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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, January 22, 2009

2009 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers

As usual, the Rangers problems start with the pitching, followed by a generally mediocre, though not terrible, defense that

makes the pitching look even worse than it already is.

It has to hurt quite a lot to see Volquez, Young, and Danks all finding success elsewhere, but the Rangers did get Josh

Hamilton in the exchange and the others have to be considered water under the bridge.  The team has two excellent starting

prospects in Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland that should be in the majors very shortly and one has to hope that Jon Daniels,

even if he pulled off some truly terrible trades, will hang onto those two as if his life depended on it.

The offense won’t be as good as last year, with 3 players having MVP-type seasons, but it will still be solid, which is why

the Rangers won’t be contending for the division, unless something absolutely unforseen happens.  After all, the team has a

115 OPS+ and scored 901 runs and didn’t break 900 and the team didn’t exactly sign Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia in the

offseason.  The Michael Young situation might be a happy distraction for a team when, yet again, they’re losing 14-10 games

instead of winning 10-9 ones.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ ARM

VERY GOOD
Maximiliano Ramirez     c   24 .257 .333 .433 112 413 51 106 19 0 18 62 43 108 2 2 100 Fr

AVERAGE
Jarrod Saltalamacchia#  c   24 .253 .330 .431 111 376 53 95 20 1 15 51 42 111 1 2   97 Fr
Taylor Teagarden       c   25 .229 .314 .426 98 345 48 79 15 1 17 47 40 117 1 1   93 Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

POOR
Kevin Richardson       c   28 .219 .279 .358 81 274 29 60 9 1 9 30 19 84 1 1   68 Fr
Manuel Pina         c   22 .214 .251 .271 93 332 24 71 13 0 2 25 14 43 0 0   37 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Hank Blalock*        3b 28 .272 .335 .454 90 346 48 94 20 2 13 51 32 61 2 0 105 Fr
Chris Davis*        1b 23 .263 .309 .508 145 555 84 146 33 2 33 103 36 158 6 3 108 Fr

FAIR
Frankie Catalanotto*    1b 35 .274 .353 .410 85 266 35 73 20 2 4 29 26 29 1 1 100 Av
Maximiliano Ramirez     c   24 .257 .333 .433 112 413 51 106 19 0 18 62 43 108 2 2 100 Fr
Jarrod Saltalamacchia#  c   24 .253 .330 .431 111 376 53 95 20 1 15 51 42 111 1 2   97 Fr

POOR
Nate Gold           1b 29 .243 .306 .439 113 424 50 103 21 1 20 71 37 103 1 1   93 Av
Kevin Richardson       c   28 .219 .279 .358 81 274 29 60 9 1 9 30 19 84 1 1   68 Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Ian Kinsler         2b 27 .283 .354 .470 127 498 93 141 32 2 19 68 51 75 19 2 115 Fr

POOR
Ryan Roberts         2b 28 .243 .320 .372 115 403 50 98 20 1 10 46 45 91 7 2   82 Av
German Duran         2b 24 .250 .294 .393 120 392 53 98 19 2 11 47 22 69 5 2   80 Av
Joaquin Arias         ss 24 .261 .296 .350 107 429 52 112 15 4 5 37 19 58 20 4   69 Av
Jose Vallejo         2b 22 .229 .270 .294 127 528 51 121 17 1 5 45 27 104 37 4   48 Vg

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
Michael Young         ss 32 .292 .347 .420 151 631 90 184 35 5 12 84 52 101 9 1   98 Av
Hank Blalock*        3b 28 .272 .335 .454 90 346 48 94 20 2 13 51 32 61 2 0 105 Fr
Chris Davis*        1b 23 .263 .309 .508 145 555 84 146 33 2 33 103 36 158 6 3 108 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

POOR
Ryan Roberts         2b 28 .243 .320 .372 115 403 50 98 20 1 10 46 45 91 7 2   82 Fr
German Duran         2b 24 .250 .294 .393 120 392 53 98 19 2 11 47 22 69 5 2   80 Av
Travis Metcalf       3b 26 .219 .270 .355 119 406 49 89 20 1 11 47 28 104 3 3   63 Fr

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Michael Young         ss 32 .292 .347 .420 151 631 90 184 35 5 12 84 52 101 9 1   98 Fr

FAIR
Ryan Roberts         2b 28 .243 .320 .372 115 403 50 98 20 1 10 46 45 91 7 2   82 Fr
German Duran         2b 24 .250 .294 .393 120 392 53 98 19 2 11 47 22 69 5 2   80 Av

POOR
Joaquin Arias         ss 24 .261 .296 .350 107 429 52 112 15 4 5 37 19 58 20 4   69 Av
Elvis Andrus         ss 20 .242 .298 .313 124 505 74 122 20 2 4 54 37 91 42 18   62 Vg

————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+  LF RF

EXCELLENT
Josh Hamilton*        cf 28 .293 .366 .526 132 502 85 147 27 3 28 102 56 106 7 1 131 Av Av

VERY GOOD
Nelson Cruz         rf 28 .282 .354 .531 134 471 78 133 22 1 31 92 50 122 14 6 128 Fr Fr

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Marlon Byrd         cf 31 .279 .352 .430 122 409 62 114 23 3 11 58 39 78 6 3 106 Vg Vg

FAIR
Frankie Catalanotto*    1b 35 .274 .353 .410 85 266 35 73 20 2 4 29 26 29 1 1 100 Fr  

POOR
David Murphy*        rf 27 .263 .319 .419 119 434 57 114 29 3 11 59 36 74 7 2   92 Vg Av
Ryan Roberts         2b 28 .243 .320 .372 115 403 50 98 20 1 10 46 45 91 7 2   82 Av Av
Brandon Boggs#        lf 26 .217 .306 .374 116 382 46 83 21 3 11 44 48 109 9 4   77 Vg Vg
Greg Golson         cf 23 .232 .264 .352 125 522 63 121 20 2 13 56 23 161 27 6   59 Av Av
Nathan Haynes*        cf 29 .237 .282 .298 97 312 36 74 9 2 2 25 18 77 15 6   55 Av Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+ RNG

EXCELLENT
Josh Hamilton*        cf 28 .293 .366 .526 132 502 85 147 27 3 28 102 56 106 7 1 131 Fr

AVERAGE
Marlon Byrd         cf 31 .279 .352 .430 122 409 62 114 23 3 11 58 39 78 6 3 106 Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
David Murphy*        rf 27 .263 .319 .419 119 434 57 114 29 3 11 59 36 74 7 2   92 Fr

POOR
Brandon Boggs#        lf 26 .217 .306 .374 116 382 46 83 21 3 11 44 48 109 9 4   77 Av
Greg Golson         cf 23 .232 .264 .352 125 522 63 121 20 2 13 56 23 161 27 6   59 Av
Julio Borbon*        cf 23 .254 .285 .321 124 548 59 139 22 0 5 39 20 78 48 19   60 Av
Nathan Haynes*        cf 29 .237 .282 .298 97 312 36 74 9 2 2 25 18 77 15 6   55 Av

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

MIDDLE THIRD
Kevin Millwood         34   4.62 11 11 29 29   171.1 192   80 19   53 126   99
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Vicente Padilla       31   5.04 10 11 28 28   155.1 170   87 22   61 113   91
Jason Jennings         30   5.11   3   4 11 11   68.2   74   39   9   33   47   90

BOTTOM THIRD
Derek Holland*        22   5.19   7   5 22 21   104.0 107   60 10   39   60   88
Neftali Feliz         21   5.25   5   6 17 15   82.1   91   48   8   48   59   87
Kason Gabbard*        27   5.33   6   7 22 21   106.1 115   63 15   59   73   85
Scott Feldman         26   5.46   6   9 23 21   130.1 150   79 17   55   73   84
Guillermo Moscoso       25   5.50   3   5 17 13   70.1   78   43 15   20   53   83
Matt Harrison*        23   5.55   7 11 24 24   136.1 162   84 19   52   65   83
Thomas Diamond         26   5.93   4   8 20 20   91.0   99   60 15   60   75   76
Dustin Nippert         28   6.04   5   9 35 16   114.2 136   77 19   52   86   76
Doug Mathis           26   6.15   5   9 22 20   108.1 138   74 17   43   52   74
Luis Mendoza         25   6.20   6 12 30 24   119.0 156   82 15   43   54   74
Elizardo Ramirez       26   6.37   5   9 23 20   117.1 151   83 23   32   59   72
Eric Hurley           23   6.48   4 10 22 22   115.1 131   83 32   49   74   70
Tommy Hunter         22   6.59   7 16 28 28   158.1 206 116 34   40   74   69
Omar Poveda           21   6.75   4   8 20 20   98.2 115   74 25   51   59   68
John Bannister         25   6.75   4   9 26 18   104.0 130   78 19   63   58   67

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+

TOP THIRD
Frankie Francisco       29   3.44   3   2 55   0   55.0   44   21   5   26   65 133

MIDDLE THIRD
Joaquin Benoit         31   4.04   4   3 57   0   69.0   60   31   6   38   72 113
—————————————————————————————————————————————
C.J. Wilson*          28   4.45   2   2 56   0   60.2   56   30   8   31   58 103

BOTTOM THIRD
A.J. Murray*          27   4.98   2   3 23   7   56.0   64   31   5   26   38   92
Brandon McCarthy       25   5.00   2   2 17   5   45.0   47   25   7   17   32   92
Willie Eyre           30   5.06   2   2 27   0   42.2   48   24   5   16   28   92
Josh Rupe           26   5.26   2   2 31   2   63.1   71   37   7   30   35   87
Derrick Turnbow       31   5.36   3   5 52   0   47.0   39   28   4   50   56   85
Warner Madrigal       25   5.61   4   5 54   0   51.1   56   32   9   27   33   81
Jamey Wright         34   5.65   5   7 44   6   73.1   88   46   8   31   46   81
Brian Gordon         30   5.85   4   6 37   7   75.1   89   49 16   22   42   77
Joseph Torres*        26   6.15   1   3 45   0   41.0   40   28   4   46   32   75
Jose Diaz           29   6.41   2   5 35   5   59.0   62   42 11   50   42   71
Kazuo Fukumori         32   6.89   2   5 42   4   64.0   87   49 13   23   30   66
Casey Daigle         28   6.97   3   6 45   5   72.1   92   56 17   35   48   66

* - Throws Left

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Chris Davis
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .263 .309 .508 145 555 84 146 33 2 33 103 36 158 6 3 108

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Ed Kranepool, Justin Thompson, Willie Montanez

ODDIBE

Offense     %
Top Quintile   11
2nd Quintile   21
Mid Quintile   18
4th Quintile   25
Low Quintile   25

OPS+        %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
160+        2     .400+  0     10+    0     200+  0
140+        8     .375+  0     5+    6     150+  38
130+        19     .350+  4
120+        29     .325+  24     2B     %
110+        49     .300+  63     45+    4
100+        66               30+    69
90+        82
80+        92
60+        97

BA         %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
.350+      0     .550+  18     50+    5     70+    0
.325+      1     .500+  49     40+    20     50+    0
.300+      6     .450+  87     30+    61     30+    0
.275+      30     .400+  100   20+    96     10+    12
.250+      71     .350+  100   10+    100


(Based on Projected PA)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Ian Kinsler
            AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Projection     .283 .354 .470 127 498 93 141 32 2 19 68 51 75 19 2 115

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps:  Travis Jackson, Ryne Sandberg, Odell Hale

ODDIBE

Offense     %
Top Quintile   67
2nd Quintile   17
Mid Quintile   10
4th Quintile   5
Low Quintile   1

OPS+        %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
160+        1     .400+  4     10+    0     200+  0
140+        8     .375+  21     5+    10     150+  25
130+        22     .350+  59
120+        38     .325+  90     2B     %
110+        64     .300+  99     45+    3
100+        83               30+    65
90+        94
80+        99
60+        100

BA         %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
.350+      0     .550+  5     50+    0     70+    0
.325+      5     .500+  24     40+    0     50+    0
.300+      26     .450+  69     30+    6     30+    5
.275+      65     .400+  97     20+    44     10+    98
.250+      93     .350+  100   10+    97

(Based on Projected PA)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Vicente Padilla
              ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       5.04 10 11 28 28 155.1 170   87 22   61 113   91

Top Near-Age Comps: 

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 11
Mid 1/3 47
Bot 1/3 42

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   0     >26   0
>140   1     >35   2
>130   2     >43   8
>120   5     >52   25
>110   11     >60   51
>100   27     >69   77
>90   52
>80   82     HR     %
>70   98     >12   5
          >17   25
K/9   %    >22   58
>155   3     >28   86
>138   10
>121   30
>104   66

(Based on Projected IP)
——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Kevin Millwood
              ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K   ERA+   
Projection       4.62 11 11 29 29 171.1 192   88 19   53 126   99

Top Near-Age Comps:  Rick Rhoden, John Burkett, Mike Garcia

ODDIBE

ERA   %
Top 1/3 26
Mid 1/3 54
Bot 1/3 20

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   2     >29   3
>140   3     >38   11
>130   7     >48   36
>120   13     >57   66
>110   26     >67   88
>100   49     >76   95
>90   76
>80   94     HR     %
>70   99     >13   22
          >19   60
K/9   %    >25   87
>171   3     >30   95
>152   10
>133   32
>114   70

(Based on Projected IP)
——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ >140

Hamilton   34
Cruz       30
Davis       8

OBP >.400

Hamilton   10
Byrd       4
Cruz       3

SLG >.550

Cruz       32
Hamilton   30
Davis     19

BA >.325

Hamilton   11
Young       7
Kinsler     5

2B >45

Young       9
Davis       4
Kinsler     3

3B >10

Arias       3
Hamilton     1
Byrd       1

HR >30

Davis     61
Cruz       51
Hamilton   37

SB >50

Borbon     42
Andrus     17
Vallejo     5

ERA+ >140

Francisco   42
Benoit     20
Wilson     17

K/9 >9

Francisco   82
Benoit     54
Wilson     31

BB/9 <1.5

Hunter 8
The Lizard 7
Gordon 7

HR/9 <0.7

Murray 46
Francisco 44
Benoit 40

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions


ZiPS 2009 Archive


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Indians

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Braves

Blue Jays

A’s

Astros

Angels

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 22, 2009 at 01:53 AM | 71 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:33 AM (#3057615)
Wow, that's a nice looking projection from Nelson Cruz. I knew his name, but couldn't remember him doing anything in the majors to warrant a 128 OPS+ prediction, but in looking over his minor league stats, the last place he was even slightly less than a great hitter was 2003 in single A.

Boy does that starting rotation look ugly behind Millwood. The Jays, even after losing Burnett to FA, McGowan and Marcum to the DL, can still probably beat those projections and that's discounting their only two reliable startes [Doc and Litsch].

Oh, and Dan, there is a small typo up top:
After all, the team has a 115 OPS+ and scored 901 runs and didn't break 900
, probably should read "didn't break 500."
   2. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:33 AM (#3057616)
I'll take two servings of that Nelson Cruz Kool-Aid, thank you very much! What do scouts say about the guy?
   3. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:34 AM (#3057618)
No edit here? Oh well, please ignore sloppy, run-on sentences...
   4. thinkmaui Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:48 AM (#3057625)
I get a Morgan Ensberg type vibe regarding Nelson Cruz, the hitter. It will be interesting to see how he fares, and how long he lasts.
   5. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:50 AM (#3057627)
Is it an editorial decision to not divide players into "Excellent" and "Very Good", etc., or just an oversight here?
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:53 AM (#3057629)
Not that it matters for your projections, but Hurley is out for the year.

Kinda surprised Botts hasn't gotten more of a shot? Not that he's great, but he seems like he could be a serviceable 4th OF bat off the bench for someone or maybe even a starter for an offense-starved team.

Very interested to see what Cruz can do thisy ear.
   7. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:20 AM (#3057638)
It looks like a light bulb went on for Cruz last year. Before last year, he was very much a "swing hard and hope it goes far" kind of player. If Dan's right and he shortened/quickened his swing, it looks like he might have done so without sacrificing much (if any) power - and that bodes well although I think he's more likely to hit 40 doubles and 20 HRs than what the ZiPS projection shows. He's not likely to have a long career (he's already 28), but the Rangers could get two or three useful years out of him.

Botts, unlike Cruz, hasn't made the adjustments he needs to make to his swing, and he still fails to make contact consistently enough to be useful as a result. Plus he's really not an OF; he's a 1B/DH.

-- MWE
   8. MM1f Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:43 AM (#3057653)
Why is Stephen Marek on here?
   9. PS is probably going to lose his mind Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:07 AM (#3057664)
Ooh, a Casey Daigle sighting!
   10. 8ball Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:10 AM (#3057667)
Does this work out to about an 80 win team?
   11. 8ball Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:14 AM (#3057671)
Also, Botts is in Japan now.
   12. *BaseClogger* Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:20 AM (#3057674)
Dan,

You have two different Millwood ERA projections...
   13. cal Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:35 AM (#3057679)
Quick question: Can I assume that Ramirez's defense is much better than Saltalamacchia's since their projections are almost identical but one is listed as Very Good and one as Average?
   14. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:43 AM (#3057681)
No. It just means they are both right at the Average/Very Good line. Defense is not accounted.
   15. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: January 22, 2009 at 05:58 AM (#3057697)
Ugh, you seriously get these types of emails? Or are you pulling our collective legs?
   16. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 22, 2009 at 06:05 AM (#3057705)
roberts signed with arizona.
the light bulb for cruz (imo) went off in '06 (zone control + shortening swing), though he certainly turned it up last year... scouts have always liked his raw power and athleticism for his size (generally has had positive reviews on d as well, though it hasn't shown up in the #s). incidentally, anyone could have had this guy - he slid through waivers last year (out of options).
   17. ugen64 Posted: January 22, 2009 at 06:08 AM (#3057708)
Wow, I honestly didn't realize the Rangers had this many decent to good hitters. Makes you wonder - say they trade one of their catchers to Boston for one of their many young pitchers - or, alternatively, to the Marlins for someone like Dan Uggla, who then could be traded for a pitcher (?). Sign one or two more pitchers from the free agent market and this doesn't look like a terrible team.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: January 22, 2009 at 06:17 AM (#3057715)
wot do u have gainst David Murphy he run over you're fat stupid dog 600 PA of 113 OPS+ if he was Yankee you'd say he's an all star go root for the Roxies
   19. Coach Mr. Potato Head Posted: January 22, 2009 at 06:53 AM (#3057726)
Ooh, a Casey Daigle sighting!


I wonder what ZiPS has to say about his wife.
   20. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 22, 2009 at 06:58 AM (#3057728)
If Hurley keeps having sugary, his teeth will be as rotten as his labrum.
   21. frenchredsox Posted: January 22, 2009 at 07:08 AM (#3057729)
Oh, the Rangers signed Vizquel officially. Haven't run the projection yet, but I don't expect it's within a mile of good.


Um dont you mean the Pirates ??

Anyways,what of the lost "DHer" of last year Jason Botts he is still a Ranger & will get more ABs than Nate Gold *wink wink*
   22. frenchredsox Posted: January 22, 2009 at 07:55 AM (#3057747)
Excuse me,Dan how come the Turnbow "projection" has so suddenly improved ?



When he signed was a 6.26 ERA/73 ERA+ guy & above is now a 5.36 ERA/85 ERA+........just a question of curiousity.Is it because you see him as suited to Arlington more than Milwaukee or is it simply a revised opinion ?
   23. frenchredsox Posted: January 22, 2009 at 09:04 AM (#3057752)
Excuse me,Dan how come the Turnbow "projection" has so suddenly improved ?



When he signed was a 6.26 ERA/73 ERA+ guy & above is now a 5.36 ERA/85 ERA+........just a question of curiousity.Is it because you see him as suited to Arlington more than Milwaukee or is it simply a revised opinion ?
   24. Posada Posse Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:35 PM (#3057804)
So Elvis Andrus and his projected 62 OPS+ will be the starting shortstop? They're probably better off just leaving Young at shortstop for one more season and maybe try to trade him while he still has some value.
   25. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 22, 2009 at 02:42 PM (#3057808)
I agree that Day should go root for the A's even if he is a fat boy!

That Taylor Teagarden projection is worse than I thought it would be. I think I may have wasted a pick in my DMB draft.

Also, that pitching is brutal. The AL West is going to be weak this year. I wouldn't be surprised if the M's are much closer to the top than people think right now.
   26. FBI Regional Bureau Chief GORDON COLE!!! Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:01 PM (#3057814)
After all, the team has a 115 OPS+ and scored 901 runs and didn't break 900 and the team didn't exactly sign Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia in the offseason.

English, please.
   27. FBI Regional Bureau Chief GORDON COLE!!! Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:05 PM (#3057816)
"y dont u pay attention to team eric hurley had sugary today and will miss the seasson"

I see the guy's point--I "had sugary" just yesterday, and today, I feel like crap. Whole feckin' pint of Ben & Jerry's, I had...
   28. FBI Regional Bureau Chief GORDON COLE!!! Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:06 PM (#3057820)
I see I owe #26 a Coke. Or a pint of ice cream.
   29. Posada Posse Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:17 PM (#3057826)
"y dont u pay attention to team eric hurley had sugary today and will miss the seasson"


What, he'll miss the season with cavities?

Jeez, English is my second language; it must be this guy's sixth language or something.
   30. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:48 PM (#3057849)
Maybe he really mean Eric Hurley had scurvy and will miss the seas, son.
   31. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: January 22, 2009 at 03:49 PM (#3057850)
Oh, the irony.
   32. JPWF13 Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:01 PM (#3057861)
I had to look up Nelson Cruz, .342/.429/.695 at AAA followed by .330/.421/.609 in the majors?
43 homes 125 ribbies overall???

I couldn't help but notice that his #1 BBREF comp was Adam Piatt...
he of the utterly mesmerizing (from an mle POV), 1999 of .345-39-135 in AA...
   33. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 22, 2009 at 04:54 PM (#3057918)
1999 Midland: 273/360/536

Ahh. Those were heady times in A's fandom.
   34. RTSquared is not on the Rangers' DL...yet... Posted: January 22, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3057926)
I know it's meaningless, but...NO ONE is projected to hit .300 for the Rangers this year??? Or get on base 37% of the time??? Or draw 60 walks???

The fanboy in me is outraged by the incompetence of Dan's system. The realist in me...man, this year is going to suck for the Rangers unless several players seriously outperform their projections...

Dan - just to get our hopes up so they can be dashed again, can you run a quickie projection on Sheets at RBiA?
   35. RTSquared is not on the Rangers' DL...yet... Posted: January 22, 2009 at 05:33 PM (#3057958)
Thanks Dan - much appreciated.

I "knew" that regarding .300 hitters, though my brain hadn't gotten around to parsing it as of yet. It's like early in the NBA season, when Hollinger was projecting that one of SA, PHX, and DAL would not make the playoffs this season. Their individual odds were high enough, but take them as a parlay and one of them was more than 50% likely to fail.

Would someone PLEASE point Daniels/Ryan/Hicks to that Sheets projection? Verducci reports that he's asking 2/18 from the Mets...that's gotta be doable, right? RIGHT???
   36. Danny Posted: January 22, 2009 at 05:40 PM (#3057974)
1999 Midland: 273/360/536

Ahh. Those were heady times in A's fandom.


That 1999 Midland squad was a caricature of the "beer league softball" image. They led the league in runs scored by 100 and in runs allowed by 160. The worst position player on the team? Eric Byrnes.

I had also forgotten that Piatt didn't play an OF before making the majors.
   37. DaMick knows what love is. A Boy Loves His Dog. Posted: January 22, 2009 at 11:29 PM (#3058361)
""y dont u pay attention to team eric hurley had sugary today and will miss the seasson""

Diabetic coma?
   38. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 02:43 AM (#3058497)
hay fat boy u suck ur mommas teat rangers roolz for life

Teh Blogpakr in Arlingotn p0wnz yur ass!!!!11!!!111111one
   39. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 23, 2009 at 03:00 AM (#3058502)
That defense looks pretty bad to me unless they put Andrus at SS and Byrd in CF. Although I guess the pitching is worse.
   40. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 03:03 AM (#3058504)
OMFG

Please tell me that's real. Please please please tell me TR Sullivan is taking potshots. If you tell me I will post there. If it's real, I will post.
   41. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 03:04 AM (#3058505)
Dan Simborski has been prominent in the baseball projections business for a long time and Zips is always one of the top performing systems as seen on competitor Baseball Prospectus's website http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564. He's kind of sarcastic but people say he's usually helpful with questions.

I have a question, Dan. How many pounds of bacon should one leave behind before fording a river?
   42. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 03:31 AM (#3058517)
Okay, I said my piece.
   43. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 23, 2009 at 03:38 AM (#3058521)
In Davis's comps, I think Dan meant Jason Thompson the 1B, not Justin Thompson the pitcher.

-- MWE
   44. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 03:45 AM (#3058524)
I wondered about that, Mike. I figured it was Freudian.
   45. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: January 23, 2009 at 03:49 AM (#3058529)
He's kind of sarcastic but people say he's usually helpful with questions.


That sounds about right ;). I thought TR Sullivan was a guy from The New Republic. Shows you how much of a low info voter I've become over the years.
   46. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 23, 2009 at 04:21 AM (#3058546)
a little over the top, jeff?
   47. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 04:48 AM (#3058556)
No, I don't think so. Really. I'm telling you, I grew up reading TR. He was the Rangers beat writer for 13 years. He is the textbook definition of a mediocre sportswriter, a mediocre *beatwriter* at that. And the way he just flippantly dismisses what really is an astonishing accomplishment that Szym doesn't get enough credit for rankled me. Who the hell is TR Sullivan? He is no more able to get a table at a nice restaurant than any other guy with a sawbuck for the maitre'd, yet he's running down ZIPS? On top of all that, he does so pretty damned ignorantly and lazily (it took me three clicks and less than 10 seconds to find the Rays 08 projection), which further makes my point.
   48. Jeff K. Posted: January 23, 2009 at 04:50 AM (#3058557)
I would like it on record that Dan and I are not gay lovers, as that one guy implies.

It was one time, and he took me by surprise.
   49. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 23, 2009 at 06:32 AM (#3058586)
Heh.

I probably shouldn't have said anything! I just thought the comments are funny. Jeff, you would've been awesome at rec.sport.baseball's peak flaming people who just got on the internet with a Web TV. Boy, we were mean to those guys.
   50. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 23, 2009 at 07:03 AM (#3058592)
I say we all go over there and rip 'em a new one.

By the way, Dan, you made my final exam again. Congrats.
   51. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 23, 2009 at 07:49 PM (#3059122)
By the way, Dan, you made my final exam again. Congrats.

Sweet! What's the context this time?
   52. The Ghost of Pete Incaviglia Posted: January 24, 2009 at 05:03 AM (#3059517)
Do you have an innings count on Sheets's projection as well, Dan?
   53. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 24, 2009 at 05:35 AM (#3059533)
It was the same question as last time. But this time, somebody actually picked you as the answer!
   54. Dr. Dave Posted: January 24, 2009 at 05:43 AM (#3059536)
you would've been awesome at rec.sport.baseball's peak flaming people who just got on the internet with a Web TV. Boy, we were mean to those guys.

Heh. Roger Maynard and Gary Blickhan would have cleaned his clock.

(Nice to see you again, as it were, Dan. Keep up the good work.)
   55. caprules Posted: January 24, 2009 at 06:05 AM (#3059545)
Sheets projection with the Brewers was 161 IP.
   56. Jeff K. Posted: January 24, 2009 at 06:28 AM (#3059552)
I'm not sure exactly where that came from, but hell, it's not like I don't believe it. Reading it tonight it seems a little harsh on poor old T.R., but yeah, #### 'im. I did snicker at my own "droll semi-hack eminently forgettable whatshisname and whatshisbeat sportswriter" line.

This wasn't nearly as much fun as the Gotham Baseball one. Those guys were much more irritating, but they were also a little higher above the rim than the Sullivaniacs over there. I think I wasted the entire afternoon on that one. I should just pick a random baseball website every week and take on the whole readership. I could go to Viva El Birdos and talk about how Bob Gibson was a #####, or Halo Heaven and wonder aloud whether Rod Carew could hit .240 today.
   57. jwb Posted: January 28, 2009 at 04:59 AM (#3062058)
Boy does that starting rotation look ugly behind Millwood
and that Millwood projection is kind of rosy. He was that good a few years ago but he was 31 a few years ago and you are so stupid Sikorsky too many plyaers playing worse go root for the O's fat boy.

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