Hernandez or Arrieta --- the Friars have nobody even close ?

As of today:
SDP rotation is Peavy,Young,Baek,Geer,Reineke or Banks
O's rotation is Guthrie,Uehara,Hendrickson,Burres,Liz or Olson.

Clear that Friars are better going into 09 season but also that AS IT stands today by 10/11 the Orioles will be in far better shape & that is without the Peavy situation included.

29. me Posted: January 15, 2009 at 05:35 AM (#3052392)

I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.

You are confusing it with a torn labia.

30. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 15, 2009 at 06:04 AM (#3052418)

The Quezada projection was surprising. The Padres were clearly worried about losing him in the Rule 5 draft, so maybe it shouldn't be.

31. thetailor Posted: January 15, 2009 at 07:06 AM (#3052456)

What ever happened to Justin Huber? He hit .271/.414/.487 as a 21 year old AA catcher, then .343/.432/.570 in AA the next year in 330 ABs before moving up to AAA and hitting .274/.374/.531. Did he get hurt? He hit very well in AA and AAA at 21 and 22, over 650+ at-bats. Did he get hurt? Did he just suck? Have we been over this before?

32. Jonk Posted: January 15, 2009 at 08:28 AM (#3052487)

Why is Headley's projection at third considered "very good" while Kouzmanoff's is "average"? They look virtually identical to me: 110 OPS+ versus 109.

33. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 15, 2009 at 02:06 PM (#3052538)

I don't know much about Huber, but his stats suggest a guy who's never been given a fair shake in the majors. He looks like he'd profile as a .260/.330/.520 hitter. That has to be useful for some team, even if he's stuck at 1B.

34. Loren F. Posted: January 15, 2009 at 05:19 PM (#3052693)

Is there a player more underrated by the mainstream than Brian Giles?

In 2009 he should pass 300 Win Shares, which (say what you will about the flaws in that system) generally means a guy is approaching contention for the Hall of Fame / borderline candidacy. Now, I'm not saying Giles is a Hall of Famer -- not enough Black or Gray Ink, less than 300 HR so far, just 7 seasons playing 140+ games, just 2 All-Star nods -- but Giles is certainly HOVG and will last all of one or two HoF ballots before falling off.

35. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 15, 2009 at 05:23 PM (#3052700)

Huber was never that great (as a 1B) and is getting significantly worse. Make him a backstop again and we'll talk...

36. Greg (U)K Posted: January 16, 2009 at 07:38 AM (#3053442)

I think in another world Brian Giles could be a real Hall of Fame candidate
If he started somewhere other than Cleveland where he was blocked and didn't get a real start until he was 26
If he finished his career somewhere other than PETCO

I guess he does have inherently under-rate-able skills though...

37. Steini's Famous Garbage Pitch Posted: January 16, 2009 at 09:35 PM (#3053915)

I think they should think about converting a reliever to starter, this worked reasonably well with Gaudin, Looper and Wainwright (although the latter used to be a starter).

I originally read this as "vagina tendinitis." For a brief moment, my entire understanding of how baseball is played was seismically disrupted.

Larry David already covered this subject. If this was The Simpsons seasons 1-8 and not real life, Mr. Burns' lawyer would beat you up now.

38. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 16, 2009 at 09:48 PM (#3053933)

Is there a player more underrated by the mainstream than Brian Giles?

Haven't we been having this discussion for at least 10 years now?

Anyway, it's hard to get behind a player for HOF when his most memorable hits came against his former girlfriend.

But strictly on the numbers, he won't have anywhere near enough counting stats to merit any sort of serious consideration for the HOF from the BBWAA.

39. baseballfreako Posted: January 18, 2009 at 06:42 AM (#3054574)

I agree with Bukanier

40. Jonk Posted: January 22, 2009 at 12:55 PM (#3057777)

No Trevor Hoffman signing analysis? We get a Willie Bloomquist cartoon but no numbers for the new Brewers' closer? :(

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Wednesday, January 14, 2009

2009 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

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