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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee’s plan for 2010 turned out to be ill-fated, but even in hindsight, it really wasn’t all that awful.  As far as I can tell, the Brewers hoped to win a fairly weak division by their star hitters having star years, a good offensive supporting cast helping the team to be a Top 5 offense, a pitching staff with Yovani Gallardo having a full, star season, book-ended by Trevor Hoffman and his ageless changeup, with enough inning-eaters in the middle to keep the staff in the middle of the pack.  All that works out and you have a 90-win team, formidable in the NL Central.

It didn’t, though.  Randy Wolf, David Bush, and Chris Narveson ate a lot of innings, but threw too many of them back up on the mound.  Doug Davis, after only missing a few starts in 6 years and a 4.12 ERA, had a year so bad that it broke his heart, literally, and the elbow finished his year off.  Trevor Hoffman’s changeup, the best or second-best closer changeup that I’ve ever seen (Doug Jones puts up a fight), had some problems hitting his spots, which has a tendency to turn changes-in-speed into changes-in-eventual-ball-location.  The emergence of John Axford, whose control finally clicked, and Zach Braddock, always a good arm that will stay in relief due to injury concerns, probably saved the bullpen from reaching Diamondback levels of ugly.  After all that, the stars on the team needed to have STAR years rather than the merely run-of-the-mill awesomness that Fielder and Braun provided.

The good news for the Brewers is that the offense stays intact, at least for one more season.  The bad news is that there doesn’t look to be much the Brewers can really do to turn the pitching around.  The meager scraps available on the free-agent market are quickly have mostly been scooped up.  As Milwaukee isn’t going to sign Cliff Lee, the only thing they can really do is try to get into the high-upside risks like Brandon Webb or Rich Harden and hope the dice come up better this year.  Even that may be a stretch as most teams that need pitching are going to have to go this route if they don’t have internal options.

Right now, this is looking like a very .500 team.

Next up:  Baltimore

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Prince Fielder    L    1B  27   .274 .399 .530 156 562  92 154  28   1  38 104 105 136   2   1  148
Ryan Braun        R    LF  27   .295 .355 .525 156 621  98 183  40   5  31 108  52 120  18   5  133
Corey Hart        R    RF  29   .272 .327 .480 145 548  79 149  35   5  23  84  41 116  13   6  114
Rickie Weeks      R    2B  28   .249 .352 .436 119 466  81 116  22   4  19  56  59 130  13   4  111
Mat Gamel         L    3B  25   .265 .337 .430 144 509  69 135  30   3  16  79  53 141   4   3  105
Casey McGehee     R    3B  28   .272 .322 .430 145 530  60 144  31   1  17  86  41  97   1   2  101
Gregg Zaun        B    C   40   .255 .341 .403  47 149  18  38  10   0   4  21  17  25   0   1  100
Angel Salome      R    DH  25   .268 .312 .401  99 362  40  97  22   1   8  54  23  71   1   1   90
Chris Dickerson   L    CF  29   .238 .326 .383  94 282  40  67  12   4   7  26  36  94  16   6   90
Kentrail Davis    L    RF  23   .248 .335 .369 115 452  64 112  28   9   3  59  46  92   9   3   90
Alcides Escobar   R    SS  24   .269 .315 .368 156 576  78 155  23   8   6  52  36  84  24   7   83
George Kottaras   L    C   28   .230 .315 .398  76 244  28  56  15   1   8  29  32  61   1   0   91
Caleb Gindl       L    RF  22   .251 .320 .384 147 541  61 136  30   3  12  68  53 120  14   7   89
Joe Inglett       L    RF  33   .266 .326 .375 101 256  30  68  12   5   2  21  21  42   4   3   88
Brendan Katin     R    RF  28   .227 .291 .429 112 396  50  90  22   2  18  65  28 135   3   1   91
Jonathan Lucroy   R    C   25   .256 .318 .377 137 504  53 129  26   1  11  61  46  91   5   2   87
Brett Lawrie      R    2B  21   .254 .309 .400 156 623  78 158  32  13  11  69  46 153  25  15   89
Lorenzo Cain      R    CF  25   .254 .317 .355 126 484  57 123  23   7   4  39  41 118  21   5   81
Carlos Gomez      R    CF  25   .249 .305 .360 144 430  59 107  18   6   6  39  29 103  27   8   78
Taylor Green      L    3B  24   .247 .311 .380 127 461  45 114  26   1  11  71  42  85   1   3   85
Eric Farris       R    2B  25   .265 .296 .339 108 437  51 116  16   2   4  34  17  53  29   6   71
Joe Koshansky     L    1B  29   .216 .304 .393 132 453  56  98  21   1  19  72  53 171   3   2   86
Craig Counsell    L    SS  40   .259 .326 .351 103 259  27  67  11   2   3  26  24  36   2   2   83
Erick Almonte     R    1B  33   .253 .317 .335 104 316  30  80  15   1   3  31  28  64   3   1   76
Luis Cruz         R    SS  27   .257 .287 .372 134 478  51 123  28   3   7  53  16  58   2   2   76
Zelous Wheeler    R    SS  24   .239 .321 .343 153 557  63 133  25   3   9  68  58 121   9   7   79
Adam Stern        L    LF  31   .254 .305 .342  88 319  40  81  13   3   3  23  23  57  10   5   74
Chris Nowak       R    1B  28   .232 .296 .338 119 453  49 105  21   3   7  52  38 113   7   2   70
Norris Hopper     R    CF  32   .265 .308 .299  97 355  37  94  10   1   0  21  22  33  13   6   65
Ray Olmedo        B    2B  30   .252 .289 .335 116 409  44 103  16   3   4  40  19  67   8   8   67
Anderson Machado  B    SS  30   .203 .292 .297  88 236  21  48  12   2   2  20  29  73   3   1   59
Martin Maldonado  R    C   24   .223 .286 .311 103 328  25  73  14   0   5  33  24  85   2   3   61

Defensive Projections

   Player             CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Prince Fielder               FR/107
Ryan Braun                                                   AV /48
Corey Hart                                                                   AV/100
Rickie Weeks                         AV/139
Mat Gamel                                    FR/168
Casey McGehee                AV/104  PO/116  FR/104
Gregg Zaun               FR
Angel Salome             FR                                                  FR/113
Chris Dickerson                                              VG/127   FR/82  AV/131
Kentrail Davis                                                       FR/143  AV/134
Alcides Escobar                       VG/86          VG/108
George Kottaras          FR
Caleb Gindl                                                  FR/173  FR/139  FR/173
Joe Inglett                          AV/148  AV/112  PO/121  AV/127          AV/141
Brendan Katin                                                FR/187          FR/195
Jonathan Lucroy          VG
Brett Lawrie                         AV/201
Lorenzo Cain                                                 VG/106  AV/154  VG/106
Carlos Gomez                                                         VG/140
Taylor Green                 AV/107          AV/133
Eric Farris                          AV/134          FR/114
Joe Koshansky                AV/118
Craig Counsell                        VG/82  AV/108   AV/89
Erick Almonte                AV/134  FR/122  PO/112  FR/109                  AV/114
Luis Cruz                    VG/127  VG/118  VG/124  AV/111  AV/113  AV/113  AV/113
Zelous Wheeler                       FR/125  AV/113  PO/176  AV/123
Adam Stern                                                    AV/63   PO/92   AV/87
Chris Nowak                  AV/152          FR/105          FR/109
Norris Hopper                                                 VG/98   VG/86   VG/88
Ray Olmedo                           AV/112  FR/109  PO/137  AV/129
Anderson Machado             AV/130  FR/154  AV/117  FR/164                  AV/114
Martin Maldonado         VG

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Yovani Gallardo   R     25    3.49    12    7   26   26  159.7  139   62   14   68  176  117
Randy Wolf        L     34    4.09    12   10   32   32  198.0  189   90   24   72  150  100
Chris Capuano     L     32    4.22     7    6   28   17  111.0  111   52   13   35   92   97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Doug Davis        L     35    4.50     7    7   21   21  116.0  118   58   13   58   94   91
Marco Estrada     R     27    4.53     5    5   25   18  101.3  105   51   11   40   75   91
Chris Narveson    L     29    4.76     8    9   38   22  145.7  148   77   20   60  119   86
Mark Rogers       R     25    4.82     5    6   26   24   89.7   86   48    7   70   70   85
Manny Parra       L     28    4.84     8   10   38   24  152.3  158   82   19   77  143   85
David Bush        R     31    4.86     8   10   29   28  157.3  167   85   24   53  103   84
Kyle Heckathorn   L     23    4.93     7    9   26   22  118.7  138   65    9   52   61   83
Amaury Rivas      R     25    5.47     7   11   26   24  125.0  138   76   17   68   79   75
Cody Scarpetta    R     22    5.58     7   11   28   25  113.0  119   70   11   92   90   74
Sam Narron        L     29    5.62     5    9   20   17  107.3  138   67   14   34   43   73
Alex Periard      R     24    5.69     2    4   12   12   55.3   69   35    7   23   21   72
Chris Cody        L     27    5.71     6   11   25   21  116.7  137   74   20   46   67   72
Dan Merklinger    L     25    5.74     5    9   25   21  109.7  123   70   16   64   82   71
Wily Peralta      R     22    5.75     4    8   28   22  123.7  140   79   15   82   78   71
Michael Bowman    R     24    5.91     7   13   26   26  128.0  154   84   16   71   71   70
Josh Butler       R     26    6.07     4    9   23   22   99.3  118   67   13   61   55   68
Chase Wright      L     28    6.08     5   11   27   26  133.3  167   90   20   63   59   68
Chuck Lofgren     L     25    6.44     4   10   27   22  116.0  133   83   23   75   71   64
Mike Jones        R     28    6.59     2    5   23   13   68.3   82   50   10   51   35   62
Chris Waters      L     30    6.61     5   12   27   23  115.7  137   85   23   73   60   62
Marty McLeary     R     36    6.69     3    8   17   15   76.7  104   57   12   39   40   61

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Zach Braddock     L     23    3.35     3    1   43    0   45.7   37   17    5   21   56  123
John Axford       R     28    3.62     8    5   58    0   69.7   58   28    5   42   78  114
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brandon Kintzler  R     26    3.89     3    2   39    0   44.0   43   19    4   13   34  106
LaTroy Hawkins    R     38    3.95     2    2   41    0   41.0   40   18    4   13   32  104
Mike McClendon    R     26    4.00     3    2   48    0   72.0   74   32    6   25   47  103
Carlos Villanueva R     27    4.23     4    3   60    4   89.3   84   42   12   33   91   97
Todd Coffey       R     30    4.26     4    3   70    0   69.7   70   33    8   24   59   96
Trevor Hoffman    R     43    4.27     4    3   50    0   46.3   45   22    5   17   36   96
Jeremy Jeffress   R     23    4.40     1    1   29    0   28.7   26   14    3   20   27   93
Kameron Loe       R     29    4.62     7    7   47   12  115.0  123   59   13   43   71   89
Mitch Stetter     L     30    4.72     3    3   59    0   47.7   46   25    7   25   47   87
David Riske       R     34    4.73     1    1   26    0   26.7   28   14    3   12   19   87
Tim Dillard       R     27    4.82     6    7   41   11  114.0  126   61   11   47   61   85
Justin James      R     29    4.94     2    3   31    2   47.3   49   26    6   24   35   83
Jeff Bennett      R     31    5.20     3    4   41    5   53.7   58   31    5   33   37   79
David Johnson     R     28    5.31     2    3   48    0   61.0   66   36    9   32   46   77

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Ryan Braun          .284  .340  .490  2295  9200  1355  2612   549    63   408  1460   695  1601   204   124
Prince Fielder      .263  .375  .486  2492  9060  1324  2383   453    22   507  1487  1447  1907    36   132
Rickie Weeks        .248  .346  .416  1710  6634  1112  1644   301    58   234   724   780  1586   175   106
Corey Hart          .267  .322  .463  1654  6135   861  1637   377    54   239   898   446  1220   141   107
Casey McGehee       .270  .319  .421  1400  5086   566  1372   282     9   156   797   383   808     5   101
Carlos Gomez        .246  .300  .359  1283  3794   525   934   165    45    58   356   245   892   202    77

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Randy Wolf         162  143    0    4.23  454  449     2754 2674 1295  355 1015 2164     99
Yovani Gallardo    161   92    0    3.48  361  358     2188 1873  845  199  939 2423    119
Doug Davis         107  119    0    4.43  351  331     1961 2060  966  210  909 1480    101

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Prince Fielder    1B    66%  24%   6%   3%   1%     Jason Thompson        Boog Powell      Willie Aikens
Ryan Braun        LF    58%  27%   9%   4%   2%      Matt Holliday     Rick Reichardt          Del Ennis
Corey Hart        RF    16%  29%  20%  18%  17%          Gary Ward           Dan Ford      Marty Cordova
Rickie Weeks      2B    55%  19%  13%   9%   4%   Frankie Crosetti     Robby Thompson         Sean Berry
Mat Gamel         3B    11%  24%  25%  22%  18%         Roy Howell        Jack Howell       Brook Jacoby
Casey McGehee     3B     6%  17%  23%  27%  26%      Mike Cervenak        Clete Boyer     Jhonny Peralta
Gregg Zaun        C     19%  30%  23%  19%  10%        Gary Carter       Rick Dempsey       Steve Decker
Angel Salome      DH     0%   2%   5%  25%  68%     Kendry Morales         Phil Clark         Ken Harvey
Chris Dickerson   CF     9%  13%  26%  28%  25%     Cesar Geronimo    Herm Winningham          Al Bumbry
Kentrail Davis    RF     1%   5%  10%  21%  64%       Duane Walker      Louie Meadows        Brian Giles
Alcides Escobar   SS     8%  19%  32%  26%  15%      Royce Clayton    Joseph Thurston        Erick Aybar
George Kottaras   C     12%  25%  23%  24%  17%    Scott Hatteberg          John Buck       Chad Kreuter
Caleb Gindl       RF     2%   6%   8%  16%  67%      Nick Markakis        Jessie Reid       Danny Putnam
Joe Inglett       RF     1%   5%   7%  17%  70%      Dave Martinez   Orlando Palmeiro       Tommy McCraw
Brendan Katin     RF     1%   6%  10%  20%  63%      Willie Darkis         Kevin Witt        Troy Afenir
Jonathan Lucroy   C      5%  15%  23%  34%  22%    Jason Jaramillo         Koyie Hill        Kurt Suzuki
Brett Lawrie      2B     9%   8%  13%  22%  47%     Mariano Duncan      William Suero    Joseph Thurston
Lorenzo Cain      CF     2%   6%  20%  36%  36%    Herm Winningham        Xavier Paul     Kevin Rhomberg
Carlos Gomez      CF     3%   6%  17%  31%  44%        Chris Duffy     Chris Roberson        Jason Repko
Taylor Green      3B     1%   4%   9%  19%  66%      Jared Goedert       Scott Cooper         Greg David
Eric Farris       2B     4%   5%   8%  20%  63%       Miguel Cairo     Danny Sandoval       Eider Torres
Joe Koshansky     1B     1%   2%   4%  18%  75%      Scott Cepicky          Pat Adams      James Jurries
Craig Counsell    SS     5%   8%  19%  30%  37%        Rick Miller      Jim Davenport           Tom Herr
Erick Almonte     1B     0%   0%   1%   6%  92%       Dusty Wathan        Gene Clines        Jamie Burke
Luis Cruz         SS     2%   4%  12%  27%  55%   Brandon Pinckney         Deivi CruzChristopher Minaker
Zelous Wheeler    SS     3%   6%  17%  29%  45%        Billy White      Justin Snyder   Pedro Castellano
Adam Stern        LF     0%   0%   1%   4%  94%      Cory Sullivan        Joe Simpson        Gene Clines
Chris Nowak       1B     0%   0%   0%   2%  97%         Doug Clark         B.J. Barns      Jason Jackson
Norris Hopper     CF     0%   0%   1%   5%  93%       Jim Buccheri         Eric Owens        Gene Clines
Ray Olmedo        2B     0%   1%   1%   2%  96%        Jose Olmeda   Jackie Gutierrez     Rondin Johnson
Anderson Machado  SS     1%   1%   2%   7%  90%      Frank Kellner         Doug Baker    Douglas Bernier
Martin Maldonado  C      1%   1%   2%   8%  88%     Lance Jennings       Alvin Colina       Doug Lindsey

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Zach Braddock     RP     46%   39%   15%       Billy McCool        John Rocker        Randy Myers
Yovani Gallardo   SP     72%   25%    2%        Bump Hadley       Josh Beckett          Mike Witt
John Axford       RP     36%   50%   15%           Jim Kern         Ryne Duren     Frank Williams
Brandon Kintzler  RP     27%   44%   29%      Chris Reitsma       Cla Meredith      Rusty Meacham
LaTroy Hawkins    RP     24%   45%   32%          Ted Power        Dennis Lamp           Ron Reed
Mike McClendon    RP     19%   48%   34%    Mark Williamson       John Doherty  Franquelis Osoria
Randy Wolf        SP     22%   62%   17%        Bob Knepper       Denny Neagle       Jim Deshaies
Chris Capuano     SP     27%   49%   23%        David Wells        Jon Matlack      Chris Hammond
Carlos Villanueva RP      8%   50%   42%         Pat Neshek        Luis DeLeon        Chuck Ricci
Todd Coffey       RP     11%   49%   39%       Bruce Walton     Larry Andersen          Pete Ladd
Trevor Hoffman    RP     26%   33%   42%       Doug Brocail          Jose Mesa           Ron Reed
Jeremy Jeffress   RP     16%   28%   56%       Tom Thurberg        Saul Rivera         Jeff Innis
Doug Davis        SP     13%   48%   39%          Bob Ojeda          Vida Blue        Shawn Estes
Marco Estrada     SP     15%   49%   36%        Storm Davis        Luis Aquino       Dickie Noles
Kameron Loe       RP      4%   32%   65%      Kirk Saarloos     Steve Fireovid        Steve Comer
Mitch Stetter     RP      5%   25%   70%         Todd Genke      Jack Taschner      Greg McCarthy
David Riske       RP     14%   26%   61%       Ricky Barlow        Pat Mahomes       Rodney Myers
Chris Narveson    SP      4%   42%   53%         Mark Mimbs       Will Brunson        Bob Shirley
Tim Dillard       RP      3%   22%   75%        Tommie Sisk         Bob Purkey    Marino Pieretti
Mark Rogers       SP      8%   35%   57%       Dick Ruthven   Colin McLaughlin      Dave Morehead
Manny Parra       SP      4%   42%   54%       Pete Falcone          Al Leiter       Mike Gosling
David Bush        SP      2%   34%   64%        Brett Tomko      James Baldwin    Travis Driskill
Kyle Heckathorn   SP      4%   31%   64%         Jeff Mutis        Mike Miller       Jake Chapman
Justin James      RP      3%   20%   76%        Marcus Gwyn       Ryan Cameron      Corey Brittan
Jeff Bennett      RP      2%   16%   82%   Jarod Juelsgaard      Jerry Johnson     Dwight Bernard
David Johnson     RP      1%   13%   86%       James Warden         Nate Field      Travis Hughes
Amaury Rivas      SP      0%   13%   87%   Jason Standridge     Gerrit Simpson           Zach Day
Cody Scarpetta    SP      0%   10%   89%     Bill Mooneyham      Kevin Coffman         Kevin Ritz
Sam Narron        SP      1%   11%   88%    John Rheinecker       Jamie Walker       Dave Gassner
Alex Periard      SP      2%   12%   85%         Shane Loux       Nate Cornejo        Peter Bauer
Chris Cody        SP      0%    6%   93%     Heath Phillips          Omar Daal       Benj Sampson
Dan Merklinger    SP      0%    8%   92%     Camilo Vazquez       Matt Perisho         Matt Smith
Wily Peralta      SP      0%    6%   94%     Jason Phillips        Rich Dorman        Edwin Morel
Michael Bowman    SP      0%    3%   96%     Carlos Paredes     Rick Sutcliffe            Ken Ray
Josh Butler       SP      0%    3%   96%     Carlos Paredes    Chris Buglovsky          Ben Fritz
Chase Wright      SP      0%    2%   98%     Mike Prochaska     David Davidson        Lance Davis
Chuck Lofgren     SP      0%    1%   99%         Tom Singer          Corey Lee       Chris Waters
Mike Jones        SP      0%    2%   98%     Mike Drumright    Jared Fernandez           Ben Ford
Chris Waters      SP      0%    1%   99%          Dan Smith        Don Collins          Tom Drees
Marty McLeary     SP      0%    2%   98%         Bobby Witt         Aaron Sele     Scott Erickson

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Prince Fielder          15%      76%      68%       2%       0%      82%      60%       0%
Ryan Braun              40%      21%      65%      37%       8%      60%      33%      15%
Corey Hart              12%       4%      27%      11%       7%      14%       6%       4%
Rickie Weeks             2%      22%       8%       0%       4%       6%       6%       3%
Mat Gamel                8%       9%       7%       4%       2%       3%       4%       0%
Casey McGehee           11%       3%       6%       4%       0%       3%       2%       0%
Gregg Zaun              13%      19%       7%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%
Angel Salome            10%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Dickerson          2%       6%       1%       0%       3%       0%       1%       3%
Kentrail Davis           2%       7%       0%       2%      45%       0%       0%       0%
Alcides Escobar          9%       1%       0%       1%      41%       0%       0%      28%
George Kottaras          1%       6%       4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Caleb Gindl              2%       2%       1%       5%       2%       1%       0%       7%
Joe Inglett             14%       7%       1%       0%       9%       0%       0%       0%
Brendan Katin            0%       0%       6%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%
Jonathan Lucroy          3%       2%       1%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Brett Lawrie             3%       1%       4%      10%      69%       2%       2%      26%
Lorenzo Cain             3%       2%       0%       0%      24%       0%       0%       9%
Carlos Gomez             2%       1%       1%       0%      10%       0%       0%      33%
Taylor Green             2%       1%       1%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Eric Farris              7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Joe Koshansky            0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       5%       1%       0%
Craig Counsell          10%       8%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Erick Almonte            4%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Luis Cruz                3%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Zelous Wheeler           0%       2%       1%       1%       2%       1%       0%       1%
Adam Stern               5%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Nowak              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Norris Hopper            8%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%
Ray Olmedo               2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Anderson Machado         0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Martin Maldonado         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Zach Braddock             46%        80%        96%         1%        68%
Yovani Gallardo           33%        89%        96%         0%        87%
John Axford               29%        81%        93%         0%        92%
Brandon Kintzler          20%        63%        17%        23%        71%
LaTroy Hawkins            24%        60%        21%        15%        78%
Mike McClendon            14%        60%         2%         7%        84%
Randy Wolf                 4%        49%         7%         1%        41%
Chris Capuano              7%        46%        26%         8%        49%
Carlos Villanueva          6%        46%        88%         1%        36%
Todd Coffey                8%        54%        29%         6%        56%
Trevor Hoffman            20%        52%        21%         9%        56%
Jeremy Jeffress           16%        44%        59%         0%        72%
Doug Davis                 2%        29%        21%         0%        60%
Marco Estrada              2%        32%         5%         0%        62%
Kameron Loe                3%        23%         2%         4%        55%
Mitch Stetter              3%        23%        68%         0%        32%
David Riske               14%        39%        11%         5%        69%
Chris Narveson             0%        15%        18%         0%        27%
Tim Dillard                3%        19%         3%         3%        74%
Mark Rogers                1%        20%        17%         0%        88%
Manny Parra                0%        13%        64%         0%        43%
David Bush                 0%        10%         0%         2%        11%
Kyle Heckathorn            1%        12%         0%         0%        87%
Justin James               2%        18%         8%         0%        39%
Jeff Bennett               1%        14%         7%         0%        69%
David Johnson              0%        10%         9%         0%        36%
Amaury Rivas               0%         2%         0%         0%        29%
Cody Scarpetta             0%         2%        17%         0%        76%
Sam Narron                 0%         3%         0%         9%        45%
Alex Periard               0%         5%         0%         2%        49%
Chris Cody                 0%         1%         0%         0%        10%
Dan Merklinger             0%         1%         5%         0%        22%
Wily Peralta               0%         1%         0%         0%        50%
Michael Bowman             0%         0%         0%         0%        37%
Josh Butler                0%         0%         0%         0%        35%
Chase Wright               0%         0%         0%         0%        20%
Chuck Lofgren              0%         0%         0%         0%         3%
Mike Jones                 0%         0%         0%         0%        31%
Chris Waters               0%         0%         0%         0%         5%
Marty McLeary              0%         1%         0%         0%        25%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2010 at 05:02 PM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. monkhenry Posted: November 30, 2010 at 05:33 PM (#3699241)
Why is Carlos Gomez downgraded to VG in CF ?
   2. Rays&Sox; Posted: November 30, 2010 at 05:44 PM (#3699254)
Dan, could we get a projection for Mark DiFelice? He missed last year with injury, but they resigned him before the instructional league.
   3. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 30, 2010 at 05:52 PM (#3699261)
Gomez is not a very good centerfielder. Complete misnomer. Too many bad jumps.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2010 at 05:55 PM (#3699264)
Dan, could we get a projection for Mark DiFelice?

I guess I can't get away with "Last year, but worse?"

2-1, 3.82, 35.1 IP, 33 H, 4 HR, 10 BB, 32 K, ERA+ 107.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2010 at 06:01 PM (#3699267)
Gomez is not a very good centerfielder. Complete misnomer. Too many bad jumps.

Yeah, but I'm just looking at the results - he could be a lot better with his speed than he is, but he's still converting balls into outs at a good rate. He's not Alex Sanchez, who was a fast player with worse judgment than a little league outfielder.

Why is Carlos Gomez downgraded to VG in CF ?

All his defensive numbers were down (and generally quite severely), no matter the source data. Based just on 2010 data, I'd probably have him downgraded all the way to AVG, but there's enough uncertainty with one-year defensive data (essentially the equivalent of two months of offensive data in volatility) to not freak out too much.
   6. steagles Posted: November 30, 2010 at 06:08 PM (#3699276)
i got nothing.


*EDIT*actually, now that i think about it, i could say something else. i went to college with zack braddock. he was in the last class of draft and follows, so i played with him at a CC in new jersey.


he's added a good bit of velocity since then. he was topping out 89-90 back then (though that was as a starter), and he's been touching 96-97 so far on pitch f/x.

that is all.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: November 30, 2010 at 07:12 PM (#3699337)
Angel Salome R DH

Ummm ... Mr. Salome might want to find a new organization.

Gary Ward Dan Ford Marty Cordova

Great comps for each other -- I don't think I could tell the difference between Ward and Ford when they played -- but obviously horrible comps for Corey Hart who has never played for the Twins.

Great comps abound in this edition: Roy Howell & Jack Howell on the same line (brilliant!), Willie Mays Aiken, somebody named Brandon Pinckney (you made that one up didn't you?), Billy McCool, John Rocker, Bump Hadley, Ryne Duren, somebody named Franquelis Osoria.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: November 30, 2010 at 07:22 PM (#3699342)
As to actual baseball content:

the Braun projection is interesting. Hard guy to project as the Ks keep coming down and bringing the power down with it. ZiPS sees the power bouncing back to 2009 levels (perfectly reasonable) but sees the BA dropping -- a career 307 hitter projected to 295 (a quick Marcel puts him around 305). All told ZiPS is projecting Braun to hit exactly like 2009 except for a 25 point drop in BA. Ah well, if them's the numbers, them's the numbers.

And I was gonna snark about the pointlessness of a Capuano projection but, holy crap, he actually pitched in 2010 and pitched pretty well.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 30, 2010 at 07:23 PM (#3699347)
This is an organization that just five years ago I would have thought would be a perennial serious contender, but it seems like they are wallowing in a rut of mediocrity, and it doesn't appear as if they have a pipeline of young talent to change that any time soon. Kinda reminds me of the 80s Brewers who seemed to finish 81-81 every single year.
   10. jar75 Posted: November 30, 2010 at 08:05 PM (#3699368)
Mike McClendon has two different projections.
   11. BobbyS Posted: November 30, 2010 at 08:35 PM (#3699409)
Man, 2008 really rips into Weeks' avg and power projection. I'll take the over on both of those.
   12. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: November 30, 2010 at 08:59 PM (#3699430)
Gomez is not a very good centerfielder. Complete misnomer. Too many bad jumps.
This was my impressioin watching him with the Twins for two years. I'm not surprised others share it. I am surprised he hasn't improved in this regard.
   13. Select Storage Device Posted: November 30, 2010 at 09:13 PM (#3699441)
If Dan had a nickel for every time someone took "the over" on ZiPS, he'd have a lot of nickels.
   14. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 30, 2010 at 09:24 PM (#3699452)
Ummm ... Mr. Salome might want to find a new organization.
He's a minor league free agent right now, in fact. Interesting guy - a very short, kinda chunky catcher, once a solid prospect who has battled mental/commitment/family issues and had Milwaukee move him out from behind the plate last year (torpedoing his value).

Franquelis! One of a few six fingered sinker ballers that popped up a few years ago. Unfortunately, while it moved a lot, it wasn't enough to sustain success as he lacked command / other pitches / superlative velocity.
Pinckney was/is a nobody.
   15. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 30, 2010 at 09:54 PM (#3699470)
AG:

Doug couldn't figure out which direction he wanted to go. First he wanted to slug his way to a pennant, hence Braun at first. Didn't like those results. So went pitching/defense as best personified by getting Kendall at catcher. Kind of worked but after CC/Ben left there wasn't sufficient offense to overcome pitching going kaplooey.

Doug lost faith in his plan and then executed poorly against all plans. If you are going to have a plan then COMMIT TO THE PLAN AND GO ALL IN ON THE PLAN.

Hedging equals mediocrity. Sure extremes can result in 71 win seasons. But when you are Milwaukee you have to be willing to take more risks.

Fortune favors the brave.

G*ddamned candy%ss General Manager and his wishy-washy Charlie Brown bullsh&t makes me want to (Yosemite Sam soundtrack)
   16. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 01, 2010 at 01:59 PM (#3699810)
There's a person named Billy McCool? Awesome!
   17. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 01, 2010 at 02:36 PM (#3699823)
Much like "Paul Goldschmidt", I am having trouble imagining a good major-league career from someone named "Dan Merklinger". And this time ZiPS agrees with me.
   18. Cris E Posted: December 01, 2010 at 03:53 PM (#3699854)
Harvey, that's what everyone said about COL for so many years before they settled down and started winning. Power hitters! Strikeout pitchers! Changeups! Defense! How about some good ballplayers? That's one thing that's nice/frustrating about following the Twins: you can usually guess what they'll do next. Some days it's giving Mauer $23m, and some days it's giving Punto $4m.
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 01, 2010 at 04:14 PM (#3699887)
Much like "Paul Goldschmidt", I am having trouble imagining a good major-league career from someone named "Dan Merklinger". And this time ZiPS agrees with me.

Would anyone have thought of a successful major leaguer being named Bert Blyleven? Or Chone Figgins?
   20. Josh1 Posted: December 01, 2010 at 04:18 PM (#3699894)
The Fielder comps are worrisome for those who want to sign him as a FA at age 28, though the career projection is quite good.
   21. shoewizard Posted: December 01, 2010 at 04:28 PM (#3699909)
Not really feelin the Jason Thompson comp as number 1 for prince. Boog feels right. Aikens never had that kind of HR power really. These seem a bit off for some reason.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 01, 2010 at 04:45 PM (#3699924)
Again, ZiPS looks at a lot more things, but here are Fielder, Thompson, Powell, Aikens, and the next 2 comps, Mo Vaughn and Hrbek, over the previous 4 years weighted, 2010 Neutral park/league per 600 plate appearances. They're in random order, too, so you'll have to guess.


B PO 1B 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG RC
L 1B 80 29 1 31 72 144 .273 .369 .511 98
L 1B 89 27 1 29 73 84 .279 .370 .502 97
L 1B 74 27 1 31 96 135 .264 .379 .505 96
L 1B 81 27 0 28 79 120 .283 .384 .513 99
L 1B 82 24 1 30 85 119 .274 .389 .502 98
L 1B 87 28 1 30 76 124 .280 .373 .511 99


Answer Key
   23. Bob Evans Posted: December 01, 2010 at 07:22 PM (#3700140)
Would anyone have thought of a successful major leaguer being named Bert Blyleven? Or Chone Figgins?

I'll take the under on local dry goods dealer and Chamber of Commerce president "Hank Greenberg". And "Napoleon Lajoie" sounds like a brand of pipe tobacco, or possibly condoms.
   24. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: December 02, 2010 at 10:05 AM (#3700666)
fielder is third, thompson is first, powell is 6th, aikens is 5th, the beef master 4th and hrbek is second
   25. caprules Posted: December 06, 2010 at 05:15 AM (#3703676)
Brewers trade for Marcum, reportedly send Lawrie.

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