Offensive Projections
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Adam LaRoche* 1b 30 .287 .363 .520 142 513 80 147 38 2 26 109 63 130 1 1 122
Justin Upton rf 22 .282 .363 .521 141 511 79 144 30 7 26 90 64 134 9 3 122
Mark Reynolds 3b 26 .258 .341 .509 146 530 85 137 28 3 33 106 64 182 7 3 113
Kelly Johnson* 2b 28 .279 .352 .472 127 434 66 121 30 6 14 64 48 84 5 2 108
Conor Jackson lf 28 .278 .357 .441 102 356 50 99 22 3 10 59 40 46 4 1 103
Jeff Bailey 1b 31 .271 .357 .441 108 388 49 105 17 2 15 40 45 87 3 2 102
Miguel Montero* c 26 .275 .342 .451 112 346 44 95 23 1 12 56 33 61 0 1 100
Ryan Roberts 2b 29 .274 .351 .414 119 391 45 107 22 3 9 48 45 71 7 2 95
Chris Snyder c 29 .238 .340 .431 88 260 31 62 15 1 11 49 38 65 0 0 95
Stephen Drew* ss 27 .265 .324 .444 142 554 73 147 33 9 16 77 50 95 3 1 93
Cole Gillespie lf 26 .259 .338 .410 137 483 69 125 28 6 11 73 55 108 9 3 90
Tony Abreu 2b 25 .284 .326 .427 117 440 54 125 29 5 8 55 25 71 3 2 90
Chad Tracy* 1b 30 .261 .322 .420 108 333 38 87 21 1 10 57 30 57 1 0 88
Gerardo Parra* lf 23 .283 .336 .405 145 558 68 158 28 8 8 72 44 89 12 8 88
Eric Byrnes lf 34 .255 .313 .433 101 365 52 93 23 3 12 55 27 55 11 2 88
Chris Young cf 26 .236 .315 .440 156 563 77 133 36 5 23 83 62 143 9 3 90
Brandon Allen* 1b 24 .260 .313 .431 140 543 58 141 31 4 18 73 39 138 5 2 87
Tony Clark# 1b 38 .237 .333 .395 66 114 8 27 6 0 4 20 17 31 0 0 85
Augie Ojeda# 2b 35 .258 .345 .358 91 229 30 59 13 2 2 23 25 25 1 0 80
Rusty Ryal 2b 27 .261 .310 .421 127 468 54 122 26 5 13 64 28 102 3 4 84
Collin Cowgill rf 24 .245 .319 .394 70 277 33 68 14 3 7 39 26 70 5 2 81
Orlando Mercado c 25 .257 .336 .363 87 284 26 73 16 1 4 42 33 38 0 1 79
John Hester c 26 .258 .298 .402 102 353 40 91 23 2 8 53 19 76 4 2 77
Drew Macias* cf 27 .249 .329 .360 138 450 64 112 25 2 7 46 50 88 6 6 76
Carlos Corporan# c 26 .251 .295 .369 77 255 22 64 16 1 4 36 11 54 0 1 68
Pedro Ciriaco ss 24 .268 .292 .343 132 530 57 142 22 3 4 52 17 92 22 9 62
Defensive Projections
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
LaRoche* Av/82
Upton Av/197 Av/180 Vg/197
Reynolds Av/133 Fr/133
Johnson* Fr/122 Av/122
Jackson Av/113 Av/117
Bailey Av/130 Fr/166 Fr/166
Montero* Fr
Roberts Av/112 Av/147 Fr/131 Av/112 Av/112
Snyder Av
Drew* Av/96
Gillespie Vg/105 Fr/101 Vg/83
Abreu Av/98 Vg/107 Fr/117
Tracy* Av/87 Fr/87 Fr/87
Parra* Vg/140 Fr/158 Vg/140
Byrnes Vg/81 Fr/59 Vg/81
Young Av/100
Allen* Av/123
Clark# Fr/96
Ojeda# Av/90 Vg/90 Av/90
Ryal Fr/114 Fr/136
Cowgill Fr/188 Fr/125 Fr/188
Mercado Av Fr/125
Hester Fr
Macias* Vg/99 Av/124 Vg/99
Corporan# Vg Av/120
Ciriaco Vg/94 Av/145
* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
UptonJustin RF 29% 38% 18% 11% 4% KomminskBrad TartabullDanny HouseholderPaul
LaRocheAdam 1B 18% 37% 25% 17% 3% SorrentoPaul DaubachBrian HornSam
ReynoldsMark 3B 26% 32% 22% 13% 8% EsaskyNick DykesJimmie BerrySean
JohnsonKelly 2B 38% 26% 20% 12% 4% YoungbloodJoel HeathKelly DillonJoe
JacksonConor LF 5% 16% 20% 28% 31% ClarkBrady RyanRob ChristopherJoe
MonteroMiguel C 16% 38% 25% 16% 5% O’BrienCharlie SaxDave NarronJerry
RobertsRyan 2B 17% 16% 21% 25% 21% MichaelsCass GallegoMike EllisMark
DrewStephen SS 16% 26% 34% 18% 6% UribeJuan WilsonJosh ClapinskiChris
AbreuTony 2B 8% 10% 16% 28% 38% McEwingJoe GustineFrankie BucherJim
SnyderChris C 11% 27% 28% 26% 8% YeagerSteve CorrellVic DaultonDarren
ByrnesEric LF 1% 6% 9% 20% 65% ReynoldsCarl PhilleyDave WilliamsGerald
GillespieCole LF 2% 4% 9% 22% 63% LoweryTerrell AgbayaniBenny WoodTed
ParraGerardo LF 0% 1% 5% 14% 80% OrsulakJoe BeamonTrey HunterBrian
TracyChad 1B 0% 1% 4% 20% 74% PritchettChris BurnhamGary FickRobert
YoungChris CF 4% 9% 25% 36% 27% RiveraRuben VanEveryJon CameronMike
AllenBrandon 1B 0% 2% 4% 22% 72% HocuttMike GillespieEric BrognaRico
RyalRusty 2B 3% 5% 9% 22% 61% ManriqueFred HartBo DeMentDan
OjedaAugie 2B 0% 2% 6% 21% 71% KessingerDon LockhartKeith KubiakTed
CowgillCollin RF 0% 1% 3% 10% 85% BergerMike LoweryTerrell MelianJackson
HesterJohn C 1% 5% 13% 36% 45% PaulJosh FernandezJose BurrellKevin
MercadoOrlando C 0% 4% 13% 37% 46% BenedictBruce PetralliGeno McKeelWalt
CorporanCarlos C 0% 0% 2% 12% 86% WhitesideEli PetersonBrian LopezPedro
CiriacoPedro SS 0% 1% 3% 13% 83% YeldingEric BaughmanJustin BelliardRafael
Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB
UptonJustin 26% 33% 65% 14% 2% 17% 27% 0%
LaRocheAdam 30% 31% 69% 15% 22% 0% 30% 0%
ReynoldsMark 7% 11% 57% 9% 1% 0% 66% 0%
JohnsonKelly 21% 20% 24% 4% 3% 14% 1% 0%
JacksonConor 23% 27% 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MonteroMiguel 20% 13% 14% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
RobertsRyan 18% 20% 6% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%
DrewStephen 10% 3% 11% 1% 7% 55% 2% 0%
AbreuTony 28% 4% 6% 1% 2% 6% 0% 0%
SnyderChris 4% 14% 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
ByrnesEric 6% 2% 8% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
GillespieCole 7% 8% 3% 1% 1% 11% 0% 0%
ParraGerardo 25% 5% 0% 0% 1% 27% 0% 0%
TracyChad 9% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
YoungChris 1% 1% 6% 0% 10% 6% 13% 0%
AllenBrandon 6% 1% 3% 0% 2% 1% 2% 0%
RyalRusty 8% 1% 4% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0%
OjedaAugie 10% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CowgillCollin 4% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
HesterJohn 7% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MercadoOrlando 8% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CorporanCarlos 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CiriacoPedro 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 10%
Pitching Statistics - Starters
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Danny Haren 29 3.04 17 7 34 34 227.2 203 77 23 43 217 155
Brandon Webb 31 3.50 12 7 26 26 164.2 159 64 12 50 128 132
Edwin Jackson 26 4.07 13 10 34 34 203.2 198 92 24 80 153 117
Bryan Augenstein 23 4.97 6 8 24 21 108.2 126 60 15 26 64 93
Ian Kennedy 25 5.00 3 5 17 16 81.0 82 45 8 38 65 95
Rodrigo Lopez 34 5.00 6 9 23 21 126.0 144 70 17 35 78 94
Billy Buckner 26 5.05 9 13 29 29 169.1 191 95 21 67 116 92
Jarrod Parker 21 5.13 6 8 23 23 101.2 114 58 12 51 74 90
Kevin Mulvey 25 5.24 7 10 30 28 156.1 177 91 19 68 98 88
Wade Miley* 23 5.43 6 10 25 25 126.0 149 76 16 52 71 85
Barry Enright 24 5.55 8 13 29 29 157.1 192 97 24 51 86 83
Cesar Valdez 25 5.64 6 11 23 23 119.2 141 75 20 44 67 82
Wes Roemer 23 5.82 7 14 29 29 157.2 193 102 25 65 84 79
Tony Barnette 26 5.99 7 13 28 28 153.1 186 102 29 59 90 77
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Chad Qualls 31 3.56 5 3 66 0 65.2 64 26 6 16 60 130
Clay Zavada* 26 3.62 4 2 48 0 54.2 47 22 6 24 56 128
Bobby Howry 36 4.09 5 4 66 0 66.0 67 30 7 19 52 113
Aaron Heilman 31 4.36 5 5 75 0 76.1 75 37 9 35 69 106
Leonel Rosales 29 4.44 2 2 38 0 46.2 47 23 6 19 36 104
Blaine Boyer 28 4.48 2 2 62 0 64.1 67 32 6 24 47 103
Juan Gutierrez 26 4.52 3 4 70 0 75.2 78 38 7 35 61 102
Bobby Korecky 30 4.52 4 4 52 0 61.2 66 31 6 24 43 102
Esmerling Vasquez 26 4.69 3 3 63 0 63.1 62 33 7 39 49 99
Daniel Stange 24 4.80 3 3 37 0 45.0 49 24 5 20 31 96
T.J. Beam 29 4.98 4 5 45 6 94.0 104 52 13 31 63 93
Roque Mercedes 23 5.01 2 2 49 0 59.1 61 33 8 32 48 92
Jose Marte 26 5.37 3 4 48 0 63.2 69 38 8 41 47 86
Tom Gordon 42 5.40 1 2 21 0 20.0 22 12 2 14 13 86
Zachary Kroenke* 26 5.58 3 4 42 1 59.2 63 37 9 39 39 85
Leyson Septimo* 24 6.06 1 2 40 0 49.0 51 33 6 49 42 76
Jordan Norberto* 23 6.13 2 5 55 0 61.2 66 42 10 51 57 75
* - Throws Left
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
HarenDanny SP 99% 1% 0% SaberhagenBret SheetsBen HarangAaron
WebbBrandon SP 88% 12% 0% PennyBrad ReuschelRick RhodenRick
QuallsChad RP 63% 33% 4% CrewsTim MooreDonnie BeckRod
ZavadaClay RP 62% 33% 5% CarmanDon WalterGene KlineSteve
HowryBobby RP 34% 50% 16% PavlasDave DessensElmer AguileraRick
HeilmanAaron RP 21% 60% 19% CassidyScott PowerTed JonesTodd
RosalesLeo RP 23% 47% 30% BottenfieldKent ColomeJesus GardnerLee
BoyerBlaine RP 19% 53% 28% CrabtreeRobbie WilliamsonMark QuallsChad
GutierrezJuan RP 19% 60% 21% DrummondTim MajewskiGary PaniaguaJose
KoreckyBobby RP 15% 53% 32% RossMark WilliamsTodd SantiagoJose
VasquezEsmerling RP 14% 50% 36% PisciottaMarc CornellJeff GraterolBeiker
StangeDaniel RP 11% 43% 46% GomezSteve EtlerTodd LankfordFrank
BucknerBilly SP 12% 65% 22% AquinoLuis MitreSergio TelfordAnthony
AugensteinBryan SP 13% 55% 31% TelghederDave MillerMike TowersJosh
BeamT.J. RP 3% 41% 56% GreerKenny WinchesterScott StephRod
MercedesRoque RP 7% 44% 49% BottalicoRicky CarmonaRafael BennettShayne
ParkerJarrod SP 10% 51% 39% BitkerJoe BockusRandy BoskieShawn
MulveyKevin SP 5% 51% 44% LoiselleRich BitkerJoe ChestnutTroy
MarteJose RP 2% 26% 72% PisciottaMarc HendersonRyan GilfillanJason
GordonTom RP 17% 18% 65% McMahonDon MesaJose HernandezRoberto
MileyWade SP 3% 39% 58% BikoThomas JacksonZach JeffcoatMike
EnrightBarry SP 1% 36% 63% JohnTommy RamirezElizardo LincolnMike
ValdezCesar SP 2% 34% 64% WilkinsMike PauleyDavid SmartJ.D.
RoemerWes SP 0% 23% 77% BennettJeff PauleyDavid ClutterbuckBryan
BarnetteAnthony SP 0% 12% 88% BauerRick WilkinsMike MiddletonKyle
SeptimoLeyson RP 1% 11% 89% SnyderBrian GarzaMatt BauerPeter
NorbertoJordan RP 0% 9% 90% GriffinFrankie RichardsKevin HerreraAlex
Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9
<1
HarenDanny 91% 100% 73% 82% 71%
WebbBrandon 54% 98% 12% 7% 94%
QuallsChad 56% 94% 53% 45% 67%
ZavadaClay 54% 93% 81% 1% 65%
HowryBobby 28% 80% 16% 21% 53%
HeilmanAaron 16% 71% 50% 0% 63%
RosalesLeo 17% 63% 11% 2% 49%
BoyerBlaine 14% 66% 7% 2% 70%
GutierrezJuan 15% 68% 16% 0% 72%
KoreckyBobby 11% 54% 3% 2% 79%
VasquezEsmerling 10% 51% 10% 0% 66%
StangeDaniel 7% 46% 3% 1% 56%
BucknerBilly 1% 37% 1% 0% 50%
AugensteinBryan 2% 36% 0% 39% 30%
BeamT.J. 2% 33% 0% 4% 31%
MercedesRoque 5% 37% 21% 0% 45%
ParkerJarrod 1% 27% 4% 0% 51%
MulveyKevin 0% 20% 0% 0% 39%
MarteJose 1% 18% 6% 0% 53%
GordonTom 10% 35% 11% 1% 63%
MileyWade 0% 13% 0% 0% 36%
EnrightBarry 0% 8% 0% 3% 16%
ValdezCesar 0% 10% 0% 1% 11%
RoemerWes 0% 3% 0% 0% 15%
BarnetteAnthony 0% 1% 0% 0% 3%
SeptimoLeyson 0% 8% 34% 0% 44%
NorbertoJordan 0% 5% 55% 0% 20%
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
ReynoldsMark .248 .334 .486 1646 5909 938 1467 290 28 352 1122 736 2154 90 36 106
DrewStephen .260 .320 .429 1610 6227 809 1617 348 95 172 801 575 1148 39 13 89
UptonJustin .276 .364 .499 2228 7992 1252 2202 413 83 403 1358 1104 2207 115 48 118
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+
HarenDanny 222 137 0 3.52 504 494 3251 3059 386 718 3016 129
WebbBrandon 180 123 0 3.55 400 399 2586 2468 196 849 2026 130
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Patriot87 Posted: January 19, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3441506)You're looking at the Cone of Uncertainty. A lot can go wrong in 15 years.
NOTE: this particular comment is not a nitpick, or a criticism of the system, it's just noting my impression.
Now this one's easy to explain!
Johnson, ARI: 279/352/472, 108 OPS+
Johnson, ATL: 266/342/439, 108 OPS+
Brad Komminsk? Paul Householder
I remember Paul Householder, I remember how the Reds seemed to hype him endlessly (back then the Reds org had its head up its ass, but the media didn't realize it yet, memories of the big red machine were still fresh)
and now that I can look up minor league numbers- decent, not nearly as good as Komminsk's though...
I don't get the Householder comp, Komminsk I can see, his AAA comps mles were awesome (has anyone been a bigger bust when comparing mles to actual MLB performance?), but Householder? .295/.353/ .431 in AAA at age 21? .300/.367/.494 in AAA at age 22? Komminsk was at .276/.378/.524 in AA/AAA at 21, and .334/.433/.596 in the IL at age 22
Upton was at .309/.399/.556 in AA at age 19, .250/.353/.463 in the majors at 20 and .300/.366/.532 in the majors at 21
As I said, based on his MLEs I could see Komminsk being in that ballpark, but Householder?
Except that Zobrist has a projected 113 OPS+ while Johnson's is 108. He also considers Zobrist much better defensively.
1. Where are the stolen bases from Reynolds?
2. If CoJax puts up those numbers, that's a hell of a comeback.
It's not my fault that you think 108 > 113 and that FR defense > VG defense.
Or that 2009 was the first season ever that Zobrist was more valuable than Johnson.
Perhaps you'd be happier in a replay league, rather than a projection league. I mean, if you want to just play 2009, there are 2009 leagues out there.
What's scary about replay leagues is you always have an owner or wto who don't "get it"
Type A: Will pick players who they think will be good in real baseball IN THE FUTURE
Type B will draft the guy with the 125 career OPS+, coming off an injury riddled 95 OPS+ season, and then complain when he sucks...
I miss 2004.
How does one end up with Tommy John and Mike Lincoln as comps?
What's scary about replay leagues is you always have an owner or wto who don't "get it"
Well, I figure if ToC doesn't get it, then at least he'll do random ranting at Luke Kraemer instead of me.
what do you have Komminsk at for those ages?
From this clip from ZiPS, you can see it's definitely not John, considering John wasn't right-handed or pitching at 57.
What's up with Augenstein's ERA+?
Komminsk, 1983: 273/340/463, 114 OPS+
The strange thing about Komminsk is that he didn't hit well later in the minor leagues later, either (these are translations)
Komminsk, 1988: 224/301/404
Komminsk, 1989: 247/300/402
Komminsk, 1990: 232/293/280
Komminsk, 1991: 237/296/333
Komminsk, 1992: 235/314/370
Komminsk, 1993: 235/317/335
What's up with Augenstein's ERA+?
Clearly a typing error! Should be 96. I use DMB to print out reports, so if something is entered wrong in DMB, it'll come out wrong in the report as well.
I always assumed he had a career altering injury of some sort.
that haren projection is just off the charts.
Does your system just throw Greinke's 2009 out because it was too damn good to comprehend? :D
Seriously though, I didn't expect a Lincecum type projection and I didn't complain when I saw a couple of pitchers get slightly higher projections but I just don't get it. Don't get me wrong, you would be silly to expect him to duplicate his 2009 season but I certainly think he is being undervalued seeing some of the other projections. It obviously isn't as bad as last year when it projected Greinke to have an ERA+ of 110 (did an amazing job there, who could have seen that coming?) but why 63 points lower than he put up last year? You have 8 more systems to put out including some very good pitchers and we didn't see Halladay's projection because the Phillies list was already out. Does ZiPS even see him as a top 5 pitcher?
Here are starting pitchers, ranked by ERA+, minimum 162 innings, no Astros, A's, or Angels:
Lincecum
Haren
King Felix
Greinke
Halladay
Kershaw
Hanson
Santana
Webb
Sabathia
Vazquez
Lee
Billingsley
Zambrano
Jurrjens
Dempster
Wainwright
Cain
Lilly
Hamels
Jimenez
Verlander
Lester
Lackey
Shields
Garza
Harang
Nolasco
Wolf
Danks
Rowland-Smith
Kawakami
Blanton
Cook
Cueto
Lewis
E. Jackson
Lowe
Wells
Arroyo
Feldman
Correia
Garland
Weaver
Morton
Burnett
Pettitte
de la Rosa
Snell
Pineiro
Baker
Washburn
Buehrle
Lannan
Millwood
Maholm
Maloney
W. Davis
Zito
Blackburn
Floyd
Niemann
Richard
Volstad
Meche
Guthrie
Tillman
Hunter
Kendrick
Moyer
Haeger
Carmona
Duke
Pelfrey
Sowers
Romero
Davies
Suppan
Sonnanstine
Hochevar
L. Hernandez
Geer
I just don't buy Haren being better than Greinke in 2010. You also projected Bedard to be slightly better in less IP but that could go either way once DMB starts running. What is Carpenters projected ERA+? Guessing he didn't reach the innings criteria you set either.
Jurrjens surprises me a bit. He turns 24 years old next week but already has two very good (borderline excellent) MLB seasons under his belt and you have Vazquez ahead of him. Sure Vazquez was amazing last year but his career numbers would suggest to me that should have been thrown out as an extreme. He seems a prime candidate to regress to his normal 3.80 FIP if not worse given the move back into the Yankee rotation (we all remember how that went the first time correct?). Just an observation but ZiPS seems to greatly prefer power pitchers, I'm not saying I'd expect Jurrjens in the top 10 but it surprises me Lee isn't.
dan, is there any chance you're gonna start back up the conquestimentary group on facebook?
also, i do want to note that my questions related to the dodgers had nothing to do with my DMB league. they just didn't look right. same thing with kelly johnson.
League-adjusted as well, though I'm more conservative with league differences than some others.
Just an observation but ZiPS seems to greatly prefer power pitchers, I'm not saying I'd expect Jurrjens in the top 10 but it surprises me Lee isn't.
Top 10 in both leagues is pretty rarified air.
ZiPS does prefer power pitchers. That's simply because power pitchers age better and are less risky than finesse pitchers.
Edit: I guess I should add the Dodgers based on the projections they got but I don't expect the team to be nearly that good.
Zito
I think I'm insulted.
Any system is going to prefer the "elite" power pitchers ... and for good reason. Lots of Ks, few BBs, and, other than the occasional Jenkins or Roberts, solid to good HR rates -- what's not to love? And of course history backs that up.
Generally speaking, pitchers do far worse on BnIP than they do on BIP. The group with better results on BnIP are (generally speaking) the ones with very good K/BB rates. If a pitcher is better on BnIP than BIP, obviously you'd prefer they have a lower BIP rate -- i.e. high K pitchers with good K/BB rates. Just from a strict mathematical perspective, assuming minimal variation in BIP results across pitchers, better performance by such pitchers is unavoidable. (The BIP/BnIP distinction is, of course, as arbitrary as always.)
Now if a long-range projection system could sort out between the high-K, crappy control guys and the middling K, good control guys as to who will put it together, that would be something.
On the super-list, I'd guess that Kershaw and Hanson are too high (they're still too young for me to have that much faith in them), Vazquez is too high (but we know why this is) and the Dempster ranking has me some combination of stunned, delighted and highly skeptical.
That is what I'm curious about, will someone like Jurrjens always get a few points deducted because he doesn't K a lot? Are Lee's modest K numbers why he is not a top 10 pitcher?
Also, still curious what Carpenter's ERA+ is. I'm guessing he doesn't have the IP to make it on that list but I'm curious whether his ERA+ is higher than Greinke's.
A few points of what? And compared to what other projection method?
Anyway, a pitcher's ZiPS ERA projection is (mainly) a combination of his K, BB, HR and BABIP rates (with park and league adjustments). If Jurrjens has out-performed his xFIP the last few years, that would (probably) be because he's had a good BABIP rate -- something ZiPS gives him some credit for so he "gains" points there but possibly "not enough" due to how much BABIP rates bounce around. If he has been right on his xFIP the last few seasons, his ZiPS projection is going to come out spot on. If he's "under-performed" his xFIP the last few seasons, ZiPS is (if anything) likely to slightly over-project him.
Beyond that it's a matter of the fact that historically young high-K pitchers tend to develop a bit more than lower-K ones (for obvious reasons) and veteran high-K pitchers tend to age better than veteran lower-K pitchers (for not so obvious reasons). And ZiPS might have some body-type stuff in there too. So, yes, I suppose that if you had two pitchers with identical FIP performance and BABIP rates over the last 4 seasons but one of them had a significantly higher K-rate, that guy would get a slightly better projection due to those factors -- because that's what history tells us is the more likely outcome.
Are Lee's modest K numbers why he is not a top 10 pitcher?
Lee's ERA+ wasn't even close to the top 10 last year and even his 2008 ERA+ would have been 5th ... and the less said about his 2007, the better. I don't see any obvious reason to think Lee is one of the 10 best. Looking at that list, the only ones I might move him ahead of are Hanson and Kershaw (because I don't trust young pitchers) and Vazquez. There are also obvious questions about Webb's health but, from a talent perspective, I'll take Webb. So at best I can't see an argument for moving him more than from 12th to 8th -- which is a pretty pointless thing to argue about.
Kawakami is pretty high too. Though more surprising is the fact that you project him to more than 162 ip.
I am guessing the innings limit is why Hudson missed the cut?
EDIT : Dang, I was excited that the Braves projection must have been done if you included these guys. But none up yet. Guess Cubs and Cardinals are in the way too.
but we do anyway, cuz it's fun
Check the transaction oracle, I'm pretty sure Halladay was done already post-trade.
I've never been a big Haren fan, but he keeps proving me wrong.
-- MWE
Also remember, you're fairly new to this particular crowd and I think you're mistaking Walt being very matter-of-fact with him trying to take shots at you, which isn't his style at all.
Well I wont disagree with that, I haven't been posting very long. I only looked at the disk a few times before last year and, until recently, never voiced my disagreement with the numbers. So perhaps you are right, I'll apologize. I don't think it's the first post he has directed at me that gave me the feeling he was doing that though, in fact I think he did it in one of the earlier threads but apologized after I replied to him. /me shrugs
Thanks, and, again, I apologize if I jumped to conclusions too quickly with Walt's last post.
Oh, I have my moments.
Accuracy is important to us. But those of us who model know that 100% accuracy is impossible and high accuracy on an observation-by-observation basis is near impossible.
There's lots of random variation in this world and the fact is we will never know if the "8th" best pitcher is really better than the "12th" best pitcher because the difference in those point estimates is way smaller than any level of accuracy we are ever going to achieve. I also don't really see any real-world implications of why it would matter if he's the 8th or 12th or 15th best starter in baseball in 2010. (Note, there are real-world implications if he's been over- or under-projected by .25 runs per 9 but I don't see why it matters where he ranks.)
My pointed point to you would be that what you keep saying is the equivalent of "Dan, there's a lot of variation not explained by your model." To which Dan (and everyone else here) replies "Yeah, I know. Do you have any ideas of possible systematic explanations for some of that variance?" To which you are essentially replying "the guys I think have broken out are under-projected." To which the only reply, unfortunately, is "I'm afraid that doesn't help us at all."
So yes, jfish, you do sometimes annoy me because you say the same things repeatedly, don't really justify your positions (which would contribute to the discussion) and essentially are arguing in a dishonest fashion (probably unintentionally). And I do think it was you I did try to rip a new one for accusing Dan of not doing enough and not caring about his results (for which I have nothing to apologize for).
If you want to do this honestly, you have to explain why Lee should be in the top 10. As I pointed out, his ERA+ last year was 131 while the #10 ERA+ in MLB was 146 -- he wasn't close by that measure. His 2008 ERA was outstanding but still would have ranked only 5th in 2009 (and was 2nd in 2008). The year before that his ERA+ was 72. In 2009, he wasn't even top 10 in very many categories -- IP, starts, walk rate, K/BB. The least you could do is give us your top 10 starters, in order, and let us know what criteria you used to rank them.
For the record, I have no problem with folks expressing their opinion. If you want to say "I think Zobrist beats that projection" that's fine. I do this with ZiPS projections all the time (I just did so with Hanson and Kershaw); Dan used to do it a lot more but seems to have decided he's no smarter than ZiPS. But those are just opinions. Just because I don't trust young pitchers doesn't mean that the model underlying ZiPS is misspecified. You seem to think your opinion (sometimes backed by a media story) is evidence that ZiPS projections are "wrong." You seem to think it's absurd that Lee might be ranked "only" the 12th-best pitcher yet you don't even give us a reason why.
Another point is that many of your opinions hint at some ideas. You seem to think "break out years" are important. But the models already control for these to a great extent by weighting recent performance most heavily and there has been research done which suggests that such years have little/no extra predictive power. You've suggested incorporating scouting information -- every projection modeller would LOVE to have this information available to them but they don't.
You don't have to take these models on faith. You shouldn't take them on faith. I regularly point out that the error variance here is so large that these have very little value in terms of projecting individual players -- they are actuarial estimates and, in most cases, the best we can probably say is that player A is probably better than player B (and we're not talking with 95% confidence here). I don't have a problem with your skepticism, it's that neither your skepticism nor the model's known level of uncertainty make the model wrong.
I would've smacked him for his radar-like ability to instantly comment on who has a too-high BABIP (ducking).
Now Dan, I think I've been giving you a free ride on BA on-contact this offseason. I felt sorry for you after kicking your butt last year. :-) Kendrick? Soto? Really?
(I probably griped about Kemp too and I think you won that one)
Now Dan, I think I've been giving you a free ride on BA on-contact this offseason. I felt sorry for you after kicking your butt last year. :-) Kendrick? Soto? Really?
And I thought your favourite on-contact unearthing was BJ Upton.
And while we are at it, why does low K- high BB guy like Jurrjens get a good projection, while Zips is usually pessimistic on those types of pitchers?
And the Kawakami question was serious. I know you make no PT projections, but he pitched about 170 innings last year, and IRRC, that was his total in Japan the year previous to that. I might be wrong on that front.
No need to apologize, but that earlier post wasn't intended to be snarky. I honestly don't know what scale you were talking about points in nor was I clear what you were using for the "alternative" value. It's a mechanical point -- how can anyone answer a question about whether Lee gets docked a few points for being a lower-K pitcher without knowing what "baseline" value you're referring to.
For example, there's an intentionally simple projection system out there called Marcel. Marcel is just a simple 5/3/2 weighting of a player's previous 3 years -- in theory applicable to any metric I suppose. Then there's fancy Marcel which adds some sort of basic age adjustment. Marcel holds its own pretty well against the fancy models despite its simplicity.
So, does a high-K pitcher with a Marcel ERA+ projection of 115 come out better in ZiPS than a lower-K pitcher with a Marcel ERA+ projection of 115? Probably yes ... and probably rightly so. But this is one of the things that makes ZiPS somewhat more accurate a projection system than Marcel -- i.e. Marcel wasn't the "right" value to begin with so it's not clear we should be concerned that a projection system is shaving off a few points. But I doubt Marcel was what you had in mind.
As it turns out, doing Marcel in my head, I get an ERA+ projection for Lee of 131, exactly what he did last year. ZiPS projected him to a 138 (in Philly) and a 128 (in Seattle). Marcel of course ignores league differences which I suspect is the main difference in the projections.
What I suspect you're really asking is "if we have two pitchers with otherwise identical stats but different K-rates, would ZiPS give a better projection to the one with the higher K-rate?" And the answer to that (I assume) is yes for the reasons that Dan and I have outlined. Do you have a reason why that shouldn't be the case?
Old news. :-) But I'm not sure that ZiPS and I ever disagreed strongly about Upton, I think that was more an argument with everybody else. :-) My memory is that ZiPS has always been fairly reasonable on Upton, Braun, Howard, etc. I might have to take a look at that Reynolds projection above though. :-)
It was just bad luck really. The Angels were first out of the box last year and there was Kendrick with a projected 372 BABIP (not even BA on-contact) ... which Dan said surprised him too. (It wouldn't surprise me if it was the highest projected BABIP in ZiPS history). Then Soto checked in with a 383 BA on-contact which struck me as absurdly high for a C and I was off to the races. For a while I was thinking I'd spotted some flaw in ZiPS but I don't recall finding enough that I thought were really wacky to convince myself.
I checked and I didn't make any comment about Kemp in the Dodgers ZiPS thread. Lucky me. Dan had him at 380 (not unreasonable) and he actually finished at 385 so he certainly pegged it. But Kendrick was at 338 BABIP and Soto at a horrible 283 on-contact (which brings me no joy as a Cub fan)
Oh crap, I did say something about Braun. Ahh, ZiPS projected him to 385/781 on-contact (that does look silly); he actually hit 395/681 ... let's call that a draw.
And by the way jfish, those complaints I made about ZiPS projections were based on lots of time spent poking around looking at on-contact BA and SLG, especially for high-K hitters and I was seeing players projected at or near all-time historical performances (based on career, not season). I generally don't consider it reasonable for a model to project (as a "median" outcome) all-time greatness and was arguing that history was on my side. (Dan mainly countered by saying these rates are very age-dependent and that these weren't so extreme historically when controlling for age.)
What do you think is the flaw in your evaluation method that leads you to keep being wrong about Haren ?
Oh, there are always projections I disagree with, but I usually save it for other threads that the projections themselves.
I'm not Dan, but I believe for players who have been around long enough, I'm almost certain it's four years with an 8/5/4/2 weighting. Dan or someone else will hopefully correct me if I'm wrong.
vr, Xei
He projects LaRoche to a 122 OPS+, he had a 122 in 2008, and a 122 in 2009, for 2006-2009 he hit 120 overall
Chone has him at .272/.345/.482
Marcel at: .269/.344/.473 (and Marcel does not park adjust)
Pecota: don't know, my sub expired and i see no need to renew...
My guess is
1: Park factors
2: Dan has picked a different overall offense level than the other systems
To figure out Marcel's OPS+ for LaRoche I took Laroche's league context from bBREF for 2007-09 (weighing it 1-2-3) that gets me .336/.420, a .344/.473 line in such a context is an OPS+ of 115
context in Ariz last year was .351/.438, if you park adjust Marcel, their LaRoche projection would be something like: .359/.493, not a huge difference from Dan's projection
Wait a sec.
King Felix is THIRD??? I'd expect him first. No dig on Haren, I love him, but his stuff isn't as nasty as King Felix. But then agin...King Felix is in the AL. So that's impressive.
vr, Xei
He's a flyball pitcher playing in a HR friendly park yet who continues to allow a lower-than-anticipated number of HRs (just 11 at home last year). At some point I keep expecting that to catch up with him.
-- MWE
Both Lincecum and Haren play in hitters park. (Lincecum's plays a slight hitters park, while Haren plays in an above average hitters park.) While King Felix plays in a pitchers park.
I think we found the flaw in your analysis. You see, Dan Haren is not a FB pitcher.
Looking at Fangraphs leaderboard page for 2009, where Ted Lilly tops the list with a 50.6 % FB rate, Haren isn't even on the first page. His 36.7% FB rate ranks him 37th out of 77 ERA Qualified pitchers, and his GB% is higher than his FB% (42.9 to 36.7)
If you flip to 2008, you find the same thing. Haren isn't even on the first page of guys with the highest FB % . He's midway down the 2nd page, 51st out of 88 with a 34.6% FB rate, compared to a 44.2% Gb rate.
In his 3 years as a starter with the A's, his FB % ranged between 31%-38%, while his GB rates have held steady between 44-46%
Actually CHONE has LaRoche park adjusted to .345/.482 with Arizona. .837 is still a good deal lower than .883, but now it's 50 points of OPS instead of 100.
It will catch up to him the year you finally give up and decide that Haren has a unique ability to avoid giving up HRs, THAT year, his HR allowed with explode.
Happened to me with Al Soriano, every year I kept predicting that with his approach (as evidenced by his horrible k/bb), just the slightest decrease in his tools would be catastrophic, I gave up, decided I was wrong, and in my Roto league traded for him just before 2009...
What the heck are you guys talking about ? He has a completely neutral GB/FB profile, and his HR/FB ratio is virtually league avg throughout his career. 7.7 HR/FB ratio vs. lg avg 7.8. It was actually higher than league avg last year at 8.3%
There is absolutely NOTHING unique about Haren's ability to avoid giving up HR's.
Is just making #### up what passes for analysis around here ?
What, you don't like Pancake Flops?
I read this as "Al Scaduto". You traded for him a year after he died, you knew what you were getting.
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