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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, February 05, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves

As of now, the Braves are my personal darkhorse pick in the NL.  The infield should be solid, if unspectacular and while the outfield has been much criticized, there are enough bodies out there to patch an outfield good enough to keep from balancing out the strengths of the team.  Jason Heyward forcing his way onto the team as soon as possible would allow a Hinske/Diaz platoon and let Cabrera fill in the remainder of outfield at-bats, a task he’s qualified for.

Now, the team’s a darkhorse for a reason as the Braves seriously contending does require a little luck with injuries because the positions where the team is most susceptible to boo-boos.  Glaus missed almost the entire season with shoulder injuries and Jones is always an injury risk, but the team has very poor upper-minors depth at both positions.  The rotation, if the projected 1-5 plays, is very strong and Hanson/Jar-Jar could be the new Smoltz/Glavine, but the team’s 6-10 options on the mound aren’t the best and Tim Hudson is still coming off major surgery.

Offensive Projections

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS OPS+
Chipper Jones#        3b 38 .295 .402 .465 115 400 66 118 21 1 15 58 74 69 2 0   132
Brian McCann*        c   26 .288 .353 .497 144 511 66 147 36 1 23 95 50 81 2 0   125
Matt Diaz           rf 32 .307 .364 .463 113 322 43 99 16 2 10 43 22 71 6 2   120
Nate McLouth*        cf 28 .268 .355 .467 130 452 94 121 27 3 19 71 54 92 11 2   118
Troy Glaus           3b 33 .252 .358 .441 91 313 45 79 15 1 14 60 51 76 1 0   113
Yunel Escobar         ss 27 .294 .365 .416 142 531 82 156 28 2 11 67 54 74 4 4   109
Martin Prado         2b 26 .300 .351 .439 131 453 66 136 30 3 9 53 35 60 2 2   110
Jason Heyward*        rf 20 .275 .341 .429 119 448 69 123 25 4 12 53 45 85 6 1   105
Eric Hinske*        rf 32 .237 .328 .420 105 257 40 61 15 1 10 36 31 66 3 1   99
Mitch Jones         rf 32 .232 .307 .449 93 332 41 77 17 2 17 67 33 111 2 1   100
Garret Anderson*      lf 38 .281 .320 .417 113 420 49 118 22 1 11 57 26 68 2 1   96
Barbaro Canizares     1b 30 .271 .331 .396 107 409 43 111 22 1 9 53 35 65 1 1   94
Melky Cabrera#        cf 25 .272 .329 .399 155 519 60 141 28 4 10 61 43 65 11 3   94
Omar Infante         2b 28 .281 .333 .393 88 267 37 75 14 2 4 32 22 42 2 1   94
Wes Timmons         1b 30 .243 .354 .343 107 338 56 82 20 1 4 38 47 38 7 3   88
Freddie Freeman*      1b 20 .258 .321 .382 129 489 55 126 27 2 10 64 37 97 2 3   88
Joey Thurston*        2b 30 .266 .331 .375 130 429 58 114 22 5 5 48 36 67 8 6   89
Dave Ross           c   33 .222 .316 .389 73 198 25 44 9 0 8 24 27 61 0 0   88
Greg Norton#        1b 37 .235 .340 .343 102 166 19 39 7 1 3 25 26 41 1 0   84
Orlando Mercado       c   25 .251 .333 .350 87 283 26 71 14 1 4 42 34 41 0 1   84
Brooks Conrad#        2b 30 .230 .304 .396 139 512 82 118 29 4 16 74 51 141 5 1   86
Jordan Schafer*      cf 23 .227 .314 .367 74 264 33 60 12 2 7 26 33 89 5 2   82
Gregor Blanco*        cf 26 .245 .337 .317 138 477 74 117 17 4 3 38 65 107 13 7   77
Brent Clevlen         rf 26 .225 .289 .367 128 463 50 104 19 4 13 48 39 150 6 2   74
Juan Gonzalez         2b 28 .233 .311 .320 108 347 36 81 16 1 4 40 37 90 3 1   71
Diory Hernandez       ss 26 .253 .303 .346 117 431 42 109 21 2 5 48 26 80 7 7   74
Eric Duncan*        3b 25 .235 .282 .350 113 408 42 96 21 1 8 43 26 90 2 2   69
Luis Bolivar#        2b 29 .240 .285 .344 117 375 56 90 16 4 5 36 20 86 18 5   68
Clint Sammons         c   27 .236 .289 .333 100 351 35 83 16 0 6 37 24 83 4 1   66
Cody Johnson*        lf 21 .187 .260 .339 138 504 38 94 18 1 19 61 49 245 4 4   59

Defensive Projections

Name           CThr 1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Jones#                      Fr/103                      
McCann*        Fr                                      
Diaz                                   Av/90       Fr/119
McLouth*                                Av/71   Fr/71   Av/71  
Glaus             Av/80       Av/80                      
Escobar                 Av/97   Av/97   Av/97                  
Prado             Vg/103 Av/97   Av/77   Pr/87   Av/87            
Heyward*                                Vg/136 Fr/167 Vg/136
Hinske*            Av/101       Pr/125       Av/71       Av/71  
Jones             Fr/199                 Pr/104       Pr/104
Anderson*                                Av/79            
Canizares           Fr/152                                
Cabrera#                                Vg/108 Av/93   Vg/108
Infante                 Av/109 Av/107 Vg/157 Av/142 Av/142      
Timmons           Av/60   Fr/85   Av/60                      
Freeman*          Av/133                                
Thurston*                Av/105 Av/122       Vg/44   Fr/44      
Ross           Vg                                      
Norton#            Fr/184                 Fr/159       Pr/159
Mercado         Av   Fr/125                                
Conrad#            Av/112 Av/134 Av/112 Pr/163 Av/112       Av/112
Schafer*                                Av/72   Av/72   Av/72  
Blanco*                                Vg/145 Av/123 Vg/145
Clevlen                                 Vg/159 Fr/138 Vg/159
Gonzalez                 Fr/139 Av/118 Fr/118                
Hernandez               Av/110 Vg/126 Av/116                
Duncan*            Fr/130       Fr/163       Fr/130       Fr/130
Bolivar#          Av/118 Fr/118 Av/118 Fr/118 Av/118       Av/118
Sammons         Av                                      
Johnson*                                Fr/180            

* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name           PO   EX   VG   AV   FR   PO       COMP 1       COMP 2       COMP 3
JonesChipper     3B   67%  27%  5%  1%  0%    DavisChili   BainesHarold   McGriffFred
McCannBrian       C   73%  21%  4%  1%  0%    NilssonDave SteinbachTerry MartinezVictor
DiazMatt       RF   24%  35%  20%  14%  7%      WardGaryWashingtonClaude   KellyRoberto
McLouthNate     CF   55%  23%  15%  6%  1%    MooreTerry WyrostekJohnny     BakerDusty
PradoMartin     2B   37%  21%  18%  15%  9%    HillAaron     CashDave     AdairJerry
GlausTroy       3B   17%  40%  28%  11%  3%    MantoJeff PetrocelliRico   VenturaRobin
EscobarYunel     SS   44%  28%  19%  7%  2%    LoganJohnny   ApplingLuke   TravisCecil
HeywardJason     RF   7%  22%  24%  27%  21%  WhiteRondellHollandsworthTod   MarkakisNick
AndersonGarret   LF   3%  10%  14%  24%  49%    JordanBrian   SierraRuben     GriffeyKen
InfanteOmar     2B   11%  16%  22%  28%  23%    GriffinDoug   SanchezFreddy     FonsecaLew
CanizaresBarbaro   1B   2%  5%  10%  31%  52%      GallJohn     BowieJim   RollinsRich
ThurstonJoe     2B   5%  7%  14%  28%  46% MorandiniMickey AndersonMarlon     TaylorTony
FreemanFreddie   1B   0%  1%  3%  19%  76%    LoneyJames       DeSaJoeMelendezFrancisco
TimmonsWes       1B   0%  3%  5%  23%  69%    KammWillie   SuttonLarry   JohnsonRuss
ConradBrooks     2B   8%  9%  15%  26%  43%      YoungPep   SheldonScott   ValentinJose
RossDave         C   5%  20%  29%  32%  14%    TriandosGus   SeminickAndy     BrenlyBob
NortonGreg       1B   0%  1%  2%  17%  80%  MuellerHeinie   PrideCurtis   GonzalesRene
SchaferJordan     CF   2%  3%  9%  26%  60%    JavierStan     ReidJessie KnabenshueChris
BlancoGregor     CF   0%  1%  6%  22%  70%    ButlerBrett   RobertsDave   ManningRick
MazaLuis       2B   0%  1%  3%  13%  82%  CarrollJamey   CairoMiguel   MorrisWarren
HernandezDiory   SS   0%  2%  7%  23%  67%  PolcovichKevin     MaurerRon   VelandiaJorge
SammonsClint     C   0%  1%  4%  19%  75%  DifeliceMike     KratzErik   MoralesWillie
JohnsonCody     LF   0%  0%  0%  1%  99%  WilliamsJuan     HodgeTim     HustGary

Name         .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB
JonesChipper       44%    82%    23%    30%    0%    0%    2%    0%
McCannBrian       34%    23%    47%    23%    16%    0%    19%    0%
DiazMatt         60%    35%    20%    12%    0%    0%    0%    0%
McLouthNate       13%    23%    22%    12%    1%    0%    7%    0%
PradoMartin       49%    19%    9%    7%    3%    0%    0%    0%
GlausTroy         6%    28%    10%    6%    0%    0%    1%    0%
EscobarYunel       41%    36%    5%    5%    2%    0%    0%    0%
HeywardJason       17%    11%    5%    2%    0%    1%    0%    0%
AndersonGarret     29%    4%    8%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
InfanteOmar       30%    11%    1%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
CanizaresBarbaro     16%    7%    2%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ThurstonJoe       11%    6%    0%    0%    0%    7%    0%    0%
FreemanFreddie       6%    2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
TimmonsWes         3%    21%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
ConradBrooks       1%    1%    3%    1%    1%    2%    2%    0%
RossDave           2%    7%    6%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
NortonGreg         6%    24%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SchaferJordan       2%    3%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
BlancoGregor       2%    8%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
MazaLuis           6%    1%    0%    0%    0%    1%    0%    0%
HernandezDiory       4%    1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
SammonsClint       1%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%
JohnsonCody         0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    0%    3%    0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Thomas Hanson         23   3.19 14   7 31 31   172.1 141   61 17   68 177 136
Jair Jurrjens         24   3.46 16   9 34 34   208.0 196   80 15   73 162 125
Tim Hudson           34   3.94   8   5 19 19   112.0 118   49   9   30   65 115
Kenshin Kawakami       35   3.94 11   9 28 23   166.2 164   73 19   50 127 110
Derek Lowe           37   4.05 13 11 32 32   188.2 200   85 15   55 125 107
Jose Ortegano*        22   4.90   6   7 26 19   101.0 111   55 10   44   70   92
Scott Diamond*        23   5.09   7 10 25 25   138.0 157   78 14   65   87   89
James Parr           24   5.11   4   5 22 16   91.2 102   52 13   34   62   88
Jo-Jo Reyes*          25   5.21   4   6 19 18   95.0 102   55 13   48   69   87
Edgar Osuna*          22   5.28   7 10 29 22   134.2 156   79 19   50   83   85
Tom Glavine*          44   5.34   4   6 18 18   97.2 114   58 14   39   48   84
Francisley Bueno*      29   5.38   3   4 28 12   78.2   94   47 10   33   46   84
Jonny Venters*        25   5.42   5   7 21 18   96.1 108   58 10   58   55   83
Todd Redmond         25   5.76   6 11 28 27   148.1 177   95 27   51   90   78

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K ERA+
Takashi Saito         40   2.72   5   1 52   0   53.0   42   16   5   19   56 161
Billy Wagner*        38   3.00   2   1 37   0   36.0   29   12   3   11   44 150
Peter Moylan         31   3.60   4   2 62   0   55.0   51   22   4   24   44 125
Kris Medlen           24   4.31   8   7 42 13   108.2 112   52 11   40 101 105
Eric O’Flaherty*      25   4.32   2   2 61   0   50.0   51   24   4   19   38 104
Craig Kimbrel         22   4.35   2   2 37   0   41.1   36   20   4   30   48 104
Buddy Carlyle         32   4.66   4   4 34   8   73.1   78   38   9   26   59   97
Manny Acosta         29   4.71   4   4 56   1   65.0   67   34   7   37   51   96
Scott Proctor         33   4.73   2   2 44   0   45.2   46   24   6   24   38   95
Cory Gearrin         24   4.78   3   4 45   0   49.0   50   26   6   26   42   94
Jesse Chavez         26   4.78   3   3 68   0   75.1   80   40 10   28   60   91
Luis Valdez           26   4.88   5   6 66   0   86.2   94   47   9   42   69   92
Mariano Gomez*        27   4.96   4   5 52   0   65.1   71   36   7   32   39   91
Vladimir Nunez         35   5.12   3   4 44   4   82.2   88   47 10   45   61   88
Michael Dunn*        25   5.21   3   5 44   0   76.0   75   44   9   56   73   88
Stephen Marek         26   5.27   4   5 51   0   54.2   56   32   6   37   46   86

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player         PO     TOP   MID   BOT         COMP 1         COMP 2         COMP 3
HansonTommy     SP     93%  7%  0%    MartinezRamon     SmoltzJohn     YoumansFloyd
JurrjensJair     SP     88%  11%  1%      MadduxGreg IsringhausenJason       StiebDave
MoylanPeter     RP     60%  35%  4%      RiveraSaul       PowerTed     BaileyCory
HudsonTim       SP     66%  30%  3%      GarciaMike       LoweDerek   GalehouseDenny
KawakamiKenshin   SP     46%  51%  3%    TapaniKevin   SaberhagenBret   WilliamsWoody
LoweDerek       SP     38%  49%  14%    TewksburyBob     TapaniKevin     MorganMike
MedlenKris       SP     17%  64%  19%      AllenNeil     RobinsonDon     FisherBrian
O’FlahertyEric   RP     29%  47%  24%      OlwineEd     MoloneyBill   von OhlenDave
KimbrelCraig     RP     26%  43%  31%      ClearMark     LittellMark       PlunkEric
CarlyleBuddy     RP     10%  50%  40%    MeachamRusty     LeiterMark     NicholsRod
AcostaManny     RP     10%  46%  44%    PisciottaMarc     CorcoranRoy       LugoRuddy
ProctorScott     RP     11%  42%  46%    BochtlerDoug     HarrisGreg       WadeBen
GearrinCory     RP     10%  39%  52%      ShadeMike     BlasucciTony     SempriniJohn
ValdezLuis       RP     3%  41%  55% SlocumbHeathcliff   BravoFranklin     HannahsGerry
OrteganoJose     SP     16%  51%  33%      McGrawTom   AndersonAllan   CiccarellaJoe
GomezMariano     RP     5%  34%  61%  CumberlandChris   BarzillaPhilip   FerrariAnthony
DiamondScott     SP     7%  50%  43%    DanielsJohn     ChapmanJake   ThompsonDerek
ParrJames       SP     12%  46%  42%  KlingenbeckScott   FarnsworthKyle       ClarkMark
NunezVladimir     RP     6%  29%  65%      MahomesPat     JonesOdell       BrowerJim
LymanJeff       RP     3%  33%  64% SlocumbHeathcliff       WelchBob     LangdonTed
ReyesJo-Jo       SP     7%  42%  51%      RedmanMark       SmithZane   de la RosaJorge
MarekStephen     RP     4%  26%  70%      BanksJosh       ShadeMike     SikarasPete
OsunaEdgar       SP     3%  39%  58%  LorraineAndrew     MalaskaMark     ManningDerek
GlavineTom       SP     7%  35%  58%    FlanaganMike   WhitehillEarl     TananaFrank
BuenoFrancisley   SP     1%  22%  77%      OttoDave   MusselmanJeff       LeeRobert
VentersJonathan   SP     3%  32%  65%    ThompsonDerek       KubesGreg     AllenHarold
AbreuJuan       RP     4%  26%  70%    SchroderChris       GiardKen     SimpsonAllan
RedmondTodd     SP     0%  18%  81%    FranklinRyan     GuerraMark   AveretteRobert
CofieldKyle     SP     0%  9%  91%      MorelEdwin   PhillipsJason     LaxtonBrett

Player         130 ERA+  100 ERA+  K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9

<1
HansonTommy 67% 99% 89% 0% 74%
JurrjensJair 46% 97% 10% 1% 95%
MoylanPeter 52% 90% 19% 1% 91%
HudsonTim 31% 84% 1% 26% 90%
KawakamiKenshin 10% 77% 5% 7% 44%
LoweDerek 11% 61% 6% 14% 88%
MedlenKris 14% 70% 63% 1% 73%
O'FlahertyEric 22% 69% 12% 3% 89%
KimbrelCraig 19% 61% 94% 0% 75%
CarlyleBuddy 7% 53% 22% 3% 40%
AcostaManny 7% 42% 14% 0% 61%
ProctorScott 8% 37% 35% 0% 42%
GearrinCory 10% 40% 35% 0% 45%
ValdezLuis 2% 33% 16% 0% 66%
OrteganoJose 3% 32% 2% 0% 66%
GomezMariano 4% 33% 2% 0% 60%
DiamondScott 0% 21% 1% 0% 62%
ParrJames 1% 27% 1% 1% 24%
NunezVladimir 4% 26% 11% 0% 48%
LymanJeff 2% 23% 10% 0% 66%
ReyesJo-Jo 1% 21% 3% 0% 36%
MarekStephen 3% 24% 29% 0% 55%
OsunaEdgar 0% 11% 0% 1% 27%
GlavineTom 1% 20% 0% 2% 39%
BuenoFrancisley 1% 15% 1% 0% 51%
VentersJonathan 0% 11% 0% 0% 69%
AbreuJuan 2% 17% 55% 0% 44%
RedmondTodd 0% 3% 0% 1% 5%
CofieldKyle 0% 1% 0% 0% 57%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player         W   L   S   ERA     G   GS   IP     H   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
HudsonTim       193   116   0 3.66   429   428 2749   2702   223   832   1804   121
JurrjensJair     207   145   0 3.78   480   482 2892   2815   265   1068   2178   118
LoweDerek       188   160   85 3.97   687   408 2830   2914   233   812   1821   114

Name           BA OBP SLG   G   AB     R     H   2B 3B   HR RBI   BB   SO SB CS OPS+
McCannBrian     .279 .346 .471 2307 8122   998   2270 532 11 335 1433   803   1363 30   3 116
EscobarYunel   .287 .360 .401 1933 7204   1088   2067 356 22 141 857   745   1072 51 55 104
GlausTroy     .253 .356 .475 1962 6930   1098   1751 362 14 383 1182 1090   1758 57 29 116
JonesChipper   .305 .405 .526 2594 9322   1697   2842 547 41 479 1654 1610   1498 150 44 141
McLouthNate     .255 .339 .434 1726 5867   1131   1495 333 30 220 802   655   1227 159 26 105
AndersonGarret   .293 .325 .460 2418 9490   1191   2782 569 38 311 1487   486   1360 84 50 103

All figures in % based on projection playing time

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

 

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees




These projections were sponsored in part by:

image

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 05, 2010 at 04:31 PM | 63 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. bigglou115 Posted: February 05, 2010 at 04:58 PM (#3454680)
I wonder how well Medlen's projection would translate to starting. I imagine that he's probably #6 in this rotation.
   2. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 05, 2010 at 05:01 PM (#3454684)
Missing Yunel's offensive projection.
   3. RJ in TO Posted: February 05, 2010 at 05:02 PM (#3454686)
That's a really nice career line for McCann.
   4. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: February 05, 2010 at 05:07 PM (#3454691)
Nice projection for Hanson.
   5. Rays&Sox; Posted: February 05, 2010 at 05:12 PM (#3454700)
Since Soriano moved to the Rays after their projections were posted, can we get his projection here?
   6. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 05, 2010 at 05:18 PM (#3454708)
Jurrjens' comps: Mad Dog, Izzy, and Stieb. Not shabby...
   7. bigglou115 Posted: February 05, 2010 at 05:34 PM (#3454724)
Nice projection for Hanson.


Yeah, 0% chance of being in the bottom group for a 23 YO entering his first full big league season? That's pretty sick.
   8. Maxwn Posted: February 05, 2010 at 05:39 PM (#3454729)
I believe Yunel Escobar got left out of the offensive and defensive projections at the top. He's in the ODDIBE part but not in the top two charts.
   9. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 05, 2010 at 05:42 PM (#3454732)
Saito and Wagner are missing from the ODDIBE sections.

Also, these projections are heartening.

Also, also, I cringe to see Garret Anderson still affiliated with the Braves.

Also, also, also, Edgar Osuna is on the Royals for the time being as a Rule 5 pick.
   10. Maxwn Posted: February 05, 2010 at 05:45 PM (#3454734)
Also, also, I cringe to see Garret Anderson still affiliated with the Braves.

This.
   11. maverickdmb Posted: February 05, 2010 at 05:58 PM (#3454746)
Does Javier Vazquez have a projection yet? Since he became a Yankee after their projections were done and is no longer a Brave I figure this is a good time to ask.
   12. BobbyS Posted: February 05, 2010 at 06:24 PM (#3454770)
Since Soriano moved to the Rays after their projections were posted, can we get his projection here?


Same with Gonzalez after signing with the O's? Or some sweet separet TOs!

Braves look pretty good. I like the projection on Heyward, he'll be getting his chance to play every day now, and I think that's a pretty fair line for him,
   13. Accent Shallow Posted: February 05, 2010 at 06:33 PM (#3454779)
Wow, ZiPS loves Hanson. I'll take the under on that ERA+.
   14. BobbyS Posted: February 05, 2010 at 06:45 PM (#3454789)
Or some sweet separet TOs!


Er, separate. That was an ugly typo.
   15. Banta Posted: February 05, 2010 at 06:46 PM (#3454790)
Hey Dan, do you have any idea when you'll have this years Zips spreadsheets available? Thanks in advance.
   16. threepointpi Posted: February 05, 2010 at 07:11 PM (#3454803)
I like nearly every projection on here. Only 2 I don't like=Derek Lowe and Kris Medlen, I thought ZiPS might like them a little more than it does.
   17. Danny Posted: February 05, 2010 at 07:32 PM (#3454823)
That's a healthy jump in K/9 for Jurrjens (6.3 career, 6.4 last year, 7.0 ZIPS). What's his projected BABIP?

He's been pulling a Zito the past couple years with a low BABIP and a low HR/FB rate.
   18. Mike Green Posted: February 05, 2010 at 07:54 PM (#3454845)
Yunel Escobar is missing.

Excellent analysis, Dan. If Glaus and four of the starters are healthy, this club should be right there in September.
   19. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: February 05, 2010 at 08:02 PM (#3454850)
Hey, is Yunel Escobar's projection missing? Why is no one talking about this?
   20. Honkie Kong Posted: February 05, 2010 at 08:11 PM (#3454854)
Aint that a dandy set of comparables for Jurrjens?
IRRC, his #1 age comparison last year was Roger Clemens. I looked up their age 22 seasons on b-r. Were almost carbon copies. But Roger had a huge spike in the K rate starting the next year. Jurrjens obviously didn't, though ZiPS seems optimistic on that count.

This team has to have among the higher exposure to injuries. Their key hitters are old and injury prone( Glaus, Chipper ) or a catcher ( McCann ). And their best pitchers are starters under the age of 25. They could win the division or battle with the Gnats for last place.
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 05, 2010 at 08:24 PM (#3454858)
Yunel's in there now.

Gonzalez BAL - 3-2, 4.11 (ERA+ 111), 50.1 IP, 46 H, 7 HR, 22 BB, 54 K.

Soriano TB - 3-1, 3.25 (ERA+ 137), 55.1 IP, 44 H, 6 HR, 20 BB, 61 K.

Sorry about rather piss-poor transaction coverage this year. As I explained in another entry, I got very little done for about 6 weeks while I was very ill.
   22. maverickdmb Posted: February 05, 2010 at 08:40 PM (#3454876)
What about Vazquez's projection?
   23. Mike Green Posted: February 05, 2010 at 08:41 PM (#3454877)
Lowe is one of Hudson's comps, but Hudson isn't one of Lowe's. Recount.:)
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 05, 2010 at 08:54 PM (#3454885)
Vazquez NYA - 17-8, 3.53 (ERA+ 129), 209.1 IP, 192 H, 23 HR, 50 BB, 197 K.

ZiPS has always loved Vazquez.
   25. Willie Mayspedester Posted: February 05, 2010 at 09:04 PM (#3454892)
Brian McCann 30 career SB to 3 CS wow! He really gets the most out of his "speed".
   26. Rays&Sox; Posted: February 05, 2010 at 09:05 PM (#3454894)
Thanks Dan. I appreciate it.
   27. Boxkutter Posted: February 05, 2010 at 09:11 PM (#3454898)
Wow, ZiPS loves Hanson. I'll take the under on that ERA+.


Awesome, because I definitely want the over. I like Hanson, but I just think it's pretty unlikely for him to put up an ERA under 3.20 in his first full season in the majors now that teams have more time to scout and prepare for him. I mean, he's not Tim Lincecum for Christ's sake ;)
   28. BobbyS Posted: February 05, 2010 at 09:13 PM (#3454900)
Gonzalez BAL - 3-2, 4.11 (ERA+ 111), 50.1 IP, 46 H, 7 HR, 22 BB, 54 K.

Soriano TB - 3-1, 3.25 (ERA+ 137), 55.1 IP, 44 H, 6 HR, 20 BB, 61 K.


Thanks for the quick response, appreciate it!

I didn't know BAL makes pitchers digress that much :-/
   29. flournoy Posted: February 05, 2010 at 09:16 PM (#3454903)
Brian McCann 30 career SB to 3 CS wow! He really gets the most out of his "speed".


That one is a pretty tough sell to me. He's already 12 SB to 3 CS so far. I can buy 18 more stolen bases for him during his career, but not zero more caught stealings.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 05, 2010 at 09:26 PM (#3454906)
That should be 30-13. There's a 1 missing.
   31. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 05, 2010 at 09:43 PM (#3454921)
Awesome, because I definitely want the over. I like Hanson, but I just think it's pretty unlikely for him to put up an ERA under 3.20 in his first full season in the majors now that teams have more time to scout and prepare for him. I mean, he's not Tim Lincecum for Christ's sake ;)


I think you misinterpreted what was meant by "under."
   32. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 05, 2010 at 10:07 PM (#3454951)
Hey Dan, Yunel's projection is no longer missing. FYI.
   33. BobbyS Posted: February 05, 2010 at 10:07 PM (#3454954)
Would it be possible to get a quick glance at the ZiPS for Kelvim Escobar as well? With all that missed time, and change of leagues, he's an interesting one.
   34. Ziggy Posted: February 05, 2010 at 10:07 PM (#3454956)
Is Saito going to be the closer?
   35. Honkie Kong Posted: February 05, 2010 at 10:37 PM (#3454988)
Thats a nice projection for Yunel, and that Luke Appling comp is good, if the Braves ever make the World Series! :)

So Saito and Wagner project to be way better than Soriano / Gonzalez for half the cost. One of those offseason moves I wasn't a fan of , but ZiPS likes it.

And also this. Funniest projection line after Chad Fox.

Cody Johnson* lf 21 .187 .260 .339 138 504 38 94 18 1 19 61 49 245 4 4 59

245 Ks! :)
   36. jfish26101 Posted: February 06, 2010 at 12:09 AM (#3455070)
Wow, must say I'm pretty surprised by several of these. Hanson had an amazing season and was a top prospect but a projected ERA+ 6 points below Greinke? That seems awfully optimistic or perhaps just shows again how much Greinke is underrated by the model.

Saito/Wagner and Gonzalez/Soriano surprises me as well, especially Wagner and Gonzalez. Of course Wagner's projected IP are very low but it's still surprising.

Glaus is a pleasant surprise, I'd take that at 1B definitely. I thought Hinske would be better but looking at him I guess I didn't really have a good reason for thinking that. Haha

Prado's defense surprises me a little at 2B, I thought he would have a Fr range rating and an error rating just below 100. I just don't think he is an average fielder at 2B.

Lowe and Kawakami got better projections than I thought they would, rotation really looks good with some combination of Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson, Lowe, and Kawakami.

How many wins do you project this team to have? Phillies are probably still better but I think if those 2 teams (as projected) went up against each other head to head it would be pretty even.
   37. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: February 06, 2010 at 12:25 AM (#3455078)
I saw Hanson pitch about 5 innings last year so I can very confidently say he ain't all that.
   38. flournoy Posted: February 06, 2010 at 12:42 AM (#3455091)
Hanson is probably the best pitcher since Lefty Grove, so the projection here is probably a little low.

So the numbers after the slash following the defensive ratings are "error ratings?" How does that work?
   39. jfish26101 Posted: February 06, 2010 at 12:44 AM (#3455092)
Hanson is probably the best pitcher since Lefty Grove, so the projection here is probably a little low.


Hanson is the best pitcher since 1940? I hope that was sarcasm that I just failed to pick up on because that is a ridiculous statement to make at this stage of his career.
   40. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 06, 2010 at 01:08 AM (#3455100)
Wow, must say I'm pretty surprised by several of these. Hanson had an amazing season and was a top prospect but a projected ERA+ 6 points below Greinke? That seems awfully optimistic or perhaps just shows again how much Greinke is underrated by the model.

Don't forget, Greinke's also in the harder league and a team with a pretty lousy defense.
   41. DCA Posted: February 06, 2010 at 01:26 AM (#3455105)
Gregor Blanco's comps are pretty good.
   42. Tuque Posted: February 06, 2010 at 01:26 AM (#3455106)
Hanson is the best pitcher since 1940? I hope that was sarcasm that I just failed to pick up on because that is a ridiculous statement to make at this stage of his career.

I actually think that underrates his talents. I personally think he will near-probably be the greatest pitcher of all time. How often do people his age post seasons like last year's?
   43. this space for rent Posted: February 06, 2010 at 01:27 AM (#3455107)
So the numbers after the slash following the defensive ratings are "error ratings?" How does that work?


DMB breaks fielding into two ratings: "playmaking" (rated Pr, Fr, Av, Vg, Ex) and "error rate."

The latter is just the player's normalized rate of making errors; 100 is average, 150 is 50% more errors than average, etc.

So a typical Av/97 fielder is just barely above average overall, although that Av rating is something like a 12 run range, so Dan could be pegging Prado anywhere from +7 to -6 or so.

On that note: Dan, I love me some DMB, but for projection purposes I'd rather see something more UZR-ish with a run value rather than just a range rating - that way we know if two guys who are rated Av/100 and Fr/100 are 2 runs apart or 20...
   44. jfish26101 Posted: February 06, 2010 at 01:28 AM (#3455108)
I actually think that underrates his talents. I personally think he will near-probably be the greatest pitcher of all time. How often do people his age post seasons like last year's?

That has to be sarcasm. :D

Don't forget, Greinke's also in the harder league and a team with a pretty lousy defense.

How much difference do you think a good defense would make in Greinke's case? Like I've said before, I never expected a 200 ERA+ like he posted last year but 142 and seeing some of the others really surprises me. I know Greinke is in the more difficult league but that makes what he did last year that much more impressive.
   45. Honkie Kong Posted: February 06, 2010 at 01:37 AM (#3455114)
I am curious about the defensive ratings, as to where you build them from. For example, plus minus had Yunel as a super freaky defender in 2008, and pretty good in 2009 ( Anecdotally, he was carrying some injuries in the first half, and some attitude issues, before a couple of Andruw style benchings led to a very steady defensive second half ). Even with the injuries, he posted a good plus/minus if I remember correctly.

As I said, just curious about the methodology, as defensive ratings are notoriously volatile.
   46. Tuque Posted: February 06, 2010 at 01:44 AM (#3455118)
That has to be sarcasm. :D

How do YOU know?

But probably, yes.
   47. Accent Shallow Posted: February 06, 2010 at 01:44 AM (#3455119)
Awesome, because I definitely want the over. I like Hanson, but I just think it's pretty unlikely for him to put up an ERA under 3.20 in his first full season in the majors now that teams have more time to scout and prepare for him. I mean, he's not Tim Lincecum for Christ's sake ;)


Yeah, as Mr. Jones noted lower in the thread, I meant "a lower ERA+, and thus a higher ERA". Too bad, because I am very pro-BR sponsorship.
   48. flournoy Posted: February 06, 2010 at 01:50 AM (#3455123)
Okay, fine, so not the best pitcher since Grove. Since Spahn, then, maybe?
   49. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 06, 2010 at 02:02 AM (#3455130)
Hanson is the best pitcher since 1940? I hope that was sarcasm that I just failed to pick up on because that is a ridiculous statement to make at this stage of his career.


Actually, it's irony, not sarcasm.

/pedantic jerk again
   50. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: February 06, 2010 at 02:09 AM (#3455131)
Gregor Blanco is such a fun, weird player. I'd like to see some team give him 150 games and 500+ at-bats, just to see what would happen. I just don't want that team to be the Braves.
   51. PreservedFish Posted: February 06, 2010 at 02:11 AM (#3455134)
Actually, it's irony, not sarcasm.

/pedantic jerk again



Can you explain the difference? It has always confused me.
   52. flournoy Posted: February 06, 2010 at 02:12 AM (#3455135)
What's especially fun about Blanco? Dan projects him to have 24 extra base hits in 2010, which is about 22 more than I'd expect. I don't think he'll ever match his 2008 walk rate, either.

Though if he did, I guess that could be the fun part. .250/.350/.300 is a pretty weird line.
   53. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 06, 2010 at 02:13 AM (#3455136)
I think it's like rectangles and squares. All squares are rectangles, but not all squares are rectangles.

My understanding is that sarcasm always has a derisive intent, but irony does not.
   54. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 06, 2010 at 02:25 AM (#3455138)
In the NL, Greinke projection in the 145-155 range.
   55. jfish26101 Posted: February 06, 2010 at 02:34 AM (#3455142)
So how many wins are the Braves projected to have? Seems like a very solid team across the board (offense, defense, SP and RP). Seems like it would be the third highest in the NL behind the Dodgers/Phillies.
   56. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: February 06, 2010 at 06:12 PM (#3455322)
What's especially fun about Blanco? Dan projects him to have 24 extra base hits in 2010, which is about 22 more than I'd expect. I don't think he'll ever match his 2008 walk rate, either.


He hit .251/.366/.309 with 74 walks and 99 strikeouts in 430 at-bats. Basically, Gregor Blanco is what happens when a hitter decides he won't swing until the count is 3-2. He's a slap hitting hitting speedster who strikes out like a power hitter. That sort of stubbornness is a validation of the human spirit.
   57. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: February 06, 2010 at 06:20 PM (#3455326)
Can you explain the difference? It has always confused me.

Being sarcastic is saying "Oh, it's such a lovely day outside," when it's cold and rainy and miserable. Irony is having 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife.
   58.   Posted: February 06, 2010 at 07:03 PM (#3455343)

I think it's like rectangles and squares. All squares are rectangles, but not all squares are rectangles.


You botched that, but yeah, sarcasm is a form of verbal irony.
   59. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: February 06, 2010 at 11:47 PM (#3455465)
I'll take the over on: Glaus, Escobar & Tim Hudson

I'll take the under on: Hanson, Martin Prado

I don't know if Jason Heyward will be over or under, but my gut instinct for him is that he'll either under-perform or destroy that line. If he doesn't falter badly with the ML transition - i.e. he plays in Atlanta and doesn't post 85ish OPS+ - he'll post a 120 or higher.
   60. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 06, 2010 at 11:52 PM (#3455467)
You botched that, but yeah, sarcasm is a form of verbal irony.


I certainly did, didn't I?
   61. Colin Posted: February 08, 2010 at 04:48 AM (#3455852)
Odd that Hanson is projected to pitch so well, but only average 5.5 IP/start.
   62.   Posted: February 08, 2010 at 04:51 AM (#3455854)
Heh
   63. kwarren Posted: February 10, 2010 at 01:12 AM (#3457387)
Hanson is the best pitcher since 1940? I hope that was sarcasm that I just failed to pick up on because that is a ridiculous statement to make at this stage of his career.



Actually, it's irony, not sarcasm.

/pedantic jerk again


It's hyperbole, not sarcasm or irony

(another pedantic jerk)

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