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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, October 16, 2010

2010 Minor League Translations (zMLE)

As usual, there are a number of caveats regarding minor league translations that an inevitable number of people forget and give me a gigantic migraine about.

Translations are not true-talent projections.  They are simply translations of lower-level performance that are subject to the same caveats as all performance statistics are.  They’re subject to issues of small-sample size.  They’re subject to luck, fluke years, career years, injuries, and reflects players not being experience professionally.  If you see anyone post “Betances ready for the majors - translation of 3.82 in 14 starts for Tampa” or “Szymborski says Martin Perez is not a prospect” please insult that person in accordance with whatever internet meme is hot at the time in question.

2010 Minor League Translations (zMLE)

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 16, 2010 at 07:34 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Plank Posted: October 16, 2010 at 11:18 AM (#3665590)
Betances ready for the majors - translation of 3.82 in 14 starts for Tampa
   2. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: October 16, 2010 at 12:23 PM (#3665603)
Thanks, Dan!
I did find an error, though... the Charlotte A and AAA league levels got flipped (NC put in the FSL, FL put in the IL).
   3. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: October 16, 2010 at 01:57 PM (#3665642)
Portland PCL v. EL as well.
   4. Guapo Posted: October 16, 2010 at 02:09 PM (#3665645)
Betances ready for the majors - translation of 3.82 in 14 starts for Tampa


Cigar Guy should hunt you down and blow smoke in your face.
   5. jar75 Posted: October 16, 2010 at 02:58 PM (#3665667)
This is great, Dan. Thank you very much for the spreadsheet.

I assume this means team projections are right around the corner?
   6. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: October 16, 2010 at 06:33 PM (#3665760)
Awesome; thanks again.
Since I like to request stuff - any chance you could toss the big league PFs out there? I figure you've probably already developed them in order to generate these translations...
   7. Boxkutter Posted: October 17, 2010 at 06:32 AM (#3666577)
the ZiPS disk is almost certainly going to be released by DMB this year


You just made me a very happy person, and made my Sim League a lot more fun. I know Small Sample Size is an issue with splits, and that it takes like 10,000 at bats to get a true read on a platoon split... but they make sims so much more fun!
   8. zenbitz Posted: October 17, 2010 at 07:01 AM (#3666579)
I get a "too many cell formats" error when trying to open this in Microsoft Office for Mac 2004.

I am sure this is not really a huge problem for you. I'll take a .csv file.
   9. jar75 Posted: October 17, 2010 at 12:45 PM (#3666605)

You just made me a very happy person, and made my Sim League a lot more fun. I know Small Sample Size is an issue with splits, and that it takes like 10,000 at bats to get a true read on a platoon split... but they make sims so much more fun!

Hmm, I'm not sure why more splits would suddenly appear. I took that as meaning Dan now has an affiliation with DMB and it will allow him to work through his projections more quickly.
   10. VK_Ratliff Posted: October 18, 2010 at 01:24 AM (#3666973)
Will the formula for regressed splits be something like the one discussed here:

Split projection formula and spreadsheet.

(Great news about the affiliation with DMB.)
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 15, 2010 at 06:53 AM (#3711089)
File is gone?
   12. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 08:44 PM (#3723315)
Seems like it.
   13. J. Cross Posted: February 12, 2011 at 05:06 AM (#3748926)
I think that the stat line that baseball-reference has and this sheet has listed as Joel De Los Santos might actually be Miguel Fermin. I'm guessing that this won't keep people up nights.

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