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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, October 26, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals

While the Cardinals disappointed after the All-Star Break, playing only .500 ball and dropping from a strong 2nd place contender in the NL Central to a very slight 4th behind the Astros, I don’t think I’d characterize the season as a failure.  The expectations weren’t that high and they got several players on the cheap (Ryan Ludwick and Kyle Lohse obviously, but Todd Wellemeyer also was a contributor) that turned out to be keepers.  Of course, Lohse isn’t cheap any more…

A lot depends on Chris Carpenter.  If resting this offseason is really enough to cure the nerve damage in his shoulder, the Cards, all caveats about future offseason moves noted, should be one of the top wild card contenders with the Brewers having great challenges at the top of the rotation and the Astros having serious depth issues and not a lot of flexibility.  I don’t expect them to be in the Sabathia hunt, but the team’s not deep enough to lose Looper and not replace him with another mid-rotation guy.  Sheets and Burnett might be out of the question, as I believe the losers in the Sabathia bidding are likely to throw money at the best starters left, but there are a couple of guys who might fly under the radar.

The middle infield is still a concern - Izturis came back from his injuries a middle-of-the-pack defensive player rather than an fantastic one.  I’m still shocked that Felipe Lopez essentially turned around his whole season after joining the Cardinals.  Lopez is a free agent, as is Izturis.  Data point #350 on Lenny Harris, Worst Hitting Coach Ever?

If the Cards decide to Win Now in 2009, enough minor league players had good seasons that they might be able to revisit acquiring Brian Roberts and be able to put together a convincing package that doesn’t include Rasmus.  Would the last-place Orioles really turn down a Perez-Jay-Todd type of package now?  Perhaps, but there are more things to tempt another team than there were a year ago, even with Adam Ottavino having a really disappointing season.  This is one of the more interesting teams to watch this offseason.

————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CATCHERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS CThr

AVERAGE
Steve Hill           1b 24 .263 .291 .446 98 395 42 104 19 1 17 60 15 80 0 0   Fr
————————————————————————————————————————————————-

BELOW-AVERAGE
Bryan Anderson*      c   22 .277 .324 .359 103 379 37 105 14 1 5 40 27 65 1 0   Av
Yadier Molina         c   26 .268 .325 .367 122 414 43 111 20 0 7 45 33 39 1 2   Vg

POOR
Mark L. Johnson*      c   33 .247 .323 .308 73 227 17 56 8 0 2 20 25 28 1 1   Vg
Jason LaRue         c   35 .190 .281 .302 66 179 16 34 8 0 4 18 18 44 1 0   Av

————————————————————————————————————————————————-
FIRST BASEMEN
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

EXCELLENT
Albert Pujols         1b 29 .328 .433 .606 151 545 103 179 38 1 37 120 97 57 5 3 Ex

AVERAGE
Troy Glaus           3b 32 .258 .360 .451 132 466 65 120 25 1 21 75 72 98 1 1 Av
Chris Duncan*        lf 28 .262 .348 .453 113 344 48 90 16 1 16 55 45 94 2 1 Fr
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Josh Phelps         1b 31 .271 .338 .453 115 362 41 98 19 1 15 55 31 81 2 1 Fr
Brett Wallace         3b 22 .275 .333 .424 126 502 71 138 27 0 16 69 29 84 2 1 Av
Allen Craig         3b 24 .267 .315 .443 134 535 68 143 28 0 22 81 33 80 4 2 Av

FAIR
Rico Washington*      3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 1 2 Av

POOR
Steve Hill           1b 24 .263 .291 .446 98 395 42 104 19 1 17 60 15 80 0 0 Fr
Brian Barden         ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 3 3 Av
Adam Kennedy*        2b 33 .259 .313 .334 93 290 31 75 14 1 2 27 21 39 7 3 Av
Mark L. Johnson*      c   33 .247 .323 .308 73 227 17 56 8 0 2 20 25 28 1 1 Av
Jason LaRue         c   35 .190 .281 .302 66 179 16 34 8 0 4 18 18 44 1 0 Fr

————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

AVERAGE
D’Angelo Jimenez#      2b 31 .257 .342 .392 87 237 29 61 12 1 6 29 30 28 3 1 Fr
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Felipe Lopez#        2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 20 9 Av

BELOW-AVERAGE
Rico Washington*      3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 1 2 Pr
Jarrett Hoffpauir     2b 26 .259 .326 .363 119 405 40 105 22 1 6 43 38 41 4 4 Av

POOR
Aaron Miles#        2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 2 1 Av
Brian Barden         ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 3 3 Fr
Adam Kennedy*        2b 33 .259 .313 .334 93 290 31 75 14 1 2 27 21 39 7 3 Av
Brendan Ryan         ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 12 3 Av
Cesar Izturis#        ss 29 .250 .304 .308 98 308 31 77 11 2 1 24 21 20 9 4 Av

————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

VERY GOOD
Troy Glaus           3b 32 .258 .360 .451 132 466 65 120 25 1 21 75 72 98 1 1 Av

AVERAGE
Brett Wallace         3b 22 .275 .333 .424 126 502 71 138 27 0 16 69 29 84 2 1 Fr
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Allen Craig         3b 24 .267 .315 .443 134 535 68 143 28 0 22 81 33 80 4 2 Fr
David Freese         3b 26 .265 .321 .428 137 528 73 140 28 2 18 75 39 99 5 2 Av
D’Angelo Jimenez#      2b 31 .257 .342 .392 87 237 29 61 12 1 6 29 30 28 3 1 Av

FAIR
Felipe Lopez#        2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 20 9 Av
Rico Washington*      3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 1 2 Fr

POOR
Jarrett Hoffpauir     2b 26 .259 .326 .363 119 405 40 105 22 1 6 43 38 41 4 4 Av
Aaron Miles#        2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 2 1 Av
Brian Barden         ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 3 3 Av
Brendan Ryan         ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 12 3 Av
Tyler Greene         ss 25 .230 .275 .361 111 421 54 97 18 2 11 48 21 97 15 4 Av
Cesar Izturis#        ss 29 .250 .304 .308 98 308 31 77 11 2 1 24 21 20 9 4 Av

————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

AVERAGE
D’Angelo Jimenez#      2b 31 .257 .342 .392 87 237 29 61 12 1 6 29 30 28 3 1 Fr
Felipe Lopez#        2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 20 9 Pr
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Jarrett Hoffpauir     2b 26 .259 .326 .363 119 405 40 105 22 1 6 43 38 41 4 4 Fr

FAIR
Aaron Miles#        2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 2 1 Pr
Brian Barden         ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 3 3 Fr
Brendan Ryan         ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 12 3 Av

POOR
Tyler Greene         ss 25 .230 .275 .361 111 421 54 97 18 2 11 48 21 97 15 4 Av
Cesar Izturis#        ss 29 .250 .304 .308 98 308 31 77 11 2 1 24 21 20 9 4 Av

——————————————————————————————————————————————————
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
——————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS LF RF

EXCELLENT
Ryan Ludwick         rf 30 .274 .347 .522 137 456 70 125 31 2 26 85 46 123 3 3 Av Av

AVERAGE
Chris Duncan*        lf 28 .262 .348 .453 113 344 48 90 16 1 16 55 45 94 2 1 Fr Fr
Josh Phelps         1b 31 .271 .338 .453 115 362 41 98 19 1 15 55 31 81 2 1 Fr Fr
——————————————————————————————————————————————————
Rick Ankiel*        cf 29 .260 .318 .496 128 462 68 120 21 2 28 85 37 106 3 2 Av Av
Allen Craig         3b 24 .267 .315 .443 134 535 68 143 28 0 22 81 33 80 4 2 Av  

FAIR
Skip Schumaker*      cf 29 .292 .344 .388 131 428 58 125 19 2 6 48 33 49 6 2 Vg Av
Felipe Lopez#        2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 20 9 Av Av
Brian Barton         rf 27 .262 .343 .382 104 325 39 85 14 2 7 38 29 75 13 6 Vg Vg
Joe Mather           rf 26 .243 .308 .425 125 428 53 104 22 1 18 63 34 79 7 1     Vg

POOR
Rico Washington*      3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 1 2 Fr  
Steve Hill           1b 24 .263 .291 .446 98 395 42 104 19 1 17 60 15 80 0 0 Fr  
Juan Encarnacion       rf 33 .266 .309 .403 80 293 36 78 14 1 8 37 17 45 2 2 Av Av
Nick Stavinoha       rf 27 .276 .307 .382 119 421 43 116 16 1 9 49 18 62 3 1 Av Fr
Aaron Miles#        2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 2 1     Av
Jon Jay*            cf 24 .265 .315 .375 105 419 48 111 17 1 9 48 27 55 9 7 Vg Vg
Adam Kennedy*        2b 33 .259 .313 .334 93 290 31 75 14 1 2 27 21 39 7 3     Av
Brendan Ryan         ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 12 3 Av Av
Daryl Jones*        lf 22 .235 .299 .351 124 447 56 105 15 2 11 51 34 85 19 11 Vg Vg  
Cody Haerther*        lf 25 .243 .300 .333 93 288 26 70 17 0 3 28 22 53 1 2 Fr Fr
Shane Robinson       lf 24 .257 .292 .346 89 338 36 87 13 1 5 34 16 43 13 8 Vg Vg

————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS RNG

VERY GOOD
Rick Ankiel*        cf 29 .260 .318 .496 128 462 68 120 21 2 28 85 37 106 3 2 Fr

AVERAGE
Skip Schumaker*      cf 29 .292 .344 .388 131 428 58 125 19 2 6 48 33 49 6 2 Fr
————————————————————————————————————————————————
Brian Barton         rf 27 .262 .343 .382 104 325 39 85 14 2 7 38 29 75 13 6 Pr
Joe Mather           rf 26 .243 .308 .425 125 428 53 104 22 1 18 63 34 79 7 1 Fr
Colby Rasmus*        cf 22 .237 .314 .401 114 439 60 104 21 0 17 61 45 85 15 3 Vg

FAIR
Jon Jay*            cf 24 .265 .315 .375 105 419 48 111 17 1 9 48 27 55 9 7 Vg

POOR
Brendan Ryan         ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 12 3 Fr
Daryl Jones*        lf 22 .235 .299 .351 124 447 56 105 15 2 11 51 34 85 19 11 Av
Shane Robinson       lf 24 .257 .292 .346 89 338 36 87 13 1 5 34 16 43 13 8 Av

* - Hits Left
# - Switch-Hitter

—————————————————————————————————————————-
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K

TOP THIRD
Chris Carpenter       34   3.48   4   3 11 11   62.0   59   24   6   15   48
Adam Wainwright       27   3.71 11   8 26 26   165.0 167   68 12   49 110

MIDDLE THIRD
Todd Wellemeyer       30   4.31   8   9 24 24   144.0 142   69 18   61 105
Kyle Lohse           30   4.37   9 10 33 29   177.0 192   86 18   48 113
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Braden Looper         34   4.53 10 12 28 28   167.0 182   84 22   43   90
Jesse Todd           23   4.75   5   6 24 18   110.0 117   58 15   38   58

BOTTOM THIRD
Jaime Garcia*        22   4.89   7   9 26 20   116.0 121   63 14   56   70
P.J. Walters         24   4.90   8 10 31 28   158.0 170   86 20   64 102
Mitchell Boggs         25   5.31   6 10 26 25   144.0 163   85 17   65   74
Tyler Herron         22   5.36   6   9 28 23   131.0 152   78 20   44   60
Blake Hawksworth       26   5.40   6   9 23 22   125.0 145   75 16   48   72
Joel Pineiro         30   5.45   4   6 19 16   99.0 118   60 14   30   51
Clayton Mortensen       24   5.61   4   8 21 20   101.0 117   63 15   49   52
Mike Parisi           26   5.90   5 11 25 21   122.0 150   80 16   56   62
Adam Ottavino         23   5.93   5 10 27 27   129.0 151   85 21   66   67
Mark Mulder*          31   7.16   2   5 11 10   49.0   65   39 10   21   22

—————————————————————————————————————————-
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K

TOP THIRD
Russ Springer         40   2.42   4   1 67   0   52.0   41   14   3   17   51

MIDDLE THIRD
Kyle McClellan         25   3.75   5   4 59   0   72.0   72   30   6   21   51
Jason Motte           27   3.88   4   3 58   0   65.0   63   28   6   23   60
Jason Isringhausen     36   3.91   4   3 52   0   53.0   48   23   5   26   45
—————————————————————————————————————————-
Josh Kinney           30   3.98   2   2 42   0   52.0   49   23   5   23   45
Ryan Franklin         36   4.09   5   5 69   0   77.0   81   35   9   24   47
Ron Villone*          39   4.15   1   1 59   0   52.0   48   24   4   26   43

BOTTOM THIRD
Chris Perez           23   4.35   3   3 63   0   60.0   53   29   7   38   62
Randy Flores*        33   4.68   1   1 65   0   50.0   56   26   4   22   40
Mark Worrell         26   4.77   4   4 58   0   66.0   67   35   9   33   54
Ron Flores*          29   4.79   4   6 56   0   62.0   65   33   6   34   42
Brad Thompson         27   4.79   3   3 28   6   62.0   72   33   7   15   29
Tyler Johnson*        28   4.86   1   2 49   0   37.0   37   20   5   19   30
Kelvin Jimenez         28   5.05   3   4 55   0   73.0   82   41   7   26   40
John Wasdin           36   5.31   3   6 26   8   78.0   90   46 14   21   51
Matthew Scherer       26   5.40   3   5 53   0   70.0   79   42 12   25   44
Cliff Politte         35   7.31   0   2 14   0   16.0   20   13   4   7   10

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Rick Ankiel
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%)  .293 .359 .588 139 502 90 147 25 3 39 113 49 97 4 2 144  
Mean         .260 .318 .496 128 462 68 120 21 2 28 85 37 106 3 2 111
Pessimistic (15%) .233 .290 .423 108 390 43 91 15 1 19 60 29 95 2 1   85

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Roy Tucker, Willie Kirkland, Roger Repoz

Player Spotlight - Ryan Ludwick
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Optimistic (15%)  .304 .384 .590 153 510 92 155 38 3 34 108 60 120 4 4 152
Mean         .274 .347 .522 137 456 70 125 31 2 26 85 46 123 3 3 125
Pessimistic (15%) .244 .310 .428 117 390 42 95 22 1 16 57 33 119 2 3   92

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jesse Barfield, Larry Parrish

Player Spotlight - Kyle Lohse
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  3.46 13   8 36 31 203 198   78 15   44 138   124
Mean           4.37   9 10 33 29 177 192   86 18   48 113   98
Pessimistic (15%)  5.37   6 10 27 24 139 167   83 17   47   77   80

Top Near-Age Comps: Scott Erickson, John Burkett

Player Spotlight - Adam Wainwright
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Optimistic (15%)  2.89 15   6 29 29 187 172   60   9   48 134   148
Mean           3.71 11   8 26 26 165 167   68 12   49 110   115
Pessimistic (15%)  4.67   7   9 22 22 129 143   67 13   50   85   91

Top Near-Age Comps:  Dock Ellis, Jeff Weaver

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. 

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

 

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 26, 2008 at 06:13 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Greg K Posted: October 26, 2008 at 06:52 PM (#2995621)
Another Roger Repoz sighting!
   2. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 26, 2008 at 08:49 PM (#2995660)
So Molina's offensive breakout is more of a mirage then anything else?
   3. Guts Posted: October 26, 2008 at 08:55 PM (#2995662)
It should be Kyle McClellan, not Zach.

The lineup looks ok, but Mo really needs to fix that bullpen.
   4. EnderCN Posted: October 26, 2008 at 08:55 PM (#2995663)
Molina's breakout was just a flukey BABIP most likely, though his K rate did go down even more so maybe part of the gains in AVG are for real.
   5. Guts Posted: October 26, 2008 at 08:56 PM (#2995664)
Also, you can probably take Juan Encarnacion off the list.
   6. Good cripple hitter Posted: October 26, 2008 at 09:06 PM (#2995668)
Adam Wainwright Top Near-Age Comps: Dock Ellis, Jeff Weaver


It's same to assume that the DEA's been informed, right?
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 26, 2008 at 09:30 PM (#2995677)
McClellan's been fixed. The projection was accurate though - no way Zach McClellan is ever that useful.
   8. greenback calls it soccer Posted: October 26, 2008 at 09:45 PM (#2995683)
A Daryl Jones projection might be worthwhile. Mitch Boggs probably should be in there as well, although we can guess what it will look like.

Thanks for everything, except maybe suspending kevin right before the Red Sox lost.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 26, 2008 at 09:52 PM (#2995685)
I did do Boggs but didn't add him to St. Louis, so I'm sticking him in. I'll do Daryl Jones on the next sweep.
   10. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 26, 2008 at 09:52 PM (#2995686)
How is Pujols merely "Excellent"? There should be a higher category for him. Does his optimistic projection break 200 OPS+?
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 26, 2008 at 09:54 PM (#2995690)
Does his optimistic projection break 200 OPS+?

Nope, just a pathetic 194!
   12. greenback calls it soccer Posted: October 26, 2008 at 11:02 PM (#2995717)
I did do Boggs but didn't add him to St. Louis, so I'm sticking him in.

LOL, another minor league starter who projects as well as PiƱeiro. Of course these are the same people that gave us "Braden Looper, Average-ish Starter", so who knows?
   13. steagles Posted: October 27, 2008 at 12:09 AM (#2995755)
what are some thoughts on blake hawksworth? i've got a feeling that he could break out in a huge way in 2009. he has decent enough K and BB rates, but he got beat like a red headed stepchild on balls in play. he's got strong groundball tendencies according to milb.com, but he's less than 50% according to firstinning.


i'm encouraged by the zips projection, but i'm wondering if there's anything more that can be said about him.
   14. Cabbage Posted: October 27, 2008 at 02:32 AM (#2996100)
They might be good, but the Cards also seem to have a greater than usual chance to fall off a cliff. Ankiel, Ludwick, Wainwright, Loshe, and (obviously) Carpenter have an entirely realistic chance of sucking. Of course, it is unlikely that they will suck collectively. My point is just that this Cardinals team is more likely than your average team to go 2008-Detroit-Tigers.
   15. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 27, 2008 at 05:12 AM (#2996321)
Charlie Haeger is on there, he plays for San Diego, I believe.
   16. TOLAXOR Posted: October 27, 2008 at 12:33 PM (#2996397)
I'M NOT SURE ANYONE (SAVE THE MOST ABSURDLY OPTIMISTIC CARDINAL FAN) REALLY HAD HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR STL UNTIL THEY WERE STILL COMPETITIVE IN JUNE...
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 27, 2008 at 03:56 PM (#2996565)
Yeah, I have no idea how Haeger got on there. He's never been a Cardinal or in the organization as far as I can tell - my best guess is I added him by accident when I assigned the next player alphabetically, Haerther.

For the guys over on Viva El Birdos (I know I've posted there before but for some reason, SBNation won't let me post there until 2 days has passed), don't forget that they're ranked by offense. Jimenez isn't really all that impressive a player due to injuries and defense. That 347/392 isn't all that suprising as it's an OPS+ of 93 (his career in the majors of about 2500 PA is an OPS+ of 94)
   18. FBI Posted: October 27, 2008 at 04:20 PM (#2996587)
Are the following statements true about the Cardinals
a) about an 83 win team
b) 12-15th biggest market
c) cash-starved
d) poor group of prospects below Rasmus
e) big holes at ss,2b,sp,rp

If so wouldn't it be wise to consider trading Pujols
Imagine the package you could get for him?
   19. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 27, 2008 at 04:24 PM (#2996597)
Teams still need to sell tickets. Dumping Pujols would likely damage ticket sales greatly.
   20. CraigK Posted: October 27, 2008 at 04:26 PM (#2996602)

Teams still need to sell tickets. Dumping Pujols would likely damage ticket sales greatly.


For trading the reigning NL MVP and easily the best player in the league?

The Cardinals wouldn't fill an AA stadium if that happened.
   21. greenback calls it soccer Posted: October 27, 2008 at 04:38 PM (#2996616)
d) poor group of prospects below Rasmus

No. It isn't 2005.
e) big holes at ss,2b,sp,rp


Look at the list above for the SP's. One guy who's very good (but a large health risk), another who's good, and two more who look to be average or so. That's a decent rotation, maybe a little better. The bullpen could use Springer again and they need a lefty better than one of the Flores brothers, but they do have a couple of guys to fill the holes. The AAA rotation will be composed entirely of prospects, and while admittedly only Todd looks like he has much chance of being particularly good, there is some depth for the various pitching needs.
   22. cardsfanboy Posted: October 27, 2008 at 04:48 PM (#2996625)
16. TOLAXOR Posted: October 27, 2008 at 08:33 AM (#2996397)

I'M NOT SURE ANYONE (SAVE THE MOST ABSURDLY OPTIMISTIC CARDINAL FAN) REALLY HAD HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR STL UNTIL THEY WERE STILL COMPETITIVE IN JUNE...


or maybe the ones that scouted the players with a combination of their eyes and stats.

I love the zips work, but I'll take the over on Molina easily. I'll even take the over on Aaron Miles(if TLR is managing him) but not so much that I think the prediction is too off base. The rest seem to be pretty close at first glance (minus the rookies as I think the Anderson projection and even the Craig seem a tad more optimistic than the Cardinals think, if we could get other teams to see these guys like this, they could make good trade bait)
   23. cardsfanboy Posted: October 27, 2008 at 04:59 PM (#2996641)
Are the following statements true about the Cardinals
a) about an 83 win team
b) 12-15th biggest market
c) cash-starved
d) poor group of prospects below Rasmus
e) big holes at ss,2b,sp,rp

If so wouldn't it be wise to consider trading Pujols
Imagine the package you could get for him?


a. true, with potential to be better due to having the best manager in baseball. A legitimate Wild card contender, or a division winner if injuries happen to the Cubs or a breakout year from the team.
b. I thought their market size was even smaller than that, close to 20th than 12th.
c. nope, not in the least.
d. not really, they may not have elite prospects, but as this shows they have a lot of guys who project to be average players next season. A team consisting of all average players is 81 wins(roughly) add Pujols and that makes it an 88 win team, add Wainwright and you pass 90 wins. (of course not everyone of their players is average but the point is they have enough talent to field an average team and Pujols) add in that the ownership group has said they plan on spending roughly 30 mil this offseason(they have more to spend in their budget but the rest is going to arbitration raises)
e. Big holes? not really the difference between a replacement and an average shortstop and second base is fillable, sp has Wainwright, Lohse, and a cast of other characters by the time the season rolls around they should have 6 starting pitchers for five jobs, their bullpen woes is always easily fixable. Motte has a good chance of beating those projections. Kinney is back next season, they are still short a legitimate lefty specialist, but beyond that they have enough talent to fill out the pen and make it a top ten bullpen.
   24. Portia Stanke Posted: October 27, 2008 at 09:03 PM (#2996896)
The Cards have two Grade-A prospects in Rasmus and Wallace and a ton of serviceable arms to slot into the rotation. Admittedly most of them grade out as 3/4 starters, but STL has been one of the most successful teams in the game for a decade thanks to the Garrett Stephensons of the world. The pen will be much improved next year thanks to full seasons of Perez and Motte & the absence of Villone and Isringhausen, not to mention the probability that the pen won't cough up a dozen leads thanks to unclutch performances.

SS is a huge hole and will likely remain one given the lack of reasonable FA options. Kennedy/Miles/Lopez can fake their way through 2B; Kennedy remains a great defensive player, and the other two have complementary offensive abilities.

Next year's playoff hopes probably hinge on Carpenter being healthy, but even without him the Cards could easily squeeze into the playoffs if Pujols and Ludwick are healthy. The Cards' recipe for success is much like the Giants' a few years ago: just add Pujols to an otherwise average-ish team and coast in the playoffs. The Cards are fortunate in that they have a collection of valuable supporting players as well as a ton of useful talent in the pipeline in case of injury. There's not a team in baseball that could better handle an injury to a starting OF, middle infielder, or 3B. 1B is another question, though not for lack of depth.

And FWIW, Barton will destroy that projection if he gets more than 200 PAs.
   25. TOLAXOR Posted: October 27, 2008 at 09:13 PM (#2996902)
or maybe the ones that scouted the players with a combination of their eyes and stats.


AS A BAYESIAN, I FAIL TO SEE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO...
   26. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: October 27, 2008 at 09:38 PM (#2996919)
Poor group of prospects behind Rasmus---Remember, Daryl Jones and Brett Wallace are not included in the projections, both of which are pretty solid. If not for Glaus, Wallace would probably be the team's starting 3B in 09.
   27. phredbird Posted: October 27, 2008 at 09:46 PM (#2996926)
does anybody really think they'll approach 30 blown leads again next year? jeez, just take that off the table and you can't help but feel they'll contend.
   28. phredbird Posted: October 27, 2008 at 09:48 PM (#2996927)
not sure about the exact number, but i know it is in that neighborhood.
   29. SuperGrover Posted: October 27, 2008 at 10:17 PM (#2996950)
...with potential to be better due to having the best manager in baseball...


What makes LaRussa statistically better than Cox, Torre or Pinella? What about some of the less experienced guys such as Charlie Manuel (.543 W %), Scioscia (.551 W %), or Gardenhire (.549 W %)?

I'm not saying LaRussa is or is not the best in the game...there's no way of knowing. But stating blankly that he is certainly isn't going to lead credence to your remaining bullet points.
   30. phredbird Posted: October 27, 2008 at 10:31 PM (#2996960)
'best manager in baseball' is cfb's (informed) opinion, if i can speak for him. if manuel, torre, pinella, et. al., are still managing after 25yrs and have tony's win percentage, maybe we can compare. cox would be someone i would say has an argument as being better based on results, but he seems to have lost a step. maybe tony has too by now. next couple of years will probably tell. but geez, if tony doesn't get some props for 2006, then all i can say is you have a pretty high bar.
   31. phredbird Posted: October 27, 2008 at 10:49 PM (#2996977)
oops, torre slipped in there. he's been managing a long time and has done pretty well, i guess.
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 27, 2008 at 11:01 PM (#2996986)
OK, I've removed Wayward Charlie Haeger and added projections for Jones and Wallace. I forgot that Jones had a pulse this season after a horrific 2007, so I didn't do him. As for Wallace, I had been kind of hoping that I wouldn't have to do a projection for him given his less than half a year of professional experience, but you guys caught me.
   33. Kyle S Posted: October 27, 2008 at 11:45 PM (#2997008)
I do not like having players listed more than once on offense.
   34. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 28, 2008 at 12:00 AM (#2997024)
SS is a huge hole and will likely remain one given the lack of reasonable FA options.

I bet you could get a shiny Julio Lugo for free!
   35. cardsfanboy Posted: October 28, 2008 at 12:29 AM (#2997043)
'best manager in baseball' is cfb's (informed) opinion, if i can speak for him. if manuel, torre, pinella, et. al., are still managing after 25yrs and have tony's win percentage, maybe we can compare. cox would be someone i would say has an argument as being better based on results, but he seems to have lost a step. maybe tony has too by now. next couple of years will probably tell. but geez, if tony doesn't get some props for 2006, then all i can say is you have a pretty high bar.

I'll pimp out a future book by Chris Jaffe that supports that opinion, but I'll agree that Cox should be included in the discussion. (not a Torre fan, sorry but his claim to fame is basically doing nothing for a tremendously talented team, it's a great philosophy, but only works when you have the right team)

It's not just win percentage though, I even think that Guillen is a good manager and is on the short list of best managers in baseball. Almost every thing TLR does is something that is defensible and I agree with, there are exceptions, most of them have to do with keeping in a starting pitcher too long or something to that effect.
   36. Baseball Boss Jeff Posted: November 13, 2008 at 12:15 AM (#3007859)
2009? It's the bullpen stupid!

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