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Monday, March 29, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9.0, Final Edition

- All players are projected to their current or, in the case of unemployed players, their most recent teams.

- To install, create a new empty database in Diamond Mind 9.0 by selecting File—>Create New Empty Database.  Name the new database anything you want it to and then hit File—>Restore and select the ZIP file that you download.

- Players with long enough sample sizes now have their actual platoon splits programmed in.

- Teams have simmable depth charts and lineups for season sims.

- Casey Kelly, Fautino de los Santos, Charlie Blackmon, and Scott Atchison have been added.

Short of any emergency fix (there was one with Randy Johnson last year), this is the last 2010 ZiPS product.

For those interested in more ZiPS, please check out ESPN the Magazine’s baseball preview, with 7 pages of team simulations and commentary by Buster Olney and Tim Kurkjian.  There will also be a few more small things utilizing ZiPS on ESPN Insider before the start of the season (leader probabilities, 40/40 club, Triple Crown odds and so on).

The yearly ZiPS projections and Diamond Mind disk are extremely large undertakings and your donations have enabled these projections to be able to be freely accessed by the general public, both on a yearly basis and the daily updates at FanGraphs.  I am extremely grateful for any and all contributions.  If you would like to make a contribution, please click the button below to make any donation between one penny and one million dollars, numbers towards the latter obviously preferable.  A PayPal account is not required to make a donation.




2010 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind 9.0, Final Build.

Dan Szymborski Posted: March 29, 2010 at 11:04 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. bigboy1234 Posted: March 29, 2010 at 11:42 PM (#3488362)
Thanks Dan.

Is there a final spreadsheet being released too?
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 29, 2010 at 11:44 PM (#3488364)
No, the spreadsheet's finalized - there are just some changes on the disk that needed to be done (like depth charts that don't affect the projection sheet). Projections are already up at FanGraphs, simulations run for ESPN, so I don't really want to do any changes at this point (other than new projections as players are traded - things I have time to do again!).
   3. Patriot87 Posted: March 30, 2010 at 12:16 AM (#3488386)
Dan, which should leagues use for eras? Tweaked? Regular? you included both.
   4. Chris Needham Posted: March 30, 2010 at 12:39 AM (#3488395)
@#$#. I can't find my Version 9 CD.

How am I going to waste away the hours now?
   5. Accent Shallow Posted: March 30, 2010 at 01:13 AM (#3488421)
Dan,

If you were projecting RBIs for Triple Crown odds, you'd take into account the on-base and baserunning abilities of that player's teammates, correct?
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 30, 2010 at 01:18 AM (#3488423)
If you were projecting RBIs for Triple Crown odds, you'd take into account the on-base and baserunning abilities of that player's teammates, correct?

Now that I've done sims, I have pretty good estimates for the likely variance of runners on base.

Dan, which should leagues use for eras? Tweaked? Regular? you included both.

Tweaked is simply with slightly more offense - the ERA-translator in DMB doesn't always work to perfection and frequently requires some experimentation. What you use is up to you (I'd use Tweaked).
   7. Rays&Sox; Posted: March 31, 2010 at 08:38 PM (#3489894)
It's probably here somewhere and I missed it, but could we get the average OPS+ for each position? Thanks.
   8. VK_Ratliff Posted: March 31, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3489925)
Dan,

I recall last year some folks reporting what seemed to be exceptionally high numbers of passed balls when playing the ZiPS disk on DMB. Just doing a quick eyeball of passed-ball ratings for catchers on the 2010 ZiPS disk, I notice some ratings that, superficially anyway, look to be rather high (i.e, "high" as in "worse"). I have nothing much really to compare these ratings to other than the 2009 DMB season disk, and even accounting for sample-size differences and what have you, some passed-ball ratings on the ZiPS disk still seem to jump out. For instance, there is a pretty healthy number of folks on the ZiPS disk with PB ratings of 10 or above, in what seems like a percentage of guys significantly greater than what is on the standard 2009 season disk (and, in any event, one would think the season disk, with its smaller sample size, would produce more outliers on the high end than would the ZiPS disk).

Some more specific examples in this regard: Francisco Cervelli has a PB rating of 15 on the ZiPS disk, while he has a PB rating of 1 on the DMB 2009 season disk; Rob Johnson has a PB rating of 10 on the ZiPS disk, while it's 5 on DMB 2009; John Baker = 5 on ZiPS, 2 on DMB 2009; etc. Is there something in the way that ZiPS computes PB ratings that would tend generally to rate catchers worse in that area than DMB does with its single-season disks?

Thanks.
   9. Patriot87 Posted: April 01, 2010 at 07:11 PM (#3490605)
Dan,

Thanks for the reply. I'll go with tweaked. Another issue though, on June 3rd, the Astros are scheduled to play both the Cubs and the Nationals. That's a Thursday. On Sunday, there's no Cubs/Astros game scheduled. Checking Houston's schedule, they do indeed play the Nats on 6/3, and the Cubs for the weekend series. I'm assuming just delete the 6/3 Astros/Cubs game and put it on 6/6? JUst figured I'd bring it to your attention and others using the disc for their leagues as well.
   10. Patriot87 Posted: April 01, 2010 at 08:11 PM (#3490668)
Also, Jason Marquis' batting projection looks a lot like his pitching projection (BB/SO match on both sides) and I doubt Marquis should be having that many at bats. That looks to be an error?
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 01, 2010 at 08:16 PM (#3490674)
There's a new file uploaded - Jason Marquis and the extra game fix.
   12. jfish26101 Posted: April 02, 2010 at 03:42 PM (#3491122)
Dan, can you just tell me the fix to Marquis? I'd rather make small changes by hand than mess around with the whole database. I'm always worried I'm going to lose what work I've already finished. Thanks.

Edit: I fixed the schedule already, just need to know what to change with Marquis.
   13. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: April 02, 2010 at 04:16 PM (#3491152)
I noticed that Arizona IF Tony Abreu is a righty-only hitter in this database; did he stop switch-hitting?

Dan, can you just tell me the fix to Marquis? I'd rather make small changes by hand than mess around with the whole database. I'm always worried I'm going to lose what work I've already finished.

One thing you can do is create an empty database, and upload the new file to that. Then you can delete the bad Marquis, and import the corrected Marquis into the database you're working with.
   14. Vandy1Fan Posted: April 02, 2010 at 11:44 PM (#3491508)
Can you do a DMB projection for Mike leake? He has been named the Red's #5 starter.
   15. Vandy1Fan Posted: April 03, 2010 at 12:26 AM (#3491515)
Also, do Logan Ondrusek, if you can.. he made the Reds also.
   16. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: April 04, 2010 at 03:05 AM (#3491887)
Also, Sergio Santos made the White Sox.
   17. GrooveMaster Posted: April 20, 2010 at 05:16 AM (#3508282)
I just bought DMB9 and followed the directions above. When I do the File --> Restore, I get an error "unable to build database indexes" Does anyone understand what's going on and how to fix it?
   18. VK_Ratliff Posted: April 22, 2010 at 02:43 PM (#3510701)
I just bought DMB9 and followed the directions above. When I do the File --> Restore, I get an error "unable to build database indexes" Does anyone understand what's going on and how to fix it?


You might find the answer in these instructions on the DMB forum, posted by "diesel," the game's tech expert:

http://dmbforum.yuku.com/topic/5764

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